06/03/2017 Daily Politics


06/03/2017

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:36.:00:38.

Unions seek government assurances about the future of 4,500 jobs

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at two Vauxhall car factories, after the company is bought

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Jeremy Corbyn publishes his personal tax return and insists he's paid

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Should all political leaders have to follow suit?

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Ahead of Chancellor Philip Hammond's first Budget on Wednesday,

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just how reliable are the economic forecasts used by the Treasury

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to work out the UK's tax and spending plans?

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And after Donald Trump accuses Barack Obama of being a "bad or sick

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man" over claims the former US president tapped his phones, we'll

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All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole

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of the programme today I'm joined by the Business Minister

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Margot James, and the shadow Treasury Minister Jonathan Reynolds.

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Let's kick off with the mini-media storm over

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Yesterday the Labour leader published details

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of his income for 2015/16 - amounting to ?114,342.

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But his return didn't appear to list additional income he's entitled

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to as Leader of the Opposition, something his office later cleared

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up by explaining it was listed under the heading "public office".

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Speaking on the Andrew Marr show yesterday, the chancellor

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Philip Hammond said it was all a bit of a gimmick.

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He was asked if he would be willing to publish his tax return.

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Just for the record, my tax affairs are

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all perfectly regular and up-to-date.

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This demonstration politics isn't helping

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to create a better atmosphere in British

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politics and I note the Labour Party is now

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proposing a policy that anybody earning over

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a ?1 million, which I as a cabinet minister certainly am not, will have

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to publish their tax returns, make them public.

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That is likely to drive away talent and investors that

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Britain needs to create the global future that we are trying to build.

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If he hasn't got anything to hide, why shouldn't he publish it? He is

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abiding by all the rules, his tax affairs are up-to-date and it is a

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private matter between him and the revenue and I think he is absolutely

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right. It has gone wrong for Jeremy Corbyn. It was not clear up what his

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tax return was stating and whether it included his salary for being

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Leader of the Opposition? His tax return is correct. There was some

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confusion when it was first reported but it is correct. This shows why

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transparency is a good thing. If there is any confusion than having

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it out in the public domain is a good thing. For the Chancellor, you

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are in charge of the tax rates for a whole range of things and I think

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people do want to know that it is transparent and it is the right

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thing for the Chancellor to publish that. Looking at this policy of

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people earning over ?1 million should also publish their tax

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return, wouldn't people be reassured about is people

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earning whatever they are earning have a proper relationship with HMRC

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which doesn't include any favours and as far as HMRC are concerned it

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is transparent between the individual and the tax authority. I

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think the Chancellor has a good point that people have all sorts of

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legitimate arrangements involving their children and other matters of

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that nature if they are earning that sort of money and I think we should

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respect their privacy as long as we have faith with the tax authorities

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to apply the law evenly which I think after several reforms under

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the last government, we will now have.

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That policy is gesture politics, it is symbolic, a gimmick? How much

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money we raise? It is not about raising money, it is about

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transparency. There is a lack of trust in politics and people playing

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by the rules of their very powerful or if they are earning a lot of

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money. In Scandinavia it hasn't had any of the negative consequences

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that Philip Hammond mentioned when he was asked about it, if there is

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best practice in other countries, shouldn't we look at that and have

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of that and say they have more transparent systems, why can't we

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apply that he? I think that gimmick does more to undermine trust in

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politics. Why? Rushing out this policy that everyone earning over a

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certain amount has got to publish their tax returns says there is

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something wrong with the system and HMRC are going after everybody, I

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think trying to make out that unless you have published your tax return

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there is something wrong with the system is merely trying to whip up a

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lack of trust which I think is completely unnecessary. But those

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concerns do exist already. If you do reduce tax avoidance than that will

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be a different thing. You have admitted it would not raise any

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money by doing it because these tax returns are verified by HMRC sir

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Howard it reduced tax avoidance? I think anything that is more

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transparent makes it harder to be involved in tax avoidance. That is

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an obvious point to make. Really it is about public trust. It is a shame

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that public trust is lacking in politicians and how the tax system

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works. There are concerns from individuals and businesses as well.

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Would all MPs in your mind have to publish your tax returns? In my case

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there are not many MPs who earn over ?1 million that if they are involved

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they should be treated the same way as individuals, but clearly, ?1

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million would be a starting point. There would be a review on what goes

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on in other countries, particularly Scandinavia. If there are things to

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learn then we must be willing to learn them. No MPs are allowed to

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earn that money but some ministers have outside money which ministers

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are not allowed to engender. I think the Labour Party are clear, they

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want other people to publish their tax returns, entrepreneurs and

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business people but not politicians. I don't think that does anything to

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further public trust? Philip Hammond could publish his. But he is not

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going to so I don't think you will have much luck there.

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The former Shadow Chancellor and Strictly contestant hinted

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yesterday that he was thinking of a new job,

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so our question for today is, what is he toying with doing?

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At the end of the show Jonathan and Margot

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The future of 4500 jobs at two Vauxhall car factories in England

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are the centre of a huge business deal confirmed this morning. The

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parent company of French car-maker Peugeot, PSA, has confirmed it will

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by the European operations of the US firm General Motors, in a ?2 billion

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deal. The leader of the Unite union Len McCluskey was asked what he

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wanted to see the government. Simply be there, simply make certain

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that whatever debates and discussions are taking place,

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whatever the French Government and the German Government are offering

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in terms of incentives, we should also be looking at that and of

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course the Government's talk about an industrial strategy, well, now

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they have to demonstrate it is more than words, we have to make sure

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there is proper government-led Speaking in the last hour

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the Business Secretary Greg Clark Well, Vauxhall is a very important

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company, it is a successful company and the conversations

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that the Prime Minister and I have have had with both GMA

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and PSA tell me they plan to safeguard the plant, honour their

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commitments and look to increase the performance

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and the sales of cars. So we want to hold them to those

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commitments, but the messages we have had leave me to be

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cautiously optimistic. Our assistant political editor

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Norman Smith joins me now. Greg Clark is cautiously optimistic

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but there is a lot at stake here, not just the 4500 jobs but also the

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suppliers which are connected to those car plants? That is right.

