21/03/2016 Daily Politics


21/03/2016

The latest political news, interviews and debate. Jo Coburn is joined by Chuka Umunna and David Davis.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

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As the Conservative Party descends into civil war,

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will David Cameron be able to quell the unrest as he prepares to tell

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the Commons that he still believes in compassionate Conservatism?

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A "narrow attack on working age benefits".

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Iain Duncan Smith's parting words are a gift for Labour,

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The deal allowing migrants arriving in Greece to be sent back to Turkey

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came into effect yesterday but is it deterring people from crossing?

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And how doing this could land you with a ?100 fine

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or even a criminal record.

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All that in the next hour and with us for the whole programme

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today two former leadership hopefuls for their respective parties.

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The Conservative MP, David Davis, and Labour's Chuka Umunna who's

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fresh from the launch of his All-Party Parliamentary Group

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First this morning, leaving the EU could cost ?100 billion to the UK

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economy and cause the loss of almost a million jobs,

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according to a report commissioned by the Confederation

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The analysis by the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers

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says household incomes could be between ?2,100 and ?3,700 lower

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If that isn't a project fear, I don't know what is. It is perfectly

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legitimate to point out the risks involved in us leaving, but of

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course the campaign that I am a part of, hands on the table, it also

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telling the story of things we stand to gain through continued

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membership. The CBI represent over 150,000 businesses employing 7

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million people in our country. They are pointing out that if we leave it

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could cost up to 100 billion and we could lose 1 million jobs. That is

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research and it should be taken notice of because of who the CBI is.

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Of course there will be research on the other side as well. For me it is

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not just an economic issue. It is about how we see our country, how we

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amplify the great in Great Britain. We are already a fantastic country,

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so making sure we can achieve good tangible things or people at home

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and abroad. It is a serious organisation, so on those figures,

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they would be mad to vote to leave the EU. Which is the serious

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organisation? PricewaterhouseCoopers? The CBI? Are

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you saying that the numbers are wrong? I am, essentially. The

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numbers assume there is no low skilled immigration, and that is

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where the numbers disappear. One of the ex-members of the monetary

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committee tweeted earlier that the difference we are talking about over

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nearly 20 years that they are forecasting is less than the change

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in the forecast between the Autumn Statement last year and the budget

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this year. It is tiny. Different in tone though. I agree with Chuka

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Umunna on one thing. It is not about finely balanced forecasts. They have

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made mistakes, but put that to one side. This simple truth is this is

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about how we see our country. We have got a great country. Can it

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stand on its own to feet? Yes. It can do a better deal with free-trade

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and Europe has done in the past. Is it a country that can grow off the

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back of this? My view is yes, as the viewers know. This report is

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irrelevant. Interesting that you should raise the members of that

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committee, because the person who oversaw this PricewaterhouseCoopers

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report is a former member. And didn't think to point out how small

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the differences. He clearly thinks it will have a detrimental affect on

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our economy. In the end, I wouldn't argue that if we leave the European

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Union we couldn't stand on our own two feat. But would it be better? If

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we put the figures aside because that will not win or lose the arc

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and, although it is interesting that when we have both sides on, you go

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to the figures, but putting that aside, will you be able to convince

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people that they wouldn't be liberated or better off if there was

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a vote to leave the EU? That is the proposition being put by the other

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side. I don't buy the notion that we are shackled by the European Union,

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which the other side are putting. If we look at votes from the European

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Council, nine out of ten times we are on the majority side. I don't

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buy this talking down Britain's influence in the European Union and

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getting run over because that doesn't happen. I have been there, I

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have negotiated in this council, I know how it works. 72 times in the

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last ten years we have tried to stop the European Union and 72 times we

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have lost. How many times have we won? The fundamental point is

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countries try to avoid falling out with each other. We are the ones

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being outvoted. Listen. We have been outvoted more times than any other

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country in the European Union. Latvia, Lithuania, nobody has been

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outvoted more times than we have. As the country done so badly being part

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of the EU? A lot of it has been under a Conservative Government

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recently, which says this country has done well economically and it is

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the Conservative Government that has kept Great Britain out of the Euro

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crisis. Originally the decision was under Labour, but out of the Euro

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crisis and out of Schengen. What are you liberating Britain from? If you

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want to talk history, if you look at history Britain, when we joined in

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73, we were doing badly. In terms of exports to Europe. We were never

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very good at that. The Commonwealth and not to Europe. When we joined,

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we joined, we did really well for about 20 years, what you might call

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the common market period. Since the single market period, which everyone

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thought was the common market squared, actually we have done

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relatively poorly. Less well than countries outside the European Union

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in selling into Europe. Go on, finish your point. There is plenty

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of evidence to show you if you want to look at it. Look at the issue of

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free trade negotiations. Not just a Europe that other parts of the

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world. But we can negotiate bilateral agreements. We can't. Let

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me finish. Briefly! We can't do it. When they do it for us, in two

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thirds of those areas, our export rate goes down. Reply and then we

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move on. We benefit from the fact we don't have tariffs when we sell to

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the EU, our biggest export market. You are assuming tariffs would be

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imposed? Yes. But we also have trade agreements with 50 other countries.

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I am not saying we couldn't reach the trade agreement with another

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country but we would have more bargaining power. When negotiating

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with China, they have 3 billion people and we are sitting on this

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side of the table with half a billion people. I don't believe we

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would have the same clout sitting on our own. On that basis, we finish.

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Obviously that conversation with David and Chuka was incredibly

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illuminating, but you'd be forgiven for getting rather confused

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with all the facts and figures thrown about on the EU.

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So if you have any burning questions do get in touch with us by tweeting

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and include the word #dpeu or you can use the contact us

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page on our website at bbc.co.uk/dailypolitics.

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This Thursday we'll put your questions to

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the Conservative's Sam Gyimah and Ukip's Paul Nuttall who I'm sure

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will both do their very best to answer as clearly as possible.

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After all the stress of the last few days you can hardly blame

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Perhaps he doesn't want to come back.

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is he planning to do this Easter break?

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At the end of the show Chuka and David will give us the correct

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Maybe they can tell is where they are going on their Easter break.

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Now, in case you've had your head buried in the sand for a few days,

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you're probably aware that all is not well

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After Iain Duncan Smith's resignation on Friday,

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the Prime Minister will today use a statement in the House of Commons

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to defend a record of what he calls "modern, compassionate

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Yesterday Mr Duncan Smith took to the airwaves to declare

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that the Government was in "danger of drifting in a direction that

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divides society rather than unites it".

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His particular complaint was over initial plans to cut over ?4 billion

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from the bill for disability benefits, which Mr Duncan Smith

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He went on: "It just looks like we see this as a pot of money,

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that it doesn't matter because they don't vote for us.

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Today the Prime Minister will use a statement in the Commons

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to respond to the criticisms and defend his record of "modern,

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compassionate Conservatism" which he says has been his trademark

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since he became party leader in 2005.

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Last night Conservative grandee Sir Roger Gale criticised

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Mr Duncan Smith, saying he was guilty of opportunism

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at its absolute worst and suggested the former Work

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and Pensions Secretary had an ulterior motive.

