22/12/2017 BBC Business Live


22/12/2017

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This is Business Live

from BBC News with Victoria

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Fritz and Rachel Horne.

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The crisis deepens for Spain,

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as Catalan separatists win a key

election victory in a poll

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that was supposed to see off

their challenge once and for all.

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Live from London, that's our top

story on Friday, 22nd December.

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The Spanish economy has only just

recovered to pre-crisis levels.

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Will the election uncertainty

halt its recent progress?

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We'll cross live to Barcelona

to hear what's next for Catalonia.

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One of the most economic league

important regions in the whole of

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Spain. -- economically important

regions.

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Also in the programme....

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The US government avoids

a Christmas blackout as it

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passes a new funding bill.

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We'll be looking back

at a landmark year for

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the world's biggest economy.

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Also, the very latest on the

markets. Bitcoin took a bit of a

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hammering overnight. Elsewhere,

Spanish stocks weighing down, banks

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leading the charge lower after

separatists claimed the narrow

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victory.

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And we'll be getting

the inside track with our

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Business Editor, Simon Jack.

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Taking a look back on a week

in which the oil giant Shell faces

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major allegations of corruption.

And, first we had the plastic

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bag charge, but how

about the plastic bottle charge?

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MPs are calling for a introduction

of a deposit scheme in an attempt

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to protect the seas

from plastic pollution.

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What do you think?

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Just use the hashtag #BBCBizLive.

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Hello, and welcome to Business Live.

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We start in the Spanish

region of Catalonia,

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where separatists have won a crucial

election victory in a poll that

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Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had

hoped would see off the crisis.

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Instead, it has made it worse,

plunging one of Europe's biggest

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economies into further uncertainty.

Catalonia is hugely

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important for Spain -

it represents a fifth

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of the national economy.

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19%.

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Spain was one of Europe's biggest

casualties following the financial

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crisis ten years ago.

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The country has made a solid

recovery in the last couple

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of years, but over 17%

of the workforce

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is still unemployed.

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Only Greece has a higher jobless

rate in the eurozone.

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Businesses certainly haven't hung

about waiting for the result.

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Almost 3,000 firms have

moved their legal headquarters out

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of Catalonia, including

the region's biggest banks,

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Caixabank and Sabadell.

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Rachel.

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Joining us now from Barcelona

is Professor Samer Ajour.

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Thank you for joining us. Very much

the aim for many in these elections

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was to try and clear up the

situation, but it seems to have

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increased the confusion.

Right,

first of all, good morning to

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everyone from Barcelona. In fact, we

had a very hard day yesterday. We

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were expecting a bit more of a

different let's say election

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answers, but it seems that it's

going to be a little bit complicated

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because, as you've realised, the

elections went in a different way,

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and now it's going to be blocked

again if they don't seek a

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coalition, because the only thing

that investors really want here is a

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little bit of stability. And if

we're going to have again this

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block, we're not going to have

stability again. That's a major

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concern right now for the whole

economy. And it's one of the biggest

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economic elements in Spain. So if

we're going to have this problem

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again for the upcoming six months,

I'm not going to be passed mystic,

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but I'm not C and light at the end

of the tunnel.

We were talking about

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investors, businesses, looking for

stability, they haven't received any

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certainty today. Moving forward,

what damage is this doing to the

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day-to-day economy in Catalonia, and

as a consequence to Spain's economy?

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The thing is, Catalonia and Spain to

rely so much on each other because

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basically it's really simple,

because they don't have a lot of

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resources, you see. So the lack of

resources, we do need to have

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stability. Which means that if we're

depending so much on the service

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sector, if we're lacking this

sector, then where lacking

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investors, foreign investors or

locals, they're going to add

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additional, you know, risk category

on the whole portfolio, and that's

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going through quite a bit of risk

compensation. So anyone who wants to

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invest here, any company that wants

to proceed with the business in

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Catalonia, but acquire a little bit

more of this additional risk that

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we're having currently because of

the political situation. This

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additional compensation is a bit,

you know, hard to attain. Because we

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have a lot of conditions than the

rest of Spain. That's why we've been

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having a lot of companies going to

the rest of Spain. So whenever we

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have around 3000...