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Estimates of up to 25,000 additional jobs are at risk. The position is in

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the short-term ministers are fairly confident now that production will

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continue in the UK. They have received reassurances from PSA he

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recognised that Vauxhall is an iconic brand and so on. The

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difficulty becomes after 2021 when decisions have to be made about

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where future car production will be based and in particular, from the

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middle of next year, positions will have to be made about future

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Vauxhall car lines. That is where I think it gets difficult. We are

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right slap bang in the middle of the Brexit negotiations. Although Greg

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Clark was trying to play down the impact of Brexit, I don't think

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there is any getting away from it. That creates an element of

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uncertainty. We do not know what our future trading relationships will

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be. It could be advantageous for PSA to retain a manufacturing base in

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Britain. On the other hand, it could be so difficult and problematic, the

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trading relationships, that they don't want to. But I think the real

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difficulty is the politics of this. Very obviously, we will be involved

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in a 3-way wrestling match with the French and German governments. PSA

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is partly French owned state company. They will fight tooth nail

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to keep their come please open. Angela Merkel is the big beast of

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the EU. She will use every bit of influence she has got to keep the

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German car plants open, and the real danger is do we lose political

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leverage outside of the EU? In that sense, Vauxhall could well be a test

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case of our economic prospects after Brexit. Fighting with the French and

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Germans if you like over whether future of these car plants should

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be. We also know the Peugeot boss Carlos Tavares is a renowned cost

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cutter, that is his reputation. If he wants to consolidate can we

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assume there will be fewer plants and therefore the decision you are

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talking bout will happen post-2021? The consensus in the car industry is

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that he has 24 plants at the moment. There will be a rationalisation. I

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think there is some comfort in government that Barral some strong

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economic if not political reasons for keeping production in the UK, in

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part because Vauxhall is such a big product here. 16% of total car

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sales, so why would you want to relocate production? Secondly, it is

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argued that we are at the forefront of leading car technologies, be it

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an electric cars, no carbon, battery storage. In other words, there is a

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massive incentive to have car production here. It is even

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suggested it could be a good idea to bring some Peugeot production here

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to expand on the Peugeot market. The difficulties are whether the

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economics are trumped by the politics Post Brexit. Norman Smith,

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thank you. Jonathan Reynolds, what impact do you think this will have?

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The automotive industry is the jewel in the crown of the British economy.

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It has been exported and a huge story. The Vauxhall brand is strong

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in the UK but now everything that has moved to the UK will no longer

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count as being a single market product for exports from the EU. I

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grew up in Sunderland next to the Nissan car factory. I'm very proud

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of what British workers can do but the government has got to address

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some uncertainty. The government has got to fight hard for the car

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workers. What incentives should the government be offering to show? The

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government has had a lot of discussions with Peugeot, with the

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French government and unions. Both Greg Clark and the Prime Minister

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have met Carlos Tavares, the CEO of Peugeot. And we can be cautiously

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optimistic. Until about 2021? The reassurances we have had have not

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been likely given and Peugeot recognises that Vauxhall is an

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iconic brand and that it is fundamental to the British car

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market, in which they are investing. But of Britain comes out of the

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single market and the customs union then everything changes? Not

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everything changes. The fundamental performance of the automotive sector

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does not change. Ellesmere Port is one of the most competitive car

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plants in the whole of Europe. We are continuing to invest in the auto

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sector. The industrial strategy has fantastic plans in the future to

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make sure that Britain is at the epicentre of battery development, of

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vehicle emissions and all of those things. But there will be changing

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relationships once Britain comes out of the single market and the current

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trading relations that exist and whatever deal is done? There will be

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that the industrial strategy is quite clear. We want to make Britain

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play to its strengths and that will be included as a top priority within

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the Brexit negotiations. The furtherance of our auto sector as

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well as top sectors within our economy. It could be that Peugeot

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decide to put more of their focus on plants in the UK? There would be

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some argument for that. That is why I wish the government would give us

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more detail. Some of these car plants make cars in seconds. You

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cannot possibly foresee how any delay at customs or even with a

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database of getting products from one country to another could impact

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on those in a way which would keep them productive. I do resent that

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when we ask in Parliament how was this going to happen that we are

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accused of being against business. How do you guarantee that trade at

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customs points? We have established that the sectors

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are top priorities when the Article 50 is triggered and the formal

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negotiations start. It will be impossible to give any guarantees at

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what is a two-way process of negotiations that will last at least

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two years. But we are putting those sectors of the economy at the

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forefront in terms of a good trade agreement with our neighbours and

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indeed the negotiation of free trade agreements around the world. Thank

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you. Now on Wednesday the Chancellor will

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stand up and present the Budget. But before he announces any

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new spending promises or tax cuts, Mr Hammond will read out

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the economic forecasts This is the Government -

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and other independent bodies - scanning the horizon to try

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and predict what will happen to the key economic indicators

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such as economic growth, But not everyone is convinced these

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forecasts are useful guides. And now the Taxpayers' Alliance has

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produced research showing just how wide of the mark some

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of the numbers can be. The TPA has looked back to 2010,

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when George Osborne was Chancellor, to see whether the five-year

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forecasts made then When it came to predictions

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on economic growth, The forecast in 2010 was for the UK

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economy to be worth ?1.9 trillion. And in 2015 it came

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in at ?1.88 trillion - But on the deficit, the Government

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failed to anticipate choppy waters, assuming borrowing would be cut

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to ?20 billion. In fact in 2015 the deficit

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was almost four times Meanwhile, it didn't see the black

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clouds massing around government revenues,

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thinking income tax would raise In the end, the take was a fifth

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less than what had been expected. But with employment,

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the weather turned out to be better than predicted,

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with 200,000 more people in work I'm now joined by Alex Wild

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from the Taxpayers' Alliance, who compiled the figures we've

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just been looking at. It is hardly surprising that

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five-year forecasts aren't completely accurate, isn't the point

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the Government uses rolling forecasts and events change things.