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He went on to say the resignation was designed to do as much damage

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In cause and in support of the Brexit cause as possible.

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Today's Times makes further grim reading for the Government

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with the Prime Minister reportedly telling a Cabinet colleague

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that he blames George Osborne for the row over disability cuts.

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Former Conservative leader Michael Howard urged MPs to calm

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down and remember the party's collective responsibility

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However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said George Osborne needs

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to come to the House of Commons and explain how

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he will reconfigure his Budget in the wake of Iain Duncan Smith's

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Our party is very, very clear that we want to protect the personal

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independence payments for those with disabilities. The Budget doesn't add

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up. The Chancellor of the Exchequer should come back to Parliament and

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explain that. Far from just Iain Duncan Smith residing, if the

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Chancellor puts forward a Budget, which he did, knowing full well that

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he was taking this huge hit on the disabled, then really it should be

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perhaps in considering his position as well as Iain Duncan Smith who has

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already gone. Jeremy Corbyn. I'm joined now from central lobby

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by Conservative MP Chris Philp, a member of the Treasury

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Select Committee. Welcome back to the Daily Politics.

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Iain Duncan Smith has said this Government is in danger of drifting

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in a direction that divides society rather than uniting it. Is he wrong?

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I think he is wrong. The Government's record is a good one.

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800,000 people less Rian relative poverty than five years ago. Wages

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are going up. Thousands of children no longer live workless households.

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We have put through the biggest increase in the minimum wage at and

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given gigantic tax cuts to people on low incomes by increasing the

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personal threshold. This Government has a fantastic record of helping

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people on low incomes. Taking the point about disabilities, we are

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spending more on disabled benefits now that Labour were five years ago,

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both in pound terms of real terms, and even if these changes go

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through, which it looks like they will not, even without that,

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disability spending would have increased by ?1 billion a year so I

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disagree with Iain Duncan Smith's conclusions. So you stand by the

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policy of restricting the personal independence payment even though the

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changes will not happen? I think it is right that it should be reviewed

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and it is a measure of the Government's maturity and

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sensitivity that when a policy is proposed... That is not how it was

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taken by Iain Duncan Smith. He did acknowledge that it was just a

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consultation. It is a sign of the Government's maturity and

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sensitivity that when something is criticised, they are willing to

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think again, as they did over working tax credits. I think it is a

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sign of strength and maturity and it is good to look again to make sure

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that the things proposed actually work. The Conservatives make sure

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that people who need help get that help and that is why disability

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spending is higher now than it has ever been at any point in the

:13:55.:14:12.

history of this country. You could call is majority or a backlash

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trying to hold the party together and they are out of touch because

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they did not predict this reaction, despite protests from Tory MPs about

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changes to tax credits. What do you say about the judgment of George

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Osborne? It was a consultation and when you are looking to do something

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contentious and difficult, doing a consultation and listening to that

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consultation is the right thing to do and it is exactly what happened.

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When it comes to welfare reform, Iain Duncan Smith argued, even

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though he has seen these things -- overseeing these things, everything

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has fallen apart from pensioner benefits. How does that square with

:14:41.:14:45.

the idea that we are in it together? The richest 1% in this country pay

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30% of all taxes, a higher figure than under Labour. The richest in

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society are paying their fair share, and in fact more than they used to.

:14:54.:14:58.

But I am asking about benefits. Iain Duncan Smith said the problem was

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the juxtaposition, what he saw as reductions to disability payments

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and then at the same time offering cuts, tax breaks, to the middle

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classes, with cuts in corporation tax, capital gains tax, and raising

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the threshold at which you pay the 40p tax rate. That is not we are all

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in this together. We will come to that but the biggest tax cut of all

:15:20.:15:23.

is raising the threshold from 6000 to 11,000 500. The biggest change

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disproportionately benefits people on low incomes.

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Keeping manifesto promises is a good thing, not a bad thing.

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One of the reasons why this country has create 2.4 million new jobs,

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more than the rest of Europe put together, is because we cut

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corporation tax from 28-17%, encouraging businesses to create

:15:59.:16:02.

jobs. The way to combat poverty and help people earn more money is by

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job creation. In fact, that is our strategy and it's working. It's not

:16:07.:16:13.

sustainable. . We are 4% of the world's economy but 7% of the

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world's welfare state spending so getting people off welfare and in

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work is the right thing for the country and for individuals. 2.3

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million jobs is something we can be proud of. There was a suggestion IDS

:16:27.:16:36.

has an Al tierior motive -- you will steerior motive, do you think he

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did? It's difficult to know what an individual is thinking. I won't go

:16:40.:16:45.

as far as questioning IDS's motives. Let's say he's concerned and it's a

:16:46.:16:50.

coincidence it helps his Out campaign. Does it help it? Well, I

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think he would probably think it destabilises the Government a little

:16:58.:17:01.

bit and any resignation does. I'm happen Foy take it at face value and

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happy to argue with him on his terms, as I think he's wrong on the

:17:06.:17:10.

basis of the facts. People on low incomes are as a matter-of-fact

:17:11.:17:13.

better off than five years ago. He should know. He's been the Work and

:17:14.:17:18.

Pensions Secretary for an awfully long time. If we take it at face

:17:19.:17:22.

value, that he was being authentic, particularly with the amount of work

:17:23.:17:27.

he's done on this issue, if he's saying this actually really is sort

:17:28.:17:31.

of attacking the very core of compassionate conservatism, that

:17:32.:17:34.

really damages David Cameron and George Osborne's leadership? I think

:17:35.:17:37.

IDS is simply wrong about that. If you look at the fact we are spending

:17:38.:17:42.

more money today on disability benefits, than in the past,

:17:43.:17:45.

including under the last Labour Government. The biggest ever

:17:46.:17:49.

increase in the minimum wage is coming, helping people on lower

:17:50.:17:53.

incomes, we are lifting millions of people out of income tax entirely,

:17:54.:17:58.

the lowest paid. All those things help people on low incomes and back

:17:59.:18:02.

to work. The record is one to be proud of. Tell even Crabb, where's

:18:03.:18:09.

he going to find the ?4 billion for... It's ?1 billion a year which

:18:10.:18:14.

is about 1% of the budget. Where should it come from? He needs to

:18:15.:18:19.

have a look at that, think very carefully and make sure people

:18:20.:18:22.

who're entitled to benefits claim them, particularly for the minor

:18:23.:18:28.

conditions. The issues with the PIPs, people were getting points,

:18:29.:18:32.

for example if people needed help getting their shoes on. That's not

:18:33.:18:37.

right. The proposals need fine tuning. Some things do need

:18:38.:18:42.

changing. The fundamental point is getting people off welfare, into

:18:43.:18:47.

work, more people on disabilitiesing than ever before and we need to see

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more than that -- on disabilities than ever before. Stay with us.

:18:53.:18:58.

IDS sat at the Cabinet table, he will have listened to discussions

:18:59.:19:02.

Pre-Budget, he's now resigning over a cut that isn't going to happen? It

:19:03.:19:07.

goes back to something more fundamental than the single cut. You

:19:08.:19:12.

saw it perhaps at its most clear in the general election when both David

:19:13.:19:16.

