14/01/2013 Daily Politics


14/01/2013

Jo Coburn has the top political stories of the day, including pensions changes, Europe and Lord West on the Falklands.


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Transcript


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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. It's good news for

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women, low-paid workers and the self employed, so says the

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government, who will this afternoon introduced a new flat-rate state

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pension. Critics say people will have to work longer and contribute

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more to get the money. Steve Webb insists the new system will be

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fairer. Will David Cameron give us a referendum on Europe or not? This

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morning he seemed to indicate it could be on the cards, but only

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once he had renegotiated our relationship.

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The Falkland Islands will get a referendum. In March, they will get

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to decide if they want to remain British or not.

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And what is it a name? We will be asking if you can tell a

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:01:31.:01:32.

politician's personality from how All that in the next hour. With us

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for the first half of the programme, we are joined by the former Labour

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security minister, Admiral Lord West. The Daily Politics Laura very

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own TV anchor, I cannot write those jokes! In Miley, French troops are

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fighting extremists linked to Al- Qaeda. -- MI High. The Prime

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Minister stressed that no British troops would be deployed on the

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ground, but explained how Britain was supporting the French mission

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in other ways. I offered the use of two transport planes because France

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is a strong ally and friend of Britain, but what is being done

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mayor is a very much in favour of Al-Qaeda there have been a thorn in

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our flesh for some time. They have been involved in hostage-taking,

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and they use that money to pay for comms equipment and other things.

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They get drugs coming in from South America which go into Europe. It is

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quite an governed, some of it. We knew they had naught Mali, but now

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they are moving into South Mali, and it is a good thing that

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something is happening. So you support the French, can they be as

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confident as saying it is only a matter of weeks before we deal with

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the threat in that part of Mali and then we are out? The French do have

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bases across parts of Africa, unlike any other Western country.

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The danger with these things, rather like in Afghanistan, when we

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went in, it was right that we went in, we did take Al-Qaeda apart and

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stop them using terrorist training camps. We then stay there, and that

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is when you start getting problems. It is easy to miss the fact that

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you should get out and leave them to it, and I think the French may

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get their fingers caught if they are not careful. The Prime Minister

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is right that we should not get our troops involved, but we should

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support them with transport aircraft and things like that.

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that should be the extent of it. Absolutely. We have already heard

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that one of the planes has been delayed because of technical

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problems. They are very good aircraft, I am sure it will be got

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round very quickly. I was surprised the Prime Minister said we would

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share intelligence with them, because we do share intelligence

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with the French and a lot of people on anything to do with terrorism.

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We have worked very closely with all of our allies on anti-terrorist

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staff, I would hope that is happening all the time, and I'm

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sure it is. A United Nations back international calls from other

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parts of the region is expected, but not until the autumn. That

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could be the difficulty, the French may have to fill that gap. That is

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the problem, they could find themselves caught up there, and

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that might be unpopular. I have seen various reports calling this

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Hollande's war, whereas Lydia was Sarkozy's war. I think he needs to

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be quite careful if they are getting their fingers in the

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grinder. But I'm glad they have taken the action, this influences

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on the whole of the Sahel, an area of worry and concern. I remember

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talking about it when I was security minister, saying we had to

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be very careful, and it has grown as a threat, I think. It is now

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time for our daily quiz, and the question for today is, which of

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these four are somewhat surreal images is the odd one out? At the

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end of the show, will find out the correct answer. Do you know what

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your state pension will be when you retire? If you do not, do not worry,

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as the system is being replaced with a new system which is meant to

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be simpler. Anyone who retires after 2017 can forget all the

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complexities of basic state pension and second state pension. There

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will be just one single payment for each state pension of. The current

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basic state pension is �107.45 per week. But most people will receive

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either a second state pension or a means-tested Pension Credit which

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would bring their income to at least �142.70. But from 2017,

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pensioners will receive a single state pension of �144 per week, as

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long as they paid the full national insurance. The government says it

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will cost the public purse the same amount, but it will be simpler to

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administer and there are to those with small pensions. Earlier I

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spoke to Pensions Minister Steve Webb and began by asking him why he

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thought it would be simpler. At the moment, we probably have one of the

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most complicated pensions systems in the world. We have a basic

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pension that most people get, the state second pension that some get,

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and then many people do not get enough from that, so they get

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Pension Credit on top. It is baffling, and if you are at work

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today, and you want to plan for retirement, you have not got a clue

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what the government will pay for you. Now there is a basic minimum,

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and then when you are deciding what you want to save for their age, you

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know where you will stand. Who is going to benefit the most from

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these changes? So we are spending the same overall. Some will get

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more than they would have done, some will get less. Whom are they?

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The beneficiaries are particularly mothers in their late 50s he spent

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homer time with their children, which damaged their state pension.

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-- who spent time at home. Millions of workers face paying more tax

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through increased national insurance contributions if they are

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part of occupational schemes. is true, and those are mainly

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people who work in the public sector who pay less national

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insurance than other workers now and get lay state pension. They

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will pay the same national insurance in the future and get the

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same state pension as everyone else. Although their national insurance

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will go up a bit, their state pension will go quite substantially,

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so it is a good deal for public sector workers like those. Guineas

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current economic times, when unions are battling with the government

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about pension schemes and contributions, you are asking

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public sector workers to pay more out of their salary now, even

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though they may benefit later. So they will have to spend more out of

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their salary to pay for your changes. So we are talking about

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2017 at the earliest, and what will happen to those people, nurses and

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teachers, is then national insurance will rise by 1.4%, but

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their pension potential, instead of building up the 107, they will have

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a chance to build up to 144. If that was an investment, it would be

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a fantastic investment. What about these public sector workers facing

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higher taxes? Are the unions behind the scheme? I have already started

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conversations with the unions, and we will go on having that dialogue.

