Former Conservative prime minister John Major's speech in London on Brexit negotiations, from Wednesday 28 February.
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on Friday, he will find out that
what we need is a hard-headed | 0:00:00 | 0:00:00 | |
leader, not a fairy godmother. Thank
you very much. | 0:00:00 | 0:00:12 | |
And thank you very much and good
afternoon everyone. | 0:00:48 | 0:00:52 | |
I would like to express my thanks to
the Creative Industries Federation, | 0:00:52 | 0:00:55 | |
Somerset House Trust,
and Tech London Advocates | 0:00:55 | 0:00:57 | |
for the opportunity
to speak here today. | 0:00:57 | 0:01:02 | |
I must confess when I excepted, I
hadn't imagined it was good to be | 0:01:02 | 0:01:08 | |
quite such a busy week for Brexit,
but perhaps that is appropriate. | 0:01:08 | 0:01:14 | |
Brexit matters to our
creative industries. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:15 | |
They express our culture and values
? but give so much more. | 0:01:15 | 0:01:18 | |
Nearly 10% of our national workforce
is in creative industries. | 0:01:18 | 0:01:20 | |
They are often the young ?
and overwhelmingly in small | 0:01:20 | 0:01:24 | |
units up and down the UK. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:28 | |
Job growth outpaces every other part
of industry ? especially | 0:01:28 | 0:01:32 | |
in the Midlands and Yorkshire. | 0:01:32 | 0:01:35 | |
Their exports total over £35 billion
a year, but their added value | 0:01:35 | 0:01:41 | |
to our country ? both economically
and socially ? is incalculable. | 0:01:41 | 0:01:47 | |
And far beyond cash. | 0:01:47 | 0:01:48 | |
Our decision to leave the EU faces
the creative industries | 0:01:48 | 0:01:52 | |
with a variety of threats that
could harm their future, | 0:01:52 | 0:01:57 | |
both in financial and human terms. | 0:01:57 | 0:02:01 | |
So I am delighted to be their guest
here this afternoon | 0:02:01 | 0:02:04 | |
to talk of Brexit. | 0:02:04 | 0:02:06 | |
For years, the European
debate has been dominated | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
by the fringes of opinion ?
by strong supporters of Europe | 0:02:09 | 0:02:13 | |
or convinced opponents. | 0:02:13 | 0:02:16 | |
But as we approach Brexit,
the voice of middle opinion | 0:02:16 | 0:02:19 | |
mustn t be overlooked. | 0:02:19 | 0:02:21 | |
I am neither a Europhile
nor a Eurosceptic. | 0:02:21 | 0:02:26 | |
As Prime Minister, I said no
to federal integration, | 0:02:26 | 0:02:32 | |
no to the Euro Currency,
and no to Schengen ? | 0:02:32 | 0:02:34 | |
which introduced free movement
of people within the European Union | 0:02:34 | 0:02:37 | |
but without proper control
of external borders. | 0:02:37 | 0:02:38 | |
But I am a realist. | 0:02:38 | 0:02:42 | |
I believe that to risk
losing our trade advantages | 0:02:42 | 0:02:45 | |
with the colossal market
on our doorstep is to | 0:02:45 | 0:02:48 | |
inflict economic self-harm
on the British people. | 0:02:48 | 0:02:52 | |
Of course, the will of the people
can t be ignored, but Parliament has | 0:02:52 | 0:03:00 | |
a duty also to consider
the wellbeing of the people. | 0:03:00 | 0:03:03 | |
No-one voted for higher prices
and poorer public services, | 0:03:03 | 0:03:05 | |
but that is what they may get. | 0:03:05 | 0:03:08 | |
The emerging evidence suggests
Brexit will hurt most | 0:03:08 | 0:03:13 | |
those who have least. | 0:03:13 | 0:03:14 | |
Neither Parliament nor
Government wish to see that. | 0:03:14 | 0:03:24 | |
The will of the people -
so often summoned up | 0:03:25 | 0:03:27 | |
when sound argument | 0:03:27 | 0:03:28 | |
is absent ? was supported by only
37% of the electorate. | 0:03:28 | 0:03:31 | |
63% voted either in favour of
membership ? or did not vote at all. | 0:03:31 | 0:03:36 | |
There was a majority for Brexit,
but there was no overwhelming | 0:03:36 | 0:03:41 | |
mandate to ignore the reservations
of 16 million voters, | 0:03:41 | 0:03:46 | |
who believe it will be a harmful
change of direction for our country. | 0:03:46 | 0:03:52 | |
Brexit has been the most divisive
issue of my lifetime. | 0:03:52 | 0:03:58 | |
It has divided not only
the four nations of our UK, | 0:03:58 | 0:04:06 | |
but regions within them. | 0:04:06 | 0:04:07 | |
It has divided political parties;
political colleagues; families; | 0:04:07 | 0:04:09 | |
friends ? and the young
from the old. | 0:04:09 | 0:04:15 | |
We have to heal those divisions. | 0:04:15 | 0:04:18 | |
They have been made worse
by the character of the Brexit | 0:04:18 | 0:04:25 | |
debate, with its intolerance,
its bullying, and its name-calling. | 0:04:25 | 0:04:28 | |
I welcome rigorous debate ?
