01/12/2017 BBC Business Live


01/12/2017

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This is Business Live

from BBC News with Susannah

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Streeter and David Eades.

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America edges closer

to massive tax reforms,

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but will they really deliver

President Trump's promised boost

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to the world's biggest economy?

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Live from London, that's our top

story on Friday 1st December.

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As the President lights

up the Christmas tree,

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he's hoping Senators give him

the gift he wants -

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but can the US really afford

the biggest tax changes

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in a generation?

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Also in the programme...

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The world's largest lithium ion

battery gets up-and-running

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in Australia, so will it spark

a global energy revolution?

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And as always we will get

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And as always we will get the latest

from the global markets, this is the

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picture in Europe as the markets

open.

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And we'll be getting

the inside track on the bumpy ride

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Uber have been on this week,

as well as Bitcoin's

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rollercoaster ride, with our tech

guru Rory Cellan Jones.

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December is finally upon us,

and this weekend is set

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to the busiest for Christmas tree

sales here in the UK,

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but amid warnings that

glittery decorations are bad

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for the environment -

we want to know

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if you use the same ones every

year or buy them new?

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Let us know - just use

the hashtag #BBCBizLive.

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Hello, and welcome

to Business Live.

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The United States is on course

for it's largest tax reforms in more

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than 30 years but hasn't quite

got there yet.

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If last-minute disagreements can be

overcome, President Trump's big hope

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is that the refrorms will boost

growth for the world's

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biggest economy.

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And that could eventually make

the rest of the world richer, too.

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Firstly, it will be very expensive -

costing the Government $1.5 trillion

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over the next decade.

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Some of that is expected to be

offset by higher economic growth,

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but most would be added to the US

national debt - already

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at $20 trillion.

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That is what is still bothering

some in the Senate.

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Who would benefit?

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The big winners would be US firms,

who would see the corporation tax

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rate slashed from 35% to around 20%.

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The White House claims

the average American household

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would also be better off

by between $4,000 and $9,000 a year.

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But some critics say the plan really

favours the wealthy.

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Others dispute the idea that

a handout to firms will trickle down

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to the wider economy.

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Not including the banks,

US companies are already sitting

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on $1.9 trillion cash piles.

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And some have said they'd use

tax cuts to give more

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money to shareholders.

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Pippa Malmgren used to be

an economic adviser

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to President George W Bush

and founder of the business advisors

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DRPM research group.

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Thank you for joining us. There are

huge questions there, an awful lot

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of money to spend effectively for

these tax cuts. How far, assuming

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this all goes through, how far could

they weaken that through improved

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tax revenues?

Well, the Republican

view is that if you lower tax rates

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you will increase business activity

and business investment. What is

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interesting is businesses keep

saying, our intention is to do share

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buy-backs, which is not so

productive for the economy. That is

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the big companies, that does not

mean smaller companies won't benefit

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and they will invest, but the

question is the magnitude of the

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impact.

If share buy-backs

particularly a bad thing? The Dow

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will have a field day for a few

months if that is the case but is

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there any benefit economically?

There is another way of thinking

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about it, not so much a benefit but

by stimulating the economy with more

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capital you create more inflationary

conditions. We have a little

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inflation, as it picks up, people

stay, I can't stay in cash, I need

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to invest, because your money is

eroded when you sit in cash in an

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inflationary environment so in that

case it stimulates but it is not the

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ideal way to stimulate the economy.

There has been some pushback against

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this deal, particularly over the

last 12 hours, and there is a lot of

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concern that these are projections

for economic growth, there is no

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guarantee that there will be a

boost, and we saw there the numbers,

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how much it could cost as far as the

deficit is concerned.

The real issue

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is that the economy is going well,

so people expect that it will go

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better if you give it the stimulus.

The actual debate about the

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substance of the bill is not so much

about the substance, frankly, it is

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about fighting with Trump over what

he will be and will

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not be allowed to do. Senator McCain

was annoyed with Donald Trump for

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picking on him personally and said

he was not a real war hero, has said

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this is not going to be the Trump

bill, it will be the McCain bill, so

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he has taken it into the Senate and

takes control of the process, that

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accounts for more than the

substance.

