15/11/2011 Daily Politics


15/11/2011

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Good afternoon, welcome. At last, some good news on the economy. Or

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is it? Inflation fell last month, but not so much that you will have

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noticed. Supermarket discounts helped push prices down, but prices

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are still rising more than wages. We will talk to a Treasury minister

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as well as the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls.

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Will the Government halt the planned increases in fuel duty? We

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will talk to the Conservative MP leading the campaign.

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The man at the centre of the row with Theresa May over border

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control speaks out. Brodie Clark has been facing questions from MPs

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added further revelations about the state of our borders.

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I am an admiral. And, what is it like being in the

:01:18.:01:28.
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Navy? The former First Sea Lord All of that and more coming up.

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Public service broadcasting at its finest! With this, former Labour

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security minister Alan West. He is a lord and an admiral. Anyway,

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first, the latest figures for inflation, the CPI, the

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government's preferred measure for October, 5%, down from 5.2% in

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September. As promised, the shadow chancellor is with us. Has

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inflation now peaked? I do not know, possibly. There was a big blip

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because of the rise in VAT in January, which hit the budgets of

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households and pushed prices up. But it seems to be stubbornly high.

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To come down from 5.2% to 5%, not much of a change. You have talked

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about the misery index, the combination of inflation and

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unemployment now rising, this is a toxic combination. As how big a

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stimulus would you give the economy at the moment? Put a figure on it.

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We need a stimulus. It is hard when you or not in government and you do

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not know the scale of the projects you can get in quickly to put a

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figure on. I will give you one figure, a temporary cut in VAT, 12

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billion. How much more? We would also do a temporary cut in VAT for

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repairs and maintenance, which would help small businesses, which

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would give you half a billion. The bank bonus tax, �2 billion, we

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could raise that. That �2 billion is more likely to be spent if it is

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going to the pockets of people building houses and young people.

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Then, the small business tax cut, that would pay for itself. Roughly

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what, 15 billion? The Tories like to say it is over 20 billion.

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20 billion closer than 15? other number is how much public

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investment you could bring forward. You would need billions of pounds.

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The more you can do which is reasonable and quick, the better.

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You want a stimulus that will have a real effect. Let's say between 15

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and 20 billion. The equivalent of a 1% cut in interest rates in a

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normal economy. We are agreed he would add to borrowing this year?

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George Osborne will Barrow �46 billion more than he planned.

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is over several years. Your response to a debt crisis is more

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debt? It is a grave crisis. It is not a debt crisis? The fundamental

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problem, if the growth is flat lining and unemployment is rising,

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that will mean fewer people paying tax, more people on benefit, it

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will be hard to get the deficit down. You have got to have a

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reduction plan, it has got to work, and if you say, it is a debt crisis,

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and therefore, the faster we cut, the better, you make the exact

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mistake that David Cameron and George Osborne are making. We are

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already borrowing �122 billion this year. Why would borrowing 130

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billion in a 1.5 trillion pound economy make more than the most

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marginal of differences? David Cameron likes to say, you cannot

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borrow yourself out of a debt crisis. The Government is borrowing

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�120 billion this year. borrowing a bit more? Why would it

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make a difference? What is a sensible pace to get the deficit

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down? It might order that has been, if you try to get it down too

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quickly, it backfires, it blows up in-your-face. You end up borrowing

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more than you planned. Right now, with the world in such a dangerous

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place, and with an economy have installed, the right thing to do is

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to get some stimulus to get the economy moving. If that is right,

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it follows that what the Prime Minister is to link in Italy is

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wrong, because he has got an even smaller deficit and we have, but he

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is still cutting it. He is wrong but by what you just said. There is

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a fundamental difference between Italy and Britain. They are in the

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euro, and we are not. What has that got to do with borrowing? If you

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are a single country with your own currency, and you have a central

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bank which is effective, you can serve as your debts. Will the

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markets believe that you will get your deficit down in a balanced way

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without inflation? That depends on growth. He has got no growth. But

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he is still cutting the deficit. Take France, which has got the same

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national debt as we have. They have got a smaller deficit. It follows

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that Nicolas Sarkozy is wrong, as by what you say. Personally, I

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think the right-of-centre governments in the eurozone

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believing that faster deficit reduction will lead to more

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credibility on their deficit, they are making it a big mistake. Let's

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take a left-of-centre government, the outgoing its government in

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Spain. They have a national debt roughly equivalent to ours, but it

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has got a smaller deficit, but it cut its deficit. Under your view of

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the world, that was wrong as well? They have a non-functioning central

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bank. They have no lender of last resort. Contagion is spreading

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across the eurozone. In those circumstances, they are thinking

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that they have got to show a signal. I think it is the wrong signal.