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Yes and there have been a lot of policy change with income tax,

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personal allowance has gone up and corporation tax has come down. Even

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on GDP, you said it was plain sailing and they were just about

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right, but the path to getting there has been different to what was

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initially forecast in 2010. But the point of exercise is ahead of

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budget, any wind fall that comes to the Chancellor, it is a ridiculous

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concept, when we're borrowing so much. We have got to be careful we

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don't spend all this wind fall, because things, this is very

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difficult to predict and the OBR has a difficult job. So fuel duty it is

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policy that fuel duty will go up with inflation. But nobody expects

:18:50.:18:54.

them to do that. But that is the constraints they're under. Are you

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saying predictions should be dumped. How would governments be able to

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plan if not for some sort of guideline, however difficult it is.

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I'm not saying they should be dumped. But I'm saying we,

:19:09.:19:14.

politicians, journalists, etc, should be sceptical about these

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things. Some are easier than others. If you look at the GPD numbers being

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OK. If you look at exports, business investment and earnings growth, that

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is the almost pin the tail on the donkey and they have got to be

:19:29.:19:34.

careful with this. Do you agree it is often pinning the tail on to the

:19:35.:19:42.

donkey. If you look at the previous forecasts and Paul Johnson said

:19:43.:19:45.

there is uncertainty and the forecasts are not worth the paper

:19:46.:19:49.

they're written on. I the fact the economy is roughly the size the

:19:50.:19:55.

former Chancellor predicted. But the deficit is far higher. They said

:19:56.:19:59.

they would eliminate it. The new Government came in and put back the

:20:00.:20:03.

time at which we would be living within our means to 2021 and I think

:20:04.:20:10.

that there are some, sometimes some sensible decisions that need to be

:20:11.:20:15.

need as you go through a period that may involve more spending, but

:20:16.:20:19.

sometimes revenues are beyond the Chancellor's control. If you're

:20:20.:20:26.

basing policies, isn't that the point, on the predictions and you

:20:27.:20:34.

believe the deficit would come down and you are trying to plan, you're

:20:35.:20:44.

going to be way off the mark? No, your adjusting it on an annual basis

:20:45.:20:48.

and determining the decisions based on current forecalveses, not

:20:49.:20:52.

forecasts -- forecasts. You mentioned the jobs miracle and it

:20:53.:20:57.

has been a miracle. We were all warned that when the public sector

:20:58.:21:01.

had to come under control in terms of spending that people would lose

:21:02.:21:04.

their jobs and unemployment would mount. The opposite happened and we

:21:05.:21:09.

have a million more businesses operating since 2010. That was one

:21:10.:21:14.

of the predictions that Labour got wrong? When warning about high

:21:15.:21:20.

unemployment figures, it didn't happen. There is a variability about

:21:21.:21:25.

forecasts and each year you see people arguing against things that

:21:26.:21:28.

they were in favour of the year before when the forecalveses are

:21:29.:21:42.

different. Forecalveses were -- forecasts were different. So the we

:21:43.:21:50.

have to make political choices and the government makes bad ones. And

:21:51.:21:55.

if you look at social care, the Chancellor will be forced to throw

:21:56.:22:02.

additional money to ameliorate the effects of policy changes, because

:22:03.:22:05.

they were the wrong ones? No, I think that any way we have got to

:22:06.:22:11.

wait until Wednesday, I don't know what the Chancellor will do. There

:22:12.:22:15.

have been comment, I would add anything to what you have said. You

:22:16.:22:19.

understand that will happen? No, I don't know what will happen. But

:22:20.:22:24.

there has been newspaper comment that those areas, but there has been

:22:25.:22:29.

comment there will be investment in technical education and in

:22:30.:22:33.

productivity with the national productivity council with more

:22:34.:22:37.

money. So there has been some announcements that we shouldn't

:22:38.:22:41.

overlook. Wonder where those comments came from? I can't imagine.

:22:42.:22:47.

You accept the Government do need to have some kind of estimates to work

:22:48.:22:53.

off. What are you suggesting as a sort of alternative. I'm not

:22:54.:22:57.

suggesting any alternative. It is important that I think when we look

:22:58.:23:03.

at budgets we look more at what the policy decisions are, rather than

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the forecasts. It seems a lot of coverage centres around the

:23:08.:23:10.

forecasts. At the last, the autumn statement, there were sort of some

:23:11.:23:15.

reporting of we found out what the cost of Brexit is and it is 59

:23:16.:23:26.

billion, that is crazy, we have no idea, well we have some idea, but it

:23:27.:23:31.

is difficult to tell. Last week there was numbers from the

:23:32.:23:35.

resolution foundation about inequality and poverty. But in 2011

:23:36.:23:41.

there was numbers projecting child poverty numbers which have been been

:23:42.:23:44.

way wide of the mark. So we have or the kabful. Are I you saying you

:23:45.:23:50.

don't believe the predictions that say if the benefit cuts are

:23:51.:23:54.

implemented and the poorest 15% of population will have lower incomes

:23:55.:23:58.

in five years time, because of that freeze in benefits? What I'm saying

:23:59.:24:06.

is I don't believe the predictions from 2011. What do you think of

:24:07.:24:13.

these? I'm sceptical about it. A lot 06 this hinges on, wage growth and

:24:14.:24:17.

the forecasts for that have been all over the place. But mostly on the

:24:18.:24:22.

negative side. You will use the figures and predictions as

:24:23.:24:26.

ammunition to fire at the Government, but don't you share the

:24:27.:24:31.

scepticism if they were worried about the poverty indicators in 2010

:24:32.:24:40.

are you sceptical now? I'm not saying there is anything better to

:24:41.:24:43.

go on. Well that is not very helpful. You have to use the figures

:24:44.:24:48.

that are available. Do you use the ones that support your political

:24:49.:24:58.

narrative. We would like them to analyse our plans and clarify health

:24:59.:25:03.

spending to see how much money it needs. We are in favour of more

:25:04.:25:07.

independent scrutiny. Why haven't you got any costed spending plans?

:25:08.:25:13.

