04/02/2012 Dateline London


04/02/2012

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it should be re-run. I will be back at 1 o'clock. It is

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Britain in Europe, had attached or detached is the Cameron government

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from the problems in the EU? Syria and the UN, plus Mitt Romney moves

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steps closer to the Republican nomination, but can his money by

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him the presidency? With me are John Fisher Burns, Mustapha

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Karkouti, Agnes Poirier it, and Polly Toynbee. Just before

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Christmas, David Cameron made himself a hero in the Conservative

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Party for standing up to unacceptable parts of the European

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project. It seemed to have him in the opinion poll. Things are more

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complicated. How well is the British Prime Minister handling the

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balancing act between what is British supporters expect and what

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is needed to have a real say in the running of the you? It was an on

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Beatle that he suddenly imposed on stopping everybody using European

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institutions to do what we desperately need them to do, which

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is to save the eurozone. Our economic figures show us on the

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point of absolute peril, likely to go into a double-dip recession and

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to have 0.3% growth this year. With all of the caveat that whiffed the

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eurozone collapses and things get worse, we are in for an appalling

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economic situation. -- a caveat that with the eurozone. Why was

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camera and saying, make it as difficult as possible? He was being

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obstreperous to please his backbenchers. Now he has had to

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reverse it. He was trying to stop the financial transaction tax.

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was not part of it. That was not part of what was being proposed. He

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was using the European institutions. I fit we should go ahead with it

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but we are not obliged. -- I think. There is no prospect of that

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happening across Europe except with each country individually. It would

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be immensely popular here. That is a separate issue. If you veto the

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use of institutions that would have helped us, you have to back off. He

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looks ridiculous. One of the big questions is how Britain is

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regarded, or if Britain is regarded. How is it seen in France? He was a

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hero with the Tory party but everywhere else, he was a flu. --

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through. We do not know what the British position on Europe is any

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more. Do the British know where they stand? I guess, they must feel

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as unsettled as David Cameron himself. One day he says, we will

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veto everything went actually, it was in the country's interests to

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go along with the treaty in terms of physical unity and integration.

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Now he says, actually, perhaps we are going to because we are still

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in Europe. In the end it does not help anyone. When he says that

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Europeans have got to get their act together and when he makes comments

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about Germany during war, he is not alone in thinking that. There are a

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lot of people who think those things. Most importantly, Europe

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has not got its act together on Greece, for example. When Sarkozy

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said, you are not even in the eurozone, so stop lecturing us, you

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need to say, we are going to withdraw totally form Europe. At

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least that would be a clear position. To be on the margin of

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Europe and still telling people what they should be dealing is not

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possible. We are going to talk about Syria. Hillary Clinton was

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saying this week that Europe and the US are united. When she talks

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about Europe, does Britain fit into any of that? Given that many

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Americans have no views on this whatsoever, do the American

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political classes care whether Britain is a big player in Europe?

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They have favoured the European project. They have always been

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unhappy with Euro-scepticism in the UK. It seems to me, Mr Sarkozy was

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being somewhat sharp in his remarks about Cameron. 40% of Britain's

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trade is with Europe. Britain is involved in the IMF. Our banks are

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involved. To suggest that the British Prime Minister should stay

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out of this, it is none of his business, is, to my mind, absurd.

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The other thing I would say is that Cameron his, as you said, in a

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difficult position. It is a difficult balancing act. The

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imperative for him his to make sure that Euro-scepticism in the Tory

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party does not rise up and bite him. He does not have a manoeuvring room.

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Iping he is a naturally -- naturally a Euro-sceptic. We are an

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integral part of the European project. We depend on them for

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trade. Our economy is tottering on the edge because of them. He played

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to them by pulling us out of the gripping, be conservative grouping

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in Europe. At a time when he should be in clover in Europe, when he has

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got Conservative governments, people who should be his natural

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allies, he had alienated them all. Isn't the underlying issue here, we

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have seen extraordinary job creation figures in the US this

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week. This is great for the world economy. Europe as a whole is

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simply not creating jobs, it is not working. It is not now, but I think

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it is coming. I must, if they want to get out of this crisis. -- they

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must. To go back to the position of Mr Cameron, although he is

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reversing his position now, and he is after all a politician, now he

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is listening to the City of London rather than his own party and

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backbenchers and all of that. That was his troubled, ever since he

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made a declaration under tremendous pressure from the Conservative

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Party. All of Europe's finances is here, more or less, of course plus

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Germany. How do you get out of this situation with the City of London?

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Are a final thought on Sarkozy. The fact is, Britain in front --

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Britain and France have a lot in common in terms of security. How

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much is it plain to the gallery because he is facing an imminent

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election? -- playing. They had this amazing relationship, Cameron and

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Sarkozy, but it was just a fling, a short affair. Remember them are a

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few months ago, in Benghazi, both of them were acclaimed by the

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Libyans. From there it was downhill. In December, whether Sarkozy

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refused -- when Sarkozy refused to shake the hand of Cameron... It is

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difficult to qualify -- disqualify so cosy. It is probably true that

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he is on the way out. He was saying, if I am not elected you will never

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see me again. He is a formidable campaigner, so he might be there

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again and they will have to patch things up.

