05/04/2014 Dateline London

will be drier and brighter, with Scotland still a little bit wet and

cloudy. Welcome to the programme. Three big

elections in France, India and Afghanistan. The people of France

went to the polls, at least some of them did, and delivered a stinging

rebuke to to the speech of Francois Hollande. How much trouble as France

really in, and in the run`up to the European Parliament elections, is

this affecting most European governments? In terms of the

president, is he being reinvigorated in this, or did people not actually

care? Everything is relative. Usually the participation in France

is extremely high compared to other countries. Especially during the

presidential election, remember during the second round with Nicolas

Sarkozy, 87% of the people went to cast their vote. This time it is

61%, but is a historical low. If you compare it with other countries, it

is a lot better than Britain. That was my point, actually.

Traditionally, people from the left do not go and vote, but people from

the to Don Revie said President Holland needs to change course. That

is what happened. His former Interior Minister is a

strong figure. He is divisive within the French left. He belongs to the

right of the left. The Economist said he was a socialist Sarkozy, I

am not sure about that, but his market is liberal. We thought has he

learnt his lesson? He is taking action, but the day after we've got

the new Cabinet and it is old faces. The most interesting thing of all.

Why is it the most interesting thing? The person is the former

partner of the president who must have a big smile on her face, I

reckon. She must be happy to see the back of

her rival in his private life. It is a soap opera. What you said earlier

really is interesting, why does the left, whether it is in France or

here, why have they lost the will? Have they lost the ideas? Aren't we

just a little bit lazy too? In referring to parties like Labour and

the Socialist Party on France's left. Based on when I became

politically aware as a teenager, they are at best Macmillanite and

the Democrats are Republicans for goodness sake. Let's stop talking

about the left, but the thing that interested me about this election

was two things. One is it shows that Paris really is divorced in the way

that London is divorced from the rest of the country. It remains a

socialist stronghold, but that kind of socialist because you have to be

a millionaire to live in Paris really. Less of a millionaire than

in London. Well, here you have to be a billionaire or oligarch. UKIP

shows nationalism is really becoming the Is. Is `` ism of the moment and

these parties are drawing disaffected left`wing voters behind

a nationalist banner. I think in trance we look at the National Front

and we worry about it, but Marie Le Pen has been successful in

legitimising a party that under her father was clearly racist and is

becoming a real potent force. I think they haven't broken through

yet. They are still in that 15% or below category, but there is better

prospect for Marie Le Pen than her father, but to come back to the

point that we were making, hisically and `` historically and generally,

there is medium`term blues and therefore during medium`term you

have freak results, but added to that has been this economic downturn

and that economic downturn has not really turned around as

spectacularly as you would in the European theatre. And people blame

whatever Government is in power? Whether it is the extreme right in

France or the UKIP in Britain, these are part and parcel of developments

which are a combination of what I describe as medium`term blues and

the economic melt down. It is really false presumption to say there is no

difference between the left and the right. There is a very big

difference. It is a very clear difference. There is a left. I am

saying when we speak of a left, you know, the implication is that

socialist or Social Democratic and I am not sure that's true anymore. It

is clear wherever. There is much bigger faith in a Welfare State and

a smaller state. Workers' wages and rights. There are some very clear

dividing lines. What about workers rights for example? I am going to

look at rights. Can we sitting here today, a year from an election be

certain that if you vote for Ed Miliband's party, for the Labour

Party, that there will be strict regulation of the City of London

within six months of his taking office, within five years of his

taking office if he gets elected Prime Minister? No. Can we be

certain that these, you know, contracts, these hour, no hour

contracts, zero hour contracts will be made illegal the day after Labour

takes power? This is a different conversation we're having. There is

a big difference. To go back to the French election and I do think, yes,

the economic downturn and so on, but I do also think that there has been

a rolling over by those people who in the past would have cared to

speak up. It seems as if the left is either too scared or too indifferent

or in the case of France, it is from where I am sitting, careless. Or

divided. The problem is if you look at Cabinet, the new French Cabinet,

you have got all the representatives of the factions of the Socialist

Party. It looks as if President Holland is running not a country,

but a Socialist Party. And has to keep everybody happy? Exactly. Do

you see the argument in France. It goes back to something you touched

on where you can ip is strong `` UKIP is strong and the National

Front is strong, they are all the same. It seems to be a club for

insiders. If you are an outsider like Marie Le Pen and Nigel Farage,

you can make a lot of head way? They are the same, right, left and they

are not. I agree with you... There is the unpopularity of the president

at the moment. Yes. And his performance over the last two years

which added to his woes. The problem with president Holland although he

is a nice warmer man that his predecessor. He wants to please

everyone. Sarkozy didn't suffer from that problem? They detested him. And

particularly women, he wants to please all women. For a person who

is described as colourless, he has a very colourful private life. Indeed.