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it they are all wrong? And you all right? The IMF have said countries

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not in crisis in the eurozone, who have room for manoeuvre, like

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Germany and Britain and America, should slow their pace to get

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growth and jobs moving. I agree with them. I am so thankful that we

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are not in the contagion crisis of Spain and Italy. The IMF has backed

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the Spanish, Italian and French cuts. They have not backed you.

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am worried about you resent believing that austerity is going

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to deliver them credibility -- I am worried about the eurozone

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believing. This could be every PC for turmoil and disaster. -- this

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could be a recipe. Your plan would increase borrowing and our deficit.

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You said that. I said there should be a stimulus. Otherwise, it is not

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a stimulus. I pointed out to you that George Osborne's plans will

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lead to higher borrowing that he planned, because he will have to

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downgrade his growth forecast and upgrade his borrowing forecast.

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This morning, Italian bond yields went above 7% again. They do not

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have confidence in the deficit reduction plan. I do not agree.

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German/French bond spread, the French are having to pay higher,

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because they do not think Nicolas Sarkozy is cutting the deficit by

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enough. How could you increase our borrowing and deficit and not

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increase and a bond yields? It is impossible. You know enough about

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economics, and the lessons of the 20s and 30s, what you just said,

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economically, is nonsense. In August, when the American debt was

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downgraded by the credit agencies, their interest rates went down. The

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succession of short rates and people are thinking that they will

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stay low, because our economy has stagnated... Of you think we could

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borrow more and bond yields would not rise? I think they will come

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under pressure in the end because of a lack of growth in the economy.

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Do I think that the markets are saying about Britain, the problem

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is they are not cutting fast enough? They are saying the

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opposite. You know enough about economics to know that it is much

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more complicated than that. will have to come back to answer a

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question. I want to take another mug! Is this not a new one?!

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One area where consumers are feeling the pinch is the cost of

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filling up their car. MPs will debate a motion on fuel prices and

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taxes this afternoon. After 100,000 people signed an e-petition column

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for the issue to be discussed in the House of Commons. Any vote will

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not be binding, but the strength of feeling, especially amongst

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Conservative backbenches, might lead David Cameron and George

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Osborne to act. Filling up has become a costly business, but high

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prices are also causing a headache for the Chancellor. At the budget,

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he cut duty by one pence per litre. He scrapped the duty escalator,

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which meant above-inflation increases every year. But another

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increase of 3p is scheduled for January. Then, there will be a

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further rise in line with inflation in August, which some people have

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claimed could be up to five pence. The VAT increase last January

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pushed costs up as well. The persistently high global prices

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have meant more pain for motorists. David Cameron and George Osborne

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know any further rises will be unpopular. But the Office for

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budget responsibility estimates that scrapping the increase in

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January would cost the Treasury �1.5 billion. Their determination

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to cut the budget deficit means they have got little room for

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manoeuvre. This MP has secured the debate this afternoon. What exactly

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did you want the government to do? Not implement the plant due to

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raise his next January. I say, cut taxes for millions of ordinary

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hard-working Britons, rather than for millionaires. Secondly, we need

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a long-term commission to be set up to look at the price of petrol,

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because it is unsustainable, it has been going up all the time, the oil

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companies should bear responsibility. The international

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oil prize has gone down by 20% since April. Also, we need to

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introduce a fair feel stabiliser, to ensure that, when prices -- when

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revenues are high, prices go down. How big an issue is this? It is a

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much bigger issue than some politicians really understand it.

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They have misjudged it in the past, and they are doing so again. This

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will have a huge impact. I think it will resonate. Politically, it is

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dynamite. I do not think politicians have grasped it

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properly. They do in the States, they understand that fuel prices

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are important. We have just heard that the government is not going to

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impose a three-line whip on this, they are worried about a rebellion.

