01/03/2014 Dateline London

Hello. Welcome to Dateline London. Is Russia provoking the unrest in

Ukraine and can Britten and Germany be best friends in Europe. By guests

are Dmitri Shishkin, Nazenin Ansari, Thomas Kielinger and Alex Deane.

On Europe's border ares Ukraine remains in turmoil. After rather

mysterious Russian troop movements owe Bam's warned rushy against

invasion. Talk us how you think this is scene in Moscow? What Putin's

thinking about this? I should start with a bigger picture. Putin always

said, it is a well known quote, he sees the disintegration of Soviet

Union as the biggest catastrophe of the 21st Century. Definitely he

still sees Ukraine as a very much integral part of the Russian sphere

of influence. Crimea has been Russian since mid`18th Century. He

probably laments the fact it is passed over from Soviet Russia to

Soviet Ukraine in 1954. His judgment was impaired they say? Yes, as of

now Putin's remained silent. Even yesterday when Yanukovych did his

speech he was a mess yesterday. In that sense. He still said, I would

see Putin when Putin finds time effectively which is interesting in

itself. They haven't met yet. Putin hassant' said anything. He thinks

the Foreign Ministry is the rightful way of commenting on the situation

and continues to be the case. Met yes hasn't said much. Prime

Minister, we haven't heard him, Putin. Sorry to interrupt. Putin is

not a particular fan of Yanukovych? No, not at all. I think Putin sees

Yanukovych as a weak leader. He blames him for not being able to

curtail the Orange Revolution of 2004. You can see the Orange

Revolution 2. 0 in 2014, he cannot believe that Ukraine is again in

that situation in turmoil. That's why he wants, given the

sensitivities of the situation, given the fact there are so many

Russian`leaning people in the Ukraine, Ukrainian leaning in

Russia, he will remain silent until sometimes, potentially, well, the

key thing here will be the election in May. But also the referendum in

Crimea in March. How do you see it? If I were Mr Putin, I would be very

disappointed at the moment. Because of his image. It has been shaltered.

This is the worst thing that could have happened to Mr Putin since the

fall of the Berlin Wall. When he sees what's happen happening now.

There's a Georgian delegation, a Moldovan Prime Minister visiting

Washington. His image of this man, this Superman is being tarnished.

But, at the same time, I think Ukraine or Crimea is very different

that Georgia. Ukraine is ten times the size of Georgia. Certainly, I

agree with you, there will not be any invasion or anything. It would

be more like the Soviet reaction to Poland in 1991. Basically, I think

what he would do, perhaps, is sit down, take a backseat, take a deep

breath and see what the other side has to do. How the West will

reracket. It is worth pointing out some of those involved in running

the Ukraine now in Kiev are not exactly angels and the more we find

out about these far right groups, the less attractive they seem. Is

that fair? Certainly, in international pop ticks the winner

is not always the man on the top. Once you win, you have all these

expectations that will emerge. Financial once? Bankruptcy?

Certainly for Ukraine. They have a lot of problems. I don't think the

people who will win the elections will be the ones that will... For

obvious reasons Germany's sensitive to this? The Foreign Minister of the

there a week ago signing agreement with the ex`Prime Minister,

president, rather. Found that was useless as it were. Before the ink

was dry on the paper, developments had moved on. This is the prop, it

is a very fluid situation. Everyone's shooting at a moving

target from moving platforms. Everyone is trying to assert their

interest without being able to enforce it. Russia and America

cannot do anything. America warns. The EU keeps warning. It is up to

decisions. The referendum in March and the more important election in

May. You do need legitimacy in the Ukraine. At the moment, there is a

vacuum. No legitimacy anywhere. The old forces have broken up. The new

forces have yet to assert themselves. We need elections, the

people to speak. Until such a time, everyone has to be sweary. The

situation is hugely flammable. Not sure about seeing so much Russian

military personnel on the ground, whether they are not running ahead

of what people will eventually decide. It is a moving platform.

Very hard to pin it down to a fixed state. Meshing Elland other European

leaders will be wary. William Hague is going to Kiev to meet leaders.

