14/03/2012 CF99

Hello and welcome to a live edition of CF99.

Who will be the new leader of Plaid Cymru

and to which direction will he or she take the party?

Are you keen to claim the best seats in the Grand Theatre

in Swansea tomorrow night?

The main attraction, Paul Silk and his Commission

on devolution in Wales. But what kind of a show will it be?

If you want to join in tonight on Twitter,

you are welcome to do so by using #CF99 as usual.

We are joined by the Treasurer of Plaid Cymru, Dafydd Trystan,

Professor Richard Wyn Jones from Cardiff University

and the Tory MP, Guto Bebb, who is in our studio in Westminster.

-Good evening to you all.

-Welcome.

After 12 years as leader,

Ieuan Wyn Jones will step down as party leader tomorrow.

His years in the job has been exciting

and very controversial for the party.

He lead his party to government for the first time

but also faced his party's worst election results since devolution.

Since May last year, Plaid Cymru have fewer AMs than the Tories.

A challenge therefore of for the new leader.

Tomorrow, we'll find out who has won. Here's James Williams.

When Spring comes, it brings with it hope.

After a disappointing period in the elections for Plaid Cymru,

the race to succeed Ieuan Wyn Jones is about to come to an end.

It has been an honour for me to do this job

and to play a part in the establishment and development

of the first Assembly that Wales has seen in six centuries.

No-one could have asked for more than that.

By tomorrow, one of these will lead the party after a long campaign.

Whoever will win, Plaid Cymru has a great deal of ground to gain

after giving up its status as the second biggest party in the Assembly

to the Tories last year.

We have had a disappointing year

and we have had a lot of time to think about that.

We had Eurful ap Gwilym's review and the party was united

in accepting the report's recommendations.

We have a chance now with a new leader to take this forward

and look at how to modernise as a party

and connect with people.

I think that our report which included 95 recommendations.

We have to turn the recommendations into a plan with priorities.

We have to act on those and that is a big challenge.

It will take at least two years and give them the right priorities.

I hope that the new leader will lead that work.

We have set out clear recommendations.

Two months before the next election,

it's the every day issues that worry the electors.

Four years ago, the party increased its number of councillors

even though they lost control of Gwynedd Council.

So, how important is May's election result?

Local elections are very important to any party.

It shows us what people think of our policies

and it's a chance for us to talk to the voters

and see how they respond to our ideas to move the party forward.

We have good ideas for the people of Wales.

What are the prospects for the future of Plaid Cymru?

May's election result

will give us an idea of the political climate that is to come.

Richard, the first test for any politician

is his political track record.

For Ieuan Wyn Jones, is was a slow deterioration, wasn't it?

But it was a constant deterioration during his leadership.

There is a truth in the fact that every political career

ends in failure.

It's not often that a politician leaves on a high.

If we are being unkind

and focusing on the result of the last election

But to be fair, you have to look at the journey of the party

during that period and try and discuss it.

In policy terms, there are gains in Plaid Cymru's agenda.

Last year's referendum was the pinnacle of that.

But the test is in 1992, Dafydd Wigley was leader

and the election results were really good.

The party has weakened greatly since then.

I don't deny that. You have three elements here.

Policy, entering into government, which is very important.

Thirdly, you have the votes.

If you concentrate on that, that story is correct.

I agree that he is leaving on a very disappointing notes

but if we were fair, I think the record is better.

So, Dafydd Trystan, is there a need for a change in direction?

Is the party at a crossroads here

or do we need continuation with the new leader?

We need both.

We definitely need a continuation on the political success

that the party has had over the past decade under Ieuan.

That has been clear.

What is a challenge now and what was in the report that I co-wrote

is that views of Welsh voters has moved towards the party.

But the party has not increased the number of votes.

That is the challenge for the party.

The new leader will face a challenge within a few weeks

and I would say that there will be losses.

Perhaps there will be some victories but the blow

that was against Labour four years ago, is not going to happen.

