11/06/2011 Dateline London


11/06/2011

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Today, we are discussing

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Syria, Libya and the future of NATO. And also Prince Philip at the age

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of 90. My guests today are Dame Ann Leslie of the Daily Mail. Atth.

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Abdel Bari Atwan. And Jeff McAllister, the American writer. We

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want to start with Syria which is torn between terror and defiance.

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As the regime cracks down on its own people. Even the United Nations

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Secretary General is not able to get President Assad to pick up the

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phone. Let us begin with Syria, just what is to be done. What are

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your thoughts on where it can go from here?

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It is a disaster. The situation is deteriorating week after week. On

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Friday we saw a bloody massacre. The regime is decided to crush the

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people by force. It is a bloody circle, every Friday people are

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calling for reforms, demonstrating, to live as a human. What they are

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faced with, live ammunition. Up to 100 people are killed every Friday.

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The following day, we have the funeral. On Saturday, army forces,

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tanks, open fire on those people participating in those funerals.

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The problem is, now, the Syrian forces are using helicopters. There

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are three scenarios. The first, or they've regime to reduce serious

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reform, which is unlikely. Second, we can have a civil war as in Libya.

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I think this is the most likely. The third option is to have a North

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Korea, at a regime which is completely isolated, using the iron

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fist against its own people. We do not know. It is open for all of

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these scenarios except reform. What is the difference between

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Syria and Libya when it comes to the international response?

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For it is a much bigger country, it is more important in terms of where

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it is in the Middle East. It has also got a more complicated society.

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Because it has Christian's, a middle-class whether women dress

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like us. It is not so tribal. It is trouble in the sense that the

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Assads are a tribe. And they belong to a set but then Shia. Assad, when

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he came in, he was an ophthalmologist at the Eye Hospital

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here. He seemed quite a sweet. When he came in after the death of his

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bloodthirsty dad, he started talking about reforms, this was in

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2003. But, blood will out. His father kept control of Syria by

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just slaughtering everybody who objected to him. The most famous

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was in Hamah where the Muslim Brotherhood group were getting a

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bit too uppity. And, 20,000 people were massacred. And as opposed his

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son is thinking, it is not going to world -- work, this reform business.

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I suppose the only way is to follow dad. I believe his brother is even

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more bloodthirsty and he is in charge of the security services.

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will not answer the phone to the United Nations, he is not listening

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to Hillary Clinton. People coming out of there are say it is about

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oil and why isn't the international community coming in there? That is

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unfair. This is a miserable situation. Do not forget the Libyan

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intervention is not a success. There are limits to the capacity to

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bomb regimes and do what you want. It may get to the stage where the

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international community feels it absolutely must. Unlike Dad with

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Hamah, this is the error of the internet. It is hard to believe for

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me that Syria could become a North Korea enclave. Turkey, you should

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hear what Recep Tayyip Erdogan is saying. As the numbers of refugees

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are growing too many thousands, they may even try to create an

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enclave inside Syria to protect refugees. I think there is too much

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movement for Syria to ever be sealed off. Will the Turks actually

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want to intervene, they have the troops and capacity. The will of

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the community is the question. key thing is Iran and Turkey, not

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Britain. We do not have the means actually. Look at NATO. It will

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take another few weeks, months. Syria, President Assad will fall.

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But with how much blood? Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he changed his

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speech entirely. Iran and Turkey offered two different political

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models for the whole Arab world. For do you think the people, a lot

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of these protesters then this arab spring have been very young. Is

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this being driven by a social networking? They do share, what is

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happening in the Arab world, they do share pictures. All the talk

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about Al-Qaeda being behind, being responsible for this anger.

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Actually, these young people are asking for the same thing.

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serin -- sectarian tensions have been built up, it is the only way

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someone like him can hang on to power without slaughter. You can

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have rhetoric all over the place. It doesn't work if it doesn't

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fasten on to something real. For example, now, the Christian

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community are getting worried. They'd do not know what will happen

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when he falls. They fear they will be persecuted, and Ancient

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committee. The one thing you could say about the Assad regime, it is

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secular. Secular societies actually are better for religious minorities

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than societies where everybody belongs to a single faith.

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dementia and Libya. I want to come back to you. The situation in Libya

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has not been a bed of roses either and isn't going well. But, there

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are branches being offered to Gaddafi as well. Reporters on the

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scene said there does seem to be a movement perhaps towards Gaddafi,

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the rebels seem to think they are going into the endgame. Would you

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agree? Now, I disagree completely. We haven't seen a concrete peace

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plan for Libya for the last four mums. There were talks about

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crashing Gaddafi, changing the regime, killing him, assassinated

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him, bombing his headquarters. We have never seen an olive branch

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extended to him by any superpower. It seems nowadays, because they

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realise that, four immense -- months of bombardment. There is no

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end game. They are saying the best way is for Gaddafi to leave. I

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think this is a sign of fatigue among NATO. They now realise

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bombing will not solve the problem and Gaddafi is still holding up.

