13/02/2016 Dateline London


13/02/2016

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LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

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A pause in fighting is obviously desirable in Syria

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Are Americans preparing for President Trump

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And David Cameron's European Tour - will it end in success?

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My guests today are Greg Katz of Associated Press,

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Rachel Shabi, who is a writer on Middle Eastern affairs,

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Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab journalist and broadcaster,

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Good to see you. A ceasefire of some kind in Syria within a week appears

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if not impossible, extremely difficult. Can it happen and how far

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is Islamic State capable of shifting attacks to Theatre, North Africa and

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perhaps Libya. Will a ceasefire happen? I am very sceptical here,

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maybe a season of hostilities to let human aid get through to the

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besieged area, maybe it is a possibility, but I believe the

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ceasefire is impossible, because the people who have the upper hand on

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the ground are really not included in this agreement, al-Nusra the

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grades and Islamic State or ices. -- al-Nusra brigades. On top of that

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president Assad of Syria said something alarming yesterday, he

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said negotiation to doesn't mean which should stop fighting

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terrorism, we will continue fighting terrorists all the time. So how can

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we have a ceasefire while the major players are not included in these

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talks, or president Assad is very determined to go ahead, and he

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gained a lot recently on Aleppo in particular, and the major drive of

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Russia and the Syrian president is to close the Syrian-Turkish border

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in order to prevent any supply, any logistics, weapons, Fighters, to

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join Islamic State and the al-Nusra brigades. I think maybe there is a

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hidden agreement to let the Syrian army and the Russians to continue

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the bombardment in order to seal the Turkish-Syrian border. Just one

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specific question, do you think the Russians could turn the tap off for

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Assad, stop supplying him and helping him with bombs, and control

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the fighting. If the fighting simply because the Russians are now bombing

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and apparently bombing civilians, although they deny it, everybody

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else thinks they are. Definitely, the Russians have the upper hand on

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Syria, definitely, after their military intervention, they change

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the equation. Assad now is some sort of a player in their hands, they say

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stop, he waltzed, continue, he continue. But if the Russians are

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serious about this Syrian armed opposition to have the upper hand in

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certain areas like Aleppo and adjacent to Turkey, this is the big

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question. I believe the Syrians are serious, Assad will continue and he

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will be a president and fight the next election, and will not let the

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Turks and Saudis succeed here. Also they were say to be Americans, we

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are very serious, if you want a third World War we are willing for

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it, but if you want to listen to us, we are ready to compromise. Rachel.

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I think what Russia has been doing has been spectacularly unhelpful,

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just when we thought the conflict in Syria couldn't get worse, it has,

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and it looks like it could get worse still. On the other hand it was

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foretold. When Bashar al-Assad says what he says, it is hard but no

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great surprise, this is the Civil War, a 0-sum game, he is backed by

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Russia and will get what he can get. The thing disturbing me is that we

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are still giving succour in this proxy war to an opposition that

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cannot win, there is no winning here. So what we are saying to them

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is, you can fight this honourable war, and there is no greater cause

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than trying to get rid of a brutal dictator who is murdering and

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torturing you, there is no greater cause than that, but if we say to

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them, you can fight that until there are no Syrians left, let's say that,

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because that's what the reality years. As abhorrent as Assad is, him

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stay in some kind of negotiated peace solution where he transitions

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out, and I am not sure the Russians are attached to him so much as

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having a stronghold in Syria. They are attached to their warships

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there. Exactly. That solution is completely repulsively but it is the

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best solution, and at some point we will have to well not about. I spoke

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to a senior British diplomat very familiar with the area, and he said

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he thinks the reason there is a call for a ceasefire, cessation of

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hostilities, whatever we call it, is that the West has run out of ideas

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and Russia is effectively making the run. One thing to ask yourself is

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what Russia actually can conceivably achieve or believes it can achieve.

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It certainly cannot believe, if it is rational, that it could achieve a

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situation whereby Assad takes back over Syria, that will not happen, he

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doesn't have the capacity or strength to keep it even if they

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bomb everybody out of all the areas. One of the reasons why Russia are so

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tragically wrong about the opposition is that they does require

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to be some strengthening of those forces who might be in contention to

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take over large parts of Syria, otherwise you absolutely do have

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nothing there. It reminds me a little about the arguments about the

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Spanish Civil War. Which forces you would like to back, Saudi forces,

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Turkish forces? I am not going to take part in this Socratic dialogue.