Cameron and George Osborne were talking about 12 billion cuts in

:19:17.:19:19.

welfare. But at the same time saying we are not going to cut Winter Fuel

:19:20.:19:26.

Payments for wealthy pensioners, we are not going to cut free travel for

:19:27.:19:32.

pensioners. He's got a budget of ?220 billion odd. Massive? So it's

:19:33.:19:38.

natural George would look there. Over ?120 billion of it is pensioner

:19:39.:19:43.

payments and that was off limits. He knew that because of the manifesto.

:19:44.:19:46.

He's known for a long time and must be decided it would be part of the

:19:47.:19:52.

discusses. He was exasperated by that happening time and time again.

:19:53.:19:55.

He was forced to find a cut in the area which, for him, is fundamental.

:19:56.:20:01.

This man's spent ten years of his life pretty much committed himself

:20:02.:20:05.

to helping out the working poor, getting them back on the escalator,

:20:06.:20:09.

off their backs because he believes they've ended up in that position

:20:10.:20:14.

because of bad luck or bad breaks, bad family things, schools,

:20:15.:20:18.

whatever. That's been fundamental. What he's I think felt over time,

:20:19.:20:22.

time and time again, is that he's been handicapped in that by the fact

:20:23.:20:26.

he's got to focus all his cuts, inevitably some cuts in this area,

:20:27.:20:31.

all the cuts in that area. Why did you resign now, that's the thing. He

:20:32.:20:35.

said the latest plan to restrict disability benefits was deeply

:20:36.:20:38.

unfair and we have been through that with Chris. Isn't the truth though

:20:39.:20:42.

that the original reform, the replacement of the Disability Living

:20:43.:20:45.

Allowance with the personal independence payment PIT has been an

:20:46.:20:49.

expensive fiasco, that's what it was called by the Public Accounts

:20:50.:20:52.

Committee and that happened entirely on Iain Duncan Smith's watch. It's

:20:53.:21:00.

expensive. That, as you said earlier, now looks withdrawn. He

:21:01.:21:04.

still faces the problem of finding ?4 billion over four years from that

:21:05.:21:09.

part of his budget. He's forced into that part of his budget which for

:21:10.:21:13.

him he's done it time and time again. Universal Credit is looking

:21:14.:21:17.

problematic because of the cost in constraint. All of that reflects a -

:21:18.:21:26.

he thinks I suspect an assault on the central area of reform he wants

:21:27.:21:29.

to bring about. As for why does it take him so long - to resign from a

:21:30.:21:34.

job which is the centre of what you have been trying to do is an

:21:35.:21:40.

incredibly painful thing to do. I know, I've been there. It's not easy

:21:41.:21:45.

to do. No, so if he wanted to stay committed to the cause that he has

:21:46.:21:52.

devoted so much time to, why did he resign at all unless there was an

:21:53.:21:57.

ulterior motive to leave to EU? I think that's absolute nonsense. Do

:21:58.:22:03.

you? Yes. Or did it poison Cabinet so much that he thought actually I'm

:22:04.:22:07.

going to lose my job anyway? I don't think so. I saw arguments in the

:22:08.:22:12.

Westminster village, most of it is nonsense. I don't know what the

:22:13.:22:15.

atmosphere was, I don't think it's difficult. I think actually the fact

:22:16.:22:19.

a referendum's been given's taken all of that poison out of the

:22:20.:22:22.

debate. It's inflicted the Tory party in the past, no doubt about

:22:23.:22:28.

it, but it's actually outside. You have Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin

:22:29.:22:32.

saying you did the right thing to allow a referendum because it takes

:22:33.:22:36.

it outside Parliament, allows it to be a people's judgment. You can't

:22:37.:22:40.

really ignore the context of the EU referendum here though. Iain Duncan

:22:41.:22:44.

Smith was perhaps the most awkward and vociferous rebels against John

:22:45.:22:47.

Major's Government over the Maastricht Treaty so even though it

:22:48.:22:54.

didn't cause him to resign, collective responsibility's made

:22:55.:22:57.

people feel they can do things they have not Don previously? The press

:22:58.:23:03.

were excited about all the Cabinet Ministers being there and

:23:04.:23:06.

campaigning to vote Leave. They were in the photo because they were

:23:07.:23:11.

Cabinet Ministers. It gave them standing and leverage, normally the

:23:12.:23:14.

backbench wouldn't have that. Had Iain Duncan Smith said I'm against

:23:15.:23:17.

Europe, it wouldn't have made the back page, let alone the front-page

:23:18.:23:20.

of the newspapers. This is not about that. You have got to understand,

:23:21.:23:26.

Iain has been a man devoured by an aim... Also a bad relationship

:23:27.:23:30.

between him and George Osborne that's gone on for a very long time,

:23:31.:23:35.

very bad blood between them. Gossip columns... Oh, you know. People

:23:36.:23:41.

underestimate because I'm afraid political journalists underestimate

:23:42.:23:44.

that level of principle commitment. It's eaten him up over the years and

:23:45.:23:47.

that's why it's been so painful for him to leave. Principles, he should

:23:48.:23:53.

be a hero in Labour circles? This idea that he's a champion of the

:23:54.:23:58.

disabled and the low-paid and those who need help is nonsense.

:23:59.:24:03.

OK, he's recanted on personal independence payments, that is a

:24:04.:24:06.

good thing, but he was the biggest champion of the bedroom tax and two

:24:07.:24:11.

thirds of those who were hit by that ultimately were the disabled. But my

:24:12.:24:15.

bigger sadness is not that it's taken him so long to recant, but

:24:16.:24:20.

actually that if you look at polling on this and where the public are,

:24:21.:24:25.

because we are increasingly becoming such a segregated society, many

:24:26.:24:29.

people in work don't know people who're in receipt of benefits. You

:24:30.:24:33.

look at the bedroom tax, a substantial part of the population

:24:34.:24:36.

supported that, so one of the big questions is, how do we build

:24:37.:24:40.

stronger bonds between us so there's greater understanding. The villain

:24:41.:24:46.

of the peace here is George Osborne. He has, budget after budget, behaved

:24:47.:24:50.

like a conartist going around telling people that he has

:24:51.:24:53.

progressive budgets and those with the broader shoulders pay the

:24:54.:24:57.

heaviest burden when we know that is anything but the case. IDS, if you

:24:58.:25:03.

like, has exposed that in technicolour. That's why Jeremy

:25:04.:25:06.

Corbyn was right that George should look at his own position because

:25:07.:25:11.

he's ultimately responsible. I've got 788 people in my constituency in

:25:12.:25:15.

receipt of this personal independent payment who face having this cut

:25:16.:25:20.

unless hopefully we'll see a reversal. Sounds like it might be

:25:21.:25:23.

shelved. They have already been clobber bid the bedroom tax which

:25:24.:25:28.

was cruel beyond belief. Chris, is George Osborne's career finished in

:25:29.:25:33.

trying to go for the leadership on the basis of what Chuka said?

:25:34.:25:39.

Definitely not. Look at his record as Chancellor. We have had a massive

:25:40.:25:45.

minimum wage increase, unemployment's gone down enormously.

