08/02/2014 Dateline London


08/02/2014

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Have a full bulletin at the top of the hour. Now, it is dateline

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London. Hello and welcome to Dateline

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London. The Winter Olympics opened in Sochi. What does this great show

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tell us about Russia now? Negotiating with the Taliban and

:00:37.:00:39.

freak weather in Britain, Australia and United States and elsewhere,

:00:40.:00:49.

what does that tell us about climate change? My guests today are Dmitri

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Shishkin of BBC Global News, Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg

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Markets, Ashis Ray of Ray Media and Janet Daley of the Sunday Telegraph.

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The Olympic Games in Beijing told us a lot about how modern China sees

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itself on the same could be said about the Olympics in Sochi. It has

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been dogged by rows about what many see as an increasingly authoritarian

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Russian state. People all over Russia looking upon the opening with

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pride or what? Huge pride. It was interesting that irrespective of

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which political spectrum you belong to in Russia, if you looked at the

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Twitter feed and Facebook feeds yesterday, they were all very

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complimentary about the kind of show that has been put on. Before that,

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to be honest, it was very radicalised in terms of your

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attitude to Sochi. If you were against Vladimir Putin, then you

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would see it as his pet project, mired in corruption. You would be

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talking about gay rights, Pussy Riot, political prisoners and that

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side of the spectrum. Domestically it would have been very different.

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The Games were shown almost as the pinnacle, although that is likely to

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be the 2018 World Cup, which will be staged in Russia in four years time.

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Still very much the world coming to Russia. The world seeing what modern

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Russia is like. What China has shown in 2008 and what Britain has shown

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in 2012, a similar message. The point I want to make is that the

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show was not about propaganda or Russia. It was about how Russia

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contributed to the world. Does they do care about the money? -- does

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nobody care? Of course they do, but possibly not to the same extent as

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is being portrayed here. People are fixated on the number of $51

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billion. Russians have come to acknowledge the fact that corruption

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is something that has been with them for at least 400 years. So nothing

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new! Apart from that, what they would say, we are seeing the Sochi

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games as a way of transforming the whole of southern Russia. That would

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be the main message. We are building new roads and infrastructure,

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transforming the region. Although people do steal. I am shocked by

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that and obviously it never happened anywhere else! Lots of parallels

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there. People in London were whingeing about the games at London

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until they started. It was a lot of money and people now tends not to

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think about that. There is a blow that these things have. Yes, there

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are parallels. If you want to pitch for the Games, you have to picture

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regeneration project. There was nothing there before, which is part

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of the reason why it is so expensive, in addition to corruption

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and waste. They have built a Mountain ski resort from nothing.

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They have built a whole area on the coast where there was nothing

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before, just swampland. The day of reckoning will come when the Games

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are over and people will ask if it is the regeneration plan and if it

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will work. Was that $50 billion well spent? Given that it is happening

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against the background of the Russian economy slowing... When

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Vladimir Putin pitched to win the Games, in 2007, economic growth was

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strong and Russia was an ascendant power. Now oil prices are above $100

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on the Russian economy is stagnating. I think a lot of people

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do blame corruption for that as well as low productivity. I think

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Vladimir Putin may be facing a lot of questions when the Games Rover.

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Does it make us question the dynamic with in the country as well? In

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China, there was a proud country reasserting itself, but also it

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forced it to acknowledge the way it is seen around the world is

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important. That could be true of Russia. Yes, I think it is

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absolutely true to say that it is a resurgent Russia. After the collapse

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of the Soviet Union, there was a psychological collapse. To rebuild

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the regime and create a capitalist system is something that is taking

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time. The work is still in progress. The fact is that whether it is the

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energy resources of Russia or their manufacturing which is showing up

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these days, in the hardware of military design or any other field,

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I think Russia is certainly on the resurgent. What do you make of that?