Professor Samer

Ajour, we're going to have to leave

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it there. Thank you for joining us

from Barcelona.

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Let's take a look at some of

the other stories making the news...

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A South Korean court has sentenced

the 95-year-old founder

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of Lotte Group to four years

in prison for embezzlement.

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Shin Kyuk-ho was indicted last year,

along with three members

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of his family, on charges including

tax evasion and fraud.

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His son and successor,

Shin Dong-bin, was given

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a suspended 20-month prison.

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Lotte Group is South Korea's fifth

largest conglomerate.

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The US Congress has passed

a short-term funding bill to keep

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the federal government running

for four more weeks just a day

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before funding was due to expire.

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Without the budget deal,

US government departments

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would have been forced

to shut down this weekend.

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The executive chairman of Alphabet,

that's Google's parent company,

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is to step down in January.

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Eric Schmidt, who has been

with the tech giant since 2001,

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will remain on the board

as a technical adviser on science

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and technology issues.

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Alphabet said it appoints to -- it

expects to appoint a replacement

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later this year. Let's check in with

the markets.

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China stocks dipped on Friday

as weakness in banking and consumer

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stocks offset gains in the energy

sector, but the indexes

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were up for the week.

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Asian stocks more generally edged up

though on new data pointing

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to steady growth in the US economy.

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Over in Europe, investors

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are digesting the news

of the Catalan separatist victory

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and it's the euro that's the focus.

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Although at this time of year we're

seeing pretty thin trading,

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many have clocked off

and closed up their investment

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positions ahead of Christmas.

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Some speculators appeared to have

sold the euro already.

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The overall impact of the Catalan

vote on the euro and the wider

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global markets is likely

to be limited, however.

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Catalonia cannot become a sovereign

state if no other country

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recognises its independence.

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It won't even be able

to have its own currency

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It won't even be able

to have its own currency

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under such conditions.

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under such conditions.

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Let's head over to the States now.

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Yogita Limaye has the details

about what's ahead on Wall Street

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today.

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It is the last day of trading before

the long Christmas weekend

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and there is a whole lot of economic

data coming out.

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The Federal Reserve will be watching

closely for an inflation measure

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that it likes to look at when making

decisions, the Personal Consumption

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Expenditures Price Index.

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It factors in prices paid

by consumers here in the US

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for goods and services,

but without the volatility

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of food and energy costs.

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This rate is expected to have gone

up by 0.1% in November.

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The US Commerce Department

will release the number of new homes

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that have been sold last month

and that is likely to have fallen

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compared to October.

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Investors will also find out how

demand for capital goods

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made in the US is faring

and that is expected to have risen.

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Joining us is Shaun Port,

Chief Investment Officer

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at investment management company

Nutmeg.

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Thank you for joining us. We want to

talk about the year the markets have

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had. We have seen phenomenal gains,

the MSCI, which tracks 47 markets

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around the world, is up 27%. What

has been driving the industry is up

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with yellow investors have become

more confident about the global

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economy, the global

has done really

well at the moment and growth has

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become so nice. Developing markets

and emerging markets are doing well

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at the same time. -- growth has

become synchronised. Investors are

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more optimistic, it has been driving

earnings up, and political risk is

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going down despite we saw in Spain

overnight.

It was a lack of

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volatility, but a chaotic news

cycle. It's just not being driven by

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the same agenda any more.

It's

really interesting, actually. Is the

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news about Catalonia today, if you

had played that wacky year ago, --

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if you had played that back a year

ago, it would not have done as well.

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Fundamentals are doing really well

at the moment, it's good news.

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Low-interest rates have been

contributing to this, and the cheap

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money in the markets. But those are

starting to change. Moving into

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2018, will we continue to see these

big games, or is it time for the

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markets to calm down a little bit?

I

think we will see a coming down of

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the markets. The emerging markets

delivered more than 30%, incredible

0:09:550:09:59

game. We won't see a continuation of

that in 2018. Growth is

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accelerating, if anything. US tax

cuts coming in, maybe more

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infrastructure spending in the US,

and global growth is looking strong

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so games will continue but not at

the levels we have seen this year.