:25:46.:25:48.

We have created 2.3 million new jobs. Unememployment's fallen by a 5

:25:49.:26:01.

... 55... But Chris. David Willets, a minister in the last Parliament,

:26:02.:26:05.

the resolution foundation's very clear, it's a respected independent

:26:06.:26:09.

think-tank. The majority say, for example, of the income tax changes,

:26:10.:26:14.

which will occur, will disproportionately benefit the top

:26:15.:26:17.

10% of earners. You were wrong to suggest the low-paid will not be

:26:18.:26:21.

paying tax. Of course they will be paying tax, they'll be paying

:26:22.:26:24.

national insurance. This mantra, taking the low-paid out of tax all

:26:25.:26:28.

together, it's nonsense. Out of income tax. Come on! Come on, it has

:26:29.:26:34.

been a massive achievement of the coalition and this Government to

:26:35.:26:38.

take a lot of the lowest paid out of income tax. It's a significant

:26:39.:26:43.

component of their business. But hang on a second. You ought to

:26:44.:26:47.

recognise that. Tax Credits, taking those things away. Use offset things

:26:48.:26:52.

against that. You haven't been able to bring the party with you. Can he

:26:53.:26:58.

still be leader, George Osborne? If there is a leadership contest in the

:26:59.:27:01.

next few months, no, but beyond that, you know as well as I do, the

:27:02.:27:08.

memory span of the Westminster village is a few months. Really,

:27:09.:27:13.

amongst Tory MPs, they'll forgive him do you think? You will be his

:27:14.:27:19.

campaign manager! Thank you very much! Before we let

:27:20.:27:25.

Chris go, yes, you can announce your leadership! John Major famously

:27:26.:27:31.

referred to the bustards at the time of his treaty. Has Iain Duncan Smith

:27:32.:27:36.

graduated to that status again with his resignation? No, I find it hard

:27:37.:27:40.

to understand because he ran on the manifesto and we got a majority

:27:41.:27:44.

elected on the manifesto that included ?12 billion of welfare

:27:45.:27:47.

savings so he can't claim it's a surprise. The policy he was objected

:27:48.:27:52.

to, the PIPs will now be looked at again. So I find it surprising but I

:27:53.:27:57.

wouldn't describe him in those terms, no. Are you going to run the

:27:58.:28:01.

Chancellor's campaign for leadership then because you have defended him

:28:02.:28:05.

vigorously? Listen, I defend the Government and the Chancellor

:28:06.:28:08.

because I know they are doing a good job, there is no vacancy at the

:28:09.:28:12.

moment and there won't be for some time to come, so we shouldn't engage

:28:13.:28:15.

in speculation and we should focus on the job.

:28:16.:28:19.

On Sunday the European Union's deal with Turkey to stop the migrant flow

:28:20.:28:22.

from Turkey to Greece came into force.

:28:23.:28:24.

Syrian migrants and refugees who arrive in Greece are now

:28:25.:28:27.

expected to be sent back if their asylum claims

:28:28.:28:29.

Despite that hundreds of migrants have continued to arrive.The BBC's

:28:30.:28:32.

James Reynolds joins us now from Lesbos.

:28:33.:28:39.

Do migrants arriving realise the rules have changed?

:28:40.:28:48.

Not all of them. I was on the beach on Sunday morning as they cheered

:28:49.:28:52.

when they arrived. It was suggested to me that they simply didn't know

:28:53.:28:55.

the rules had changed and that they may not be able to stay in Europe

:28:56.:28:59.

all that long. I explained to some they might have to go back and they

:29:00.:29:03.

looked pretty devastated. The fact that more people have come today,

:29:04.:29:06.

this morning, several hundred of them from less boss, clearly

:29:07.:29:13.

indicates word's not crossed the Aegean that things have changed. In

:29:14.:29:16.

that case, there are going to be more and more people, if you like,

:29:17.:29:20.

stranded in Greece, some of them will be forcibly removed because

:29:21.:29:24.

they won't want to claim asylum there because they want to get the

:29:25.:29:28.

Germany, but what is going to happen to those people just sitting

:29:29.:29:29.

waiting? Two sets of people here, I don't

:29:30.:29:38.

want to go too much down a worm hole which might lose everyone if I try

:29:39.:29:41.

to explain it. But essentially you have got at the moment, 45,000 to

:29:42.:29:48.

50,000 migrants who will be abiding by the old rules, they are eligible

:29:49.:29:52.

to stay in Europe and to be relocated. The trouble for them is

:29:53.:29:56.

that no-one's stepped forward from Europe saying I'll have that lot, a

:29:57.:30:00.

few here and a few there, so those people might be stranded in Greece.

:30:01.:30:04.

The next lot, the second lot of people are those who've been

:30:05.:30:09.

arriving since Sunday. The European essentially says if they do not have

:30:10.:30:14.

the right to relocation, unless they have a valid asylum claim. If the

:30:15.:30:19.

claims which would take place, some of them behind me, are refused,

:30:20.:30:24.

they'll be turned back and taken to Turkey.

:30:25.:30:29.

Thank you. Apologies for the poor line. It is technically not very

:30:30.:30:32.

easy. We're joined by the Labour Peer Lord

:30:33.:30:34.

Dubs who has an amendment in the Lords today to give 3000

:30:35.:30:37.

unaccompanied child refugees Welcome to the Daily Politics.

:30:38.:30:48.

Before we get onto that amendment, it is early days, and do you think

:30:49.:30:53.

of this one out and one in system will work? To be honest, I don't

:30:54.:30:57.

know. The jury is out. The intention is a good one. That all people who

:30:58.:31:01.

have the intention of becoming refugees should be able to claim

:31:02.:31:05.

their status and have that status and the United Nations rules. Some

:31:06.:31:10.

people are coming in and are clearly would-be refugees. Others are just

:31:11.:31:14.

coming because it is another way of getting into Europe. I don't blame

:31:15.:31:17.

them for that but it does not qualify under the refugee

:31:18.:31:21.

Convention. You don't think there is something distasteful about a deal

:31:22.:31:24.

predicated on migrants crossing from Turkey to Greece create this one for

:31:25.:31:28.

one resettlement in Europe? If it works and it stops them leaving

:31:29.:31:34.

Turkey, then it will be successful, provided that other people know that

:31:35.:31:38.

the way to get into Europe is to claim refugee status, and if they

:31:39.:31:42.

qualify then they can come in. What evidence is there that this will

:31:43.:31:45.

deter anyone? We have seen the numbers turning up. James Reynolds

:31:46.:31:49.

has said that the new rule changes have not got through to everyone,

:31:50.:31:53.

but even when they do, do we think people wait to try and cross into

:31:54.:31:56.

Europe when they are being bombed and shelled at home? Well, it will

:31:57.:32:02.

have an effect. How big the effect is, we don't know, clearly. Look at

:32:03.:32:06.

it the other way round. When Angela Merkel said come to Germany, it went

:32:07.:32:11.

up. So I think it will go down. There are other aspects of the

:32:12.:32:14.

agreement that much more problematic than that but I think at least this

:32:15.:32:18.

may well reduce some of the flow, which means fewer people will die at

:32:19.:32:22.

