12/12/2012 CF99

Hello, and welcome to the programme.

We are concentrating on one issue tonight,

the results of the 2011 Census.

Is the Welsh language in crisis?

With a language struggling, we will discuss the next steps.

And what does the modern Wales look like?

We'll take a look at national identity and our religion.

We are joined tonight by the playwright, Gareth Miles,

solicitor Emyr Lewis who sits on the new body, Dyfodol yr Iaith,

and Dr Elin Royles from the Welsh Institute of politics in Aberystwyth.

She joins us from our studio in Aberystwyth.

Welcome to you all.

It is the Christmas season

but Welsh language campaigners don't feel like celebrating.

According to the latest census, the number who can speak Welsh

has dropped during the last decade,

the largest drop being in the heartlands.

If you listened carefully in Sunday school

you will remember that Mary and Joseph were travelling to Bethlehem

for a census.

That is where Arwyn Jones has been to discuss the latest one.

It is a scene that will be repeated hundreds of times

across Wales over the next few days.

The retelling of the birth of Jesus.

Mary and Joseph travelling to Bethlehem for a census,

or this version by these children at Ysgol Ffair Fach.

These children attend a Welsh school in west Wales,

but their nativity play is bilingual

because 90% of the parents only speak English.

So to discuss the 2011 census,

where better to go than our Bethlehem in Wales?

But this census is not hopeful for our Welsh communities.

Over the last decades, the number speaking the language

has dropped from almost nearly 21% in 2001

to 19% last year.

But in places like Bethlehem in Carmarthenshire,

the drop has been significant.

Over 50% could speak Welsh in 2001, that figure is now less than 44%.

That means that for the first time,

the Welsh language is a minority language in its heartlands.

The cold weather gives a Christmas feel to the village of Bethlehem

but there is not much festive spirit for campaigners

when you look at the census in detail.

Among the people who consider themselves fluent in Welsh,

that is those who can read, write and speak in Welsh,

the drop was even more significant.

Back in 2001, more than 15% said they could do all three.

Now that has dropped to just over 14.5%.

Almost 460,000 people were fluent 10 years ago.

But now it is 431,000.

A drop of 6%.

So, Welsh is losing its fluency as well as speakers in general.

These figures should be a challenge for us

all to work for a more sustainable future for the Welsh language.

I feel it shows that the Welsh Government

and some local governments

have failed to accomplish that over the last decade.

Back in Bethlehem and at this stable,

which is a holiday cottage run by a young couple,

they talk about the opportunities for young people in rural Wales.

You do have the opportunity to speak Welsh in your community,

in the shop and in the pub.

You can do that these days.

You couldn't do that 20 years ago.

But you can use Welsh not just in the communities.

You can also speak Welsh online.

Things like Facebook are in Welsh.

You can use Twitter in Welsh.

These big companies have invested in the Welsh language

so I think it does have a bright future.

But for those who have lived here for decades,

the deterioration in the Welsh language is reflecting

the migration in and out of the area.

Not many Welsh speakers return to the area.

People move out to live in Llandeilo or Llangadog

but they don't come back.

I can tell you that only around three or four...

..new people have come back into the area.

As the wise men and the angels prepare for the big night,

the question is what hope is there for the future of the next generation?

The evidence shows that children and young people

who can speak Welsh do not speak it outside school or with friends.

That could be one problem.

But there are a number of issues.

I think we have a good basis here in Wales with regard to status

and different projects which promote the language.

In midwinter, maybe the only comfort for the people in Bethlehem

is the certainty that spring will come once again.

That the sun will shine again.

But looking at the future of the Welsh language,

it is difficult to give the same certainty.

That was Arwyn Jones.

Emyr Lewis, to what extent does the success of the Welsh education,

not just in the east but also in the west,

has hidden the truth about what's happened to the Welsh language

as a community language and one that's written and spoken fluently?

I don't know whether education has hidden that.

The big story is what has happened in the areas

where the Welsh language was always a language spoken by the majority.

That is the main story.

If you look at how it's mapped over the years

you can almost say this was inevitable.

If you look at it like water pools that dry out.

Over time, the pools have been getting smaller and smaller

on the map.

There is a dynamic...

..an economic dynamic which has meant that people

have migrated out of these areas,

and there's been inmigration.

These things mean that the language has been weakened.

Have the language campaigners, and perhaps the government,

as well as these language bodies,

ignored this problem because it is such a difficult problem

to talk about inmigration and so on, and have concentrated on status.

But in reality, that was never the priority?

