12/01/2012 Daily Politics


12/01/2012

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Good afternoon from the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh where Alex

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Salmond is holding his first First Ministers' Questions of 2012.

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Inside the chamber everyone is agreed there should be a referendum

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on Scottish independence. But they are anything but agreed on WHEN and

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exactly what question the Scottish It's a beautiful sunny day here in

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the Scottish capital, but there have been some pretty stormy scenes

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in the chamber behind me just up these steps. For First Minister

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Alex Salmond, sparring with the New Labour leader here in Scotland,

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Johanne Lamont, frankly it wasn't very pretty. I had to avert my eyes.

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She accused Mr Salmond of not wanting a referendum very quickly.

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She said there should be one sooner rather than later. She even accused

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the First Minister of lacking courage. It's not fair on Scotland

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now or the Scotland of the future for the timing of this referendum

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to be in the hands of one politician. A Now, the First

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Minister, Alex Salmond, has already told the Prime Minister, David

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Cameron, to butt out of all of this business of a referendum, to stop

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stirring, but we have been doing a bit of stirring ourselves. We sent

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Max out with "the mood Bob," of the Daily Politics to find out what

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people down south think of Scottish independence. Anyone else -

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Scotland? Should it be independent, yes or no? No! The Government says

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it must press ahead to controversial changes to the

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welfare reform which were defeated in the House of Lords last night.

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And we'll be delving into the relationship between the police and

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the media - are they too close for comfort?

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Yes, all that coming up in the next half hour. And with us for the

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duration is the former Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, Ian,

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now Lord Blair. Welcome to the programme. Thank you very much.

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first this morning let's talk about welfare reform because last night

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the Government suffered a series of defeats in the House of Lords over

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its plans to cut the cost of welfare. Labour and cross-bench

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peers defeated plans to means test and time limit payments to those

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recovering from serious illnesses such as cancer. Peers also

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overturned a plan to restrict young people with disabilities from

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claiming benefits. You, Ian, were one of them, weren't you? I was.

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What was the strength of the feeling like? I think the strength

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of the feeling was very considerable. I am a new boy in

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there, but I am told by the old hands it's a very, very long time

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since the Government has lost three divisions in a row and by

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significant margins. The Government has already said this morning -

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Christopher grailing has been out saying we're going to overturn

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those defeats, and you're wrong on this issue. Obviously, the

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Government has the right to put it back to the Commons and change it,

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but the mood of the Lords was summed up by the really marvellous

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Lord Patel, the obstetrician, who led the amendments, who said if

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we're going to rob the poor to pay the rich, then that is the kind of

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morality I cannot support. And the whole issue here is that the most

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vulnerable people - the people recovering from cancer, the people

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with long-term disabilities, are going to lose money in a

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significant way, to the extent of nearly �100 a week in some cases,

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and in particular this issue of what's called the Education Support

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Allowance. There is a suggestion that the people would be limited to

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just one year of that as from April, but also they're going to back date

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it, so if you have been on it for a year you're going to lose it on the

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first day. The Government no doubt made its case in the House of Lords

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today and has reiterated it saying actually they have made adequate

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provision for those people. The welfare reforms are the centrepiece

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of their policy plan, and if the defeats you put on the Government

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last night were to go ahead, it would cost between �1.5 and �2

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billion that has to be claimed somewhere. That is an important

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issue. Hugely important, but those figures, as I understand them,

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relate to absolutely everybody taking the maximum period they

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could possibly do. One of the instances is, for instance, cancer

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patients who are undergoing chemotherapy and so on - wented

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that period extended beyond one year. Everybody who knows anything

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at it says that most people want to go back to work as soon as possible.