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None of this changes the pension they will get from their public

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service team. If you are a teacher or nurse, nothing we are announcing

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today changes the pension you get from that scheme. You'll pay more

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national insurance for a bigger state pension. How much money does

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the Treasury get from these changes? So what happens is reduced

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national insurance for people who have opted out of the state scheme

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been terms of rebates runs into many billions of pounds. That is

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not money we are spending, so it is a windfall to the Treasury, who

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will have to decide how to spend it, but we are not spending it on

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bigger pensions. How would you like to see that money come back as

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windfall being spent? If you're asking for teachers, for example,

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to pay more in terms of contributions, why not suggest some

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of that money goes back into education? Just to be clear, the

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teachers to pay more national insurance will get a bigger pension

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at the end, so they are in a good position. How would you like the

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money spent customer kit will be 2017 at the Alise Post -- at the

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earliest, and it is not my role to speculate on how that money will be

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spent. It will be available to the Chancellor of the day. We have

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heard from the IFS, they agree with you in the short term that there

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will be benefits for many people, but in the long term, 30 or 40

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years, people will be receiving a smaller pension relative to what

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they might have got and that in the basic state pension and second

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state pension, they will lose out. So the IFS are talking about the

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middle of this century, that sort of timescale, and we will be

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spending a much bigger share of national income on pensions after

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these reforms, but the rate of growth will be slow. We have got an

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ageing population, we will have to spend more on health, more on care,

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more on pensions, and what this helps us to do is have a measure of

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fiscal control decades down the line. For the first 20 years,

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something like that, we are spending pretty much the same as we

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are now. With us now is Ros Altmann, director-general of SAGA. Do you

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welcome these proposals? I very much welcome these proposals. They

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are not perfect, but they are a huge step forward and long overdue.

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We have the most ridiculous pensions system that virtually

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nobody understands, and even the DWP itself often says it is so

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complicated they cannot work out what your entitlement is going to

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be. You cannot carry on like that, and the current system penalises

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any money whose saves and a private pension, potentially, because it

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rely so heavily on means-testing. There is a fear that public sector

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workers will have to contribute more, well, they will have to

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contribute more, a bit more in terms of contributions. Isn't that

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going to be quite difficult for those people in the current

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climate? Well, first of all, at the moment, anyone in a final-salary

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type pension scheme, including public sector workers, gets a

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discount on their national insurance, because they are not

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contributing for the full state pension. In future, the potential

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is that they will no longer get the discount. How that will be handled,

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we have to wait for the detail, but there is the possibility they might

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have to pay up to another 1.4% national insurance, but that is in

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exchange for a much higher state pension. For which she will have to

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work longer. Well, the age when you get the state pension was already

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rising. Whether we had this new system or not. They would end up

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having to work longer. So the increase in the number of years for

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which you work to state pension age was already set, that is not

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changing directly as a result of these reforms, and most public

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sector workers will already have 30-35 years anyway, otherwise they

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wouldn't have a full working career. Now, we have already had some of

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our viewers writing in, worried about contributions that they have

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made into the second state pension. None of those contributions that

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have been paid up until now will be lost, will they? For up until 2017.

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No, what the government is saying is that it is not everyone who will

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have 144 and some people will be brought down to it and some people

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will be moved up to it. Anyone who was already entitled to more than

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144 and has paid extra will have that protected. So there will be a

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transitional period where, instead of getting one payment, people will

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still get extra above the 144, but it will be the case to anyone who

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has not got as much as that minimum level will be increased to that,

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which is mostly women. You know, most men already have more than

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�144 per week. Most women actually now have less. So it will bring

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forward the time at which men and women state pension will be

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equalised. Do you think This is a good idea? His is a practical

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proposal and solution to what is a complicated system? Well, at the

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devil is in the detail, and I have not been able to look at that, but

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anything that simplifies things it is complicated, and sometimes there

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is a bit of cant about talking about these things in government.

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There is a real problem that we are all living longer. That is good

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news! I am about to get to pension age. Far too young! It is very

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immediate for me. Therefore, we are in a period of austerity, and they

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are going to be able to get money for the Treasury now in the short

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term and then look into the future, and one needs to look at the detail,

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and I think it is important not to run a gonadal where people have

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spent money and paid for something. That is something that is to move,

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and occasionally we have seen things like that change, and that

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must not happen. Pensions are very important to individuals, long-term

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planning, and some people do not make any provision, and they are

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going to be in a very difficult The government argues this will

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give people some certainty. That is the point at the heart of this,

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which is that ultimately everyone, especially younger generations, for

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whom this will be more of a reality, everyone will know what the deal is.

:15:41.:15:51.
:15:51.:15:51.

When you reach state pension age, you will get �144 a week and that

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is it. If you want to live on more than that, you have to do something

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about it. Because of means testing at the moment, many moderate

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earners end up finding they have wasted their money by saving

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because they are replacing means- tested benefits that their

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colleagues didn't bother saving. It is not fair and it puts people off

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:16:29.:16:30.

saving. I don't think it is fair. At the end of this year,

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restrictions on immigration from Bulgaria and Romania will be lifted.

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Yesterday, speaking to Andrew on the Sunday Politics Show,

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Communities Secretary Eric Pickles admitted that the Government had no

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idea how many immigrants may arrive from these countries and that any

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influx could cause big problems. wasn't confident in figures. I have

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asked for a further explanation, and when I have got that and I feel

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confident about the figures, I will talk about the figures. Does the

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figure you have been given worry you? When I am confident about the

:17:08.:17:14.

figures, I will express my confidence or worries. But do you

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accept that this could present another major increase in housing

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demand in a country where there is already a major housing shortage?

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Given that we have got a housing shortage, any influx from Romania

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and Bulgaria is going to cause problems. It will cause problems

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not just in terms of the housing market but also on social housing

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market, but one of the reasons I am not prepared to start a scare story

:17:47.:17:51.

going is that I think we need to be reasonably confident about the

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figures. Well, our reporter David Thompson is on the green to discuss

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the issue further with Conservative MP Stewart Jackson and Sunder

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Katwala, Director of the think tank British Future. It seemed to be the

:18:06.:18:12.

elephant in the room that nobody seems to know the numbers. Philip

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collarbone as a Conservative MP, and he estimated there can be as

:18:16.:18:21.

many as 300,000 people coming into the country after December. Eric

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Pickles dismissed that figure, but as we heard he didn't seem able to

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give his own numbers on what that might be. I am joined by Stewart

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Jackson, the Conservative MP, who has a bill coming up on Wednesday

:18:36.:18:46.
:18:46.:18:47.

to try to limit the numbers on immigration, and Sunder Katwala,

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Director of the think tank British Future. We don't want to make the

:18:52.:19:01.

same mistakes as in 2004, importing low wages, low-skilled workers. We

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have not done a proper analysis of the impact on the employment market,

:19:05.:19:11.

the delivery of core public services and community cohesion and

:19:11.:19:13.

to is incumbent on the Prime Minister and Eric Pickles to

:19:13.:19:19.

reassure people that we will not have huge numbers, potentially 29

:19:19.:19:22.

million people from Romania and Bulgaria having three access to

:19:22.:19:26.

this country, and that they will not have a significant impact on

:19:26.:19:36.
:19:36.:19:36.

the market. How was it that Eric Pickles is unwilling or unable to

:19:36.:19:41.

say how many people will come here? It is fine if they are not putting

:19:41.:19:45.

the number out because they have not dumb are correct studies yet,

:19:45.:19:48.

but it will happen so it is important to do the projections and

:19:48.:19:54.

the work. Last time the government lost trust in 2004 because it was

:19:54.:19:59.

not expecting the scale of what happened. Otherwise it might have

:19:59.:20:05.

done the preparation better. This will be different because Polish

:20:05.:20:09.

people could come to Britain but they could not work in Germany or

:20:09.:20:14.