but there must be respect | 0:04:28 | 0:04:33 | |
for differing views that
are honestly held. | 0:04:33 | 0:04:39 | |
In this debate there are no
remoaners, no mutineers, | 0:04:39 | 0:04:43 | |
no enemies of the people ? just
voices setting out what they believe | 0:04:43 | 0:04:46 | |
is right for our country. | 0:04:46 | 0:04:53 | |
In recent weeks, the idea has gained
ground that Brexit won't be too bad, | 0:04:53 | 0:04:58 | |
that we will all get through it,
that we're doing better than | 0:04:58 | 0:05:01 | |
expected ? and all will be well. | 0:05:01 | 0:05:05 | |
Of course we will get through it. | 0:05:05 | 0:05:11 | |
Life as we know it
won't come to an end. | 0:05:11 | 0:05:13 | |
We are too resourceful
and talented a nation for that. | 0:05:13 | 0:05:16 | |
But our nation is owed a frank
assessment of what leaving Europe | 0:05:16 | 0:05:18 | |
may mean ? for now and the future. | 0:05:18 | 0:05:20 | |
I fear we will be weaker
and less prosperous ? | 0:05:20 | 0:05:23 | |
as a country and as individuals. | 0:05:23 | 0:05:26 | |
And ? although it grieves me
to admit it ? our divorce | 0:05:26 | 0:05:31 | |
from Europe will diminish
our international stature. | 0:05:31 | 0:05:32 | |
Indeed, it already has. | 0:05:33 | 0:05:37 | |
For decades, we British have
super-charged our influence around | 0:05:37 | 0:05:44 | |
the world by our closeness to the US
- which policy divisions | 0:05:44 | 0:06:01 | |
are broadening - and our
membership of the EU. | 0:06:01 | 0:06:06 | |
which we are abandoning. | 0:06:06 | 0:06:07 | |
As a result, we are already
becoming a lesser actor. | 0:06:07 | 0:06:10 | |
No-one ? Leaver or Remainer
? can welcome that. | 0:06:10 | 0:06:12 | |
We are all urged to be patriotic
and get behind Brexit. | 0:06:12 | 0:06:15 | |
But it is precisely because I am
patriotic that I oppose it. | 0:06:15 | 0:06:23 | |
I want my country to be
influential, not isolated. | 0:06:23 | 0:06:27 | |
Committed, not cut-off,
a leading participant, | 0:06:27 | 0:06:28 | |
not a bystander. | 0:06:28 | 0:06:29 | |
I want us to be richer, not poorer. | 0:06:29 | 0:06:31 | |
Yet every serious international
body, including the IMF, the OECD, | 0:06:31 | 0:06:34 | |
the Institute for Fiscal Studies,
the National Institute of Economic | 0:06:34 | 0:06:36 | |
and Social Research ?