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It's part of the therapy, but some can't. This is an issue that no

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doubt will come back. Stay with us. We're going to return to Edinburgh

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and Andrew Neil who is at the Holyrood Parliament. Thanks. All

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the headlines in the coverage for this in London and Edinburgh have

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been dominateded by the process, when will the referendum be? Should

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there be more than one question, an interim question between status quo

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and independence? Who should look after the referendum? Should it be

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the Electoral Commission or so on? When we were today offered an

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interview with Scotland's Finance Minister, John Swinney, I thought

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we'd park the process for a minute and ask a bit of substance about

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what an independent Scotland would look like in his view, so I began

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by asking him, what would the currency be if Scotland was

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independent? It would be sterling. We have made it clear that would be

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the currency we'd inherit, inherit those arrangements from the United

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Kingdom. That is the basis on which we would plan independence. There

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is a debate to be had about the European central currency, but we

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have set out we'd only ever go into a single currency if the economic

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conditions were correct and if the people of Scotland voted for that

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in a referendum, and the economic conditions in our opinion most

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definitely are not correct for that at this time, so sterling would be

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the currency... So Bank of England - the Bank of England would set an

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independent Scotland's interest rates? We would have to operate in

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that fashion if that was the operation of the Bank of England...

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So interest rates would be set by London? The key proposition that

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would be different about independence in that context is

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that a Scottish Government would be able to pursue its own fiscal

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policy which would enable an independent Scotland to take

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significantly more decisions than can ever be taken today about

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ensuring that we have the economic conditions and interventions that

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are appropriate for the needs and the aspirations of the Scottish

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economy. That's fiscal policy, but you wouldn't control your own

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interest rates or money supply? You couldn't print your own money, is

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that right? But what we would be... Is that right? The Bank of England

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would be able to take decisions... Yeah, the Bank of England would

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take decisions about a country in which it was not part and didn't

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care about. But obviously, if it was operating - if the currency was

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part of the jurisdiction of the Bank of England, if that was part

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of the agreement and approach that we took, then the Bank of England

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would operate in a fashion that was appropriate to those economic

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circumstances, but what we would also be able to do - and this is a

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crucial point, Andrew - there would be a separate distinction about

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fiscal policy that would be able to be taken forward about a Scottish

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Government which would give us significantly more economic

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influence and leverage than we have at the present time, and... That's

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not what I am asking about. Would - the Bank of England would also

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control how much you could borrow, correct? Well, the Bank of England

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- the Scottish Government would determine what degree of borrowing

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it was able to take forward. the Bank of England would have to

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have a say-so to that. It would have to do so within a sustainable

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climate and framework. Set by the Bank of England. That's where you

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have to take into account the fact that we have both - there is a

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debate about monetary policy and also fiscal policy because what

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fiscal policy enables you to do is to create a more prosperous set of

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conditions and deliver a greater degree of growth. I understand that

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an independent Scotland sets its own tax. No. I would like you to

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answer this question. Would the Bank of England control how much

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you could borrow? Let me complete this point - what's important about

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fiscal policy is it can influence the amount of growth you can

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deliver in the economy, which is clearly a fact of the influences -

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the degree of borrowing that is required to be undertaken soo. You

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would have to apply to join the European Union. No, we wouldn't.

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But Scotland isn't a part of the you'reene union. We're clearly a

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part of it today. We inherit the obligations of the United Kingdom...

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Do you have guidance from Brussels you wouldn't have to rejoin? If you

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look at some... Have you had guidance from Brussels? If you look

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at the most distinguished opinion on this suffered offered by one of

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the secretaries of the European Commission, if you look at a report

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by Eamon Gallagher - the treaty obligations of the United Kingdom

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and being already a member of the European Union... Sure. The Royal

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Bank of Scotland - 83% owned by the UK taxpayer. Who would own it after

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independence? That would obviously be part of the dialogue that would

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have to take place between the United Kingdom Government... Would

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you take it over? Clearly, we would have an interest in the ownership

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of the Royal Bank of Scotland, but it would be part of a negotiation

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between the Scottish Government and UK... But is it the policy of the

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Scottish Nationalists the Royal Bank of Scotland should become a

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wholly owned Scottish bank again? What it should become in our

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aspiration is a privately owned bank, and we'd want to encourage

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the bank as soon as it is efficiently able to do so to become

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a privately owned bank. That is what it should be. I understand

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that. For the foreseeable future, it doesn't look like it's happening.

