Browse content similar to 14/01/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. It's good news for | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
women, low-paid workers and the self employed, so says the | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
government, who will this afternoon introduced a new flat-rate state | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
pension. Critics say people will have to work longer and contribute | :00:52. | :00:58. | |
more to get the money. Steve Webb insists the new system will be | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
fairer. Will David Cameron give us a referendum on Europe or not? This | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
morning he seemed to indicate it could be on the cards, but only | :01:06. | :01:10. | |
once he had renegotiated our relationship. | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
The Falkland Islands will get a referendum. In March, they will get | :01:13. | :01:17. | |
to decide if they want to remain British or not. | :01:17. | :01:21. | |
And what is it a name? We will be asking if you can tell a | :01:21. | :01:31. | |
:01:31. | :01:32. | ||
politician's personality from how All that in the next hour. With us | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
for the first half of the programme, we are joined by the former Labour | :01:35. | :01:41. | |
security minister, Admiral Lord West. The Daily Politics Laura very | :01:41. | :01:48. | |
own TV anchor, I cannot write those jokes! In Miley, French troops are | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
fighting extremists linked to Al- Qaeda. -- MI High. The Prime | :01:53. | :01:56. | |
Minister stressed that no British troops would be deployed on the | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
ground, but explained how Britain was supporting the French mission | :02:00. | :02:09. | |
:02:10. | :02:10. | ||
in other ways. I offered the use of two transport planes because France | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
is a strong ally and friend of Britain, but what is being done | :02:14. | :02:24. | |
:02:24. | :03:03. | ||
mayor is a very much in favour of Al-Qaeda there have been a thorn in | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
our flesh for some time. They have been involved in hostage-taking, | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
and they use that money to pay for comms equipment and other things. | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
They get drugs coming in from South America which go into Europe. It is | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
quite an governed, some of it. We knew they had naught Mali, but now | :03:21. | :03:26. | |
they are moving into South Mali, and it is a good thing that | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
something is happening. So you support the French, can they be as | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
confident as saying it is only a matter of weeks before we deal with | :03:33. | :03:39. | |
the threat in that part of Mali and then we are out? The French do have | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
bases across parts of Africa, unlike any other Western country. | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
The danger with these things, rather like in Afghanistan, when we | :03:47. | :03:52. | |
went in, it was right that we went in, we did take Al-Qaeda apart and | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
stop them using terrorist training camps. We then stay there, and that | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
is when you start getting problems. It is easy to miss the fact that | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
you should get out and leave them to it, and I think the French may | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
get their fingers caught if they are not careful. The Prime Minister | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
is right that we should not get our troops involved, but we should | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
support them with transport aircraft and things like that. | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
that should be the extent of it. Absolutely. We have already heard | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
that one of the planes has been delayed because of technical | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
problems. They are very good aircraft, I am sure it will be got | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
round very quickly. I was surprised the Prime Minister said we would | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
share intelligence with them, because we do share intelligence | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
with the French and a lot of people on anything to do with terrorism. | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
We have worked very closely with all of our allies on anti-terrorist | :04:40. | :04:42. | |
staff, I would hope that is happening all the time, and I'm | :04:42. | :04:47. | |
sure it is. A United Nations back international calls from other | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
parts of the region is expected, but not until the autumn. That | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
could be the difficulty, the French may have to fill that gap. That is | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
the problem, they could find themselves caught up there, and | :04:59. | :05:04. | |
that might be unpopular. I have seen various reports calling this | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
Hollande's war, whereas Lydia was Sarkozy's war. I think he needs to | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
be quite careful if they are getting their fingers in the | :05:13. | :05:20. | |
grinder. But I'm glad they have taken the action, this influences | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
on the whole of the Sahel, an area of worry and concern. I remember | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
talking about it when I was security minister, saying we had to | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
be very careful, and it has grown as a threat, I think. It is now | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
time for our daily quiz, and the question for today is, which of | :05:38. | :05:44. | |
these four are somewhat surreal images is the odd one out? At the | :05:44. | :05:49. | |
end of the show, will find out the correct answer. Do you know what | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
your state pension will be when you retire? If you do not, do not worry, | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
as the system is being replaced with a new system which is meant to | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
be simpler. Anyone who retires after 2017 can forget all the | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
complexities of basic state pension and second state pension. There | :06:06. | :06:12. | |
will be just one single payment for each state pension of. The current | :06:12. | :06:17. | |
basic state pension is �107.45 per week. But most people will receive | :06:17. | :06:20. | |
either a second state pension or a means-tested Pension Credit which | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
would bring their income to at least �142.70. But from 2017, | :06:26. | :06:32. | |
pensioners will receive a single state pension of �144 per week, as | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
long as they paid the full national insurance. The government says it | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
will cost the public purse the same amount, but it will be simpler to | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
administer and there are to those with small pensions. Earlier I | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
spoke to Pensions Minister Steve Webb and began by asking him why he | :06:46. | :06:52. | |
thought it would be simpler. At the moment, we probably have one of the | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
most complicated pensions systems in the world. We have a basic | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
pension that most people get, the state second pension that some get, | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
and then many people do not get enough from that, so they get | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
Pension Credit on top. It is baffling, and if you are at work | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
today, and you want to plan for retirement, you have not got a clue | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
what the government will pay for you. Now there is a basic minimum, | :07:15. | :07:20. | |
and then when you are deciding what you want to save for their age, you | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
know where you will stand. Who is going to benefit the most from | :07:23. | :07:27. | |
these changes? So we are spending the same overall. Some will get | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
more than they would have done, some will get less. Whom are they? | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