That will not wash with

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Donald Trump if it goes through and

succeeds, this is his baby, he will

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take the plaudits if you like?

He

will try, but the Senate can

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absolutely put their fingerprint and

signature on this thing in a way

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that will let them take a good deal

of the credit which, by the way,

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they want going into the mid-term

elections.

Do you think the

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discounts that the state currently

offers as far as tax bills are

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concerned, do you think those will

be debated in the Senate? Will that

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be a sticking point? What other

factors will they bring in to amend

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the bill?

What they will do in the

next 24, 48 hours is not so clear,

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it is a very detail oriented

process, there are thousands of

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pages involved in this kind of

legislation which, interestingly, no

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single senator actually reads, only

their staff read the part relevant

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to their state, so it is through

traditional messy process and we are

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all going to have to wait to hear

what they come up with.

Much more

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horse trading to come. People, thank

you very much indeed.

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Let's take a look at some of

the other stories making the news.

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The Irish Foreign Minister has told

the BBC that it cannot be asked to

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take a leap into the dark when it

comes to Brexit negotiations. He

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said more progress needs to be made

on the solution of how the border

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between Northern Ireland and the

republic works if there is to be

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progress on trade talks.

Amazon has launched another version

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of its voice controlled assistant

Alex for business, firms will be

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able to use the smart speakers to

set up meetings with colleagues,

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book conference rooms and do other

basic tasks as well. There have been

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concerns raised for privacy in

meetings where sensitive information

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is being discussed.

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In the UK, the Royal Bank

of Scotland, which is still 72%

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owned by the Government,

says its cutting almost 700 jubs

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and closing more than 250 branches.

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The lender is trying to reduce

costs as more customers

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move to online banking.

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Trade unions have raised

questions about the move.

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The Japanese carmaker Nissan has

become the latest foreign company

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to seek artibtration

against the Indian authorities.

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The company believes

it is entitled to $770 million

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as part of the agreements

it reached to set-up

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a factory near Chennai.

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Reports suggest there are more

than 20 similiar cases pending.

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The Indian government

hasn't responded.

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The world's largest lithium ion

battery has begun dispensing power

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to the electricity grid

in South Australia.

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It has been dogged by Tesla, best

known for its electric cars, which

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aims to end the state's energy

problems.

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Mariko Oi has more from Singapore.

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They have created this thing and

done it ahead of schedule?

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Indeed, and if you remember it all

started as a bet on Twitter. It was

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actually an Australian software

entrepreneur who asked Elon Musk,

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the boss of Tesla, if he was really

serious about helping south

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Australia after the state suffered a

state-wide blackout. Elon Musk said

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yes, he was, and if the battery was

not built within 100 days, the state

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would get it for free. The countdown

started on the 30th of September,

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after approval from regulators, and

Tesla managed to finish it in about

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60 days, so I guess the state would

have to pay now, as, as I mentioned,

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the plan started dispensing

electricity today, it is situated in

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Jamestown, about fixing, just north

of Adelaide.

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Let's check in with the financial

markets now. In Hong Kong, losses as

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technology companies have offered

some games at energy companies, but

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then the Hang Seng dropped back a

little, a choppy session for the

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McKay as well. It finished the

session a little higher. The Dow is

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continuing its epic climb, surging

above 24,000 for the first time as

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the US Senate move towards proving

that massive tax-cut package. Oil

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prices edged higher as Opec's

decision to extend production limits

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took place.

The FTSE has opened lover, the Dax

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in Frankfurt slightly higher, then

pack 40 slightly lower because of a

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stronger Euro and stronger pound.

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And Samira Hussain has

the details about what's ahead

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on Wall Street Today.

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It's finally Friday,

but it could be a very

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busy end to the week.

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The Dow Jones industrial average

crossed a milestone on Thursday,

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24,000 points for the first time.

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US markets are just downright

euphoric at the prospect

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of major tax reform,

so we'll continue to watch

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what happens in Washington

and how US markets react.

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In other business news,

we see that light vehicle sales

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will have fallen ever so slightly

compared to the month before.

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We're seeing that construction

spending is going to be up by about

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0.5% for the month of October.

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Overall factory spending will have

dropped ever so slightly

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from the previous month.

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Joining us is Lucy MacDonald

from Allianz Global Investor.