Labour will gain ground

because of Plaid Cymru.

It's clear that Labour across Britain is flourishing

compared to 2008.

So, that gives a challenging time for us in the local elections.

What's clear is that the battles are won and lost on local ground.

There are strong campaigns across Cardiff and beyond

where the party are hoping to win seats.

Guto Bebb, perhaps the irony of Plaid Cymru

is that they have made the other parties of Wales more Welsh.

As a result they have lost their USP?

I don't think that is the success of the party

but more a success of devolution.

Some could argue that Plaid Cymru was responsible or devolution.

I don't think that's true.

I don't think you can attribute the Welshness to Plaid Cymru,

I think it's more to do with the other parties acknowledging

the importance of politics in Wales now.

Personally, I believe that the recent period for Plaid Cymru

has been an interesting one but not a success.

People have been comparing the success of Plaid Cymru

under Ieuan Wyn Jones and the SNP under Alex Salmond.

Richard Wyn Jones,

is there a real choice between the three candidates or are they similar?

It can be divided into two groups.

Two in one group and one in the other.

If Plaid Cymru chooses Dafydd Elis-Thomas, they will have problems

within the party in regards to local elections.

If you look at the party in terms of elective members,

party staff and ordinary members, he hasn't got much support

among elective members.

He hasn't got much support from those working for the party.

They have big problems.

He isn't here tonight but he said that he had a good campaign.

I'm not saying that.

I think that he wants to go into government with Labour.

That's the USP. The two others are more similar.

The two women are going to move to the centre.

Everyone who's running a campaign to become a party leader

is playing to the prejudices of the members.

The two will move towards independence.

They talk a lot about the economy.

Guto, does one of the three scare you?

Not at all but I have great respect for all three.

Elin Jones is a good minister.

Leanne Wood is a very charismatic character.

I have a lot of time for Leanne.

She used to share a platform with me against the euro.

The old fox, Dafydd Elis-Thomas

is someone who I have great respect for.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas has gained the support

of many Plaid Cymru council leader. He has support within the party too.

I think that electing Dafydd Elis-Thomas

would lead to problems within the party.

I think that Leanne would give people a real chance

for those who argue that the Welsh Tory Party

has a chance to take advantage on the party's decision

to turn to the left.

She is a good minister, she is not a good communicator.

I think that she would find it difficult to be a party leader.

I disagree with those comments.

Dafydd has set out his intellectual strengths during his campaign.

No-one denies how clear and strong has been

on a series of subjects even some that was unpopular with members.

Leanne is inspirational and is going to be a crucial part of the team.

Elin's character and perseverance moving within the party

is a great combination.

Can I ask a question to you Dafydd?

No-one can predict who will win tomorrow

but one people has lost during this campaign.

That person is Adam Price.

A number of people has reacted to the second intervention

by saying, who is this man preaching from Harvard?

It hasn't been the best campaign for Adam.

I think that it's a good sign about Leanne's leadership or Elin

that neither dabbled with that kind of politics.

Dafydd hasn't either.

It as if he has come from afar

and doesn't reflect what was happening among members.

Richard, you have been very critical

of this stepping forward by the party.

You talk of a need for a practical ideal.

What should come first?

The talk about the constitution

and the long-term strategy or the economy and jobs?

I think that the constitutional agenda is going ahead.

The party could refer to that

and could push it to different directions.

They don't have to do a lot there.

The challenge for Plaid Cymru

is to find a way of challenging Carwyn Jones.

It appears to me that the Welsh Government gets its own way.

The opposition isn't very effective.

The whole negative statistics are coming out daily.

Plaid Cymru isn't relevant to that discussion.

Thank you very much.

If you fancy a night out in Swansea tomorrow night,

free tickets are available for a special show at the Grand Theatre.

Remember to wear your anorak because the cast are members

of the commission on devolution, Paul Silk and his crew.

