23/11/2017 BBC News at Ten

Tonight at ten, a warning that

British workers face a second decade

without a rise in average earnings.

Experts say the continuing pressure

on wages is astonishing,

and yesterday's Budget forecasts

are described as grim.

It looks like we've got at least

another five years to go before

we get anywhere near to having

earnings back where

they were in 2008.

That is wholly unprecedented.

But the government says it's

confident it can defy

the gloomy forecasts,

claiming the Budget has set

Britain on the right path.

The Chancellor did a very

good job yesterday.

What the Chancellor was doing

was setting out how we will

ensure we have an economy

fit for the future.

We'll be looking at the prospect

of a second decade without pay

growth, and at the persistent

problem of low productivity.

Also tonight...

Hundreds of thousands

of Rohingya Muslim refugees might be

able to return home after a deal

is signed by Bangladesh and Myanmar.

In Argentina, families get reports

of an explosion on a submarine

which went missing over a week ago.

An exclusive look inside the Saudi

hotel where prominent figures

continue to be held as part

of a campaign against corruption.

As far as detention centres go, this

one is beyond compare. Luxury

swimming pool, restaurant, a gym.

And we talk to the British actor

widely tipped for an Oscar

for his film portrayal

of Sir Winston Churchill.

And coming up on Sportsday on BBC

News, we'll have the latest

from the Europa League.

Arsenal top their group

despite losing in Cologne.

Good evening.

British workers are facing

an unprecedented two decades

without any rise in average

earnings, according to the leading

economic research group,

the Institue for Fiscal Studies.

It says the forecasts published

with yesterday's Budget made

for pretty grim reading,

with government borrowing still

going up and austerity continuing.

It's predicted that average earnings

in 2022 could still be less

than they were in 2008.

But the Chancellor has said he's

confident he can defy

the gloomy predictions,

as our economics editor

Kamal Ahmed reports.

It can all seem a little distant.

The Treasury, the grand

office of state.

But what it says matters for all

of us and that growth downgrade

yesterday is likely to leave

millions of people worse off.

Out shopping in

Basildon, Essex, Adele

and her daughter Emily.

It's a struggle making ends meet.

I mean I've been working years

and I haven't had a pay rise at all.

And I now have a child.

Everything else has gone up.

Rent's gone up, food's gone up,

all the other prices, gas,

electric.

We are constantly getting told this

is going up, this is going

up, but nothing else

is going up with it,

so you are literally working

to live, that's all you're

doing, working to survive

every single day.

I asked the head of the Institute

for Fiscal Studies why

that growth downgrade

mattered so much.

Economic forecasts might not sound

terribly important, but when

they mean that your earnings, you're

living standards, are going to be

much lower than you expected,

then it's time to listen.

Earnings in the early

2020s will still be below

where they were in 2008, making this

easily the worst decade and a bit

for living standards.

Not just in living

memory, but a long time

before that, too.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor

visiting a college

for training builders.

Today Tory MPs were

patting Philip Hammond on

the back, saying he had delivered

a successful budget.

But Theresa May knows she has

to convince people like Adele

that the government is on her side.

What the budget was

about was about jobs

for people up and down

the

country.

It was about ensuring people

are in work with that income

for their family.

That effort to seize

the opportunities of the

future has to overcome

a major hurdle.

The living standards squeeze.

At the time of the financial

crisis, average earnings

were £24,500.

They fell sharply as

the financial crisis bit.

And look at how slow

the recovery has been.

By 2022 people could still be

earning less on average than they

were ten years ago.

That is the big question.

Why aren't real incomes rising?

There are a number

of answers to that.

Firstly, the government

of whatever party that

over decades have simply failed

to invest enough in the real things

that matter, like our skills.

The financial crisis,

which sucked so

much money out of the economy.

And the businesses themselves.

Some of which seem

to prefer to rely on

cheap labour rather

than investing in things

like machinery that

would

make them more efficient and mean

they could afford a pay rise for

those they employ.