France. We have to work out - we have not got crystal ball - how

:20:14.:20:20.

many people we think might come to Britain, to which areas, and if

:20:20.:20:23.

there are aspects of the system that need to change. It is

:20:23.:20:27.

difficult to change the rules of the EU without the bigger debate of

:20:27.:20:32.

whether we want to be in it. can have your bill in parliament on

:20:32.:20:37.

Wednesday, not only that, this is EU law and you can't do anything

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about it. For the thing is that my view is it is not the same as 2004

:20:42.:20:46.

because there was no political will by the Labour government then to

:20:46.:20:51.

vary the free movement directives. We can review it on the impact on

:20:51.:20:57.

the economy, on public good, public security, the impact on the health

:20:57.:21:05.

service. It is not set in stone. It is a live piece of EU Law. My bill

:21:05.:21:08.

was not a completely get rid of the free movement directives but to

:21:08.:21:13.

look at it from a British perspective so there is plenty

:21:13.:21:17.

ministers can do. Foreigners as they can bring in a scheme to make

:21:17.:21:22.

sure we know who is in the country, look at criminal records, and look

:21:22.:21:27.

at agricultural producers. What has to happen to make Romania and

:21:27.:21:30.

Bulgarian immigration work for Britain? Having an independent

:21:30.:21:35.

study of what you are expecting will happen, looking at the policy

:21:35.:21:44.

areas that you know are open. Then we need to work out how we can

:21:44.:21:49.

manage the pressures. The bigger debate of whether we want to be in

:21:49.:21:53.

the European Union or not, this will happen in January and the

:21:53.:21:58.

political parties need to have that debate so it is handled in the

:21:58.:22:01.

interests of British society. We know that Polish people came here

:22:01.:22:05.

and worked hard and did something for the economy but we were not

:22:05.:22:10.

expecting that. Back to you in the studio. Before

:22:10.:22:19.

you go, it is it's snowing? If just a little bit. This is not Duncroft.

:22:19.:22:26.

Before we move on, the last government was criticised for not

:22:26.:22:32.

preparing Great Britain well enough when people from Poland were coming

:22:32.:22:35.

over from work. Do you think we need to look more closely at this

:22:35.:22:41.

now? I think the scale was not anticipated and we need greater

:22:41.:22:45.

clarity of what is involved. There is no doubt people in this country

:22:45.:22:53.

are concerned and worried - are people really making claims when

:22:53.:22:58.

they are working that they could not get in their own country? What

:22:58.:23:01.

impact will that have on my children? These people are willing

:23:01.:23:07.

to work for a lot less here because they are relatively poor. These

:23:07.:23:11.

issues worry people and we need greater clarity of the truth so we

:23:11.:23:15.

can then make decisions about what to do across-the-board to try and

:23:15.:23:19.

resolve that. Do you agree with Stewart Jackson, who was saying

:23:19.:23:24.

Britain should be looking to change the directives or restrict what

:23:24.:23:30.

people can claim when they come here? I wouldn't go as far as

:23:30.:23:33.

saying that blankly. We need to look at the totality and make

:23:33.:23:38.

decisions about how to protect our own people and people in this

:23:38.:23:43.

country, and what the best thing to do is. I'm also interested in what

:23:44.:23:50.

other countries in Europe do. I don't think we want to be out of

:23:50.:23:56.

step with that, because otherwise clearly they will come to us rather

:23:56.:24:06.
:24:06.:24:07.

than going to other countries to work. We need to be clear.

:24:07.:24:10.

In two months' time the people of the Falkland islands will decide in

:24:10.:24:13.

a referendum whether they want to remain British. The islands have

:24:13.:24:15.

belonged to Britain since 1833. Recently Argentina has been upping

:24:15.:24:19.

the pressure on Britain to give them up. But more than 30 years

:24:19.:24:21.

since we fought to protect them from Argentine invasion, is there

:24:21.:24:25.

really a case for us to keep hold of the Falklands? Susana Mendonsa

:24:25.:24:35.
:24:35.:24:36.

has been speaking to one man who We went to war over them and they

:24:36.:24:39.

are still proving a source of tension between Britain and

:24:39.:24:43.

Argentina, but as the people of the Falkland Islands prepare to vote on

:24:43.:24:47.

whether they want to stay British, some people think it is time to

:24:47.:24:52.

consider giving the islands up. the end, a deal will have to be

:24:52.:24:56.

done, just as this whole thing began because the Conservative

:24:56.:25:01.

government in the day was trying to do a deal with the Argentinians.

:25:01.:25:05.

after war broke out in 1982 there was little prospect of a deal with

:25:05.:25:10.

Argentina. Government papers from the time offer an insight into the

:25:10.:25:14.

impact of the invasion. When you sift through these documents, you

:25:14.:25:19.

get a real sense of how important the Falkland Islands were to

:25:19.:25:23.

Margaret Thatcher. She talks about the moment when she found out the

:25:23.:25:27.

islands had been invaded and describes it as the worst moment of

:25:27.:25:31.

her life. He was some correspondence between herself and

:25:31.:25:35.

Ronald Reagan, and she basically tells him that she would do the

:25:36.:25:40.

same if Alaska had been threatened in the same way. While she enjoyed

:25:40.:25:44.

American support back then, the UK's international interests could

:25:44.:25:51.

now be damaged for its support for the British outpost. The cost of

:25:51.:25:57.