as well as Nobel prize-winners ? | 0:06:36 | 0:06:39 | |
forecast we will be
poorer outside the EU. | 0:06:39 | 0:06:45 | |
Such forecasts could be wrong,
but to dismiss them out | 0:06:45 | 0:06:51 | |
of hand is reckless. | 0:06:51 | 0:06:55 | |
Our own Government has
assessed our post-Brexit position | 0:06:55 | 0:07:02 | |
upon three separate criteria -
that we stay in the Single Market, | 0:07:02 | 0:07:06 | |
or reach a trade deal
with Europe, or fail to do so. | 0:07:06 | 0:07:12 | |
Each option shows us to be worse
off - and disastrously | 0:07:12 | 0:07:15 | |
so with no trade deal at all. | 0:07:15 | 0:07:20 | |
And the poorest regions
will be hurt the most. | 0:07:20 | 0:07:26 | |
If, as negotiations proceed,
this analysis appears to be correct, | 0:07:26 | 0:07:29 | |
that cannot be brushed aside. | 0:07:30 | 0:07:36 | |
I know of no precedent for any
Government enacting a policy that | 0:07:36 | 0:07:43 | |
will make both our country
and our people poorer. | 0:07:43 | 0:07:48 | |
Once that is apparent,
the Government must change course. | 0:07:48 | 0:07:54 | |
Meanwhile, we are yet again
told all will be well. | 0:07:54 | 0:08:04 | |
Certainly, the recent fall
in the value of sterling has | 0:08:05 | 0:08:07 | |
temporarily boosted our exports. | 0:08:07 | 0:08:08 | |
The strength of the world economy
may even increase our | 0:08:08 | 0:08:10 | |
forecast growth this year. | 0:08:10 | 0:08:13 | |
But this sweet spot is artificial. | 0:08:13 | 0:08:16 | |
It won't last. | 0:08:16 | 0:08:20 | |
Prosperity isn't built
on devaluation of the currency. | 0:08:20 | 0:08:25 | |
More exports on the back of other
countries' economic growth | 0:08:25 | 0:08:27 | |
is not a secure position. | 0:08:27 | 0:08:31 | |
The UK has been at the very
top of European growth. | 0:08:31 | 0:08:38 | |
We are now the laggard
at the bottom. | 0:08:38 | 0:08:43 | |
We have become the slowest
of the world's big economies, | 0:08:43 | 0:08:49 | |
even before we surrender
the familiar advantages | 0:08:49 | 0:08:51 | |
of the Single Market. | 0:08:51 | 0:08:57 | |
Our negotiations, so far,
have not always been sure-footed. | 0:08:57 | 0:09:03 | |
Some agreements have been reached
but, in many areas, only | 0:09:03 | 0:09:07 | |
because the UK has given ground. | 0:09:07 | 0:09:12 | |
Our determination to negotiate
the divorce bill and a new trade | 0:09:12 | 0:09:17 | |
deal at the same time
was going to be "the fight | 0:09:17 | 0:09:22 | |
of the summer" - but instead became
an immediate British retreat. | 0:09:22 | 0:09:30 | |
There was to be a "points
based" immigration system. | 0:09:30 | 0:09:35 | |
There isn't, and there won't be. | 0:09:35 | 0:09:41 | |
We were to become the
"Singapore of the North". | 0:09:41 | 0:09:43 | |
No more: we have retreated
from a policy of lower | 0:09:43 | 0:09:45 | |
taxes and de-regulation. | 0:09:45 | 0:09:46 | |
No transition period
was going to be needed. | 0:09:46 | 0:09:48 | |
But we have now asked for one -
during which we will accept new EU | 0:09:48 | 0:09:52 | |
rules, ECJ jurisdiction,
and free movement of people. | 0:09:52 | 0:09:56 | |
I don't say this to be critical. | 0:09:56 | 0:09:59 | |
I do so to illustrate that
unrealistic aspirations are usually | 0:09:59 | 0:10:09 | |
followed by retreat. | 0:10:09 | 0:10:10 | |
That is a lesson for
the negotiations to come. | 0:10:10 | 0:10:20 | |
They will be the most complex
and most difficult any | 0:10:23 | 0:10:25 | |
Government has faced. | 0:10:25 | 0:10:26 | |
Our aims have to be realistic. | 0:10:26 | 0:10:28 | |
I am not sure they yet are. | 0:10:28 | 0:10:31 | |
We simply cannot move forward
with leaving the EU, | 0:10:31 | 0:10:36 | |
the Single Market, the Customs Union
and the ECJ, whilst at the same time | 0:10:36 | 0:10:44 | |
expecting a la carte,
beneficial-to-Britain, | 0:10:44 | 0:10:45 | |
bespoke entrance to
the European market. | 0:10:45 | 0:10:52 | |
It is simply not credible. | 0:10:52 | 0:10:53 | |