Tonight, Labour supporters

gathered in the West

Midlands and cheered

Jeremy Corbyn as he laid

out the case against

the

government.

They racked up more borrowing

and more debt, wages are

falling, growth is falling,

investment is falling.

Public services are

at risk of closing

altogether.

People have been helped,

the Tories say, with record

employment levels

a higher living wage.

And tonight the government was

putting the finishing touches to the

next effort at boosting the economy.

The industrial strategy.

Stand by for that next week.

Kamal Ahmed, BBC News.

The Chancellor identified

what he called the stubbornly flat

level of British productivity as one

of the biggest factors behind

the gloomy forecasts

for economic growth.

But Philip Hammond insisted

the Government had measures in place

to deal with the problem.

Our business editor Simon Jack asks

why productivity levels

in the UK are so poor -

and what can be done

to improve them.

It's the word of the week.

Maybe the decade.

It means the value of work done

per worker per hour.

If it goes up, the economy grows

and so do pay and living standards.

When it doesn't, they don't.

Right now, it isn't.

Now, when people hear our

productivity is low, some people

wonder, are workers being accused

of being lazy?

But it's not really that at all.

I could be the best

typist in the world,

the hardest working person,

but there will be a limit

to how many letters,

for example, I could write.

To really get things done,

to be more productive,

I need one of these.

Better equipment and better training

is a need recognised

by Britain's biggest companies.

I mean all the data suggest we do

have a productivity problem.

It has flat lined largely

for the last few years.

And I think everybody

recognises that.

And I think both companies

and government and, indeed,

education in general,

we all have a stake in making that,

fixing that, making that better.

The government's answer has been

to get big companies like BT to pay

half a percent of their wage bill

into an apprenticeship kitty that

smaller companies can also use.

But the latest figures

show it's not working.

This time last year 117,000 people

started an apprenticeship.

At the same time this year,

that number was only 48,000.

A fall of a whopping 59%.

So what's going wrong?

The implementation of this policy

has been diabolical.

The inflexible approach to training,

the 10% charge to employers

when they used to have it for free,

and then the procurement

process for providers.

All three of them have

caused immense problems.

And that is why the

numbers have fallen.

The problem doesn't

seem to be demand from

the apprentices themselves.

My mum always wanted me to go

to university but I always had

to tell her that going to university

doesn't give you the better,

best thing ever.

So, like, going university gives

you a degree which is really good,

however, doing an apprenticeship

you get paid, you get

better opportunities,

learn skills, meet new people.

Business groups are certain

it is an essential part

of solving our economic problems.

If we're going to tackle

the productivity puzzle,

we really need to see a massive

increase in training,

and that means getting people doing

apprenticeships in the right areas,

the right industries.

It's one of the top three issues

that our members tell us

they want to see solved.

The government said today it remains

committed to providing 3 million

apprenticeships by 2020.

To hit that target,

the plan may need a rewrite.

Simon Jack, BBC News.

As people consider the impact

of the Budget, the Prime Minister

will be in Brussels tomorrow

for meetings with other European

leaders, including Donald Tusk,

the president of the European

Council.

Our deputy political editor

John Pienaar is there.

The Chancellor saying economic

confidence will grow when there is

more clarity around the Brexit

process. What is the prospect for

that?

Well, the really big economic

challenges, whether it's a slowing

economy or NHS funding or public

sector pay, they still loom as large

as ever. The Chancellor has learned

to at least put on a smile and sound

optimistic while delivering bad

news. He's avoided compounding the

government's problems with that

budget. Now that will be some

comfort to Theresa May because with

a disappointing election behind her

and Brexit still ahead, she has more

than enough problems than she can

easily cope with. It is a very

crucial points now for Brexit.

Because rushing up in the next few

weeks in mid-December there will be

an EU summit where EU leaders will

decide whether to break the deadlock

on the Brexit negotiations. If

Britain can show that it's willing

to write a big enough check by way

of a divorce settlement, something

of 40 billion or so, and that it has

an answer to remodelling and

re-managing the borders of Northern

Ireland, then those EU leaders say

they will be willing to talk trade.

