03/05/2012 Daily Politics


03/05/2012

Andrew Neil and Jo Coburn with the latest political news including elections in France and Greece and whether the weather will affect the turnout at the local elections in the UK.


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Good afternoon and welcome to the Daily Politics. Mervyn King admits

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he should have shouted from the rooftops about the risks ahead of

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the financial crisis. In a speech last night, the Governor of the

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Bank of England admitted mistakes had been made in the past and

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pledged that the Bank of England would regulate the banking system

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:01:12.:01:12.

better in the future. ARGUING IN FRENCH.

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There were some angry exchanges between President Sarkozy and his

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socialist challenger, Francois Hollande, last night in the only

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television debate of the French election campaign.

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Here, voters go to the polls today in a whole host of elections in

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England, Scotland and Wales. And with all the bad weather we

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have been having recently, will it affect voter turn-out? We will be

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exploding some election myths. All that in the next hour between

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now and 1pm. And with us for the duration Howard

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Davies. He has done so many jobs, we are losing count, but he's now a

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professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. It's

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called Sciences Po. Bienvenu, mon petit mange-tout. Now we are not

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really allowed to talk about domestic politics today for fear of

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influencing your vote. If only we could! So I'm going to sing for the

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:02:19.:02:22.

next 58 minutes. No! La la la! Will you join in? No! I can laugh in

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French! OK, I'll put you out of misery and you can watch this. I

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think our ratings just went up! I will do what I'm paid to do. Lets

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talk about the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King, who last

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night had this to say. Our power was limited to that of publishing

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reports and preaching sermons, and we did preach sermons about the

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risks, but we didn't imagine the scale of the disaster of what would

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occur when the risks crystallised. With the benefit of hindsight, we

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should have shouted from the rooftops that a system had been

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built, in which banks were too important to fail, banks had grown

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too quickly and borrowed too much, and that so-called light touch

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regulation had not presented -- prevented any of this all-star the

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first radio address by a Bank of England governor for 17 years.

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much did Mervyn King actually admit to? I think he is saying mistakes

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began in the financial markets themselves and people who run the

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banks and their shareholders are responsible, but they should not be

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expecting to run for support from the government so the problems

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started there, but the lock plot is there was a collective view,

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including politicians from all sides, regulators and the central

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bank, that things were fine. Inflation was low, the economy was

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growing, the Orrell wing was going up, we were having fun -- borrowing.

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Somebody should have been the person to shout that the emperor

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has no clothes, and I think he thinks in hindsight, that should

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have been him. He did hint that he was starting to preach sermons

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about the risk of the banking sector and he used the term

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"shouted from the rooftops". Was he saying this quietly? If you look

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back, you can see some warnings from the Bank of England. The Bank

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of International settlements in Switzerland was louder in its

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complaints. The IMF was very silent indeed, they said the risks were

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very low, so there was not a strong consensus among central bankers

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that things were going wrong, but what is interesting about this

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beach is that there is within central bank's major rethinking

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about what a central bank should be -- about his speech. There was a

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view that if you concentrated on inflation, if that was under

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control, that was a sufficient condition for financial stability.

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Now people have realised that is not enough. We will talk more about

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this. So the government plans to scrap

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the Financial Services Authority and hand most of its powers to

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various committees of the Bank of England. But will the FSA's

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replacement really be any more likely to protect us all than what

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went before? We sent our own City slicker David Thompson to find out.

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Kerry Reed Wharf, where money talks and everything else walks -- Canary

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Wharf. At its heart, the Financial Services Authority, at least for

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now. The FSA came into being during the Ali days of the new Labour

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government and the idea was to create a single regulator for

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pretty much everything -- the early days. You could argue it was doing

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Panic ran amok in the city. So how long would all this misery last?

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All of which sounded the death- knell for the FSA, so clearly it

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had to go. Did it? Who was fit for purpose during this financial

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crisis? Everybody was lacking? The politicians were lacking, the Bank

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of England was lacking, the Financial Services Authority was

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lacking, the industry was lacking, foreign banks, hugely. I don't

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think it merits searching for who is going to be the scapegoat.

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that is not what the government things and the FSA is on its way

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out, with the Bank of England seizing the control. There will be

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a policy committee to monitor the general state of the economy, an

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authority to keep an eye on banks and big business, and a financial

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conduct authority to supervise the markets. That is a lot of power for

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one person, the new governor of the Bank of England, which worries the

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Treasury Select Committee. We need to make sure that this new quango,

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and in a sense that is what it is, a very powerful and enhanced Bank

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of England, is made fully accountable to Parliament and

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forced to explain to the public exactly why it is taking the

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decisions it has the power to take. This is a body that will decide

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whether you can have alone and a mortgage, and make recommendations

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about a raft of other powers as well. But perhaps most importantly,

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will these changes actually prevent another financial meltdown? I am

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worried we have new committees now been created where we could have

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quite a number of conflicts of interest and arguments, which

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themselves could lead to bad decision making. In a time of

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economic stress, is it right to turn the whole system upside down?

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I would suggest it is not the right thing because what we have now is a

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more complex system. The present Bill is not clear that in a crisis,

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there is someone in charge. government insists the new system

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will work but the last lot said that, too. If the FSA was the

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watchdog that did not bark, the replacement will have to prove that

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its teeth a sharp enough to do the job this time.

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And we are joined now by now the editor of City AM, Allister Heath.

