12/11/2011 Dateline London

you can see more mat. BBC News is available on the internet. Now it

Hello and welcome to the programme from Abu Dhabi, in the Gulf. They

are preparing to welcome the Festival of thinkers, including

Nobel prizewinners, from around the world, to discuss her to make our

world a better place in the 21st century. Our thinkers are Hassan

Fatah, editor of the National, Sultan Al Qassemi, the United Arab

Emirates writer, Kate Dourian and Francis Matthew from the Gulf News.

We will be asking what people here make of the Iranian nuclear

programme. And what next for the Arab Spring? I want to begin by

talking about the mess in the eurozone and what it means for

people here. How concerned of people in the Gulf region about

what is happening in Europe now? People are quite concerned and they

damp well should be. Most immediately, there is the economic

impact it will have. In terms of bonds, southern welfare financing

and such. But just as important, you have something far more

dramatic happening in the region, the Arab Spring and the politics of

it. People are looking for examples and they are looking at how

democracy works. They are asking critical questions about whether

democracy works and if it can fit in this region. As they look at

Europe going through this crisis, there is a lack of clear leadership,

that they are getting scared off, perhaps, and asking complicated

questions. That is an interesting question. One of the questions that

European would say, is it a question of whether the eurozone is

run as a democracy or not. People feel there is a lack of democracy.

It is probably a case of mismanagement. The eurozone is made

a poor countries with varying degrees of economic development.

And Italy and Greece, by some estimates, probably did not even

qualified to enter the eurozone. Now we have the news that the next

Greek Prime Minister is the person that oversaw the Greek entry into

the eurozone and knew about the numbers. It is quite a mess and a

case of mismanagement, I should say. We will get onto the Arab Spring in

a moment. Do you agree that this has not been a good year to look at

the European model when you are looking at democratic models?

Europeans have good models of democracy. Perhaps the eurozone is

management issue is not one of them. And the people that you deal with,

how worried are they about the eurozone? They are worried about

the stock market in the region. It tends to follow Europe and New York.

The sovereign risk has increased. But this region is shielded by

relatively high oil prices. And doing pretty well. They do

fluctuate. They go down a bit when the eurozone is particularly hot.

But they have surpluses. The only problem is that the country's here,

partly as a result of the Arab Spring, are spending more on

infrastructure and social programmes. That requires a higher

oil price and the threshold that they need to meet these commitments

has risen tremendously. That is obviously a risk. I was speaking to

businessmen earlier today in this region. One said that their

business was growing by 10% per year, and the jaw drops. Club that

Qatar, the wealthiest country in the world. -- look at Qatar. You

have not got an integrated wealth corporation counsel like in the

eurozone but there is some council on the economic front, and trade is

increasing. There is a lot of cash splashing around the region and

that is why people are being looked to for bail-outs. We do not have

exposure to sovereign debt, which is where the European banks are at

risk. Exactly the opposite. Nevertheless, Europe is a concern

because they are a huge customer for oil and they are very important

for this region. I think the euro is one of the largest trading areas

and so we have a big interest in a stable euro and we want to see the

problem resolved. What about the idea that oil could be priced in

euros rather than dollars? They that is a complete non-starter. It

has been priced in dollars for a long time. The European project was

a fantastic project. Peace in Europe for 60 years and sovereign

states working together. This is a lesson for everybody that is pretty

solid. It has overreached itself in the management of its currency.

What about the management of the euro? It is a non-starter.

Absolutely. You cannot really switch currencies on the basis of

fluctuations which are transitory. It is the petrol dollar. Everything

is priced in dollars. When you look up the dollar versus the euro at

the moment... Of Iran it sells in euros and in the end, but they have

to take the exchange risk at the same time. -- Iran cells in euros

and the Japanese yen. A report has been released this week confirming

burrows in this region about the Iranian nuclear programme. --

worries. How concerned are people here? There is a lot of scepticism

about the nuclear programme. It is based at the southern tip of Iran,

close to the Gulf states, so that is another red flag. International

monitors are not allowed to access it, which is another red flag. Do

you believe that it is peaceful? Is it secure? That is a completely

different question. Even those doubts and concerns, and it has

been pointed out on this programme and others, it is not just this

Iranian Government that has wanted a nuclear programme. It has gone

back to the 1970s. Given that fact, what should people do about it and

what can be done? It is such a tightrope walk for this region.

They realise the real risk of a nuclear programme. The risks of a

peaceful nuclear programme are just as significant. If you think about

it, a nuclear reactor operating just across the way from here, in

an earthquake zone, using all the technology, and essentially spewing

water into the Gulf, where we derive our water from... And we

have seen what has happened in Japan with the nuclear plant in

that area of seismic activity. There are clear problems with that.

