14/02/2018 BBC Business Live

This is Business Live from BBC

News with Ben Thompson

and Samantha Simmonds.

A Brexit blackhole for Europe.

How will the EU plug

a $15 billion shortfall

when the UK leaves the union?

Live from London,

that's our top story

on Wednesday 14th February.

Brexit will leave the EU

with a big gap in its budget -

there could be cuts to spending

and other members will

be asked to pay more.

We will hear from the sky shortly.

-- this guy shortly.

Also in the programme:

is the Premier League

losing its star appeal?

The cost of broadcast rights

falls for the top flight

of English football -

we'll look at why.

And all eyes are on the latest

inflation figures from the US,

they're due later.

And after the roller coaster market

reaction to the jobs figures -

investors are on edge.

And clocking up the airmiles -

we meet the man

who says he can tell you how to fly

first class, without paying a penny.

He's the self-titled 'Points Guy'

and knows all the tricks

of airline loyalty schemes.

And after an amazon ad is cleared

of automatically ordering cat food

via a customers' device -

we want to know, do you use

a voice-activated device

like Alexa or Siri?

If so, what for and do you trust

what it's listening to?

Let us know, use the

hashtag BBC Biz Live

Lots of you getting in touch already

about that story.

Lots of you getting in touch already

about that story. Keep your comments

coming in about those

voice-activated devices and whether

they are a benefit or just a

frustration. Mine ignores me quite

often. We will talk more about that

a little bit later.

In a few hours' time, the President

of the European Commission -

Jean Claude Juncker -

will outline his proposals

for the future EU budget.

He'll be working on the basis

that the UK will be leaving

the union and this

will deprive the EU

of between 12 and 13

billion euros every year -

that's around 15 to $16 billion.

Currently, 1% of the

bloc's gross national

income goes towards the budget,

but Mr Juncker has already called

for members to contribute more

when the UK departs.

In addition, the EU's

budget commissioner has

already said that the union

will need to make spending

cuts across the board -

this includes a modest scaling back

of the Common Agricultural Policy.

Joining us now from Brussels

is Guntram Wolff -

director of the European think tank

Bruegel.

Thank you for joining us. Which

countries will have to fill this

enormous black hole?

That, the holed

is 12 billion. Of course, part of

the hole will be filled by a cut in

spending and part will be filled by

increasing contributions. The

countries that most obviously will

have to increase are the ones

already paying, such as Germany, my

home country, will chip in quite a

bit. The draft coalition Government

in Germany has announced quite

clearly that Germany stands ready to

increase its budgetary

contributions. But the designated

finance minister of Germany has also

said that Germany will not pluck --

pluck the whole gap in the Budget.

There will have to be Budget cuts

elsewhere.

Which countries will

suffer those?

That's the big battle

that we will start now. Jean-Claude

Juncker is only putting up a number

of options, the real fight will

start now. The fight is between, of

course, on the one hand farmers, and

on the other hand regions that are a

little bit less advantaged compared

to the better performing regions. It

is about a cohesion policy. And

agricultural policy. Quite a bit of

the burden could fall on some

central and eastern European

countries. They are already starting

to fight heavily.

Given that will

there be cracks in the union about

this?

The real battle isn't in the

document that will be outlined now.

But it is being said frequently here

by high-level commissioners, it's

the idea to make spending

conditional on the rule of law.

Conditional on respecting the rules

of the union. And that is, of

course, something that's targeted at

Poland, and perhaps Hungary. That

debate is toxic. But it's ongoing.

We shall see who will prevail in

that debate in the end.

Thanks very

much.

Let's take a look at some of

the other stories making the news.

Sky and BT have agreed to pay

£4.5 billion to broadcast

Premier League games for three

seasons from 2019 to 2020.

But the TV networks could end up

paying hundreds of millions

of pounds less than in 2015,

with lower prices per game.

The winning bidder for two other

packages of TV rights hasn't yet

been announced, leading

to speculation that

the price is too high.

Japan's economy has seen its longest

continuous expansion

since the 1980s boom as growth

in the fourth quarter

of the year rose by 0.5%.

The rise will be welcome news

to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,

whose economic policies have been

criticised in the past.

Armed police in South Africa have F

raided the home of a family business

that has close ties to President

Jacob Zuma. It comes as the nation

awaits to see whether the president

will step down as ordered by his

party, the ANC.

Chinese search engine Baidu has seen

a rapid turnaround in its fortunes,

with revenues up 29%

at the end of 2017.

It's partly due to the success

of its Netflix-like video streaming

service, which Baidu is now planning

to list in the US.

Monica Miller is in Singapore

to tell us what's going on.

