14/02/2018 BBC Business Live


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14/02/2018

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This is Business Live from BBC

News with Ben Thompson

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and Samantha Simmonds.

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A Brexit blackhole for Europe.

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How will the EU plug

a $15 billion shortfall

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when the UK leaves the union?

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Live from London,

that's our top story

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on Wednesday 14th February.

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Brexit will leave the EU

with a big gap in its budget -

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there could be cuts to spending

and other members will

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be asked to pay more.

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We will hear from the sky shortly.

-- this guy shortly.

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Also in the programme:

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is the Premier League

losing its star appeal?

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The cost of broadcast rights

falls for the top flight

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of English football -

we'll look at why.

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And all eyes are on the latest

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inflation figures from the US,

they're due later.

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And after the roller coaster market

reaction to the jobs figures -

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investors are on edge.

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And clocking up the airmiles -

we meet the man

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who says he can tell you how to fly

first class, without paying a penny.

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He's the self-titled 'Points Guy'

and knows all the tricks

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of airline loyalty schemes.

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And after an amazon ad is cleared

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of automatically ordering cat food

via a customers' device -

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we want to know, do you use

a voice-activated device

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like Alexa or Siri?

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If so, what for and do you trust

what it's listening to?

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Let us know, use the

hashtag BBC Biz Live

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Lots of you getting in touch already

about that story.

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Lots of you getting in touch already

about that story. Keep your comments

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coming in about those

voice-activated devices and whether

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they are a benefit or just a

frustration. Mine ignores me quite

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often. We will talk more about that

a little bit later.

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In a few hours' time, the President

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of the European Commission -

Jean Claude Juncker -

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will outline his proposals

for the future EU budget.

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He'll be working on the basis

that the UK will be leaving

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the union and this

will deprive the EU

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of between 12 and 13

billion euros every year -

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that's around 15 to $16 billion.

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Currently, 1% of the

bloc's gross national

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income goes towards the budget,

but Mr Juncker has already called

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for members to contribute more

when the UK departs.

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In addition, the EU's

budget commissioner has

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already said that the union

will need to make spending

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cuts across the board -

this includes a modest scaling back

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of the Common Agricultural Policy.

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Joining us now from Brussels

is Guntram Wolff -

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director of the European think tank

Bruegel.

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Thank you for joining us. Which

countries will have to fill this

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enormous black hole?

That, the holed

is 12 billion. Of course, part of

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the hole will be filled by a cut in

spending and part will be filled by

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increasing contributions. The

countries that most obviously will

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have to increase are the ones

already paying, such as Germany, my

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home country, will chip in quite a

bit. The draft coalition Government

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in Germany has announced quite

clearly that Germany stands ready to

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increase its budgetary

contributions. But the designated

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finance minister of Germany has also

said that Germany will not pluck --

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pluck the whole gap in the Budget.

There will have to be Budget cuts

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elsewhere.

Which countries will

suffer those?

That's the big battle

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that we will start now. Jean-Claude

Juncker is only putting up a number

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of options, the real fight will

start now. The fight is between, of

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course, on the one hand farmers, and

on the other hand regions that are a

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little bit less advantaged compared

to the better performing regions. It

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is about a cohesion policy. And

agricultural policy. Quite a bit of

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the burden could fall on some

central and eastern European

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countries. They are already starting

to fight heavily.

Given that will

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there be cracks in the union about

this?

The real battle isn't in the

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document that will be outlined now.

But it is being said frequently here

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by high-level commissioners, it's

the idea to make spending

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conditional on the rule of law.

Conditional on respecting the rules

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of the union. And that is, of

course, something that's targeted at

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Poland, and perhaps Hungary. That

debate is toxic. But it's ongoing.

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We shall see who will prevail in

that debate in the end.

Thanks very

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much.

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Let's take a look at some of

the other stories making the news.

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Sky and BT have agreed to pay

£4.5 billion to broadcast

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Premier League games for three

seasons from 2019 to 2020.

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But the TV networks could end up

paying hundreds of millions

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of pounds less than in 2015,

with lower prices per game.

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The winning bidder for two other

packages of TV rights hasn't yet

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been announced, leading

to speculation that

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the price is too high.

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Japan's economy has seen its longest

continuous expansion

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since the 1980s boom as growth

in the fourth quarter

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of the year rose by 0.5%.

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The rise will be welcome news

to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,

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whose economic policies have been

criticised in the past.

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Armed police in South Africa have F

raided the home of a family business

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that has close ties to President

Jacob Zuma. It comes as the nation

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awaits to see whether the president

will step down as ordered by his

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party, the ANC.