Whatever Britain says and whatever we think, it is very difficult

really to see how to push things forward. It is up to the Ukraine

yaps themselves? There are two different discussions, the

geopolitical and the second, the economic one we've hinted at. It is

easier for us to support an economic sphere than the geopolitical. On the

economics, they are facing a massive current account deficit. They sealed

the deal with Russia to get a 15 billion loan. They need about 25

little US. They will be junk if they fail to make those repayments. They

will be desperate to try to run to keep pace with the status quo and

Government spending. They will be looking for a deal. Whether that

comes from the IMF or EU or they can anotheriate Somerset of parcelled

negotiations. A bit from Russia, a bit from the West, a bit from

private funds. Whatever they do, they have to get their hands on

money. In order to do that, they need to damp down the geopolitical

situation. On that geopolitical situation, we haven't really said it

in blunt terms, the Crimea is an identifiable quite obvious separate

piece of the country. It is almost an island, a peninsula connecting it

to the rest of the country. Courtesy of some brutal politician ``

policies, it has been occupied by people who identify more with Russia

an the Ukraine. An easy solution may be for some deal for Crimea to

become wholly or Parliamentary more Russian in formal terms. Allowing a

more cohesive Ukraine to have a more western lifestyle. Whether that be

formal members with the EU, who knows. They need more money and be a

more cohesive political outlet. ? Ukrainian terms it would be very

hard to explain to people, especially if the new Government is

going to be pro`Western, which it is likely to be. I've been talking to

people who are from the eastern part of the Ukraine. We should not be

saying if they are from the east part of the Ukraine they are

naturally Russian`leaning. They are against corruption and the freed

former Prime Minister. She was implicated in lots of unsafery

dealings. When she went to Medan people are not particularly

supportive of her. As far as Russia's concerned, the Kremlin,

they want Ukraine to continue being as weak as possible. In monetary

terms. Just because it is easier to flex your muscles around it. The

comparison to Georgia is very weak. We are say saying crime ease ya is

2. 3 million people. But the point is you don't need to invade. Russia

has already 25,000 troops already stationed there as part of the

agreement. They had already 400 vessels and sea ships. It is an

autonomous Republic? They had the palace there. Spent their summers

there. Culturally it is a very Russian place. Tatars would disa

agree, the nation deported from Crimea for alleged collaboration

with the Nazis. Internally the situation is to be monitored very

closely. We also have to take into account, consideration the Ukrainian

Parliament has invoked the Budapest member random. A security guarantee

Russia, Britain add the US have given to it. We hear whether this

Budapest memorandum is legally binding or not. But they have

invoked it. Mr Hague visiting Ukraine tomorrow, this would be the

one of the topics high on the agenda. 230 Parliamentarians have

voted for it. The wider concern, like the comparison with Georgia,

the concern about setting a precedent for other bits of the

former US SSR and Putin nibbling away with land grabs either creating

a conflict or saying there's a place that's more Russian than not.

Anything reason Putin stepped back a bit and let more national us

particular sentiment come from the state Duma. It yesterday started

legislation to help other regions which would like to become a part of

Russia much faster which is a little bit political of them. When did we

see last Russia actively defending Russian native population in former

Soviet republics. We see Baltic states in the anyonities. Unpleasant

situations happening in other parts of the Soviet Union. I can't

remember when Russia was actively defending rights. It was only when

the situation developed they could be using the same pretext. Several

years ago when Kosovo became independent, Russia was defending

Serbian territorial authorities. Let's move on. If you take the long

historical view, the last century of hostility between Germany and

Britain is an on ration. A British monarchy is descended from the house

of Hanover. Everything from our music supports close ties. Could a

rekindled British/German friendship change Europe? You are not thinking

about power politics of the 19th Century? I am and earlier. What's

going on in this relationship between meshing Elland Cameron? What

does meshing he will want? She wants to have her cake and eat it. Be true

to her European vocation and responsibilities as the the power of

the most powerful nation in the world. She's not ohm nip tent. Her

most revealing line in her deliver was to be between a rock and a hard

place. She's not trying to represent that section of public opinion in

Germany which says to Britain, to hell with you. Do what you like, we

don't care. She would rather like to come to the aid of wellington though

that's easier said than done. We shouldant' forget the battle of

Waterloo was won by the British and Prussians. There we are, we're back

in the 19th Century. We are but this is not the same situation. She can't

deliver on the promise to help him until she knows more about what he

wants to put on the table in terms of repatriation to Britain. She can

offer sympathies but she's good to emphasise Cameron has a friend in

high places. Meshing he will is on his side but apart from that, as far

as delivery in practical terms, we have very little. It is important to

have this friendship. It can be overdone. The Queen has been thrown

in for good measure. Meshing he will is in herself a Queen. Stands above

politics. Prevaricates herself. She came, she saw, she equiff Kated se.

It's worked successfully over the years. She's been known to not get

too much involved. We have an election in Britain next year. We

don't know whether Mr Cameron will be returned. Will she impose herself

or introduce herself into the Civil War in Britain about Europe? At the

core of it is what does Cameron want? What is going to try to

deliver on Europe? That seems vague. The current aspiration is to build a

coalition of the willing, on the front cover of the Spectator, team

biking, Cameron and Merkel done up rather unconvincingly. He is no

Wotan! Quite, that idea that there might be a low tax or free market

grouped within the EU that might seek to reform it such that Cameron

can keep people happy, and you are right, there is much in common

between us and Germany in traditional and historic terms. But

that sense of alliance Flanders on a fundamental conception on what the

EU was four. `` flounders. My firm belief is that the Germans, broadly

speaking, think of it as a union and the British people, at least the

Conservatives among us, think of it as a route to free`market. Germany

has become so Europeanised, she has almost given up on the idea, in fact

a country almost does, but she likes to couch it in European terms, and

that is the true belief of Germans, that they are more European than

German. She said that in his speech, it made the European

correspondence drop their dense. But for the German press, that is

normal. It was Catherine the great who gave Crimea, the grand dame, but

now it is the great Angela of Europe. Mr Cameron needs her more

than at any time in his political career. In fact, I think the visit

here by the German Chancellor was even more important than the visits

by any US president. So certainly, I think that Britain, let's talk about

Maastricht. At that time there were 12 members, now there are 28. So the

way for Britain to exit the EU or not, it is much more difficult.