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And Sir Howard Davies is still with us. Let me cut straight to the

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chase. I was quite amazed that the Governor said there was no boom

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before bust. We covered that he read it together. I remember a huge

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boom in house prices, household debt, corporate debt and on the

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stock market! What it did the Governor Miss? There was also a

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massive increase in the amount of money in the economy, a massive

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increase in credit and quite a few economists in America and London

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warning that there was a bubble and that things were out of control,

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that the cost of money had fallen, partly because of the behaviour of

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central banks and Federal Reserves, and these big economic forces

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caused by imbalances between East and West. Quite a few people were

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warning that there was a ridiculously cheap and large amount

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of liquidity in the system and that this would push it up at that price

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is like house prices, and I think the Bank of England did not do

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enough at the time and did not listen to people saying that

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interest rates had to go up to stop this. Yes, it would have throttled

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economic growth but it would have been better to have had a sharp

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slowdown in 2005 rather than go to the catastrophe that we went to, so

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I do not believe the Bank of England had insufficient tools to

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abate the bubble. That is why people do not buy that, with

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hindsight, we knew. The politicians and the regulators almost had a

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common interest in not doing anything about it because things

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seemed to be going too well, but people like Alistair and others

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have warned the Governor of the Bank of England that simply

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monitoring the CPI, simply monitoring inflation, price

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inflation, ignore the fact that there were these huge imbalances

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and Broomes going on. -- blues. think Mervyn King is not denying

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that. He is not denying there were credit Bubbles. And asset Bubbles.

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He is saying that overall, there was no great economic boom.

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Therefore what he thing is that interest rates are not necessarily

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the most appropriate weapon to deal with the bubble in credit that we

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had -- what he is saying. The bank is now getting the ability to

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manipulate other controls, potentially things like the amount

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of deposit you have to put down to get a mortgage. Those are the sorts

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of things you need to deal with the circumstances that we had in the

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early years of this century, and on that I agree with him. But the bank

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had two major tours as I see it. It controlled interest rates,

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independently, and it had leave is to control the money supply.

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Absolutely. -- it had a lever. Interest rate is the key thing.

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They could have warned much more openly. To me, this crisis was

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quite similar to a previous bubble. If you look back through history,

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you see dozens of examples all round the world, central bank

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making the mistake. I don't think he needed new tools to deal with

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that. Ultimately he just needed to put up the price of money. Suddenly

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people stop taking mortgages and loans and had he done that, HBOS

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would not have lent as much to property, Northern Rock would not

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have expanded as much. I don't think they are taking enough of the

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responsibility for the bubble. the time it seemed there was almost

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a Faustian pact between the politicians and the financial

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system, that the banks and people in the City did not want to listen

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to people like you because they were getting rich on cheap money.

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The government from Gordon Brown down, he didn't want to listen

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because all the money they were making was filling his coffers with

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tax revenues, which he loved to spend. That is completely true and

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Mervyn King may be good point that nobody was taking him into

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Parliament and asking him about interest rates and that is a fair

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point. Looking just at the Bank of England is not quite fair. You have

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to look at the whole climate. But I think you do have to consider

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whether, if you give the Bank a different kind of mandate, which it

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is now getting, with a more explicit responsibility for

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financial stability, that at least gives it a better excuse for

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increasing interest rates... People will say, why are you increase in

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interest rates when inflation is 2%? At the time they would have

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found it difficult to explain that. If they have got an explicit

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financial stability remit, they can say, that is our remit and that is

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why. But at the moment inflation is much higher than the remit, and

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they have found a justification for that, saying they have to do that

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to gain stability, so I think they could have done the same under the

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old remit. I think they could still have acted. From what we saw last

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night and from the changes we know it are happening to the bank's

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remit, as the Bank of England learned its lesson? Are we at risk

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of a repeat? We know history does not repeat itself exactly, but

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could something similar happened again? I think they have learned

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some lessons. I think everybody has, but I fear they have not learned

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all have the right lessons. We still have a bank that will target

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the consumer price index and global central banks of still making a lot

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of mistake, there is still a huge amount of manipulation of Monday to

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constantly tried to boost economic growth, even when there is far too

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much leverage in the system -- manipulation of money and credit.

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There is also the incentive to throttle the system too much.

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Because it is demanding too much, that they have to have a lot in the

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bank? Yes, you can stop a bubble by killing the economy and having

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permanent stagnation. That is also a mistake. I think the next mistake

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will be quite a different one! is something to look forward to!

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is right to point to the fact that the bank has itself published

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recently a chart showing that the ratio of credit to GDP, which was

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way above its long-term average, of total credit, way above the average,

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is now below its long-term average. In the normal way, you would say

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that requires some easing of pressures on the banks, maybe some

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reductions in the amount of capital that they have to contain because

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you could be throttling the economy too much. It is typical. We are

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forcing these high credit ratios in the banks because we are fighting

:16:06.:16:16.
:16:16.:16:19.

A Cook question about Mr King's replacement. Should it be a banker

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foreign economist? I think it should be a banker. I think a pure

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commercial banker would not be good. The person needs to understand the

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markets. Who are you backing? quite like Lord Greene who used to

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run HSBC. A very prudent banker who is now in politics. Didn't he by

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all that sub-prime get in America? He did make mistakes. Harry

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:16:59.:17:00.

Redknapp, I think. Who is he? free! Which has School of Economics

:17:00.:17:08.

is he from? He doesn't believe in tax! And if not him? I am not going

:17:08.:17:16.

to offer another name. Thank you very much.

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Now, I like today's quiz. Which Minister is a fashion icon in

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Islamabad of all places? Is it Jeremy Hunt, Danny Alexander, Ken

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Clarke or Theresa May? At the end of the show, we will ask our

:17:35.:17:40.

sartorial expert for the answer. The French go to the polls this

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weekend to elect a president. It is the second round. They have

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narrowed it down to two candidates from 10. Last night, the candidates,

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Mr Sarkozy on the right of centre and Francois Holland, the Socialist,

:17:57.:18:01.

conducted a heated debate on French television. But was watched in

:18:01.:18:07.

France alone by over 20 million people. They take their politics

:18:07.:18:16.

seriously. Here is a clip. TRANSLATION: You criticise me by

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saying that you were late in solving the euro crisis. You think

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it was easy to negotiate with 27 members? It wasn't easy. We also

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saved the euro, and that demanded a considerable amount of work. We did

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it mainly thanks to France and Germany. As for the European

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Central Bank, they have done a good job. I am not sure, Francois

:18:41.:18:51.
:18:51.:18:51.

Holland, but she would have done any better.