It is an odd thing to say but you can say that the big battles

have been relatively easy

because they have been to do with what a government can accomplish.

Governments can issue legislation and spend money on education

and on spend money on a television channel.

It's easy to see an end to the campaign.

I would not place those things to one side for a minute,

they have been and continue to be crucial

for the Welsh language as a modern language.

But the other things mean,

what is happening socially and within the psychology

of individuals and families

is something much more difficult to deal with

from the point of view of the Government.

But one thing is for certain, the economy is key.

We have to ensure there is work within these communities.

Gareth Miles, as a co-founder of the Welsh Language Society,

the organisation has been talking about crisis.

But there was a larger drop in the 1960s.

Is there a danger we're over-exaggerating these results?

I don't think so.

AS you said, I was co-founder of the Welsh Language Society.

By 1972 and 1974 we had got further than Saunders Lewis expected to,

such as concessions for the language.

But I realised at that time and I was convinced

that it was an economic and political question.

I dealt with politics then and different parties.

But I think a lot of my contemporaries accepted

the concessions and did the best with them.

But they ignored the economic and political questions.

In the end, the only thing that will save the Welsh language

is a government with the authority and will

to direct industries to the necessary areas

and to legislate in favour of council houses and rented houses.

We need a political compulsion

and you need a government that is willing to do that.

At the moment I don't see that.

We have four nationalist-light parties in this place.

But we will not have a socialist government,

so what should your successor concentrate on?

Politics. Politics.

He will have to influence the political parties.

We need more than that.

We need cooperation.

We are in a capitalist crisis.

A capitalist crisis also means hope to cooperate with people

in other countries.

Elin Royles, to what extent does this place have the ability

to make the changes that we have just talked about?

Housing and so forth has been devolved to here

but powers are restricted and the money is short.

It is a very difficult climate to be dealing with this kind of problem.

We have seen this drop in the number of Welsh speakers

at the same time when we have had devolution,

and there has been an effort to have a language plan

to try and revive the language and so forth.

This reflects the challenge facing them.

It is very difficult to deal with some of the problems

we have talked about, economic changes and so on.

We have talked about population movements,

changes within families, it is extremely challenging.

The Government has a role to try to deal with some of these factors.

The big question is whether there is an element

of political will behind this.

With the number of Welsh speakers dropping,

how much political will is there to deal with issues to do with

the Welsh language?

Failing targets dealing with Welsh isn't an election priority.

Let's look at that, because there was a target in Iaith Pawb

and the figure was meant to increase by 5% in this census.

It does not seem that the Government is paying any political price

for that failure?

Exactly.

It is not like missing or reaching targets

on people being treated for cancer or hospital closures.

It is not a critical matter to that extent,

it's not life or death.

So it is a more difficult challenge to campaign for the language

and ensure the political parties take this as part of their intent.

We have not been able to have the political climate in Wales

to discuss inmigration sensibly in Wales.

Sorry to interrupt, but is that issue going to be discussed now?

We've had a press release which says that the Welsh Government is adamant

that inmigration is part of the problem.

Will they have to deal with that now?

This is the first question, are you going to spend political capital,

as Elin said, on making sure that Welsh remains a strong community

and majority language in Wales?

If yes, you need to look at what you can do with ensuring that.

It is to do with assimilating inmigrants and things like that

and providing the structure to ensure these things happen.

But some say the language has to be central

to any planning law, for example,

and the economic revival. How do they do that?

There are many ways to do that but one obvious way

is to make sure that there is work within those Welsh areas.

Only for people who speak Welsh?

That there is work there to start with, let's start there,

so fewer people leave those areas.

The second thing is that there is a demand,

within the Welsh the communities, the demand to use the Welsh language

has to be essential.

For example, we have seen the Language Commissioner,

and well done her,

and Gwenda Thomas, the deputy health minister,

promoting the question Welsh language skills are needed

within the health service.

That is not true about everywhere in Wales.

Are we moving to legal ground there?

I'd hope not.

Thomas Jefferson or someone like that said,

leave legislating alone, lawyers have plenty of work to do

without having to legislate.

This doesn't have to be a matter of legislation.

What we need is political will.

Politicians deciding that they're going to deal with these questions.

But this is the political problem,

people remember what happened to Simon Glyn, for example.

People will be frightened of going into this area

because of the dependency on the goodwill of non-Welsh speakers

and the danger that things that are said are said in the wrong way,

things can be coloured the wrong way and so on.

It could ruin the consensus that everyone says has developed

in favour of the language.

We've heard people say, we should have people speaking Welsh.

