07/12/2013 Dateline London

I am back with a full bulletin at the top of the hour. Now it is

Dateline London live with Carol Walker.

Hello. Welcome to Dateline London. South Africa prepares for a week of

events to commemorate the life of Nelson Mandela. We will look at his

legacy and the future of the country.

Also, how strong is the British economy? Is the Chancellor right to

claim his plan is working? My guests today are Polly Toynbee of the

Guardian, Stephanie Baker from Bloomberg, temp wat from S W radio

Africa and Heather Walker from The South African.Dot com. Thank you for

joining us. Heather, we have heard is a lot about Nelson Mandela's

extraordinary life and achievements. What state does he

leave South Africa in now? People are asking what his legacy is. On

one hand his legacy is the country itself. It is the people and the

institutions he built and the reconciliation that he developed in

South Africans. We are changed country. We are different place. You

can see it in the way people relate to each other. But on the other hand

there is a Santa legacy where people are questioning whether country is

going. `` there is a sadder lectures the `` a sadder legacy. The current

leaders living up to the current values and rights for all. The

legacy of Nelson Mandela might be in a fragile state, as some people

would argue. Tererai Karimakawenda, do you think that is right? Yes.

would argue. Tererai Karimakawenda, do you think that is right? Yes If

you look at the promise when he came out of prison, one thing that was

promised was basic water and electricity and there are still

millions of people in South Africa who do not have those basics.

Mandela has been let down by the people who followed him. He had the

right idea and he stepped down at the right time and did the right

thing, because many African leaders do not want to step down. You

literally have to force them from power. But he did the right thing

but the people after him did not follow those ideas and they could

have done a lot more to change the lives of South Africans. We know

unemployment is around 25%. There was a big gulf between the incomes

of the black and white communities. Yes, income and equality in South

Africa has widened since apartheid. That will be a real battle ground

going forwards. People struggle for the heart of the ANC and how it

develops the economy going forwards. In the past year and a half there

has been a series of wildcat strikes across mines in South Africa, where

unions are demanding a doubling of wages. It has been met by a deadly

response by the police who have not handled it well at all. Now they

have unions threatening to leave the ANC because they disagree with

Government policy. There is a lot of questions over how South Africa goes

forwards and moves that Mandela s legacy, remembering what he wanted

to do which was equality and opportunity for everyone and they

have fallen short of that with the economic legacy unravelling a bit.

There has been a huge amount spoken about how much he did achieve. In

the immediate aftermath of his death, do you think perhaps some

problems have been overlooked? I think so. It is not really a day or

a week for looking at his weaknesses or the things he could not achieve.

After all, you think of the heavy lifting required, and how amazing

what he did achieve and that remains the most remarkable thing about him

despite everything you have said. I have been looking at the

extraordinary British reaction. The utter hypocrisy of the British and

right ring and the British press. Pages and pages of the Daily

Telegraph, the Daily Mail, the papers who supported apartheid at

the time. I was amongst the demonstrators outside South Africa

House and part of the apartheid movement. I worked for Amnesty

International in the Ian Smith years. The rewriting of history,

years. The rewriting of history particularly the British

Conservatives' role, they supported apartheid. And now David Cameron is

saying how wonderful he was. David Cameron himself visited South Africa

with his expenses paid in 1989, expenses paid by a lobbying group,

and we get these crocodile tears. It sticks in my throat. What has been

interesting for me is listening to the stories. The stories that are

coming out which ordinary people are telling about those demonstrations.

The things people dead. Ordinary white people who supported the

movement and wanted him to be freed from jail. Really lovely stories

about how I brought my daughter and we stayed there all night and the

money that was raised by youth clubs. That is when you really see

the legacy that Nelson Mandela was leaving. When you look at the

relationships which have developed over the years I was listening to a

woman who age was married to a Jamaican and this is how she got to

know about Nelson Mandela, because as a white person she had never had

black friends before that. She married this Jamaican and he bought

this `` he brought this other aspect to her life. That kind of legacy of

bringing Brack and white together is his legacy. It was a small group in

Britain with the police treating the demonstrators as if... The people

pull were split on these demonstrations. And a great exodus

of white Brits to South Africa for a better life as you can get

servants. The cultural rewriting that is going on now is dangerous.

And South Africa does have the advantage now that it has a lot of

foreign investment but we have these big elections coming up. Some

criticism of the current ANC leadership. We know the ANC is

losing support. We do not know how it will pan out by the time the

election comes. We celebrate 20 years next year of democracy which

is hard to believe. That will be a watershed moment in our country The

watershed moment in our country. The elections come at a time when there

are these extreme economic problems with the mines and the unions. There

is a rift between the unions and the ANC. That has traditionally been one

of the main strongholds of the ANC. So how they might break away could

influence the election quite strongly. And also all the new

parties coming forward. A lot of people `` we have a lot of

politicians coming through at the moment, all sorts of new pieces

coming up with new parties coming up. Although they are not going to

win a huge amount of the votes the first time around, we know the ANC

will be looking at those parties and the opposition party and the

Democratic Alliance which is growing in popularity in many communities.