CMU Mediterranean, which is the most important thing. I agree with that.

:32:23.:32:27.

I think we are capping the numbers we are taking at 70 2000. Yes, but

:32:28.:32:34.

the claims in Europe were over 1 million in 2015. -- we are capping

:32:35.:32:44.

the numbers at 72,000. Yes, but is it fair? Is that number of 72,000 a

:32:45.:32:52.

fair number? It is not a fair world. The system is grotesquely unfair and

:32:53.:32:55.

we have not found a way of dealing with it but this is an attempt to

:32:56.:32:59.

deal with one aspect of it. I think there is a misinformation put that

:33:00.:33:03.

goes on, as though this is the fault of the European Union. Isn't it? No.

:33:04.:33:10.

J Hardy is in the Middle East, growing problems, and if we were not

:33:11.:33:17.

in the European Union we would still have to grapple with this problem.

:33:18.:33:23.

Yes, but some people have legitimately, I think, it said is

:33:24.:33:27.

the EU cannot deal coherently with a problem like this then what is it

:33:28.:33:32.

for? They need to do a better job. On the discussion of how many people

:33:33.:33:36.

come in, I was talking about this in my speech today, that we need to

:33:37.:33:40.

have a bigger discussion about what happens when people settle here and

:33:41.:33:44.

how we had great damage to our communities. Be careful about that.

:33:45.:33:48.

It is clearly the case that Schengen makes it more difficult to deal

:33:49.:33:52.

with. A border free Europe makes migration flows more difficult to

:33:53.:33:55.

deal with, which is why there is such tension between many of the

:33:56.:34:05.

countries and Germany. When Angela Merkel said come to Germany, they

:34:06.:34:08.

came to Europe, not just in Germany. But we are not in Schengen. I am

:34:09.:34:11.

just making the point about how difficult it is for Europe to deal

:34:12.:34:15.

with it. This difficult eastern border which is difficult to man

:34:16.:34:20.

anyway. But if countries had taken quotas, it could have been handled

:34:21.:34:24.

in a more systematic way. You would still have the flood and the problem

:34:25.:34:29.

of managing where they are. Does it betray Europe's values? Shouldn't

:34:30.:34:36.

the EU deal with this crisis? They could have taken quotas, individual

:34:37.:34:39.

countries, rather than outsourcing the problem to Turkey at a price.

:34:40.:34:45.

You asking not complicated things. Angela Merkel has become a

:34:46.:34:48.

conscience of Europe. Who thought that would white meat -- who would

:34:49.:34:58.

have thought that would happen? If other people had taken on the burden

:34:59.:35:04.

sharing people, it would have been better, a better world. I think we

:35:05.:35:09.

should have tried to do that. I think we should have tried to share.

:35:10.:35:13.

Above all what we have got to do is find a way of stopping people

:35:14.:35:18.

drowning in the seas. We have got to find a way of assessing whether they

:35:19.:35:22.

are refugees or not. Other people come in as well and they don't claim

:35:23.:35:26.

to be refugees. We have got to find a way of doing that and this latest

:35:27.:35:30.

effort is an attempt to do that, so to this extent, it is fair. As for

:35:31.:35:39.

the price to Turkey, should we be relying on Turkey? Poor human rights

:35:40.:35:42.

record, freedom of the press is curtailed, so is this the country we

:35:43.:35:45.

should be doing this sort of deal with? To be honest, I am not sure we

:35:46.:35:51.

have any choice. They are the ones geographically in that position and

:35:52.:35:55.

ensuring that we provide aid and support, and I think we are the

:35:56.:35:59.

second-biggest contributor to that, so that people aren't making that

:36:00.:36:02.

dangerous journey but they are closest to the territory from which

:36:03.:36:06.

they have come, that is an important part of this. There is not one magic

:36:07.:36:11.

solution to this. You need a sweep of measures. I worry about different

:36:12.:36:15.

aspects of the deal. I don't worry about the exchange. That is sensible

:36:16.:36:19.

and I don't worry about the subsidy. Visa free access to everybody with

:36:20.:36:24.

Turkish papers is incredibly dangerous for European security,

:36:25.:36:27.

because we know the Turkish Government has been helpful to Isil

:36:28.:36:30.

and other jihadist groups, so what is to tell you the people the

:36:31.:36:41.

Turkish papers are definitely takes? There is a serious issue hidden it

:36:42.:36:44.

behind some sensible measures. What do you make of Lord Dubs's proposal

:36:45.:36:46.

to take in 3000 unaccompanied children? We don't know. The British

:36:47.:36:49.

Government has tried a number of things in advance of other

:36:50.:36:55.

countries. We were the first to put money into countries around Syria,

:36:56.:36:58.

and we are talking about large sums and I think we are still the

:36:59.:37:01.

second-biggest in the world. We have tried to say that we will take

:37:02.:37:04.

children from camps there because that will not have a pull factor

:37:05.:37:10.

effect. That is still part of the 20,000? I think there is some

:37:11.:37:14.

addition now, new proposal in the few days. I think the Government has

:37:15.:37:20.

done a good job of trying to balance those two problems and I don't know

:37:21.:37:25.

the details of this. The argument in favour of my amendment this

:37:26.:37:29.

afternoon is that there are estimated to be 24,000 unaccompanied

:37:30.:37:33.

child refugees in Europe. These children are possibly in Greece,

:37:34.:37:36.

possibly Italy, possibly near Calais. They are vulnerable to

:37:37.:37:41.

people traffickers, vulnerable to criminality, vulnerable to being

:37:42.:37:45.

lured into prostitution. We owe them safety. The point of my amendment is

:37:46.:37:49.

that 3000 would-be Britain's share of the larger total. We could handle

:37:50.:37:54.

that. In 1938 we had 10,000 unaccompanied children coming in and

:37:55.:37:59.

I was one of them. These are 3000. I think we can manage that. The crisis

:38:00.:38:04.

is pretty severe, having young people homeless, adrift, sleeping in

:38:05.:38:07.

the streets. We can't let that go on. How are you doing in terms of

:38:08.:38:13.

getting support? Ask me later today! I am delighted that the public

:38:14.:38:20.

response has been as it is. One backbencher like me would not

:38:21.:38:24.

normally attract that kind of attention. People have said they

:38:25.:38:26.

welcome it and we know people who have offered to be foster parents.

:38:27.:38:31.

They have got to be vetted and so on. I think it is astonishing and I

:38:32.:38:36.

am delighted. I think too often in the immigration debate it is boils

:38:37.:38:40.

down to numbers. Because of the targets that the Home Secretary has

:38:41.:38:45.

set. In the end we are talking about human beings. We are talking about

:38:46.:38:49.

individuals. I think in the end as human beings we should do what we

:38:50.:38:54.

can. I think 3000 compared to the 11,000 that we took in in the 1930s

:38:55.:39:01.

is doable. The reason it boils down to numbers is... It doesn't. It is

:39:02.:39:06.

human beings and that is my point. We don't distinguish between

:39:07.:39:15.

refugees and... In my amendment. I know, but we are just answering this

:39:16.:39:20.

point. The numbers have grown explosively. Economic migrants,

:39:21.:39:26.

exactly, that is my point. Lord Leavey threatened to resign this

:39:27.:39:29.

week are less Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, made it absolutely

:39:30.:39:33.

clear that anti-Semitism will not be tolerated in the Labour Party and he

:39:34.:39:37.

said he has not gone far enough in cracking down on it. That Jeremy

:39:38.:39:42.