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Investment managers have got to put

the money somewhere. If you have a

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pension fund and you're given the

money to invest somewhere, they have

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to put it somewhere. The alternative

is at the moment don't look great.

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Is that why the equity markets have

been stronger silly if you look at

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Government bonds, here in the UK

they are

incredibly expensive,

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investors don't like the returns,

equities look much more interesting.

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Generally, investors haven't enjoyed

the last nine years of equity

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markets going up, not everyone has

enjoyed this raise. Investors are

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now starting to believe there are

gains ahead, good news.

They still

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get bonuses, don't they? I think

they have been enjoying it a little

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bit! What will you be focusing on

next year?

Politics is always front

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and centre, but what happens in 2019

is going to fascinate investors.

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When does the US economy start to

turn down towards a recession into

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2019? That is going to be a theme.

And Brexit as well. Shaun Cummings

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you will be back to look at the

papers at the end of the programme.

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Still to come...

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We'll be getting the inside track

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with our business

editor, Simon Jack.

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Taking a look back on a week

in which the oil giant Shell faces

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major allegations of corruption.

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You're with Business

Live from BBC News.

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Are you prepared

for Christmas dinner?

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Lots of us still aren't.

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I'm not, we've got them coming over

after my shift finishes and we've

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still got some shopping to do.

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Today is expected to be the busiest

day of the year for food and drink

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sales as we stock up for the big

day.

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Ben Thompson is at a supermarket

in east London, where the doors

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opened bright and early.

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He has managed to turn work into

leisure! That doesn't look like you,

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Ben! There you are! I love your

jumper!

Thank you! But how dare you

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say that this is leisure, I've got a

big list of things to pick up and

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bring back for you guys, you should

see the state of my trolley. Really

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busy 48-hour as for the

supermarkets. We are expected to

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spend a staggering £1.5 billion over

the next two days as we stock up on

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all of that food and drink before

the big day. And the supermarkets

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are clearly gearing up. Prices are

bit higher than this time last year.

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We've talked a lot about inflation,

but sales expected to be up on last

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year. Let me introduce you to

Jennifer from Morrisons. How would

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you prepare for this and make sure

you've got the right stuff on the

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right Charles Tapper Right Time was

but it's a really busy time of the

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year and we're doing everything we

can

to prepare. We are due to sell

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nearly twice this week as we would

in a normal week. It is a big

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logistical challenge. We have 1000

lorries on the road delivering stock

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to our stores and a new online stock

ordering system that we are able to

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use to make sure that we have the

right stock on the right Charles at

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the right time. It is all hands on

deck. Everyone from head office is

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in the stores to support us.

It's

pretty stressful for you guys and

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also for the customers.

It is, it is

stressful for customers so we are

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doing everything we can. Customers

have said that they often forget a

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key item on Christmas eve, they go

home and they forgotten it.

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Cranberry sauce, Sellotape,

batteries for toys. We've got a

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number of things in stores to help.

Fiona, on the back of her T-shirt,

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she has a list of the ten most

commonly forgotten items.

Fiona,

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show us the list... These are the

things that people have forgotten.

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Batteries, tinfoil, sticky tape,

cranberry sauce, napkins, bread

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sauce, stuffing, Christmas crackers,

all sorts of things. Nice to see

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you, Jennifer, thank you. I've got

my shopping and AQ saw a huge list

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for you. I'll see you in the New

Year, have a great Christmas!

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You're watching Business Live.

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Our top story: Catalan separatist

parties have won a majority

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in regional elections,

setting the stage

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for more confrontation

with Spain's government.

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The vote is a major setback

for the Spanish Prime Minister,

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who called this election in response

to October's disputed referendum.

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Plenty more on that story. At the

moment, we've not really seen

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markets move, although we've seen a

little bit of the quotation when it

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comes to the ibex, and the euro is

headed slightly lower against the

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dollar -- a bit of degradation.

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And now let's get the inside track

on some of the other

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business stories making

the headlines this week.

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One that's seen Donald Trump emerge

victorious with his huge tax reform

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bill, and we've seen Shell

in the headlines over

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its actions in Nigeria.