And South Africa is now seen as an important player, one of the bricks

of emerging economies in the world. That economic future is hugely

important for the country, isn't it? Yes, it is but it is not China or

India. It has not experienced the rapid economic growth we have seen

in some of the other brick countries. That is partly because of

the economic legacy from Nelson Mandela, he played a huge role in

stabilising the economy. People forget how bad South Africa was at

the time he took over as president. They had a massive budget deficit.

Capital was fleeing the country He played a strong stabilising force

and set up the conditions for economic growth for 15 years until

2008 when the financial crisis hit. Now it ought to be growing faster

and I think the challenge is how to strike the balance between working

conditions and pay. That will be the real focus going forwards to attract

international investment at the same time. How to strike that talents in

a politically tricky time period will be interesting to watch.

Tererai, South Africa is an important player in that region.

important player in that region Yes, the most important player right

now. South Africa was appointed as the facilitator in terms of the

negotiations in Zimbabwe when we had elections and problems there. We had

the facilitator negotiating between Robert Mugabe and Zanu`PF. They had

huge respect for Nelson Mandela and many wished he had said something

about the situation in Zimbabwe particularly when we had violent

elections and people were brutalised and we have a president who has been

a powerful 30 years to leave. Zimbabweans have so much respect for

Nelson Mandela and they wanted some verbal criticism pointing to the fax

next door. That was a glaring absence or silence. He was very well

respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie, absence or silence. He was very well

respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie as respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie as

we look at the future of South Africa in that region, do you think

the markets will look positively on that future without Nelson Mandela

there? He was still there as this presents for the nation. That will

depend on the outcome of the elections and what happens to the

ANC. If it turns into a messy political situation and we see the

unions breaking off from the ANC, that will add instability. They

really need to focus on an agreement between wages to placate the unions

and stabilise the mining industry which is a huge part of the economy

and South Africa. They need a long`term solution. Any final

thoughts on the future of South Africa? South Africa has always been

the great emblem of hope for the rest of Africa. If it cannot resolve

its inequality problem, it looks grim. The gap in wages is so

enormous between top and bottom There has to be someone a showing

that you can have a fairer distribution of wealth. That is the

way forward for Africa. Tererai, way forward for Africa. Tererai

would you agree with that? Absolutely. Also, it is an important

time to look back at what this meant and what apartheid was and what it

meant to people. The separation of people. You had classes of people

where the Asians and Africans were here and the whites were there. To

revisit that if you have children, to really look at what Mandela's

plight was all about. That struggle has produced many important people.

Many were fighting for the same thing, which is equality and justice

and a good life for all people. It is a good time to revisit that. Yes,

a whole new focus on that after his death. Now we must move on. In

Britain this week the Chancellor George Osborne gave his Autumn

Statement. He trumpeted the fastest growth in the developing world ``

wrote developed world. But Ed Balls accused him of taking complacency

and a crisis leaving families worse off. Who is right? Stephanie Baker,

do you think the Chancellor was right to make those confident

claims? It is remarkable how quickly the situation has changed in six

months. Back in March had the IMF criticising George Osborne for not

doing enough to kick`start the UK economy. Had Britain being

downgraded `` you had the credit rating of Britain being downgraded.

The forecast has not been good. The numbers do not live. There is a

recovery going on. Construction and services have only bounded. I think

the issue is that it is not a balanced recovery. It is being

driven by consumer demand and credit as opposed to investment or

exports. That is probably because Europe is still in the doldrums and

that is the largest trading partner. I thought that people

viewed this as a political statement by George Osborne. He is staking his

economics at the centre of the next election. That will get tricky going

forward. He was claiming that his austerity plan worked and that had

resulted in economic growth. A lot of economists look at that and think

that might be a stretch. The Bank of England has kept interest rates at

historic lows for five years and has embarked on impressive easing which

is taking hold and resulting in some of the economic growth. And the real

issue is how to unravel this without killing the economy. The Bank of

England is now linking and saying it will not raise interest rates until

unemployment falls below 7%. The forecasts released recently show

that will happen at the end of 014 or early 2015, which means there

will be a hike in interest rates for the first time in six years right

before a general election. That will be interesting. If Labour were to

win the next election, they will face the rising of interest rates.

This is a very political business. The idea that interest rates are

totally independent from anything to do with government, I would doubt

it. George Osborne, part of his job was to make sure he maintains

international confidence. Do you think he has succeeded? I think he

has two a certain extent. Britain is well regarded internationally in

many spheres. I do not think, compared to South Africa certainly,

Britain certainly has much higher depth than South Africa, which is

hard to believe. Financially he has served it well. They are playing

around with figures and there is never an agreement between economic

experts as to what is true and what is not. They IMF to say one thing

and Osborne says another. He has added another year to his austerity

plan. That shows literally he was way off and he is trying to find $25

billion in cuts ` welfare cuts. That is a lot of money. They have already

cut. A lot of people are suffering. If you listen to people on the buses

and trains, they are still feeling this austerity quite seriously. To

say there is more coming, I cannot imagine how many people will make

it. They are still not back where they hoped things would be when this

government came into power. They are miles. He said they would be back in

balance by 2015. Not a chance now. He has pushed forward his target.

