28/11/2011 BBC News at Ten

Tonight at 10: On the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, the

spectre of a new recession. A leading forecaster sees fading

growth and surging unemployment in the months ahead. The Chancellor

decides to invest in major building work with more measures to come.

We're going to take our country through these difficult times, we

are going to weather the storm. But we also have to lay the foundations

for future economic success. George Osborne's plan hasn't worked. He

said that cutting faster would be good for growth and jobs. It has

ended up with higher borrowing and failure.

Also tonight: Chris Jeffries, wrongly suspected of murder, tells

the Leveson Inquiry that the press set out to blacken his character.

Sensational, exploitative. As titillating, to appeal in every

possible way to people's voyeuristic instincts. Ahead of the

public sector strike, unions are accused of itching for a fight.

Mike Tindall is reinstated to the England rugby squad, despite the

controversy of the World Cup campaign.

And tributes to the director that gave us Women In Love and other

iconic films in British cinema. I'll be here with Sportsday later

in the Alma BBC News Channel, including a comeback, cards, a

month after retiring David Haye could be back in the ring next

Good evening, on the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement,

there is growing concern that the economy is sliding back into

recession. The international economic organisation, the OECD, is

predicting a collapse in growth and another surge in unemployment in

the months ahead. It comes as George Osborne prepares to deliver

his latest plan to try to boost the Tomorrow, we will all know what he

knows. Just how deep a hole the British economy is in. George, do

you want to stand next to the edge? With friends like Boris Johnson,

who needs enemies? The Chancellor knows that Labour will soon be able

to taunt him with official forecasts showing growth stuttering

and borrowing soaring again. Today, the OECD predicted it could even be

a double-dip recession. The UK has gone back into recession. It is a

very shallow and short-lived recession. But, technically, it is

a recession. The Chancellor is still here in the Treasury, late at

night, working on the Autumn Statement he will deliver tomorrow.

It will confirm what the forecasters and pundits have long

predicted, that growth is going to go down and that borrowing is going

to go up, and dramatically. There will, though, be a real impact in

the sights and sounds of George Osborne having to confirm what his

opponents have long predicted in front of an angry House of Commons.

Today, George Osborne tried to show that he can get Britain building

and growing again, without actually increasing public spending.

OECD is predicting deep recessions in many European countries. That is

a challenge for Britain. Now, what we can do with our policies,

dealing with our debt, is we can take Britain safely through the

storm. That is, of course, a key priority. At the same time we have

to lay the foundations for future economic success. The Chancellor

unveiled what he called a national infrastructure plan, with a mighty

big aim. To invest �30 billion over the next decade in road and rail

projects, power stations and broadband links. The detail is much

more vague. Ministers hope that �20 billion will come from private

investors. They are promising �5 billion from government savings.

They say a further �5 billion could come, but only after the next

election. If the money does flow, it will pay to expand the A14,

which serves the port of Felixstowe, to ease congestion on the M3 and to

use the whole shoulder to speed up traffic on sections of the M25.

Just three amongst 40 high-profile projects. Not nearly enough, say

Labour, to tackle the mess that we are in. The OECD are now

forecasting our economy stagnating, growing less well and the US and

Europe. Now is the time to change course, if not we are going to end

up with the economy continuing to underperform, unemployment rising

and more borrowing, not less. Chancellor will use his economic

day of reckoning to insist that Britain must stick to his plan. His

opponents will say, when you lie in As Nick was saying, the headline

figures to be unveiled tomorrow will all be considerably worse than

he had hoped for when he took office 18 months ago, and even more

recently. But what are his options at this stage? Stephanie Flanders

is here to explain. When he came into office, the

Chancellor said he wanted his Autumn Statement to beat Loki, not

the set-piece events they became under Gordon Brown. But it hasn't

turned out that way. There will be important economic news in

tomorrow's speech, most of it plant. At the time of the Budget, Mr Ross

Brawn was hoping the economy would grow by 2.1% this year and 2.6%

next year. The consensus now among independent forecasters is that

growth will be less than half as fast, just 1% in 2011 and in 2012.

That new OECD report predicts growth next year of just 0.5%.