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But can the country afforded? They have already taken action, they

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have already cut the duty by 1p earlier this year. They have also

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scrapped the escalator that was Porton in 2009. Vince Cable says

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there are ideas, and the government is not in a position to do things.

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Can the country not afford it? Figures from the AA showed that the

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Treasury has been getting less revenue from petrol and diesel tax

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this year compared to 2008, so the government have been getting less

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revenue, because people cannot afford to drive their cars. Looking

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at the average person in my constituency, they spent 17 --

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�1,700 a year. That is disputed by the ONS, they said it was 600 and

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so it is �7. If you take the average earnings, the RAC estimate

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they are paying a 10th of their income on the price of petrol or

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diesel. Some estimates put it higher. The government to find fuel

:14:59.:15:09.
:15:09.:15:09.

poverty as somebody spending a 10th Can you give them any comfort?

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are listening to the arguments. This is a good opportunity for

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parliamentarians to make the case, parliamentarians to make the case,

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all of us as MPs are talking to our constituents. The challenge we face

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is that if we don't go ahead with the January increased, it will cost

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�1.5 billion in revenue forgone. That is fairly substantial. But we

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have already demonstrated we are sensitive to these motorists, that

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is why the budget George Osborne announced... Is that a yes or no to

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my question? We will listen to the arguments. You said that. We will

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not make policy announcements today. This is a day for listening to the

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arguments. Have you listened to Vince Cable? He says our budget

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position is not in a position where we can make a lot of freebies

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available. Do you think not incurious sing -- increasing fuel...

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We don't have an option or foregoing lots of tax increases or

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cutting spending or taking risks. Is it a freebie? Not raising our

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tax is a freebie? This is something that has been scheduled, something

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we postponed from last spring. At a cost of �1.9 billion. So it would

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be a freebie? Whether we call it a freebie or not, it is an impact on

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the public finances. Let me ask you this. Same question I asked Ed

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Balls. In the Treasury's few has inflation peaked? What we do in the

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Treasury is used the forecast made by the Bank of England and the

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Office of budget responsibility and the OBR will update their forecasts

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in the Autumn Statement. The view of the Bank of England... We know

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that. The Treasury hasn't got its own view on the course of

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inflation? The Treasury uses the inflation projections made by the

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Bank of England and the Office of budget responsibility. It doesn't

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have its own view? It doesn't do its own separate estimate, is that

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correct? Be it is correct because it uses the estimates used by the

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Bank of England. When you have got the economy flatlining, you have

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got inflation still above 5%, unemployment very high and rising,

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living standards being squeezed more than at any time since the

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1920s, you can't be proud of your economic record, can you?

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inherited the biggest deficit in our peacetime history. We are going

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through a period where we see a crisis in the eurozone and gross

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struggling in all developed countries. You can't be proud of

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that record. Of course we would like more growth, but we are proud

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of having the courage to deal with his big issue we inherited, the

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deficit, making difficult decisions, to when sure the UK is not in the

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front line. We have seen countries caught up in a real mess because

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the markets did not have faith in the credibility of their plans.

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don't think one can go one constantly saying this was left in

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a mess. When I had captains of ships, if they said the last

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captain was awful, there came a stage when I said I wanted a ship

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to be better and if it didn't improve I got rid of them. People

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need to think of that. This ship was not below the waterline! We

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have to leave it there. Thank you. The former head of the UK border

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force Brodie Clark has been appearing before a committee of MPs.

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Last week he resigned saying Mrs Major had made his position

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untenable by blaming him for relaxing passport checks are like

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that beyond the limits of a pilot scheme he organised. -- she

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organised. This is what he had to say earlier. I never went broke. I

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never extended without the Home Secretary's authority that initial

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trial for a further period of September through to November. It

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was the Home Secretary who clearly at request and on advice from me

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agreed that the trial could continue for a longer period in

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order to evidence the benefits it was delivering. Do your understand

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what you're saying? You're saying you had authority to do what you

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were doing and that the Home Secretary knew what you were doing

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and that is completely in contradiction to what she said to

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the house and his committee. I do not understand why she has said

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that. The continuation or extension of the trial was something we

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reported on, not in the same weekly basis we had previously been, but

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we had incorporated into the chief executive's weekly note to the

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immigration minister as an update on how things were going. With us

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now in the Conservative MP and former Home Office adviser David

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Ruffley. And Admiral Lord West. David Ruffley, has she committed

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the worst political sin of going to war with her civil servants? He is

:20:34.:20:38.

fighting back hard. I don't think he is fighting back terribly well.

