28/11/2011 Daily Politics


28/11/2011

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Afternoon, welcome to The Daily Politics. As political weeks go,

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hold on - this one's going to be a bumpy ride. Today, we've had a

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warning. The OECD says the UK economy may double dip back into

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recession, and policy makers around the world must prepare to "face the

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worst". Tomorrow, the Chancellor George Osborne will set out how

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he's going to try and prove the doom-mongers wrong. The word on the

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Westminster street is that he's planning a "game-changer" budget.

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And on Wednesday, unless there's a last-minute change of mind, the

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unions walk out in a row over pensions. Schools will shut,

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airports will be in chaos and the Marines are on standby to man the

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borders. All we need now is for it All that, in the next half hour.

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With us for the whole programme today is Sir Michael Wilshaw, the

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man who's been called a "miracle maker". He made Mossbourne Academy

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Now he's becoming Chief Inspector of Schools. If you have any

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thoughts or comments on anything we're discussing, you can send them

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to us at [email protected] First today, the mass walkout by

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public sector workers on Wednesday looks certain to go ahead after

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Dave Prentis - he's the general secretary of the trade union,

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Unison - said there was "absolutely no chance" of reaching a deal with

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the Government. And earlier this morning, the Education Secretary

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Michael Gove raised the stakes in a strongly worded speech at the think

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tank, Policy Exchange. On Wednesday, TUC leaders will call on their

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members to bring Britain to a halt. Among those union leaders are

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people who fight hard for their members and whom I respect. But

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there are also hard liners, militants, itching for a fight.

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They want families to be inconvenienced. They want mothers

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to give up a day's work, or pay for expensive childcare, because

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schools will be closed. They want teachers and other public sector

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workers to lose a day's pay in the run-up to Christmas. Sir Michael

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Wilshaw was listening to the Education Secretary. Are you

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supporting the strikes? No, I don't. We have to face the fact that we

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have got 1 million or so young people unemployed, looking for a

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job, desperate for a job. They need to be given the skills and

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qualifications to get those jobs. They need to spend every day in

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school or college. They will be missing out. As far as I am

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concerned, the teaching force needs to think about the moral imperative

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of giving young people a chance to get on in life. What about your

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staff and their pensions? They have got a job and they have pensions.

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There are concerns about the level of those pensions but those young

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people will be struggling to get a job and get a pension in the first

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place. What about the day of action itself? Does it have a major impact

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on children's learning -- learning or is it just a days lost?

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disruption perfects schools, even a day out affects the routine of life.

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It is sometimes difficult to get it back to where it was. You had said

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that people should be grateful, teachers should be grateful they

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have got a job. There is quite a strong level of support from the

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public. The BBC poll has indicated there is 61% in favour, so people

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do feel some sympathy. Yes. There obviously is sympathy for some of

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the action that is being taken. But there must be other ways of

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resolving this dispute, rather than walking out of school and other

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education institutions. You think it is irresponsible for heads to

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follow action. Because there are examples of heads striking for the

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very first time. I wouldn't do it. I think the heads have got to weigh

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up their responsibilities. And the financial settlement over the last

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10 years has been good for headteachers. A lot of head

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teachers are on a good salary and they should think about that before

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turning to industrial action. we will have more on that later in

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the programme. Tomorrow - as I've said - we've got

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the Chancellor's big statement on the economy to the House of Commons.

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Technically, it's not supposed to be a Budget - just the normal

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updating of MPs about the state of our finances that takes place in

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the Autumn each year. But it will be a hugely important moment, one

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which will set out the Government's strategy for promoting growth in

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the context of some pretty dismal economic predictions today The OECD

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has predicted this morning that the UK will slip back into recession in

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the coming months. It's warned the world to be "prepared to face the

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worst". Tomorrow, George Osborne will tell the House how he plans to

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avoid a downturn. And if you read the papers, much of it has been

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heavily trailed. There's what's billed as �30 billion of spending

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on new infrastructure. Ministers claim to have found �10 billion of

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that, and are hoping private investors will put in the rest.