Obama's attitude to the British Empire is not what Ronald Reagan

:25:57.:26:03.

and Margaret Thatcher would have put together, and this is a long

:26:03.:26:08.

running difficulty. Apart from that, colonialism at the UN has a rather

:26:08.:26:14.

toxic word. It doesn't do the current British attitude any good

:26:14.:26:18.

and it doesn't do our trade prospects for the future any good

:26:18.:26:23.

in Latin America. Recent oil exploration in the Falklands has

:26:23.:26:27.

led to increased tensions with Argentina. Last year this stand-off

:26:27.:26:33.

was caught on camera between David Cameron and Argentina's President.

:26:33.:26:38.

She accused Britain of 19th century colonialism, in an open letter that

:26:38.:26:43.

received this response. It is 30 years ago, for heaven's sake the

:26:43.:26:49.

Cold War ended 25 years ago - can we move on a bit? Then there is the

:26:49.:26:53.

question of how much it costs to maintain a military presence in the

:26:53.:27:03.
:27:03.:27:14.

Falklands. The MoD put it at more Nobody is asking us whether we want

:27:14.:27:20.

to continue paying the money to defend the Falklands, or to offer

:27:20.:27:27.

this continuing lifestyles to them into perpetuity. For the Falklands

:27:27.:27:37.
:27:37.:27:37.

war ended in 72 days, but the war of words over its future continues.

:27:37.:27:40.

Well our guest of the day, Admiral West, defended the Falkland islands.

:27:40.:27:43.

In fact his ship, HMS Ardent, was sunk during the 1982 conflict.

:27:43.:27:48.

We're also joined by the Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn. What is your case

:27:48.:27:52.

for keeping the Falklands? I think the people who live there, and

:27:53.:27:59.

indeed I have a friend over who runs a farm - one of the fifth

:27:59.:28:02.

generation who live there - and the people who live there firmly wished

:28:02.:28:06.

to remain in the circumstances they are at the moment with a

:28:06.:28:10.

considerable amount of local government control but also under

:28:10.:28:14.

the overarching control of the UK and the Queen. That is what they

:28:14.:28:19.

want and I think they have a right to self determination. This talk of

:28:20.:28:22.

colonialism, if you look historically the Spanish settlers

:28:22.:28:29.

in South America who revolted from Spain in 1816, they embarked on a

:28:29.:28:36.

major piece of colonisation, up into the northern part towards

:28:36.:28:41.

Paraguay, almost fighting against Chile. They sent an armed party to

:28:41.:28:47.

the Falkland Islands and they were the colonialists innocence.

:28:47.:28:51.

shouldn't they have a right to self-determination? They can have a

:28:51.:28:57.

vote, and I have no doubt they will vote to remain British. Some issues

:28:57.:29:02.

need to be discussed. Britain is very keen on self-determination for

:29:02.:29:06.

the islanders but has spent the last 40 years preventing the Jay

:29:06.:29:11.

Goss islanders from returning to their own territories so there is

:29:11.:29:17.

double standards there. Low as concentrate on the Falkland Islands

:29:17.:29:23.

themselves. If they vote, isn't that the end of the story?

:29:23.:29:27.

because relations with Argentina will be difficult, a possible

:29:27.:29:31.

blockade, and that relations with the whole of Latin America. Other

:29:31.:29:38.

situations like this, for example the dispute between Finland and

:29:38.:29:42.

Sweden were sorted out by some degree of joint administration

:29:42.:29:46.

while retaining the nationality. It has been done with hung Kong, to

:29:46.:29:51.

some extent Gibraltar. There is another way forward other than

:29:51.:29:56.

spending more money and a potential catastrophic conflict which will

:29:56.:30:01.

damage our relations. Do you see a conflict being on the cards? I hope

:30:01.:30:05.

not, but the more the rhetoric built up There is that danger.

:30:05.:30:15.

you think there is a conflict on That did not think they are capable

:30:15.:30:21.

or would intend to do military action. I believe the islands are

:30:21.:30:26.

well enough defended. It the airfield was captured, we would be

:30:26.:30:30.

incapable of taking it back, and that is a different issue, but I

:30:30.:30:34.

think the danger with raising the rhetoric, and the reason that she

:30:34.:30:40.

is doing this is because she is very unpopular with in Argentina.

:30:40.:30:46.

She has got mid- term elections coming up, they have got huge

:30:46.:30:50.

problems in their economy, their training ship was impounded. She

:30:50.:30:54.

has had to hire a British plane to visit other countries because if

:30:54.:30:57.

she flew in one of hers, it would be impounded, because she has

:30:57.:31:01.

messed up the economy so much. It is a way of taking people's eyes

:31:01.:31:07.

off that. And that may suitor in that case. If you use that rhetoric,

:31:07.:31:10.

the problem is you might get a splinter group who would do

:31:10.:31:16.

something stupid, and rather like back in 1982, when Galtieri used

:31:16.:31:20.

this as a way of taking people's eyes of the dreadful things, then

:31:20.:31:25.

you end up with 22 of your boys being killed, as I did. Not for the

:31:25.:31:29.

first time as a leader tried to use diversionary tactics, so it is in

:31:30.:31:32.

her interests to escalate this, and it makes it difficult for the

:31:33.:31:37.

British government. In the same way that it was in the interest of

:31:37.:31:40.

Margaret Thatcher to divert away from economic issues. There is a

:31:40.:31:44.

letter being produced by five Nobel Peace Prize winners who suggest

:31:44.:31:48.

that without changing the question of nationality, there is room for

:31:48.:31:52.

discussion and debate as the UN have called for. Why can't we

:31:52.:31:56.

respond to that at work on that basis, rather than upping the ante

:31:56.:32:00.

and spending more money and arms? Couldn't you start negotiating?

:32:00.:32:05.

do not think we are upping the ante, I think they are. But we are not

:32:05.:32:10.

even discussing it. The police said we will not discuss the nationality

:32:10.:32:16.

aspect, and there will be a referendum there. -- we said. When

:32:17.:32:21.

the despotic regime collapsed and they became democratic, there was

:32:21.:32:25.

an opportunity for them to extend a hand, build up close links, and

:32:25.:32:29.

they did not do that, and that is so unfortunate, and instead they

:32:29.:32:33.

are looking and thinking, gosh, they have got quite a lot of money

:32:33.:32:37.

from the fishing revenue, there might be oil, we are broke, there

:32:37.:32:42.

is going to be this referendum, and all of these things are raised the

:32:42.:32:48.

issue. What about the issue of oil revenues? It has not been found, so

:32:48.:32:52.

let's hold on that, but it would be a benefit to whichever companies

:32:52.:32:56.

get hold of the concessions, and the tax income, and we get very

:32:56.:32:59.

little at the moment from the Falklands. There's obviously a

:32:59.:33:03.

possibility of some kind of arrangement where a number of

:33:03.:33:07.

people could exploit the oil reserves. In 1989, some Falkland

:33:07.:33:11.