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It's owned by the state at the moment. Will the Scottish state

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take it over? The UK Government has disposed of its interests in

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Northern Rock. What's the answer to my question? Will the Scottish

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state take over the Royal Bank of Scotland? My to answer you is

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twofold. One is the fact that the Scottish Government would negotiate

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that with the United Kingdom Government, what the ongoing

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arrangements were. Secondly, we would have the aspiration, just

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like the UK Government has, to return the Royal Bank of Scotland

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to its proper place within the private sector which I think will

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happen soon. In the interim, will you take over its toxic assets as

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well? That's part of the interests the UK has within the Royal Bank of

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Scotland. It has to be properly negotiated between the two

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governments. What's important is the Royal Bank of Scotland is on a

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journey to get back into private ownership. We'd want to encourage

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that. That was John Swinney talking to the SNP earlier on. A lot of

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people in England and Wales think Scottish independence is as much

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matter for them as the people of Scotland. We sent Max out with the

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mood box to see what the people of London thought. It's an ancient

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political debate - independence for Scotland - should we hold our

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Scottish brothers and sisters to our bosom in a United Kingdom of

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Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or should Scotland be unhitched and

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pushed out into the North Atlantic? That's the question - do we want an

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Scotland - should it be independent? Yes or no? Pop a poll

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in the box? No. OK. No, no, no. Half my roots are Scottish and half

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English, so I don't wish to divide my allegiances. I voted no.

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voted no. Great. I was going to vote yes.

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Because I think it would be a good idea that we wouldn't have to pay

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for their National Health. think they should pay for their own

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National Health? I definitely do. Do you think the English People

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should get a vote on Scottish independence? With Scottish genes,

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yes. You voted no. Why is that? think a Act of Union was correct in

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1707. Would you vote to make Scotland independent? Yes, I would

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do. It's because you love Scotland? I love Scotland. I love the

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Scottish people. We have only been at it half an hour, and it's very

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evenly matched between yes and no, but what lots and lots of people

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are saying is there should be a third box which says it's up to the

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Scottish people. Ultimately, politically, it needs

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to be Scotland's decision, but I don't think it's realistic. Keep

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together. I kind of want them to be independent, so it shows them how

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isolating it is to be alone. aren't we getting a vote as well?

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Why do you think we should get a vote in England? I think it affects

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England as well as Scotland. We should get a vote too. Are you

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French? Should it be independent or not? Lieb, OK.

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I am conflicted here because the only reason the Tories are giving

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us independence is so there are less Labour MPs in Parliament.

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that the only reason? I am bloody sure that's the reason. Is it

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Andrew Neil? Yeah, yeah. If only you said, in which case... You're

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going to vote no. Right. Time is up - lots of people voting. The yeses

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are just about ahead after an hour- and-a-half. My two favourite

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comments have been, firstly, what on earth are you doing asking this

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question in London, you burke? The second, which is the box for

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rebuilding Hadrian's Wall? LAUGHTER

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That's very funny. Evenly split there as well. I am joined by Lord

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Foulkes, and, of course, Ian Blair is with us too. Does it take two to

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separate, as we heard some people saying here? I think that is very

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good point. There is a legitimate English interest. I am in favour of

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a federal system. I want to see devolution to England. Don't put

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any other options forward, please! I thought it was very interesting,

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Andrew's interview with John Swinney. You can see why they don't

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want an earlier referendum. He couldn't answer the question on

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currency, on RBS, on European membership. He didn't even get on

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to the army, Navy and air force. There are so many unanswered

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questions. That is the point. It has been about the process - or a

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large part of the discussion has been about the process. Once we get

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into the substance of it, it may be more difficult in terms of

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presenting an argument as far as the SNP is concerned, is that your

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view? Yes. I think they want to delay it as much as possible.

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give them more time? Yes, to work up their arguments. I am also

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worried they're trying to fix the referendum because what is

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absolutely vital is that the Electoral Commission must run it,

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an independent body. That's same all over the world. Electoral

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Commissions do that. What they want to do is run it themselves - decide

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the timing... They would argue they confounded expectations last year,

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and they won, and they won very decisively in those elections, and

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one might say as a result partly of Labour's failure in Scotland. Do

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you accept Labour hasn't performed well in Scotland and has allowed

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Alex Salmond and the SNP to perform as well as it snas I think that's

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inevitably a conclusion you're right to draw.