If not, if that does not start to

happen at this coming December

summit, the whole Brexit plan could

be seriously delayed and possibly

even derailed. The process of

building up to that big decision

start here in Brussels tomorrow.

When Theresa May meets the EU

Council president Donald Tusk that's

the sort of board of directors of EU

leaders. Then there will be more

talks and more crucial meetings and

much more diplomatic work behind the

scenes before the decision is

finally taken. But we will, I think,

see the decision starting to become

clear over the course of the next

two crucial weeks or so.

Many

thanks, John Pienaar in Brussels.

Bangladesh and Myanmar have signed

a deal that could help to repatriate

more than 600,000 Rohingya Muslims

who've fled Myanmar

in recent months.

The Bangladeshi authorities say

displaced people could begin

to return within months.

But aid agencies say their safety

must be guaranteed.

My colleague Reeta Chakrabarti

reports from the port

of Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh.

A mass of humanity has made its home

here, a city made up

entirely of people who fled.

They arrive with stories

of being shot at and raped

and their children being killed.

Would they, could they

return to Myanmar?

TRANSLATION:

We won't go back.

We were brutally tortured.

Young men were put in prison

and houses were set on fire.

Rashida Huq and her husband lost

a son when they escaped.

Here, at his grave,

Rashida breaks down.

We saw her with her

son two months ago.

The 15-year-old had

trodden on a landmine laid

in Myanmar at the border

where they cross to Bangladesh.

Two days after these pictures

were filmed, he died.

Then, she told us, she could not

bear even to say the word Myanmar.

Here, in the cramped shelter

she shares with her husband and six

other family members,

Rashida says she won't return.

TRANSLATION:

Our hearts

were broken in Myanmar.

What does pain mean?

I had two sons injured in Myanmar.

Will we get peace there?

If everybody goes back, we will.

But our hearts don't

tell us to go back.

They don't, they don't.

But according to the agreement

between Bangladesh and Myanmar,

some of these people could start

to return in just two months' time.

Yet there are no details of how

their safety will be guaranteed,

nor of any international monitoring,

making observers cautious.

One thing is for sure,

for refugees to be able

to exercise their fundamental right

to return home, the conditions that

made them flee in the first place

need to be meaningfully addressed.

Refugees need to be able to decide

voluntarily to return in a safe

and dignified manner.

Bangladesh has been under

immense strain with this

huge influx of refugees,

so it's understandably keen to find

a deal for their return.

Myanmar's motives are less clear,

but the country will be under

the spotlight next week with a visit

from the Pope.

Without cast-iron guarantees

for the Rohingyas' safety,

many will have serious doubts

about today's announcement.

Reeta Chakrabarti, BBC News,

Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh.

A brief look at some of the day's

other news stories...

Jon Venables, who was convicted

of murdering the Liverpool toddler

James Bulger in 1993,

is back in prison

while police investigate child abuse

images on a computer.

He was freed on licence in 2001,

after being jailed for

life at the age of 10.

The former Labour minister

Ivan Lewis has been

suspended by the party

while allegations of inappropriate

behaviour are investigated.

Mr Lewis denies any wrongdoing

or non-consensual behaviour,

but says he's sorry if he has made

women who work with

him feel awkward.

The jury at the trial

of an Army sergeant

accused of trying to murder his wife

by tampering with her parachute

has been discharged,

after failing to reach verdicts.

Emile Cilliers denied

all the charges.

The court had been

sitting for 7 weeks.

The Crown Prosecution Service says

it will seek a retrial.

The European Commission has

cancelled the UK's turn

to host the European Capital of

Culture.

Dundee, Nottingham, Leeds,

Milton Keynes, Belfast

and Londonderry had all already

submitted bids to hold

the title in 2023.

The Government says it's

deeply disappointed.