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There are plans to underwrite �20 billion of loans to smaller

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businesses. The Government says that could rise to as much as �40

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billion and will cut borrowing costs. There's a �1 billion scheme

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to get young people into work. We've heard a lot about this,

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except how it's being funded. And we've already had details of a plan

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to boost the housing market, with �400 million to build new homes and

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a mortgage-indemnity scheme. Rails fares were due to go up by 8% next

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year. It's widely tipped that he'll change that to 6%. And the planned

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3p rise in fuel duty due in January could be frozen or delayed. If

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you're wondering where all this money is coming from, the

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Government's message is you'll find out tomorrow. It's thought some may

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come from under-spending elsewhere, an increase in the banking levy or

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changes to in-work tax credits. Lets get more on this from our

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chief political correspondent, Norman Smith.

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We seem to have had the whole of the statement on the economy over

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the last few days. I can't recall an autumn statement, when so much

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has been trailed in advance. I guessed the truth is, the

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government want to sprinkle around some good news amidst the gloom

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that is before us. We have this relentless diet of bleak economic

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figures. You flagged up the OECD forecast this morning, suggesting

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we could be in two double-dip plant. What is interesting, talking to

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people in the Treasury -- we could be into double-dip land. Nobody is

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saying it is miles off target. They have picked off a few encouraging

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bits, such as the fact that other countries like France, Germany,

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Italy, could go into recession as well. Such as, the OECD backs the

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government's deficit reduction strategy. But they are not saying

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that the OECD has made a great mistake with their forecast. You

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sense there is a real fear that a sort of national gloom risks

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gripping the country. Which is why we have had these pre-announce

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since in the run-up to the How is George Osborne going to

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instil any sense of confidence without being realistic? A lot of

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it will be in the messaging, the idea that the government is not

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simply going to sit on its hands and wait and watch and see what

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happens. In other words, that they have a plan. The criticism will be,

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it doesn't look like plan a any more. -- it does not look like plan

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A any more. They will say it is more like plant growth. They are

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trying to buttress us from the economic storm looming in the

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eurozone, with the real fear that almost what ever George Osborne

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does in terms of credit easing, or getting pension funds to invest in

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infrastructure, almost what ever it does risks being totally

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overwhelmed by what is going on in the eurozone. Which is why David

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Cameron will be having a face-to- face bilateral with President

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Sarkozy at the end of the week, to try to get some sort of agreement

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before next week's crucial European Council meeting, to discuss what on

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earth you do about the eurozone crisis. Thank you.

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We have three rising stars with us in the studio now. Labour's Luciana

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Berger, Duncan Hames from the Liberal Democrats and the

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Conservative's Sam Gyimah. We have had this picture of gloom,

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it looks as if it is going to continue tomorrow, on the day of

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the Autumn Statement. You are not going to avoid recession, so what

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is the point of tinkering around the edges? I think what we are

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going to see tomorrow, and the word you used is confident. The

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Chancellor is going to look to restore confidence in the economy,

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firstly with the markets. We have burned low interest rates in a

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triple-A credit rating because of what we did last year when the

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coalition came into government -- we have earned low interest rates.

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We need to keep conference of the markets and give businesses

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confidence to invest. -- keep We also need confidence to get

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people back into work, hence the infrastructure plans, which are a

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very smart way of getting people into work. But we are talking about

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such small amounts of money. �20 billion, in terms of loans to small

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businesses. �30 billion of infrastructure spending, it is a

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drop in the ocean. Are you certain it is going to have a short-term

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effect in terms of boosting growth? The eurozone is probably a big

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issue... It is, but let's focus on those figures. We have heard the

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OECD saying we are going to be in recession in the next two quarters,

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how will �50 billion changed the picture? The government is using

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its balance sheet. Because the government can borrow at low rates,

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by reducing the interest rate that businesses can borrow at, it gives

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banks the confidence to lend. not just the �20 billion, banks can

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now feel that they can guy had to learn to business. The big issue,

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and you are absolutely right, the eurozone crisis. Commentators are

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saying, this is partly Ed Balls' proposal for the economy, so you

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must be delighted, Labour will be backing all of these plans. We wait

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to see the detail of what George Osborne comes out with tomorrow.