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TRANSLATION: Europe is not out of the crisis. Austerity may strike

:18:59.:19:03.

again. This is where the presidential elections are so

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important. We need a president who can make Europe change, a President

:19:09.:19:16.

who can also make Germany move. But we need to borrow some money to

:19:16.:19:23.

kick-start growth. You might have gone for that type of policy, but

:19:23.:19:28.

Angela Merkel stopped you. He that was the debate last night,

:19:28.:19:34.

several hours of free-flowing debate. I don't know why there were

:19:34.:19:40.

two Ankers, because almost one wasn't needed. But I guess you can

:19:40.:19:44.

have that kind of discussion when there are only two people vying for

:19:44.:19:49.

the job. You couldn't do it with more than two. Let's see what it's

:19:49.:19:53.

like the morning after the night before. Christian Frasier is in

:19:53.:20:00.

means. Now that people have had time to absorb, is there a

:20:00.:20:04.

consensus? I know the left and right will have their views, but is

:20:04.:20:08.

there a consensus among independent minded people have who won last

:20:08.:20:16.

night? The people I have spoken to today focused very much on Francois

:20:16.:20:25.

Homs, he is six points ahead in the polls. He was clear right from the

:20:25.:20:33.

start on his first answer which topics he wanted to focus on. The

:20:33.:20:36.

Socialists have had some big disappointments, but they seemed to

:20:36.:20:44.

have learned their lessons in 2007. Francois Holland's partner was

:20:44.:20:50.

roughed up in those elections. He reacted quite differently last

:20:50.:20:57.

night. It was Mr Sarkozy who was on the back foot a lot of the time. He

:20:57.:21:03.

looked quite ruffled. So I think independent-minded analysts will

:21:03.:21:07.

probably think that if it was an honourable draw, that was good news

:21:07.:21:14.

for Mr Holland. If that was the view, then that was the last throw

:21:14.:21:19.

of the dice for Mr Sarkozy. We would have to say that if that is

:21:19.:21:29.
:21:29.:21:37.

the consensus, then France Warhol This is the front page which shows

:21:37.:21:47.

the two main debating here. This is really setting the mood. It is

:21:47.:21:52.

never your fault is it, Mr President? And Mr Sarkozy saying, I

:21:52.:22:00.

am not your pupil. I rather brisk riposte from the President. But if

:22:00.:22:05.

this is a referendum on the style of Mr Sarkozy's politics, that

:22:05.:22:12.

underlines it. You might say people won't react well. I have picked out

:22:12.:22:19.

another paper, and we are here because Mariela Pen finished top of

:22:19.:22:25.

the pile in the first round of the vote. I have looked in one of the

:22:25.:22:30.

regional papers, and it has a map here of France and where the votes

:22:30.:22:35.

are concentrated. This is where they did particularly well, and

:22:35.:22:42.

down in the Deep South, where immigration is an issue, and also

:22:42.:22:45.

appear in the top where they are closer to Brussels. You can make

:22:45.:22:50.

what you will have that. But it is here in this region that they have

:22:50.:22:55.

done particularly well, and I have been be speaking to people about

:22:55.:22:57.

whether they might switch their vote to Nicolas Sarkozy in the

:22:57.:23:07.
:23:07.:23:10.

second round. But Mary in a pen has a long term objective here to build

:23:10.:23:14.

a far-right party. It doesn't benefit her to throw a lifeline at

:23:14.:23:19.

this stage in the process. She said at the rally I attended at the

:23:19.:23:22.

other day that she would leave it to voters to vote with their

:23:22.:23:29.

conscience, but she would be casting a blank ballot on Sunday.

:23:29.:23:34.

Fascinating stuff. Thank you for joining us, Christian. Pitt look

:23:34.:23:44.

like after the first round that the Le Pen that position would be that

:23:44.:23:48.

she would be hoping she would replace Mr Sarkozy's party on the

:23:48.:23:52.

right end be the main opposition to the Socialists. They are not and

:23:52.:23:57.

National Party, they are concentrated on the North East and

:23:57.:24:01.

the South. Let's see what the implications of this election will

:24:01.:24:06.

be. I am joined by a Emma Reynolds and the Conservative MEP Daniel

:24:06.:24:14.

Hannan. Emma, are you looking forward to a Francois Hollande

:24:14.:24:21.

victory? Very much so. I think the crisis in Europe has been prolonged

:24:21.:24:24.

and deepened by the right-wing government who are focusing on

:24:24.:24:32.

austerity alone. Mr Holland was very robust last night and showed

:24:32.:24:37.

he had a plan to reduce the deficit but also get the economy growing.

:24:37.:24:41.

Daniel Hannan, I thought this would be a difficult choice the year,

:24:41.:24:49.

because both Mr Sarkozy and Mr Holland, they are not supporters of

:24:49.:24:53.

the market economy of the liberal Anglo-Saxon models, so who would

:24:53.:25:01.

you support? I don't get their vote, Andrew. From a British point of

:25:02.:25:05.

view, it doesn't make a lot of difference. We have to candidates

:25:05.:25:09.

who want to defeat the markets and to see free enterprise has the

:25:09.:25:13.

problem rather than the solution and want to give more power to

:25:13.:25:23.
:25:23.:25:26.

Brussels. From that perspective, it doesn't make much difference. The

:25:26.:25:30.

idea that France is suffering from too much austerity, this is a

:25:30.:25:36.

country where the state takes 56% of GDP. This is a state where there

:25:36.:25:44.

hasn't been a balanced budget since 1974. For Francois Homs to come

:25:44.:25:48.

along and say that he has a plan for growth, this is wonderful. The

:25:48.:25:52.

truth is we are in danger of accelerated all of the policies

:25:52.:25:56.

that brought Europe into this mess in the first place, spending more,

:25:56.:26:02.

taxing more, borrowing more. Reynolds, I guess the. He is making

:26:02.:26:05.

is that if the state was the solution, given the size of the

:26:05.:26:10.

state in France, much bigger than Britain, France would be the most

:26:10.:26:16.

successful country in Europe already. Unemployment is at 10% in

:26:16.:26:20.