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Chinese search engine Baidu has seen

a rapid turnaround in its fortunes,

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with revenues up 29%

at the end of 2017.

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It's partly due to the success

of its Netflix-like video streaming

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service, which Baidu is now planning

to list in the US.

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Monica Miller is in Singapore

to tell us what's going on.

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It's an interesting turn around,

these results much better, and it

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plays into that trend of streaming

content online.

They have a lot of

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competition. Earlier this week we

made a similar announcement that

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Alibaba has just made a deal with

Walt Disney, a huge one, so they

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will stream their movies and

programmes. You will be able to

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watch Winnie the Pooh and Mickey

Mouse. But in terms of Baidu this

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substantial earnings. $656 million

in profit. After the news broke

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their shares went up more than 5%.

The pygmies we were talking about is

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this video streaming service. Their

arm is apparently going to launch

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this in the US stock exchange. I

have heard different figures

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mentioned. The cost of it, what it

is worth could be anywhere between

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eight to $15 billion. Anything. This

will be a big story about the

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economic future of China.

Thanks

very much.

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Let me show you the markets. The

Hang Seng is having a pretty good

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session. Bucking a trend of

nervousness coming back into markets

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ahead of the inflation figures that

we will get in the US later. At the

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world's largest economy. It will

have an effect around the world. We

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know markets are jittery given

everything we saw it with the

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better-than-expected job figures. It

is that perverse thing where good

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news is leading to big falls on the

markets. Because it means interest

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rates could go up sooner than

expected. Let me show you what is

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happening in Europe, and it is a

similar picture at the start. They

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will be keeping an eye on what

happens in the US later.

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And Yogita Limaye has

the details about what's ahead

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on Wall Street Today.

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Before markets open here in the US,

we're going to see some pretty

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important economic data come out.

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And that could dictate

which way the day goes.

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Numbers for the Consumer Price

Index will be released.

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This is a key measure of inflation

that the Federal Reserve looks

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at while making interest rate

decisions, and so, if it's gone

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up more than expected,

it could rekindle fears of rapid

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rate rise in the US,

something that triggered the steep

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fall markets saw last week.

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Retail sales figures

will also be out.

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They are an indication

of whether or not the American

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consumer remains happy to spend.

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And some of the country's big-ticket

investors like Warren Buffett

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and George Soros will disclose

what stocks they're holding.

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It's something they have

to do every quarter,

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but there is always keen interest

in finding out what companies

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they're placing their bets on.

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Joining us is Jane Foley, Senior

Currency Strategist at Rabobank.

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Welcome. We have these inflation

figures coming out in the US. There

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was lots of concern about that.

Huge. More than any other time in

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years. Huge focus on this US

inflation release. We are all aware

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of the big plungers in the stock

market last week which was triggered

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by another inflation really. That

time it was the average earnings for

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January. Generally if people are

paid more than we have more money in

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our pockets and we demand more and

the consumer rate goes up. It is

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this release, as welcome if that is

also strong, the market will worry

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about higher interest rates, and

that can lead to more volatility

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again across the markets.

Thanks

very much, we shall see you later

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for a look at the newspapers.

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Still to come:

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Air Miles, credit card points, a

certain deal and airline is offering

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is worth it, we have a team of

writers researching, so you don't

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have too.

Spin forwards, a few

years...

20.

How to fly first class

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without paying a penny.

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I meet the mean who knows all the

tricks of airline loyalty schemes.

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He's called the Points Guy,

and he tells me some

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of the secrets of the skies.

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You're with Business

Live from BBC News.

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A wave of sexual harassment claims

have hit the headlines lately,

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particularly in the TV and film

industry, prompted by

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allegations against disgraced

producer Harvey Weinstein.

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And so the British Film industry has

launched a new set of guidelines

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to guard against bullying

and sexual harassment.

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Let's speak to BFI's chief

executive Amanda Nevill.

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Why are these guidelines

being launched?

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What is the aim behind them

and why are they needed?

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Why are these guidelines

being launched?

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This is a set of eight principles

that have been devised and drawn up

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by most of the main organisations

behind film in the UK. They come

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with a set of guidance. They also

come with a commitment to offer

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training with the aim that in every

set and every workplace there are at

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least two people you can go and talk

to. And a free telephone advice line

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which is being supported by the film

and television benevolent fund.

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There hasn't been anything like this

in the past. People have complaints

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and concerns but haven't had any

where to turn to.