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You support what we have heard so far? We are very sceptical. On the

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infrastructure element, we wait to see if they are new projects or

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regurgitated projects. Ed Balls said to bring forward

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infrastructure projects. We will be delighted if they are new projects.

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If they are projects that are going ahead anyway, that will be

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problematic. We know it is not new money, the government has made that

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clear, but they are finding money from other areas. If that is the

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case, I presume tomorrow the response will be very positive.

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is about the whole package. Our is the OECD going to say we are going

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to see jobs creation and growth in the economy? On current indications

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we are going to see unemployment rise over the course of next year,

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right up to over 9%. And we are going to see growth flat lining.

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That is what we will judge tomorrow's Autumn Statement on and

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the indications are it will not be very positive. In terms of the

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amount of money we are talking about, Ed Balls was not suggesting

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much more, your plan would not work either. We want to see a whole

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package of things, not just infrastructure. We want to see a

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plan for jobs in growth which sees people in work and the economy

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growing. The infrastructure is just one element. If the government is

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going to come forward with four other points, we will be happy.

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Would you like to see bigger amounts of money boosting the

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economy? The last Labour government through the kitchen sink at the

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last financial crisis. In cleaning up that mess, we are rather more

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constrained. The level of borrowing we already have represents a

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significant financial stimulus into the economy. Were hearing about

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plans to open it that the tap further. Real projects that people

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will be able to see. We can talk about forecasts all we like but

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when real projects employ people in construction, when we are able to

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offer a contract that gets people into work, those are real measures

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that people will experience and will hopefully restore the

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confidence that we will be backing the economy. Why didn't they do it

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earlier? Would you like to have seen the coalition government make

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these plans earlier? I am glad we did not follow a path which leads

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us into the situation that other European countries are in. As the

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coalition keeps saying, Britain is not in the eurozone and apart from

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that, couldn't they have loosened on the fiscal side and perhaps we

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wouldn't have the unemployment levels just talked about, and

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wouldn't be having this problem with growth. I think mortgage

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payers will be glad we have not seen interest rates going in the

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direction they have in Europe. The coalition government did the right

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thing as to provide security in our economy, to weather this storm. It

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is more important that we do the right things now, it than we argue

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about what should have happened in the past. I am glad that is what,

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as a Liberal Democrat, this government seems set to do this

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week. The plan is not working. By the government's own estimates, we

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are set to borrow �46 billion than the government -- more than the

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government said we would. It might be as high as �100 billion more.

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The point is that the government's plan is not working. I think the

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key point is, Labour's plan is to spend more, which means borrow more,

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which means more debt. We have seen the bond markets will crucify us.

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In the last year we have laid the economic foundations to implement

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the measures that we have seen today. I am not seeing a credible

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alternative from Labour. The international consensus is that we

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cannot continue to borrow our way out of this crisis. The Government

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is already borrowing more, at least �46 billion more, it could be �100

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billion more. With tax receipts down and I'm up when it up, the

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borrowing is going to be higher. The -- unemployment up. George

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Osborne has said the plan has gone out of the window. What ever we are

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doing, a lot will be announced in the autumn statement and we are

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getting more detail. It is revenue neutral, it keeps the combatants of

:14:58.:15:08.
:15:08.:15:08.

the markets and gets businesses With a coalition keeping the

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market's calm, isn't it the time now to go for a proper plan B?