We have spoke on the members of Shadow Cabinet who said they would

:25:14.:25:18.

spend the money on the NHS and social care, but there are no

:25:19.:25:23.

costings. That is not true. If you look at the tax cuts that are

:25:24.:25:29.

programmed, it is ?70 billion. That figure is disputed and you're

:25:30.:25:33.

respent the money you say would be saved from corporation tax cuts

:25:34.:25:41.

There is the cut to capital gains tax and we are at the point if you

:25:42.:25:48.

would tackle the deficit and have money to spend to address social

:25:49.:25:52.

care and the NHS and the cuts to disability benefits. The Chancellor

:25:53.:25:55.

can't hide and say he can't tackle the problems. If the tax reseats

:25:56.:26:03.

have been more promises, should that go to alleviate the suffering caused

:26:04.:26:08.

by cuts in social care. I don't accept what Jonathan said about the

:26:09.:26:13.

NHS. We are spending more on the NHS year on year and the Conservative

:26:14.:26:17.

was the only party that committed itself to funding what the Chief

:26:18.:26:21.

Executive of the NHS said was needed. I don't accept. Answer my

:26:22.:26:30.

question about social care. Should the ?12 billion that has been found

:26:31.:26:35.

should that go in to plug the funding gaps in social care? I think

:26:36.:26:39.

the Chancellor may have something to say on social care, I don't know.

:26:40.:26:45.

But I think that we to be careful, we we have still got a deficit and

:26:46.:26:53.

need to bring that down to keep maintain, the confidence of

:26:54.:26:57.

investors. And we have got to do a job to make sure that British

:26:58.:27:06.

business is competitive. So it is a mistake to look at pots of money and

:27:07.:27:12.

say we should divert it here. That is a mistaken way at looking at what

:27:13.:27:15.

we expect from the Chancellor. After last week's Stormont elections

:27:16.:27:18.

in Northern Ireland, party leaders in Belfast are today

:27:19.:27:20.

getting down to the business of trying to negotiate

:27:21.:27:23.

a new power-sharing deal - which could see the Democratic

:27:24.:27:25.

Unionist Party and Sinn Fein working together again

:27:26.:27:28.

in the Northern Ireland Executive. Let's talk now to the BBC's

:27:29.:27:30.

Northern Ireland Political Editor Mark Devenport who's outside

:27:31.:27:32.

Stormont House where If you were a betting man, do you

:27:33.:27:43.

think they will agree a deal that means they could work together

:27:44.:27:47.

again? I'm a bit sceptical as to whether they will be able to agree a

:27:48.:27:51.

deal within the three weeks that is set aside at the moment under the

:27:52.:27:59.

time table. I think it is possible that he will try and play for time

:28:00.:28:05.

and stretch out that deadline maybe into April, in the hope of providing

:28:06.:28:09.

some common ground. At the moment the stand off between the two party

:28:10.:28:18.

is whether Aileen Foster can continue as First Minister, will the

:28:19.:28:26.

green energy scheme scandal has not been solved, Sinn Fein say they

:28:27.:28:32.

won't work her her. What the is balance of power now? Historically

:28:33.:28:40.

it has been a blow to unionism. Stormont was a by word for unionist

:28:41.:28:45.

rule and this is the first time since the creation of Northern

:28:46.:28:50.

Ireland state that it does not have a unionist majority. The balance of

:28:51.:28:58.

power is held by the non-aligned people. What impact do you think

:28:59.:29:01.

that will have in terms of balance of the debate. If the unionists have

:29:02.:29:10.

lost their power of veto, within the power-sharing Government, what

:29:11.:29:13.

impact will that have on the negotiations? One thing to bear in

:29:14.:29:20.

mind is Stormont doesn't operate like a normal democracy, although

:29:21.:29:26.

the others hold the balance of power, the nationalists and

:29:27.:29:31.

unionists have a veto and you need a cross community vote. So a bit of a

:29:32.:29:36.

recipe for stalemate. The question that has to be sorted out is whether

:29:37.:29:41.

there will be a new Stormont, because at the moment, there is

:29:42.:29:45.

still a stand off over that position of Arlene Foster. We don't know

:29:46.:29:49.

whether he may nominate a care taker. Do you think there is any

:29:50.:29:55.

movement that would suggest that Arlene Foster would step aside for

:29:56.:29:59.

Sinn Fein to accept going back to power sharing? Well we are hearing

:30:00.:30:06.

some talk from within the DUP and some politicses are unhappy about --

:30:07.:30:13.

political politicians are unhappy about Arlene Foster. But the

:30:14.:30:17.

question is whether that concern within the DUP ends up with her

:30:18.:30:21.

maybe making that offer to put in a care taker First Minister or whether

:30:22.:30:26.

the DUP simply rally around her and say because it is a Sinn Fein demand

:30:27.:30:33.

they won't bow to it. It is hard to second guess this one. Thank you.

:30:34.:30:40.

Three weeks has been given for some sort of timetable, do you see Arlene

:30:41.:30:50.

Foster as being the sticking point here? James Brokenshire will be

:30:51.:30:56.

talking to politicians today. And they have also been talking to the

:30:57.:31:00.

Republic of Ireland Premier. I think it is for them to sort out who will

:31:01.:31:04.

be leading the Northern Ireland Assembly and who should not be.

:31:05.:31:10.

People have voted, they have exercised their democratic right.

:31:11.:31:13.

They are in the same situation? You will still have the two main parties

:31:14.:31:19.

of the DUP and Sinn Fein, does not solve anything. It is up to those

:31:20.:31:23.

parties to work together and maybe the independents will help them to

:31:24.:31:27.

work together and James Brokenshire as Northern Ireland Minister will be

:31:28.:31:30.

doing his best to bring them together. They have to work

:31:31.:31:35.

together. The prospect of direct rule is hanging over Stormont. Do

:31:36.:31:39.

you think the secretary of state should play a more interventionist

:31:40.:31:43.

role to try and bang heads together? It is difficult. The system is

:31:44.:31:47.

designed to make the two blocks cooperate. That is why the

:31:48.:31:52.

power-sharing agreement is in place. Direct rule is not an option. The

:31:53.:31:57.

Conservative Party is dependent on some unionist votes for Brexit in

:31:58.:32:02.

the House of Commons. In the rest of the UK we have become complacent

:32:03.:32:06.

about the politics in Northern Ireland. Not just in Westminster,

:32:07.:32:11.