Lower growth means higher public spending and lower tax revenues. It

also means higher than expected borrowing for the rest of the

parliament. We are still borrowing �120 billion or more this year. The

public debt continues to rise. The Chancellor has set himself some

targets for reducing the deficit over the next four or five years.

If he is going to meet those targets, there is really not a

great deal we can do in terms of significantly increasing spending

tomorrow. Mr Osborne's big promise was that he would get rid of most

of the structural part of the deficit, the debt that will not go

away with economic growth, over five years. At the time of the

Budget, he was on course to do that a year early, in 2014. Tomorrow we

expected to say he is still on course, that he has lost the extra

breathing room and the five years in question have moved forward to

2015, after the election. The new forecast for borrowing and the last

full year of this parliament will show just how much our fortunes

have changed. Back in March, the Office For Budget Responsibility

predicted borrowing in that year of �37 billion. The consensus now will

be more than double that. That �81 billion forecast is actually higher

than the OBR predicted would happen under Labour's old plans back in

20th June 10. But a lot has happened since then, not least the

crisis in the euro-zone, which has probably already caused a recession

across the Channel and may yet cause one in the UK. Time for a

stimulus? Labour would say so. In the city, many agree with the

Chancellor that it is not worth the risk. A slower pace of austerity

would be more positive for UK growth. The problem is, we do not

know the point at which those that they and the UK money would take

flight. What we do now is that, at the point where that is reached,

the austerity required to regain that confidence would have a more

negative effect on the UK economy than we are currently seeing.

weeks, ministers and officials have been preparing us for bad news

tomorrow. But maybe we shouldn't forget to be disappointed when we

see the numbers in black-and-white. For all the bells and whistles, the

big message from the statement will be that Britain's economic

prospects are a good deal bleaker than the Chancellor hoped.

Let's go live to Downing Street and Nick Robinson outside Number 11. As

you look ahead to tomorrow, set it in some context for us. You have

already told us about some of the things to expect, what else can we

expect? The main thing is simply the impact of those statistics. The

way in which one minister had seen the figures put it to me is this,

the light at the end of the tunnel is receding. That has huge

political consequences. The Chancellor will insist he is

sticking to Plan A, that he is not going to spend more public money,

he is not going to borrow more money in order to get the economy

moving again. But, of course, he will be borrowing a lot more simply

because the economy is not growing. That means he will not be able to

promise that the deficit will be sorted as a problem come the next

election. It will be a problem that goes after it. It has to be dealt

with after it, with huge consequences for politics between

now and election, and beyond. We will get some specific measures

tomorrow. Some of the people that will have to paperback

infrastructure work, for example. A little bit more on the bank levy, I

am told. There will be a little bit more restriction on tax credits as

well. There is some gain for a few, the Government is promising that it

will double the number of deprived two-year-olds that get help with

childcare and education. The bottom 20% currently get care. The bottom

40% will get it in future. 130,000 new two-year-olds. That will be one

good piece of news. There will not Their Leveson Inquiry into

newspaper standards has heard from a man who was wrongly suspected of

involvement in the murder of Joanna Yeates. Her body was found in

Bristol on Christmas Day last year. Christopher Jefferies said he had

been vilified by the press in a frenzied campaign to blacken his

Christopher Jefferies, the figure on the left, has changed his

appearance since his image received such unwelcome attention nearly a

year ago. This is how he looked last December, when he was arrested

over the murder of Joanna Yeates. Christopher Jefferies was innocent.

But his reputation was torn apart by the press. The whole slanting of

the reporting was intended to be as sensational, as exploitative, as

titillating and to appeal in every possible way to people's four-year

stick instincts. -- voyeuristic instincts. The stories were so

distorted that he had to go into hiding when he was released. For a

period after Rye was released, I was effectively under house arrest.

I went from France to friends, rather as if I was a recusant

priest at the time of the Reformation, I suppose, going from

safe house to safe house. singer Charlotte Church has been in

the public eye since she was a teenager. She described almost

daily surveillance, cameras hidden in her garden and offers to

boyfriends to talk about her private life. Why is it OK that an

editor or somebody senior in a newspaper could pay an unemployed

boy from Cardiff tens of thousands of pounds to reveal intimate,

sexual details about another 17- year-old girl? The inquiry has

heard for five days from people who feel they have been victims of the

press. Tomorrow it will hear from a former tabloid reporter who became

disillusioned about what he was asked to do and a Guardian reporter

who, more than anyone, exposed the scale of the phone hacking scandal.