A willingness to
compromise is essential. | 0:10:53 | 0:11:01 | |
If either side - the UK or the EU -
is too inflexible, too unbending, | 0:11:01 | 0:11:10 | |
too wedded to what they won't do -
then the negotiations will fail. | 0:11:12 | 0:11:22 | |
The very essence of negotiation
involves both "give" and "take". | 0:11:22 | 0:11:27 | |
But there are always "red lines"
that neither side wishes to cross. | 0:11:27 | 0:11:32 | |
In successful negotiations
those "red lines" are | 0:11:32 | 0:11:34 | |
traded for concessions. | 0:11:34 | 0:11:38 | |
If our "red lines" are held to be
inviolable, the likelihood of no | 0:11:38 | 0:11:43 | |
deal - or a poor deal - increases. | 0:11:43 | 0:11:45 | |
Every time we close off
options prematurely, | 0:11:45 | 0:11:49 | |
this encourages the EU to do
the same - and that is not | 0:11:49 | 0:11:51 | |
in our British interest. | 0:11:52 | 0:11:57 | |
A good Brexit - for Britain -
will protect our trade | 0:11:57 | 0:12:04 | |
advantages, and enable us
to continue to sell our goods | 0:12:04 | 0:12:08 | |
and services without disruption,
import and export food | 0:12:08 | 0:12:11 | |
without barriers and extra cost,
staff our hospitals, | 0:12:11 | 0:12:15 | |
universities and businesses
with the skills we need - | 0:12:15 | 0:12:24 | |
where we most need them,
be part of the cutting edge | 0:12:24 | 0:12:28 | |
of European research,
in which British brains | 0:12:28 | 0:12:33 | |
and skills lead the way,
and continue with the | 0:12:33 | 0:12:37 | |
over 40 FTAs we have
with countries only as a result | 0:12:37 | 0:12:39 | |
of our membership of the EU. | 0:12:39 | 0:12:45 | |
A bad Brexit - for Britain -
will surrender these, | 0:12:45 | 0:12:48 | |
and other, advantages. | 0:12:48 | 0:12:52 | |
For the moment, our self-imposed
"red lines" have boxed | 0:12:52 | 0:12:59 | |
the Government into a corner. | 0:12:59 | 0:13:01 | |
They are so tilted to ultra Brexit
opinion, even the Cabinet cannot | 0:13:01 | 0:13:05 | |
agree them - and a majority in both
Houses of Parliament oppose them. | 0:13:05 | 0:13:11 | |
If maintained in full,
it will be impossible to reach | 0:13:11 | 0:13:14 | |
a favourable trade outcome. | 0:13:14 | 0:13:20 | |
Alarmed at the negotiations so far,
the financial sector, businesses, | 0:13:20 | 0:13:25 | |
and our academic institutions,
are pleading for common-sense policy | 0:13:25 | 0:13:32 | |
to serve the national
interest and now - | 0:13:32 | 0:13:34 | |
fearful they may not get | 0:13:34 | 0:13:38 | |
it - are making their own
preparations for the future. | 0:13:38 | 0:13:40 | |
Japanese car-makers warn
they could close operations | 0:13:40 | 0:13:46 | |
in Britain unless we maintain free
access to the EU. | 0:13:46 | 0:13:51 | |
That would be heart-breaking
for many people in Sunderland | 0:13:51 | 0:13:53 | |
or Swindon or South Wales. | 0:13:53 | 0:14:03 | |
This isn't "Project Fear" revisited,
it is "Project Know Your History". | 0:14:07 | 0:14:11 | |
Any doubters should consult
the former employees of factories, | 0:14:11 | 0:14:12 | |
now closed, in Bridgend,
Port Talbot and Newport, | 0:14:12 | 0:14:14 | |
where jobs were lost
and families suffered. | 0:14:14 | 0:14:20 | |
In 1991, employment by Japanese
firms in Wales was about 17,000 | 0:14:20 | 0:14:26 | |
people - today, it is 2,000. | 0:14:26 | 0:14:31 | |
If free access to Europe is lost -
that scale of impact, across the UK, | 0:14:31 | 0:14:35 | |
could lose 125,000 Japanese jobs. | 0:14:35 | 0:14:43 | |
Over many years, the Conservative
Party has understood | 0:14:43 | 0:14:49 | |
the concerns of business. | 0:14:49 | 0:14:52 | |
Not over Brexit, it seems. | 0:14:52 | 0:14:58 | |
Across the United Kingdom -
businesses are expressing their wish | 0:14:58 | 0:15:01 | |
to stay in the Single Market
and Customs Union. | 0:15:01 | 0:15:11 | |
But "No", say the
Government's "red lines". | 0:15:12 | 0:15:13 | |
Businesses wish to have the freedom