I'm talking about whole country. People were not really interested in

:32:12.:32:15.

the impact of Brexit Northern Ireland. I think the rest of the UK

:32:16.:32:18.

has to be aware that they cannot be as complacent as that. They are

:32:19.:32:22.

important for this country and we must take it more seriously. We will

:32:23.:32:25.

see what happens. Let's take a look at the main

:32:26.:32:28.

political events this week. This afternoon, MPs will gather

:32:29.:32:31.

in Westminster Hall to debate whether it should be made illegal

:32:32.:32:33.

for companies to require women This comes after a petition calling

:32:34.:32:36.

for a change in the law was signed The European Union Withdrawal Bill

:32:37.:32:40.

is back in the House of Lords Peers will consider further possible

:32:41.:32:46.

amendments to the Bill, including giving parliament

:32:47.:32:49.

a so-called "meaningful vote" on the final deal that is agreed

:32:50.:32:53.

between the government and the EU. On Wednesday, Theresa May

:32:54.:32:57.

and Jeremy Corbyn will face each other for Prime Minister's

:32:58.:33:01.

Questions. Immediately after PMQs, Philip

:33:02.:33:03.

Hammond will present the Budget. He'll set out his tax and spending

:33:04.:33:06.

plans and we'll also get new economic forecasts

:33:07.:33:10.

from the This is due to be the

:33:11.:33:13.

last Spring Budget - after today, budgets will take

:33:14.:33:17.

place in autumn. And EU leaders will be in Brussels

:33:18.:33:22.

on Thursday and Friday for a meeting On their minds will be the fact that

:33:23.:33:26.

Theresa May's deadline for triggering Article 50

:33:27.:33:33.

and beginning the Brexit negotiations is now less

:33:34.:33:35.

than four weeks away. We've been joined on College Green

:33:36.:33:40.

by the Guardian's Rowena Mason, and James Forsyth of

:33:41.:33:42.

the Spectator magazine. Welcome to both of you. First of

:33:43.:33:54.

all, Rowena, tomorrow the Lords will vote on giving Parliament and

:33:55.:33:58.

meaningful vote for the end of Brexit negotiations, do you think it

:33:59.:34:04.

will make Tory MPs vote against the government? That is a possibility

:34:05.:34:07.

that the government will be worried about and perhaps that is the reason

:34:08.:34:11.

why they have explained in a little more detail today why Theresa May

:34:12.:34:15.

doesn't think this meaningful vote will take place. What they are

:34:16.:34:19.

saying is they think it could incentivise other EU countries to

:34:20.:34:24.

give the EU a bad deal and therefore scupper the UK's chances of leaving

:34:25.:34:29.

the EU. That is the argument they will be presenting tomorrow but it

:34:30.:34:30.

does still look pretty likely that the House of Lords, on a cross-party

:34:31.:34:51.

basis will vote to pass that amendment. And if it is passed there

:34:52.:34:54.

will be limited ping-pong do you think between the two houses? The

:34:55.:34:56.

government hopes there will only be one round of ping-pong. But if the

:34:57.:34:58.

government strips out the amendments then it will go back. Without Labour

:34:59.:35:06.

and the ability of the -- without Labour, the ability of the Liberal

:35:07.:35:09.

Democrats to create mischief is quite high. A meaningful vote could

:35:10.:35:16.

be one where they send back the deal and say revise it or improve it. I

:35:17.:35:20.

do not think they will be worried about the Lords voting for it. There

:35:21.:35:24.

is the second round of ping-pong in the Lords and we think Labour will

:35:25.:35:29.

probably back down. The risk for the government is that more Conservative

:35:30.:35:32.

MPs in the House of Commons joins together with Labour and the Lib

:35:33.:35:38.

Dems to force it through at that stage, and we don't really know what

:35:39.:35:40.

will happen after that, that could delay things a lot longer. Either

:35:41.:35:46.

way Article 50 will not be triggered by the time Theresa May goes to the

:35:47.:35:50.

summit in Brussels. What sort of reception will she get there, do you

:35:51.:35:54.

think? I think things are less frosty than they were but I think

:35:55.:35:59.

the European Union has stuck to its line of no negotiation until

:36:00.:36:02.

notification. That is why the rights of EU residents in the UK and UK

:36:03.:36:07.

residents in the EU cannot be sorted out because the EU says we're not

:36:08.:36:13.

doing any negotiation until you tell us you are formally starting Article

:36:14.:36:21.

50 process. Do you think that the initial theory is dying down

:36:22.:36:26.

somewhat? I think there is a degree of that. At the moment we are in

:36:27.:36:30.

this strange limbo process where Theresa May is attending the summit

:36:31.:36:34.

but she doesn't really have a great role to play. I think what she's

:36:35.:36:40.

going to be aiming on Thursday is not to look like a billy no mates

:36:41.:36:43.

and the odd one out and to have nothing to do. The EU during this

:36:44.:36:48.

period where we have not triggered Article 50 yet says absolutely there

:36:49.:36:52.

will be no start of negotiations. It is difficult for her at the moment.

:36:53.:36:57.

And she doesn't want to seem to be being cold shouldered. Meanwhile,

:36:58.:37:02.

August talk of a Brexit war chest of some substantial size? Thing that

:37:03.:37:07.

just means that Philip Hammond will not spend the money that we have not

:37:08.:37:11.

borrowed. It is a funny kind of war chest. I think what it shows is

:37:12.:37:15.

there is such uncertainty at the moment. Even though Philip Hammond

:37:16.:37:19.

has been more upbeat and optimistic about Brexit in public, I think in

:37:20.:37:23.

private he thinks there will be some kind of economic slowdown and he

:37:24.:37:26.

wants to have something in reserve if that was to happen. And that has

:37:27.:37:31.

been a lot of talk about plugging some of

:37:32.:37:43.

the funding perhaps ameliorating some of the impact of the business

:37:44.:37:47.

rate changes, and bearing in mind the Tory manifesto commits the

:37:48.:37:49.

government to not raising income tax of VAT, we are presuming there will

:37:50.:37:52.

be stealth taxes on the up? That is an idea which has been mooted quite

:37:53.:37:55.

a lot over the weekend and I wonder how some of the right-leaning press

:37:56.:37:59.

will respond to that, if it does look like there are tax rises. The

:38:00.:38:05.

fact is, that he is, the Chancellor is probably going to have to do

:38:06.:38:08.

something about social care, given the clamour among Conservative MPs

:38:09.:38:13.

as well as Labour MPs for the pressure on councils to be eased and

:38:14.:38:17.

then this issue of business rates as well will have to be dealt with.