The plot is deep, discussing the financial accountability

for Wales, financial loans and tax-raising powers.

You should be applauding there!

Elliw Gwawr has been asking what's likely to come

out of the commission.

The work of shedding some light on the financial future of Wales

has begun since October.

The work has been done behind closed doors.

The Silk Commission wants to attract a wider audience.

It's here at the Grand Theatre in Swansea

that the Silk Commission will hold its first public meeting.

They have already collected written evidence from politicians,

academics and Welsh organisations.

But they now want to see what the public

think about the financial future of Wales.

But how easy will that be?

There are enough seats still left for this event.

The meeting won't be held in the theatre itself

but with only 12 registered to attend so far,

are they doing enough to attract the public?

It's the first in a series of public meetings.

We have made it clear that people don't have to register

can come on the night.

I think that some will.

The most important thing is that those who attend

contribute to the discussion and ask questions and put their view across.

After this first meeting, the show will tour Wales with events

being organised from official sessions to coffee mornings.

But do they need to be more creative to attract the public?

We were criticised for the night in Port Talbot

but I think it was a very successful night.

We learnt how not to do things and how to do other things

but in terms of getting close to people,

and talking to them in their own communities, it was very beneficial.

We found that people were willing to come to us on their own terms.

We'll discover what people really think

when the commission reports back on its initial findings in October.

Guto Bebb, what's the opinion in Westminster and among MPs in general?

Do they look at the Senedd in Cardiff as a place that has power,

with regard to raising money, but no accountability?

I think there is some truth in that.

Several Labour and Conservative members attended a meeting

with Paul Silk and his team last week.

I think most of the Welsh members were there, to be honest.

There's a feeling, and I've said this myself in the chamber

when we've had a discussion on these plans to look at the constitution,

that there is a question about the Assembly's financial accountability.

If the Assembly is responsible for spending £15 billion,

maybe it should be responsible for raising some of that money in Wales.

I think that's healthy

because it shows people how important the Assembly is.

At the moment, we're in the middle of county council campaigns

and in my constituency, we're campaigning on the fact

that the coalition under the leadership of Plaid Cymru

has increased council tax.

If councillors and councils are financially accountable,

I think it's impossible to argue the Assembly shouldn't be as well.

Earlier, Richard mentioned the GDP figures we saw yesterday.

Some parts of Wales are poorer than Romania.

The difference between wealth in Wales and wealth in London

compared to comparisons within other countries is frightening.

Giving this place any significant tax raising powers

would be very difficult, considering the state of Wales' economy.

I would argue that it's vital that this place

does have tax raising powers because it would ensure

that the Welsh Government is accountable

for Wales' economic performance.

If we're serious about developing the Welsh economy,

we have to have the power to vary corporation tax, for example,

here in Wales.

I would hope that every party would support that.

If we had that accountability, voters would know

that if they vote for a useless government,

like we have at the moment, it'll affect their public services.

But let's be honest, those taxes would have to go through the roof.

No, because in any sensible devolved system,

there are transfers from different parts.

That's what will happen, that's what happens now.

That's what happens in any country

where there is a devolved system of budgeting.

That's what's on the table in Scotland, with Calman,

and that's what I would expect to happen in Wales.

But Richard, Carwyn Jones is suggesting taxes

which aren't unimportant, but they're not main stream taxes.

Paul Silk could turn around and say,

"This is not the time to conduct a constitutional financial experiment.

"Sort out the economy first."

I think the unionist parties

have created a difficult situation for themselves.

With regard to Scotland, they've said that the Scottish Parliament

has to have these powers and use them in order to be accountable.

It's very difficult to say then,

"The Welsh Assembly doesn't have to be accountable."

I think that argument is lost before it begins.

The other interesting thing is the public opinion figures.

More figures have been released today by the Silk Commission

which confirm what we saw in the BBC's St David's Day poll.

Surprisingly, two thirds of people in Wales

think that the Assembly should have at least some tax raising powers.