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To discuss this, we're now joined

by our business editor Simon Jack.

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What is the most important story

this year?

It is hard to beat the

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Donald Trump tax reforms. The

implications for the rest of the

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world really profound. The

corporation tax cut from 35 and 21%.

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That will increase some of their

earnings by 20-30%. It obviously had

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criticisms that it was a tax cut for

multinationals. There will be tax

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implications for individuals and

middle income families, but those

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tax reforms will be tailored off in

2025, but for the corporation tax,

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it is permanent. If you are going to

put rocket fuel in the well's

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biggest economy when it is already

growing at 4%, the question is, is

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that putting a bit too much gas in

the tank? We use the global

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inflation picked up a little bit.

You have seen oil inflation, said

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the risk is that global inflation

picks up a little bit. China and the

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eurozone are growing well, the US

will have a spurt. Does that mean

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the Federal Reserve has to start

raising rates faster than it

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previously did? Will Bonds look

vulnerable and stock markets look

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vulnerable? A lot of people are

thinking the stock market as it is

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is price point to perfection.

Everything has to go right. I have

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seen some people say that sometimes

the travelling is better than

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getting there. Maybe use will see a

bit of a wobble in the stock market.

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The Donald Trump tax reform is the

biggest thing to happen to the

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global economy. The other thing is

they will have one-off tax on

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overseas profits for US firms. So

the likes of Apple and Google who

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have got hundreds of billions of

dollars sitting offshore in places

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like Ireland and Bermuda, they will

get tax anyway, so you may as well

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bring the money back and there will

be a wall of cash hitting the US.

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The other huge story is being called

the biggest corporate bribery trial

0:17:330:17:37

of all time.

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We're talking about the decision

by Italian authorities to try Shell

0:17:400:17:43

and Eni over a Nigerian oil

deal from 2011.

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What do they stand accused of?

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In 2011 shall and Eni but this giant

oilfield in Nigeria for $1.1

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billion. The money ended up in the

pocket of a former oil minister, and

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the allegation is he used that money

to pay for bribes. Shell and Eni

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always maintained they left it at

the door of the Nigerian government.

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The point is they are saying they

knew that this money would end up in

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the wrong hands. Usually these cases

are settled and this one has not

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been settled. Both Shell and Eni,

the current chief executive of the

0:18:280:18:34

oil giant Eni, and the former number

two of Shell will go to trial in

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Italy and it is very rare that you

see that. That goes to court on

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March the 5th, probably the biggest

corporate corruption and prosecution

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in history.

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corporate corruption

and prosecution in history.

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The Nigerian people lost out

on over $1 billion dollars,

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equivalent to the country's

entire health budget.

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When you do business in certain

parts of the world there are some

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risks. It is a fact of life

sometimes. Corruption is seen as

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pretty stubborn in Nigeria.

Anti-corruption campaigners will say

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the real losers in all of this are

the people of Nigeria because this

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oil wealth should go into the

government coffers and that should

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make its way to public services, it

does not, it ends up in people's

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bank accounts and that is the

problem.

Simon Jack, thank you very

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much and a very Merry Christmas to

you.

0:19:280:19:38

For many people in ASEAN about of

singing is not seem as bad or good

0:19:380:19:43

on a night out. At least a dozen

companies are rolling out karaoke TV

0:19:430:19:48

or karaoke booths in which many

locations.

0:19:480:19:55

SINGING.

0:19:550:20:05

Here I am in a Beijing shopping

centre and suddenly I feel the need

0:20:100:20:13

to express myself in song.

0:20:140:20:18

Well, it is a good thing that

karaoke here has busted

0:20:180:20:22

out of the singing dens

and into the mall.

0:20:220:20:32

Like so much else in China you scan

and pay with your phone,

0:20:450:20:48

choose a song and you are away.

0:20:480:20:53

# Fly me to the Moon and let me

play upon the stars.

0:20:530:21:00

# Let me see what

spring is like on...

0:21:000:21:08

Some will see this and think

there is no way I am

0:21:130:21:22

going to belt out my favourite song

in public for all to see and hear.

0:21:220:21:26

But for plenty of people in China

that is not a problem.