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They used to say that the economy does not work and they make very

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little that people want to buy apart from oil and gas. It still does not

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work without the oil. That is all there is to the Russian economy. But

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this is not about Russia. It is about Vladimir Putin and this has

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been his year, thanks to the withdrawal of United States and the

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loss of any intervention in Syria. He became the Peacemaker, in

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inverted commas, in Syria and Iran, and it is very important for him in

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the most unlikely circumstances. The most unlikely person as well. The

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former KGB thug becomes Peacemaker for the world. It is very important

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for him that the prestige of these games should be sustained beyond

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when they finish. There was a very funny incident when the display of

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the five Olympic circles was supposed to turn into the Olympic

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circles at one of them did not work but the Russian television audiences

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did not know that because as soon as it became apparent that it did not

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work, they substituted pre-recorded material. That is old Russia and

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Stalinism. And it does not make any sense because in the age of social

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media, people know. I want to make a couple of points. Your point about

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the lack of self-confidence among Russians is very true. I think

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Russia is a nation domestically, irrespective of how it might project

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itself internationally, domestically it is a work in progress in terms of

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the national ideal. They always say exports is the national ideal, then

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boil, then something else. It is very powerful and people were

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commenting that when the little girl was getting rid of the red balloon

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that was flying away, that red balloon was old Russia and she was

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the new Russia. That was very symbolic. I would agree with what

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you are saying. It is absolutely true that the Russia within is less

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confident than the Russia with its foreign policy. There is no doubt

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that Russia has played a constructive role, whether in Syria

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or Iran, and that cannot be underestimated. When it comes to the

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various issues raised in connection with Sochi, starting with terrorist

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threats and hotel conditions not being up to the mark, starting with

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anti-gay legislation, and of course construction costs and corruption, I

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would say that certainly when it comes to the terrorist threat and

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when it comes to the hotel conditions not being up to the

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mark, these are matters of international concern. I am not

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really sure whether corruption or the cost of construction is an

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international matter. It is more a domestic Russian issue. So is, I

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guess, the anti-gay aspect. Although I can understand that the gay

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movement internationally is concerned. Whether it is a

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Government to Government matter, I am not really sure. I think some of

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the media coverage in the West has been a bit mean-spirited. It was

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entertaining at first and then I read the Daily Mail's description of

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the Opening Ceremony and I thought, you know what? Enough is enough. I

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totally agree with you. The important thing here is that if you

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went to cheering, if you went to Athens, probably the organising

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committee did not think about what important thing. -- if you went to

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Turin. That is to make sure that the journalists are happy when they

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arrive! It is important that if you have yellow water coming out of your

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apartment, of course that is important. But if you can take care

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of sports people, please take care of international journalists.

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They're working hard to look like a 21st century country keeping up with

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25th entry standards, so this is embarrassing. I think the gay rights

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issue is different. It raises the issue of human rights and civil

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liberty is, and whether or not it is an autocratic country, a modern

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democratic country. I think that will be the most serious question

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inside and outside. Can I switch slightly because this week David

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Cameron chose to refer to Olympics as something to do with United

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Kingdom's national image. At the Olympic Park in London, not

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Scotland, which was picked up by the SNP, he said that we are better

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together and he told people to phone a friend and tell them to vote no.

:10:30.:10:37.

The Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that David Cameron

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talking like this is the embodiment of every reason why you should vote

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yes. That is probably why he is not going to Scotland. This is

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tantamount to saying that this is class war. The old Etonian

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upper-class image is a death in Scotland. That adds a political

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dimension that for the most part the SNP is not really admitting, that

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this is as much about straightforward politics, class

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politics, as it is about Scottish independence, and that is an

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imported admission. If I may play devils advocate? When it comes to

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the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow this year, Alec Salmond will say

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exactly the same. I agree that it will probably be a no vote. Pakistan

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opened talks with the Taliban this week. How far is it possible to

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reach some kind of an agreement with the state with a troubled democratic

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history and an organisation that wishes to govern according to

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extreme interpretations of the Koran? Presumably it is better than

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shooting each other but do you think it places much faith in these

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negotiations? I would like to compliment the Prime Minister for

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the initiative. It was an election promise and he has pursued it.