It's an interesting turn around,

these results much better, and it

plays into that trend of streaming

content online.

They have a lot of

competition. Earlier this week we

made a similar announcement that

Alibaba has just made a deal with

Walt Disney, a huge one, so they

will stream their movies and

programmes. You will be able to

watch Winnie the Pooh and Mickey

Mouse. But in terms of Baidu this

substantial earnings. $656 million

in profit. After the news broke

their shares went up more than 5%.

The pygmies we were talking about is

this video streaming service. Their

arm is apparently going to launch

this in the US stock exchange. I

have heard different figures

mentioned. The cost of it, what it

is worth could be anywhere between

eight to $15 billion. Anything. This

will be a big story about the

economic future of China.

Thanks

very much.

Let me show you the markets. The

Hang Seng is having a pretty good

session. Bucking a trend of

nervousness coming back into markets

ahead of the inflation figures that

we will get in the US later. At the

world's largest economy. It will

have an effect around the world. We

know markets are jittery given

everything we saw it with the

better-than-expected job figures. It

is that perverse thing where good

news is leading to big falls on the

markets. Because it means interest

rates could go up sooner than

expected. Let me show you what is

happening in Europe, and it is a

similar picture at the start. They

will be keeping an eye on what

happens in the US later.

And Yogita Limaye has

the details about what's ahead

on Wall Street Today.

Before markets open here in the US,

we're going to see some pretty

important economic data come out.

And that could dictate

which way the day goes.

Numbers for the Consumer Price

Index will be released.

This is a key measure of inflation

that the Federal Reserve looks

at while making interest rate

decisions, and so, if it's gone

up more than expected,

it could rekindle fears of rapid

rate rise in the US,

something that triggered the steep

fall markets saw last week.

Retail sales figures

will also be out.

They are an indication

of whether or not the American

consumer remains happy to spend.

And some of the country's big-ticket

investors like Warren Buffett

and George Soros will disclose

what stocks they're holding.

It's something they have

to do every quarter,

but there is always keen interest

in finding out what companies

they're placing their bets on.

Joining us is Jane Foley, Senior

Currency Strategist at Rabobank.

Welcome. We have these inflation

figures coming out in the US. There

was lots of concern about that.

Huge. More than any other time in

years. Huge focus on this US

inflation release. We are all aware

of the big plungers in the stock

market last week which was triggered

by another inflation really. That

time it was the average earnings for

January. Generally if people are

paid more than we have more money in

our pockets and we demand more and

the consumer rate goes up. It is

this release, as welcome if that is

also strong, the market will worry

about higher interest rates, and

that can lead to more volatility

again across the markets.

Thanks

very much, we shall see you later

for a look at the newspapers.

Still to come:

Air Miles, credit card points, a

certain deal and airline is offering

is worth it, we have a team of

writers researching, so you don't

have too.

Spin forwards, a few

years...

20.

How to fly first class

without paying a penny.

I meet the mean who knows all the

tricks of airline loyalty schemes.

He's called the Points Guy,

and he tells me some

of the secrets of the skies.

You're with Business

Live from BBC News.

A wave of sexual harassment claims

have hit the headlines lately,

particularly in the TV and film

industry, prompted by

allegations against disgraced

producer Harvey Weinstein.

And so the British Film industry has

launched a new set of guidelines

to guard against bullying

and sexual harassment.

Let's speak to BFI's chief

executive Amanda Nevill.

Why are these guidelines

being launched?

What is the aim behind them

and why are they needed?

Why are these guidelines

being launched?

This is a set of eight principles

that have been devised and drawn up

by most of the main organisations

behind film in the UK. They come

with a set of guidance. They also

come with a commitment to offer

training with the aim that in every

set and every workplace there are at

least two people you can go and talk

to. And a free telephone advice line

which is being supported by the film

and television benevolent fund.

There hasn't been anything like this

in the past. People have complaints

and concerns but haven't had any

where to turn to.

The law is on your

side. But there is that missing

link. If you are a victim of this it

is often difficult to know how to

articulate the issues and where to

turn. But this is an important day.

These are eight simple principles.

The industry is sending out a

message, we want to stand up and say

we don't want this behaviour in our

environment. Film is booming in the

UK. We need another 10,000 entrants

into the industry. We want to send

out a firm message that this is an

open, inclusive, safe, and enjoyable

industry to work in.

There is some

criticism that this is a lovely

environment, we can get away with

these rules, if you're in a small

organisation, maybe working in a

college, that resources and

available. Are you hoping this could

roll out elsewhere?

The whole point

of the principle from the

organisations that have signed up

behind it shows there was a

commitment right across whole

industry. It isn't just about large

organisations. One tiny example, one

of the organisations has film clubs

in 10,000 schools across the UK.