:20:38.:20:43.

She was justified in following what Rob Whiteman did. He suspended him,

:20:43.:20:49.

it was not Theresa May. But was she right in publicly blaming Brodie

:20:49.:20:53.

Clark before having any of the investigations and before he had

:20:53.:20:58.

time to respond to? Up yes. In the House of Commons, all MPs who went

:20:58.:21:03.

to that debate wanted dancers, their constituents wanted answers.

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Theresa May had to tell it how it was. She was entirely justified in

:21:07.:21:13.

making her statement. Does she have a killer piece of evidence? Does

:21:13.:21:17.

she have a written piece of paper that says this is what I am

:21:17.:21:21.

authorised you to do and you have gone beyond it. We have got the

:21:21.:21:27.

exchange. Mrs May told MPs that officials will not be up --

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supposed to go on beyond the pilot. Is it possible Theresa May did not

:21:33.:21:37.

know what the pilot involved? Brodie Clark says he finds that

:21:37.:21:42.

difficult to imagine. If you listen to some of his earlier evidence, it

:21:42.:21:47.

shows that he was relaxing fingerprint controls on non-EU

:21:47.:21:50.

nationals well before the pilot. He said that several times this

:21:50.:21:55.

morning. He has to answer why he was doing this before the September

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pilot. Who do you believe? It is a real mess. I don't think I have

:22:00.:22:04.

seen such a mess. It is a dangerous thing to start picking on yours

:22:04.:22:09.

senior civil servants. You have to be very careful of your facts. I am

:22:09.:22:13.

very surprised we haven't seen anything of Damian Green, who is

:22:13.:22:17.

the minister who should be close upon this the entire time. That was

:22:17.:22:24.

his job, to do that for the Home Secretary. This is very disturbing.

:22:24.:22:27.

I'm sure the full truth will finally come out. I know Brodie

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Clark. It is extraordinary to think he would do that. It doesn't fit in

:22:31.:22:36.

with what I know of him. He is not a maverick, he doesn't go running

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wild. He ran a very taut prison, he was a very good prison governor.

:22:41.:22:47.

With respect... With respect, before the pilot there were three

:22:47.:22:49.

MPs on the Select Committee asking the question were you doing it

:22:49.:22:54.

before the pilot and he said yes. There were relaxations in 2008.

:22:54.:22:58.

That is under the last Labour government. Do you know what checks

:22:58.:23:02.

was suspended then? I am yet to see those guidelines. I don't know off

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the top of my head. For example, they have mentioned coaches. The

:23:09.:23:13.

Passenger Shipping Association said surely if you have a coach for of

:23:13.:23:16.

St Matthew's primary school children coming into the country,

:23:16.:23:20.

do we need to get every single one of them off and do all of the

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checks and it made sense not to do that. There was flexibility. Non EU

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nationals who should have had a fingerprint check, those were

:23:30.:23:34.

suspended. Brodie Clark said that this morning. I think the position

:23:34.:23:39.

is quite clear. He wasn't quite clear what he was going. He denies

:23:39.:23:49.
:23:49.:23:51.

it. Have you seen the evidence? think we ought to be careful.

:23:51.:23:55.

admitted it for. Normally there is a discussion between ministers and

:23:56.:23:59.

senior people about exactly what is going on, particularly a pilot

:23:59.:24:05.

scheme. If Brodie Clark wins his case for destructive --

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constructive dismissal, as looks likely, can she keep her job?

:24:09.:24:14.

don't know what will happen. she keep her job? Of course she can.

:24:14.:24:19.