The beneficiaries are particularly mothers in their late 50s he spent | :07:35. | :07:42. | |
homer time with their children, which damaged their state pension. | :07:42. | :07:49. | |
-- who spent time at home. Millions of workers face paying more tax | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
through increased national insurance contributions if they are | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
part of occupational schemes. is true, and those are mainly | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
people who work in the public sector who pay less national | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
insurance than other workers now and get lay state pension. They | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
will pay the same national insurance in the future and get the | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
same state pension as everyone else. Although their national insurance | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
will go up a bit, their state pension will go quite substantially, | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
so it is a good deal for public sector workers like those. Guineas | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
current economic times, when unions are battling with the government | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
about pension schemes and contributions, you are asking | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
public sector workers to pay more out of their salary now, even | :08:31. | :08:35. | |
though they may benefit later. So they will have to spend more out of | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
their salary to pay for your changes. So we are talking about | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
2017 at the earliest, and what will happen to those people, nurses and | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
teachers, is then national insurance will rise by 1.4%, but | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
their pension potential, instead of building up the 107, they will have | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
a chance to build up to 144. If that was an investment, it would be | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
a fantastic investment. What about these public sector workers facing | :09:02. | :09:08. | |
higher taxes? Are the unions behind the scheme? I have already started | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
conversations with the unions, and we will go on having that dialogue. | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
None of this changes the pension they will get from their public | :09:15. | :09:19. | |
service team. If you are a teacher or nurse, nothing we are announcing | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
today changes the pension you get from that scheme. You'll pay more | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
national insurance for a bigger state pension. How much money does | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
the Treasury get from these changes? So what happens is reduced | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
national insurance for people who have opted out of the state scheme | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
been terms of rebates runs into many billions of pounds. That is | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
not money we are spending, so it is a windfall to the Treasury, who | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
will have to decide how to spend it, but we are not spending it on | :09:45. | :09:54. | |
bigger pensions. How would you like to see that money come back as | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
windfall being spent? If you're asking for teachers, for example, | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
to pay more in terms of contributions, why not suggest some | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
of that money goes back into education? Just to be clear, the | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
teachers to pay more national insurance will get a bigger pension | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
at the end, so they are in a good position. How would you like the | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
money spent customer kit will be 2017 at the Alise Post -- at the | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
earliest, and it is not my role to speculate on how that money will be | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
spent. It will be available to the Chancellor of the day. We have | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
heard from the IFS, they agree with you in the short term that there | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
will be benefits for many people, but in the long term, 30 or 40 | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
years, people will be receiving a smaller pension relative to what | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
they might have got and that in the basic state pension and second | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
state pension, they will lose out. So the IFS are talking about the | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
middle of this century, that sort of timescale, and we will be | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
spending a much bigger share of national income on pensions after | :10:52. | :10:56. | |
these reforms, but the rate of growth will be slow. We have got an | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
ageing population, we will have to spend more on health, more on care, | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
more on pensions, and what this helps us to do is have a measure of | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
fiscal control decades down the line. For the first 20 years, | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
something like that, we are spending pretty much the same as we | :11:11. | :11:17. | |
are now. With us now is Ros Altmann, director-general of SAGA. Do you | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
welcome these proposals? I very much welcome these proposals. They | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
are not perfect, but they are a huge step forward and long overdue. | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
We have the most ridiculous pensions system that virtually | :11:30. | :11:34. | |
nobody understands, and even the DWP itself often says it is so | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
complicated they cannot work out what your entitlement is going to | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
be. You cannot carry on like that, and the current system penalises | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
any money whose saves and a private pension, potentially, because it | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
rely so heavily on means-testing. There is a fear that public sector | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
workers will have to contribute more, well, they will have to | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
contribute more, a bit more in terms of contributions. Isn't that | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
going to be quite difficult for those people in the current | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
climate? Well, first of all, at the moment, anyone in a final-salary | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
type pension scheme, including public sector workers, gets a | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
discount on their national insurance, because they are not | :12:14. | :12:18. | |
contributing for the full state pension. In future, the potential | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
is that they will no longer get the discount. How that will be handled, | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
we have to wait for the detail, but there is the possibility they might | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
have to pay up to another 1.4% national insurance, but that is in | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
exchange for a much higher state pension. For which she will have to | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
work longer. Well, the age when you get the state pension was already | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
rising. Whether we had this new system or not. They would end up | :12:44. | :12:50. | |
having to work longer. So the increase in the number of years for | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
which you work to state pension age was already set, that is not | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
changing directly as a result of these reforms, and most public | :12:59. | :13:04. | |
sector workers will already have 30-35 years anyway, otherwise they | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
wouldn't have a full working career. Now, we have already had some of | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
our viewers writing in, worried about contributions that they have | :13:14. | :13:19. | |
