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Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Today, we are discussing | :00:33. | :00:40. | |
Syria, Libya and the future of NATO. And also Prince Philip at the age | :00:40. | :00:47. | |
of 90. My guests today are Dame Ann Leslie of the Daily Mail. Atth. | :00:47. | :00:53. | |
Abdel Bari Atwan. And Jeff McAllister, the American writer. We | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
want to start with Syria which is torn between terror and defiance. | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
As the regime cracks down on its own people. Even the United Nations | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
Secretary General is not able to get President Assad to pick up the | :01:06. | :01:13. | |
phone. Let us begin with Syria, just what is to be done. What are | :01:13. | :01:17. | |
your thoughts on where it can go from here? | :01:17. | :01:23. | |
It is a disaster. The situation is deteriorating week after week. On | :01:23. | :01:29. | |
Friday we saw a bloody massacre. The regime is decided to crush the | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
people by force. It is a bloody circle, every Friday people are | :01:33. | :01:40. | |
calling for reforms, demonstrating, to live as a human. What they are | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
faced with, live ammunition. Up to 100 people are killed every Friday. | :01:46. | :01:52. | |
The following day, we have the funeral. On Saturday, army forces, | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
tanks, open fire on those people participating in those funerals. | :01:57. | :02:07. | |
The problem is, now, the Syrian forces are using helicopters. There | :02:07. | :02:12. | |
are three scenarios. The first, or they've regime to reduce serious | :02:12. | :02:21. | |
reform, which is unlikely. Second, we can have a civil war as in Libya. | :02:21. | :02:28. | |
I think this is the most likely. The third option is to have a North | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
Korea, at a regime which is completely isolated, using the iron | :02:33. | :02:39. | |
fist against its own people. We do not know. It is open for all of | :02:39. | :02:44. | |
these scenarios except reform. What is the difference between | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
Syria and Libya when it comes to the international response? | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
For it is a much bigger country, it is more important in terms of where | :02:53. | :03:00. | |
it is in the Middle East. It has also got a more complicated society. | :03:00. | :03:07. | |
Because it has Christian's, a middle-class whether women dress | :03:07. | :03:17. | |
:03:17. | :03:20. | ||
like us. It is not so tribal. It is trouble in the sense that the | :03:20. | :03:30. | |
:03:30. | :03:32. | ||
Assads are a tribe. And they belong to a set but then Shia. Assad, when | :03:32. | :03:38. | |
he came in, he was an ophthalmologist at the Eye Hospital | :03:38. | :03:45. | |
here. He seemed quite a sweet. When he came in after the death of his | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
bloodthirsty dad, he started talking about reforms, this was in | :03:50. | :03:58. | |
2003. But, blood will out. His father kept control of Syria by | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
just slaughtering everybody who objected to him. The most famous | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
was in Hamah where the Muslim Brotherhood group were getting a | :04:08. | :04:16. | |
bit too uppity. And, 20,000 people were massacred. And as opposed his | :04:16. | :04:24. | |
son is thinking, it is not going to world -- work, this reform business. | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
I suppose the only way is to follow dad. I believe his brother is even | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
more bloodthirsty and he is in charge of the security services. | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
will not answer the phone to the United Nations, he is not listening | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
to Hillary Clinton. People coming out of there are say it is about | :04:43. | :04:49. | |
oil and why isn't the international community coming in there? That is | :04:49. | :04:54. | |
unfair. This is a miserable situation. Do not forget the Libyan | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
intervention is not a success. There are limits to the capacity to | :04:58. | :05:05. | |
bomb regimes and do what you want. It may get to the stage where the | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
international community feels it absolutely must. Unlike Dad with | :05:09. | :05:17. | |
Hamah, this is the error of the internet. It is hard to believe for | :05:17. | :05:27. | |
me that Syria could become a North Korea enclave. Turkey, you should | :05:27. | :05:35. | |
hear what Recep Tayyip Erdogan is saying. As the numbers of refugees | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
are growing too many thousands, they may even try to create an | :05:39. | :05:48. | |