She has been let down by the Civil Service. I think the Home Secretary

:24:19.:24:23.

is toast. I think she has had it. It is a shame because I like her,

:24:23.:24:28.

but I think this has been a mess. He will be run on that as he is on

:24:28.:24:33.

the whole recollection of his regime. The Prime Minister has

:24:33.:24:38.

given his full support so she is probably doomed! She will be there.

:24:38.:24:45.

That is sometimes the death knell. Agreement breaking out everywhere!

:24:45.:24:53.

30 years ago a lot of small boys wanted to be done sailors. That is

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what is written here! It appears now that many youngsters don't even

:25:00.:25:05.

know what the Navy is. They don't even know what the Navy is. We sent

:25:05.:25:10.

our guest of the day back to school. Some weeks ago I was travelling on

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the Tube and I was appalled when a youngster in a school party asked

:25:14.:25:19.

me what I did and then when I told him and said I was in the Navy, he

:25:19.:25:23.

said what is the navy? It was a shock. I had to spend some time

:25:23.:25:27.

telling them about the Navy, which caused a certain amount of

:25:27.:25:30.

amusement in the carriage, and some applause. One man said, you ought

:25:30.:25:35.

to do this all the time on the District line. Today I've come to

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St Matthew's Primary School in Westminster because I want to talk

:25:38.:25:44.

to the youngsters and tell them a bit about the Navy. Good morning.

:25:44.:25:48.

Good morning. I will sit over here. You have been told a little bit

:25:48.:25:53.

about me, have you? You will ask me some questions. Fantastic, I look

:25:53.:26:00.

forward to it. Who wants to start? Do you have lots of medals? I was

:26:00.:26:04.

awarded a distinguished Service Cross. This is a gallantry award.

:26:04.:26:10.

What it really represented was how well my sailors fought, but I got a

:26:10.:26:14.

distinguished Service Cross. I have a campaign medal, I have a couple

:26:14.:26:18.

of other metals. And then I have some grand things called a Knight

:26:18.:26:23.

Grand Cross for the order of Bath. A big star and a big thing around

:26:23.:26:27.

my neck and a big sash. It all looks like a big Christmas tree can

:26:27.:26:33.

actually! Is it a good idea to join the Navy? You have very close bond

:26:33.:26:38.

between all the people you serve with on a ship, and that is really

:26:38.:26:42.

good fun. It is like being at school, you have a lot of close

:26:42.:26:47.

mates. A lot of opportunities for sport. You can go skiing,

:26:47.:26:53.

parachuting, sailing, gliding. You travel all round the world. It is a

:26:53.:26:59.

fantastic thing to do. Did you lose any men in the war? I was captain

:26:59.:27:05.

of a ship called the frigate which had about 200 men. It was involved

:27:05.:27:10.

in the war in the Falkland Islands. My ship was bombed and sunk. It was

:27:10.:27:15.

hit by about seven bombs and sunk at the end of the day. Sadly in

:27:15.:27:20.

there fighting I lost 22 of my boys, who why remember very often at

:27:20.:27:25.

times. Everyone you lose, they are brothers and sisters, they have

:27:25.:27:29.

parents, they have children, it is really quite sad, but they were

:27:29.:27:33.

doing something very special for the nation. We succeeded in what we

:27:33.:27:38.

did and there was very important. You had them captivated! No

:27:38.:27:44.

question. You were the last to leave the ship as well. Let me ask

:27:44.:27:49.

you the big question of the day. How often do you travel by Tube in

:27:49.:27:54.

full ceremonial dress? Not very often! Do people talk to you when

:27:54.:28:03.

they do? One Tube journey from Westminster to Bond Street and one

:28:03.:28:09.

chap said, are you in the Navy? He did vaguely know and was interested.

:28:09.:28:14.

I don't do it very often and you do get looked at quite a bit! If

:28:14.:28:18.

you're on a train station, people want to buy tickets from you.

:28:18.:28:22.

one of the kids ask you about your time on the Titanic? He did. He

:28:22.:28:28.

said what was it like on the Titanic? Do what was it like? Good

:28:28.:28:35.

question. All right, admiral, thank you very much. That's it for today.

:28:35.:28:41.

No more Daily Politics for the rest of the week. We are ready to go,

:28:41.:28:45.

but hard-working MPs have decided to give themselves a mid-term break.

:28:45.:28:50.

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