made into the second state pension. None of those contributions that | :13:19. | :13:26. | |
have been paid up until now will be lost, will they? For up until 2017. | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
No, what the government is saying is that it is not everyone who will | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
have 144 and some people will be brought down to it and some people | :13:33. | :13:38. | |
will be moved up to it. Anyone who was already entitled to more than | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
144 and has paid extra will have that protected. So there will be a | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
transitional period where, instead of getting one payment, people will | :13:46. | :13:51. | |
still get extra above the 144, but it will be the case to anyone who | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
has not got as much as that minimum level will be increased to that, | :13:56. | :14:01. | |
which is mostly women. You know, most men already have more than | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
�144 per week. Most women actually now have less. So it will bring | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
forward the time at which men and women state pension will be | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
equalised. Do you think This is a good idea? His is a practical | :14:15. | :14:20. | |
proposal and solution to what is a complicated system? Well, at the | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
devil is in the detail, and I have not been able to look at that, but | :14:23. | :14:29. | |
anything that simplifies things it is complicated, and sometimes there | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
is a bit of cant about talking about these things in government. | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
There is a real problem that we are all living longer. That is good | :14:37. | :14:44. | |
news! I am about to get to pension age. Far too young! It is very | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
immediate for me. Therefore, we are in a period of austerity, and they | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
are going to be able to get money for the Treasury now in the short | :14:51. | :14:55. | |
term and then look into the future, and one needs to look at the detail, | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
and I think it is important not to run a gonadal where people have | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
spent money and paid for something. That is something that is to move, | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
and occasionally we have seen things like that change, and that | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
must not happen. Pensions are very important to individuals, long-term | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
planning, and some people do not make any provision, and they are | :15:16. | :15:24. | |
going to be in a very difficult The government argues this will | :15:25. | :15:30. | |
give people some certainty. That is the point at the heart of this, | :15:30. | :15:35. | |
which is that ultimately everyone, especially younger generations, for | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
whom this will be more of a reality, everyone will know what the deal is. | :15:41. | :15:51. | |
:15:51. | :15:51. | ||
When you reach state pension age, you will get �144 a week and that | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
is it. If you want to live on more than that, you have to do something | :15:56. | :16:03. | |
about it. Because of means testing at the moment, many moderate | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
earners end up finding they have wasted their money by saving | :16:06. | :16:14. | |
because they are replacing means- tested benefits that their | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
colleagues didn't bother saving. It is not fair and it puts people off | :16:19. | :16:29. | |
:16:29. | :16:30. | ||
saving. I don't think it is fair. At the end of this year, | :16:31. | :16:39. | |
restrictions on immigration from Bulgaria and Romania will be lifted. | :16:39. | :16:41. | |
Yesterday, speaking to Andrew on the Sunday Politics Show, | :16:41. | :16:43. | |
Communities Secretary Eric Pickles admitted that the Government had no | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
idea how many immigrants may arrive from these countries and that any | :16:46. | :16:54. | |
influx could cause big problems. wasn't confident in figures. I have | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
asked for a further explanation, and when I have got that and I feel | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
confident about the figures, I will talk about the figures. Does the | :17:02. | :17:08. | |
figure you have been given worry you? When I am confident about the | :17:08. | :17:14. | |
figures, I will express my confidence or worries. But do you | :17:14. | :17:19. | |
accept that this could present another major increase in housing | :17:19. | :17:24. | |
demand in a country where there is already a major housing shortage? | :17:24. | :17:31. | |
Given that we have got a housing shortage, any influx from Romania | :17:31. | :17:36. | |
and Bulgaria is going to cause problems. It will cause problems | :17:36. | :17:42. | |
not just in terms of the housing market but also on social housing | :17:42. | :17:47. | |
market, but one of the reasons I am not prepared to start a scare story | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
going is that I think we need to be reasonably confident about the | :17:51. | :18:00. | |
figures. Well, our reporter David Thompson is on the green to discuss | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
the issue further with Conservative MP Stewart Jackson and Sunder | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
Katwala, Director of the think tank British Future. It seemed to be the | :18:06. | :18:12. | |
elephant in the room that nobody seems to know the numbers. Philip | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
collarbone as a Conservative MP, and he estimated there can be as | :18:16. | :18:21. | |
many as 300,000 people coming into the country after December. Eric | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
Pickles dismissed that figure, but as we heard he didn't seem able to | :18:26. | :18:32. | |
give his own numbers on what that might be. I am joined by Stewart | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
Jackson, the Conservative MP, who has a bill coming up on Wednesday | :18:36. | :18:46. | |
:18:46. | :18:47. | ||
to try to limit the numbers on immigration, and Sunder Katwala, | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
Director of the think tank British Future. We don't want to make the | :18:52. | :19:01. | |
same mistakes as in 2004, importing low wages, low-skilled workers. We | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
have not done a proper analysis of the impact on the employment market, | :19:05. | :19:11. | |
the delivery of core public services and community cohesion and | :19:11. | :19:13. | |
to is incumbent on the Prime Minister and Eric Pickles to | :19:13. | :19:19. | |
reassure people that we will not have huge numbers, potentially 29 | :19:19. | :19:22. | |
million people from Romania and Bulgaria having three access to | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
this country, and that they will not have a significant impact on | :19:26. | :19:36. | |
:19:36. | :19:36. | ||
the market. How was it that Eric Pickles is unwilling or unable to | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
say how many people will come here? It is fine if they are not putting | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
the number out because they have not dumb are correct studies yet, | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
but it will happen so it is important to do the projections and | :19:48. | :19:54. | |
the work. Last time the government lost trust in 2004 because it was | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
not expecting the scale of what happened. Otherwise it might have | :19:59. | :20:05. | |
done the preparation better. This will be different because Polish | :20:05. | :20:09. | |
people could come to Britain but they could not work in Germany or | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
France. We have to work out - we have not got crystal ball - how | :20:14. | :20:20. | |
many people we think might come to Britain, to which areas, and if | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
there are aspects of the system that need to change. It is | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
difficult to change the rules of the EU without the bigger debate of | :20:27. | :20:32. | |
whether we want to be in it. can have your bill in parliament on | :20:32. | :20:37. | |
Wednesday, not only that, this is EU law and you can't do anything | :20:37. | :20:42. | |
about it. For the thing is that my view is it is not the same as 2004 | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
because there was no political will by the Labour government then to | :20:46. | :20:51. | |
vary the free movement directives. We can review it on the impact on | :20:51. | :20:57. | |