enclave inside Syria to protect refugees. I think there is too much | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
movement for Syria to ever be sealed off. Will the Turks actually | :05:53. | :05:58. | |
want to intervene, they have the troops and capacity. The will of | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
the community is the question. key thing is Iran and Turkey, not | :06:03. | :06:10. | |
Britain. We do not have the means actually. Look at NATO. It will | :06:10. | :06:20. | |
:06:20. | :06:22. | ||
take another few weeks, months. Syria, President Assad will fall. | :06:22. | :06:28. | |
But with how much blood? Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he changed his | :06:28. | :06:37. | |
speech entirely. Iran and Turkey offered two different political | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
models for the whole Arab world. For do you think the people, a lot | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
of these protesters then this arab spring have been very young. Is | :06:46. | :06:54. | |
this being driven by a social networking? They do share, what is | :06:54. | :07:01. | |
happening in the Arab world, they do share pictures. All the talk | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
about Al-Qaeda being behind, being responsible for this anger. | :07:06. | :07:15. | |
:07:16. | :07:18. | ||
Actually, these young people are asking for the same thing. | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
serin -- sectarian tensions have been built up, it is the only way | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
someone like him can hang on to power without slaughter. You can | :07:27. | :07:32. | |
have rhetoric all over the place. It doesn't work if it doesn't | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
fasten on to something real. For example, now, the Christian | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
community are getting worried. They'd do not know what will happen | :07:43. | :07:52. | |
when he falls. They fear they will be persecuted, and Ancient | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
committee. The one thing you could say about the Assad regime, it is | :07:57. | :08:07. | |
secular. Secular societies actually are better for religious minorities | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
than societies where everybody belongs to a single faith. | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
dementia and Libya. I want to come back to you. The situation in Libya | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
has not been a bed of roses either and isn't going well. But, there | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
are branches being offered to Gaddafi as well. Reporters on the | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
scene said there does seem to be a movement perhaps towards Gaddafi, | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
the rebels seem to think they are going into the endgame. Would you | :08:36. | :08:43. | |
agree? Now, I disagree completely. We haven't seen a concrete peace | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
plan for Libya for the last four mums. There were talks about | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
crashing Gaddafi, changing the regime, killing him, assassinated | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
him, bombing his headquarters. We have never seen an olive branch | :08:57. | :09:04. | |
extended to him by any superpower. It seems nowadays, because they | :09:04. | :09:13. | |
realise that, four immense -- months of bombardment. There is no | :09:13. | :09:19. | |
end game. They are saying the best way is for Gaddafi to leave. I | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
think this is a sign of fatigue among NATO. They now realise | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
bombing will not solve the problem and Gaddafi is still holding up. | :09:28. | :09:37. | |
This is a dilemma for them. Fatigue, yes. Apparently, that is what MI6 | :09:37. | :09:43. | |
says, he is on the run. Sleeping in a given a hospital every night. | :09:43. | :09:53. | |
:09:53. | :10:00. | ||
you were in his plays, where would you go? It is like Ban Ki-Moon | :10:00. | :10:10. | |
tried to get access to a sad. Nobody wants him. Who will offer | :10:10. | :10:14. | |
him a safe haven? People have been trying to get him out for four | :10:14. | :10:24. | |
:10:24. | :10:25. | ||
months. He has not been interested. Where would he go? Zimbabwe? He can | :10:25. | :10:32. | |
come to Birmingham, he would be extremely welcome. Is there an | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
expectation in the international committee that we expect to sort | :10:34. | :10:41. | |
these things more quickly, but they have become more complicated? | :10:41. | :10:51. | |
is the origin of the Powell doctrine. You can order the sorties | :10:51. | :10:57. | |
but what you do if it does not work out nicely in the short term? | :10:57. | :11:02. | |
Military tools are a blunt instrument. Unless you actually | :11:02. | :11:08. | |