They are for free. They will be

talking about bullying and

harassment. So right at the very

beginning young people will be able

to learn about what the film

industry is doing to combat this.

Good to talk to you, thank you very

much.

You're watching Business Live.

Our top story: In a few

hours' time, the President

of the European Commission,

Jean-Claude Juncker,

will outline his proposals

for the future EU budget.

He'll be working on the basis

that the UK will be leaving

the union and this will deprive

the EU of between 12

and 13 billion euros every year -

that's around 15 to $16 billion.

How do you fancy flying first class

without paying a penny?

Well, it's possible, apparently.

But you have to learn how

to use all those Air Miles

and credit card points wisely.

And one man who says he can tell

you how to do it is Brian Kelly.

He's called the Points Guy,

and his site gives the lowdown

on reward schemes and how

to use them.

I caught up with him in LA.

Thepointsguy.com is a site all

about how to maximise your travel,

whether it's your air miles

or credit card points

or whether a certain deal that

an airline is offering is worth it.

We've got a team of writers

researching the nitty-gritty

so you don't have to.

So where did this begin?

Interestingly, I was

always computer savvy.

My dad got a job at a start-up

where he had to work from home.

He didn't know how to use

the computer, so I charged him $10

a ticket, I basically

was using Travelocity

when I first started in '96.

So he thought it was really

convoluted to book an airline

ticket, but I was just

clicking on information.

So that was the first time

I started a business.

And then he realised

he had all these loyalty

points, and he was like,

I don't know how to use them,

but being the precocious

12-year-old that I was,

I was like, it's got to be

the Caribbean, you know!

And somehow my parents

trusted their 12-year-old son,

and every year we had

the most amazing trips.

So, spin forwards a few years.

20 years, yes.

And it's now a fully fledged

business, you employ 20

staff, based in New York.

How did you get to that?

I started earning points,

I started working on Wall Street

in August of '07.

So I worked at Morgan Stanley

in recruitment, but I was travelling

around the US and Canada recruiting

computer scientists

to work on Wall Street,

which you could imagine

during a recession, especially

when most computer scientists

want to work at Google or Yahoo,

it was an uphill battle.

But the company, even though

there was a recession,

you can't cut back on technology

and your future technology,

so my job was, I was buying tonnes

of Nintendo Wiis to go on MIT's

campus to convince people to come

and listen to our opportunities,

so I was spending $100,000 a month

on the company dime,

paying it off every month

and earning the points.

So all of a sudden,

my points for myself

were just raining from above.

And even though during

the recession, no bonuses,

and you could barely

get a raise, points,

I was cash poor and points rich.

And then you turned

that into a business?

So now you spend a lot of time

and your team that work with you,

you spend a lot of time maybe

looking at some of the loopholes,

the flaws, and actually how to just

maximise what the points can do.

Tell me about that.

So I started a blog in 2010

while I was still at Morgan Stanley,

and it was just to help my friends

and family understand

what I was doing.

But I realised really quickly

that most of the travel

deals that came out,

people weren't explaining how

to take advantage of that.

So I saw how things would go viral,

and I would be able to explain

succinctly, get in on this deal,

just to it.

People need to be told,

is this worth it, or is it not.

Give everything you've said,

I can't imagine you are friends

with a lot of airlines.

Tell me about that relationship.

It's really interesting, because we

don't do anything unethical. We play

within the rules, and airlines like

this, because airline loyalty

programmes are huge profit centres.

The airlines often make more selling

frequent-flyer miles to partners

like credit cards that they do

actually selling flights. So they

have an interest in keeping these

programmes going. All I do is teach

people how to get the most value out

of them. So we are friendly with the

airlines. We are also independent, I

don't take freebies from airlines, I

pay for all my own flights, because

a lot of what we do is reviewing

flights and hotels, so we need that

integrity. So I would say we have a

cordial relationship with the

airlines. I did a Facebook live with

the new CEO of British Airways, so I

think we definitely have a cordial

relationship with the airlines.

So after that expert advice, I hope

you flew home first-class! Chance

would be a fine thing, but it is

really interesting when you realise,

unless you pay serious attention to

it, you just think you are and you

spend them, but you have to be a bit

clever, work out how to use them,

maybe buy the ticket and then

upgrade.

IBooks and tickets with air Miles to

go this summer to Los Angeles, five

of us in the family, business class,

or an air Miles, but the tax is

huge, almost as much as it would

have cost to go economy.

Sergas, some decent advice there.

Now, as if you could have avoided

this.

Valentines Day is upon us.

But thanks to the smartphone,

Cupid now has another string

to his bow.