Organising elections in India is an astonishing thing. What's at stake

for India and given the growing importance of the country's economy

and the rivalleries with spak `` rivalries with Pakistan and China.

The scope of the election is amazing. Anybody who thinks of 800

million or most of them going to the polls, has to be in awe of how India

exercises this? It is a staggering exercise in democracy. It has to be

held in not just one day, but over several phases because there are

security implications and therefore, more and more of the election

commission in India which is an efficient and independent body has

found it necessary to spread it out rather than have it altogether. It

means you can move security personnel from area to area because

they are the trained people? Precisely. In terms of what's at

stake now? The economist front page cover story, can anyone stop? A

month is a long time and what happens between now and the final

round of voting which is the 12th May, the first round by the way is

on Monday. Is something which is still a little bit up in the air. If

you ask a pollster today then he will tell you that the right`wing

party which is led by this rather unacceptable leader will probably

emerge as the largest single party. Sorry, for those people not familiar

with him. Just to go back to what I was saying before, does he

capitalise on the fact that he is a bit of an outsider? Look at the

Gandy family and look at others and he is quite successful? His

propaganda has been very successful over a sustained period particularly

over the past three to four years and he has painted the Congress

Party as being incompetent, utterly corrupt. Now, this is a perception

when it comes to some of what he has been saying, but what he has been

saying has certainly created a resonance and therefore, you have a

situation where a really dangerous situation could emerge in India. It

is a disturbing development in Indian politics, whether it will

happen or not, I don't know because the BJP will find it difficult to

get coalition partners in order to get a majority. Well, how divisive

do you see him? Oh, completely. He was banned from the USA. This

entire, massacre which is what it was has been unaddressed by him and

I am astonished how many Indians in this country are active, funders of

this man and active supporters of this man, but where I think hope may

lie I remember being in India in that election when the BJP last won,

you know, and it was quite shocking how quickly the population, with

this propaganda and it was overtly anti`Muslim, anti`Christian, quite

dangerously Hindu fundamentalist in many ways, they wanted to rewrite

the textbooks and they wanted to create a new histor but... They did

rewrite the textbooks. But they disappeared in the next election and

that was interesting. The thing that interested me by chance, I was at an

airport and the rally was a kilometre away. Bombs went off. Four

people were killed. He gave the speech and I was in the lounge

waiting to takeoff and everyone was watching, I haven't seen a

politician hold a room of ordinary people like that in a long time.

Maybe Tony Blair in the mid`1990s when he took over the Labour Party,

he seemed to be some hope figure. Or Obama at the very start. Or Obama, I

don't speak the language, but everyone was hanging on his every

word. He has been successful at avoiding the questions about the

massacres and why is he successful? Because he turned the area around

economically and he appeals to this new middle`class because he is

saying, you know, I'm going to take the regulations away, you will be

able to make your money and you won't have to bribe the Congress

official to get your export licence. And this is a very big deal. The

libertarian, charismatic politician. Nigel Farage is a

complete establishment figure. He is an MEP, earning lots and lots of

money for not even doing the job. He is an insider. He prevents him as

being an outsider. He has been part of this organisation called the RHS

which runs and controls the BJP and he in his present dispensation which

is chief minister has this development model which is another

distortion and exaggeration because while there has been some good work

done, and in industry and investment has been fast`tracked, but it is a

case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

The poorest are the Muslims. It is interesting this suggestion about

people who say they are outsiders, but actually, Marie Le Pen is an

interesting case. Of course. It is interesting we haven't uttered the

word the Gandi family. It is interesting the Indians should

actually look as if they are fed`up and want to change, but perhaps for

another dynasty and in France as well, you know, Marie Le Pen is not

an outsider. Is that the story of our times, insiders pretending to be

outsiders and people buy it? The outsider thing helps. You know, a

few years ago, Nick Clegg was the outsider. They did the debates,

right? Nick Clegg knew he had no chance of winning that election. So

he could say whatever he wanted. He seemed fresh. He speaks his mind. He

is not, you know, focus grouping his soundbites and now Nigel Farage

takes on Nick Clegg, Nick Clegg is the Deputy Prime Minister, he can't

say what he really thinks because he is speaking, in a way, he is a

Government figure. Nigel Farage can say whatever he likes and the public

is so hungry, there is so much politics on TV anyway with the 24

hour news cycle, people are hungry to hear somebody say not a

soundbite, but a straight talk and they don't think about the

implications, they are saying he seems genuine or she seems genuine.

