22/09/2012 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Is this the moment when

Mitt Romney's gaffes may have put winning the presidency out of reach

for the Republicans in 2012? And talking of gaffes, what do we make

of a senior British Conservative allegedly swearing at the police in

Downing Street? Plus, the protests by some Moslems enraged at how

Islam is portrayed in an American- made video. And, French cartoons.

My guests today are Ashis Ray of the Times of India, Stryker McGuire

of Bloomberg Markets, Annette Dittert of Germany's ARD and

Even Mitt Romney's friends admit he is unusually gaffe prone. But does

this spell doom for his presidential ambitions? It is quite

extraordinary. I haven't seen any candidate making such a series of

simple unforced errors. In the last election, McCain's campaign sort of

imploded at the last minute. It happened quickly. He said the

economy wasn't so bad... And he suspended his campaign, famously,

to then do nothing. But this is very curious because some of the

strongest criticism is coming from establishment Republicans in the

United States. People like Peggy Noonan who used to be a

speechwriter for Ronald Reagan. At one point, she said it looked like

incompetence and then she said, at no, what I meant was "a rolling

calamity". And she is careful with how words! And loyal! What do you

think it is? This is someone who has built his campaign on attacking

a President who has not had a fantastic time over the past four

years and saying, I am business competent. But these mistakes seem

to undermine the core of his story. Absolutely. Maybe a couple of

things are going on. One is there has been some improvement in the

economy so it takes some of the edge of that advantage. Another

thing is that maybe there was an expectation that he would win. It

is not turning out that way. If he wins, it will now be considered and

upset. A year ago, people would have said, President Obama is in

real trouble. That is part of it because for those of us outside the

United States, one thing that strikes me is that we do not cover

the fact it is a 50-50 split. One half of the nation would like to

vote for prison macro because they may not because they do not think

it is a valid choice. It has always been a few percentages here and

there which decide US elections. In this case, I would not say that

President Obama has a decisive lead. He is certainly ahead and, more

crucially, the seven odd swing states - the battleground states,

as they are called, he is significantly ahead in most of them.

But nationally, that contest is much closer. One Gallup poll said

they were neck and neck at 47%. But this 47% remark is in a series of

remarks of that nature uncaring remarks from Mitt Romney. He has

never really connected with the electorate right from the beginning.

It seems he has got a lack of passion or conviction in his

campaign which is simply not getting him to where he wants to be.

There is, however, one important factor which could be decisive in

favour of President Obama. Money is very important in US elections. In

this instance, it was believed about a year ago that Mitt Romney

wood out spend President Obama considerably, but this has happened

in the last two or three weeks. In other words, during the Democratic

convention and the weeks following that so the out spend has been two

to one. However, it seems that for the remaining six weeks, President

Obama has more than doubled the money to spend on at -- advertising

campaigns and that could be decisive. There is another layer to

the 40% gaffe in that he killed the American Dream it in a way. He said,

if you are one of the 47% for President Obama, you will never

make it but we always stay with the welfare state. Especially amongst

the Republican constituency, this was seen as a major gaffe because

it threatens the American may that is held in esteem in the republican

constituency. Do think that it will be possible for people to win an

election as a sitting candidate, as it were, even in very tough times?

We have not seen it in Europe with Nicolas Sarkozy. It seems President

Obama has a substantial lead. Perhaps the American economy isn't

bad enough to secure or Romany an easy victory and Angela Merkel is

certainly watching that closely. What do you make of the 50/50

question. It is difficult for any American president to govern that

country given the decisive nature of the electorate? It is divisive

with the country being pulled to the right. The only country I can

think with a comparable deep fissure where the sector liquor --

Seki -- secular Republicans line-up against their opponents, possibly

going back to the revolution and beyond. The irony in America is

that people say that business of America is Business and the idea

that a businessman can solve things is deeply rooted in their culture,

more so than ours. He's getting basic things wrong, saying he does

not represent all the people. My instinctive position is on the side

of the underdog. In many ways President Obama deserves to be

beaten and deserves a better candidate to beat him. He cannot

connect with the American people, Mitt Romney. He is a lousy

parliamentarian in so many ways. Part of the fraud presumably lies

in the Republican Party -- for or, -- part of a mistake, they

credential that appeal to a certain side of the party, to some people

are completely phoney, don't they? There are two things going wrong. -

- going on. Michael is right about the idea that competence and being

a business person. That was thrown into question with the credit

crisis and the bank collapses and everything else. The whole idea of

business competence is questioned these days. The other thing is,

when you talk about the so-called 47%, we know the number is just

rubbish. Most of those people are working and it is not that they are

not working or they are retired and they have paid for Medicare and

social security... But, if then what you are clinging to his having

been a competent person in the finance world, then you are hanging

on to some pretty thin thread. at his date was on foreign policy.