The online dating

industry is worth more

than $5 billion every year -

and mobile users are

now spoilt for choice.

Certainly for options, maybe Doctor

-- maybe not for dates!

In addition to the most popular apps

like Tinder and Bumble,

today there are apps

which try to find you a potential

partner using everything

from your music taste to your DNA.

So how do they all work?

Tom Davies has more.

Tinder.

Tinder.

I've been known to Tinder a bit.

Used Tinder but I didn't like it.

We've all been on Tinder,

of course we've all got the app.

Too tall, too sporty, too vain.

Many of the traditional dating

websites try to bag you that

special someone by asking

you about your personal preferences.

And while experts agree

on linedating is good

for widening the pool,

is this the solution

to finding Mr or Mrs Right?

The research is now clear that

using individual level

information for personality,

values and preferences,

to try to predict who will be

compatible in the future,

is a losing game.

It might just set up people

who are similar to them.

It is a reasonable hypothesis but no

one has the able to find consistent

evidence for that idea.

So if data is not helping us to find

out perfect partner,

what else can be used

to find our soul mates?

One firm has the answer

and they think love

is all about chemistry.

My name is Asma Mirza and I am one

of the co-founders and chief

executive officer of Pheramor.

I am Brittany, the chief chemical

officer.

Pheramor is dating app that matches

people based on genetics.

We send you a genetic kit.

We extract a portion of the DNA.

You are able to see

who you would be attracted to.

DNA and pheromones are what love

at first sight is all about.

In the age of the smartphone,

many are pinning our hopes

on love at first swipe,

rather than at first sight.

And although there

are more and more apps available,

now the problem may be there is just

too much to choose from.

Did Tom have his shoes on the set

there? Sackable offence! Jane Foley

is with us.

You walk into the shops

these days, and you begin to see the

next thing, Valentine's Day, then

Easter, and it seems like a constant

cycle.

If you don't want to pay for

what the flowers today, you can do

what my husband didn't buy them for

days early so that you don't have to

get them full price!

That is better than maybe getting

them tomorrow, and getting reduced

flowers I! Be grateful you got some

at all. That's talk about what is in

the papers, and this is a story we

mentioned earlier about sky and BT

paying over £4 billion to share

these Premier League TV rights. Is

it more less last year?

I think

there are two aspect of this. The

first is cost, because per match, it

is a lot less, so they are paying

together $4.46 billion, three years

ago it was $5.4 billion, and they

say that there are declining viewing

numbers. And that I think is

something that the industry does

need to address. Why are there

declining viewing numbers, is it

because there is so much choice, or

is it perhaps because to go to see a

football match now is so expensive

even to watch it on television and

so difficult, perhaps it is

difficult to get the youngsters

interested in the sport. So I think

that is something which is

interesting. The other thing is not

all the packages have been sold yet.

And according to some of the

analysts, they could go to the likes

of Facebook.

That is what some of

the analysts were saying.

Perhaps

these guys will dip their toe in the

water on some of the smaller

packages, see how that runs, and

then at the next auction, that could

be the more interesting time to see

whether these online agencies have

an interest in this.

Staying with

Amazon, this is an interesting

story, this is to do with

voice-activated devices, Amazon's is

called the Echo, apparently they had

a TV advertisement that

inadvertently triggered the speaker

to order some cat food, but it is

interesting when we talk about the

growth of this in terms of people

being able to shop and run their

lives. We have asked for people to

get in touch with their concerns,

whether they use them. On the whole,

people are saying that they like

using them, but it is a whole new

business stream for these firms.

It is, but I would say if you are a

user of Amazon prime, the difference

of course is that you just log on

and order something online, it

arrived the next day in the post,

which is brilliant. The difference

with this is it is voice-activated,

which can be brilliant for some

people who find it more difficult to

logon. I have a couple of teenagers,

and I would rather have the

discipline of making them log on,

this is my credit card! But I do

think that for many people, it could

be a brilliant device. A lot of

people getting a touch. Say, do you

use them? Ed Wood says, my Geordie

accent doesn't always work, so there

is a lot of issues around accidents

of language. Trish says, I don't

trust Google's Alexa. I use it to

control my smart home setup, heating

and lights, very few issues. This

person says, I would be very afraid

of a device like that recording

everything I say privately. That is

the fear, what is it going to record

and do with it?

We don't understand

technology fully and we know we

don't understand it fully so we will

always be suspicious of this.

Jane, nice to see, thank you very

much. My husband just texted me, I

think he is feeling guilty about the

flowers!

Mark says, my life is not

interesting enough to be listened

to. We will leave you with that

thought, same time, same place

tomorrow. Goodbye. Thanks for

watching. Goodbye.