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A question of what to do about Syria has been resounding around

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the United Nations this week. Russia is adamant that any formal

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moves to demand regime change will cause problems. This comes as

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violence at a football match in Egypt suggests that there could be

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trouble to impose law and order. What are the chances for peace and

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a democratic future in these two Arab count -- countries? The

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attacks in Homs, whatever the state media said, would very much like

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revenge and an attempt to blame dissidents for the violence against

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ordinary people? I think it is more like that -- than that. It is using

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violence to increased -- increase the fear of the regime started. It

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does not seem there is any other policy for the regime, apart from

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creating this multiple fear. For minorities, fear of the minorities,

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for the majorities, fear of instability, for the neighbourhoods,

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the fear of have it. It is more than revenge. It is peace and

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parcel of its strategy to control the country via the use of force

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and creating fear. It is not working. It is not going to work. I

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am surprised how the Russians have accepted the situation. They may

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have interests in the region, fair enough, but they have to not only -

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- they have to send a high-level negotiator of theirs and talk to

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President Assad. Are you saying it is not in Russia's long-term

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interests that Syrians know what is going on at the UN? That it is not

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in their long-term interest to do with President Assad in this way?

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The regime does not deserve to be called it regime. It is more of an

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guying, it is a family, people around it are fighting to protect

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their own interests. -- it is more of a gang. They are not necessarily

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representing large numbers. We all know that Damascus and Homs are

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still quiet, but this is middle- class businessmen and the nouveau

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riche, who were created with the regime and as a result of the

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regime, these people will change their position once they see where

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things are moving. They are not fully supportive of the regime.

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dilemma is what to do about it, if anything? There was a sort of

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euphoria about Western observers saying is in the Arab Spring

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wonderful? Night we are realising that revolutions are painful and

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cost terrible suffering. It makes us look back and say, what a

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miracle it was that when the Communist regime spell, they felt

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so peacefully? How extraordinary that South Africa managed such a

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peaceful transition. You look at the real pain of revelation and

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anyone thinks revolutions are wonderful must be thinking, how

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long does it take to get to stability? Lead at Libya, look at

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everywhere. It feels pretty miserable and those people are

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unbelievably brave, who are willing to fight so hard for freedom

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knowing it is a long and slow process. What ever written might

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think, it is going to be the Syrians themselves who will do it?

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Nobody wants to intervene in Syria, we all know this, but that is why

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it the Russians have overshadowed the veto, they have and sexually

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vetoed anything, but they should abstain -- they haven't actually

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vetoed anything. Bashar al-Assad is going to go. We don't know when,

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but the region is going to collapse. It's not because historically Syria

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is the last Allied in the region, but they must go, it doesn't make

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sense, especially when Turkey is so ready to play a role in the region.

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Iran is the black shadow because it is helping Bashar al-Assad, but it

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is terrible to see, really, especially from here, because Syria

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is so close and yet so far, and we are not going to do anything, and

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it will be much bloodier before it gets better, and both sides have

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gone so far. One of them has to go. I have to thoughts about it,.

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have to thoughts about it. The first is Mr Putin's manipulation of

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elections, which causes me to think how little has changed in Russia,

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having lived there for several years, and the fundamental

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disposition of the government of Russia. Their recent performance on

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Syria is just another example of that. Where is the principle? Where

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is the sense of concern for the people and for human rights? Beyond

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that, I would say, if we have learned anything at all from the

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events of the last year, and it would be a certain sense of modesty

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about very early limits to the influence we can bring to bear on

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any of this. It is way beyond our management. Yes, we should of

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course support un Security Council resolutions -- UN Security Council

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resolutions, sanctions by all means, but look at Le -- Libya, where we

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spent billions of dollars bombing, I lived and the bombs for two

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months last summer in Libya -- under the bombs, in the name of

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people and human rights, and what have we bought about? We now read

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day after day about torture and murder in the prisons of the rebels.

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Have we really brought about any fundamental change? So I would say

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we would be well cautioned to draw a lesson from... Learning the

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lessons of history, I would be shocked if that happened. Let stand

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back and see there is an internal dynamic, it is tragic, but it is

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entirely foolish of us to think... I am not that worried about Libya,

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to tell the truth. If you watch so many Libyan satellite switched

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sprang out after the fall of Gadaffi, the debate which is going

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on is so wonderful, it gives you hope that there is a huge number of

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people who are talking about exactly what you have said, but

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also, there are presenting new looks, ideas, and pressing the

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opposition to do something about it. Going back to Syria, finally, if I

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may, yes, it is difficult, we all agree that international help his

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shortcoming, -- is a shortcoming, but I think if Iran continues its

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support to President a sad, in light of the glowing influence in

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Iraq itself -- President Assad, this is very frightening for a lot

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of people in the region. Iranian influence in Iraq.