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Despite the fact the army has been against any soft approach to the

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Taliban. He had gone ahead with the talks. The important question, as

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you have raised, is whether the talks have any prospects. First of

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all, we are at the stage where both sides are negotiating about talks,

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rather than engaging in talks. We are at the precondition stage, where

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five conditions have been put by the Pakistan Government to the Taliban.

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One of them is that there should be a complete cessation of hostilities.

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Then on the other side, from the Taliban side, there are two demands.

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This is a difficult one, they want an imposition of Sharia law as

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opposed to British law in Pakistan. The second one is the withdrawal of

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all American troops from the region. In Afghanistan? Exactly. Obviously

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Pakistan has no jurisdiction over the movement of American troops in

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Afghanistan. It is a sovereign country, separate country, and even

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within Pakistan, which is a continental nation as opposed to

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being an Arabic country, for it to switch dramatically from British

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jurisprudence to Sharia law is not going to be easy. I doubt very much

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whether it will happen. Just on that point, especially since in Pakistan

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there has been a rather difficult history of army takeovers and so on,

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it has quite often been the judiciary and the lawyers who have

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been the last bastions of democratic civil society. Am I right?

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Absolutely right. There has also been annexes between the army and

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the intelligence wing and the extreme right-wing forces. -- a

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nexus. This is very difficult for the Pakistani Government. Should we

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congratulate them. In it? It was inevitable I think, because they

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were up against a wall. It was the irresistible force. The value

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systems are completely incompatible, totally incompatible.

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The idea that something productive could come out of this, you can't

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pretend that this is like the British Government is dealing with

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Sinn Fein, former terrorists who have decided to go legal. Their

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whole value systems and their political assumptions are completely

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incompatible. What can come out of this, the most you can hope is to

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avert outright civil war. I was reading about this and it struck me

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that the umbrella group that represents the Taliban surely

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represents many diverse groups within it, so it would be very hard

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to control any agreement that they come up with. Another thing is what

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are you going to do with presumably foreign fighters? I remember when

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Boris Yeltsin was trying to negotiate with Chechen leaders in

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the mid 90s, which Vladimir Putin completely opposes and he said we

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never negotiated with the Chechens. He pacified Chechnya in the way he

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wanted it done. Some people were always referring to Boris Yeltsin as

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a traitor as soon as he started talking to people on that side of

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the border, although church any was part of the country. -- Chechnya was

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part of the country. They were not imposing Sharia law. It was just

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about imposing the end of Ireland in the first place. -- the end of

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violence. The former governor has suggested that tried is more

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important than some of the constructor come from outside of the

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country, and perhaps the government recognises effectively what you are

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saying, you can negotiate with most people involved in conflict, not all

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of them, but most of them. But I think there is the question of, if

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they can get a video, can it be implemented if there are Al-Qaeda

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affiliates in some of those regions? I think the Pakistani ambassador to

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the US summed it up pretty well when he said recently that you can't

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negotiate with people who wants to bring the country back to the eighth

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century. The Gulf is so huge between their positions, and I was reading

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some speculation that this is... There had been pressure or

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expectation that the military would respond against terrorist attacks

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recently, but this may be a tactic by Sherif, going, try negotiations.

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They are likely to fail, but this would give a clean slate for a

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military response. Exactly, to justify that. I have done it, I have

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tried, and now the Army can take over, and that is not unlikely,

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because there is a lot of scepticism in Pakistan about what Sharif is

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doing at the moment. The Army has been briefing media about this being

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a weakness on the part of the Pakistani government. Let's move on

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to what is clearly the biggest story of the week, the British government

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having been forced to earmark a lot more money for flood defences after

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another week of stormy weather. All around the world, we are

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experiencing what some US commentators called global we

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thing, very strange weather patterns. Will all this and public

:17:36.:17:39.

concern forced government to think differently? Is it time for the

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debate with climate change sceptics to be drawn to an end? There are two

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different parts of that, but on government thinking differently,

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this government has clearly begun to start differently. Yes, but not

:17:51.:17:55.