Islands councillors started a dialogue with Argentina. Is it the

:33:11.:33:15.

end of the world if we have a dialogue with a very large

:33:15.:33:19.

neighbouring country? When did benefit the Falkland islanders to

:33:19.:33:22.

have a bit more certainty that they are not going to have his perennial

:33:22.:33:26.

threat because it suits the Argentinians domestically? -- when

:33:26.:33:35.

did. She and David Cameron and the government holed out at hand? --

:33:35.:33:41.

shouldn't. Not when they are doing what they are doing. Although this

:33:41.:33:45.

sort of follow along, South America, a lot of them do not like the

:33:45.:33:49.

Argentine. Chile and Brazil are not against the UK to the extent that

:33:49.:33:54.

people might say they are. Pinochet supported Thatcher, the current

:33:54.:33:58.

Chilean government would not. are much moe pro than people might

:33:58.:34:05.

Reports in the papers, defence chiefs preparing contingency plans

:34:05.:34:10.

to defend the Falklands, additional troops, another warship. Coming up

:34:10.:34:15.

to the referendum, because of all the talk, the loose Talk From the

:34:15.:34:17.

President of the Argentine, I think it makes sense to have

:34:17.:34:23.

contingencies in place. The Falkland islanders pay big chunk of

:34:23.:34:27.

their defence costs. If it did happened, if oil were found, they

:34:27.:34:30.

would be able to pay all of it. It is right we should defend these

:34:30.:34:34.

people, because we are able to do it. In the case of Hong Kong, we

:34:34.:34:40.

could not have done it. We could do it, and I think it is right.

:34:40.:34:45.

that note, I will say goodbye to Jeremy Corbyn and Lord West, thank

:34:45.:34:47.

you. Over the weekend, there was more

:34:47.:34:51.

discussion about Britain's place in Europe. Eric Pickles increase the

:34:51.:34:55.

pressure on the Prime Minister, saying that the UK should remain a

:34:55.:34:59.

member of the EU at any price and that he would vote against his

:34:59.:35:02.

party on the issue if you felt it was in the national interest. David

:35:02.:35:05.

Cameron was doing the rounds this morning and was asked about the

:35:05.:35:09.

thorny issue of a referendum on membership. He told John Humphrys

:35:09.:35:13.

he wanted to give the British people a referendum, but only in

:35:13.:35:17.

the right circumstances. There are opportunities for us to make

:35:17.:35:21.

changes, and when we make those changes, a new settlement, we

:35:21.:35:25.

should make there is consent for that settlement. I will be setting

:35:25.:35:30.

out exactly how in my speech, but I'm not against a referenda. Are

:35:30.:35:34.

you in favour? In some cases, particularly in this case. The

:35:34.:35:42.

principle should be this. If you are fundamentally changing the

:35:42.:35:46.

relationship in Europe, then you should be having a referendum.

:35:46.:35:49.

have just said the referendum is changing -- the relationship is

:35:49.:35:53.

changing, so it follows that there will be a referendum, and the

:35:53.:35:57.

question that follows that, whether it be and in Out referendum? You'll

:35:57.:36:02.

have to wait for the speech for the full details. But you are not

:36:02.:36:06.

ruling that out. I want to give people a proper choice. If we had

:36:06.:36:10.

an in-out referendum tomorrow, or very shortly, I do not think that

:36:10.:36:13.

would be the right answer, for the simple reason that we would be

:36:14.:36:17.

giving people a false choice, because right now a lot of people

:36:17.:36:21.

would say, well, I would like to be in Europe but I'm not happy with

:36:21.:36:27.

every aspect of the relationship. That is my view, so I think an in-

:36:27.:36:35.

out referendum today is a false choice. I have been joined by

:36:35.:36:40.

Conservative MP Margot James, Labour MP Pat McFadden, and Greg

:36:40.:36:44.

Mulholland of the Liberal Democrats. Would you like to see an in-out

:36:44.:36:49.

referendum? Not at the moment, but I do think the ultimate referendum,

:36:49.:36:53.

it looks likely that we will have one at some point, and it will have

:36:53.:36:57.

to address the issue. When you think it should be? Well, it is

:36:57.:37:01.

unlikely to be this side of the next general election, so we would

:37:01.:37:05.

be looking at after 2015, and I am concerned that will create a huge

:37:05.:37:10.

amount of uncertainty which might affect investment into this country

:37:10.:37:14.

by global corporations. What do you think business at the moment is

:37:14.:37:18.

thinking? We have spoken to global businessmen over the last few weeks

:37:18.:37:22.

to say, without that certainty, they cannot plan, they do not know

:37:22.:37:26.

whether to base their companies here, or parts of their companies

:37:26.:37:29.

here. Is David Cameron making a huge mistake not giving that

:37:29.:37:36.

certainty? Exactly, that is the point. Business do not want that

:37:36.:37:38.

uncertainty, and I am very concerned about foreign investment

:37:38.:37:42.

into this country. We are the number-one destination for foreign

:37:43.:37:45.

investment in the whole of Europe, and we want to hang on to that, it

:37:46.:37:50.

is very much in our interests to hang on to that position. What do

:37:50.:37:54.

you want David Cameron to say? want the Prime Minister to confirm

:37:54.:37:57.

that Britain's place should be at the heart of Europe and that we

:37:57.:38:03.

should be using our position as a very important member of the EU to

:38:03.:38:08.

influence, to get changed. I agree that change is needed, but also to

:38:08.:38:12.

drive forward the market which is so in the interests of this country.

:38:12.:38:16.

How confident are you that he can renegotiate Britain's relationship

:38:16.:38:20.

with the EU? I think there are areas where there is a chance of

:38:20.:38:26.

renegotiation. Which ones? Do you want to see, as some have said, an

:38:26.:38:31.

effective veto a financial services regulation, and also of the Working

:38:31.:38:34.

Time Directive? Financial services and the Working Time Directive are

:38:34.:38:41.

areas I would like to see a loosening of EU power, yes. That is

:38:41.:38:45.

possible, Pat McFadden, to renegotiate our relationship, to

:38:45.:38:49.

repatriate powers in those areas? do not think the agenda set out by

:38:49.:38:54.

that fresh Start group is going to be achieved. I think the

:38:54.:38:58.