the economy, on public good, public security, the impact on the health | :20:57. | :21:05. | |
service. It is not set in stone. It is a live piece of EU Law. My bill | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
was not a completely get rid of the free movement directives but to | :21:08. | :21:13. | |
look at it from a British perspective so there is plenty | :21:13. | :21:17. | |
ministers can do. Foreigners as they can bring in a scheme to make | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
sure we know who is in the country, look at criminal records, and look | :21:22. | :21:27. | |
at agricultural producers. What has to happen to make Romania and | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
Bulgarian immigration work for Britain? Having an independent | :21:30. | :21:35. | |
study of what you are expecting will happen, looking at the policy | :21:35. | :21:44. | |
areas that you know are open. Then we need to work out how we can | :21:44. | :21:49. | |
manage the pressures. The bigger debate of whether we want to be in | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
the European Union or not, this will happen in January and the | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
political parties need to have that debate so it is handled in the | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
interests of British society. We know that Polish people came here | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
and worked hard and did something for the economy but we were not | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
expecting that. Back to you in the studio. Before | :22:10. | :22:19. | |
you go, it is it's snowing? If just a little bit. This is not Duncroft. | :22:19. | :22:26. | |
Before we move on, the last government was criticised for not | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
preparing Great Britain well enough when people from Poland were coming | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
over from work. Do you think we need to look more closely at this | :22:35. | :22:41. | |
now? I think the scale was not anticipated and we need greater | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
clarity of what is involved. There is no doubt people in this country | :22:45. | :22:53. | |
are concerned and worried - are people really making claims when | :22:53. | :22:58. | |
they are working that they could not get in their own country? What | :22:58. | :23:01. | |
impact will that have on my children? These people are willing | :23:01. | :23:07. | |
to work for a lot less here because they are relatively poor. These | :23:07. | :23:11. | |
issues worry people and we need greater clarity of the truth so we | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
can then make decisions about what to do across-the-board to try and | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
resolve that. Do you agree with Stewart Jackson, who was saying | :23:19. | :23:24. | |
Britain should be looking to change the directives or restrict what | :23:24. | :23:30. | |
people can claim when they come here? I wouldn't go as far as | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
saying that blankly. We need to look at the totality and make | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
decisions about how to protect our own people and people in this | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
country, and what the best thing to do is. I'm also interested in what | :23:44. | :23:50. | |
other countries in Europe do. I don't think we want to be out of | :23:50. | :23:56. | |
step with that, because otherwise clearly they will come to us rather | :23:56. | :24:06. | |
:24:06. | :24:07. | ||
than going to other countries to work. We need to be clear. | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
In two months' time the people of the Falkland islands will decide in | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
a referendum whether they want to remain British. The islands have | :24:13. | :24:15. | |
belonged to Britain since 1833. Recently Argentina has been upping | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
the pressure on Britain to give them up. But more than 30 years | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
since we fought to protect them from Argentine invasion, is there | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
really a case for us to keep hold of the Falklands? Susana Mendonsa | :24:25. | :24:35. | |
:24:35. | :24:36. | ||
has been speaking to one man who We went to war over them and they | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
are still proving a source of tension between Britain and | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
Argentina, but as the people of the Falkland Islands prepare to vote on | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
whether they want to stay British, some people think it is time to | :24:47. | :24:52. | |
consider giving the islands up. the end, a deal will have to be | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
done, just as this whole thing began because the Conservative | :24:56. | :25:01. | |
government in the day was trying to do a deal with the Argentinians. | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
after war broke out in 1982 there was little prospect of a deal with | :25:05. | :25:10. | |
Argentina. Government papers from the time offer an insight into the | :25:10. | :25:14. | |
impact of the invasion. When you sift through these documents, you | :25:14. | :25:19. | |
get a real sense of how important the Falkland Islands were to | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
Margaret Thatcher. She talks about the moment when she found out the | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
islands had been invaded and describes it as the worst moment of | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
her life. He was some correspondence between herself and | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
Ronald Reagan, and she basically tells him that she would do the | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
same if Alaska had been threatened in the same way. While she enjoyed | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
American support back then, the UK's international interests could | :25:44. | :25:51. | |
now be damaged for its support for the British outpost. The cost of | :25:51. | :25:57. | |
Obama's attitude to the British Empire is not what Ronald Reagan | :25:57. | :26:03. | |
and Margaret Thatcher would have put together, and this is a long | :26:03. | :26:08. | |
running difficulty. Apart from that, colonialism at the UN has a rather | :26:08. | :26:14. | |
toxic word. It doesn't do the current British attitude any good | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
and it doesn't do our trade prospects for the future any good | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
in Latin America. Recent oil exploration in the Falklands has | :26:23. | :26:27. | |
led to increased tensions with Argentina. Last year this stand-off | :26:27. | :26:33. | |
was caught on camera between David Cameron and Argentina's President. | :26:33. | :26:38. | |
She accused Britain of 19th century colonialism, in an open letter that | :26:38. | :26:43. | |
received this response. It is 30 years ago, for heaven's sake the | :26:43. | :26:49. | |
Cold War ended 25 years ago - can we move on a bit? Then there is the | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
question of how much it costs to maintain a military presence in the | :26:53. | :27:03. | |
:27:03. | :27:14. | ||
Falklands. The MoD put it at more Nobody is asking us whether we want | :27:14. | :27:20. | |
to continue paying the money to defend the Falklands, or to offer | :27:20. | :27:27. | |
this continuing lifestyles to them into perpetuity. For the Falklands | :27:27. | :27:37. | |
:27:37. | :27:37. | ||
war ended in 72 days, but the war of words over its future continues. | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
Well our guest of the day, Admiral West, defended the Falkland islands. | :27:40. | :27:43. | |
In fact his ship, HMS Ardent, was sunk during the 1982 conflict. | :27:43. | :27:48. | |
We're also joined by the Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn. What is your case | :27:48. | :27:52. | |
for keeping the Falklands? I think the people who live there, and | :27:53. | :27:59. | |
indeed I have a friend over who runs a farm - one of the fifth | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
generation who live there - and the people who live there firmly wished | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
to remain in the circumstances they are at the moment with a | :28:06. | :28:10. | |
considerable amount of local government control but also under | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
the overarching control of the UK and the Queen. That is what they | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
want and I think they have a right to self determination. This talk of | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
colonialism, if you look historically the Spanish settlers | :28:22. | :28:29. | |
in South America who revolted from Spain in 1816, they embarked on a | :28:29. | :28:36. | |