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shouldn't be throwing it away now. It's important to spend money but

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more important that it is spent well for the week to spend on

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projects to late foundation for rebalancing of things. Let's look

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at the youth contract, the Lib Dems have made that clear that that was

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their idea. Are you happy it has been funded from squeezing working

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tax credits? We will see how it's being funded. Would you be happy

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about that? You would rather squeeze working tax credits than

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spend any money? Unemployment is falling in my constituency but in

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my surgery last week, I had a young woman a masters graduate,

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struggling to find work, cannot persuade a supermarket to give her

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a job. It's a priority to make sure that talented young people in our

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country have the opportunity to work and if that means making

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difficult choices elsewhere, so be it. So you supported. It's so

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difficult now for young people to find work and that's why it's so

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important schools and colleges prepare them for the world of work

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and at any time off College, is not going to be a good thing.

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complaint about Labour is that you would risk Britain's position, risk

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but hard-fought position which says we are paying a lower interest

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rates than other eurozone countries. Are you prepared to do that? We're

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not in the eurozone so to compare ourselves to them... Are you

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prepared to risk it? It would be a risk. Labour is prepared to take

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that risk? We can't continue on the current course. From the figures

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tomorrow, unemployment will rise exponentially. It's going to go

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over 9 million. 9%. That's a prediction. Yes, indeed. I don't

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want to see any more of my constituents are unemployed. You

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made a point about the new youth contract was up in my constituency

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at the weekend, people were concerned about their children's

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future and the fact that they are not going to have the opportunities.

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In terms of opportunities on strikes, do think it's helpful to

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use that sort of language, militant unions on strike? It's helpful for

:17:37.:17:42.

him to address the issue head-on. To use that language? Sir Michael

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Wilshaw was talking about young people who can't get jobs and then

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taught me people who have got jobs and pensions, some of the best in

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the world, are saying we're going the other day of inaction. We had

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got to look at the broader context. Michael Gove was corrected to take

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it head-on. Shouldn't he be thankful they have got pensions?

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The Government is essentially slapping on a 3% tax on public

:18:08.:18:13.

sector workers. It's not negotiated. There was no discussion. They've

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had them for months now. Francis Maude has not met... I know that,

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but there are meetings going on. They should have been resolved and

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is over the weekend. Don't you think teachers are the right to

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fight for their pensions which they are built up all these years, and

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these are also tax paying hard- working families on the strikes?

:18:35.:18:38.

They are free to engage in illegal strike, which this is. Given the

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level of support for the strikes, how few of their members took part

:18:42.:18:47.

in those ballots supporting, I don't think there is the same moral

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pressure on other members of those unions to turn out on strikes they

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don't support. I heard from a school this morning when next

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teachers from, who decided not to close their school on Wednesday and

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I applaud that decision and I hope others will follow. I'm old enough

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to remember the industrial action much worse than this in the 1970s

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and 1980s bull that when I first became a headmaster in 1985, there

:19:17.:19:23.

was large-scale industrial action. It put back education for

:19:23.:19:27.

generations of children. Large numbers of children were failed by

:19:27.:19:32.

that action and we must not repeat those mistakes. Are you supporting

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the strikes? No one wants to see them going ahead. The Government

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needs to do everything it possibly can and have to bear the

:19:41.:19:45.

responsibility, the fact they are put on a 3% tax on public sector

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workers which goes straight back to the Treasury. What we have just

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heard there in terms of the consequences that can do, should

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they negotiate more, the Government? Give a little bit more

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and maybe it will be over? We have a comprehensive offer on the table

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for the clearly not enough as far as the unions are concerned. 15% of

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the workforce make no further contributions. People earning less

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than �21,000 year, their contributions go up by 1.5%. People

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within 10 years of retirement, no change. Is there room for a better

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offer? I think the Government has been very generous. The idea would

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be that the unions were willing to negotiate, not engaged in a low

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ballot turnout strike. I will find all three of you ahead of a

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statement tomorrow. Thank you. -- I will thank all three of you. And

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Andrew will be here tomorrow with a special programme bringing you full

:20:55.:20:58.

coverage of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement on the economy. The show

:20:58.:21:01.

starts at 1200. When George Osborne has done speaking, he'll bring you

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all kinds of reaction from key players in business and politics.