Conservatives are either being naive or perhaps even dishonest

:38:58.:39:02.

about the amount of repatriation, renegotiation that we are likely to

:39:02.:39:08.

see. Our objective should not be to go along with a menu which, if you

:39:08.:39:13.

like, dissolves the common rules. Our objective should be different,

:39:13.:39:18.

it should be to reinforce the single market, to press for a

:39:18.:39:22.

growth agenda, around things like transport, communications. The

:39:22.:39:27.

future for the UK and Europe has to be about how to get growth and jobs,

:39:27.:39:31.

and my fear about the current discussion is that it is bringing

:39:31.:39:35.

uncertainty, casting doubt over our relationship with the EU. It is

:39:35.:39:39.

about inward investment, but it is also about businesses here. They

:39:39.:39:44.

want to know the future, too. Should the Labour Party promised a

:39:44.:39:49.

referendum before the next election? I am not keen on having

:39:49.:39:55.

this referendum. Our tour. I think it will lead to uncertainty. I am

:39:56.:39:59.

certainly not keen on announcing it when we do not know what the future

:40:00.:40:04.

shape is, what the question is. Even David Cameron has not told us

:40:04.:40:07.

whether he is proposing a referendum on a renegotiated

:40:07.:40:13.

package... Well, that is what he has implied. Or whether it is a

:40:13.:40:17.

simple in-out question, as many people want. I think there's a lot

:40:17.:40:21.

of nostalgia about this discussion. They would like to see the UK as

:40:22.:40:26.

some kind of island version of Switzerland or Norway. I do not

:40:26.:40:30.

believe that is the right economic or political future for the UK.

:40:30.:40:34.

Liberal Democrats went into the 2010 election promising and in that

:40:34.:40:39.

referendum. Will Nick Clegg promise that now going into 2015? We will

:40:39.:40:42.

have to see what commitments are made when the manifesto is written.

:40:42.:40:48.

But if you promised it in 2010, why not in 2015? Can we be clear what

:40:48.:40:52.

the coalition has achieved? It is the first time this has ever been

:40:52.:40:56.

achieved, and if there are any transfers of powers to Brussels,

:40:56.:40:59.

there will be a referendum. That has never happened before, and that

:40:59.:41:03.

has been delivered through the coalition agreement. I think that

:41:03.:41:07.

is very important, and I think it will be better to reiterate that

:41:07.:41:10.

message to the British people and get on with dealing with the

:41:10.:41:14.

economic crisis here and supporting the situation in Europe. So you do

:41:14.:41:18.

not personally want a referendum. You think it would lead to

:41:18.:41:21.

instability. If there was any suggestion of transfer of powers,

:41:22.:41:25.

there would have to now be a referendum, and that is right, but

:41:25.:41:29.

this is not the right time to be talking about an in-out referendum,

:41:29.:41:33.

because we are in the middle of the most serious economic crisis since

:41:33.:41:37.

the Second World War. The priority for the country, the government and

:41:37.:41:41.

business is for us to deal with that. You say they are areas that

:41:41.:41:45.

could be renegotiated, and if not, where would you stand then?

:41:45.:41:50.

most fertile ground lies in the areas where it is not just Britain,

:41:50.:41:54.

it is other member states, it would be in their interests to have a

:41:54.:41:58.

reduction in some of the influence over the social chapter, over the

:41:58.:42:01.

Working Time Directive and that sort of thing. There is no

:42:01.:42:05.

indication from the leading lights in the commission and in the

:42:05.:42:09.

Parliament to say that would be achievable. If you open Pandora's

:42:09.:42:12.

box for one country, you would have to do it for all member states.

:42:12.:42:15.

think it is a bit premature to write off the chances of getting

:42:15.:42:20.

powers back from the EU. I do agree that it is going to be difficult,

:42:20.:42:24.

and the Commission are not going to want to see a reduction of Central

:42:24.:42:29.

Powers, but there are, as I say, some areas where other member

:42:29.:42:32.

states in whose interests it would be to have less Brussels's

:42:32.:42:38.

interference. But there is no guarantee. No. If the powers are

:42:38.:42:41.

not repatriated, which are like to see Britain come out of the EU or

:42:41.:42:47.

stay? No, I would not want to see Britain come out of the EU. So you

:42:47.:42:51.

do not agree with Eric Pickles that we should stay at any price?

:42:52.:42:56.

not exactly sure what he said, but you asked me a straightforward

:42:56.:43:03.

question, what I want to leave the EU, and the answer is no. Eric

:43:03.:43:08.

Pickles said that the UK should not stay in the EU at any price, sorry,

:43:08.:43:13.

should not stay. Of course not at any price, but there are

:43:13.:43:16.

negotiations going on all the time between member states and the UK

:43:16.:43:21.

and Brussels, and I'm sure that the Prime Minister will achieve enough

:43:21.:43:26.

in order for most people to be comfortable with the idea that the

:43:26.:43:29.

benefits of EU membership outweigh the risks of withdrawal. Don't you

:43:29.:43:33.

think it is right for the government to be pushing for a

:43:33.:43:37.

better, better sort of relationship as far as Britain as concerned? If

:43:37.:43:42.

it can repatriate powers, then it should. I think Margaret is right

:43:42.:43:47.

to say that the way that the EU advances national interest is to

:43:47.:43:52.

build alliances, to reach agreement with those who have not common

:43:52.:43:55.

interests, but the government's stands in the last two years has

:43:55.:44:00.

been moving away from that. We seem very semi-detached in European

:44:00.:44:03.

discussions, we seem not to care about that, and the whole thing is

:44:03.:44:08.

now being governed by internal political considerations, fear of

:44:08.:44:11.

the rise of UKIP, and what we have got here now is a tension between

:44:11.:44:15.

the domestic interests of the Conservative Party and the national

:44:15.:44:18.

interests of the country, and it is in the national interest to stay at

:44:18.:44:22.

the heart of these discussions. is Monday, so what has this week

:44:23.:44:27.

got in store at Westminster? This afternoon the NHS chief executive

:44:27.:44:30.

and medical director appear before the Public Accounts Committee to be

:44:30.:44:33.

quizzed on efficiency savings in the health service in England.

:44:33.:44:38.

Tomorrow sees the start of the trial of Chris Huhne and his ex-

:44:38.:44:41.

wife on charges of perverting the course of justice. Wednesday sees

:44:41.:44:46.

the launch of the Conservative bright blue group's new book, with

:44:46.:44:56.

the title Tory Modernisation, expected to suggest relaxing

:44:56.:45:01.

planning, and permitting profit- making companies to run schools. On

:45:01.:45:04.