And also there is the problem of the weapons programme which raises

alarm bells. The problem of it at the same time is the reaction. I

think there is a real fear of warfare Kerrigan people want to

avoid that at all costs. -- warfare appearing and people want to avoid

that at all costs. Are you as worried about the reaction from the

United States and possibly Israel as you are about the nuclear

programme? There are chances for things to go wrong, absolutely. I

think it is really time for cool heads to prevail. Right, well, we

are all in favour of cool heads, but have we got bent in Tehran,

Washington, or Israel? -- have we got them? There were talks about

Obama going to war against Iran but they cannot even pay their debts

because they have overspent. Are they seriously thinking about that?

I don't think so but they have a dilemma. There is pressure from

Capitol Hill to do something about Iran because they have had these

issues for years and nothing has changed. They have heard Iran in

some ways because there is no foreign investment and their

projects are running behind. They have not increased their oil and

gas production so they are injured in that sense. Now they cannot even

be paid in Japanese yen and euros because of the ban on financial

transactions, so they are having to barter. The Americans are thinking

of stopping at, which would affect their relationship with China. I

think the last resort would be to ban oil exports by Iran because

then you will save $200 for a barrel of oil. -- you will see.

$200? Possibly. And then oil will be shipped from Saudi Arabia,

Kuwait, Iraq and Iran. For Iran it would be shooting themselves in it

there for it because that is their only outlet for oil exports. --

shooting themselves in the foot. If they could export oil than they

could cause a nuisance. There could be mining of the waters, as we have

seen before. Oil is currently $115 per barrel, roughly. The potential

for oil 2 double is extraordinary. I am not predicting that, but it is

what people say. There is an election coming up in the USA, so

the last thing they want is higher oil prices. In need to balance the

policy against Iran and not harm themselves economically. -- they

need to. They are still the biggest exporters of crude oil and so it

would hurt. And Israel, are they going to stand by it in the wake of

this and say, fine, they are testing. He does not seem to me

that Israel will stand back and do nothing and wait and see. You are

right to say that everybody wants cool heads to prevail, but you

could ask yourself the same question about Tehran. What is the

end of this programme, given the statements that have been made by

the President and so one? -- so on? Firstly, the world is going nuclear.

There are 7 billion people and not enough energy and all over the

world there will be more nuclear power stations. Iran has as much

right as anybody else to go that way. Then you have got this report.

They are apparently quoting new evidence, but the 16th aged and

next to this report was not that impressive. -- 16 page annex to

this report. They are saying that Iran might have the capacity to get

this technology. Sometime, somewhere, nobody knows where. I am

very sceptical of Iran's actual position right now. That is because

Ahmadinejad loves controversy. Unfortunately he is going to an

election in 2012 and once his man to do well. We sometimes forget

that they have sophisticated politics at play. He has a

miserable record and he wants the good nationalist policy to come

through. And Obama has the same issue of elections. We have two

President's, both wanting to clash. That is not cool heads prevailing!

There does not seem to be any appetite for Americans to get

involved in warfare in this region. I don't think there is any capacity

for it, let's be honest. Neither a month electorate or the leadership.

I don't think that is the issue. The issue is something silly, a

mistake happening, that will create something far bigger. That is what

we should really be concerned about. How should we deal with it? When

Dick Cheney did his farewell tour, I was told that the Americans were

told privately that if it was a choice between striking against

Iran or living under the shadow of the Persian nuclear bomb, they

would prefer Iran to be attacked. That is not being said publicly.

Are people prepared for that? Could The onus falls on the Gulf states.

It is their duty to try and talk Iran into allowing monitors. If you

take the extreme measure of striking the nuclear facility, it

is too close to the sea for it not to have an effect on the countries

in the region. There needs to be a much more proactive approach rather

than a reactive approach. Even going back to Ronald Reagan's time,

he said the reason people have weapons is because they are

frightened. If we go to the root cause of this there must be,

presumably, a political solution to suggest to be a run that there is a

way where your economy could thrive and you could rejoin the world

community. I think the Regent will play an important role in that.

There are very clear trade links and historic ties that exist.

remember WikiLeaks. This is all happening in in the wake of the

alleged plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to London and to blow up

the Saudi embassy. WikiLeaks says it was the Saudis who told do

Americans to cut off the head of the snake, referring to Iran. They

want to weaken Iran, particularly with the Americans now withdrawing

from Iraq and, supposedly, redeploying elsewhere in the Gulf.

So you will have the US troop presence. One way of looking at the

history of the past 10 or 15 years is that the United States has

neutralised the two greatest strategic enemies of the Iranian

regime, both in Afghanistan and Iraq, so US policy has not always

produce the result that American policy makers wish. Definitely not.

