21/07/2012 Dateline London

A full news bulletin at 1pm. Now it Welcome to Dateline London. Are we

at a turning-point in Syria? The Olympic Games begins in a few days

faced by a possible strike. And Nelson Mandela have -- at 94. A

model of when to quit. With me are Mustapha Karkouti, the Gulf based

writer and broadcaster, Vincent Magombe of Africa Inform

International, Henry Chu of the LA Times and David Aaronovitch of the

Times. The bomb that struck at the regime of President Assad was seen

as a turning-point in the crisis. But diplomatically at the United

Nations paralysis remains. Are we at the end game for the regime of

and is there anything outsiders can and should do? Mustapha, do people

think this is a turning-point? Information I am getting back from

three major areas of the country, including the capital, is that the

regime is cracking. Last week, the killing of four senior people in

the regime, you are talking about half of the regime killed. These

were run and the intelligence operations. -- run-in -- and

running. 50 % of the regime have been eliminated. Really be tipping

point happened 16 months ago, not now, when the people went on the

street in the south of the country, in Deraa, that was the tipping

point. Even though they risk everything by doing that? Yes,

because we are talking about a regime of 40 years of oppression,

but still people broke their silence. That was really the

tipping point. Since then, the countdown started. What happened

last week is of course a major development because the information

I am getting from inside Syria, maybe 60 % of the country between

5pm and 9 am the regime authorities do not dare to enter. So the regime

itself is losing. If you were somebody in the Syrian army, you

must think, what am I fighting and dying for? It looks like it is

cracking apart. It also looks like it has been done by Syrians

themselves, although the result of outside in -- interference. I love

that last remark, it is being done by Syrians themselves, but I'd -- I

wish that was the case. If I was in the shoes of Assad, I would start

packing and going. If I was a dictator in any of the at -- the

Arab countries, and Africa as well, I would start to do that. But the

remark about doing themselves is very important. I see the

determination of people in the Middle East to change things and

literally, or whether there is support from outside or not, they

will do it. The only thing is, when you talk about Western approaches

to the situation, the West, the way it relates to Africa, forget about

Libya, which is almost an Arab country, but the way it relates to

African countries, I belong, I can now declare my interest, I belong

to a broad movement that has been fighting for democracy in my

country, in Uganda. I have been part of delegations going to the

British Foreign Office. The first thing they will tell us is, we will

only talk to you if you are going to be completely peaceful. You are

not going to do anything else. When I look at the way the British and

the Americans and so on, the Foreign Secretary here, look at

what is happening in Libya first of all, and now in Syria, they are the

first wants to encourage violence. So I think we need the people to do

these things themselves but we need a common international standard in

terms of outside perceptions. don't think anybody watching would

be entirely shocked by the idea of diplomatic double standards, but I

wonder if you feel that all these diplomatic meetings that are going

on, I talked to a member of the Syrian resistance he said, we don't

care what you say, we are going to get on and fight this war by

military means. It seems that whatever happens in the United

Nations or the Foreign Office or Whitehall, that is the way it is

going to be. Because it was an unexpected success to get the

Security Council resolution on Libya, allowing the no-fly zone and

so on, it has led people to think that, whereas we read it as being

successful by and large, people like the Russians breaded in a

completely opposite way and were very alarmed by what happened. It

has been absolutely impossible for Kofi Annan or anybody else to get

any concerted international position on how to reach a

political solution in Syria. Impossible. It has been impossible

to get them to do it. It has therefore been impossible to

pressure the Assad regime. In the early stages of the uprising, to

begin to do the things that might be necessary to itself, to make

possible any kind of resolution, and gradually, and that is why I

agree with Mustapha, the turning point was a long time ago. Since

then we have had a slow progression through the various stages of

regress -- of repression, to the civil war. The civil war could have

been prevented but now, as we do have it, if you are a serial rebel,

a course you are going to say, we are going to do it now. For when I

think of the international co- operation of lack of it towards

Syria, it is because it is a very different kettle of fish to Libya

and other countries. We might want the Assad regime gone, but what

will be in its place and what geopolitical strategy will other

countries have? The US has not decided, Israel has not decided how

to approach the situation. Turkey and 11 and. -- the Lebanon.