Carwyn Jones, I think, is quite suspicious of that,

but it's interesting that the opinion of Welsh people

is further down the road than the Welsh Government's opinion on this.

Guto, do you see a possible scenario where David Cameron

or Nick Clegg could offer these tax raising powers

and Carwyn Jones could reject them or be nervous about accepting them?

I'm surprised to hear Richard say this is some kind of trap

that's been created by the unionist parties themselves.

I think most of the Conservative members who spoke in the debate

on Silk in the House of Commons said they were in favour of this change.

I think most Conservative AMs would agree with this change.

There are concerns within the Labour Party

but Labour isn't the only unionist party we've mentioned.

I think there's a possibility that the debate in Wales

is being influenced by what's happening in Scotland.

I think it's crucial that parties who believe

that the union between the British countries is important

but who also believe that we need powers in Cardiff

that are accountable,

have to move on and create a mature debate in Wales.

Otherwise, what will happen

is what happened in Scotland to Ruth Davidson.

The Prime Minister turned up in Edinburgh

and completely undermined Ruth Davidson's leadership overnight.

I think it's important we get to grips with the agenda ourselves

in Wales and the Silk Commission is a part of that process,

but I would argue it's a starting point.

A very interesting admission with regard to the Prime Minister there.

Guto is usually very honest, but I disagree.

I would be very surprised

if most of the Conservative members across the country...

-I said elected members.

-That's what I'm saying.

I think there's a big gap here between the elected members

and the members across the country.

The Welsh Conservative Party has managed to ensure

that the membership has followed the elected members

in every change that's taken place.

In areas like Aberconwy, there was a very strong vote

in favour of giving the Assembly further powers

and that was because people like me stated that it was a change

that should be welcomed.

The big question for all the unionist parties will be,

when the Silk report is published, and looking sensibly at this,

if the Assembly is given tax raising powers,

would they, their members, the Prime Minister and everyone else

support a further significant development of devolution in Wales?

That's the challenge for the unionist parties in Wales.

Plaid Cymru is clear that we need those responsibilities.

But what about the point

that whatever happens in other places will influence this?

It's like the measure in Scotland as a result of Calman.

We've almost forgotten its existence.

It'll have an effect

and what's interesting is that for the first time,

there's a public discussion across Britain about the constitution.

Usually, it's about devolution in Wales and Scotland.

What about Carwyn Jones' idea?

That there should be a constitutional commission

or a constitutional convention

to look at the constitution across Britain in order to work out

a system that's consistent across the country,

instead of one investigation in Wales, another one in Scotland

and something different happening with the West Lothian question.

Does it all need to be combined?

I think Carwyn is right about that.

I think we have a significant problem

because we have a big discussion about what's happening in Scotland

and the rest of Britain and what's happening in Wales is being ignored.

The feelings of people in England are also being ignored

and they're becoming increasingly dissatisfied

with the devolution settlement we have.

I think we need to discuss how we're going to achieve

a constitutional settlement that puts the wishes of Welsh people

on the map but that also ensures that we can operate within Britain.

Are you surprised sometimes about the speed of the devolution process?

We're talking about another possible referendum, raising taxes here...

And also, Carwyn Jones as the leader of a party

that's been very conservative about the constitution traditionally,

but now it's saying these radical things and people just accept it.

It is an amazing period.

Guto talked about this change of opinion in England

and I've done some research on that recently and there are big changes.

The problem with having some kind of commission across Britain

is that it would be like locking the door after the horse has bolted!

We've acknowledged the sovereignty of the people of Scotland and Wales.

They're the people who get to decide.

But isn't that a worthy ending to Ieuan Wyn Jones' leadership?

We have to leave it there. Thank you all very much. Our time is up.

That's it for tonight.

Thank you to our guests and don't forget to join us next Wednesday

when we'll be concentrating on George Osborne's red box.

-Until then, good night.

-Good night.