:16:08.:16:15.

But he got 45% of the vote. They talk about an overwhelming mandate.

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45% is not overwhelming. They have always made their position clear.

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We have said that they have got a right for a referendum to be

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conducted. We have accepted that. What was said by Michael Moore in

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the Commons yesterday quite rightly is they don't have the legal

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ability to do it. We can give them the power to do that, but it must

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be done fairly. There was a statesman-like agreement in the

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House of Commons yesterday between David Cameron and Ed Miliband

:16:45.:16:47.

yesterday over the future of Scotland and Scottish independence.

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Do you agree that the Prime Minister could end up being the

:16:50.:17:00.
:17:00.:17:04.

best recruiting sergeant for an That's quite possible. I think

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there are voices coming forward now, from all over the United Kingdom,

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saying this is a bigger issue than just about Scotland. There was a

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very good article in the Telegraph yesterday about the nature of

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British identity, that actually the Scots and the English and the Irish

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and the Welsh have developed an identity which is a force for good

:17:27.:17:31.

p -- in the world. Do you think it was a mistake for some of Labour's

:17:31.:17:36.

big beasts from, Scotland, to come down to Westminster? Have they

:17:36.:17:41.

ignored and forgotten it? No, we live up there. We are active in

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Scottish politic. We have to be active in British politics as well.

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We are Scottish, blish, we are European. That is the -- British,

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we are European. That is the modern way to look at it. To talk about

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hundreds of years is really turning the clock back in a ridiculous way.

:17:58.:18:03.

Let's go back to Edinburgh now. Here in Edinburgh I am joined by

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two of the finest of Her Majesty's press core here in the Holyrood

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Parliament, Lorraine Davidson from The Times and Alan Cochrane.

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If the Scottish nationalists, if this Parliament goes ahead with a

:18:25.:18:30.

referendum, on its own terms, would it immediately be challenged in the

:18:30.:18:34.

courts? I think it will be. That will mean the referendum is held up,

:18:34.:18:40.

possibly, for years, beyond Alex Salmond's term in power. You will

:18:40.:18:44.

then have some sort of civil movement, where people are saying,

:18:44.:18:48.

didn't we vote for this? Isn't it our democratic right? All that will

:18:48.:18:53.

amount to a lot of frustration and anger in Scotland. David Cameron's

:18:53.:18:58.

offer to Alex Salmond, is despite all of Alex Salmond's bluster, a

:18:58.:19:02.

very attractive one to him. If he wants to put his once in a lifetime

:19:02.:19:06.

opportunity to the people of Scotland. If fear a referendum, if

:19:06.:19:10.

he does not negotiate with London would be unconstitutional, because

:19:10.:19:16.

it is a reserved power of the Scotland Roit Act. That is for all

:19:16.:19:26.
:19:26.:19:28.

the bluster and Mr Cameron being -- that is for doing a deal? There are

:19:28.:19:33.

two Alex Salmond could do a deal on now. He could do a deal about the

:19:33.:19:38.

16 year olds voting. He has to have an independent overseeing of the

:19:39.:19:45.

referendum. He cannot apoint three pals to say, "That is fine, on you

:19:45.:19:54.

go." It has George Reid. One of the founders of modernism.

:19:54.:19:58.

This explains why he's trying to kick the referendum into 2014, why

:19:58.:20:03.

he wants more than one question. If there was a simple - do you want to

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be independent or don't you? Yes or no? If that was held now, the Scots

:20:09.:20:14.

would probably vote "no", am I right? It is running around one-

:20:14.:20:20.

third of Scots. It has been as long as that. It has always been around

:20:20.:20:24.

one-third. There's no great momentum behind demand for

:20:25.:20:28.

independence. It's a high-risk strategy. If he gos to the people

:20:28.:20:33.

with that and he loses it, they cannot come back with that question.

:20:33.:20:37.