:38:18.:38:22.

Won't it be strange for a Conservative government to increase

:38:23.:38:26.

taxes on the self-employed, for example, to try and get some more

:38:27.:38:30.

money into the coffers? I think there will be some unease on the

:38:31.:38:34.

Tory benches. I think what Hammond will portray any move like that is

:38:35.:38:37.

we have to deal with the new nature of the economy, with far more people

:38:38.:38:42.

being self-employed and also being self-employed but working for big

:38:43.:38:48.

corporations, Uber being a classic example. You have to find some way

:38:49.:38:53.

of adjusting so you don't erode the tax base through self-employment.

:38:54.:39:00.

His reputation is Spreadsheet Phil. Will he stick to that in this

:39:01.:39:05.

budget? I think he is more likely to produce a spreadsheet from a hat

:39:06.:39:10.

than a rabbit. We look forward to that excitement! Do you agree,

:39:11.:39:14.

Rowena? I do agree. One of his aims is to make this a boring budget. He

:39:15.:39:19.

does not want to make waves. He has already said he will make the autumn

:39:20.:39:23.

fiscal event the big event of the year and he will keep his powder dry

:39:24.:39:33.

for now. Thank you. Muslims in the UK are becoming

:39:34.:39:36.

increasingly victimised, that's according to the journalist,

:39:37.:39:38.

campaigner and Muslim She argues that there

:39:39.:39:40.

is an increasingly toxic narrative against Muslims,

:39:41.:39:43.

caused in part by the rise of right wing nationalism across Europe,

:39:44.:39:46.

here's her soapbox. Europe's new far

:39:47.:39:50.

right is on the rise. to Denmark, Holland,

:39:51.:39:55.

France, Germany, there has been a rapid growth

:39:56.:40:04.

of right-wing parties over As a white woman from

:40:05.:40:06.

a working-class background, that makes me a target

:40:07.:40:11.

for their vote. I'm a Muslim, one of nearly

:40:12.:40:14.

three million in the UK, and that Here at the former Byker Grove

:40:15.:40:20.

studios, where Ant and Dec rose to fame in Newcastle,

:40:21.:40:28.

windows have been smashed and a pig's head was dropped

:40:29.:40:32.

just here, only after it emerged that the building was going to be

:40:33.:40:36.

transformed into an Islamic Academy. Hate manifests itself

:40:37.:40:43.

in many different ways. Women are reported as having

:40:44.:40:46.

their hijabs pulled off. One pregnant woman was kicked

:40:47.:40:50.

in the stomach And another veiled woman

:40:51.:40:52.

who was wearing Islamic dress was stabbed many times at the university

:40:53.:40:58.

campus where she was studying. There are fears we

:40:59.:41:12.

are standing at the head of the same street our Jewish

:41:13.:41:14.

cousins were dragged down in the 1930s, and we all know

:41:15.:41:19.

where that ended. The far right are using the weapons

:41:20.:41:24.

of fear, nostalgia and resentment against mainstream

:41:25.:41:28.

politics to galvanise voters. This in turn is fuelling anxiety

:41:29.:41:34.

and unfounded fears of terrorism, which in turn is fuelling demands

:41:35.:41:40.

for tougher immigration policies. It's a simple enough message

:41:41.:41:55.

and one that worked so well for Donald Trump in America,

:41:56.:41:58.

but when people fear that they are not being listened to, they will

:41:59.:42:01.

head to the lure of the populists, who will trade

:42:02.:42:04.

on their fears instead. Even if the far right doesn't win,

:42:05.:42:06.

they've already changed the political landscape in Europe,

:42:07.:42:08.

forcing mainstream parties to adopt These extreme views are now

:42:09.:42:13.

being perceived as normal. And Yvonne Ridley is here,

:42:14.:42:23.

and we're also joined by You talked about the fact that some

:42:24.:42:40.

of the far right's policies and rhetoric is now being adopted by

:42:41.:42:44.

mainstream parties. What evidence is there that policies are being passed

:42:45.:42:49.

by mainstream parties which are anti-Muslim? Just recently we had in

:42:50.:42:57.

Austria our European government minister there saying he wanted to

:42:58.:43:07.

ban the macabre. The reality is that the niqab was warned by a few

:43:08.:43:16.

thousand women in Austria. The headlines were that it was right

:43:17.:43:20.

across Europe. There is a big story at the moment brewing in Germany in

:43:21.:43:27.

one particular school where Muslim pupils have been praying and the

:43:28.:43:32.

school is having a difficult time with the large congregations. Peter

:43:33.:43:36.

Whittle, Yvonne Ridley said in her film that the political rhetoric

:43:37.:43:41.

from some far right parties and other politicians has fuelled hate.

:43:42.:43:47.

Nigel Farage said Germany's open-door policy to a million

:43:48.:43:51.

migrants from fought on Syria opened the doors to Isis and extremism. Do

:43:52.:43:54.

you think that is the sort of rhetoric that fuels the hate it

:43:55.:43:59.

Yvonne Ridley is talk about? First of all we're not far right. I did

:44:00.:44:04.

say other politics. I think this has been borne out by recent events the

:44:05.:44:10.

difference is that he was to radical Islamist, extremists who want to do

:44:11.:44:14.

us harm. He was therefore not opening out to a general attack on

:44:15.:44:22.

Muslims. Of course he wasn't doing that. To accept there a difference

:44:23.:44:26.

about talking about Isis and extremism and ordinary Muslim

:44:27.:44:30.

families? I think sometimes politicians from all parties can be

:44:31.:44:38.

extremely vocal about Muslims in a negative way and you get cases that

:44:39.:44:42.