about climate change, about dredging rivers. They have excepted climate

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change, broadly, haven't they? Yes. But with respect, this isn't a

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climate change story, this is a government agency incompetence

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story, and to the extent that environmental issues have come into

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it, if they actually seem to have been detrimental. A great deal of

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money and energy has been spent on protecting the natural habitat of

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the wildlife of that area. In fact, there is evidence that the brothers

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have deliberately not been dredged in order to save the habitat of

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wildlife in the area. -- the rivers. And the river dredging, which had

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gone on for 200 years and had prevented floods, even, perhaps, in

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very extreme weather in the past, have prevented this kind of

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catastrophic flooding, has not been done since 1990. So I think the

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viral mental issues cuts both ways. One of the climate change advisors

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for this government said, not just for the narrow issue, for everyone

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power and you spend on protecting properties in places like Somerset,

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you save ?8 and clean up, so it is a good thing to invest in. He was very

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clear that there has been a shift in weather patterns causing a great

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deal more damage, and governments must get together. Yes, but even if

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they do get together on the broad point, you're talking about possible

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solutions and 50 or 60 years. The extent to which Britain unilaterally

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could affect the overall climate conditions of the world, within

:19:28.:19:33.

Britain, there are specific, concrete practical policies which

:19:34.:19:36.

have not been followed, which could have been followed, and I'm afraid

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this has been a shameful incident within government agencies and

:19:41.:19:42.

government responsibility to the people of this region. That is

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certainly what people in Somerset have been saying. Yes, I think

:19:47.:19:54.

pretty much worldwide, there is increasing evidence that climate

:19:55.:19:57.

change is beginning to affect farming, and therefore, if this

:19:58.:20:00.

continues the decades, there could be a food crisis. A time has come

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where people need to arrest what is going on. That being the case, I

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think we are seeing more and more proactive measures. In Britain,

:20:12.:20:17.

geographically a small country, where extreme weather conditions

:20:18.:20:21.

prevail, vast areas of the country are affected, and therefore, I

:20:22.:20:29.

noticed an opinion shift, not only among the conservatives, which is

:20:30.:20:32.

important, because the Conservatives have been slightly divided on this,

:20:33.:20:37.

but also, most importantly, among the people. And if the West Country,

:20:38.:20:44.

which is relatively conservative or liberal country, as opposed to being

:20:45.:20:48.

Labour territory, is going to be swayed by bizarre given, then think

:20:49.:20:52.

Britain is sadly moving in the direction of proactive measures as

:20:53.:20:59.

far as climate change is concerned. I am more interested in the

:21:00.:21:03.

government response. Climate change is here, it is a matter of how we

:21:04.:21:06.

respond. It seems like their response has been too but they

:21:07.:21:10.

plaster on a gaping wound. I was really surprised at the environment

:21:11.:21:14.

Minister's response on the ground. The buyer and agency had. He seems

:21:15.:21:19.

to display a remarkable lack of sympathy for local resident. It took

:21:20.:21:26.

him a while to get down there as well. Yes, his first visit? It is

:21:27.:21:31.

shocking it took him that long. He doesn't want to give an apology, but

:21:32.:21:36.

the lack of sympathy he displayed, I think, was probably the last nail in

:21:37.:21:40.

the Coffin. I don't know how he's going to get beyond that. Well, the

:21:41.:21:46.

government has a problem with getting rid of people who are in

:21:47.:21:53.

non-governmental... Quangos, who happen to have a Labour past. He is

:21:54.:21:58.

going anyway in July, so I think he will effectively go before then,

:21:59.:22:04.

because he will be an absent force. The narrow issue and the white

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issue. The narrow issue is, are the agencies we have, including the

:22:09.:22:17.

government, been acting competently? It is not only Britain that is

:22:18.:22:21.

affected, huge parts of Russia have been affected by floods, for

:22:22.:22:25.

example. Unprecedented floods, actually, floods on the size of, if

:22:26.:22:32.

you take the territory of Britain, it could be whole counties wide. So

:22:33.:22:39.