Trying to get everybody on board in any camp or other... I think,

whatever outside powers wished to see in Syria, they will not

determine the final situation. It is the people inside who will do

that, certainly. It was only officially declared by the Red

Cross but now we have a civil war situation. There is no civil war

situation yet. Sunni mack are not killing she are and so on. -- the

Shi'ites. There are a lot of Christians and Sunni Muslims and

Alawites supporting the opposition. Two key figures in the opposition

movement are Alawites. Do you think being Syrian, which is a question

we asked about Iraq over the years, do you think being Syrian is the

most important defining characteristic? Certainly. Syria,

since independence, has always been a secular state. There is this

common bond amongst certainly the people and at the Cern -- the same

time the Syrians in general, like the Egyptians and the Tunisians

before them and the Libyans, they are learning politics now. They are

learning how to proceed in fighting the regime. You have exile's

outside, rebels outside, and this happened in the case of Lidiya

inside -- previously, but there is a lot of infighting and nobody

acknowledges a supreme authority. am a bit sceptical about the

Western support for the country. It takes a long time to build a

fighting force within the opposition. Leaving the West on one

side, what you think about regional involvement? Turkey, Saudi Arabia

and Iran. Of course there is this important access in the region,

Iran, Hezbollah and Syria. -- axis. Powers in the Gulf see Iran as a

threatening power in the region. Iran has always been, God knows

since when. It is not because of the Islamic religion but even under

the Shah of Iran, Iran was treating the other Gulf states as

insignificant little states here and there. They deal would the

region with a lot of arrogance. There are two things are would like

to say. One, let's not always doubt, when the people are fighting and

trying to do their own staff -- staff, I take issue with people who

say, they are fighting but America has decided what will come after.

They know what will come after! It is true, for a country that has

suffered a lot, and we see this in many Third World countries, if you

don't study what happened in Iraq very carefully, you may go to

nothing. In Iraq, they said that the Ba'ath Party would have no jobs

afterwards. In Syria, you have to make sure that you kicked out the

forces who are killing everybody and stealing things, but maybe --

make sure you keep some of them as friends. Whenever the Olympic Games

are held there are always complicated arrangements. Border

guards are threatening a strike and the private security company G4S

has messed up so badly that thousands of soldiers will have to

help with security. Once the Games begin, we'll all have that be

forgotten? David. -- will all have that. Yes. Tomorrow, God willing,

deck -- Bradley Wiggins will win the Tour de France, which is a

perfect curtain-raiser for the Olympics. All this stuff about the

Olympics before the Olympics, everybody gets fed up with the

constant hype. When the thing actually begins and the athletes

start to the form and we get stories and pictures of

extraordinary people who have trained for so many years. -- start

to perform. In this country we will begin to get the first gold medals

etc, and all of this will be forgotten. Anybody who continues

You have obviously not travelled in a taxi it lately. London taxi

drivers are not happy. Yucel Athens at the peak of there performance

doing things the rest of us could only dream about, but I had a

cautionary tale from my own country, which hosted the Olympics. There

were a number of problems that happened during the games,

including problems with transport and security. People might be

caught up in the events and the gold medals, but if something goes

wrong with that the Underground in London or or with security, that

will throw and damper on the Games. But not if you are sitting at home

watching it on television. There is one thing I do not understand. I do

not see why people are moaning about it. You have something

celebratory, something really delightful coming to your town. Why

all the fuss? Because it is a great tradition, as you well know. The

New York Times did a piece this week, they went and talk to people

moaning about it and asked why you wear a moaning about it? Visit a

British decision to flinch? It is an Olympic sport. They had been

talking about the weather, saying there is no good weather. We will

have good weather, it will be 30 degrees and then they will warn

that it is too hot. I have just read the title, our

greatest team. One of the problems, and this is for me very

philosophical, going back to colonial and Imperial times. This

idea of Great Britain, all the countries out great. Our greatest

team. They always do that. They always do it before, not

necessarily afterwards. I do not think many Northern Ireland,

Scottish or Welsh people do this. It is the England team.

But we're not blowing it up, we er just quiet.

The incredible pleasure there is also in seeing the athletes from

Uganda and other countries here. The fact is, the last Olympics held

in this country were before I was born. It is an extraordinary,

exciting thing to think they're here. I might be able to go down

and see the marathon, which you would not meet tickets for. To

think that all that is happening here. We have seen on the

television from Beijing and Sydney and Athens and even from Atlanta,

which was a spectacularly poorly organised games. Everybody agrees.