Thursday, William Hague will make a key speech during a visit to

:45:04.:45:08.

Australia. On Friday, the Bishop of Liverpool will host a summit of

:45:08.:45:12.

large cities to challenge what he says is the Government's unfair

:45:12.:45:22.
:45:22.:45:22.

distribution of local authority Joining us, all the right from the

:45:22.:45:31.

Independent and James Forsyth from the Spectator. -- Oliver Wright.

:45:31.:45:34.

There is mounting concern about what the Prime Minister is going to

:45:34.:45:39.

say and how the party will react. We have known the date of this

:45:39.:45:43.

speech for ages, but there are still hasn't been a meeting of the

:45:43.:45:47.

Conservative political Cabinet about what David Cameron will say.

:45:47.:45:52.

We know they are meeting on Wednesday, but we know the speech

:45:52.:45:56.

is already written. Why has this been trailed for so long? Wouldn't

:45:56.:46:00.

it have been better to have just given a speech without the debate

:46:00.:46:07.

beforehand? I think that is right. David Cameron is a Conservative

:46:07.:46:11.

Euro-sceptic in the old sense of the word, whereas much of his party

:46:11.:46:14.

is far to the right of him, and frankly they would be perfectly

:46:14.:46:19.

happy to see Britain out of Europe altogether unless he can negotiate

:46:19.:46:27.

some radical changes, which I think it is quite some clear whether he

:46:27.:46:30.

wants or he is prepared to do. There it is the key, if you like,

:46:30.:46:35.

the pivotal moment in terms of whether Britain can actually

:46:35.:46:45.
:46:45.:46:48.

repatriate these powers, and basing the whole speech on a larger if

:46:48.:46:55.

makes it difficult. The mainstream Tory opinion on Europe wants a

:46:55.:46:59.

different relationship with the EU, and he needs to at least be

:46:59.:47:03.

prepared to suggest that if the EU will not give you what you want you

:47:03.:47:08.

have to be prepared to leave. That is a Rubicon David Cameron is not

:47:08.:47:11.

prepared to cross because he is concerned about what the

:47:11.:47:14.

international reaction would be, but it is hard to see how he will

:47:14.:47:20.

get what he wants if his opening line of negotiation is we really

:47:20.:47:27.

want to stay in the EU, but please can we have some powers back?

:47:27.:47:32.

of this leads to talk of Europe, exactly what David Cameron wants to

:47:32.:47:37.

avoid. Yes, but it has come back and you can't help but feel David

:47:37.:47:41.

Cameron has put himself into a position where this is going to be

:47:41.:47:45.

one of the most dominant arguments in the run-up to the next election,

:47:45.:47:48.

and being in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, who are much

:47:49.:47:54.

more disposed to Europe than him, that spells all sorts of problems.

:47:54.:47:59.

It is possible that David Cameron, as he said this morning in his

:47:59.:48:02.

interview, is in tune with what the majority of the British public

:48:02.:48:08.

thinks, but not in tune with what the rest of his party thinks.

:48:08.:48:14.

about the television debate? Could it happen, but earlier - is that

:48:15.:48:20.

right? Yes, I think we will see the Tories are pushing for a David

:48:20.:48:25.

Cameron Ed Miliband head to head for the new broadcasting rules

:48:25.:48:30.

chicken, so you would not have to include the Lib Dems or UKIP.

:48:30.:48:33.

this is because David Cameron said it might take over the whole

:48:33.:48:38.

campaign? It requires the Conservatives, and their strongest

:48:38.:48:43.

card in the next election is who do you want to be Prime Minister -

:48:43.:48:49.

David Cameron or Ed Miliband? They will try to write the Lib Dems out

:48:49.:48:55.

of the script. The interesting thing which we may see is a change

:48:55.:49:03.

in format of the debate. Last time there were a lot of rules, but this

:49:03.:49:07.

time aids to both their leaders think their guy is good at town

:49:07.:49:11.

hall debates with more interaction with the audience. David Cameron

:49:11.:49:17.

has been going round the country doing his talks, and people close

:49:18.:49:22.

to him say that when he does this directly he connects with the

:49:22.:49:26.

audience and they are both pretty convinced they guide will trump the

:49:26.:49:30.

other guy. We might see a more innovative way forward which will

:49:30.:49:36.

be better than last time. So on thing to look forward to. I will

:49:36.:49:45.

let you go. Thank you. Only last week Nick Clegg and David Cameron

:49:45.:49:47.

were standing shoulder-to-shoulder reaffirming their commitment to the

:49:47.:49:53.

Coalition. But today sees a test of that unity. A Labour amendment in

:49:53.:49:56.

the House of Lords this afternoon will seek to delay plans to redraw

:49:57.:49:59.

parliamentary constituencies until 2018. And Lib Dem peers are

:49:59.:50:02.

expected to support it, scuppering Conservative hopes of obtaining a

:50:02.:50:05.

20-seat advantage over the other parties at the next election. So,

:50:05.:50:08.

are the boundary changes now a dead duck? Or can the PM persuade

:50:08.:50:10.

Democratic Unionists and Scottish Nationalists to support it in the

:50:10.:50:20.

Commons? I have my three MPs first ball. Margot James, if this goes

:50:20.:50:25.

through the efforts to change the boundaries are over. And we are not

:50:25.:50:32.

so optimistic as we were, and it is quite courageous. It still requires

:50:32.:50:35.

many more votes to elect a Conservative government than a

:50:35.:50:38.

Labour government. The system is wrong and we are trying to reduce

:50:38.:50:43.

the number of MPs, which has a lot of public support, and it looks

:50:43.:50:48.

like we will be defeated by draconian laws this afternoon.