The law is on your

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side. But there is that missing

link. If you are a victim of this it

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is often difficult to know how to

articulate the issues and where to

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turn. But this is an important day.

These are eight simple principles.

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The industry is sending out a

message, we want to stand up and say

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we don't want this behaviour in our

environment. Film is booming in the

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UK. We need another 10,000 entrants

into the industry. We want to send

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out a firm message that this is an

open, inclusive, safe, and enjoyable

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industry to work in.

There is some

criticism that this is a lovely

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environment, we can get away with

these rules, if you're in a small

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organisation, maybe working in a

college, that resources and

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available. Are you hoping this could

roll out elsewhere?

The whole point

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of the principle from the

organisations that have signed up

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behind it shows there was a

commitment right across whole

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industry. It isn't just about large

organisations. One tiny example, one

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of the organisations has film clubs

in 10,000 schools across the UK.

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They are for free. They will be

talking about bullying and

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harassment. So right at the very

beginning young people will be able

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to learn about what the film

industry is doing to combat this.

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Good to talk to you, thank you very

much.

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You're watching Business Live.

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Our top story: In a few

hours' time, the President

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of the European Commission,

Jean-Claude Juncker,

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will outline his proposals

for the future EU budget.

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He'll be working on the basis

that the UK will be leaving

0:14:010:14:04

the union and this will deprive

the EU of between 12

0:14:040:14:07

and 13 billion euros every year -

that's around 15 to $16 billion.

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How do you fancy flying first class

without paying a penny?

0:14:130:14:15

Well, it's possible, apparently.

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But you have to learn how

to use all those Air Miles

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and credit card points wisely.

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And one man who says he can tell

you how to do it is Brian Kelly.

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He's called the Points Guy,

and his site gives the lowdown

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on reward schemes and how

to use them.

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I caught up with him in LA.

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Thepointsguy.com is a site all

about how to maximise your travel,

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whether it's your air miles

or credit card points

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or whether a certain deal that

an airline is offering is worth it.

0:14:480:14:51

We've got a team of writers

researching the nitty-gritty

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so you don't have to.

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So where did this begin?

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Interestingly, I was

always computer savvy.

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My dad got a job at a start-up

where he had to work from home.

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He didn't know how to use

the computer, so I charged him $10

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a ticket, I basically

was using Travelocity

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when I first started in '96.

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So he thought it was really

convoluted to book an airline

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ticket, but I was just

clicking on information.

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So that was the first time

I started a business.

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And then he realised

he had all these loyalty

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points, and he was like,

I don't know how to use them,

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but being the precocious

12-year-old that I was,

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I was like, it's got to be

the Caribbean, you know!

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And somehow my parents

trusted their 12-year-old son,

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and every year we had

the most amazing trips.

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So, spin forwards a few years.

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20 years, yes.

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And it's now a fully fledged

business, you employ 20

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staff, based in New York.

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How did you get to that?

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I started earning points,

I started working on Wall Street

0:15:510:15:54

in August of '07.

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So I worked at Morgan Stanley

in recruitment, but I was travelling

0:15:550:15:58

around the US and Canada recruiting

computer scientists

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to work on Wall Street,

which you could imagine

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during a recession, especially

when most computer scientists

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want to work at Google or Yahoo,

it was an uphill battle.

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But the company, even though

there was a recession,

0:16:080:16:11

you can't cut back on technology

and your future technology,

0:16:110:16:14

so my job was, I was buying tonnes

of Nintendo Wiis to go on MIT's

0:16:140:16:17

campus to convince people to come

and listen to our opportunities,

0:16:170:16:20

so I was spending $100,000 a month

on the company dime,

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paying it off every month

and earning the points.

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So all of a sudden,

my points for myself

0:16:260:16:29

were just raining from above.

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And even though during

the recession, no bonuses,

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and you could barely

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get a raise, points,

I was cash poor and points rich.

0:16:370:16:41

And then you turned

that into a business?

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So now you spend a lot of time

and your team that work with you,

0:16:440:16:47

you spend a lot of time maybe

looking at some of the loopholes,

0:16:470:16:52

the flaws, and actually how to just

maximise what the points can do.

0:16:520:16:56

Tell me about that.

0:16:560:16:57

So I started a blog in 2010

while I was still at Morgan Stanley,

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and it was just to help my friends

and family understand

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what I was doing.

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But I realised really quickly

that most of the travel

0:17:060:17:09

deals that came out,

people weren't explaining how

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to take advantage of that.

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So I saw how things would go viral,

and I would be able to explain

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succinctly, get in on this deal,

just to it.