I talked about where a pregnant woman in Milton Keynes was kicked in

:44:43.:44:47.

the stomach. But that is an anecdotal incident. It definitely

:44:48.:44:52.

happened. She lost her babies. Another goal was stabbed to death.

:44:53.:44:57.

These happens because politicians say things and they trigger idiots

:44:58.:45:00.

out there who are listening to them. I know you can't legislate for

:45:01.:45:04.

idiots, but you know with the rhetoric, if it can just be toned

:45:05.:45:14.

down and said in a thoughtful less hateful way.

:45:15.:45:18.

What we have seen is a narrative of a rise in hate crimes, which if you

:45:19.:45:27.

look at the figures does look like that on paper, the problem is the

:45:28.:45:32.

way they're reported is almost unique in the sense that no evidence

:45:33.:45:39.

is required. It relies on the perceived or the alleged victim and

:45:40.:45:42.

what they think happen or anybody else. Which means that someone

:45:43.:45:47.

watching this programme could report us, this is a hate crime f they

:45:48.:45:52.

thought it was. Are you denying there wasn't a spike in hate crime

:45:53.:45:56.

after the Brexit vote. There was a narrative that people were

:45:57.:46:01.

determined to make fit their theory. The police claim the figures are

:46:02.:46:07.

borne out. If you look at the figures of hate crime and that is

:46:08.:46:14.

all hate crime, the amount that amount to a prosecution is something

:46:15.:46:18.

like 35%. In other words, a fraction of the figures. The problem is as

:46:19.:46:22.

soon as you report it, it immediately becomes a hate crime

:46:23.:46:25.

statistic and it is reported by the press. That is pretty much unique,

:46:26.:46:33.

you don't have any other crime with that situation. Looking back when

:46:34.:46:43.

Nigel Farage unveiled that vile poster of Syrian refugees. They were

:46:44.:46:48.

not all refugees, many were economic migrants and he was talking about

:46:49.:46:53.

Europe, a poster was around Europe. Don't you regret that? No? No the,

:46:54.:47:03.

the whole narrative is somehow Brexit unleashed this hate. Some

:47:04.:47:07.

people would like everybody who voted Brexit to be made you know...

:47:08.:47:14.

Culpable of a hate crime. This is ridiculous and I think as well that

:47:15.:47:21.

it does a rude service to people who are the least racist in the world.

:47:22.:47:31.

Now Margot James, one study looking at terrorist-related incidents had

:47:32.:47:35.

looked at data from the national police chiefs council that said the

:47:36.:47:42.

number of far right refer rals has increased. Do you think the threat

:47:43.:47:47.

of far right extremism has been ignored? That might have been the

:47:48.:47:53.

case a few years ago, but the Government have caught up with the

:47:54.:47:57.

far right threat and taken steps to deal with it. I represent a Black

:47:58.:48:03.

Country constituency and almost every year we have our way of life

:48:04.:48:09.

totally abused by far right people who come and march in the centre of

:48:10.:48:14.

Dudley. All the shops have to close. People's well being is threatened

:48:15.:48:18.

and in particular the Muslim population. So it is right that the

:48:19.:48:22.

Government have cracked down on it and it is necessary and I agree with

:48:23.:48:32.

Yvonne there has been a rise in hate crime and it should be dealt. There

:48:33.:48:37.

has been a rise in reporting. I represent a constituency and part of

:48:38.:48:41.

a wider area I can see it and I have individual reports and I also would

:48:42.:48:46.

argue with the point with you based on the fact that the hate crime that

:48:47.:48:50.

goes unreported. I have people come to me to talk about instances and

:48:51.:48:55.

they want don't to go to police. I don't agree with your argument. Can

:48:56.:49:04.

I comment. In terms of spike in hate crime, much was directed at eastern

:49:05.:49:11.

Europeans, rather than Muslims, do you accept all politicians have a

:49:12.:49:15.

role to play in the language they use, how much do you think the focus

:49:16.:49:24.

on Islamic extremism has fed into a fear if you like of the Muslim

:49:25.:49:30.

community? It is absolutely every politician's responsibility. If you

:49:31.:49:37.

look at the history of prejudice it was Irish people and Jewish people

:49:38.:49:41.

and now the Muslim community is receiving the threat. I do not

:49:42.:49:48.

believe that senor people in Ukip are interested in a serious

:49:49.:49:55.

discussion about immigration. What do you say to that? It is

:49:56.:50:01.

outrageous. One of the biggest rises in hate crime has been anti-Semitism

:50:02.:50:08.

against Jewish teemest people. People -- people. People are

:50:09.:50:13.

reporting them and the police have to take them at their word, so that

:50:14.:50:23.

basely base economy it comes to that. It won't have any party linked

:50:24.:50:28.

with the rise in hate crime. It is outrageous. Can I put to you, you

:50:29.:50:34.

have said, Yvonne, this has been fumed by irrational fears over

:50:35.:50:38.

terrorism, but you must accept the attacks, some of the high profile

:50:39.:50:46.

attacks like Woolwich and 7/7 have been driven by Islamist ideology.

:50:47.:50:51.

Yes can I fear some of fear. Is it irrational? Having lived in London

:50:52.:51:01.

for 20 odd years, and seen the and experienced the... Irish troubles

:51:02.:51:10.

and the Irish situation. The fears towards Muslims is irrational, you

:51:11.:51:15.

know we went in this country through more than 30 years of so-called

:51:16.:51:22.

Irish troubles. You can understand why people feel worried? Yes,

:51:23.:51:29.

because you look at the news stands and the headlines and the words from

:51:30.:51:33.

the politicians. They whip up fear... Yvonne this is an altern

:51:34.:51:40.

Nate reality, you're in. You didn't say that yes those attacks were down

:51:41.:51:46.

to a form of Islamist ideology, you didn't accept that. That speaks

:51:47.:51:56.

volumes. Lee Rigby was killed near where I live. The 7/7 was an

:51:57.:52:04.