Corbyn do more on that issue? I was at the meeting on Monday and he was

:39:43.:39:46.

asked about this and he said adamantly that they totally abhor

:39:47.:39:49.

racism and anti-Semitism, so it depends how much people hear what he

:39:50.:39:55.

says. But you say there is a problem of anti-Semitism among some elements

:39:56.:40:01.

of the far left. Jeremy Corbyn has already said that he despises racism

:40:02.:40:07.

and anti-Semitism that is enough being done in the far left? Baroness

:40:08.:40:13.

Royle is carrying out an investigation into what has happened

:40:14.:40:17.

at the Oxford University Labour Club. It would be disingenuous to

:40:18.:40:21.

deny that on fringes of the left their having problems with

:40:22.:40:24.

anti-Semitism but if anyone can lead the charge in stamping it out and

:40:25.:40:28.

showing zero tolerance to it, it is Jeremy. I am hopeful that he will do

:40:29.:40:34.

that because we cannot stand for any discrimination or prejudice of any

:40:35.:40:38.

type whatsoever in the Labour Party. I am dismayed that we are seeing the

:40:39.:40:43.

reports that we are seeing but is beholden on us to stamp it out and

:40:44.:40:46.

deal with it. I think that it absolutely clear and I agree with

:40:47.:40:49.

you entirely but we have got to be careful that when people at critical

:40:50.:40:54.

of Israeli Government policies, they are not accused of being

:40:55.:40:57.

anti-Semitic, and some people merge the two and they are clearly totally

:40:58.:40:59.

different. Yes. Thank you. Did you know you could get fined

:41:00.:41:02.

for carrying golf bags And you're not allowed out

:41:03.:41:05.

after 11pm if you're under It's all down to what's called

:41:06.:41:08.

Public Space Protection Orders, essentially powers given to councils

:41:09.:41:12.

in England and Wales to deal They've been seen by some

:41:13.:41:14.

as the son of the ASBO, and in certain areas are proving

:41:15.:41:18.

just as controversial. Ellie and producer Sam have

:41:19.:41:20.

been to find out more in Hillingdon, and we should say no

:41:21.:41:26.

Public Space Protection Orders were breached in the

:41:27.:41:29.

making of this film. Welcome to the London Borough

:41:30.:41:31.

of Hillingdon, where the council has It means you can get

:41:32.:41:33.

into trouble for doing certain things like gathering

:41:34.:41:38.

in groups of two or more. So Sam, my esteemed colleague and I,

:41:39.:41:40.

decided to go into the shopping centre there and loiter,

:41:41.:41:48.

where we could get fined up to ?100. Similarly, in the same area,

:41:49.:41:54.

if I decided it would be easier for me to get around

:41:55.:41:58.

by skateboard, I could In other parts of Hillingdon

:41:59.:42:00.

it is not the skateboard they are worried about

:42:01.:42:07.

but cars, specifically stationary or parked cars,

:42:08.:42:09.

left with their engines running. Sam, have you left

:42:10.:42:12.

the engine running? The idea behind it is to combat

:42:13.:42:14.

anti-social behaviour. In set areas there is a ban

:42:15.:42:22.

on spitting, and drinking alcohol It is stopping people for example

:42:23.:42:25.

gathering in groups of more People mustn't spit

:42:26.:42:31.

on the roads and that. The council has got

:42:32.:42:45.

powers to stop and fine you if you are in that shopping

:42:46.:42:50.

centre standing more than one of you, standing

:42:51.:42:53.

together in a group. They are worried about

:42:54.:42:55.

anti-social behaviour. Why should we be fined

:42:56.:42:57.

for standing in a place? You know if there is

:42:58.:43:02.

a group of elderly people standing there,

:43:03.:43:13.

they will not get fined. Using a skateboard, pedal cycles,

:43:14.:43:15.

rollerskates, rollerblades or other similar devices could land yourself

:43:16.:43:18.

with a fine of ?100. I agree with that because they whizz

:43:19.:43:20.

around and you have to put your brakes on really quickly

:43:21.:43:24.

because you nearly Hillingdon isn't the only council

:43:25.:43:25.

that's issued these Public Space One civil rights group

:43:26.:43:39.

suggests there are at least The Local Government

:43:40.:43:42.

Association says they offer a quicker response

:43:43.:43:45.

than prosecuting offenders Surely the idea behind

:43:46.:43:47.

this is just to give local councils the power to deal

:43:48.:43:50.

with local problems. Well, it is all very well

:43:51.:43:52.

for public authorities to say, "We are going to pass these very

:43:53.:43:55.

vague and broad orders but you can trust us only to enforce them

:43:56.:43:58.

in the right circumstances." We think that is wholly incompatible

:43:59.:44:01.

with the rule of law. These orders create

:44:02.:44:03.

criminal offences. When you are talking about criminal

:44:04.:44:09.

offences people should be able whether or not they are on the wrong

:44:10.:44:11.

side or the right side of the law and this kind of discretion is not

:44:12.:44:16.

compatible with civil liberties. We did approach Hillingdon

:44:17.:44:19.

Council for an interview Maybe they were worried

:44:20.:44:21.

about being caught in a group of two I am very pleased to say they

:44:22.:44:32.

managed to avoid arrest or finds in that film.

:44:33.:44:34.

We're joined now by the Opposition Leader for Hammersmith

:44:35.:44:37.

Fulham Council, Greg Smith, who for eight years was in charge

:44:38.:44:39.

Some of these offences sound bizarre. Standing in a pan left your

:44:40.:44:55.

after bus stop, that is Hillingdon Council's take on this. That is

:44:56.:45:01.

surely a mistake. I think so. I am all for localism. When something

:45:02.:45:04.

serious in a locality blows up and it is affecting people's lives,

:45:05.:45:10.

noise, kids not being able to sleep, or not being able to get to achieve

:45:11.:45:13.

station, as we had in Hammersmith and Fulham about ten years ago, but

:45:14.:45:18.

the council to be able to react quickly for a short period of time

:45:19.:45:22.

to solve that problem, that is what I am in favour of. Is it OK to have

:45:23.:45:29.

a power where you are not allowed to assemble in groups of more than one?

:45:30.:45:35.

We are seeing an increase in rough sleeping particularly in London. The

:45:36.:45:40.

way to deal with that is not to criminalise a whole group of people

:45:41.:45:43.

but is actually to ensure we build more homes and we have a massive

:45:44.:45:48.

problem on that in London. Secondly, I worry about it disproportionately

:45:49.:45:52.

being used against young people who increasingly are stereotyped and

:45:53.:45:57.

demonised in British society and too often a are kind of painted as a

:45:58.:46:01.

problem simply by convening together in a particular place. Yes because

:46:02.:46:05.

what do you expect young people toe do? If they meet with friends with

:46:06.:46:09.

skate boards, surely that's not a criminal offence? Totally. I'm not

:46:10.:46:14.

suggesting I would want to see... Some local councils are? Sure. I

:46:15.:46:19.

can't speak for other local councils, that's for them to answer.