A British soldier killed in Afghanistan yesterday has been

named as 20-year-old Rifleman Sheldon Steel. The Ministry of

Defence said he died after an explosion in Babaji, in the Lashkar

Gah district. From Leeds, he served with the 5th Battalion, the rivals,

David Cameron has chaired a meeting of ministers looking at plans for

this Wednesday' strike which is expected to be one of the biggest

for decades. Public sector workers are walking out at planned changes

to their pensions. Teachers and border staff and civil servants are

expected to take part. Michael Gove accused the union leaders of

itching for a fight. They keep our borders secure, they help us when

we are sick, they empty our bin, clean our hospitals and teach our

children, but on Wednesday they are going on strike. Today the

ministers made clear what they think of some of the union leaders.

Hardliners, militants, ieching for -- itching for a fight. They want

families inconvenienced. For mothers to give up a day's work to

pay for child care as the schools will be closed. Two decades ago,

Michael Gove went on strike himself, but today he urged the teachers and

public sector workers to think again. But strikes and

demonstrations there will be. The Government wants public sector

workers to may more into the pensions and work longer, many,

they say, will get a pension as good as now, if not better, but the

unions feel that the members are unfairly targeted, and many will be

struggling to pay more. We are not itching for a fight. We need an

agreement, but we need the ministers to reach that agreement

with us. Including Michael Gove. Some clearly want to blame the

strike on militant bosses, but other ministers fear that this

confrontational language could make a deal on pensions harder in the

long-term. So, whrfplt It may be a bit of hassle for the parents, but

everyone has to do what they have to do. I have to take time off work,

but I'm full of passion for what they have to do, I support what

they are doing. Well, I have sympathy for the workers, but I am

concerned about the children mitting out. Ed Miliband said he

did not want to demonise the strikers, but today, finally, he

said he did not support the industrial action. He found that

not everyone was sympathetic to the Civil Service. How is it that the

Civil Service and the public sector workers are not able to accept the

position we are in? Nobody wants to see the strikes, they are

disruptive as you say. Least of all, the people are losing pay from

going on a day's strike. But for now, millions do appear ready to

lose a pay to make their point. This afternoon, David Cameron

gathered his ministers to prepare for the disruption, but with the

unions warning of more strikes to come, there is much at stake.

Coming up tonight: Nestle launches an investigation to stop the use of

child labour by its African suppliers. In Egypt, people have

turned up in their millions on the opening day of elections for a new

Parliament. It is the first national vote since Hosni Mubarak

was driven from power earlier in the year. The contest takes place

over several weeks, so far few security problems have been

reported despite the unrest of recent days. Jeremy Bowen has been

reporting in the Egyptian capital. Here in Cairo, they had to wait

longer than expected as the ballots and the other official paperwork

arrived late, but they were patient. The right to vote at last, it made

people who had spent their lives under a dictator feel like citizens.

This is the first time in pie life, me, my wife and my son, we are

going together today. We are feeling this is a good day. This

day, it will be a part of history. The ballot papers were enormous.

This district had 122 names to choose from. But no-one seemed to

mind. They had elections under the old regime, but they were fix sod

most did not bother to vote. Not today. TRANSLATION: It's the first

time. I want it to be good for everyone. Whoever wins, I just hope

that they don't stay forover! Getting a free vote was a big part

of the revolution for a lot of Egyptians and its finally happening.

There are still serious questions, though, about the amount of power

that the army wants to retain after civilian politicians are elected.

Outside, the army handled the security. But apart from a row

about queue-jumping... It was peaceful. Some Egyptians believe

that this election is flawed because these men, senior generals,

will still run the country after the votes are counted. However the

election goes, if the economy is not sorted out, political stability

will not be possible. 700,000 new people enter the workforce every

year. Many never get a proper job. Amr Moussa, a front-runner for next

year's presidential vote, which he says will finally end military rule,

believes that this election is the best possible way forward. The vast

majority of Egyptians want to have the state respected, and there is

no other way to respect the state and have a heavyweight Egypt, apart

from with a good government, dem OK rasy in the future and a good

Government. We are going to make it. -- democracy. This day is not

perfect, but it historic. -- it is historic. The England rugby union

player, Mike Tindall, has been reinstated to the national squad.