What is interesting about this is you have a cautious, but quite

ebullient at statement from the Chancellor. The next day, you read

the front page of the Financial Times. OBE are, the office will

budget responsibility, which Osborne himself put into place, and

independent body. The Instiitute for Fiscal Studies, the arbiter of all

of these things and totally independent, pitfalls of cold water

on it really. It says it is rising faster than other people because it

went further and deeper and longer. `` it is rising faster than they

thought. There is a fact that construction is moving fast but it

is minimal. There are a lot of questions. It is better to be where

we are then where we were six months ago. You look at the cuts. The

sturdy has hardly begun. After the next election, bigger cuts than we

have ever had. All of them saying, you cannot do this. The bins will

not be collected at the rate he has pencilled in. Did talk of tax rises

when people are complaining that train fares have gone up and fuel

has gone up... It will probably be necessary. You either run a huge

deficit where if interest rates go up, it will be very expensive, or

you have these kind of cuts which are politically impossible. In the

end you had to pay for it. They are talking about cutting government

departments even further. I'm an economic expert. I see how it

affects people around me. The library closed in the area where I

lived. The council took the books and the furniture and put them into

storage. That is a contract they are paying monthly. The local residents

took over the library. They have filled it up with books. The council

has given back that furniture they took out. It has been a good speller

for community action. They are not going to cap government spending any

more than they have. The austerities starting to be felt by people. The

Conservatives are saying they want to get the size of government down

permanently and for ever to way below what we have been

traditionally used to. Despite the fact a lot of local services have

been cut and they are always talking endlessly about the cost of living

and how people have been squeezed because their wages are not going up

as quickly as prices are rising By as quickly as prices are rising. By

and large, from all the polls, people seem to want to stick with

the recipe of George Osborne. Labour is leading in the polls. The ratings

of George Osborne, as steward of the economy, have risen recently. That

is not surprising given the economic growth we have seen. I agree, a lot

of the cuts back ended for after the election. It will be unclear, even

if the Conservatives win, will they be able to carry that off?

Forecasting that far into the future is incredibly difficult. The fact of

the matter is, even with these cuts, net public debt will peak at ?1 5

net public debt will peak at ?1.5 trillion. That is astonishing. Just

the servicing of that debt is enormous. Something has two gives

somewhere. I do not think they want to do too much before the next

election. 2016 will be a very tricky year. Britain is doing better than

some of the other Eurozone countries. We are not alone and

still struggling to emerge from this global, financial crisis. Certainly

not. Other places have survived better. Australia is doing well

Britain is still, in Europe, one of the stronger countries. I suppose we

can thank those who are responsible for our financial management in some

ways. Given what you were talking about with the Billy Crespi which

George Osborne set out, are you surprised there has not been more of

a backlash against it? `` with the recipe which George Osborne set out.

People think that everything is going up but what has not gone up is

salaries. I am surprised there has not been a backlash. I am surprised

there are not more demonstrations and public outcry is. Perhaps you

are surprised that Ed Balls does not seem to be winning over the public

as much as you would like. You seemed to struggle on Thursday. He

had a bad performance. It was bad both in content and delivery. The

delivery, I think, we feel our parliament in a very peculiar way.

You do not see, or here, the full force of the bark of sound forth if

you stand where he is standing, you cannot hear yourself speak. His side

were not very happy. The more serious critique is that he has not

decided how to grasp the enormity of what is planned for after the

election. What will Labour say? They have said they will stick to the

envelope. They have two say I think they will have to be honest. Either

we followed through these cuts, and this is what they will mean for

health, schools, roads, parks, everything. Libraries no more.

Swimming pools though more. All we are going to have to pay for it.

Taxes will have two rides. Whether you can win an election by being

that honest, I do not know. `` taxes will have to rise. Honesty is the

only hope. Just briefly, that does seem to be wed David Cameron and

George Osborne are at the moment. They seem to be basing their whole

approach and saying stick with us because we are on the right course.

The trust and managing the economy is higher. Ed Balls has not

articulated a coherent response. The articulated a coherent response. The

Coalition Government has really succeeded in putting Labour on the

backs that. They are trying to pass this charter with Parliamentary

approval and getting everyone to commit to capping the net amount of

public debt. How will Labour respond to that? They must not put

themselves in a chicken situation after the next election should they

win. Until they can say their plan is better, it will be difficult.

win. Until they can say their plan is better, it will be difficult. We

will continue right up until the next general election. We have to

leave it here. That is it the be can also comment on the programme on

twitter. `` that is it. You can also comment on the programme on Twitter.

Goodbye. Halloo. Much, and quieter conditions

as we head through the cause of the weekend. It will be often quite

cloudy for much of the