major piece of colonisation, up into the northern part towards | :28:36. | :28:41. | |
Paraguay, almost fighting against Chile. They sent an armed party to | :28:41. | :28:47. | |
the Falkland Islands and they were the colonialists innocence. | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
shouldn't they have a right to self-determination? They can have a | :28:51. | :28:57. | |
vote, and I have no doubt they will vote to remain British. Some issues | :28:57. | :29:02. | |
need to be discussed. Britain is very keen on self-determination for | :29:02. | :29:06. | |
the islanders but has spent the last 40 years preventing the Jay | :29:06. | :29:11. | |
Goss islanders from returning to their own territories so there is | :29:11. | :29:17. | |
double standards there. Low as concentrate on the Falkland Islands | :29:17. | :29:23. | |
themselves. If they vote, isn't that the end of the story? | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
because relations with Argentina will be difficult, a possible | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
blockade, and that relations with the whole of Latin America. Other | :29:31. | :29:38. | |
situations like this, for example the dispute between Finland and | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Sweden were sorted out by some degree of joint administration | :29:42. | :29:46. | |
while retaining the nationality. It has been done with hung Kong, to | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
some extent Gibraltar. There is another way forward other than | :29:51. | :29:56. | |
spending more money and a potential catastrophic conflict which will | :29:56. | :30:01. | |
damage our relations. Do you see a conflict being on the cards? I hope | :30:01. | :30:05. | |
not, but the more the rhetoric built up There is that danger. | :30:05. | :30:15. | |
you think there is a conflict on That did not think they are capable | :30:15. | :30:21. | |
or would intend to do military action. I believe the islands are | :30:21. | :30:26. | |
well enough defended. It the airfield was captured, we would be | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
incapable of taking it back, and that is a different issue, but I | :30:30. | :30:34. | |
think the danger with raising the rhetoric, and the reason that she | :30:34. | :30:40. | |
is doing this is because she is very unpopular with in Argentina. | :30:40. | :30:46. | |
She has got mid- term elections coming up, they have got huge | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
problems in their economy, their training ship was impounded. She | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
has had to hire a British plane to visit other countries because if | :30:54. | :30:57. | |
she flew in one of hers, it would be impounded, because she has | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
messed up the economy so much. It is a way of taking people's eyes | :31:01. | :31:07. | |
off that. And that may suitor in that case. If you use that rhetoric, | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
the problem is you might get a splinter group who would do | :31:10. | :31:16. | |
something stupid, and rather like back in 1982, when Galtieri used | :31:16. | :31:20. | |
this as a way of taking people's eyes of the dreadful things, then | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
you end up with 22 of your boys being killed, as I did. Not for the | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
first time as a leader tried to use diversionary tactics, so it is in | :31:30. | :31:32. | |
her interests to escalate this, and it makes it difficult for the | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
British government. In the same way that it was in the interest of | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
Margaret Thatcher to divert away from economic issues. There is a | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
letter being produced by five Nobel Peace Prize winners who suggest | :31:44. | :31:48. | |
that without changing the question of nationality, there is room for | :31:48. | :31:52. | |
discussion and debate as the UN have called for. Why can't we | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
respond to that at work on that basis, rather than upping the ante | :31:56. | :32:00. | |
and spending more money and arms? Couldn't you start negotiating? | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
do not think we are upping the ante, I think they are. But we are not | :32:05. | :32:10. | |
even discussing it. The police said we will not discuss the nationality | :32:10. | :32:16. | |
aspect, and there will be a referendum there. -- we said. When | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
the despotic regime collapsed and they became democratic, there was | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
an opportunity for them to extend a hand, build up close links, and | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
they did not do that, and that is so unfortunate, and instead they | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
are looking and thinking, gosh, they have got quite a lot of money | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
from the fishing revenue, there might be oil, we are broke, there | :32:37. | :32:42. | |
is going to be this referendum, and all of these things are raised the | :32:42. | :32:48. | |
issue. What about the issue of oil revenues? It has not been found, so | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
let's hold on that, but it would be a benefit to whichever companies | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
get hold of the concessions, and the tax income, and we get very | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
little at the moment from the Falklands. There's obviously a | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
possibility of some kind of arrangement where a number of | :33:03. | :33:07. | |
people could exploit the oil reserves. In 1989, some Falkland | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
Islands councillors started a dialogue with Argentina. Is it the | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
end of the world if we have a dialogue with a very large | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
neighbouring country? When did benefit the Falkland islanders to | :33:19. | :33:22. | |
have a bit more certainty that they are not going to have his perennial | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
threat because it suits the Argentinians domestically? -- when | :33:26. | :33:35. | |
did. She and David Cameron and the government holed out at hand? -- | :33:35. | :33:41. | |
shouldn't. Not when they are doing what they are doing. Although this | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
sort of follow along, South America, a lot of them do not like the | :33:45. | :33:49. | |
Argentine. Chile and Brazil are not against the UK to the extent that | :33:49. | :33:54. | |
people might say they are. Pinochet supported Thatcher, the current | :33:54. | :33:58. | |
Chilean government would not. are much moe pro than people might | :33:58. | :34:05. | |
Reports in the papers, defence chiefs preparing contingency plans | :34:05. | :34:10. | |
to defend the Falklands, additional troops, another warship. Coming up | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
to the referendum, because of all the talk, the loose Talk From the | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
President of the Argentine, I think it makes sense to have | :34:17. | :34:23. | |
contingencies in place. The Falkland islanders pay big chunk of | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
their defence costs. If it did happened, if oil were found, they | :34:27. | :34:30. | |
would be able to pay all of it. It is right we should defend these | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
people, because we are able to do it. In the case of Hong Kong, we | :34:34. | :34:40. | |
could not have done it. We could do it, and I think it is right. | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
that note, I will say goodbye to Jeremy Corbyn and Lord West, thank | :34:45. | :34:47. | |
you. Over the weekend, there was more | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
discussion about Britain's place in Europe. Eric Pickles increase the | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
pressure on the Prime Minister, saying that the UK should remain a | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
member of the EU at any price and that he would vote against his | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
party on the issue if you felt it was in the national interest. David | :35:02. | :35:05. | |
Cameron was doing the rounds this morning and was asked about the | :35:05. | :35:09. | |
thorny issue of a referendum on membership. He told John Humphrys | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
he wanted to give the British people a referendum, but only in | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
the right circumstances. There are opportunities for us to make | :35:17. | :35:21. | |
changes, and when we make those changes, a new settlement, we | :35:21. | :35:25. | |
should make there is consent for that settlement. I will be setting | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