:46:20.:46:26.

Certainly I wouldn't want to see in Hammersmith or Fulham, restrictions

:46:27.:46:32.

on one or two Kong are gating. For inexplicable reasons sometimes,

:46:33.:46:35.

certain locations become megahotspots where suddenly you find

:46:36.:46:40.

hundreds of people congregating in often small places, housing estates,

:46:41.:46:44.

which is the way a lot were built in London makes them... And is

:46:45.:46:49.

intimidating? Stops kids sleeping, and we need to do something about

:46:50.:46:53.

it. Some of the evidence shows that it works apparently, for a short

:46:54.:46:58.

period of time, as Greg was saying, to troubleshoot in local areas, if

:46:59.:47:01.

you want to devolve powers, this is what you get? It depends how wide

:47:02.:47:06.

the pow, you are that you devolve. This allows councils to translate

:47:07.:47:09.

what would be a civil offence into a criminal offence. That is a power

:47:10.:47:14.

devolution too far. I have a lot of sympathy with Greg's public order

:47:15.:47:18.

issues and to some extent the police should deal with that as well. This

:47:19.:47:23.

sort of thing can focus on rough sleepers, religious preachers and

:47:24.:47:28.

people having a demo and using a megaphone. This is too broadly

:47:29.:47:35.

drawn. So does it need to be... You narrow it down. So it's too broad.

:47:36.:47:42.

Don't forget, often you end up with displacement. An issue in my borough

:47:43.:47:47.

is prostitution. What you often find - I mean we are doing an inquiry on

:47:48.:47:52.

the Home Affairs Select Committee on this now - but once you have moved

:47:53.:47:58.

it from one area, you are simply displacing it to another place where

:47:59.:48:02.

actually you need to get to grips with why it's happening. I have

:48:03.:48:06.

sympathy with my constituencies, why is it that young people haven't got

:48:07.:48:09.

enough to do? There are loads of different reasons for that which we

:48:10.:48:12.

could fill a whole programme talking about. We'll leave you to think

:48:13.:48:13.

about that. Thank you very much. Now, we've spent quite a lot of time

:48:14.:48:16.

discussing the EU referendum but there are some other rather

:48:17.:48:19.

important elections taking Here's our handy Daily Politics

:48:20.:48:21.

guide. There are seven sets

:48:22.:48:26.

of elections happening in May, all of which will take

:48:27.:48:29.

place on the same day, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland

:48:30.:48:31.

will hold national elections. There are 60 seats up for grabs

:48:32.:48:35.

in the Welsh Assembly. The Scottish Parliament

:48:36.:48:38.

will elect 129 seats, where the SNP currently

:48:39.:48:42.

holds a majority. And in Northern Ireland

:48:43.:48:44.

there are 108 seats which will be decided for representatives

:48:45.:48:47.

to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Across England there are local

:48:48.:48:50.

government elections.124 councils 35 Metropolitan councils,

:48:51.:48:56.

19 unitary authorities And four cities in England

:48:57.:49:02.

will elect Mayors, London, Londoners will also elect members

:49:03.:49:06.

to the London Assembly And finally, voters in 41 police

:49:07.:49:13.

forces in England and Wales will elect a Police

:49:14.:49:19.

and Crime Commissioner. And we're joined now from Glasgow

:49:20.:49:22.

by the elections expert How important are the local

:49:23.:49:33.

elections bearing in mind just over a month is the EU referendum? Well,

:49:34.:49:38.

you use the word local elections but I think people in Northern Ireland,

:49:39.:49:41.

Wales and Scotland would dispute that. For them, as you said, in your

:49:42.:49:45.

earlier piece, these are national elections. The truth is, this is the

:49:46.:49:50.

biggest set of mid term elections between now, certainly and 2019 when

:49:51.:49:54.

we get the European elections. The truth is for Scotland, Wales and

:49:55.:49:58.

Northern Ireland, their devolved assemblies are now clearly, for many

:49:59.:50:02.

things, the principled body that makes decisions in those parts of

:50:03.:50:05.

the UK. For London of course it's the London Mayor and that's become a

:50:06.:50:09.

really important office inside the capital. The Police and Crime

:50:10.:50:13.

Commissioner as well, the truth is many people struggle to understand

:50:14.:50:16.

what that is about and they had an appallingly low turnout when the

:50:17.:50:18.

first elections were held in November 2012. Again, the local

:50:19.:50:22.

elections in England for people who have them, again, they'll determine

:50:23.:50:26.

their local councils. This is certainly a big, important set of

:50:27.:50:29.

elections. There's real power at stake here and, to that extent at

:50:30.:50:33.

least, it will help shape the future of British politics through the next

:50:34.:50:36.

four or five years. Let's look at Scotland. How do you rate Labour's

:50:37.:50:40.

chances in terms of any recovery there.

:50:41.:50:43.

Zero is almost the answer to that question. Right. The Labour Party is

:50:44.:50:48.

struggling north of the border, it has been ever since the 2014

:50:49.:50:55.

independence referendum. Since then, politics in Scotland has been

:50:56.:50:58.

primarily about are you for or against independence. Most who voted

:50:59.:51:02.

yes look as though they are determined to vote for the SNP and

:51:03.:51:09.

there's about a fifth of people who'll be willing to vote for the

:51:10.:51:14.

SNP even though they didn't vote for independence because they like the

:51:15.:51:17.

idea of SNP standing up for Scotland. The opinion polls at the

:51:18.:51:19.

moment in Scotland put Labour at around a fifth of the vote, which,

:51:20.:51:23.

if that were to transpire into the ballot boxes would be the party's

:51:24.:51:26.

worst performance in any elections since and including the first

:51:27.:51:32.

contest in 1918. So the SNP unassailable there because I presume

:51:33.:51:35.

the Tories won't do much better than they are at the moment? Absolutely

:51:36.:51:38.

correct. The Conservatives in Scotland look as though they are

:51:39.:51:42.

towards the high end of the range within which they have been

:51:43.:51:45.

oscillating ever since 1997 when they got a whitewash in the UK

:51:46.:51:51.

general election. The polls putting them at around 17-18% and that's led

:51:52.:51:59.

to excitement to speculation whether the Tories can get ahead of Labour.

:52:00.:52:03.

It's second place over which there was excitement is not much

:52:04.:52:07.

excitement over first. Just finally, the Mayoral election

:52:08.:52:11.

in London, how important is that? Oh, this is undoubtedly important

:52:12.:52:17.

because this is probably Jeremy Corbyn's best prospect of emerging

:52:18.:52:19.

out of these elections with good news. Back in 2008 when the London

:52:20.:52:26.