He made the statement about Palestine which was so disturbing.

He comes to Europe and says all the wrong things. With respect, the

fact he's in the Olympics would not be a success or the Palestinians

would not be irritated in -- in -- interested in peace, at that

doesn't count in a way in American politics? It reflects his lack of

knowledge of foreign affairs. The fact he is ingrained in internal

affairs and not very competently. think it does hurt him with a

moderate Establishment type Republicans. They really don't want

a candidate talking crazy things. If you were on a roll it wouldn't

matter. President Obama is said that a lot of his critics fall back

on guns and got. Romany has published his tax returns and it

reminds everyone how Ritchie is. Especially the disaster in London

was seen in America. Friends called me and said, what happened over

there? He couldn't have played more into the image of a callow American.

Let us move on. The Conservative Party's chief whip, Andrew Mitchell,

allegedly swore at police in Downing Street this week and -

again allegedly - called them "plebs." He denied using such words

- but has apologised. So - is this just one irritated man being silly

- or does it get to the heart of the weakness of a government which

some critics see as too posh, too rich and too out of touch? You have

occasionally cycled into Downing Street and I take it you have lots

one at any policeman? The policeman there and a round that

neighbourhood, There are a lot of them and many have machine guns I

am sorry to say because of the Al- Qaeda thing. But they are pretty

polite to us and we are polite to them. In any case, it doesn't

matter way you are, you are not read to people in uniform even

though they may say you cannot do that. You cannot putt your bicycle

outside the Downing Street it's because security will take it away

and blow it up. You have to go inside and that is what I and

others like me to do. Perhaps you are a pleb?! Perhaps. But when he

behaves like that you think, where did you come from? Because real

toffs and I do not want to be sentimental about the aristocracy,

but there are a lot of Conservatives who would be very

embarrassed by that. It is bad form. After Manchester... Back there at

two police officers who were killed? Yes, Cameron couldn't tried

to defend his comments. I won't be surprised if it just went away.

disagree. He has a lot of enemies and many in his own party. The

Labour Party is exploiting it. The police trade union, the Police

Federation, is involved in an industrial dispute with the

government. We have already forgotten that -- their performance

at Hillsborough there week ago. wonder whether as was somebody said

that all British stories are about class and this is. Whether he used

the word "pleb" or not, it is seen as really offensive. Police --

especially coming from this kind of government which is seen as a posh

boys club. It is the last thing they need now, having somebody who

so easily plays into the hands of the opposition. Labour doesn't have

to do much at the moment. It is also true that no government

actually wants to pick a fight with police officers doing their duty in

any kind of way. It comes -- becomes problematic and yet they do

have a vision of the police force which means that pensions and other

things will be cut. Yes, as you say, I think may be a Labour doesn't

have to do anything, but it is hard that, during this period of quite

serious problems for the Tories, Ed Miliband hasn't suddenly risen as a

great figure. His party has gone up in the polls. Ed Miliband in person

is way beyond -- beyond -- Bilic David Cameron. Why do thing that

is? I don't know. Part of it is that there has always been some

confusion about how he came into that position. Is he returning to

old Labour? Is he a moderniser or a traditionalist? Then he has his

brother, rightly or wrongly, as a So people in Britain do not know

who he is, still? Yes, I guess what Michael would say is that there is

not an election for another several years, we do not necessarily know

the leader of the opposition party that well at this point for but

might call would also say that what they do know, they are not

impressed with. Unlike me at Romney he has a couple of years to change

Stitching up his brother was a bad start. Labour's popularity is by

default rather than anything else. It is the unpopularity of the

government that gives them impressive numbers in the polls.

There is one thing that is a little unclear to me. If what Mitchell has

said is correct, if he had been allowed through those gates so many

times, why was he stop this time? Possibly, and this could be a

logical explanation, the officer concerned was new to the job, did

not recognise him, and said you cannot go through the main gates.