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If you want instant forces there are a lot of groups, some more powerful

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another's. Can they rule the country? No, the question is whether

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they can roll part of the country, and the scenario you paint, which is

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not the question I was asked, which is where you effectively abandoned

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the thing to the imagination of Assad, which he can't. Your solution

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is a non-solution. John Terry has been very clear this weekend, he has

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been very critical of the Russians, has basically said there are

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difficulties ahead but if this doesn't work, the call to jihad will

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be even stronger, and he is right about that, I think. That the trend

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we have seen for the last 18 months and we have seen Edexcel rating, and

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perhaps a side benefit for the Russian strategy is the knees and

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instability they are creating in southern Europe by displacing so

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many people. We are getting ready for the European summit on Thursday

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Friday and we are looking at this migration crisis that has not

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slowed. The number of people leaving Syria has remained pretty much

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constant despite the winter, so there are all kinds of strategic

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benefits for Russia at this point by pursuing this policy. Canny ask you

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about Libya, what you think will happen there? We don't talk about it

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much but maybe we should. There is always an under of the situation in

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the Middle East from the West in particular. You spoke about the

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British diplomat who said we have run out of ideas, it is true, they

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have been there for five years but achieved nothing. They underestimate

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the strength of Islamic State or Isis. What happens now, even if you

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destroy ice is in Syria and Iraq, what is the alternative? What will

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happen, what is plan B? Now, this kind of organisation is expanding.

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The problem is Libya now, they have more than 7000 fighters in Libya. It

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is officers, fighters, soldiers of Gaddafi turning to Islamic State the

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way former Saddam Hussein Republican guards did. They are strong and try

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to attack the so-called oil present in Libya and were about to control

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it, and special forces, British authors, French forces, prevented

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them. The man who used to be the leader of Islamic State in Iraq and

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Syria has moved to Libya and is reorganising his troops, and... He

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is originally from Georgia so is very influential and experienced in

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organising, recruiting people and putting military plans in place. It

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is very dangerous. Nato now is trying to fix the mess it created

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when it intervened five years ago. The decapitation of the Gaddafi

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regime. Guess, so this is the problem. I think the mess was

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slightly created by Libyan civil war. What happened to Libya is

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exactly why we should look at what happens in Syria. You are kidding,

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listen to what you just said. Let me finish the sentence. 450,000 dead in

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Syria and we should be get bored because of Libya? If you take away a

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regime and leave an opposition in capable of holding ground, that

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ground will go to Islamic State. Some of that is true but we have

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managed essentially by taking your advice, by the way, to concede

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exactly that situation in Syria, because the Assad regime was not

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strong enough to hold that ground, not because we put troops there or

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did what the Russians did but because we let it go, but we let it

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go... The other problem with this is that you cannot run history as two

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separate experiments. If there had not be an intervention in Benghazi

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many people would have been killed and would with doing heart searching

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that we did about Bosnia. But how many people killed by these Nato

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bombardment is? This theory that Gaddafi was going to massacre his

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people is not proven. It was speculation. He said he would do it.

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It was propaganda to prepare the ground for the Nato intervention.

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How many people were killed by the Nato bombardment, we don't know.

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What happened after that? Islamic State came and the Islamic militia

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took over, anarchy, bloody anarchy, thousands of immigrants coming to

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Europe. A final thought on this and I want to move on. You are seeing

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the result of a series of strategic blunders where the military has been

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used and has produced results that are counter to our collective

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national security. The attacks to protect the civilians to Benghazi

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was well-meaning and look what is left, that is my point. Let's move

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on. Donald Trump meets the Republican establishment candidates

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in New Hampshire, the first significant test of what ordinary

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voters think of him. Bernie Sanders... Is a trump-Sanders

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Presidency likely? I think Sanders has a great chance and would move to

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the centre and would possibly be an electoral campaign. Hillary

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Clinton's campaign has faltered badly. Sanders has a credible path

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but at the moment he is not the favourite. I think Trump is the

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favourite and Hillary is faltering badly, not connecting with voters

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how she needs to. One of many things about this that the prize me is the

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general coverage of the campaign, and this has happened so many times

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before particularly in the British press, there is a candidate who is a

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joke, that is the way he is treated, trump, Reagan, then all of a sudden

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you find that this is not a joke but a serious candidate who might win.