to employ foreign skills. | 0:15:13 | 0:15:23 | |
"No", say the Government's
"red lines". | 0:15:23 | 0:15:25 | |
Business and academia wish
to welcome foreign students | 0:15:25 | 0:15:27 | |
to our universities and -
as they rise to influence | 0:15:27 | 0:15:30 | |
in their own countries -
we then have willing | 0:15:30 | 0:15:32 | |
partners in politics
and business for decades to come. | 0:15:32 | 0:15:42 | |
"No", say the Government's
"red lines". | 0:15:42 | 0:15:43 | |
This is not only grand folly. | 0:15:43 | 0:15:45 | |
It's also bad politics. | 0:15:45 | 0:15:46 | |
The national interest must always be
above the Party interest, | 0:15:46 | 0:15:49 | |
but my Party should beware. | 0:15:49 | 0:15:50 | |
It is only fear of Mr Corbyn
and Mr McDonnell that prevents | 0:15:50 | 0:15:53 | |
a haemorrhage of business support. | 0:15:53 | 0:15:56 | |
Without the comprehensive trade deal
the Prime Minister seeks, | 0:15:56 | 0:16:03 | |
we risk economic divorce
from the EU, and the chill embrace | 0:16:03 | 0:16:09 | |
of a "hard" Brexit with WTO rules. | 0:16:09 | 0:16:15 | |
Leading Brexit supporters believe
there is nothing to fear | 0:16:15 | 0:16:20 | |
from losing our special access
to the Single Market. | 0:16:20 | 0:16:29 | |
But to me that is profoundly wrong. | 0:16:29 | 0:16:32 | |
Swapping the Single
Market for WTO rules | 0:16:32 | 0:16:35 | |
would mean our exports facing
the EU external tariff, | 0:16:35 | 0:16:41 | |
as well as hidden nontariff barriers
that could be adjusted | 0:16:41 | 0:16:45 | |
to our disadvantage at any time. | 0:16:45 | 0:16:51 | |
One Minister has speculated
we might face tariffs of 3%. | 0:16:51 | 0:16:58 | |
If only. | 0:16:58 | 0:16:59 | |
Not so. | 0:16:59 | 0:17:10 | |
It is more likely that we will face
tariffs on cars 10%, | 0:17:22 | 0:17:24 | |
food 14%, drinks 20%, | 0:17:25 | 0:17:26 | |
and dairy products 36%. | 0:17:26 | 0:17:27 | |
Even if a successful negotiation
were to halve these tariffs, | 0:17:27 | 0:17:29 | |
our exports would still be much more
expensive to sell - and this | 0:17:29 | 0:17:32 | |
would apply far beyond agriculture
and the motor industry. | 0:17:32 | 0:17:34 | |
And if, in retaliation, the UK
were to impose tariffs on imports, | 0:17:34 | 0:17:37 | |
this would result in higher prices
for the British consumer. | 0:17:37 | 0:17:40 | |
If we and the EU agreed to impose
nil tariffs - as some have | 0:17:40 | 0:17:43 | |
speculated - WTO rules mean
we would both have to offer nil | 0:17:43 | 0:17:47 | |
tariffs to all countries. | 0:17:47 | 0:17:57 | |
That simply isn't going to happen. | 0:17:57 | 0:17:58 | |
This is all very complex. | 0:17:58 | 0:17:59 | |
But it is crucial. | 0:17:59 | 0:18:02 | |
And none of it has yet been properly
explained to the British people. | 0:18:02 | 0:18:08 | |
There have been attempts to reassure
business by claiming that other | 0:18:08 | 0:18:13 | |
nations trade with the EU
on purely WTO terms. | 0:18:13 | 0:18:18 | |
That statement is simply wrong. | 0:18:19 | 0:18:24 | |
China, the US and Japan
all have side agreements | 0:18:24 | 0:18:29 | |
with Europe on standards,
customs co-operation, | 0:18:29 | 0:18:32 | |
mutual recognition and investment. | 0:18:32 | 0:18:37 | |
These economic giants did
so to protect their own trade | 0:18:37 | 0:18:42 | |
even though none of them is exposed
as we are ? still half our entire | 0:18:42 | 0:18:46 | |
exports go to Europe. | 0:18:46 | 0:18:52 | |
Ultra Brexit opinion is impatient
to be free of European | 0:18:52 | 0:19:02 | |
relationships, to become -
in their words - a "global player", | 0:19:07 | 0:19:15 | |
"sovereign", "in control". | 0:19:15 | 0:19:16 | |
I believe they are deceiving
themselves and, as a result, | 0:19:16 | 0:19:19 | |
they are misleading
the British people. | 0:19:19 | 0:19:20 | |
Before the modern world took
shape - their ambition | 0:19:20 | 0:19:23 | |
would have been credible. | 0:19:23 | 0:19:23 | |
But the world has changed,