He wants a consolation prize. He wants to come away and say people

:20:37.:20:40.

in Scotland have demonstrated what they want is sweeping new powers

:20:40.:20:46.

for the Parliament. Then he can go to party and say, all we have to do

:20:46.:20:48.

now is the final piece of the jigsaw.

:20:48.:20:54.

Is he frightened he would lose it if it went now and it was a simple

:20:54.:20:59.

yes or no question? Yes. Otherwise we would have had the referendum.

:20:59.:21:02.

We've been talking about independence since you and I were

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boys. That was not yesterday. is at least ten years ago. I have

:21:07.:21:13.

been back in Scotland for 17 years. It has been in the agenda and

:21:13.:21:17.

newspapers for every day of those 17 years. Alex wants another three

:21:17.:21:23.

years. What is left to discuss? Alan Cochrane has offered to take

:21:23.:21:29.

us for lunch. You never turn an offer down like that from Mr

:21:29.:21:32.

Cochrane. It's all right for some. See you

:21:32.:21:36.

next week. Is the relationship between the police and media too

:21:36.:21:40.

cosy? Last week a report found the close relationship between parts of

:21:40.:21:43.

Scotland Yard and the media had caused serious harm. We will get

:21:43.:21:47.

the thoughts of our guess of the day in a moment. He used to be in

:21:47.:21:57.
:21:57.:22:00.

charge of the Metropolitan Police. Welcome to the Red Lion. It is one

:22:00.:22:05.

of my Westminster locals. If I was a crime reporter it is the sort of

:22:05.:22:09.

place I might sink a jar or three with some of my Scotland Yard

:22:09.:22:13.

contacts N the wake of the phone hacking scandal that could be a

:22:13.:22:17.

thing of the past. Socialising and flirting between journalism coppers,

:22:17.:22:27.

a bit of a no, no. Elizabeth Filkin has devised a new set of rules.

:22:27.:22:34.

Very briefly, clearer guidelines on briefings and more transparency are

:22:34.:22:38.

in. Cosy chats, leaking to your favourite journalists, they are out.

:22:38.:22:42.

They are likely to be adopted by other police forces as well. Will

:22:42.:22:46.

they work? It is really important that the newspapers and police

:22:46.:22:50.

establish a much clearer line between what is incorrect and what

:22:50.:22:53.

is correct. For instance, I don't think they should be wining and

:22:53.:22:59.

dining. They should have meetings, maybe a coffee, but not a bottle of

:22:59.:23:02.

champagne. Without that informal contact can we find out what is

:23:02.:23:06.

really going on? She talks about openness and transparency in her

:23:06.:23:10.

report. At the same time, she talks about threatening ordinary officers

:23:10.:23:15.

with criminal investigations and the sack if they have informal

:23:15.:23:18.

conversations with journalists they trust. That seems to be closing

:23:18.:23:22.

down an avenue for police officers who have concerns about racism,

:23:23.:23:25.

malpractice to talk to journalists they trust and to get that

:23:25.:23:30.

information out there. Now, she would say that perhaps. What about

:23:30.:23:35.

a veteran of some of Britain's toughest murder cases? Has anyone

:23:35.:23:40.

over a couple of pints got more out of you than you intended to say?

:23:40.:23:45.

find that hysterical. No way. I am sure if you spoke to most, they

:23:45.:23:49.

will say never go for a drink with Sue, I will drink them under the

:23:49.:23:52.

table, as will many of my colleagues. We've had a trusting

:23:52.:23:57.

relationship. I think for the sake of one or two people who have

:23:57.:24:02.

behaved or perceived to behave inappropriately with the media it

:24:02.:24:07.

is a sledgehammer to crack a nut. One of the former commissioners,

:24:07.:24:11.

when he was faced a scandal he told officers to be open and talk to the

:24:11.:24:15.

media, talk to other people about their concerns. He thought shining

:24:15.:24:18.

a light on a scandal was better than covering things up. It is a

:24:18.:24:22.

thought. With the police and media both facing huge pressure to reform,

:24:22.:24:27.

is this drinking-up time and a last chance salon?

:24:27.:24:34.