France, and the idea that if the Government gets out of the way in

:26:20.:26:26.

much the same way as the Government here is arguing, somehow the market

:26:26.:26:32.

will miraculously solved the problems. No one is arguing that.

:26:32.:26:39.

The state spends 56% of the GDP in France. It is the highest in Europe,

:26:39.:26:44.

and tax is the highest as a percentage of GDP in Europe. So

:26:44.:26:50.

what is it about the state that has resulted in 10% unemployment?

:26:50.:26:54.

state doesn't need to reduces expenditure, and Francois Honda is

:26:54.:27:01.

saying that. He is saying that 19 billion needs to be taken in tax

:27:01.:27:06.

rises or spending cuts. But the issue here is how you tackle

:27:06.:27:11.

unemployment. The global financial crisis in 2008 shows what happens

:27:11.:27:16.

if you let the market had its place. That is what Daniel Hannan would

:27:16.:27:22.

like to see. Market failure has produced a crisis in the eurozone

:27:22.:27:27.

and in our country. So I don't think that prescription will get us

:27:27.:27:32.

anywhere. And confused by what you say. It is by letting the market

:27:32.:27:37.

rip that has created the crisis in the eurozone? Almost every European

:27:38.:27:42.

economy in the heart of the eurozone, the state accounts for

:27:42.:27:51.

50% of its GDP. When did the market forces rip? I am saying that a

:27:51.:27:56.

banking crisis of excessive risk sparked the crisis. They need to be

:27:56.:27:59.

a reduction of the size of the state in France, I agree with that.

:27:59.:28:05.

But look at what happened in Spain. The crisis in Spain has not been

:28:05.:28:09.

caused by overspending of the state. It has been caused by private

:28:09.:28:14.

sector debt. So I don't think you can just to reduce this to saying

:28:14.:28:17.

that the eurozone crisis has been caused by public debt alone. I

:28:17.:28:25.

don't think that is true. Daniel Hannan, if the Socialists win, who

:28:25.:28:31.

get among them first? Angela Merkel the bond markets? There will be a

:28:31.:28:36.

queue to mug him. Can I come back to the point that Emma was just

:28:36.:28:40.

making that this is a market failure because the banks were

:28:40.:28:44.

unregulated. I used to be in journalism before I got elected,

:28:44.:28:47.

and I can recognise when a story has passed the point of correction,

:28:47.:28:52.

but I want to put on the record for the idea that the financial markets

:28:52.:28:56.

are completely unregulated is ludicrous. It is difficult to think

:28:56.:29:00.

of a more regulated section in the entire economy apart from maybe

:29:00.:29:05.

media. What we have is that governments and businesses are all

:29:05.:29:09.

massively in debt. During the boom years, they spend money they didn't

:29:09.:29:13.

have. There is now a correction, and the solution proposed to

:29:13.:29:18.

Brussels is more of the medicine that second the patient in the

:29:18.:29:24.

first place. They want to treat a debt crisis with more debt. Let me

:29:24.:29:29.

bring Howard Davies in. Let's assume - we don't know for sure,

:29:29.:29:32.

but stranger things have happened - let's assume the Socialists have

:29:33.:29:38.

one. They are pledging 60,000 more teachers, cutting the retirement

:29:38.:29:43.

age back to 60, taking Angela Merkel head on over the fiscal pact.

:29:43.:29:48.

How does that play? I think I would distinguish between his domestic

:29:48.:29:52.

ambitions and what he is saying about what needs to be done in the

:29:52.:29:56.

eurozone. On the domestic side, he will have to change his mind. He

:29:56.:30:01.

won't be able to do these things. I don't believe the markets will

:30:01.:30:05.

prevent him from expanding the French budget deficit. But I do

:30:05.:30:09.

think that he has a point about the way in which to the eurozone crisis

:30:09.:30:15.

is currently being handled. And an exclusive focus on fiscal austerity

:30:15.:30:19.

and the southern European countries, when in some cases like Spain's

:30:19.:30:23.

they didn't actually have a major fiscal crisis before, this is a

:30:23.:30:28.

fiscal crisis in the housing market, etc. The exclusive focus on that is

:30:28.:30:32.

not likely to solve this problem. And so I think he will be pressing

:30:32.:30:36.

for a bigger firewall for Europe, and a bigger collectively

:30:36.:30:40.

guaranteed borrowing arrangement, which the Germans would like. But I

:30:40.:30:47.

think they will be forced to do it. He may be pushing on an open door?

:30:47.:30:51.

We have lost Daniel Hannan. The line had to be moved to someone

:30:51.:30:56.

else. We still have and a Reynolds. Emma, I want to ask you a final

:30:56.:31:01.

question. Isn't there a danger of the British Labour Party are lining

:31:01.:31:07.

itself too closely with Mr Holland and the French Socialists? If

:31:07.:31:12.

within six weeks or even six months he is in the middle of all has

:31:12.:31:15.

caused a major economic crisis in France, you will be tainted by

:31:15.:31:25.
:31:25.:31:26.

We don't support every specific policy, especially some domestic

:31:26.:31:35.

policies. We do not support a 75% tax rate. Why not? We advocate

:31:35.:31:40.

retaining a 50% tax rate, you know that well enough. What is wrong

:31:40.:31:45.

with tax and people who make over �1 million submitted a percent? --

:31:45.:31:55.

taxing people. Who earn over �1 million, 75%? It might lead to a

:31:55.:32:01.

reduction in tax revenue but let me go back to Europe. A victory in

:32:01.:32:05.

France for Hollande would change the narrative in Europe, in a good

:32:05.:32:11.

way, in that it would take away the exclusive focus on austerity and

:32:11.:32:16.

yes, we do need to cut the deficit in some countries, but it is a

:32:16.:32:20.

sequencing issue. You need to get growth going first before you can

:32:20.:32:26.

meaningfully cut the deficit and the failure to do that in the UK...

:32:26.:32:31.

We do not want to dwell on British politics too much. Fair enough.

:32:31.:32:35.

it will be a fascinating election result with consequences for all of

:32:35.:32:41.

Europe, including the UK, and we are grateful for you for joining us.

:32:41.:32:47.