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Thanks for joining us. After

everything we have seen coming from

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New York, Asia playing it very cool,

waiting, presumably, for this tax

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reform bill to pass or not?

Yes, and

there is certainly some anticipation

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of this bill. We have been waiting

now for months, and it looks very,

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very close. It is better priced into

markets now, I think, so if it

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passes there will be some positive

benefit, but if you look at the

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Trump trade type stocks, the

cyclicals and industrials and

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financials, they have been moving,

there it is also the domestics...

It

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is interesting you say it is priced

in, many were saying before it

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reached this point, the bill, that

actually the markets have priced all

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of the tax changes in but still you

see this epic climb, don't you? Why

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do you think the market is still

going forward and do you think when

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it is passed, there won't be a

further climb?

I think more of it is

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priced in now is that the

probability of it getting through

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has been priced in gradually and

that is why you have seen this, that

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particular area of the market,

giving better, and at the same time

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some other areas of the market,

technology, health care, slightly

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coming back to fund some of those

areas, so more rotation in the

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market. It is similar to what we saw

a year ago but not anywhere near as

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drastic, and that makes sense, so it

seems to me it is priced quite

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rationally.

Just time to look at

what is happening with oil, prices

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going up, Opec reaching a deal, the

Russians leading it, to keep

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production down for another 12 plus

months?

Guess, that has extended it

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further, clearly that agreement so

far has stabilised the oil price and

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we have seen it coming up and the

sector following close correlation

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between the oil price and the sector

so we have seen that now for six

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months and now that the Saudis and

Russians, who are 10% of the total

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supply, agreed to extend, I would

have thought that should continue.

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And it is still an area of the

market where you can find some

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value, it is not necessarily the

highest growth or the highest

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quality market but there is still

some value and yield there and yield

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is still something we are looking

for.

Absolutely, Lucy, thank you

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very much indeed.

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Still to come...

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Bube's bumpy ride and bitcoin's

roller-coaster, we catch up on

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another big of technology news.

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You're with Business

Live from BBC News.

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A jump in online sales has helped

Fortnum and Mason announce a 23%

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rise in pre-tax profits

to £7.6 million.

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Online sales rose by 17% over

the past year, with rising demand

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from Asia helping to boost

the upmarket department

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store's bottom line.

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Fortnum recently opened a new store

in South Korea, and operates

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in 160 countries globally.

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Joining us now to discuss

these results, is the CEO

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of Fortnum and Mason,

Ewan Venters.

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Thank you for joining us. Pretty

impressive figures, is that mostly

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down to growth abroad?

There is a

substantial element of that but over

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50% of our growth last year came

from the rising demand from UK and

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domestic consumers, which is exactly

what we wanted to happen, we are

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very happy about that, and I believe

part of that success story is that

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so much of what we sell in our

business is actually produced here

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in the United Kingdom, over 80% of

our products are manufactured in the

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UK, so every pound spent with

Fortnum 's is 82p spent with art

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producers across the UK.

Does it

surprise you that there is still

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growing demand for luxury goods at a

time, particularly in the UK, where

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people are really feeling poorer

because of austerity or the economy?

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Or losing jobs?

My experience tells

me that when there are periods of

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uncertainty and Times are tough,

people turn to brands that the

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trust, brands great the great

authenticity, great heritage, great

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story, and I think the British at

the moment like a great cup of tea

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and a proper English biscuit!

Keep

calm and carry on! You are tapping

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into that trend?!

It would appear

that way, but the rest of the world

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is also engaging with us, whether

they are coming to London, and

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undoubtedly the drop in the value of

the pound has helped to drive more

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tourism into London, but also

through the website, we are reaching

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out across the world more than ever.

Thanks very much indeed, cup of tea

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and a biscuit, my biscuit does not

always come from Fortnum and Mason,

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I have to say!

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Lets see what else is happening on

the business pages. RBS is

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decimating its branch network. That

comes from Unite, the union that

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says the bank is betraying

communities with the closure of 259

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branches and the loss of many jobs.

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You're watching Business Live -

our top story...

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The United States Senate is edging

closer to delivering the huge tax

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reforms President Trump wants.

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Voting is due to resume in a few

hours time amid concerns over

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whether the country can afford them.