the global market has taken root, | 0:19:23 | 0:19:26 | |
and - if we are to care
for the people of our nation - | 0:19:26 | 0:19:29 | |
philosophical fantasies must give
way to national self-interest. | 0:19:29 | 0:19:34 | |
We cannot prepare for tomorrow
by living in the world of yesterday. | 0:19:34 | 0:19:39 | |
I don't doubt the convictions
of those who long for the seductive | 0:19:39 | 0:19:43 | |
ambition of British exceptionalism. | 0:19:43 | 0:19:49 | |
But these sentiments
are out-of-date and, | 0:19:49 | 0:19:55 | |
in today's world, simply wrong. | 0:19:55 | 0:19:57 | |
It is not my purpose
to stir controversy, | 0:19:57 | 0:19:58 | |
but the truth must be spoken. | 0:19:58 | 0:20:04 | |
The ultra Brexiteers have been
mistaken - wrong - in nearly | 0:20:04 | 0:20:08 | |
all they have said or promised
to the British people. | 0:20:08 | 0:20:13 | |
The promises of more hospitals,
more schools, lower taxes, | 0:20:13 | 0:20:17 | |
more money for transport
were electioneering fantasy. | 0:20:17 | 0:20:23 | |
The £350 million a week for the NHS
was a ridiculous phantom - | 0:20:23 | 0:20:33 | |
the reality is if our economy
weakens - as is forecast - | 0:20:33 | 0:20:35 | |
there will not only be
less money for the NHS, | 0:20:35 | 0:20:38 | |
but for all our public services. | 0:20:38 | 0:20:46 | |
We were told that nobody
was threatening our place | 0:20:46 | 0:20:50 | |
in the Single Market. | 0:20:50 | 0:20:51 | |
That tune has changed. | 0:20:51 | 0:20:56 | |
We were told that a trade deal
with the EU would be easy to get. | 0:20:56 | 0:21:06 | |
We could do it in an afternoon. | 0:21:08 | 0:21:12 | |
Wrong again - it was
never going to be easy, | 0:21:12 | 0:21:15 | |
and we are still not | 0:21:15 | 0:21:16 | |
sure what outcome will be achieved. | 0:21:16 | 0:21:21 | |
We were told "Europe can whistle
for their money" and we would not | 0:21:21 | 0:21:24 | |
pay a penny in exit costs. | 0:21:24 | 0:21:26 | |
Wrong again. | 0:21:26 | 0:21:27 | |
Europe didn't even have
to purse her lips before | 0:21:27 | 0:21:29 | |
we agreed to pay £40 billion
to meet legitimate liabilities. | 0:21:29 | 0:21:31 | |
I could go on. | 0:21:31 | 0:21:36 | |
But I think the point is made. | 0:21:36 | 0:21:41 | |
But suffice to say that every one
of the Brexit promises is - to quote | 0:21:41 | 0:21:45 | |
Henry Fielding - "a very wholesome
and comfortable doctrine | 0:21:45 | 0:21:51 | |
to whichthere but one objection:
namely, that it is not true.". | 0:21:51 | 0:21:56 | |
People should pause and reflect. | 0:21:56 | 0:22:02 | |
If the Brexit leaders
were wrong in what they said | 0:22:02 | 0:22:04 | |
so enthusiastically before - | 0:22:04 | 0:22:05 | |
are they not likely to be wrong
in what they say now? | 0:22:05 | 0:22:11 | |
The Prime Minister is seeking
a "frictionless" border | 0:22:11 | 0:22:15 | |
between Northern Ireland
and the Republic. | 0:22:15 | 0:22:17 | |
She is absolutely right to do so. | 0:22:17 | 0:22:21 | |
This is a promise that must be
honoured, and I wish her well. | 0:22:21 | 0:22:27 | |
But, so far, this has not
materialised - nor, I fear, | 0:22:27 | 0:22:32 | |
will it - unless we stay in "a"
or "the" Customs Union. | 0:22:32 | 0:22:38 | |
Those of us who warned
of the risks Brexit would bring | 0:22:38 | 0:22:42 | |
to the still fragile Peace Process
were told at the time that we | 0:22:42 | 0:22:45 | |
didn't understand Irish politics. | 0:22:45 | 0:22:51 | |
But it seems we understood it
better than our critics. | 0:22:51 | 0:23:02 | |
We need a policy urgently to protect
the Good Friday Agreement - | 0:23:02 | 0:23:04 | |
and we need one urgently. | 0:23:04 | 0:23:10 | |
And it is our British
responsibility to find one - | 0:23:10 | 0:23:12 | |
not the European Union. | 0:23:12 | 0:23:20 | |
We need to provide a solution and
not simply oppose what other people | 0:23:20 | 0:23:23 | |
suggest. | 0:23:23 | 0:23:25 | |
Although the referendum was advisory