out exactly how in my speech, but I'm not against a referenda. Are | :35:30. | :35:34. | |
you in favour? In some cases, particularly in this case. The | :35:34. | :35:42. | |
principle should be this. If you are fundamentally changing the | :35:42. | :35:46. | |
relationship in Europe, then you should be having a referendum. | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
have just said the referendum is changing -- the relationship is | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
changing, so it follows that there will be a referendum, and the | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
question that follows that, whether it be and in Out referendum? You'll | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
have to wait for the speech for the full details. But you are not | :36:02. | :36:06. | |
ruling that out. I want to give people a proper choice. If we had | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
an in-out referendum tomorrow, or very shortly, I do not think that | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
would be the right answer, for the simple reason that we would be | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
giving people a false choice, because right now a lot of people | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
would say, well, I would like to be in Europe but I'm not happy with | :36:21. | :36:27. | |
every aspect of the relationship. That is my view, so I think an in- | :36:27. | :36:35. | |
out referendum today is a false choice. I have been joined by | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
Conservative MP Margot James, Labour MP Pat McFadden, and Greg | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
Mulholland of the Liberal Democrats. Would you like to see an in-out | :36:44. | :36:49. | |
referendum? Not at the moment, but I do think the ultimate referendum, | :36:49. | :36:53. | |
it looks likely that we will have one at some point, and it will have | :36:53. | :36:57. | |
to address the issue. When you think it should be? Well, it is | :36:57. | :37:01. | |
unlikely to be this side of the next general election, so we would | :37:01. | :37:05. | |
be looking at after 2015, and I am concerned that will create a huge | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
amount of uncertainty which might affect investment into this country | :37:10. | :37:14. | |
by global corporations. What do you think business at the moment is | :37:14. | :37:18. | |
thinking? We have spoken to global businessmen over the last few weeks | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
to say, without that certainty, they cannot plan, they do not know | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
whether to base their companies here, or parts of their companies | :37:26. | :37:29. | |
here. Is David Cameron making a huge mistake not giving that | :37:29. | :37:36. | |
certainty? Exactly, that is the point. Business do not want that | :37:36. | :37:38. | |
uncertainty, and I am very concerned about foreign investment | :37:38. | :37:42. | |
into this country. We are the number-one destination for foreign | :37:43. | :37:45. | |
investment in the whole of Europe, and we want to hang on to that, it | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
is very much in our interests to hang on to that position. What do | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
you want David Cameron to say? want the Prime Minister to confirm | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
that Britain's place should be at the heart of Europe and that we | :37:57. | :38:03. | |
should be using our position as a very important member of the EU to | :38:03. | :38:08. | |
influence, to get changed. I agree that change is needed, but also to | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
drive forward the market which is so in the interests of this country. | :38:12. | :38:16. | |
How confident are you that he can renegotiate Britain's relationship | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
with the EU? I think there are areas where there is a chance of | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
renegotiation. Which ones? Do you want to see, as some have said, an | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
effective veto a financial services regulation, and also of the Working | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
Time Directive? Financial services and the Working Time Directive are | :38:34. | :38:41. | |
areas I would like to see a loosening of EU power, yes. That is | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
possible, Pat McFadden, to renegotiate our relationship, to | :38:45. | :38:49. | |
repatriate powers in those areas? do not think the agenda set out by | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
that fresh Start group is going to be achieved. I think the | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
Conservatives are either being naive or perhaps even dishonest | :38:58. | :39:02. | |
about the amount of repatriation, renegotiation that we are likely to | :39:02. | :39:08. | |
see. Our objective should not be to go along with a menu which, if you | :39:08. | :39:13. | |
like, dissolves the common rules. Our objective should be different, | :39:13. | :39:18. | |
it should be to reinforce the single market, to press for a | :39:18. | :39:22. | |
growth agenda, around things like transport, communications. The | :39:22. | :39:27. | |
future for the UK and Europe has to be about how to get growth and jobs, | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
and my fear about the current discussion is that it is bringing | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
uncertainty, casting doubt over our relationship with the EU. It is | :39:35. | :39:39. | |
about inward investment, but it is also about businesses here. They | :39:39. | :39:44. | |
want to know the future, too. Should the Labour Party promised a | :39:44. | :39:49. | |
referendum before the next election? I am not keen on having | :39:49. | :39:55. | |
this referendum. Our tour. I think it will lead to uncertainty. I am | :39:56. | :39:59. | |
certainly not keen on announcing it when we do not know what the future | :40:00. | :40:04. | |
shape is, what the question is. Even David Cameron has not told us | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
whether he is proposing a referendum on a renegotiated | :40:07. | :40:13. | |
package... Well, that is what he has implied. Or whether it is a | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
simple in-out question, as many people want. I think there's a lot | :40:17. | :40:21. | |
of nostalgia about this discussion. They would like to see the UK as | :40:22. | :40:26. | |
some kind of island version of Switzerland or Norway. I do not | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
believe that is the right economic or political future for the UK. | :40:30. | :40:34. | |
Liberal Democrats went into the 2010 election promising and in that | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
referendum. Will Nick Clegg promise that now going into 2015? We will | :40:39. | :40:42. | |
have to see what commitments are made when the manifesto is written. | :40:42. | :40:48. | |
But if you promised it in 2010, why not in 2015? Can we be clear what | :40:48. | :40:52. | |
the coalition has achieved? It is the first time this has ever been | :40:52. | :40:56. | |
achieved, and if there are any transfers of powers to Brussels, | :40:56. | :40:59. | |
there will be a referendum. That has never happened before, and that | :40:59. | :41:03. | |
has been delivered through the coalition agreement. I think that | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
is very important, and I think it will be better to reiterate that | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
message to the British people and get on with dealing with the | :41:10. | :41:14. | |
economic crisis here and supporting the situation in Europe. So you do | :41:14. | :41:18. | |
not personally want a referendum. You think it would lead to | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
instability. If there was any suggestion of transfer of powers, | :41:22. | :41:25. | |
there would have to now be a referendum, and that is right, but | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
this is not the right time to be talking about an in-out referendum, | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
because we are in the middle of the most serious economic crisis since | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
the Second World War. The priority for the country, the government and | :41:37. | :41:41. | |
business is for us to deal with that. You say they are areas that | :41:41. | :41:45. | |
could be renegotiated, and if not, where would you stand then? | :41:45. | :41:50. | |
most fertile ground lies in the areas where it is not just Britain, | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
it is other member states, it would be in their interests to have a | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
reduction in some of the influence over the social chapter, over the | :41:58. | :42:01. | |
Working Time Directive and that sort of thing. There is no | :42:01. | :42:05. | |