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So if you've got any thoughts in advance, then you can Twitter them

:21:07.:21:12.

now. The hashtag is: So when our guest Sir Michael Wilshaw takes

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over at Ofsted in the New Year, he will be in charge of applying some

:21:16.:21:20.

new school rules when it comes to how inspections work. They are as a

:21:20.:21:22.

result of Michael Gove's Education Bill which recently became law. To

:21:22.:21:26.

find out what effect those changes might have, Adam's been to a school

:21:26.:21:29.

in Sutton, which is in Surrey. An inspector won't call here for a

:21:29.:21:33.

while. Under the new system, schools which good Ofsted's top-

:21:33.:21:38.

rating, outstanding, like this one, won't get inspected any more unless

:21:38.:21:41.

concerns are raised. Pauline become a head teacher in the year that

:21:41.:21:46.

Ofsted was born. I'd been here 19 years and I've seen improvement

:21:46.:21:50.

after improvement. So I think something has to be working quite

:21:50.:21:57.

well but Ofsted is very, it's quite harsh process. The schools that do

:21:57.:22:02.

go through that process will have to jump through fewer hopes for

:22:02.:22:06.

that at the moment they are judged on 27 different headings. Now the

:22:06.:22:10.

focus will slowly be on results, the quality of teaching, leadership

:22:10.:22:15.

and behaviour, so that is down to just four areas. You could say it's

:22:15.:22:19.

quite narrow and I hope Ofsted inspectors understand we are

:22:19.:22:25.

dealing with children in schools and not just units of attainment.

:22:25.:22:29.

The reality for schools, sometimes, is a bit different to how Ofsted

:22:29.:22:34.

portrays it. Inspectors will have more time to do what I'm doing,

:22:34.:22:38.

sitting in the classroom, watching teachers teach. Although that's not

:22:38.:22:42.

popular with the unions, will not convince the value of a good

:22:42.:22:45.

teacher can be measured just by observation. At the school gate, I

:22:46.:22:51.

tried out another innovation. Ofsted's new Web site where parents

:22:51.:22:59.

can raid to their child's school by answering 12 questions. Thisfor a

:22:59.:23:04.

nasty comments. We all go on holiday, and you can read a good

:23:04.:23:08.

review and a bad experience yourself, so it's there as an extra

:23:08.:23:13.

tool, isn't it? Can you see any downside to this? People who have

:23:13.:23:17.

something to say will come to said, whereas people who are happy but

:23:17.:23:22.

have nothing specific to say, may not make the effort to say it. You

:23:22.:23:27.

may get a very skewered opinion. you look at schools as a business,

:23:27.:23:32.

we other clients, customers, and, yeah, it should be as inspecting

:23:32.:23:37.

schools, I believe. In the new year, Michael Gove will also be giving

:23:37.:23:39.

parents league tables in a new format which will contain more

:23:39.:23:43.

detail about how pupils are progressing, which is designed to

:23:44.:23:49.

reveal schools that are apparently coasting, hiding behind the Celts

:23:49.:23:53.

which a decent but not great. -- hiding behind results. And Sir

:23:53.:24:01.

Michael is still with us. Is observing a teacher sufficient?

:24:01.:24:05.