Of course, Ian Blair is here. Let's pick up on the wining and dining

:24:34.:24:39.

issue. Will in the end, a report end up closing communications

:24:39.:24:42.

between the police and media? Communications that are in the

:24:42.:24:47.

words of the detective in that film and also the crime reporter, a good

:24:47.:24:53.

thing? I think Elizabeth Filkin has fired a bun der blast at this.

:24:53.:24:58.

There are two or thing things going on. You have the relationship for -

:24:58.:25:03.

let me stop for a second, it may appear that I may appear in front

:25:03.:25:06.

of the Leveson Inquiry to talk about this.

:25:06.:25:13.

Of course. There is an issue between senior officers and

:25:13.:25:18.

journalists. That will have an examination. That's the wining and

:25:18.:25:22.

dining thing. That was too much about.... There is a suggestion it

:25:22.:25:27.

was becoming a bit frequent. Then at the really difficult end of the

:25:27.:25:31.

scale you clearly have got a small number of police officers and a

:25:32.:25:34.

small number of journalists who are prepared to exchange information

:25:34.:25:38.

for money. That is illegal. The people involved, on both sides,

:25:38.:25:41.

should be arrested and, if the evidence is there, should be

:25:41.:25:46.

charged and put before the courts. It's the middle bit that Sue Hill

:25:46.:25:51.

was talking about. I am with Robert. I think we should

:25:51.:25:55.

have a really open relationship with the press inside the police.

:25:55.:25:58.

We should meet journalists, we should talk. We should not give

:25:58.:26:02.

away matters which are confidential. But we should have a situation in

:26:02.:26:09.

which a police officer, who feels something is wrong, as soon as any

:26:09.:26:13.

other whistleblower should be in that situation. Is it difficult to

:26:13.:26:18.

control those relationships if alcohol is involved? Elizabeth says

:26:18.:26:23.

alcohol and journalists don't mix, avoid flirtation. It sound relick

:26:23.:26:32.

douse. Surely you are -- ridiculous, surely you are grown ups. It's a

:26:32.:26:38.

long time since I have been in the position of being a middle-ranking

:26:38.:26:42.

or junior officer. I don't recall a situation in which people were

:26:42.:26:46.

getting drunk together. These are conversations that need to happen,

:26:46.:26:53.

the same way as conversations need to happen between other parts of

:26:53.:26:57.

the state with journalism. That is what a free press is there. There

:26:57.:27:01.

should be a clear code of conduct and people should stick by it.

:27:01.:27:05.

There is a code of conduct. As you say, financial transactions are

:27:05.:27:10.

illegal any way. How can you really stop these things happening? Well,

:27:10.:27:16.

the question is, what are we trying to stop? I hope leveson will find a

:27:16.:27:20.

distinction between the elements wrapped up in this conversation.

:27:20.:27:23.

What about the links with politicians? It's not just about

:27:23.:27:26.

the media. You talked about officers, particularly at the top

:27:26.:27:32.

level. Is that relationship also too cosy? You will no doubt be

:27:32.:27:37.

asked about that too?. I think it is inevitable. The Metropolitan

:27:37.:27:41.

Police deals with the most difficult inquiries. It deals with

:27:41.:27:44.

the protection of the Royal Family and counter-terrorism. Are we going

:27:44.:27:47.

to say the commissioner is not going to speak to the Home

:27:47.:27:51.

Secretary about that. That is inevitable. The relationship

:27:51.:27:55.

between journalists and police officers will continue. In the end,

:27:55.:28:03.

will anything fundamentally change as a result of the Leveson Inquiry?

:28:03.:28:08.

I think, I really do hope some things will change. It did become,

:28:08.:28:14.

in my view looking back, a too cosy relationship between some senior

:28:14.:28:19.

officers and some journalists and editors. I think that has to be, at

:28:19.:28:24.

least clearer - I think is the right description. I am with Robert

:28:24.:28:30.

Mark. We should shine a clear light T publication of diaries by senior

:28:30.:28:34.

police officers - I don't mean memoirs - I mean the daily diary,

:28:34.:28:39.

it seems to me really important. have time for you to pick one of

:28:39.:28:43.

these out of the big mug. This is the winner of the Guess The Year.

:28:43.:28:51.

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