:50:48.:50:51.

you think you will be on the public's side when you vote to

:50:51.:50:57.

reduce the number of MPs to 600? certainly did we are acting in the

:50:57.:51:01.

interest of the country because the boundary changes were introduced at

:51:01.:51:05.

the wrong time and they were the wrong set of proposals, which were

:51:05.:51:09.

there to simply advantage the Conservative Party rather than to

:51:09.:51:13.

deal with the genuine issue that Margot James has said there, the

:51:13.:51:18.

number of votes. I said all way through, I tabled an amendment when

:51:18.:51:25.

this was going through the House of Commons doing exactly what was done

:51:25.:51:30.

today, and this is the right thing to do. It was an absurd time to

:51:30.:51:34.

push it through, before the next general election. We need a

:51:34.:51:38.

sensible, longer review with more sensible rules and I think we could

:51:38.:51:45.

get more agreement. Gerrymandering going on? At some not. The boundary

:51:45.:51:52.

commissioner has been sitting for two years. Surely within a

:51:52.:51:58.

parliament there is time. At the moment it is not fair and we have

:51:58.:52:03.

too many MPs, we are trying to reduce the constituencies and make

:52:03.:52:08.

them more often equal size. What do you say to that? The rules are

:52:08.:52:14.

simply not there to deal with, as I say, the problem is that the rules

:52:14.:52:18.

were far too prescriptive and tied the hands of the Boundary

:52:18.:52:23.

Commission and exempted some islands and not others. The have

:52:23.:52:27.

been accused of opportunism because it has been a gift for you, keeping

:52:27.:52:31.

the rules and the boundaries as they are because potentially the

:52:31.:52:37.

Tories could have gained 20 seat at the next election. The important

:52:37.:52:41.

thing about the amendment is that it is not just a Labour amendment,

:52:41.:52:45.

it has support from at least some of the Liberal Democrats, some

:52:45.:52:50.

Welsh nationalists, and some crossbenchers so there is a broader

:52:50.:52:54.

view to do this before the next election. You admit there is

:52:54.:52:58.

nothing wrong with unequal constituencies though? What

:52:58.:53:03.

troubled me in the draft proposals was there was no account taken of

:53:03.:53:06.

traditional community boundaries so you had seats crossing city

:53:06.:53:13.

boundaries all over the place. We need to be wary of one point - the

:53:13.:53:17.

Conservative Party are desperate to construct an alliance with

:53:17.:53:20.

nationalists, unionists, any alliance they can to get this

:53:20.:53:25.

through the House of Commons. We have got a referendum on Scottish

:53:25.:53:29.

independence coming up and I do not want to see any kind of backstairs

:53:29.:53:33.

deal between David Cameron and the SNP which is not in the interest of

:53:33.:53:36.

the country to push through something which he believes is in

:53:36.:53:41.

the interests of the Conservative Party. I can't conceive of any such

:53:41.:53:46.

deal. The Conservative Party and the Prime Minister are dedicated to

:53:46.:53:54.

maintaining the Union. Do you think there will be any offer? Yes, we

:53:54.:53:59.

are very keen to get these boundary reviews through, for the reasons I

:53:59.:54:04.

said. What's could be offered? implication was some deal over the

:54:04.:54:11.

referendum and I can't believe that would come to pass. Let's go back

:54:11.:54:15.

to the coalition agreement - the deal was that you would back this.

:54:15.:54:20.

The deal was we would back a redrawing of the boundaries but we

:54:20.:54:24.

did not specify the rules and if you look at the coalition agreement

:54:24.:54:29.

it says there a lot of areas where we will do something but not how we

:54:29.:54:35.

do it. I don't necessarily think backbenchers should. We should be

:54:35.:54:40.

clear that reform of the House of Lords, which has one of the few on

:54:40.:54:43.

elected chambers and the world, one of only a handful of countries, it

:54:43.:54:47.

still has people in there simply because their parents and the

:54:47.:54:51.

Conservatives wouldn't back that. I'm afraid it was quite right when

:54:51.:55:01.
:55:01.:55:03.

it likes of Wigan -- when the Nick Clegg said we would not back the

:55:03.:55:11.

changes. We can go back - was everything in the coalition

:55:11.:55:15.

agreement right? Was it specify sufficiently? I would say not

:55:15.:55:19.

necessarily but they did a very good job in the limited time they

:55:19.:55:23.

had. Is it right the boundary changes have been delayed? We are

:55:23.:55:33.
:55:33.:55:39.

dealing with the economic crisis, it is. Earlier in the programme, we

:55:39.:55:43.

set the following quiz. The question was which of these four

:55:43.:55:53.

images is the odd one out? So does anybody know the correct answer?

:55:53.:55:57.

One hasn't got any drawing in but I suspect it is more complicated than

:55:57.:56:05.

that. You are right, in that. Let's have a look at that so-called

:56:05.:56:09.

signature in the corner. This is the signature of the new Treasury

:56:09.:56:15.

Secretary in the United States. The others are our Rome doodles of his

:56:15.:56:19.

signature. It does looks like the ridiculous. One person who might be

:56:19.:56:29.

able to talk about this signature is the Chairman of the British

:56:29.:56:32.

Institute of Graphologists, Adam Brand, who joins us now. What can

:56:32.:56:38.

you say about this? And it has a lot of meaning. Signatures are the

:56:38.:56:41.

public image, and when you are looking up personality through the

:56:41.:56:44.

handwriting you do need to see the handwriting and not just the

:56:44.:56:51.

signature. A man's signature has settled down by the time he is 18

:56:51.:56:56.

or 19, but if you look at the way the loops have formed, they are

:56:56.:57:00.

known as arcades, a bridge type structure. This is someone who

:57:00.:57:07.

wants to hide his motive. It is quite a secretive type of writing.

:57:07.:57:12.

The let's have a brief look at some of the other signatures. We can see

:57:12.:57:20.

David Cameron, the Prime Minister. What does that say to you? If you

:57:20.:57:24.

look at the first letter of each name, when you look at the capital

:57:24.:57:34.
:57:34.:57:36.

letters, look at the power of the D against the C. Small writing like

:57:36.:57:42.

that in the middle zone is a sign of consideration. You can read so

:57:43.:57:49.

much into somebody's signature? Let's look at Ed Miliband next, the

:57:49.:57:57.

Labour leader. Short? That is a sort of "everybody knows who I am"

:57:57.:58:05.

because it is illegible. Is that how you would describe him?!

:58:05.:58:10.

angle at the top of the second stroke, in the upper zone, that

:58:10.:58:16.

means somebody has quite strong ideas. The other thing is that he

:58:16.:58:20.

has an element of self- confidence because of the area underneath the

:58:20.:58:25.

signature. If very briefly, Nick Clegg. What is this screaming out

:58:25.:58:31.

to you? You see how disconnected it is, so again he wants to make

:58:31.:58:37.

public impact. Disconnected writing comes from people who are quite

:58:37.:58:42.

intuitive. The problem is this is just a signature, but writing is

:58:42.:58:47.

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