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Whether you like him or not is a different matter but they have to be

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treated seriously. An American colleague of mine was warning at

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least a year ago, stop treating Trump like a joke, it is serious and

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it is scary, and you had this wish the media would take him more

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seriously. What is interesting about this election campaign, Salon .com

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described it as a mass interaction against a rigged system, and it

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seems to be that is what is happening in the same way it is

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happening across Europe, with Corbin and the progressives and the far

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right across Europe, people just being fed up with unaccountable,

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undemocratic, self-serving elites that are in thrall to serving

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corporations and not interested in the 99%, set against rising costs,

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plummeting wages, job insecurity, massive wealth inequality, and what

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we are seeing with these progressives like Sanders is a

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reaction to that, a rebellion against that. We are also seeing it

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across the Western world. There is a bit of problem, racialist partially

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right but partially wrong. You have given me a partial right! It will be

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so heavily qualified in a moment... LAUGHTER Here comes the standard

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explanation of what might be a left insurgency and a complete failure in

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anyway to explain the right-wing insurgency. It is coming from the

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same thing. Then why choose a multi billionaire property magnate as the

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vehicle for this other America which is not run by money Mike. Sarah

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Pailin, who is always worth repeating, said Donald Trump is from

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the private sector, so in other words, although he is different from

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Sanders, it is still an insurgency because he is outside the system. I

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think she is right about that. This is the point that is right, there is

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an insurgency, but I am not sure the reasons given for it are the real

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reasons. I think they are part of the conceivable reasons. The other

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part is the year row we are in, of a kind of comic easy form of

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identification, individualist identification, with a candidate or

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a stance, rather than a programme and a series of policies and

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compromises you have to do to carry out. I have missed several tricks.

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That is why I have been here. You have missed the fact that Sanders

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and Corbin across Europe, they are the anti-leaders, they don't

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identify with the leader, they say they represent movements. What did I

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miss in the election therefore that we held in May last year, an actual

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age and, not a putative thing, what happened, who won it? The Tories won

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it. Listen to those over here! The most popular candidate in the most

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Arab world is Bernie Sanders. It says a lot. Seriously? Seriously,

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they are looking at him as a progressive, and a man who

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understands, certainly because Jewishness for him is a culture, not

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elude. He criticised Netanyahu and said the American president would

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decide the foreign policy of the United States, not the Israeli prime

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minister, and he is talking about poor people, how to help them, so he

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is ahead of Hillary Clinton, which is not popular in the Middle East.

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It tells you a lot... It tells you a lot about the Arab world! He is a

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good man. I hope you wouldn't... They want you to tell them what

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Jewishness is on away there can accept rather than what they cannot

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accept. That is probably not the top note that statement. But he is a

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progressive, he is winning. It is resonating with people and there is

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a reason for that. Why should we stand against him? You doubted

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Jeremy Corbyn would be elected and he is now the head of the Labour

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Party. I was absolutely astonished that he was elected but there was an

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anticipation, I certainly had it, didn't hold onto it for too long,

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but anticipation that people would say, look, on the whole it would be

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better to elect a labour leader who stood even a remote chance of

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becoming Prime minister, because with some of the things we might

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want to happen stand some little chance. There is no point... There

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is no point in a minimum wage or additional money on the NHS. There

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is no point in picking an austerity like candidate, doing just what the

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Tories do but a bit better, why not just change the whole thing? Going

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back to American politics for a minute, Bernie Sanders will now

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shoot ahead with his endorsement. Going back to the point I was making

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about trump, it would be stupid for people to underestimate a guy, a

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Jewish guy from New York goes to Vermont, becomes mayor of the month

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then goes to the Senate and says he is a socialist and winds in New

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Hampshire. This is someone who clearly has something which connects

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with a lot of people. Bernie is talented. I

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knew him in Vermont, I went is to school there when he was younger and

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more arrogant. Now he is older he comes across as fatherly and the

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vile killer so he has grown into his arrogance. If the Democrats go with

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Sanders, Bloomberg could be a formidable third party candidates,