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This is a dilemma for them. Fatigue, yes. Apparently, that is what MI6

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says, he is on the run. Sleeping in a given a hospital every night.

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you were in his plays, where would you go? It is like Ban Ki-Moon

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tried to get access to a sad. Nobody wants him. Who will offer

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him a safe haven? People have been trying to get him out for four

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months. He has not been interested. Where would he go? Zimbabwe? He can

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come to Birmingham, he would be extremely welcome. Is there an

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expectation in the international committee that we expect to sort

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these things more quickly, but they have become more complicated?

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is the origin of the Powell doctrine. You can order the sorties

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but what you do if it does not work out nicely in the short term?

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Military tools are a blunt instrument. Unless you actually

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take over the country. Even in the Iraq which did not turn out so well.

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When his intervention happened, it really was because it looked like

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it was a humanitarian disaster and they could do nothing. They could

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have done nothing. Politically, they felt they couldn't. Now you

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have television showing everything. People said something must be done.

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One of the worst cries you can inspire, something can be done. I

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was very against the Libyan intervention in the first place.

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This is going to be a disaster, as I said. There will be mission creep.

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A word not often used. It is not going to work. There are other ways

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of dealing with it. We never bothered, with massacres going on

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elsewhere, because there wasn't daily television. You mentioned

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Robert Gates. He is the outgoing American Defence Secretary. In an

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outspoken speech he described the future for the organisation as dim

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and dismal and hinted future American administrations might not

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be so willing to help out their European allies. Is he right?

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would say, yes, yes, and know. I think anyone of his written foreign

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policy stories has probably written the European allies are not doing

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enough to help NATO, not spending as much as the Americans. And it is

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true. It has been a persistent imbalance in the alliance. Since

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September 2001, European defence budgets had declined 15%, the

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proportion the Americans pay for NATO is now some 25% when it used

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to be 50% at the height of the Cold War. If it is going to work, you

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see in Libya, they can only do 150 sorties a day. Americans have to

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provide the bombs because the British and French do not have them.

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So they are paying their way? Europe is not paid its way. It

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But without one trillion dollars spent in Iraq, maybe the Americans

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would have more money to spend. Aware it was the Soviets coming

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across, everybody understood and 80's mission. Now it is Libya,

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Afghanistan, what does that have to do with NATO? No one quite

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understands. Is Europe the poor relative now in NATO? It depends.

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Look at Libya. America, rightly so, is taking the idea that we are

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there, but France and Britain are pulling their weight. But we don't

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have the money to do what we used to do full stops and the other

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countries are not pulling their weight. Its 28 members, they all

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agree to go to Libya, only a third is participating in the strikes.

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a lot of people are not even taking part, is that the crux? They

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thought it would be a picnic in Libya. In 10 days, it will be

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finished. That is the problem, underestimation. They thought that

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Gaddafi would collapse after a few cruise missiles, 150 cruise

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missiles, he would raise the white flag. That did not happen. Only

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eight out of 28 have committed themselves in Libya. Britain is

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losing �1 million every day in Libya. That's the end game. That

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was one of my arguments about not going into Libya. But even when the

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NATO allies are putting boots on the ground, Germans, the Germans

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will not fight after 4:30pm. They have to have their teeth. They are

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basically pretty useless. Are you sure it is the Germans that want to

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have tea? The British command their afternoon tea! There afternoon

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break. I'm going to use a rude word, so I'll try to rephrase this. The

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Americans must be rather annoyed with Europe. Which pours scorn on

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everything America stands for and does, cheers at it, and then expect

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America to do all of the heavy lifting for them. And they will

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still abuse America. I'm with Robert Gates. This is a military

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alliance. It is not a do-gooding alliance. It's not an alliance for

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taking small children to school. I remember Condoleezza Rice saying,

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ages ago, the role of the B 52s is not to carry small children to

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their local kindergarten. And this is one of the problems. It's a

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military alliance. And yet half the people in it, half of the nations

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in it, they will not to the military part. It's a matter of

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leadership, I think it's do-able. Perhaps this is a useful reminder.

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It's a dangerous roll-out there. People have to be more engaged on

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this strategic question about what it is that the West, NATO, whatever

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this conglomerate is, should be doing. Is it time to change its

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role? It has changed, from the place it was going to go after the

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Soviets, to this incredibly diverse organisation. America almost

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realised that this Libyan war is Britain and France's adventure. It

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is for oil, contract and money. 1% of Libyan oil goes to America. Most

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of it is to Europeans. They realise that. If it's your commercial

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interests, you go and do it and do it properly. To run out of

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ammunition? Imagine the European sending troops than running out of

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ammunition, saying, please, America, give us a subsidised ammunition.