indication from the leading lights in the commission and in the | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
Parliament to say that would be achievable. If you open Pandora's | :42:09. | :42:12. | |
box for one country, you would have to do it for all member states. | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
think it is a bit premature to write off the chances of getting | :42:15. | :42:20. | |
powers back from the EU. I do agree that it is going to be difficult, | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
and the Commission are not going to want to see a reduction of Central | :42:24. | :42:29. | |
Powers, but there are, as I say, some areas where other member | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
states in whose interests it would be to have less Brussels's | :42:32. | :42:38. | |
interference. But there is no guarantee. No. If the powers are | :42:38. | :42:41. | |
not repatriated, which are like to see Britain come out of the EU or | :42:41. | :42:47. | |
stay? No, I would not want to see Britain come out of the EU. So you | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
do not agree with Eric Pickles that we should stay at any price? | :42:52. | :42:56. | |
not exactly sure what he said, but you asked me a straightforward | :42:56. | :43:03. | |
question, what I want to leave the EU, and the answer is no. Eric | :43:03. | :43:08. | |
Pickles said that the UK should not stay in the EU at any price, sorry, | :43:08. | :43:13. | |
should not stay. Of course not at any price, but there are | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
negotiations going on all the time between member states and the UK | :43:16. | :43:21. | |
and Brussels, and I'm sure that the Prime Minister will achieve enough | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
in order for most people to be comfortable with the idea that the | :43:26. | :43:29. | |
benefits of EU membership outweigh the risks of withdrawal. Don't you | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
think it is right for the government to be pushing for a | :43:33. | :43:37. | |
better, better sort of relationship as far as Britain as concerned? If | :43:37. | :43:42. | |
it can repatriate powers, then it should. I think Margaret is right | :43:42. | :43:47. | |
to say that the way that the EU advances national interest is to | :43:47. | :43:52. | |
build alliances, to reach agreement with those who have not common | :43:52. | :43:55. | |
interests, but the government's stands in the last two years has | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
been moving away from that. We seem very semi-detached in European | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
discussions, we seem not to care about that, and the whole thing is | :44:03. | :44:08. | |
now being governed by internal political considerations, fear of | :44:08. | :44:11. | |
the rise of UKIP, and what we have got here now is a tension between | :44:11. | :44:15. | |
the domestic interests of the Conservative Party and the national | :44:15. | :44:18. | |
interests of the country, and it is in the national interest to stay at | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
the heart of these discussions. is Monday, so what has this week | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
got in store at Westminster? This afternoon the NHS chief executive | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
and medical director appear before the Public Accounts Committee to be | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
quizzed on efficiency savings in the health service in England. | :44:33. | :44:38. | |
Tomorrow sees the start of the trial of Chris Huhne and his ex- | :44:38. | :44:41. | |
wife on charges of perverting the course of justice. Wednesday sees | :44:41. | :44:46. | |
the launch of the Conservative bright blue group's new book, with | :44:46. | :44:56. | |
the title Tory Modernisation, expected to suggest relaxing | :44:56. | :45:01. | |
planning, and permitting profit- making companies to run schools. On | :45:01. | :45:04. | |
Thursday, William Hague will make a key speech during a visit to | :45:04. | :45:08. | |
Australia. On Friday, the Bishop of Liverpool will host a summit of | :45:08. | :45:12. | |
large cities to challenge what he says is the Government's unfair | :45:12. | :45:22. | |
:45:22. | :45:22. | ||
distribution of local authority Joining us, all the right from the | :45:22. | :45:31. | |
Independent and James Forsyth from the Spectator. -- Oliver Wright. | :45:31. | :45:34. | |
There is mounting concern about what the Prime Minister is going to | :45:34. | :45:39. | |
say and how the party will react. We have known the date of this | :45:39. | :45:43. | |
speech for ages, but there are still hasn't been a meeting of the | :45:43. | :45:47. | |
Conservative political Cabinet about what David Cameron will say. | :45:47. | :45:52. | |
We know they are meeting on Wednesday, but we know the speech | :45:52. | :45:56. | |
is already written. Why has this been trailed for so long? Wouldn't | :45:56. | :46:00. | |
it have been better to have just given a speech without the debate | :46:00. | :46:07. | |
beforehand? I think that is right. David Cameron is a Conservative | :46:07. | :46:11. | |
Euro-sceptic in the old sense of the word, whereas much of his party | :46:11. | :46:14. | |
is far to the right of him, and frankly they would be perfectly | :46:14. | :46:19. | |
happy to see Britain out of Europe altogether unless he can negotiate | :46:19. | :46:27. | |
some radical changes, which I think it is quite some clear whether he | :46:27. | :46:30. | |
wants or he is prepared to do. There it is the key, if you like, | :46:30. | :46:35. | |
the pivotal moment in terms of whether Britain can actually | :46:35. | :46:45. | |
:46:45. | :46:48. | ||
repatriate these powers, and basing the whole speech on a larger if | :46:48. | :46:55. | |
makes it difficult. The mainstream Tory opinion on Europe wants a | :46:55. | :46:59. | |
different relationship with the EU, and he needs to at least be | :46:59. | :47:03. | |
prepared to suggest that if the EU will not give you what you want you | :47:03. | :47:08. | |
have to be prepared to leave. That is a Rubicon David Cameron is not | :47:08. | :47:11. | |
prepared to cross because he is concerned about what the | :47:11. | :47:14. | |
international reaction would be, but it is hard to see how he will | :47:14. | :47:20. | |
get what he wants if his opening line of negotiation is we really | :47:20. | :47:27. | |
want to stay in the EU, but please can we have some powers back? | :47:27. | :47:32. | |
of this leads to talk of Europe, exactly what David Cameron wants to | :47:32. | :47:37. | |
avoid. Yes, but it has come back and you can't help but feel David | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
Cameron has put himself into a position where this is going to be | :47:41. | :47:45. | |
one of the most dominant arguments in the run-up to the next election, | :47:45. | :47:48. | |
and being in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, who are much | :47:49. | :47:54. | |
more disposed to Europe than him, that spells all sorts of problems. | :47:54. | :47:59. | |
It is possible that David Cameron, as he said this morning in his | :47:59. | :48:02. | |
interview, is in tune with what the majority of the British public | :48:02. | :48:08. | |
thinks, but not in tune with what the rest of his party thinks. | :48:08. | :48:14. | |
about the television debate? Could it happen, but earlier - is that | :48:15. | :48:20. | |
right? Yes, I think we will see the Tories are pushing for a David | :48:20. | :48:25. | |
Cameron Ed Miliband head to head for the new broadcasting rules | :48:25. | :48:30. | |
chicken, so you would not have to include the Lib Dems or UKIP. | :48:30. | :48:33. | |
this is because David Cameron said it might take over the whole | :48:33. | :48:38. | |
campaign? It requires the Conservatives, and their strongest | :48:38. | :48:43. | |
card in the next election is who do you want to be Prime Minister - | :48:43. | :48:49. | |
David Cameron or Ed Miliband? They will try to write the Lib Dems out | :48:49. | :48:55. | |
of the script. The interesting thing which we may see is a change | :48:55. | :49:03. | |
in format of the debate. Last time there were a lot of rules, but this | :49:03. | :49:07. | |
time aids to both their leaders think their guy is good at town | :49:07. | :49:11. | |
hall debates with more interaction with the audience. David Cameron | :49:11. | :49:17. | |
has been going round the country doing his talks, and people close | :49:18. | :49:22. | |
to him say that when he does this directly he connects with the | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
audience and they are both pretty convinced they guide will trump the | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
other guy. We might see a more innovative way forward which will | :49:30. | :49:36. | |
be better than last time. So on thing to look forward to. I will | :49:36. | :49:45. | |
let you go. Thank you. Only last week Nick Clegg and David Cameron | :49:45. | :49:47. | |
were standing shoulder-to-shoulder reaffirming their commitment to the | :49:47. | :49:53. | |
Coalition. But today sees a test of that unity. A Labour amendment in | :49:53. | :49:56. | |