Why should they speak Welsh?

We speak Welsh but that's our way.

As the Welsh middle class, we have the impulse to do that.

In South Wales, a lot of people want independence.

But I don't think the language should be treated

as something separate to the economic and social policies.

We need to continue the Welsh language and culture,

but we need a society based on co-operation.

So that issues like jobs and housing and the health service and roads

and transport, that the Welsh language is part of that programme.

It is not something extra.

The Welsh language is one of society's necessities.

Elin, is there potential for a political split

because they are trying to deal with an issue

that has caused serious problems in the past?

It's a challenge for the politicians to make sure that doesn't happen.

It is a challenge to make sure this political tension

around the Welsh language survives.

It also depends on the media and other organisations

to create that kind of consensus so that we can deal

with some of these problems.

It has to be implemented on different levels within government

and within different societies in Wales.

There are two main political parties in Wales.

Most of us support Plaid Cymru and the Labour Party,

but there is an anti-Welsh element within Labour.

Sometimes Plaid Cymru stay away

because they don't want to lose votes of the non-Welsh speakers.

But if they had put the Welsh language into a package,

that would have been better.

The Welsh Language Society is talking about a revolution,

but we haven't had that, but I think that is the only answer.

Or in ten years' time, this programme won't exist.

Thank you very much. The census has also shown significant changes

to other aspects of our lives in Wales.

We have been to the National Museum to see how modern Wales

is different to the wails of the past.

The census is an historic document which gives us

a future of Wales every decade almost 200 years.

It's a picture of how we live our lives today

compared to 10 years ago.

Few of us are married, more of us are gaining degrees

and more of us rent houses and more of us drive cars.

But the census goes further and gives us a look at how we think.

Religion was one of the subjects.

Almost a third of the population in Wales said

they didn't have a religion, that is higher than any region in England.

There has also been a reduction since 2001 of 16%

in the number who consider themselves to be Christians.

The National Museum of Wales has documented Welsh history

over thousands of years, but for the first time the census is asking

one central question to the population,

do they consider themselves to be Welsh?

Two-thirds of the people who live here said they were Welsh,

but 10% of them said they would also consider themselves British.

According to the census,

the heartlands of the Welsh identity is the old Welsh industrial valleys.

Rhondda Cynon Taf had the highest percentage

who said they considered themselves only Welsh.

Merthyr Tydfil was the place which felt less English.

One thing constant about the results is that things changed

from one census to the next.

In another 10 years, there will be a new picture of Wales again.

There was no tick box for the Welsh last time, but there is this time.

Two-thirds feel they are Welsh. Does that surprise you?

No, I think it confirms the research that has been going on for years.

We have to ask what is British nationalism?

What is the meaning of that? We have to ask ourselves what that means.

Does devolution account for that? That was the smallest percentage.

-Those people who felt Welsh and British.

-I don't know.

I think strengthening the feeling of being Welsh,

because there are democratic establishments,

will push being British to the side, but I don't know.

Gwynfor Evans wrote a book on the end of Britishness.

-Are we seeing the end of Britishness?

-I hope so.

It depends when that question was asked.

You get a marriage and babies and look forward to life.

Then you have the death of the Queen.

This comes every now and again. Things deteriorate.

In the area where I live, Welshness is strong.

That is why I say we have to put Welshness

as part of a left-wing socialist political programme.

I think then that we would solve the problem.

Welshness is powerful when linked to Welsh language education.

It is interesting that the people who moved to Wales

from England on the whole said they were English.

They didn't try to hide behind some kind of bail of Britishness.

It is what we are seeing in England as well with people feeling English,

and this feeling of Britishness is something for the minority.

That is interesting.

The figure of in migration to Wales complicates the picture.

With the figures of the number of Welsh speakers dropping

but this strong feeling of being Welsh,

this idea of the language as being a sign of identity,

that is weakening.

Maybe that this is a sign of devolution and Welsh institution

plays a very important role in this.

Let us move from the language to heaven.

What about the drop in the number of Christians in Wales?

There is a drop of 300,000, that is bigger than anywhere in England.

The chapels and the pubs are closing.

Religion makes people do good things but also bad things.

It is a factor in the deterioration of the Welsh language

because chapels sustained the language,

and it was a strength at the time, but it is a weakness now.

It gave social status, but that has gone.

Do you see this marriage between the language and religion?

Of course, but religion claims it only has the whole truth.

At least Welshness can be more varied than that.

Thank you very much, that's it for another year.

We will be back on the 9th of January.

-Until then, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

-Good night.