take over the country. Even in the Iraq which did not turn out so well. | :11:08. | :11:12. | |
When his intervention happened, it really was because it looked like | :11:12. | :11:19. | |
it was a humanitarian disaster and they could do nothing. They could | :11:19. | :11:25. | |
have done nothing. Politically, they felt they couldn't. Now you | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
have television showing everything. People said something must be done. | :11:30. | :11:36. | |
One of the worst cries you can inspire, something can be done. I | :11:36. | :11:46. | |
:11:46. | :11:47. | ||
was very against the Libyan intervention in the first place. | :11:47. | :11:53. | |
This is going to be a disaster, as I said. There will be mission creep. | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
A word not often used. It is not going to work. There are other ways | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
of dealing with it. We never bothered, with massacres going on | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
elsewhere, because there wasn't daily television. You mentioned | :12:08. | :12:13. | |
Robert Gates. He is the outgoing American Defence Secretary. In an | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
outspoken speech he described the future for the organisation as dim | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
and dismal and hinted future American administrations might not | :12:21. | :12:27. | |
be so willing to help out their European allies. Is he right? | :12:27. | :12:37. | |
:12:37. | :12:37. | ||
would say, yes, yes, and know. I think anyone of his written foreign | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
policy stories has probably written the European allies are not doing | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
enough to help NATO, not spending as much as the Americans. And it is | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
true. It has been a persistent imbalance in the alliance. Since | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
September 2001, European defence budgets had declined 15%, the | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
proportion the Americans pay for NATO is now some 25% when it used | :12:59. | :13:05. | |
to be 50% at the height of the Cold War. If it is going to work, you | :13:05. | :13:11. | |
see in Libya, they can only do 150 sorties a day. Americans have to | :13:11. | :13:17. | |
provide the bombs because the British and French do not have them. | :13:17. | :13:22. | |
So they are paying their way? Europe is not paid its way. It | :13:22. | :13:32. | |
But without one trillion dollars spent in Iraq, maybe the Americans | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
would have more money to spend. Aware it was the Soviets coming | :13:36. | :13:42. | |
across, everybody understood and 80's mission. Now it is Libya, | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
Afghanistan, what does that have to do with NATO? No one quite | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
understands. Is Europe the poor relative now in NATO? It depends. | :13:52. | :14:02. | |
:14:02. | :14:02. | ||
Look at Libya. America, rightly so, is taking the idea that we are | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
there, but France and Britain are pulling their weight. But we don't | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
have the money to do what we used to do full stops and the other | :14:08. | :14:12. | |
countries are not pulling their weight. Its 28 members, they all | :14:12. | :14:17. | |
agree to go to Libya, only a third is participating in the strikes. | :14:17. | :14:22. | |
a lot of people are not even taking part, is that the crux? They | :14:22. | :14:26. | |
thought it would be a picnic in Libya. In 10 days, it will be | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
finished. That is the problem, underestimation. They thought that | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
Gaddafi would collapse after a few cruise missiles, 150 cruise | :14:34. | :14:39. | |
missiles, he would raise the white flag. That did not happen. Only | :14:39. | :14:44. | |
eight out of 28 have committed themselves in Libya. Britain is | :14:45. | :14:53. | |
losing �1 million every day in Libya. That's the end game. That | :14:53. | :14:58. | |
was one of my arguments about not going into Libya. But even when the | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
NATO allies are putting boots on the ground, Germans, the Germans | :15:03. | :15:10. | |
will not fight after 4:30pm. They have to have their teeth. They are | :15:10. | :15:18. | |
basically pretty useless. Are you sure it is the Germans that want to | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
have tea? The British command their afternoon tea! There afternoon | :15:22. | :15:31. | |
break. I'm going to use a rude word, so I'll try to rephrase this. The | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
Americans must be rather annoyed with Europe. Which pours scorn on | :15:37. | :15:44. | |