the House of Lords this afternoon will seek to delay plans to redraw | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
parliamentary constituencies until 2018. And Lib Dem peers are | :49:59. | :50:02. | |
expected to support it, scuppering Conservative hopes of obtaining a | :50:02. | :50:05. | |
20-seat advantage over the other parties at the next election. So, | :50:05. | :50:08. | |
are the boundary changes now a dead duck? Or can the PM persuade | :50:08. | :50:10. | |
Democratic Unionists and Scottish Nationalists to support it in the | :50:10. | :50:20. | |
Commons? I have my three MPs first ball. Margot James, if this goes | :50:20. | :50:25. | |
through the efforts to change the boundaries are over. And we are not | :50:25. | :50:32. | |
so optimistic as we were, and it is quite courageous. It still requires | :50:32. | :50:35. | |
many more votes to elect a Conservative government than a | :50:35. | :50:38. | |
Labour government. The system is wrong and we are trying to reduce | :50:38. | :50:43. | |
the number of MPs, which has a lot of public support, and it looks | :50:43. | :50:48. | |
like we will be defeated by draconian laws this afternoon. | :50:48. | :50:51. | |
you think you will be on the public's side when you vote to | :50:51. | :50:57. | |
reduce the number of MPs to 600? certainly did we are acting in the | :50:57. | :51:01. | |
interest of the country because the boundary changes were introduced at | :51:01. | :51:05. | |
the wrong time and they were the wrong set of proposals, which were | :51:05. | :51:09. | |
there to simply advantage the Conservative Party rather than to | :51:09. | :51:13. | |
deal with the genuine issue that Margot James has said there, the | :51:13. | :51:18. | |
number of votes. I said all way through, I tabled an amendment when | :51:18. | :51:25. | |
this was going through the House of Commons doing exactly what was done | :51:25. | :51:30. | |
today, and this is the right thing to do. It was an absurd time to | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
push it through, before the next general election. We need a | :51:34. | :51:38. | |
sensible, longer review with more sensible rules and I think we could | :51:38. | :51:45. | |
get more agreement. Gerrymandering going on? At some not. The boundary | :51:45. | :51:52. | |
commissioner has been sitting for two years. Surely within a | :51:52. | :51:58. | |
parliament there is time. At the moment it is not fair and we have | :51:58. | :52:03. | |
too many MPs, we are trying to reduce the constituencies and make | :52:03. | :52:08. | |
them more often equal size. What do you say to that? The rules are | :52:08. | :52:14. | |
simply not there to deal with, as I say, the problem is that the rules | :52:14. | :52:18. | |
were far too prescriptive and tied the hands of the Boundary | :52:18. | :52:23. | |
Commission and exempted some islands and not others. The have | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
been accused of opportunism because it has been a gift for you, keeping | :52:27. | :52:31. | |
the rules and the boundaries as they are because potentially the | :52:31. | :52:37. | |
Tories could have gained 20 seat at the next election. The important | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
thing about the amendment is that it is not just a Labour amendment, | :52:41. | :52:45. | |
it has support from at least some of the Liberal Democrats, some | :52:45. | :52:50. | |
Welsh nationalists, and some crossbenchers so there is a broader | :52:50. | :52:54. | |
view to do this before the next election. You admit there is | :52:54. | :52:58. | |
nothing wrong with unequal constituencies though? What | :52:58. | :53:03. | |
troubled me in the draft proposals was there was no account taken of | :53:03. | :53:06. | |
traditional community boundaries so you had seats crossing city | :53:06. | :53:13. | |
boundaries all over the place. We need to be wary of one point - the | :53:13. | :53:17. | |
Conservative Party are desperate to construct an alliance with | :53:17. | :53:20. | |
nationalists, unionists, any alliance they can to get this | :53:20. | :53:25. | |
through the House of Commons. We have got a referendum on Scottish | :53:25. | :53:29. | |
independence coming up and I do not want to see any kind of backstairs | :53:29. | :53:33. | |
deal between David Cameron and the SNP which is not in the interest of | :53:33. | :53:36. | |
the country to push through something which he believes is in | :53:36. | :53:41. | |
the interests of the Conservative Party. I can't conceive of any such | :53:41. | :53:46. | |
deal. The Conservative Party and the Prime Minister are dedicated to | :53:46. | :53:54. | |
maintaining the Union. Do you think there will be any offer? Yes, we | :53:54. | :53:59. | |
are very keen to get these boundary reviews through, for the reasons I | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
said. What's could be offered? implication was some deal over the | :54:04. | :54:11. | |
referendum and I can't believe that would come to pass. Let's go back | :54:11. | :54:15. | |
to the coalition agreement - the deal was that you would back this. | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
The deal was we would back a redrawing of the boundaries but we | :54:20. | :54:24. | |
did not specify the rules and if you look at the coalition agreement | :54:24. | :54:29. | |
it says there a lot of areas where we will do something but not how we | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
do it. I don't necessarily think backbenchers should. We should be | :54:35. | :54:40. | |
clear that reform of the House of Lords, which has one of the few on | :54:40. | :54:43. | |
elected chambers and the world, one of only a handful of countries, it | :54:43. | :54:47. | |
still has people in there simply because their parents and the | :54:47. | :54:51. | |
Conservatives wouldn't back that. I'm afraid it was quite right when | :54:51. | :55:01. | |
:55:01. | :55:03. | ||
it likes of Wigan -- when the Nick Clegg said we would not back the | :55:03. | :55:11. | |
changes. We can go back - was everything in the coalition | :55:11. | :55:15. | |
agreement right? Was it specify sufficiently? I would say not | :55:15. | :55:19. | |
necessarily but they did a very good job in the limited time they | :55:19. | :55:23. | |
had. Is it right the boundary changes have been delayed? We are | :55:23. | :55:33. | |
:55:33. | :55:39. | ||
dealing with the economic crisis, it is. Earlier in the programme, we | :55:39. | :55:43. | |
set the following quiz. The question was which of these four | :55:43. | :55:53. | |
images is the odd one out? So does anybody know the correct answer? | :55:53. | :55:57. | |
One hasn't got any drawing in but I suspect it is more complicated than | :55:57. | :56:05. | |
that. You are right, in that. Let's have a look at that so-called | :56:05. | :56:09. | |
signature in the corner. This is the signature of the new Treasury | :56:09. | :56:15. | |
Secretary in the United States. The others are our Rome doodles of his | :56:15. | :56:19. | |
signature. It does looks like the ridiculous. One person who might be | :56:19. | :56:29. | |
able to talk about this signature is the Chairman of the British | :56:29. | :56:32. | |
Institute of Graphologists, Adam Brand, who joins us now. What can | :56:32. | :56:38. | |
you say about this? And it has a lot of meaning. Signatures are the | :56:38. | :56:41. | |
public image, and when you are looking up personality through the | :56:41. | :56:44. | |
handwriting you do need to see the handwriting and not just the | :56:44. | :56:51. | |
signature. A man's signature has settled down by the time he is 18 | :56:51. | :56:56. | |
or 19, but if you look at the way the loops have formed, they are | :56:56. | :57:00. | |
known as arcades, a bridge type structure. This is someone who | :57:00. | :57:07. | |
wants to hide his motive. It is quite a secretive type of writing. | :57:07. | :57:12. | |
The let's have a brief look at some of the other signatures. We can see | :57:12. | :57:20. | |
David Cameron, the Prime Minister. What does that say to you? If you | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
look at the first letter of each name, when you look at the capital | :57:24. | :57:34. | |
:57:34. | :57:36. | ||
letters, look at the power of the D against the C. Small writing like | :57:36. | :57:42. | |
that in the middle zone is a sign of consideration. You can read so | :57:43. | :57:49. | |
much into somebody's signature? Let's look at Ed Miliband next, the | :57:49. | :57:57. | |
Labour leader. Short? That is a sort of "everybody knows who I am" | :57:57. | :58:05. | |
because it is illegible. Is that how you would describe him?! | :58:05. | :58:10. | |
angle at the top of the second stroke, in the upper zone, that | :58:10. | :58:16. | |
means somebody has quite strong ideas. The other thing is that he | :58:16. | :58:20. | |
has an element of self- confidence because of the area underneath the | :58:20. | :58:25. | |
signature. If very briefly, Nick Clegg. What is this screaming out | :58:25. | :58:31. | |
to you? You see how disconnected it is, so again he wants to make | :58:31. | :58:37. | |
public impact. Disconnected writing comes from people who are quite | :58:37. | :58:42. | |
intuitive. The problem is this is just a signature, but writing is | :58:42. | :58:47. |