But say, there is no appetite for ground forces in Iran, but say

there is an air strike on certain specific targets, there will almost

certainly be a counter reaction from Iran. They would love to get

that those American soldiers sitting in Iraq. They could declare

unilaterally that this country has help this happen and launch a

counter-attack. But that is for 2012. In 2013 or 2014, Iran will

still be there, Saudi Arabia will still be there, America will still

be there and everybody will have to get on with it. You cannot stop the

country having nuclear power. You may delay it. Even a strike would

not stop them getting it in the end, it just puts it off for a year or

two. The military option is the wrong answer. As the Arab Spring

turns into the Arab winter, we have new governments in Tunisia,

elections coming up in Egypt and the big changes in Libya, but how

important as the role of women been in this and how important have been

the kinds of dialogues established here such as the festival but we

are here to discuss? The conversation has changed greatly in

the Arab world over the past few months, partly because of what

happened 10 months ago in Tunisia. Certainly, I think the euphoria is

wearing off. I think what people are realising is that a hard work

begins now. This is when you have to build consensus, you have the

build governments, and you have to cultivate the role of law and the

institutions that would protect the rule of law and democracy. For one

thing that people are really worried about here is the Yemen and

the situation there. Explain why this is so concerning here. It is

just down the street. It is at St just down the water as well! And

there are deep ties just between the two countries. Yemen is a place

which has its own resource problems with water, with poverty, with

hunger. Those will only grow worse and worse and more complicated to

deal with and will only impact here further and further. You mean

physically because people will move? Well, potentially. It has so

many different dimensions to it. think Yemen is a problem that has

been neglected and ignored by the region, the world, even the Gulf

states, for far too long. Yemen is running out of water in the next

few years. It needed desalination plants five years ago, not five

years from now. So whoever the government is, there are facts on

the ground which really quite worrying. For the infrastructure is

terrible. Unlike Syria, where the infrastructure is much better,

Turkey, Iraq, there are developed countries around which can trade

much easier than Yemen. There are not rich neighbours that they can

export to. The road infrastructure is abysmal. It is in very bad shape.

That bit think that I raised there, talking about people who are

thinking ahead for what kind of sentry we are going to live in. How

do you think things have changed here in terms of openness to new

ideas, to saying things which a few years ago you would not have said

publicly? It is a slow movement and people forget that this is not a

rapid political switch which is going to change. It is a

generational change which is happening in the Gulf. 60% of the

gold populations are under 25 and they are now taking their place in

society. The only big and Sir for any big Arab government is are you

going to lead those people by giving them education or you going

to be led by a revolution and and Arabs bring? It is two sides of the

coin. The clever guys are the one to are getting ahead of the game

and St you need education, you need to be part of the global world, you

need to be able to get on with the international community. It is

about education. You do have high levels of literacy amongst Women in

places like Morocco, Yemen. It is all changing now but if the look at

the number of women who want seats in the vote, the percentage is far

higher than even in the United States. It is changing but Tunisia

is unique because they have always had empowerment of women. Then you

have Libya way you have a leader who says polygamy should be

reintroduced. You have places like Saudi Arabia where there will be

the collections and a few years down the line women will be allowed

to boat -- in you have elections. - - women will be allowed to vote.

Have you noticed that pick societal change and has the Arab Spring

helped? I think it has made it much further ahead. I think women out

there in Egypt and in other places has put them front of stage. We

have been going through this generational change for a long time.

Even in Saudi Arabia, women are becoming breadwinners and they are

becoming integral to the economics of the family. They are still

developing a degree of economic power. It will take time. Any kind

of controlled change takes a long, long time. But you begin to see the

seeds of that change all through the region. That is part of what

outsiders fail to get. They know that Arab culture goes back for

centuries but the state his MD 40 years old. That is part of it, it

is a new state in an old culture. always say that our hardware is

very advance in the Gulf but the soft when used to be updated!

is the software being updated? Are you one of those optimists? Syria

is going to go through a very difficult time. It will be patchy.

Different things in different places. Obviously, at the Gulf

states differ, even internally. Syria is a very advanced country.

Women are very educated. You have the religious section of society,

you have the Conservatives as well as the Liberals. It is really a

diverse culture on its own. I do not worry about Syria in the long

run. I worry about countries that take away the rights of, for

example, are women, because in the end women will have to raise their

kids and to give a child does not see his mother and his sister equal

to his father and brother, then we have a big problem there. Do you

think we can end on a note of optimism that there is considerable

optimism in this region for that evolutionary change? In the long

term, yes. There is a lot of pain to go through. It depends how much

pain is could be ensured. Iraq is an example of enforced change and a

miserable 10 years of imposed civil war, almost. Syria and Yemen are

heading, I think, for failed states. The role model seems to be Somalia.

The other countries, it is exciting. After all these miserable decades

of dictatorship, and now every Arab knows that change can happen. So,

even if this one goes wrong, the next one can be better planned.

had been struck by how many young Arabs when you talk about here race

they do talk about the young man who killed himself in Tunisia and

sparked off the Arab Spring. have a Nobel Peace Prize winner

from the Yemen, which is the first. In Islam, women are allowed to have

control of their finances so if you take that a bit further, maybe we

need a women's Arab Spring in the future. It is going to take a long