everything America stands for and does, cheers at it, and then expect | :15:44. | :15:47. | |
America to do all of the heavy lifting for them. And they will | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
still abuse America. I'm with Robert Gates. This is a military | :15:52. | :16:00. | |
alliance. It is not a do-gooding alliance. It's not an alliance for | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
taking small children to school. I remember Condoleezza Rice saying, | :16:04. | :16:12. | |
ages ago, the role of the B 52s is not to carry small children to | :16:12. | :16:17. | |
their local kindergarten. And this is one of the problems. It's a | :16:17. | :16:22. | |
military alliance. And yet half the people in it, half of the nations | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
in it, they will not to the military part. It's a matter of | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
leadership, I think it's do-able. Perhaps this is a useful reminder. | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
It's a dangerous roll-out there. People have to be more engaged on | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
this strategic question about what it is that the West, NATO, whatever | :16:40. | :16:45. | |
this conglomerate is, should be doing. Is it time to change its | :16:45. | :16:52. | |
role? It has changed, from the place it was going to go after the | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
Soviets, to this incredibly diverse organisation. America almost | :16:55. | :17:01. | |
realised that this Libyan war is Britain and France's adventure. It | :17:01. | :17:10. | |
is for oil, contract and money. 1% of Libyan oil goes to America. Most | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
of it is to Europeans. They realise that. If it's your commercial | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
interests, you go and do it and do it properly. To run out of | :17:18. | :17:23. | |
ammunition? Imagine the European sending troops than running out of | :17:23. | :17:29. | |
ammunition, saying, please, America, give us a subsidised ammunition. | :17:29. | :17:36. | |
don't understand the oil argument. They are selling the oil fine. | :17:36. | :17:44. | |
do they want to topple him? He was the darling of Britain, his son, he | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
was the best guest of the British government here. Tony Blair spoke | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
during the week about this whole issue. He said that countries have | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
to be involved and they have to be involved personally if they are | :17:54. | :18:00. | |
going to be involved at all. He was also asked about kick -- dictators, | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
courting them on the one hand and tried to depose them on the other. | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
He said, when you are caught in them, you caught them for what you | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
want to get from it. But times change, if they don't behave... | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
Change in three years? Tony Blair was the personal guest of Gaddafi | :18:16. | :18:23. | |
whenever he goes to Libya. And Sarkozy. And the nuclear weapons. | :18:23. | :18:33. | |
:18:33. | :18:34. | ||
On the NATO point there is an alternative. It would make the | :18:34. | :18:41. | |
British Screen, but it's a European, defence policy. Look at France and | :18:41. | :18:47. | |
Britain, they work very well together. Give them a chance. There | :18:47. | :18:53. | |
will, eventually, let's give them until Christmas? Would you? Until | :18:53. | :19:02. | |
Armageddon, I think. I was amazed when William Hague said this war in | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
Libya could go beyond Christmas. Imagine that? This war could go | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
beyond Christmas. �1 million every day and we don't know. What kind of | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
estimation is this? What kind of calculation is this? They can't | :19:15. | :19:20. | |
believe? They should look for a political solution. OK, we can't | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
just bomb forever. There's nothing to bomb in Libya. They bombed | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
civilian ships the other day, an airport. What are they doing? | :19:30. | :19:35. | |
Gaddafi used to have only 35 ageing Mirage fighters. They destroyed | :19:35. | :19:44. | |
them. What are they bombing? They should find a solution to this. | :19:44. | :19:51. | |
Arabs need to play a part. They are useless. I agree with you there, | :19:51. | :19:56. | |
the Arab League supported this UN resolution, 1973, whatever it was. | :19:56. | :20:01. | |
The Arab League countries are up to their neck and arms, the best arms | :20:01. | :20:09. | |
possible. They got lots of idle soldiers, not very good ones, they | :20:09. | :20:12. | |
are good at using them to suppress their own people. But have they | :20:12. | :20:19. | |