0:21:260:21:28

There are already tens of thousands

of these booths in place.

0:21:280:21:31

It is projected that

within five years there will be

0:21:310:21:33

hundreds of thousands.

0:21:330:21:41

They are very quiet, I think they

need to turn up the volume, give it

0:21:510:21:55

some welly, girls! A story we have

been seeing tweets about today and

0:21:550:22:03

that is plastic pollution. A

suggestion that MPs are saying that

0:22:030:22:08

we should pay a deposit for plastic

bottles in an attempt to protect the

0:22:080:22:13

seas. A few other ideas as well. We

have been asking for your thoughts.

0:22:130:22:19

Dan Martin said the plastic carrier

bag tax has made a difference, so

0:22:190:22:23

why not bottles? Maybe a cashback

for proper recycling would offset

0:22:230:22:28

and help.

Some saying charge a

deposit on glass bottles and viewers

0:22:280:22:34

in the UK will remember we used to

have glass bottles and you would

0:22:340:22:38

bring them back to the supermarket

and get some money back. A lot of

0:22:380:22:45

people calling for that. What do you

think about this? Do you use a

0:22:450:22:49

plastic bottles?

Yes, I do. It would

be great if they had public water

0:22:490:22:53

fountains to fill bottles up. And

there is the influence of the Blue

0:22:530:22:59

Planet.

The big nature documentary

running on the BBC which carried

0:22:590:23:05

strong visual footage of the plastic

waste in the sea.

It shows you the

0:23:050:23:10

power of that image and what plastic

does once you finish with it. A

0:23:100:23:14

great story encouraging people to

recycle and be responsible.

And

0:23:140:23:19

proposing a sliding scale on taxes

for plastic packaging, the idea is

0:23:190:23:23

to make the producers of the plastic

paid. One thing we should say, and a

0:23:230:23:30

hi-fi to BBC News, that some firms

are highly could sensitive to

0:23:300:23:34

pressure on the issue. And one

company is saying it will change its

0:23:340:23:42

policy on plastic, so well done to

BBC News. There is a story in the

0:23:420:23:53

Financial Times. It looks like a

company that makes iced tea have

0:23:530:23:58

decided to change their name and

they are going to start looking at

0:23:580:24:03

the benefits of block chain

technology. That is a shift in

0:24:030:24:06

focus.

It is one of the biggest

pivots in businesses I have seen.

0:24:060:24:13

Small companies in China that used

to make things like furniture are

0:24:130:24:15

now investigating artificial

intelligence and their stocks have

0:24:150:24:21

soared. It takes us back to the era

of the dot-com bubble and you add a

0:24:210:24:25

word to your name and the price goes

up. It shows the craziness

0:24:250:24:30

surrounding bitcoin. Block chain is

behind bitcoin.

I was thinking as we

0:24:300:24:39

were chatting whether our viewing

figures would go up if we had a

0:24:390:24:44

little bitcoin Medallion, with your

bitcoin password numbers. Let's see

0:24:440:24:52

if the costume and make-up

department can help us out. Another

0:24:520:24:56

story that is extraordinary for this

time of the year. It has been

0:24:560:24:59

described by the New York Times as

cute. I think it looks terrifying.

0:24:590:25:05

It is a doll with waist length gold

in here that talks and responds to

0:25:050:25:09

children's' questions and it could

pose a bit of a threat. Hackers and

0:25:090:25:16

identity thieves are looking at

this.

Anything with a microphone and

0:25:160:25:21

a camera can be hacked. It relates

to things like personal assistance

0:25:210:25:26

as well with microphones and

cameras. If they can be hacked, you

0:25:260:25:31

can listen in and spy on people and

they are security concern. Your

0:25:310:25:36

kitchen is connected, your fridge is

connected and though security

0:25:360:25:39

concerns will increase.

More and

more people are buying these toys

0:25:390:25:44

that are progressing, especially in

the run-up to Christmas. You would

0:25:440:25:48

assume it is properly regulated.

Thank you very much for joining us

0:25:480:25:53

and happy Christmas. That is it from

today. Plenty more business news

0:25:530:25:59

throughout the day and on the live

page.

0:25:590:26:03

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