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A quick look at how

markets are faring....

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The Dow Jones reached another epic

point, above the 24,000 mark. The

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DAX is down, as is the DAX and CAC,

not sharing the same amount of

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enthusiasm for those tax cut plans

in the US.

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And now let's get the inside track

on another big week of tech news.

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It's seen the ride hailing app Uber

suffer a string of setbacks

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and the crypto-currency Bitcoin

suffer a roller-coaster ride

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that was just as tumultuous as it

reached new heights.

0:17:140:17:18

The poems keep on coming!

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Our Techology Correspondent

is Rory Cellan-Jones is here.

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Let's start with Uber.

What a week

for Uber, every week seems to bring

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more drama. This company that has

grown into one of the most powerful

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in the world, still privately held,

having all sorts of disasters. We

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had them accused of hiring ex-CIA

agents to spy on rivals. A trial

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which is supposed to be getting

underway where they are accused of

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industrial espionage against

Google's self driving car division.

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That has been delayed?

Yes, because

of new information. A dramatic day

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in court with a former Uber employee

coming in and spilling the beans

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about their use of covert

surveillance on their rivals.

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Rumbling on in the background is all

of this app fallout from the hack.

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Yes, we heard here in the UK, 2.7

million UK users probably had their

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information exposed during that hack

13 months ago, which we are just

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learning about now! Surprise

surprise. And more bad news on the

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actual numbers. They are trying to

close this deal with Softbank to

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take a share in the company, but

they had to share information of

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further losses.

Uber are in the

firing line, people are out to look

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for stories. Issues like industrial

espionage, isn't that a case of

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loads of businesses do it, just

don't get caught doing it, isn't

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that the reality?

I think... A lot

of people would be offended by that.

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The extent of bad behaviour by Uber

by their own admission, not

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revealing a hack for 13 months,

allegedly stealing all sorts of

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industrial secrets and hiring people

to do that.

This comes at a time

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when Lift, the US rival in the

states has released great numbers,

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revenue more than tripled. There are

contenders to the Uber throne.

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Certainly in the US. They face fewer

challenges overseas but they are

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running up against regulators. In

London they are fighting a potential

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ban. And Israel ruled against this

week and stopped operating there.

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The trouble is carry on.

A

roller-coaster ride as well for

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Bitcoin, that is a huge story.

Hundreds of thousands of people

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trying to jump in on the act.

I am

in obsessed... I keep meaning to

0:19:520:20:02

sell it, but the roller-coaster ride

is ridiculous. I'm looking at what

0:20:020:20:05

has happened in the last 24-hour. It

reached $10,500, went as low as

0:20:050:20:12

$9,200 and has picked up a bit since

then. There are real signs of strain

0:20:120:20:18

in the system, one of the biggest

wallets where people store their

0:20:180:20:23

Bitcoin, inaccessible for many, and

inaccessible right now.

It is those

0:20:230:20:30

who create Bitcoin who are

responsible for maintaining

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transactions?

The other huge

concern, the really interesting

0:20:320:20:36

story we are looking up at the

moment is the energy use around

0:20:360:20:40

Bitcoin. Actually, as it gets bigger

and bigger, it requires more and

0:20:400:20:44

more computer processing power. The

figure came out this week, more

0:20:440:20:48

energy used by Bitcoin each year

than the whole country of Ireland in

0:20:480:20:52

a year and that is continuing to

grow.

Very briefly, I think even the

0:20:520:20:58

Goldman Sachs pass that this is a

vehicle for fraudsters. But one day,

0:20:580:21:03

once regulated, crypto currency will

be the way of the future?

That is

0:21:030:21:08

what the believers say. And there is

huge belief in the technology

0:21:080:21:12

underlying it. A lot of people

plumping that. There is a frenzy

0:21:120:21:17

around it, anything around crypto

currencies has got people

0:21:170:21:20

potentially losing their minds.

Thank you very much indeed.

0:21:200:21:24

And if you want more of the latest

tech news you can catch Rory's

0:21:240:21:28

'Tech Tent' programme on BBC

World Service radio at 1500gmt,

0:21:280:21:31

and if you miss it you can download

the podcast from our website,

0:21:310:21:34

just search for BBC Tech Tent.