only, the result gave | 0:23:25 | 0:23:28 | |
the Government the obligation
to negotiate a Brexit. | 0:23:28 | 0:23:36 | |
But not any Brexit, not
at all costs, and certainly | 0:23:36 | 0:23:38 | |
not on any terms. | 0:23:38 | 0:23:44 | |
The true remit can only be to agree
a Brexit that honours the promises | 0:23:44 | 0:23:49 | |
made in the referendum. | 0:23:49 | 0:23:54 | |
But, so far, the promises
have not been met and, | 0:23:54 | 0:23:57 | |
probably, cannot be met. | 0:23:58 | 0:24:05 | |
Many electors now know
they were misled - many more | 0:24:05 | 0:24:08 | |
are beginning to realise it. | 0:24:08 | 0:24:10 | |
So, the electorate has every right
to reconsider their decision. | 0:24:10 | 0:24:14 | |
Meanwhile, our options
become ever narrower. | 0:24:14 | 0:24:18 | |
We have ruled out full membership. | 0:24:18 | 0:24:20 | |
Ruled out the Single Market
and Customs Union. | 0:24:20 | 0:24:24 | |
Ruled out joining the
European Economic Area. | 0:24:24 | 0:24:26 | |
Dismissed talk of joining EFTA. | 0:24:27 | 0:24:29 | |
A Norway deal won't do. | 0:24:29 | 0:24:31 | |
Nor will a Swiss deal. | 0:24:31 | 0:24:32 | |
Nor a Ukraine deal, a Turkey deal,
or a South Korea deal. | 0:24:32 | 0:24:38 | |
No to them all, say
the Government s red lines. | 0:24:38 | 0:24:42 | |
So, little is left,
except for cherry picking, | 0:24:42 | 0:24:46 | |
which the EU rejects. | 0:24:46 | 0:24:49 | |
Or a comprehensive deal ?
which will be very hard, | 0:24:49 | 0:24:52 | |
if not impossible, to get. | 0:24:52 | 0:24:54 | |
So compromise it must be
? or no deal at all. | 0:24:54 | 0:25:00 | |
It is now widely accepted
that no deal would be | 0:25:00 | 0:25:04 | |
the worst possible outcome. | 0:25:04 | 0:25:07 | |
The compromise must, therefore,
focus around our accepting | 0:25:07 | 0:25:17 | |
Single Market rules, as Norway does,
and paying for access. | 0:25:18 | 0:25:20 | |
Or an enhanced "Canada deal" -and it
would need to be enhanced | 0:25:20 | 0:25:23 | |
a very great deal to be attractive. | 0:25:23 | 0:25:25 | |
The Canada deal largely concerns
goods - whereas the bulk of UK | 0:25:25 | 0:25:28 | |
exports are services. | 0:25:28 | 0:25:30 | |
But what we achieve to protect our
interests may depend | 0:25:30 | 0:25:38 | |
on what we concede -
it is, as I say, give and take. | 0:25:38 | 0:25:45 | |
If our red lines dissolve,
our options enlarge. | 0:25:45 | 0:25:50 | |
Our minimum objective must be that
"deep, special and bespoke" trade | 0:25:50 | 0:25:56 | |
deal the Prime Minister
has talked about. | 0:25:56 | 0:26:01 | |
So, some unpalatable
decisions lie ahead - | 0:26:01 | 0:26:05 | |
with the cast-iron certainty
that the extreme and unbending | 0:26:05 | 0:26:08 | |
Brexit lobby will cry
betrayal at any compromise. | 0:26:08 | 0:26:14 | |
But it is Parliament,
not a small minority, | 0:26:14 | 0:26:17 | |
that must decide our policy. | 0:26:17 | 0:26:21 | |
I spoke earlier of the
divisiveness of Brexit | 0:26:21 | 0:26:24 | |
across our United Kingdom. | 0:26:24 | 0:26:34 | |
But in due time, the debate
will end, and when it does | 0:26:41 | 0:26:44 | |
we need the highest possible level
of public acceptance | 0:26:44 | 0:26:46 | |
for the outcome. | 0:26:46 | 0:26:47 | |
It is in no-one's interest
for the bitterness and | 0:26:47 | 0:26:50 | |
division to linger on. | 0:26:50 | 0:26:51 | |
I see only one way to achieve this. | 0:26:51 | 0:26:55 | |
It is already agreed that Parliament
must pass legislation | 0:26:55 | 0:27:00 | |
giving effect to the deal. | 0:27:00 | 0:27:03 | |
A meaningful vote has been promised. | 0:27:03 | 0:27:07 | |
This must be a decisive vote,
in which Parliament can accept | 0:27:07 | 0:27:13 | |
or reject the final outcome -
or send the negotiators back to seek | 0:27:13 | 0:27:19 | |
improvements, or order a referendum. | 0:27:19 | 0:27:24 | |
That is what Parliamentary
sovereignty means. | 0:27:24 | 0:27:33 | |
But to minimise divisions