Islamist ideology. I'm not in denial and I would refute what you say, but

:52:05.:52:11.

we had more than 30 years of Irish terrorism and dealt with it in a

:52:12.:52:16.

calm way, not th hysteria that you bring to it. Thank you both very

:52:17.:52:18.

much. Let's take a look now

:52:19.:52:21.

at the latest developments Over the weekend, President Trump

:52:22.:52:23.

made allegations that his predecessor Barack Obama had ordered

:52:24.:52:28.

a wiretap to be carried out On Saturday morning Donald Trump

:52:29.:52:31.

tweeted: "Terrible! Just found out that Obama

:52:32.:52:34.

had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower He then compared it to Watergate,

:52:35.:52:37.

writing "How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones

:52:38.:52:48.

during the very sacred Obama's spokesman Kevin Lewis

:52:49.:52:50.

strongly refuted the allegations, tweeting "Neither @barackobama nor

:52:51.:53:02.

any WH official under Obama has ever ordered

:53:03.:53:04.

surveillance on any US Citizen. Any suggestion is

:53:05.:53:06.

unequivocally false." We've been joined by

:53:07.:53:28.

Charles Kupchan, who's a professor of international affairs

:53:29.:53:30.

at Georgetown University in Washington and who's just arrived

:53:31.:53:32.

in the UK to deliver a talk in parliament on the

:53:33.:53:35.

Trump presidency. As wove explained, Donald Trump said

:53:36.:53:46.

his phone was hacked, something President Obama has denied. Why

:53:47.:53:51.

would he tweet such a thing if he didn't have proof? Trump seems to be

:53:52.:53:57.

someone who doesn't act according to script. He may wake up in the

:53:58.:54:02.

morning and be in a bad mood and he pops off with these tweets that in

:54:03.:54:11.

many cased -- cases are not based on fact and create some media spin that

:54:12.:54:15.

takes the conversation away from where he doesn't want it to be,

:54:16.:54:19.

which is on Russia. That seems to be the only explanation. In your mind,

:54:20.:54:25.

it is a diversion tactic, which is what it looks like, because he has

:54:26.:54:28.

not got the evidence to back up his claims. I think it is a combination

:54:29.:54:35.

of diversion as a strategy, but also using things that are not based in

:54:36.:54:39.

fact to keep everyone off balance and turn the system upside down, so

:54:40.:54:45.

we don't know what is true and what is not and he seems to be president

:54:46.:54:49.

who revels that in kind of uncertainty. It is a chaos theory,

:54:50.:54:53.

while everyone is running around trying to prove or disprove his

:54:54.:55:00.

claims, it takes up people's time. It chaos theory that wedded to his

:55:01.:55:03.

political brand and he has been elected by people who think the

:55:04.:55:08.

system doesn't work for them. He is challenging the establishment and

:55:09.:55:10.

the intelligence communities and the press to say, hey, I represent you

:55:11.:55:20.

disaffected people. Does it Is it that thought out to say I will

:55:21.:55:25.

challenge the establishment? I don't think it will work, if you look at

:55:26.:55:29.

the poll numbers, they're the low nest history for a new president and

:55:30.:55:35.

the average working American doesn't want disruption, he or she wants

:55:36.:55:39.

more income and Trump needs to deliver on that and he has not given

:55:40.:55:43.

us any detail. But he says he will deliver on that promise that he will

:55:44.:55:50.

make jobs and bring back Josh -- jobs to the rust belt states. Don't

:55:51.:55:56.

the people like that he is challenging the establishment

:55:57.:55:59.

authority? There is a core Trump base that is enjoying this. Whether

:56:00.:56:06.

that enjoyment stays there, I am doubtful, because at the end of the

:56:07.:56:12.

day people will get tired of this and want a sense of normalcy. Is

:56:13.:56:19.

this a water shed moment? If there is no evidence, if we have had the

:56:20.:56:24.

FBI reject it, it is a moment at which there is a turning point for

:56:25.:56:29.

what Donald Trump does on social media. I don't think we are there. I

:56:30.:56:33.

I think we need something that sticks. My own sense is that as we

:56:34.:56:38.

investigate what is going on in the Russia file, there is more to be

:56:39.:56:41.

had. That story has not come to an end. Whether there is information

:56:42.:56:46.

there that could fundamentally damage Trump, compromise the

:56:47.:56:49.

presidency, we don't know. But I think that right now is his most

:56:50.:56:54.

vulnerable flank. What do you think it is doing to America's standing in

:56:55.:57:01.

the world? Well it is damaging, spats between the president and the

:57:02.:57:05.

Security Services in the United States are worrying for all of

:57:06.:57:10.

NATO's members. And we just have to hope that the situation improves. He

:57:11.:57:15.

said he doesn't like the mainstream media, it is a way of challenging

:57:16.:57:23.

the media using social media? It gets people's attention. After he

:57:24.:57:27.

tweeted the claims, he tweeted something about The Apprentice.

:57:28.:57:33.

Imagine discovering a Water gate level scandal and then forgetting I.

:57:34.:57:38.

But this is causing damage to American and causing uncertainty.

:57:39.:57:43.

The real story is the Russian link. There is a stand off between the

:57:44.:57:49.

media and the White House, ow sustainable is that conflict? It is

:57:50.:57:54.

going to be bloody, because the New York Times and others are out for

:57:55.:57:59.

him. And banned. Banned from coming to a briefing. This is still heating

:58:00.:58:05.

up. I think the one silver lining is that he has appointed people around

:58:06.:58:09.

him that are adults. The Secretary of State, the Secretary of defence.

:58:10.:58:14.

We have a serious national security advisor. If he listens to them and

:58:15.:58:19.

that is a big if, he could push them in the right direction. But we don't

:58:20.:58:21.

know. Thank you. There's just time before we go

:58:22.:58:23.

to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was what job

:58:24.:58:27.

is Ed Balls considering next? He is quite good on the piano. He

:58:28.:58:46.

said never say never about a return to Westminster. I think there is a

:58:47.:58:52.

job there. That is the right answer. From all of here today good bye.

:58:53.:58:59.

Were back tomorrow at 1 o'clock.

:59:00.:59:01.

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