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don't understand the oil argument. They are selling the oil fine.

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do they want to topple him? He was the darling of Britain, his son, he

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was the best guest of the British government here. Tony Blair spoke

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during the week about this whole issue. He said that countries have

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to be involved and they have to be involved personally if they are

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going to be involved at all. He was also asked about kick -- dictators,

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courting them on the one hand and tried to depose them on the other.

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He said, when you are caught in them, you caught them for what you

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want to get from it. But times change, if they don't behave...

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Change in three years? Tony Blair was the personal guest of Gaddafi

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whenever he goes to Libya. And Sarkozy. And the nuclear weapons.

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On the NATO point there is an alternative. It would make the

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British Screen, but it's a European, defence policy. Look at France and

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Britain, they work very well together. Give them a chance. There

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will, eventually, let's give them until Christmas? Would you? Until

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Armageddon, I think. I was amazed when William Hague said this war in

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Libya could go beyond Christmas. Imagine that? This war could go

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beyond Christmas. �1 million every day and we don't know. What kind of

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estimation is this? What kind of calculation is this? They can't

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believe? They should look for a political solution. OK, we can't

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just bomb forever. There's nothing to bomb in Libya. They bombed

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civilian ships the other day, an airport. What are they doing?

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Gaddafi used to have only 35 ageing Mirage fighters. They destroyed

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them. What are they bombing? They should find a solution to this.

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Arabs need to play a part. They are useless. I agree with you there,

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the Arab League supported this UN resolution, 1973, whatever it was.

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The Arab League countries are up to their neck and arms, the best arms

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possible. They got lots of idle soldiers, not very good ones, they

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are good at using them to suppress their own people. But have they

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contributed anything in material or money? I think Qatar has done it a

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bit, and that's it. The Arabs after initially -- absolutely awful, they

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expect lots of money and arms from America. You know why they buy

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their arms? For commissions, corruption. And the British

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government knows that. The American government also knows that. It's

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not arms to use for good purposes, it's for commissions. That's the

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problem. Let's go back to the United States. The relationship now

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between the White House and the Pentagon. Well, there is discord

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about Afghanistan in particular. In general, when the changes were made,

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changing the Secretary of Defence and the head of the CIA, the

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important characteristic that the National Security Adviser said they

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were looking for was essentially if everyone can still play nice to get

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there. They know everybody shooting at each other sideways, that the

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whole peace thing will run out. Over Afghanistan and the withdrawal

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of Afghanistan, there is some tension. I think Obama has figured

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out that the surge has not produced the fancy results that were hoped

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for and promised. So, how fast is the withdrawal? Its 100,000

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American troops. How fast are they going to come out? Will it be a big

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withdrawal? I think people agree on the direction of travel, it's just

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how fast. General Petraeus, one of the slower, now at the CIA and not

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in charge of this policy, Leon Panetta or is the new head of

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defence and is more likely to agree with Obama, let's go.

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That's all been a bit hot and heavy. Let's look at something completely

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different and maybe a birthday party. Prince Philip was 90

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yesterday. He's the longest serving Consort of all time. He says he's

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done his bit and he wants to take life a little bit more easily. But

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will he? Now, he won't, apparently. If you see his diary, I'm only 70

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and I feel a total elderly cripple compared to this man. Well, I am an

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elderly cripple. But there he is, ramrod straight, always wearing

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that enormous bearskin. It's fantastic, I love him to bits.

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the gaffes? Or especially? I was in China, when he said the slit the I

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-- slitty eye thing. We all waxed furious. It so insulting to the

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Chinese. And the Chinese could not give a fig, they are terribly

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racist themselves, they have never been afflicted with political

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correctness. One of them said to me, why are you so excited about this?

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I said, we feel it might offend you. He didn't exactly laugh, but I

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could see him going like this. I love him to bits. Big news in this

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country, but do they care in France? No, why should we? It's

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just the birthday of another 19 year-old. I really like his gaffes,

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I think that's the best thing of him. At least he's not politically

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correct. Perhaps they would pay attention, other than they would

:23:50.:24:00.
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like to have, you know, where there, the man at the back, the shadow of

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his life. How it should be. Go to Saudi, where we cannot see their

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wives are tall. That is taboo. -- their wives at all. Sheikh Moser,

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incredibly glamorous and very in public, she has shocked all of the

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traditional societies. But at least Qatar is moving ahead, which is

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great. My best story for Philip is that there was some trade union MP

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who was at some reception. Phillips said, You are an MP? What did you

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do before that? And he said, I was a union official. He said, but the

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The union officials said, what did you do before you got this job? He

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