Mayoral contest was last, sorry, back in 2012 when the London Mayoral

:52:27.:52:30.

contest was fought, Boris Johnson won, even though the party won to

:52:31.:52:35.

the Greater London Assembly, he was perfectly clear it was a personal

:52:36.:52:38.

vote for Boris Johnson. Zac Goldsmith doesn't have the same

:52:39.:52:42.

personal vote, credit to him. The truth is, the opinion polls suggest

:52:43.:52:47.

Sadiq Khan ought to wear the London Mayoral election and indeed Jeremy

:52:48.:52:51.

Corbyn badly needs him to, because it could well be the case that it's

:52:52.:52:56.

in London that the best news for the Labour Party comes.

:52:57.:52:58.

Back to the fall-out from Iain Duncan Smith's resignation.

:52:59.:53:00.

The self-styled quiet man of British politics certainly didn't go out

:53:01.:53:03.

quietly yesterday when he appeared on the Andrew Marr Show.

:53:04.:53:06.

Here he is responding to criticisms that his departure had more to do

:53:07.:53:09.

with his opposition to the Prime Minister

:53:10.:53:11.

and Chancellor's stance on the EU than concern for the disadvantaged.

:53:12.:53:14.

I care for one thing and one thing only.

:53:15.:53:16.

It is that the people that don't get the opportunities that my children

:53:17.:53:20.

I want them given that opportunity and everything I have tried to do

:53:21.:53:27.

Yes, we can debate some of those things that people didn't

:53:28.:53:31.

like because they are more about the deficit than about welfare

:53:32.:53:34.

reform, but overarchingly what I am passionate about is getting that

:53:35.:53:37.

reform done so society is reformed, so we have more of those people

:53:38.:53:41.

who have been left behind brought back into the sphere and the arena

:53:42.:53:44.

We're joined now by Trevor Kavanagh of the Sun and Polly Toynbee

:53:45.:53:50.

Welcome both of you. How much did the EU referendum play a part in

:53:51.:53:59.

Iain Duncan Smith's decision to go at this point? I think the two

:54:00.:54:04.

things are inseparable. I don't believe Iain would have left had the

:54:05.:54:08.

European Union referendum not been under way. I think he was driven by

:54:09.:54:13.

other motives which of course as he's explained very clearly, but I

:54:14.:54:16.

don't think he was unconscious of the impact his resignation would

:54:17.:54:19.

have on the Brexit campaign. Do you think he thought he was going to be

:54:20.:54:24.

dumped anyway after the referendum? As I understand it, that'ses the way

:54:25.:54:28.

things are shaping up. They also probably thought his Universal

:54:29.:54:31.

Credit scheme was going to be ditched or frozen and I think that

:54:32.:54:37.

he decided that all of that was, there was another battle to fight

:54:38.:54:40.

which was Europe and he decided to fight that too. How does Labour make

:54:41.:54:45.

the most out of this in terms of it improving its chances? Well, I think

:54:46.:54:51.

it partly just sits and watches the bodies float by beside the river. I

:54:52.:54:56.

think that what Iain Duncan Smith has done is to deliver a devastating

:54:57.:55:00.

blow to the authority of the Prime Minister and the Chancellor and the

:55:01.:55:06.

referendum campaign depends crucially on their authority. This

:55:07.:55:12.

is very risky and Labour has to be careful not to do anything to

:55:13.:55:15.

unsettle the campaign. Labour is united in wanting to stay in Europe.

:55:16.:55:21.

Up to a point. Well, two Maveriks. A few more than two, but... Very few.

:55:22.:55:25.

It's extraordinary and I think Labour has to keep its eye on the

:55:26.:55:29.

ball about that referendum campaign and understand that what Iain Duncan

:55:30.:55:32.

Smith is doing is undermining that. It's a difficult game to play

:55:33.:55:35.

because of course, the other thing is that everything Iain Duncan Smith

:55:36.:55:40.

says now utterly utterly overturns everything he's done. The sheer

:55:41.:55:45.

cruelty of what he's imposed on people knowingly, of what goes on in

:55:46.:55:50.

his Jobcentres that he's instructed to sanction people, to throw people

:55:51.:55:54.

off benefits for almost nothing. Is it the end of compassionate

:55:55.:55:58.

conservatism though either for the reasons Polly's put forward thatty

:55:59.:56:02.

was in it all the way up to his next if you want to view it that way in

:56:03.:56:08.

terms of welfare, or his very well laid out arguments yesterday on the

:56:09.:56:12.

Marr programme that he was on a mission and he doesn't trust the

:56:13.:56:15.

Government to deliver that mission any more actually, and that is

:56:16.:56:17.

devastating for David Cameron and George Osborne? I think they could

:56:18.:56:22.

argue that they have been successful with compassionate Conservatives.

:56:23.:56:26.

There are a million more jobs created. They have to do something

:56:27.:56:31.

about a ?100 billion budget on welfare, we can't afford it. The big

:56:32.:56:36.

mistake was to ringfence pensions and Jeffers seas aid. Because that

:56:37.:56:40.

doesn't leave them many options. What does it go d to George

:56:41.:56:44.

Osborne's leadership chances? I think at this staining they are

:56:45.:56:48.

finished. All together -- at this stage. David Davis said they are

:56:49.:56:54.

finished for now? I don't think there's any hope of him becoming

:56:55.:56:58.

leader and the Labour Party must be, it must be music to their ears, they

:56:59.:57:03.

must be thinking, if only we'd picked someone other than Jeremy

:57:04.:57:06.

Corbyn, they could be cashing in on this. In fact, all this cashing in,

:57:07.:57:10.

the stuff about the personalities, it's a very... It's a principle

:57:11.:57:16.

isn't it? There is a human face to what was going on. I've got 780

:57:17.:57:25.

people who're in receipt of personal independence payments, keen to see

:57:26.:57:28.

what is going to happen to them and in the end, people have come in,

:57:29.:57:32.

there have been reports of people who've committed suicide in my

:57:33.:57:35.

constituency because of the harsh cruelty of what the welfare changes

:57:36.:57:41.

are. I don't even like calling it welfare, we are calling it social

:57:42.:57:45.

security. It's a human face and a reality. I don't care about

:57:46.:57:50.

Osborne's career... I talked to Iain about this. I can tell you, this is

:57:51.:57:54.

the passion of his life, welfare reform, getting people back into

:57:55.:57:58.

work was what he cared about. Actually, in that respect, this

:57:59.:58:01.

Government's been phenomenally successful. Interesting that all his

:58:02.:58:06.

defenders are people like you who are Brexiters. People like Bernard

:58:07.:58:12.

Jenkins never in his life expressed any tenderness towards the poor,

:58:13.:58:15.

suddenly everyone is weeping crocodile tears. Is there Civil War

:58:16.:58:22.

in the Tory party do weaning? Absolutely and it's only just

:58:23.:58:27.

started. A bit of time for the quiz. Do you treble question, where is

:58:28.:58:31.

David Cameron fleeing to this Easter?

:58:32.:58:43.

Thank you for joining us. See you tomorrow at noon with the big

:58:44.:58:53.

political stories of the day. Bye. ..and that's what

:58:54.:59:05.

she felt with the blues. Most people can be oblivious

:59:06.:59:07.

to what's going on around them,

:59:08.:59:13.

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