I do not even understand a word authentic. We are not smoking any

more, we are much healthier, thanks to Europe. There are better workers

rights, thanks to Europe. But no one asks the real question is, what do

you mean, what are these regulations, how have they affected

our nation? It is this idea we do not want the state to do anything,

but at the same time we want them to do everything. It is a very confused

democratic mindset now. Let us move on. The attack on two

western women journalists in Afghanistan reminds us not just of

the dangers in that country as Afghans also have been going to the

polls. It also reminds us that a war which has now lasted longer than the

First and Second World Wars put together has not brought peace, and

whatever social changes have been achieved could also be reversed. How

hopeful should we be about Afghanistan's future? You have to be

hopeful. Of course you have to be hopeful. But was it worth it? All

this time, all this money? I do not know. What I do know is that life

expectancy has gone up 20 years, the economy has quadrupled, there are

some good signs. And seeing these women going out to vote. How long

will it be before the Taliban margins in and hangs people on

trees? I cannot tell you. Once the majority, there is a lot of things

that have to be sorted out, but ones that stick the Caliban have used for

years, talking about puppet governments, once that are seen to

be removed, it takes away some of the credibility that the Caliban can

have in that argument, saying we are run an occupied country. They could

hit back in certain pockets of Afghanistan. I do not think they

have the ability at the present moment of taking on the whole of

Afghanistan or the entire Afghanistan administration and

security forces, even after the withdrawal of American troops. The

good news is this is the third election taking place in Afghanistan

in a row, and you are looking at a peaceful handover of power, which is

a great development by itself, it is a positive sign and there is room

for optimism. But certainly, when Western troops withdraw from

Afghanistan at the end of the year, I think the security situation will

be looked at more closely. And Pakistan has an important role to

play in discouraging the Caliban. `` Taliban. Do you think the first role

will be to decide what role the Americans have to play in the

future? Yes, a final agreement is yet to be signed. But the aid deals

depend on it. See you think something will have to come from it.

Presumably President Karzai will remain a figure in the politics? He

may, he may not. It flashes across my news feed all the time, he may

just be moving next door to the presidential palace. The short`term

thing is we should be really pleased. People are genuinely

interested in creating a democratic Afghanistan. We have to be hopeful

and support them. But the future of Afghanistan in the medium`term is it

has got phenomenal potential natural resources to export, and this is

where the dark question comes in because the Chinese, who have been

building the world's largest copper mine, just south`west of Kabul have

pulled out because the security situation is too poor. They need to

be brought back in. Other international groups need to be

brought back into provide real employment because right now

warlords provide the employment, and as long as you have that you cannot

establish democracy. I had a private conversation with an American

military official who said that the one thing that can transform

Afghanistan more than anything is proper railway links to get natural

resources to the outside world properly. That has a security

dimension, which is the problem, but to change the infrastructure to

connect Afghanistan in a different way would transform the country. It

would, and it is interesting, in the late 90s, Afghanistan used to visit

the United States because they were going to build a pipeline from

Turkmenistan through Afghanistan. The company went out of business, so

perhaps we can revive these contact is in the oil industry! . But it has

not changed the balance. I think the Western alliance needs to come

clean, was this worth it? They have still not told us how many ordinary

Afghans have been killed by forces and drones, both in Pakistan and

here. It was shocking to me that the today programme two days ago said,

how many of our soldiers were killed? But they did not even give a

number, let alone names, how many Afghans died in this venture? We

cannot just walk away as if we have done nothing here. But today, as we

mentioned, the images coming from Afghanistan, I think we have to

suspend our judgement about politics and what is going to happen, and I

think it is good to be slightly naive and to rejoice. This woman who

said, with that hand I slapped the Taliban. So 70 years ago, French

women were given the right to vote, and today I just happy... Cyan, yes,

but we have two look at what we did, good and bad. We have to look at

India's State. Yes, India has put in nearly $2 billion of investment into

Afghanistan. Ansel India has played, I must say, a very

constructive role. That it is important to get chain are

interested in Afghanistan, and I will tell you why. China pulling out

of copper mines and suchlike is not good news. The international

community needs to get chain are involved because of China

involved, then Pakistan will stay involved, then Pakistan will stay

away from Mr. That is necessary because, once China goes in, they

will make sure that Pakistan does not get involved with the Taliban to

create mischief. The other point is that the Americans went in without a

plan to exit. They went in with that one agenda of defeating the Taliban,

removing the Taliban, which is fine, I have no problems with that, but

they needed a plan to have stability in Afghanistan. We have to leave it

here. We are back next week at the same time. Please join us then. You

can comment on the programme on twitter. `` Twitter.

Hello. This gives you a sense of some of the major themes from this

weekend's weather prospects. There will be rain at times and a lot of

cloud around. There will be a fresh breeze, but that is coming from the

south`west, which has banished many of the pollution problems we have

seen in some parts of Britain