Angela the Great has to decide it. America is out of the loop, this is

a European issue, where there is no need to ask... But from your time in

the United States, both parties, if they ever think about Britain and

its future, they both want Britain to play an active role in the

European Union. They give their blessing to that. If Scotland

becomes independent, we will all find an accommodation, and in the

same way, were we to leave the European Union, in whatever form,

they would come an accommodation and the Americans would react to it.

They may not encourage it, because most states, they like stability and

they like their allies to be predictable, weather that is

internally desirable or not. It is very telling that when people are

talking about such complexes used in public, internally they have

different views on a particular subject. Angela Merkel wants

something from Cameron which he does not want to be involved with, and

vice versa. They can help each other still, even though their aims are

different. What I think is that it's just continues to show the

dysfunctionality of the European Union in its current form, 28 member

states, starting from the very economic facing union, going towards

wider political union. If you wanted to change something, Cameron keeps

saying, we want to change the fundamental principles, and that

would require a referendum in some member states. Everyone understands

Cameron's frustration with the lack of growth in Europe, and we promised

each other 40 years ago that, within a decade, Europe would be the most

growth orientated area in the world. But we are mired in bureaucracy,

overregulation, and Cameron wants to rattle the doors of this almost

decrepit system. Angela Merkel is of the same mind. In terms of the

bureaucracy, the lack of growth, but in terms of structure. Only to an

extent is she's sympathetic. Talking about a rock and a hard place, for

Cameron, pushed too hard for form, lose Merkel. Do not push hard

enough, lose your own party. One specific issue was immigration,

where there is some fellow feeling with Germany because richer

countries from the north of Europe tend to attract workers from Kura

countries, accession countries. How difficult is that for Cameron now?

It is more difficult because there is a party to the right of him with

a populist message that will beat him in the European elections, and

the rise of UKIP, of course, they draw votes from across the political

spectrum, as they always want to emphasise, but there main effect is

to deny the consider the party resource on the right. That is

derailing Cameron's messages, which is more free market and free

movement, actually. Any hint away from free movement, however

sympathetic Germans as a whole might be, the elite is against it. It is a

core principle of the EU. Cameron's message will be drawn away by that,

but there is now a ballot of the well`developed political movement in

this country saying populist things about immigration to the right of

him, which will deny him a majority, at least, at the next election.

There is a delusion underlying this issue, people talk about wanting to

stop economic migration, but the problem is that Britain is a hugely

popular and attractive country, the way of life, the English language,

the labour market is so attractive that you will be drowned for

evermore in immigration from Europe and Laura Nations. They do not

necessarily come for benefits. `` poorer nations. Germany or any other

country, from the point of view of language, is not nearly as

attractive. Should we celebrate this or say it is a problem? You are a

victim of your popularity. Even yesterday, my friend, a designer, he

does posh flats for Russians in London, he was showing as one of his

works in progress, and who was building the flats? Polish workers,

the best builders, she said to me, discounting Ukrainians, who are not

yet here! No, but I mean, right of movement, travel, is part of the

Helsinki accords, human rights, but we have come to a juncture in

history where you have to really take a realistic perspective. Of

course, Britain is a popular place to come thanks to the language, the

beautiful... The weather that we have! But at the same time it is a

question of finances, and Germany itself is also feeling the pinch,

and the more you open up Europe, the more you enlarge membership, that is

something that not only Germany and France, but the French will also

start. There is only a finite number of countries still to be given

access to Europe, we are only talking about the Balkans? Ukraine!

Turkey! Iran! You cannot keep talking about the original four

freedoms, because at the time, 30 years ago, history has changed

enormously. You have to keep going back to the issue to define them. Do

we go deeper or wider? That is not resolved. There has to be a

resolution of these principles, ideals, with what is happening on

the ground. Do you see any kind of coalition of the willing, to go back

to the phrase she used, of countries which recognise that there really is

a problem in the EU and intent to do something about it? Like Britain and

Germany, the contributors. Icy the possibility of them coming together

on these issues and others. `` I see. She indicated her pent`up

desire to be closer to Cameron, and with the other nations she has to

clear this with the rest of Europe. She cannot appeared to be speaking

unilaterally, as it were. She is only one amongst 28 nations, albeit

the most powerful one. There is room for movement. You are right, we have

a migration debate wrapped up in a benefits debate. There is more to it

than that. On the specific point about coming here to claim benefits,

which Britain is having a debate in the European Court, there was

support from Germany and also from the Scandinavians, who experienced

that kind of movement. In broader terms, it is doomed to fail, a

coalition like that, because in the end the project will prevail.

Because of the prospect of referendums. You can make coalitions

for individual topics. That is it for Dateline, we are back next week

at the same time. You can comment on the programme on Twitter. Thanks for

watching and goodbye. Hello, the 1st of March. A chilly

start to the month, frost, fog and ice to contend with, the best of