But the good holds on the Times, we got feedback from readers. Readers

were contacting the paper and asking, why are you morning like

this? It is you journalists who are moaning about this.

I think one of the real worries I look at as a person coming from a

poor country. I do not Colet poor, we are rich in resources, but our

countries, it means the way the Olympics is going right now a

making all this billions of money that has to be spent for a country

to hold the Olympics. Secondly, the militarisation of the Olympics. The

fascination of all the things going on right now and he means that the

chance of a country like Uganda or South Africa or any of our

countries in the Third World or developing world buyer being

reduced. Until fairly recently, people would have described Brazil

as a developing country. They have the next Olympics. It is true that

this is a scaled-down Olympics from Beijing. That was much bigger.

Think about how the streets were cleaned of the undesirables in

Beijing before it started. You have not had that happen in Britain. It

is the sort of thing that irritates us. Going back to the great days

when it was a global event. You have to stage it, China has to

stage it and we cannot say it in Africa, because you're making it

too expensive. Let's move on. Nelson Mandela

celebrated his 94th birthday this week and remains something very

strange - a living hero. What is it about him that connects with people

around the world? Is it perhaps that he had power and voluntarily

gave it up, unlike, for example, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe or even

many democratically elected leaders who cling to power until forced

out? He is 94 and has had problems with his health, but it was good to

see him celebrate this week. He is a great man. Having said that,

some South Africans would say things that he did, like arranging

global strategies to bring in piece, you cannot take that away from him.

But many South Africans today feel he could have done much more on the

economic front, but he decided to do one little thing he could do. He

is a great man. That thing you talk about where he went from power when

people wanted him to stay, that is something. One of the biggest

problems for Africa is leaders who want to say for too long. When

somebody asked him about it recently, he said, I know the

problem is leaders who do not have a vision. Rubbish! Nelson Mandela

has given us a principle that if African leaders were to forelock,

would help. British readers, remember what happened to Margaret

Thatcher. She was kicked out from the party, from the Government,

from Downing Street. She cried when she left Downing Street. As in

David said, they all think there is no one better than them to run the

country. This even happens under democracy. In Africa, it is even

worse. Look at some Bambury. That great revolutionary man Mugabe, as

a symbol of change in the world, look at him. It is the greatest

disappointment of my life, to see people turning over and clinging to

power in this way. I cannot describe it. With Mandela, what is

remarkable is that here is a man who was imprisoned by a regime with

absolute power and then take to the heart that absolute power corrupts

absolutely and was willing to spare the country what happened to him.

You have the 22nd amendment, which means you can get rid of precedence

after eight years, the matter what happens. But some people stay in

the Senate for decades. We have dinosaurs, yes. There are other

things to deal with, but it is not quite the same. Was Mandela and

inspiration to you? One of my absolute earliest political

activities was anti- apartheid about South Africa. Mandela was in

prison and was this extraordinary figure. When he comes out, what

could have been a man who was very bitter, absolutely sod that the

problem was constructing a peaceful transition and that had to include

the people who had been enemies. This is the absolute necessary

prerequisite to getting a peaceful and democratic solution. He is the

complete and continuing inspiration of being able to do that process.

I mentioned the economic issue. One of the biggest problems South

Africa will face in the future is if they're just too comfortable to

say, we had all these white people killing us, we have make peace with

them and that is good for our society. But I think they will have

to Bedi strongly confront the issues of distribution of wealth,

which means some people will be unhappy, but the need to do it in a

civilised and humane way. Within the rule of law.

Many South African white people must be aware they have to share

what they have, because what I have been heeding from South Africa at

this moment, the majority of people keep getting cruder. I think the

Government that will succeed will be the Government that has the

courage to deal with it. The other thing that is

inspirational is that Mandela is someone who suffered for what he

did. There was also an armed struggle, but it was that suffering

which gave him a legitimacy which other people did not have.

great thing about this great man, if at given needed just steps back

and looks at what he or she has done, have I done enough, so I quit

Government? What Mandela did, he stepped back on the day he was

released, on the last day of the four years in which he was

president, and he said, I have done enough. What he did in prison, that

was the greatest achievement ever, not the four years in office.

That's it for Dateline London for this week. We'll be back next week