0:17:180:17:20

People need to be told,

is this worth it, or is it not.

0:17:200:17:24

Give everything you've said,

I can't imagine you are friends

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with a lot of airlines.

0:17:260:17:27

Tell me about that relationship.

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It's really interesting, because we

don't do anything unethical. We play

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within the rules, and airlines like

this, because airline loyalty

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programmes are huge profit centres.

The airlines often make more selling

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frequent-flyer miles to partners

like credit cards that they do

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actually selling flights. So they

have an interest in keeping these

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programmes going. All I do is teach

people how to get the most value out

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of them. So we are friendly with the

airlines. We are also independent, I

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don't take freebies from airlines, I

pay for all my own flights, because

0:18:040:18:07

a lot of what we do is reviewing

flights and hotels, so we need that

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integrity. So I would say we have a

cordial relationship with the

0:18:120:18:16

airlines. I did a Facebook live with

the new CEO of British Airways, so I

0:18:160:18:23

think we definitely have a cordial

relationship with the airlines.

0:18:230:18:27

So after that expert advice, I hope

you flew home first-class! Chance

0:18:270:18:33

would be a fine thing, but it is

really interesting when you realise,

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unless you pay serious attention to

it, you just think you are and you

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spend them, but you have to be a bit

clever, work out how to use them,

0:18:400:18:44

maybe buy the ticket and then

upgrade.

0:18:440:18:47

IBooks and tickets with air Miles to

go this summer to Los Angeles, five

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of us in the family, business class,

or an air Miles, but the tax is

0:18:500:18:56

huge, almost as much as it would

have cost to go economy.

0:18:560:18:59

Sergas, some decent advice there.

Now, as if you could have avoided

0:18:590:19:04

this.

0:19:040:19:06

Valentines Day is upon us.

0:19:060:19:09

But thanks to the smartphone,

0:19:090:19:11

Cupid now has another string

to his bow.

0:19:110:19:13

The online dating

industry is worth more

0:19:130:19:14

than $5 billion every year -

and mobile users are

0:19:140:19:17

now spoilt for choice.

0:19:170:19:21

Certainly for options, maybe Doctor

-- maybe not for dates!

0:19:210:19:28

In addition to the most popular apps

like Tinder and Bumble,

0:19:280:19:30

today there are apps

which try to find you a potential

0:19:300:19:33

partner using everything

from your music taste to your DNA.

0:19:330:19:35

So how do they all work?

0:19:350:19:37

Tom Davies has more.

0:19:370:19:47

Tinder.

0:19:530:19:54

Tinder.

0:19:540:19:55

I've been known to Tinder a bit.

0:19:550:19:56

Used Tinder but I didn't like it.

0:19:560:19:58

We've all been on Tinder,

of course we've all got the app.

0:19:580:20:01

Too tall, too sporty, too vain.

0:20:010:20:03

Many of the traditional dating

websites try to bag you that

0:20:030:20:05

special someone by asking

you about your personal preferences.

0:20:050:20:07

And while experts agree

on linedating is good

0:20:070:20:09

for widening the pool,

is this the solution

0:20:090:20:11

to finding Mr or Mrs Right?

0:20:110:20:13

The research is now clear that

using individual level

0:20:130:20:15

information for personality,

values and preferences,

0:20:150:20:16

to try to predict who will be

compatible in the future,

0:20:160:20:19

is a losing game.

0:20:190:20:23

It might just set up people

who are similar to them.

0:20:230:20:25

It is a reasonable hypothesis but no

one has the able to find consistent

0:20:250:20:28

evidence for that idea.

0:20:290:20:30

So if data is not helping us to find

out perfect partner,

0:20:300:20:33

what else can be used

to find our soul mates?

0:20:330:20:35

One firm has the answer

and they think love

0:20:350:20:37

is all about chemistry.

0:20:370:20:39

My name is Asma Mirza and I am one

of the co-founders and chief

0:20:390:20:42

executive officer of Pheramor.

0:20:420:20:52

I am Brittany, the chief chemical

officer.

0:20:520:20:56

Pheramor is dating app that matches

people based on genetics.

0:20:560:20:58

We send you a genetic kit.

0:20:590:21:00

We extract a portion of the DNA.

0:21:000:21:02

You are able to see

who you would be attracted to.

0:21:020:21:05

DNA and pheromones are what love

at first sight is all about.

0:21:050:21:10

In the age of the smartphone,

many are pinning our hopes

0:21:100:21:15

on love at first swipe,

rather than at first sight.