He had been punished recently for bad behaviour during the recent

World Cup campaign. Our Sports Correspondent is with me here, Olly,

what do you make of this? This is a victory of sorts for Mike Tindall.

It is worth going back to the start of the World Cup, to one of many

indiscretions that it is felt that de-railed their campaign with all

of the negative publicity. We go to a night out in which they beat

Argentina. A rather infamous night. Mike Tindall joined by a couple of

other players. They went to a bar it involved a dwarf-throwing

contest. Mike Tindall was caught on CCTV, Mike Tindall, of course,

newly married into the Royal Family, also with a mystery blonde. It was

felt he was handed out a hefty fine. That it was unprecedented.

Extraordinary. That it was felt that Mike Tindall misled the

English management about his whereabouts at the time. But it was

also said that Mike did not mislead the management, that there was no

suggestion of any sexual impropriety of any nature with the

woman in question, but they do feel that his behaviour was short of

what was expected. This is difficult for Rob Andrew. He is

fighting fires at Twickenham. It has been a difficult moment for his

position being undermined and Tintin at 33 to be allowed back

into the England squad, it is hardly a step forward if they do

let him back into the squad. Thank -- Mike Tin dan dal. The chocolate

industry, and Nestle are hoping to stamp out child labour. We have

this report. A month ago we filmed these children harvesting coca in

the Ivory Coast. The work is dangerous. They are kept out of

school. It is illegal. One said he had not seen his family for three

years. Cocoa is the raw product that makes chocolate. Far away from

the poverty of West Africa, Nestle, the world's biggest food company

has declared that the present situation can't go on. It is clear

that the way cocoa can cultivated today in the type of environment

that it is done with the use of child labour, with the number of

intermeetaries in the supply chain, it is not sustainable. Cocoa's

journey to the shops is complicated and filled with middle men. Nestle

wants to licence some of the stages. It will track the cocoa from the

remotest places through checkpoints and pay-offs to the warehouse.

Sacks of cocoa arrive in the warehouse with no label as to where

it was grown or under what conditions. It is here that the

cocoa begins its international journey, that ends up in chocolate

shops all around the world. It's shipped out as part of a global

business, worth more than �60 billion a year. Yet most chocolate

wrappers don't state where the cocoa was farmed or whether it's

been tainted by child labour. Campaigners say that the chocolate

industry has made similar promises before. The big chocolate companies,

including Nestle, need to apologise for the fact they did not keep

their first promise, and tell us why we should trust them to keep

their promise this time around. Nestle's investigation into child

labour on the cocoa farms begins next month. Ken, one of Britain's

most koifl film directors has died at the age of 84. He had been

receiving treatment after a series of strokes. Ken Russell began his

career making documentaries, he is best-remembered for some of the

most talked about films in the 60s, and the 70s, including Women In

Love and defendant defendant. Ken Russell's portrait of the Composer,

Elgar, one of the series of acclaimed art documentaries he made

for the BBC in the 1960s. They were beautiful, seductive and self-

indulgent. They marked him out as a film-maker of talent, some said

genius. Camera speed... 339, take one. At the BBC he learned his

craft as a director and dropd his trademark style, flamboyant and

visually extravagant. He moved into cinema where the second major

feature, Women In Love was acclaimed as a masterpiece.

shan't save them, father. There is no knowing where they are. I would

plead guilty! But as time went on his films became more extreme

defendant l, The Devils reflected his fascination with sex and

religion and was widely panned. started to make films at that time.

He disturbed me. Whether you were enjoying it or not. You had a

strong reaction to the work either way. This is rare. Tomy, made in

1975, was typically overblown. It followed more are than 30 years in

which his films grew less successful and the difficulties he

faced in financing them proved even greater. I sent a script to Channel

4 the other day. It came back about six months later, signed by

somebody I had never heard of, a name, totally unknown to me, "Thank

you for your script it is not cinematic enough." I nearly went

mad! Not cinematic enough from me?! He was, and his films remain the

work of a genius. He was extraordinary, and like all

geniuses, sometimes the films were much less than genius. Better to