That said, Mitchell allegedly used terms which are not mention of will

on this programme. In addition to calling the police men plebs, or

whatever. I think that is unacceptable in this country. It

does happened in the developing world, and I say this because it

happens in a country like my country, India, where politicians

tend to throw their weight around. Policemen are often at the

receiving end. And it does not generally happen in Britain.

Therefore the outrage is not surprising. And the ambivalence of

Mr Boris Johnson... In what sense? He has declared open war to David

Cameron, and this is another opportunity. It has been an

interesting man for apologies, we have had the Prime Minister

apologising for Hillsborough, and for other things. Now we have

Andrew Mitchell apologising, and the Deputy Prime Minister

apologising. It has been an interesting week. The pink Nick

Clegg and the Lib Dems fall into a trap that minority parties and

coalitions in Germany and Ireland usually fall into, which is they

are the ones who get the rough end of the stick, but it happens?

but it is not a trap, that is the nature of the coalition. Maybe Nick

Clegg should look at his partners in Germany, the Liberal Democrats

there who have had the same kind of story for a long time, that you

just have to show where is your footprint. Nick Clegg has not done

that so far. The apology is hopeless because it makes him

appear weak. The firemen the Government and part of the

government, I do things writer I do them wrong, if I do them wrong I

correct them. But I do not apologise. Do you mean that Nick

Clegg should say that way have achieved this, this, and this, and

it would be different if the Tories Some people will accept this. He

has learned on the job. He ought to know about all the other countries,

his mother is Dutch. That is not completely lost on him. And I

suspect we all agree that the Government will continue as a

coalition until the bitter end or whatever. Till near the bitter end.

When aid how do you think this will work? -- how do you think this will

work? There on the same page on many things. But the further down

you going the parties, the more this disappears. #ColourGreen it as

another of the splits between people who used to be Liberals.

There are people there are economically much more free market

than others, and it is always there in the party, and that is the case.

There are also certain rows about what to do about the environment

and weld tax, which plays to their own supporters. The Tories thought

they would have a much better chance at the next election because

there would be boundary changes where the structure of the country

would favour them. But it does not look like that is going to happen.

I think they thought this is like a one-term deal, we will be in

coalition, these guys will in themselves and the Lib Dems will

destroy themselves, cannibalise themselves during a coalition, and

in the next election in 2015, we will win a majority. I suspect that

in 2.5 years, the economy will be better than it is today, which will

favour the Conservative Party a little bit, not enough to make a

decisive. The tricky bit will be, how they separate the two parties -

- how they separate us two parties. Having been together for five years,

how do you justify this? They have to find a spurious reason to

justify find -- fighting the election separately. I understand a

tradition of the Lib Dems and the Conservatives and therefore they

have to fight elections separately, but they have lived together for

five years. I wanted to talk about the demonstrations in Pakistan and

elsewhere. This is about to rue the offence of video about Islam. What

do you make about the significance of that? First of all it is a very

amateur video, but it is so provocative. What is true is that

in the developing world in general, people are more sensitive about

religion than they are in European societies. This is particularly

true of Islam. Muslims are very sensitive about their religion and

the Prophet Mohammed. In that situation, something like this on

YouTube in this day and age, when the Internet dominates so many

things, it is unsurprising the reaction we have seen a purring. --

Bob Carr ING. Yesterday Pakistani television stations were

frantically gearing broadcasts of Barack Obama explaining that the US

administration has nothing to do with this and that we condemn it

and so on. This was to make peace in the region because the attack is

clearly against diplomatic missions of the United States. Another

interesting thing is that the people behind us, they have almost

no support and the United States. They are a very tiny group of

people. -- in the United States. This is about a video but it is

always -- also not about a video. It is so much deeper than what we

have seen over the past 10 or 20 years, this clash of

fundamentalists. Whether it is Muslim or Christian fundamentalism

and the United States, there are big blocks that are not coming

together well at all. I think there is a huge grievance, especially in

the Muslim world about Iraq and Palestine and Afghanistan, and

other issues that it does not take much more than one stupid video to

sort of inflame the situation. There are 1.2 billion Muslims in

these countries, but less than 1% on the streets. I get slightly

uneasy when I hear people say that you have laws, and things you

cannot say. Europe is the odd one out, you're still not allowed to

deny the Holocaust, you have stronger traditions of free-speech

in this country, and I am a free speech man but I am aware that

there are different menus and histories. Holocaust denial as a

law is hard to get round. If you are a Muslim and you're angry, you

The Supreme Court has decided that free-speech is not necessarily