The Commission said it was

a concrete consequence of Brexit.

The Argentine Navy says it believes

there was an explosion close

to the last known location

of a submarine that went missing

over a week ago with 44

crew members on board.

The blast - described

as abnormal and violent -

was detected around the time

the submarine sent its last signal.

Britain is part of a huge

international search effort that's

under way to locate the vessel.

Our defence correspondent

Jonathan Beale has the latest.

It's known as the Silent Service.

But there's been no communication

from the San Juan and her 44 crew

for more than a week.

The search had already

reached a critical phase,

with fears this submarine would soon

be running out of air.

Now, more worrying news.

Scientists confirm they've detected

an abnormal sound underwater

near her last known location.

An Argentine navy spokesman

said it was a short,

single, violent event,

consistent with explosion.

It's a bitter blow for relatives.

Just a few days ago they'd been

wrongly told there may have been

attempts by the submarine

to make contact.

Now they feel betrayed.

TRANSLATION:

I feel cheated.

They are swines.

They manipulated us.

TRANSLATION:

We have no

more saints to pray to,

no more saints to ask.

Aircraft and ships from more

than half a dozen nations have been

involved in what is still officially

a search and rescue mission,

at times in heavy seas.

This, the view from

the Royal Navy ship HMS

Protector earlier this week.

But so far, nothing.

The San Juan left the southern tip

of Argentina almost two weeks ago.

She was on a 2000-mile journey back

to Mar del Plata when she reported

an electrical failure.

Her last communication,

halfway home, was last Wednesday -

the same day they have now

identified that sound

like an explosion.

If it was to be an explosion,

or an implosion, more correctly,

it's very likely to have

come from submarine.

There's nothing else in that

area which could have

caused that sort of noise.

It now seems unlikely

their prayers will be answered.

For the families of the 44 crew,

hopes of a miraculous rescue have

all but disappeared.

Jonathan Beale, BBC News.

The Football Association

and the players' union have launched

a major study into the health

of 15,000 former professionals

as part of an investigation

into the long-term risks

of heading a football.

The study will ask whether

professional footballers are more

likely to develop brain conditions

such as dementia than

the rest of the population.

But, as our sports editor Dan Roan

reports, authorities

are being criticised for being slow

to consider the problem.

That's a good ball,

a little flick on!

It's in the net!

Heading the ball has

been a part of football

since the game was invented,

but in recent years there's been

mounting concern over

the danger it could pose

to players' long-term health.

And today the FA announced it'd

finally commissioned

a landmark study into links

between football and dementia.

The expert leading

the research telling me just

how significant it is.

We're going to be as thorough

as we can possibly be.

We're looking at in excess

of 15,000 former footballers,

and matching them to somewhere

around 45,000 population control.

So we get a good sense

of what their numbers look

like against what we would expect

from the population.

Nodding it on.

15 years ago, a coroner ruled that

former England striker Jeff Astle

died aged 59 as a result

of industrial disease -

dementia caused by repeated

heading had contributed

to the cause of death.

One of hundreds of players diagnosed

with degenerative brain

conditions after retirement,

Astle's family have been

at the heart of the campaign

demanding the sport's authorities

honour their duty of care

to former professionals.

The FA have a responsibility

across the game in its entirety.

The PFA are there

for player welfare.

But, yes, they're doing it,

but I still believe they've

been cornered into this.

They've been cornered

into doing the research.

It's something that's

not going to go away.

Former England captain Alan Shearer,

still the Premier League's leading

goal scorer and a player renowned

for his heading, highlighted

the issue in a recent BBC

documentary, undergoing a series

of medical tests on his own brain.

I'm pleased that eventually

the authorities have listened

and are now going to do the research

that should have

been done years ago.

We can't look back, unfortunately,

we can only look forward now

and support Willie and his team.

And, hopefully, they will be able

to start and get some answers now.

Today, the FA said it felt compelled

to conduct what it vowed would be

one of the most comprehensive

studies ever into this issue.