Russia's position was always to tackle this particular crisis, and

:22:40.:22:42.

it is very short-term as a policy, so if you take a wider kind of

:22:43.:22:51.

problem on a government level, or a level of several decades, Russia is

:22:52.:22:55.

not really interested in that, it would appear. First, the

:22:56.:22:58.

construction is not up to speed, so they are unable to trade. As long as

:22:59.:23:02.

they can pass the problem onto someone else, they don't care. The

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people at a new mothers all time. In Russia, it has not been snowing up

:23:07.:23:10.

until early January, which was amazing. I have never had a New

:23:11.:23:20.

Year's Day without snow, and people were thinking, I don't necessarily

:23:21.:23:23.

think this is high and Russian agendas, so when it comes to the UN

:23:24.:23:26.

or any international body, Russia has been problematic. I was

:23:27.:23:34.

interested, on the wider question, when we have debates between climate

:23:35.:23:41.

change sceptics and those who are scientists who study this, the

:23:42.:23:44.

thought is, there should not be a debate any more. Do you think we are

:23:45.:23:47.

at that point now, where the debate is still alive for most people, or

:23:48.:23:51.

frankly, they have made up their minds? I think it has shifted. There

:23:52.:23:58.

will, of course, be intransigent sceptics, but I think it is 's

:23:59.:24:06.

switching. It is hitting our bank balance in terms of higher water

:24:07.:24:10.

bills, high energy prices, higher insurance rates, and so on. But it

:24:11.:24:14.

would hit as the other way, wouldn't it? The alternative argument is that

:24:15.:24:19.

similar things being suggested would limit our to grow the economy and

:24:20.:24:23.

hitters in the long-term as well. I don't think that has been

:24:24.:24:25.

articulated the popular consciousness. A great deal of the

:24:26.:24:32.

developing world, because what you are effectively saying in this

:24:33.:24:36.

proposed climate change legislation is, the developing world must not be

:24:37.:24:39.

allowed to become as rich and as comfortable and as well provided for

:24:40.:24:44.

as the already developed world has been for a generation or two. That

:24:45.:24:54.

is a very serious thing. That is the problem, because I think the

:24:55.:24:57.

developed world needs to make the sacrifice. They are ready at an

:24:58.:25:01.

advanced stage of development, and their economies are in far better

:25:02.:25:03.

shape than the developing world. Yes, countries the size of China and

:25:04.:25:08.

India do have to make it isn't sacrifice, but they are at a

:25:09.:25:12.

developing stage, and therefore they cannot be expected to make the same

:25:13.:25:16.

sacrifice as the developed nations. I think quite a lot of Chinese

:25:17.:25:19.

commentators accent that they would be very badly hit by some of these,

:25:20.:25:28.

disproportionately, perhaps, as Wilson areas of India and

:25:29.:25:31.

Bangladesh. Indeed, and therefore countries like India and China have

:25:32.:25:35.

to take into account that they must slow down certain processes, whether

:25:36.:25:39.

that is emissions, any other control that they can bring about, where

:25:40.:25:43.

deforestation has taken place, you read plants trees there, and there

:25:44.:25:47.

are many things that can be done. The thing is, of course, take time

:25:48.:25:51.

to really Germany, but at the same time, I think the West, and by that

:25:52.:25:57.

I mean the first world, have to make a slightly greater sacrifice. We

:25:58.:26:01.

will have to leave it there. We will be back next week at the same time.

:26:02.:26:04.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter. Goodbye.

:26:05.:26:32.

Hello. The weather continues to make headlines. We have seen the latest

:26:33.:26:38.

in a string of big storms to affect the UK, and today, we have an amber

:26:39.:26:41.

warning in force from The Met Office. That is what stronger Nam

:26:42.:26:46.

June wins for many places. An area of low pressure, and you can see to

:26:47.:26:51.

the south of it, tight as bars, bringing us a southerly or

:26:52.:26:54.

south-westerly gale through the course of the day. They could be

:26:55.:26:56.

quite

:26:57.:26:57.

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