in our country - and between | 0:27:33 | 0:27:37 | |
and within the political parties -
I believe the Government should take | 0:27:37 | 0:27:40 | |
a brave and bold decision. | 0:27:40 | 0:27:43 | |
They should invite Parliament
to accept or reject the final | 0:27:43 | 0:27:47 | |
outcome on a free vote. | 0:27:47 | 0:27:51 | |
I know the instinct of every
Government is to oppose free | 0:27:51 | 0:27:56 | |
votes, but the Government should
weigh the advantages | 0:27:56 | 0:27:59 | |
of having one very carefully. | 0:27:59 | 0:28:03 | |
It may be in their
interest to do so. | 0:28:03 | 0:28:07 | |
There are some very practical
reasons in favour of it. | 0:28:07 | 0:28:12 | |
Brexit is a unique decision. | 0:28:12 | 0:28:15 | |
It will affect the lives
of the British people | 0:28:15 | 0:28:18 | |
for generations to come. | 0:28:18 | 0:28:21 | |
If it flops, there will be
the most terrible backlash. | 0:28:21 | 0:28:27 | |
If it is whipped through Parliament,
when the public are so divided, | 0:28:27 | 0:28:34 | |
voters will know who to blame
if they end up poorer and weaker. | 0:28:34 | 0:28:39 | |
So, both democracy and prudence
suggest a free vote. | 0:28:39 | 0:28:44 | |
The deep divisions in our nation
are more likely to be healed | 0:28:44 | 0:28:49 | |
by a Brexit freely approved
by Parliament, than a Brexit forced | 0:28:49 | 0:28:55 | |
through Parliament at the behest
of a minority of convinced | 0:28:55 | 0:28:59 | |
opponents of Europe. | 0:28:59 | 0:29:05 | |
A free vote would better reflect
the reality that, for every 17 | 0:29:05 | 0:29:08 | |
voters who opted for Brexit,
16 opted to remain in the EU. | 0:29:08 | 0:29:14 | |
But, regardless of whether a free
vote is offered, Parliamentarians | 0:29:14 | 0:29:17 | |
must decide the issue on the basis
of their own conscience. | 0:29:17 | 0:29:24 | |
Upon whether, in mature judgment,
they really do believe | 0:29:24 | 0:29:29 | |
that the outcome of the negotiations
is in the best interests | 0:29:29 | 0:29:32 | |
of the people they serve. | 0:29:32 | 0:29:38 | |
By 2021, after the likely
two-year transition, | 0:29:38 | 0:29:43 | |
it will be five years
since the 2016 referendum. | 0:29:43 | 0:29:49 | |
The electorate will have changed. | 0:29:49 | 0:29:51 | |
Some voters will have left us. | 0:29:51 | 0:29:53 | |
Many new voters will
be enfranchised. | 0:29:53 | 0:29:56 | |
Others may have changed their mind. | 0:29:56 | 0:30:02 | |
No-one can truly know what the will
of the people may then be. | 0:30:02 | 0:30:05 | |
So, let Parliament decide. | 0:30:05 | 0:30:09 | |
Or put the issue back to the people. | 0:30:09 | 0:30:12 | |
And what is true for the House
of Commons must apply | 0:30:12 | 0:30:15 | |
to the House of Lords. | 0:30:15 | 0:30:18 | |
Peers must ignore any noises off,
and be guided by their intellect | 0:30:18 | 0:30:22 | |
and their conscience. | 0:30:22 | 0:30:25 | |
I have been a Conservative
all my life. | 0:30:25 | 0:30:30 | |
I don't enjoy being out of step
with many in my Party and take no | 0:30:30 | 0:30:36 | |
pleasure in speaking out
as I am today. | 0:30:36 | 0:30:43 | |
But it's as necessary to speak truth
to the people, as to power. | 0:30:43 | 0:30:49 | |
Leaving Europe is an issue
so far-reaching, so permanent, | 0:30:49 | 0:30:57 | |
so over-arching that it
will have an impact on all our | 0:30:57 | 0:31:02 | |
lives - most especially
on the young and the future. | 0:31:02 | 0:31:07 | |
With only 12 months to go,
we need answers, not aspirations. | 0:31:07 | 0:31:13 | |
This is far more than
just a party issue. | 0:31:13 | 0:31:18 | |
It's about the future
of our United Kingdom, | 0:31:18 | 0:31:21 | |
and everyone who lives in it. | 0:31:21 | 0:31:23 | |
That is what matters. | 0:31:23 | 0:31:27 | |
That is why I'm here today. | 0:31:27 | 0:31:33 | |
Thank you very much. | 0:31:33 | 0:31:43 |
Former Conservative prime minister John Major's speech in London on Brexit negotiations, from Wednesday 28 February.