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like Ralph Nader or Ross Perot, could tip an election towards trump,

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Rubio, cruise or any Republican candidate. On that happy note of not

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knowing what is going on. We will say you cannot criticise David

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Cameron, this is loan word, of chillaxing, when it comes to the

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European Union. As his campaign for a better deal in Europe closes, as

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he got the best we can hope for and will this convince the people have

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voted in the referendum, what do you think? My problem is I don't care

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about this deal very much because it is a deal essentially for the

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Conservative Party's benefit, and is done in order to give the maximum

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number of conservatives the maximum leeway to say, we have not done too

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badly so we can stay in. In fact, the speech Cameron gave last night

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was not just an argument in favour of his reform package but a gigantic

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argument in favour of having their opinion and staying in it at almost

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all costs. Which is your position. It is a strategic necessity for a

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country like ours which has been recognised by leaders going back to

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Macmillan and beyond, for Britain to be part of the European Union and

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the European Alliance, as much as also part of a transatlantic

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alliance, and to cop out of it I think would be a major disaster. I

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would vote for the EU, the matter what this deal was, but what

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surprises me is that he even has what he has, which is an indication

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that other European governments are nervous as well about the prospects

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of a British exit. Two unusual things have happened, one is I agree

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with David when he says it is more about the Tory party. Jeremy Corbyn

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said that. I am not bound by his word but thanks for that endorsement

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of my independence of mind! The second thing I said is interesting

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and I never thought I would say is I'm quite impressed by the way

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Cameron has handled Europe. He has done a good job, in that charming,

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chummy way our political and media elites have, he has in gauge to

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European leaders in the past few months who were keen on him to begin

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with, and he has turned around the EU which may be a year ago would

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have said, leave, we don't want you with your stupid exception list

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demands. He has brought them round and is much as it pains me to say

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that is to his credit. It is also due to other things being broken in

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the EU, the immigration question and Borders. David Cameron manipulated

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the weakness of Europe in order to gain some concessions. When I say

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the weakness, the European Union is in its week is time now because of

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the immigration problems, because of the border, and because this

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agreement and the quotas and so on. He decided to hit now, so it might

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say, OK, if you wanted to stay you have to make concessions. Europe

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want him in and also David Cameron wanted to stay in Europe. If he

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didn't he could make his terms and conditions much more difficult to be

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accepted. But he has made his conditions once he think the

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Europeans can accept. That is something pro-and anti-Europeans in

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this country agree about, that the bar has been set. John Kerry also

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said this weekend he thinks Britain's places in the EU. That is

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the view in Washington. Yes, the Obama people have been clear that

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Britain has two stay in the EU from the US point of view. There was a

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story this morning that the US is planning a fairly aggressive... The

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Obama people are trying to figure out to what degree Obama personally

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lobbying for this would either help the cause or hurt it, because they

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don't want to be seen to be telling Brits what to do or how to vote, but

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they are alarmed about Britain pulling out, the nuclear deterrent,

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Scotland possibly leaving the UK, the thing that could be set in

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motion at a time of increased Russian aggression, Britain pulling

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out of Europe makes Washington nervous. They are used to thinking

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Britain as their closest, most influential ally, and they are

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afraid of that. So some of those things have come out already, but

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the only calculation from the Obama administration is whether he makes a

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big thing of it, whether it is counter adopted --

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counter-productive. Yes. But they are really worried in Washington.

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The verb is sleepwalking, it you guys could be sleepwalking to

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withdrawal from the EU which to Washington makes no sense. It is

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difficult from a progressive point of view, clearly the EU is

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problematic, and democratic, and accountable and secretive and

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serving elites. Aside from that?! Talk about what the Romans have ever

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done for us! We need to strengthen the things like the human rights

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function, the Labour directive argument, why freedom of movement is

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needed. We are not having a chance to air a progressive conversation

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about reforming the EU. Varoufakis did that last week. As a journalist

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this will be a huge story for us, I would like to see more people on the

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yes and no side. That's it for Dateline London this week. You can

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comment on the programme on Twitter, @gavinesler. We are back next week

:25:33.:25:33.

at the same time. Goodbye. Let's see what the weather is up

:25:34.:25:52.

to for the rest of today.

:25:53.:25:56.

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