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should invite Turkey to come into Syria with other forces, those who

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are willing to come, to counterbalance the Iranian

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influence in Iraq -- in Syria. Otherwise, the third alternative,

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this beautiful country will be left to disintegrate. You are talking

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about 23 million people, which is very tragic, I think, if that is to

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happen. Let's move on because Mitt Romney handsomely won the Florida

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primary over his only significant rival Newt Gingrich this week but

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only after spelling -- spending millions of dollars on negative

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advertising. What do we make of this Republican campaign and what

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kind of fight will it come down to in the autumn? It looks as if

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Romney is now the pre-eminent candidate again, but he has still

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not sealed the deal. When we heard about US employment figures

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yesterday, it made me think that the wisest thing to say about these

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elections is what we heard all those years ago during the first

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Clinton election, it's the economy, stupid. If the economy begins a

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serious recovery, particularly jobs, which has been a real political

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issue, then a Obama for all his weak performance in the opinion

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polls, up against a rather dubious crew of Republican opponents, I

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would have thought would have a relatively easy, or easier ride

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back to the White House. If the economy doesn't improve, of course,

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who knows? But the Republicans are not doing themselves a huge amount

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of favours with the nature of the campaign being conducted. I think

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the Americans are very disappointed, and in some respects alienated by

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the campaign, and by these vast amounts of money. There we have

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seen before, and thank God for it, money does not necessarily decide

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elections in the United States. Prospero. If you are not credible,

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it doesn't matter how much you spend. Having a lot of money

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probably helps. It is not insignificant, but with the

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negative some of these Republican candidates carry, it seems to me

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that for all the gigantic sums of money, I mean they are spending

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more in single campaigns for the primaries in Florida, for example,

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than political parties in the UK spend on an entire general election.

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It is interesting, this one big theme that comes through Western

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demand -- politics at the moment, fairness, what is there, how the

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super rich pay their way, which is the French campaign as well. This

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is a big discussion people are having all over the place. That is

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right, it is, but to go back, we are not talking about the

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presidential election in the US, but the primaries, which is often

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not covered in Europe, because, look at the negative ads, for

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instance. I want to urge everyone to read Democracy On America again

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because he talked about America being like children. Did you see

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the one way Gingrich was telling us that Romney was the worst candidate

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possible, and in the end, it ended with "and he speaks French!".

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LAUGHTER what more do you want? Jon Huntsman speaks Chinese. It is

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not just speaking French but foreign languages which is dubious.

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When you are from Europe it looks so silly. To me it is not serious,

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the US primaries, and besides, as he was saying, a Obama book will be

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re-elected, thank God. Is he? to delight for parade of Republican

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fruitcakes exposed to the world -- delight for parade. You couldn't

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hope for a better row of complete lunatics. Terrifying, and you are

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not quite sure if you want to Democrat to win, where the want the

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very maddest of them to be selected to make them least electable, or

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whether horror of horrors, Newt Gingrich might wonder -- end up in

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the White House which is terrifying. At this time in the world economy.

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It has been one of the moments of the greatest division across the

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Atlantic between Europe and America, way you look at American elections

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with fascinated horror -- where you look. We push ourselves a little

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bit closer as we spend more and more on elections, but the idea of

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that kind of attack advertising, spending millions on it, that is

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not the European way yet. We in the Middle-East including Iran and

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Israel as well, not only that, find these campaigns always through the

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eyes of, if you like, US-Israel, Basie ambitions rather than the

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money spent. Newt Gingrich said the Palestinians were... He cancelled

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them totally, how can you cancel an issue? That is lunatic, in a way.

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And then Romney In response said, in his first ever visit overseas if

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he is elected said it would be to Israel. You know, to campaign on

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this basis, to induce boats, is totally ridiculous, as the Arab

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people see it -- induce boats so for the Middle-East, the focus of

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that, they feel better with Obama, even though he has done nothing yet.

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Does a barman need to shake things up? As you say, the economy may be

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the determinant -- a bummer. Some people may feel Joe Bighton as

:23:29.:23:33.

vice-president has been dull and it is time to move him on. We know

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Hillary Clinton doesn't want to stay at the State Department. She

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would be the perfect vice- presidential candidate, wouldn't

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she? She would, I think she has more of a job now than she would as

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vice-president. Normally, that is the job we were waiting for the

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White House. Hopefully by the election, but Hillary Clinton will

:23:54.:23:58.

be pushing 70 if she's so says vice-president in a bomber's second

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term. -- if she serves as vice- president in President Obama's

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second term. She may be wondering if she can make a bigger mark as

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Secretary of State or vice- president. The current vice-

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president's experience would suggest that Secretary of State is

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better. The other interesting story this week was, who pays what in tax,

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given the amount that they earn, which is quite astonishing given

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Weir had been talking about bad as bonuses and what is fair and unfair

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-- given we have been talking. will be disastrous for Romney when

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we come to the real election campaign to have paid 13 per cent

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on $45 million, 13 per cent, while every hard-working family in

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America pays their proper taxes up front. I think that will be a fatal

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blow, particularly at this particular stand by -- time, a time

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of... Americans may be feeling they celebrate the rich, but not at this

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time. But is it for Dateline London this week. We're back Centre next

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