Further proof that it must now

address one of the greatest

challenges facing its future,

both in the professional ranks

and at the grass-roots.

Despite the obvious health benefits

for children who play sport,

there are now calls for heading

to be banned for under 11s

until the health risks

are better understood.

And football's not alone.

Rugby has had to change its rules

over the assessment

of head injuries.

American football's concussion

crisis, meanwhile, has resulted

in a $1 billion settlement

after former players sued

the NFL over brain disease.

In goes the cross, and Rose!

This has become an issue sport can

no longer afford to ignore.

Dan Roan, BBC News, Wembley.

Dozens of prominent Saudi figures

continue to be held at a luxury

hotel in the capital Riyadh

following their detention

earlier this month.

They're being held after

an anti-corruption drive

by the new crown prince,

Mohammed bin Salman.

It's understood they'll be allowed

to go if they hand over

70% of their wealth -

an overall figure that would amount

to hundreds of billions of pounds.

Our chief international

correspondent Lyse Doucet

is the first journalist to be

allowed inside the hotel

and she sent this report.

It contains some flashing images.

We drive in under police escort,

just past midnight.

No-one enters here now

without official permission.

The world's most talked about hotel.

Riyadh's most palatial, most

prestigious, now a gilded prison.

I'm taken in by Saudi

officials and told, don't

film faces, don't record

conversations.

Here in the early hours

of the morning, there are

still people in the lobby

drinking coffee as you'd

find in any of the five

star hotels here in the capital.

Most of the people who have now

been forced to stay here

are keeping to themselves.

Trying to limit any further damage

to their reputation.

Their mobile phones have been

taken away from them.

But there is a hotline

that's available to them.

They can call their lawyers,

family members, even leading

members of the companies they're

still trying to keep running.

Some of the biggest Saudi

billionaires are under hotel arrest.

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal,

luxury hotelier himself.

At least 11 Princes.

Miteb bin Abdullah headed

the elite National Guard.

His young cousin,

Mohammad bin Salman, is

driving this spectacular dragnet.

For the last two years building

files on alleged corruption, abuses

of power, while consolidating

his own power.

I'm taken to meet one suspect.

He doesn't give me his name.

He says he spends his

time with his lawyer,

focusing on his case,

I'm told not to ask about it.

But I get a briefing.

Senior officials conducting

this crackdown say it's

not a formal investigation yet.

They call it a friendly process.

But it's clearly fraught.

We're being told that

when people were brought here

around midnight on November 4th,

they were understandably angry.

Some of them thought

this would just be a

show.

And it wouldn't last.

And then when they realised

they were here to

stay, they were furious,

almost everyone here,

95% I was told, are willing to make

a deal to give back

what are said to be substantial sums

of money in order to get out of

here.

And, so far, seven

people have walked free.

I was told they proved

their innocence.

Many Saudis welcome

an end to the rampant

corruption in the kingdom.

There are risks, too.

The ambitious crown prince risks

creating enemies and uncertainty,

which could endanger the very

stability and reforms he knows his

kingdom so badly needs.

The crown prince hopes

everyone will be

checking out by

the end of this year.

The longer this ordeal drags on,

the more questions will be asked

here and abroad about

what's going on inside.

Lyse Doucet, BBC News,

at the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

A major clean-up is under way

in parts of northern England

and north Wales which were affected

by flooding last night.

There were flash floods in Llangefni

and more than 70 people had to be

rescued from their homes

near Lancaster after nearly two

inches of rain fell in 24 hours.

Roads were closed and rail

services were affected.

Shares in Centrica, the company

which owns British Gas,

suffered their biggest ever

one-day loss today.

The value of the company was down

over a fifth at one point today,

before ending 15% lower.

The losses came after it revealed

that it had lost more than 800,000

customer accounts since June.

Centrica said it has also been

affected by lower demand for energy,

because of mild weather in the early

part of the autumn.

New rules are being introduced

to stop internet providers

making misleading claims

about their broadband packages.