contributed anything in material or money? I think Qatar has done it a | :20:19. | :20:26. | |
bit, and that's it. The Arabs after initially -- absolutely awful, they | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
expect lots of money and arms from America. You know why they buy | :20:31. | :20:34. | |
their arms? For commissions, corruption. And the British | :20:34. | :20:41. | |
government knows that. The American government also knows that. It's | :20:41. | :20:46. | |
not arms to use for good purposes, it's for commissions. That's the | :20:46. | :20:52. | |
problem. Let's go back to the United States. The relationship now | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
between the White House and the Pentagon. Well, there is discord | :20:56. | :21:03. | |
about Afghanistan in particular. In general, when the changes were made, | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
changing the Secretary of Defence and the head of the CIA, the | :21:06. | :21:11. | |
important characteristic that the National Security Adviser said they | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
were looking for was essentially if everyone can still play nice to get | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
there. They know everybody shooting at each other sideways, that the | :21:18. | :21:23. | |
whole peace thing will run out. Over Afghanistan and the withdrawal | :21:23. | :21:27. | |
of Afghanistan, there is some tension. I think Obama has figured | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
out that the surge has not produced the fancy results that were hoped | :21:31. | :21:36. | |
for and promised. So, how fast is the withdrawal? Its 100,000 | :21:36. | :21:41. | |
American troops. How fast are they going to come out? Will it be a big | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
withdrawal? I think people agree on the direction of travel, it's just | :21:46. | :21:53. | |
how fast. General Petraeus, one of the slower, now at the CIA and not | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
in charge of this policy, Leon Panetta or is the new head of | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
defence and is more likely to agree with Obama, let's go. | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
That's all been a bit hot and heavy. Let's look at something completely | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
different and maybe a birthday party. Prince Philip was 90 | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
yesterday. He's the longest serving Consort of all time. He says he's | :22:12. | :22:17. | |
done his bit and he wants to take life a little bit more easily. But | :22:17. | :22:25. | |
will he? Now, he won't, apparently. If you see his diary, I'm only 70 | :22:25. | :22:32. | |
and I feel a total elderly cripple compared to this man. Well, I am an | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
elderly cripple. But there he is, ramrod straight, always wearing | :22:37. | :22:43. | |
that enormous bearskin. It's fantastic, I love him to bits. | :22:43. | :22:49. | |
the gaffes? Or especially? I was in China, when he said the slit the I | :22:49. | :22:59. | |
:22:59. | :23:08. | ||
-- slitty eye thing. We all waxed furious. It so insulting to the | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
Chinese. And the Chinese could not give a fig, they are terribly | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
racist themselves, they have never been afflicted with political | :23:16. | :23:22. | |
correctness. One of them said to me, why are you so excited about this? | :23:22. | :23:27. | |
I said, we feel it might offend you. He didn't exactly laugh, but I | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
could see him going like this. I love him to bits. Big news in this | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
country, but do they care in France? No, why should we? It's | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
just the birthday of another 19 year-old. I really like his gaffes, | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
I think that's the best thing of him. At least he's not politically | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
correct. Perhaps they would pay attention, other than they would | :23:50. | :24:00. | |
:24:00. | :24:01. | ||
like to have, you know, where there, the man at the back, the shadow of | :24:01. | :24:09. | |
his life. How it should be. Go to Saudi, where we cannot see their | :24:09. | :24:18. | |
wives are tall. That is taboo. -- their wives at all. Sheikh Moser, | :24:18. | :24:26. | |
incredibly glamorous and very in public, she has shocked all of the | :24:26. | :24:31. | |
traditional societies. But at least Qatar is moving ahead, which is | :24:31. | :24:37. | |
great. My best story for Philip is that there was some trade union MP | :24:37. | :24:44. | |
who was at some reception. Phillips said, You are an MP? What did you | :24:44. | :24:49. | |
do before that? And he said, I was a union official. He said, but the | :24:49. | :24:59. | |
The union officials said, what did you do before you got this job? He | :24:59. | :25:05. |