0:21:150:21:25

And although there

0:21:250:21:26

are more and more apps available,

now the problem may be there is just

0:21:260:21:30

too much to choose from.

0:21:300:21:35

Did Tom have his shoes on the set

there? Sackable offence! Jane Foley

0:21:350:21:43

is with us.

You walk into the shops

these days, and you begin to see the

0:21:430:21:56

next thing, Valentine's Day, then

Easter, and it seems like a constant

0:21:560:22:01

cycle.

If you don't want to pay for

what the flowers today, you can do

0:22:010:22:05

what my husband didn't buy them for

days early so that you don't have to

0:22:050:22:08

get them full price!

That is better than maybe getting

0:22:080:22:13

them tomorrow, and getting reduced

flowers I! Be grateful you got some

0:22:130:22:18

at all. That's talk about what is in

the papers, and this is a story we

0:22:180:22:21

mentioned earlier about sky and BT

paying over £4 billion to share

0:22:210:22:26

these Premier League TV rights. Is

it more less last year?

I think

0:22:260:22:34

there are two aspect of this. The

first is cost, because per match, it

0:22:340:22:38

is a lot less, so they are paying

together $4.46 billion, three years

0:22:380:22:43

ago it was $5.4 billion, and they

say that there are declining viewing

0:22:430:22:53

numbers. And that I think is

something that the industry does

0:22:530:22:56

need to address. Why are there

declining viewing numbers, is it

0:22:560:23:01

because there is so much choice, or

is it perhaps because to go to see a

0:23:010:23:04

football match now is so expensive

even to watch it on television and

0:23:040:23:08

so difficult, perhaps it is

difficult to get the youngsters

0:23:080:23:11

interested in the sport. So I think

that is something which is

0:23:110:23:14

interesting. The other thing is not

all the packages have been sold yet.

0:23:140:23:18

And according to some of the

analysts, they could go to the likes

0:23:180:23:29

of Facebook.

That is what some of

the analysts were saying.

Perhaps

0:23:290:23:33

these guys will dip their toe in the

water on some of the smaller

0:23:330:23:37

packages, see how that runs, and

then at the next auction, that could

0:23:370:23:44

be the more interesting time to see

whether these online agencies have

0:23:440:23:48

an interest in this.

Staying with

Amazon, this is an interesting

0:23:480:23:52

story, this is to do with

voice-activated devices, Amazon's is

0:23:520:23:59

called the Echo, apparently they had

a TV advertisement that

0:23:590:24:03

inadvertently triggered the speaker

to order some cat food, but it is

0:24:030:24:06

interesting when we talk about the

growth of this in terms of people

0:24:060:24:10

being able to shop and run their

lives. We have asked for people to

0:24:100:24:13

get in touch with their concerns,

whether they use them. On the whole,

0:24:130:24:18

people are saying that they like

using them, but it is a whole new

0:24:180:24:21

business stream for these firms.

It is, but I would say if you are a

0:24:210:24:28

user of Amazon prime, the difference

of course is that you just log on

0:24:280:24:32

and order something online, it

arrived the next day in the post,

0:24:320:24:34

which is brilliant. The difference

with this is it is voice-activated,

0:24:340:24:38

which can be brilliant for some

people who find it more difficult to

0:24:380:24:42

logon. I have a couple of teenagers,

and I would rather have the

0:24:420:24:46

discipline of making them log on,

this is my credit card! But I do

0:24:460:24:50

think that for many people, it could

be a brilliant device. A lot of

0:24:500:24:54

people getting a touch. Say, do you

use them? Ed Wood says, my Geordie

0:24:540:25:01

accent doesn't always work, so there

is a lot of issues around accidents

0:25:010:25:07

of language. Trish says, I don't

trust Google's Alexa. I use it to

0:25:070:25:18

control my smart home setup, heating

and lights, very few issues. This

0:25:180:25:22

person says, I would be very afraid

of a device like that recording

0:25:220:25:27

everything I say privately. That is

the fear, what is it going to record

0:25:270:25:31

and do with it?

We don't understand

technology fully and we know we

0:25:310:25:34

don't understand it fully so we will

always be suspicious of this.

0:25:340:25:38

Jane, nice to see, thank you very

much. My husband just texted me, I

0:25:380:25:45

think he is feeling guilty about the

flowers!

0:25:450:25:48

Mark says, my life is not

interesting enough to be listened

0:25:480:25:51

to. We will leave you with that

thought, same time, same place

0:25:510:25:54

tomorrow. Goodbye. Thanks for

watching. Goodbye.

0:25:540:25:57