The engine macro. It is not the only election going on! -- thank

:32:47.:32:54.

you. The mother of democracies is also

:32:54.:33:00.

going to the polls this weekend and our correspondent is in Athens. Is

:33:00.:33:04.

this election really going to be about punishing the main parties in

:33:04.:33:09.

the current caretaker government and rejecting austerity?

:33:09.:33:14.

certainly looks that way, if the opinion polls are anything to go by.

:33:14.:33:20.

The two parties in coalition, the centre right and the Socialist

:33:20.:33:25.

Party, are at an all-time low in the opinion polls. In the last

:33:25.:33:29.

election in 2009, they got 80% of the vote together and this time

:33:29.:33:34.

they are struggling to get 40%. There is immense anger against the

:33:34.:33:39.

financial crisis, which has brought this country to its knees. So what

:33:39.:33:44.

voters are saying, and what we are likely to see on Sunday, is a

:33:44.:33:50.

punishing of those two parties. The smaller, left-wing, anti-austerity

:33:50.:33:56.

parties are gaining ground. For the first time in four decades in

:33:56.:34:00.

Greece, it looks like voters will move away from the traditional

:34:00.:34:05.

dominance of these two towards smaller parties, which will mean a

:34:05.:34:09.

fragmentation of the vote. It could make it hard to fault a strong and

:34:09.:34:15.

stable government. Are you saying if there is support for some of the

:34:15.:34:20.

left wing groups, that they would be able to form a government or is

:34:20.:34:23.

that still unlikely without the support of one of the larger

:34:23.:34:31.

parties? It is still unlikely because the leftist parties a very

:34:31.:34:35.

divided in themselves. They range from the communist, old Trotskyist

:34:36.:34:40.

parties that want to leave the European Union altogether, to a

:34:40.:34:44.

centre-left New a party that wants to tweak austerity measures, and it

:34:44.:34:48.

is very unlikely that they will club together to form a cohesive

:34:48.:34:53.

opposition to the mainstream. What is more likely is that the two big

:34:53.:34:58.

parties will try to form some kind of shaky coalition after Sunday's

:34:58.:35:06.

election and possibly have to bring coalition could be so shaky that it

:35:06.:35:10.

may not even survive to the end of the year, there may have to be

:35:10.:35:14.

another election, which again would bring in debility to Greece.

:35:14.:35:20.

Remember, Greece remains the epicentre of the financial crisis

:35:20.:35:27.

set in debility here means it will go beyond Greece. -- so it

:35:27.:35:32.

instability. You are going to Greece. We did not get a sense of

:35:32.:35:36.

the feeling on the streets. We have seen the images of people

:35:36.:35:43.

protesting against austerity. If Francois Hollande comes in in

:35:43.:35:46.

France and the left-wing government comes in, do you think there will

:35:46.:35:51.

be a challenge to the austerity measures of Germany and Brussels?

:35:51.:35:57.

Yes, Hollande wants to change the remit of the European Central Bank

:35:57.:36:01.

to make it more like the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to

:36:01.:36:07.

control inflation but also promote employment, which is not the remit

:36:07.:36:12.

of the ECB. I think overall there will be a challenge to the line

:36:12.:36:18.

that the Germans have been on effectively. But whether that will

:36:18.:36:28.
:36:28.:36:28.

be soon enough to help! It is a moot point. We heard from Mark that

:36:28.:36:34.

it looks incredibly shaky, so how optimistic are you that there will

:36:34.:36:39.

be as they bought government in the next few months? I am not very

:36:39.:36:45.

optimistic. -- be a stable government. I think that the

:36:45.:36:50.

appetite in Brussels and Berlin for yet another bail-out package, or

:36:50.:36:55.

revising the terms of the existing one, is very, very low. They have

:36:55.:36:59.

repeatedly said that Greece is a one-off, it is not a precedent for

:36:59.:37:04.

anywhere else, so I think it is very delicate. Elections are one

:37:04.:37:09.

thing in Greece, controlling the street is another. We have seen

:37:09.:37:13.

that the parliament is sometimes besieged by demonstrators. Looking

:37:13.:37:19.

back, I have to say that Papandreou's idea of a referendum

:37:19.:37:23.

and Cliff support for what he was doing was not stupid. -- clear

:37:23.:37:28.

support. He was bounced off that by Angela Merkel and Sarkozy because

:37:28.:37:31.

they feared it would be too disruptive, but when you have a

:37:31.:37:35.

very broken political system, with lots of tiny parties and splinter

:37:35.:37:40.

groups, and you also have a lot of people ready to go to the street, a

:37:40.:37:46.

referendum, if he hadn't got 55%, would have given him a mandate. I

:37:46.:37:53.

don't think it was a stupid idea. And also the idea that the far

:37:53.:38:00.

Right might -- the far Right might do well. They are talking about

:38:00.:38:09.

putting a land mine on the border! When you talk to people in France

:38:09.:38:12.

and Greece, one of the things they are concerned about is the politics

:38:12.:38:17.

of this. If it breaks up, who will benefit? It will not be just

:38:17.:38:22.

another government of nice chaps from a slightly different spectrum.

:38:22.:38:28.

The people who are benefiting, the far right, the far-left, Sinn Fein,

:38:28.:38:35.

in Finland, Ireland... In France. A bunch of guys who marched around in

:38:35.:38:40.

Hungary with their arms up in a salute. These are some nasty

:38:40.:38:44.

renewals or forces that we hoped would disappear and it is a very

:38:44.:38:52.

difficult situation -- off forces. Election results will be coming in

:38:52.:38:56.

from Paris and Athens and if you are watching the Daily Politics, I

:38:56.:39:01.

suspect you are into that, so enjoy Sunday night. We will still be

:39:01.:39:06.

cogitating over the result of our own elections! Now, unless you've

:39:06.:39:09.

accidentally turned over from the Tellytubbies, most of you guys

:39:09.:39:11.

should be performing your democratic duty and voting in a

:39:11.:39:15.

whole host of different elections up and down the country. And our Jo

:39:15.:39:22.