0:21:340:21:44

That is just an allegation. Have to

watch it and see for yourself.

0:21:440:21:50

You find them in almost every cafe

and bar in the world.

0:21:500:21:53

They're used by the

billions every year.

0:21:530:21:54

We're talking about the drinking

straw and it's the latest

0:21:540:21:57

in our Million Dollar Idea Series.

0:21:570:21:58

Here's Aaron Heslehurst.

0:21:580:22:02

It's drinking straws. However did we

slurp our drinks without them? We

0:22:050:22:13

used pieces of real straw. Then one

day in 1888, this man, Marvin Stone

0:22:130:22:21

of Washington, was sipping his

whiskey. His straw with getting

0:22:210:22:26

soggy, leaving gunk in his class, so

he took on paper, wrapped it around

0:22:260:22:31

a pencil to make it tube and

fastened the end with glue. The

0:22:310:22:38

first straw. Fast forward to 1936,

Joseph Freeman from San Francisco.

0:22:380:22:45

His young daughter couldn't drink

your milkshake, she is too small to

0:22:450:22:48

reach the top of the straw. If only

the straw would work if you bent it.

0:22:480:22:56

So Joseph took a screw, put it

inside the straw and then wrapped

0:22:560:23:00

dental floss around to make a spiral

indentation. Hey presto, it's the

0:23:000:23:07

world's first bendy straw. Nowadays

the world goes through billions of

0:23:070:23:13

dollars of drinking straws each

year, most of them plastic.

0:23:130:23:16

Americans won't go through 500

billion of these every single year.

0:23:160:23:22

That's 2 million tonnes of discarded

plastic. Can't we use anything?

0:23:220:23:28

I bought some wooden straws.

That's a start, well done.

0:23:280:23:38

Let's see what other

stories are being talked

0:23:380:23:40

about on social media.

0:23:400:23:42

Lucy McDonald, first of all, a story

in the Daily Telegraph, African

0:23:420:23:47

finance minister of the year is

facing jail for telling his

0:23:470:23:50

country's politicians to trim their

perks. This comes at a time when the

0:23:500:23:54

EU Africa summit is winding up. That

is aimed at trying to boost Africa's

0:23:540:24:00

growth and economic development.

That is also to do with cutting

0:24:000:24:04

corruption. What has happened here?

It is, Africa is a great growth area

0:24:040:24:12

that hasn't really delivered. If you

look at population growth, that is

0:24:120:24:18

where all the population growth is

going to come in the next 50 years.

0:24:180:24:23

We have seen some improvement in

overall economic growth but

0:24:230:24:26

corruption is the big problem. There

has been a lot of work done to help

0:24:260:24:32

this issue, but it seems very

difficult to completely eradicate it

0:24:320:24:35

and this feeds into the same story

again.

1.2 million dollars worth,

0:24:350:24:45

not an insignificant amount of money

and it is their allowances. I

0:24:450:24:47

suppose that would be their

argument. It is more the manner in

0:24:470:24:51

which you respond, seeking arrests.

It seems beyond bizarre structure

0:24:510:24:55

exactly. And as I say, it just

really taps into the big concern

0:24:550:25:01

that all investors

have about

investing in the region.

OK, it is

0:25:010:25:06

finally the start of December, the

green light by many to put up their

0:25:060:25:10

Christmas decorations. There is a

warning all that glitter is not good

0:25:100:25:14

for the environment. Apparently it

is very difficult and get stuck in

0:25:140:25:20

filtration systems. It is plastic.

Are you a fan of glitter or a

0:25:200:25:25

decorating fan, a Christmas fan?

A

Christmas plan definitely. This is

0:25:250:25:30

the concern about the oceans. Fish

versus fun. The micro beads

0:25:300:25:41

legislation that's been talked about

here and is being put in place in

0:25:410:25:46

the US is tapping into that.

Let me

bring in some tweets. Old-fashioned

0:25:460:25:50

comedy says I'm afraid I don't have

Christmas decorations, but we always

0:25:500:25:53

used to have a real treat.

What is wrong with wire coat hangers

0:25:530:25:59

and tinsel? Nothing, go for it!

I

have had some for 25

0:25:590:26:03

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