It's one of his important than a head teacher does, inspectors do,

:24:05.:24:08.

going to a classroom and see the engagement between teachers and

:24:08.:24:14.

children. You do it more regularly, I suppose bought up I'm a forever

:24:14.:24:24.
:24:24.:24:28.

popping into classes. -- you do it Their hair teacher said inspections

:24:28.:24:35.

are harsh. -- the head teacher. What do you mean by that? I don't

:24:35.:24:40.

think so. I've been through half-a- dozen inspections, they are always

:24:40.:24:45.

stressful, but you have got nothing to worry about it you are doing

:24:45.:24:49.

things well. Only it or not doing things particularly well. But

:24:49.:24:54.

inspectors have got to have a human face, the personable people, engage

:24:54.:24:59.

the senior staff, the head teacher, and governors, and are not which

:24:59.:25:06.

find his general. They have got some of the school is like. I mean,

:25:06.:25:10.

this idea that you stop inspecting schools because they are judged as

:25:10.:25:15.

outstanding, is that the right way to go? When they just rest on their

:25:15.:25:19.

laurels? Some might, but what's happening at the moment, those

:25:19.:25:24.

schools which are judged outstanding but attainment levels

:25:24.:25:29.

are dropping all there is a concern from parents, for example,

:25:29.:25:32.

inspectors will look and see whether they still deserve the

:25:32.:25:37.

outstanding rating. Would you want to see those schools visited

:25:37.:25:40.

continually? The head teacher at their said she would welcome

:25:41.:25:44.

inspectors because standards would be kept high. There is a concern we

:25:44.:25:50.

don't really see outstanding schools and therefore they should

:25:51.:25:56.

have a benchmark to judge others, so we need to watch that. I'm

:25:56.:26:01.

anxious the survey system is used so they look at a survey from

:26:01.:26:11.
:26:11.:26:14.

Oxford without looking at the full picture -- Ofsted. Are they come in

:26:14.:26:19.

now, Ofsted inspectors, without giving all that lead up time. They

:26:19.:26:22.

used to write to the school and say we are coming in a few weeks.

:26:22.:26:26.

it's much better and there is a case for no notice inspections but

:26:26.:26:30.

there was a real concern coming from parents or others about the

:26:30.:26:35.

performance of the school. We build you as a miracle made at the top of

:26:35.:26:40.

the programme. What is your recipe for success? The strong leadership,

:26:40.:26:45.

good teaching, good assessment systems, studies support and so

:26:45.:26:52.

forth. But the most important game is in no excuses culture. If we're

:26:52.:26:57.

going to do something about standards in Our Country,

:26:57.:26:59.

particularly in our most disadvantaged and deprived

:26:59.:27:04.

communities, it has got to be in no excuses culture, no matter what

:27:05.:27:10.

background, ethnicity, you have, so one, we will deliver for you.

:27:10.:27:20.
:27:20.:27:20.

was your thing? We expected pupils to achieve. Or you would stay

:27:20.:27:24.

behind after school for extra classes boss of you would pay

:27:24.:27:32.

It's part of their contract and they would come in on Saturday

:27:32.:27:36.

mornings. They stay often until 7pm to work with children falling

:27:36.:27:41.

behind. Did you find the unions difficult in terms of these

:27:41.:27:45.

negotiations? No, I've got a good relationship with them and my view

:27:46.:27:49.

is the great majority of teachers what to do the best by their

:27:49.:27:53.

children. And are prepared to go the extra mile. There will be a lot

:27:53.:27:58.

of new information coming, and there were new types of schools are

:27:58.:28:02.

so well that make it more difficult? No, I think it will be

:28:02.:28:06.

easier. What parents need to the Gatt is whether the school is

:28:06.:28:11.

adding value to their children's education. Will that come out of

:28:11.:28:18.

the Ofsted experience? Yes, it will be easier to have parents

:28:18.:28:24.

identifying what is a coasting school for the.. Thank you very

:28:25.:28:28.

much for joining That's all for today. Thanks to all our guests,

:28:28.:28:33.

especially to Michael Wilshaw. Good luck with your job from January.

:28:33.:28:35.

Another reminder that Andrew's back tomorrow at noon with that Daily

:28:35.:28:38.

Politics special. Live coverage of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement

:28:38.:28:43.

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