Voting is taking place across England, Wales and Scotland today.

:39:22.:39:26.

More than 4,700 seats are up for grabs on 128 English councils, most

:39:26.:39:30.

of which were last contested in 2008. Every seat on Scotland's 32

:39:30.:39:35.

unitary authorities is being contested. And the make-up of 21

:39:35.:39:39.

unitary authorities in Wales will also be decided. Mayoral elections

:39:39.:39:43.

take place in London, Liverpool and Salford. While, in ten other

:39:43.:39:47.

English cities, referendums take place on whether they want mayors.

:39:47.:39:51.

Adam will be staying up all night to watch the results. Here's his

:39:51.:40:01.
:40:01.:40:04.

It is Thursday, 10pm. The polls have closed across Scotland,

:40:04.:40:10.

England and Wales and counting is under way in around half of the 181

:40:10.:40:13.

local authorities have been contests this year. The election

:40:13.:40:19.

programme will be starting soon! By 2am on Friday, we should be able to

:40:19.:40:23.

calculate what the party's share of the vote would have been if this

:40:23.:40:26.

was the national election. How do my colleagues cope with the all-

:40:26.:40:31.

nighters? I do not stay up the local elections! I stay up the

:40:31.:40:35.

general elections, but a local elections, you wake up in the

:40:35.:40:39.

morning and listen to the gloating and excuses. Two-thirds of the

:40:39.:40:43.

results will be in by 6 o'clock in the morning, and 11 cities are

:40:43.:40:48.

holding referendums on whether to have an elected mayor. We make also

:40:48.:40:54.

know who has been elected mayor of Liverpool -- we may also know. As I

:40:54.:40:59.

tucked into my super food sandwich on Friday lunchtime, there will be

:40:59.:41:04.

a flurry of excitement. Doncaster will be counting votes on whether

:41:04.:41:08.

to abolish their elected mayor. Later Birmingham will be counting

:41:08.:41:12.

its vote on having one, and we may know who will get the job in

:41:12.:41:17.

Salford. 5:00pm Friday, I will be cracking open the Irn-Bru as we

:41:17.:41:22.

find out which party is in control of Glasgow City Council. My

:41:22.:41:24.

hometown and one of the most symbolic contests in the whole

:41:25.:41:30.

country. Then it is time for a nap, because cutting for the Assembly

:41:30.:41:35.

and mayor of London takes quite a while -- because counting. The

:41:35.:41:39.

results will be counted by the returning officer. Why the long

:41:39.:41:44.

wait? It is to be elections in one, it is the most complicated one in

:41:44.:41:49.

the UK, arguably the most complex in Europe. 5.8 million people, each

:41:49.:41:54.

of them entitled to three ballot paper of. If you go to the chip

:41:54.:42:00.

shop, make it quick. Although there is certainly bound to be a result

:42:00.:42:06.

by 11pm... We hope. After, why not relax with a weekend of post-

:42:06.:42:10.

election punditry, the best of which will be on BBC One at midday

:42:10.:42:17.

on Sunday Politics. Welcome to the Sunday Politics! Where did that

:42:17.:42:25.

come from? We didn't even practice that! With us is our political

:42:25.:42:29.

correspondent. Not the one and only! She is! Give us some facts

:42:29.:42:34.

and figures. This is not a general election but it is still very

:42:34.:42:40.

important to all of the parties two years into this Parliament. 30

:42:40.:42:43.

million people are registered to vote in these elections, including

:42:43.:42:49.

6 million in London, four million in Scotland, two point three in

:42:49.:42:53.

Wales. 5,000 council seats are up for grabs and most of these were

:42:53.:42:58.

last contested four years ago. Nearly 15,000 candidates have been

:42:58.:43:05.

delivering leaflets. Not all of the seats in England are up for grabs

:43:05.:43:11.

in a local priorities. Anglesey is the exception in Wales. There are

:43:11.:43:16.

elections will be delayed for a year. All 32 councils in Scotland.

:43:16.:43:22.

More than half-a-million postal votes in Scotland. A lot of people

:43:22.:43:27.

have already cast them. The highest number of candidates in any ward is

:43:27.:43:31.

in Glasgow in going, where there will be 14 candidates to choose

:43:31.:43:36.

from, and it is the only statutory elections in the UK with the rules

:43:36.:43:40.

have been changed so that if you are still in the queue at 10pm, in

:43:40.:43:45.

Scotland, you will still get the chance to vote. That was terrible

:43:45.:43:49.

when they were turned away before! What about the different voting

:43:49.:43:56.

systems? England and Wales, first- past-the-post. The Scotland local

:43:56.:44:00.

government elections are single transferable vote. In London, it

:44:00.:44:06.

gets interesting. I have the voting papers here. You have first-past-

:44:06.:44:12.

the-post for your local election, it is a supplementary vote system

:44:12.:44:16.

for the London mayor, First Choice and second choice, and a

:44:16.:44:20.

constituency member to choose for the London Assembly, which is

:44:20.:44:25.

first-past-the-post, and finally, your London member is the

:44:25.:44:28.

additional member system, which is the closed list of proportional

:44:28.:44:33.

representation, so a lot to be thinking about. That is why the

:44:33.:44:39.

vote takes so long to count. I am not surprised! Thank you very much.

:44:39.:44:47.

Have you voted yet? No. Me neither. They do not make it easy. Even if

:44:47.:44:51.

you haven't got around to doing it yet, you can still fill your postal

:44:51.:44:58.

vote out and take it to any station. Great. Thank you.

:44:58.:45:02.

If you are going out to vote, you will want to know what the

:45:02.:45:05.

weather's doing. So don't say we don't make and effort on the Daily

:45:05.:45:09.

Politics. We have bought in a man who knows. I've always wanted to

:45:09.:45:19.
:45:19.:45:22.

say this: Now the weather with John Shades of grey, weather Wise. A

:45:23.:45:28.

different story for Scotland. If you are voting out there, there is

:45:28.:45:38.
:45:38.:45:39.

sunshine. It will almost feel like England and Wales are universally

:45:39.:45:46.

glum. Nothing relentless in terms of rain, but it will be dampened

:45:46.:45:56.
:45:56.:45:57.

drizzly. And temperatures are woefully low for the time of year.