From May, companies will only be

allowed to advertise a top speed

if at least half of their customers

can access it at peak times.

The British actor Gary Oldman says

that playing Sir Winston Churchill

in a new film about the wartime

leader has been the most daunting

challenge of his career.

His portrayal of Churchill has been

widely tipped for an Oscar,

as our entertainment correspondent

Lizo Mzimba reports.

You cannot reason with a tiger

when your head is in its mouth!

Gary Oldman, at perhaps his most

powerful and charismatic.

Would you stop interrupting me

while I am interupting you!?

Almost unrecognisable

for a performance he hopes

truly embodies Churchill.

Before we learn!

Well, I knew I didn't look like him.

I thought that with some work

I could approximate the voice.

You get to a point where it

has to become creation,

rather than impersonation.

You try to get the spirit

of the essence of the man.

Let me see your true

qualities, your courage.

My poor judgment.

Your lack of vanity.

My iron will.

Your sense of humour.

Ho, ho ho.

Like Churchill, out of public view,

Oldman did have occasional doubts.

The work that is most

terrifying is often the work

that turns out the best,

because, to begin with,

it seemed insurmountable.

It was just such

a mountain to climb.

Churchill, of course,

has been played so many

times by so many people.

You've got this image of Churchill,

but is that contaminated

or in any way influenced

by Albert Finney as Churchill?

The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

doing pretty well.

Or Robert Hardy as Churchill?

They will soon be looking for war!

So I went to the newsreel.

I saw a man who was dynamic,

youthful, full of energy.

I believe we are to

meet regularly...

Darkest Hour doesn't reach UK

cinemas until next January.

But Gary Oldman is already

odds-on favourite to win

the Academy Award for Best Actor.

If I was going to get an Oscar,

I can't think of a better

part to get it for,

let's put it that way.

We shall fight on the beaches!

A portrayal of the past that many

expect to make history

in the film world, too.

We shall never surrender!

Lizo Mzimba, BBC News.

The Ashes Series is under way

and in just over an hour's time

England will resume batting

against Australia in

the first Test in Brisbane.

England won the toss

and chose to bat first,

ending the day on 196 for 4.

Live to the Gabba stadium

and our correspondent Andy Swiss.

Yes, welcome to Brisbane. How many

times have we seen England blown

away here on day one of an Ashes

Series? Well, it didn't happen this

time. Yes, Australia's bowlers did

battle back, but England's batsman

will resume with a real chance.

It is almost a national hobby,

beating England is what Australia

have done so often here.

And their fans flock

to the Gabba with a

confidence to match

the visitors' caution.

Without Ben Stokes, England's

low-key line-up began as the Ashes

underdogs, and after opting to bat,

it didn't take long to see why.

Mitchell Starc snaring

Alastair Cook for just two.

Australia's paceman pounding in.

The verbal bouncers flying.

But instead of a

collapse, a comeback.

Not many expected James Vince to be

picked for this tour,

but he set about showing why.

The hosts' much hyped attack looking

toothless, until this.

Stoneman emphatically bowled

by Pat Cummins for 53,

before a moment of brilliance

in the field from Nathan Lyon.

After his pre-Ashes fighting talk,

some way to back it up.

Vince run out for 83

and suddenly the pendulum had

veered Australia's way.

Joe Root surviving an LBW

decision, but not for long.

The review showed he was out,

the skipper gone for 15.

Before a few morale-boosting blows

from Moeen Ali helped guide England

through to the close.

For the fans, then, a first day

of fluctuating fortunes.

England's impressive start followed

by Australia's late resurgence.

The early signs suggest this

could be a competitive series.

An absorbing start to the Ashes,

then, but England know the hard work

has only just begun.

Yes, England will resume on 196-4.

They are actually starting play half

hour early because of yesterday's

rain delay. With the game so finely

poised, there is a real sense that

today's first session could be

crucial.

Thanks very much, and Andy Swiss

looking