:45:57.:46:01.

For the big clash in London, ten Celsius as the best I can offer you.

:46:01.:46:09.

What about the big contenders? For David Cameron's consistency, just

:46:09.:46:15.

nine. Similar for Clegg and Miliband. For Alex Salmond in

:46:15.:46:24.

Who wouldn't have thought of Glasgow would be the warmest city

:46:24.:46:29.

in Britain? That is my kind of forecast, because you didn't tell

:46:29.:46:36.

us whether to wrap up would take an umbrella. Or any other statements

:46:36.:46:42.

of the obvious! Any more information you need,

:46:42.:46:44.

Andrew? How it is actually quite varied

:46:44.:46:53.

weather, isn't it? Rain being more common than not. And it is cold and

:46:53.:46:58.

damp, and it will stay that way. When will it get better?

:46:58.:47:04.

No sign of it. This weekend will be even colder.

:47:04.:47:12.

So, wrap up warm and get your coat out! You will be the first to know.

:47:12.:47:17.

If thank you very much. Now, we all assume that when it rains, people

:47:17.:47:25.

get put off going to the polls, and that may be true. Or is it? Now to

:47:25.:47:29.

our myth Buster, Giles Dilnot. You think the question of whether

:47:29.:47:33.

the weather affects our behaviour is something of a no-brainer, and

:47:33.:47:37.

when it is raining, do you see people sitting outside in the Park

:47:37.:47:45.

enjoying the outdoors? When the sun is out, everybody is. Ergo, bad

:47:45.:47:55.
:47:55.:47:55.

weather is bad for voter turnout? Know. -- no. If you look at the

:47:55.:48:00.

post-war period, you don't see a correlation. In 1987 when New

:48:00.:48:04.

Labour first came to power, it was a gloriously sunny day, but the

:48:04.:48:08.

turnout that election was the lowest on record for the post war

:48:08.:48:15.

period. Compare that with February 1974, which will obviously be a bad

:48:15.:48:21.

day, being February, snow in places, turnout was much higher at 79%, one

:48:21.:48:27.

of the highest turnouts on record. And increasing numbers of postal

:48:27.:48:31.

votes also affect that particular myth. So how about this one? We

:48:32.:48:37.

don't like a tidal wave of negative campaigning. That is only partly

:48:37.:48:44.

true. Take a look at this. A one serial hypocrite exposed. Now

:48:44.:48:50.

another has emerged. Rick Santorum, corporate lobbyist and a record of

:48:50.:48:56.

betrayal. Mitt Romney will say anything to win, anything. And just

:48:56.:49:05.

like John Kerry: He speaks French, too. Bonjour. Je m'appelle Mitt

:49:05.:49:11.

Romney. There is a reason why our American

:49:11.:49:13.

cousins spend millions on campaigning - we might not like it,

:49:13.:49:19.

but we do absorb it. It works. And the final myth is that people in

:49:19.:49:21.

this country we don't really understand the voting systems

:49:21.:49:26.

available. There is a problem this busting that. It is not a myth. It

:49:26.:49:31.

is true. And if you don't understand the voting systems

:49:31.:49:35.

available, you are not alone, and explanations can be found on the

:49:35.:49:38.

Electoral Commission website and the BBC's website, which saves me

:49:38.:49:44.

from having to explain them. I could, I just don't want to.

:49:44.:49:51.

Howdahs AV work again? Great stuff, Giles. Andrew Hawkins

:49:51.:49:57.

is here with us. Are you surprised that the weather doesn't affect the

:49:57.:50:05.

turn out? The evidence is conflicting. It certainly is a myth

:50:06.:50:10.

that it expects -- affects things to the extent that no politicians

:50:10.:50:15.

fear it does. Labour in particular fear it. The that is the perceived

:50:15.:50:20.

wisdom. The academic evidence, such as it can be relied on, suggest

:50:20.:50:25.

that for every 1% Celsius increase in temperature, we expect turnout

:50:25.:50:31.

to increase by 1%. The academic literature doesn't tell you which

:50:31.:50:37.

party that favours. Interesting. And what about the business of

:50:37.:50:40.

negative campaigning, the great and the good are always down on

:50:40.:50:47.

negative campaigning, but some people quite like it. I think it in

:50:47.:50:50.

the States it is one of those things where because everybody does

:50:50.:50:56.

it, everybody does it. Whether it affects the outcome, I don't know.

:50:56.:51:01.

It seemed to affect John Kerry in 2004. Possibly, but you think he

:51:01.:51:10.

was really going to beat George W them? It was narrow. He can speak

:51:10.:51:14.

French. That seems to be the black market if you are from America.

:51:14.:51:21.

That is why Sarkozy went win. is your polling tell you about

:51:21.:51:23.

negative campaigning? The public will always say that they think

:51:23.:51:28.

there is too much negative campaigning. But is it really news

:51:28.:51:33.

to us that some politicians don't actually like each other very much?

:51:33.:51:37.

We are a nation addicted to reading about conflict. That is what sells

:51:37.:51:45.

newspapers. Is it perhaps something about the human psyche you that we

:51:45.:51:49.

like to watch gladiatorial contests? And actually negative

:51:49.:51:53.

campaigning can get people at least talking about the contestants. It

:51:54.:51:57.

can raise interest in what is going on, even if not in a way that

:51:57.:52:05.

people always like. Let's finish up on the voting systems. Have we got

:52:05.:52:09.

ourselves into a bit of a mess in this country with the these

:52:09.:52:14.

incredibly complicated voting system? I think we are. We are

:52:14.:52:18.

experimenting in different areas, but that does leave people a bit

:52:18.:52:23.

confused, because in London, it is partly first past the post with an

:52:23.:52:29.

extrovert, and then some of it is a regional list. I think people are

:52:29.:52:35.

pretty confused. If professional commentators are confused, it is

:52:35.:52:38.

pretty fair to bet that the average voter who has more important things

:52:38.:52:44.

to think about is confused? I agree entirely. It is the triumph of the

:52:44.:52:48.

logical neatness of having perhaps a system that produces a fairer

:52:48.:52:52.

result compared to the other end of the spectrum to something that is

:52:52.:52:58.

easy to understand. Going back to the last London mayoral election,

:52:58.:53:03.

the first choice, people understood. There were around 40,000 spoiled

:53:03.:53:09.

papers. When it came to the second choice, that number have rejected

:53:09.:53:14.

ballot papers went up tenfold, 400,000. It is extraordinary.

:53:14.:53:21.

you for coming in and talking to us. If I am glad I am not coming in in

:53:21.:53:25.

counting the votes tonight! From cricket tours of apartheid that

:53:26.:53:30.

Africa to the Moscow Olympics, politics and sport often clash.

:53:30.:53:33.

There are now new concerns over the euro 2012 football tournament, with

:53:34.:53:38.

European leaders including our own sports Minister Hugh Robinson

:53:38.:53:43.

threatening to boycott the tournament in Poland and Ukraine.

:53:43.:53:53.
:53:53.:53:54.

The problem is the human rights of the Leader of the Opposition in

:53:54.:53:58.

Ukraine. Many politicians have described her imprisonment as a

:53:58.:54:01.

politically motivated act. Her daughter is heading the campaign

:54:01.:54:06.

for her release. We just want to see the Government of Ukraine and

:54:06.:54:10.

deciding that they will change their ways, solve the political

:54:10.:54:14.

crisis, release political prisoners, and it is all in their power to do

:54:14.:54:22.

so. There is no need to boycott them. From their discrediting

:54:22.:54:27.

something that could have become a democracy in Ukraine. With us now

:54:27.:54:31.

is the football commentator Garth Crooks. You went to meet officials

:54:31.:54:38.

in Ukraine some time ago. What did you say? We said that it was

:54:38.:54:41.

important that the football authorities going to Ukraine looked

:54:41.:54:45.

at their human rights abuses very seriously. The footballing world

:54:45.:54:49.

and the rest of Europe will be looking at them closely during the

:54:49.:54:52.

course of the European Championships. They didn't take us

:54:52.:54:55.

very seriously then, and they are not now. Do you think that you

:54:56.:55:02.

Robertson should boycott the tournament. I was very surprised

:55:02.:55:06.

when he made the announcement, because nobody saw it coming.

:55:06.:55:10.

was no preparation? No one in football seems to recognise that he

:55:10.:55:14.

was going to take this stand, but take it he has, and it has drawn a

:55:14.:55:18.

lot of attention. The issue is it won't make any difference

:55:18.:55:22.

whatsoever to the football authorities. It went? They have

:55:22.:55:26.

said they had distance themselves from it. So it will not achieve

:55:26.:55:35.

anything? It might symbolise a bit of a snowball effect. I understand

:55:35.:55:38.

German officials and the German government have said they are going

:55:38.:55:42.

to pull out and not go to the VIP reception, because that is what

:55:42.:55:50.

they are, basically. What you see here is a gentle development of

:55:50.:55:57.

political disapproval. Let's just assume that it takes hold, and you

:55:57.:56:02.

have got 12, 13, 14 governments are saying they are not going to go,

:56:02.:56:06.

and someone like the Germans take it very seriously and says, do you

:56:06.:56:09.

know what, we would like our team to pull out. Do you think it would

:56:09.:56:15.

get that far? No, I don't. There is no precedent. But I think

:56:16.:56:19.

politically, the Ukraine, because they are inexperienced in these

:56:19.:56:23.

matters on such a scale, might be thinking to themselves, we do not

:56:23.:56:31.

want any sort of embarrassment, because we are now under the

:56:31.:56:37.

European view, and also they want to make sure that they don't upset

:56:38.:56:45.

their hosts, who are Uefa. Rather like Britain in 2012, they will be

:56:45.:56:50.

on their best behaviour. The whole point of taking the Games to

:56:50.:56:54.

Ukraine is to hope that they will conform with the rest of us. Can I

:56:54.:56:59.

just put into the view of the football authorities here, the FA.

:56:59.:57:07.

Or will they just not get involved? In the 1980s when the BOA were

:57:07.:57:11.

asked not to be involved in the Olympics, they said excuse me, we

:57:11.:57:21.

will make our own decision, but the athletes have a choice. There is

:57:21.:57:25.

another view that actually going to these countries, because there is a

:57:25.:57:29.

big divide over Bahrain and the Formula One. And obviously it went

:57:29.:57:34.

ahead. You can shine the light of publicity even more closely by

:57:34.:57:37.

going to these countries and be attending these tournaments, in a

:57:37.:57:41.

sense, were as if you don't go, people would think about the

:57:41.:57:45.

Ukraine again. I think this is a political problem that should be

:57:45.:57:52.

dealt with in political forum. I don't know quite why the European

:57:52.:57:56.

Council of Ministers has been so silent about it. This is a Council

:57:56.:58:00.

of Europe type interview. They are signed up to the Council of Europe

:58:00.:58:03.

under a signature of that, and they should not be holding people in

:58:03.:58:09.

prison and beating them up on trumped-up charges. Maybe the sport

:58:09.:58:12.

will push that forward, but I don't think the next step should be

:58:12.:58:15.

pulling out of football team, it should be putting real political

:58:15.:58:25.

pressure on them. We have got to find that the answer to the quiz!

:58:25.:58:28.

The fashion icon in Aslam about is, of course...? I think I will say

:58:28.:58:33.

Gallia Alexander. You are right. That is the right answer, Danny

:58:33.:58:41.

Alexander. There is no This Week tonight. There is no Daily Politics

:58:41.:58:46.

Andrew Neil and Jo Coburn with the latest political news including elections in France and Greece and whether the weather will affect the turnout at the local elections in the UK.

The former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, Sir Howard Davies, joins them for the whole programme.

Former footballer Garth Crooks talks about how the political situation in Ukraine could affect the upcoming Euro 2012 football tournament.


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