19/03/2016 Dateline London

bringing lots of cloud. If you get any sunshine, send us a picture of

it. This week, a spectacular resignation

from the British Government, can the Turkey agreement work

and is Donald Trump now unstoppable? My guests this week are -

Alex Deane, from Conservative Home, Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt,

Greg Katz, from Associated Press, and Eunice Goes, who's

a Portuguese writer. So an explosive resignation

in the British government. The Minister for Work

and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith resigned over the proposed

introduction of cuts to disability Cuts he described as

"a compromise too far." Thomas, your thoughts on that? From

his point of view it might be a compromise to far. But his

resignation is a step too far. He says the budget has too many

political overtones. I think is all resignation is full of political

offer tones. There is this lack of team spirit. -- overtones. He should

have known about all this coming in the budget, he could've chosen

another moment to resign or to let the cabinet no that this could lead

to his resignation. This looks as if it is a plunge to this government.

There is no need for that. If he is opposed to it, there is a better way

to do it, warning his colleagues that this may be in the offing. I am

not so sure. He has been struggling with George Oswald was Mark --'s

eyes on his department. Iain Duncan Smith has struggled with all the

intentions of George Osborne, there has been the mess of Universal

Credit, the tax credits, they do not get along. They do not get on at

all, so it was the tip of the iceberg. There is also another

thing, direct set. If these things happen in politics, they do happen.

When they resign, they tried to use as much damage to create as much

damage as they can to the government. -- Brexit. But they are

policy. He is on the out and did not want to sit by and watch this being

done in 's name. This accentuates all of the divisions they are facing

with Brexit. Somebody used the word dagger, this could be a situation

where the camera in government unravels loses the Brexit vote, or

they may face three or four months of trauma and then consolidate

later. But they are in a crisis period right now. How much damage to

using their as to the Chancellor, given his personal relationship, and

to David Cameron and the accusations brought by Ian Duncan Smith, in

effect the government does not care? It is pretty significant. I disagree

with Thomas that it is just a personal thing. I think Iain Duncan

Smith is a very principled man. And as a former leader of the party, he

is someone of great standing in the party, admired by the grassroots,

and he is on the right of the party, and were seen as a standard-bearer

within the Cabinet for traditional conservative views and values. All

said, him going is a criticism of home -- of both the Chancellor and

the Prime Minister. There is a twist of the tale that was reflected in

your interviewer earlier. He did not agree with these cuts. He took his

position in Cabinet seriously. He was tasked with going out and

defending them and then he did it. Then number ten went undermining

him. Anyone faced with that kind of frustration, I told you I did not

believe in it, you made me do it, now you are undervaluing me and try

to make me look as the bad guy. Anyone would be frustrated with

something like that. Just listening to all of the chatter around there's

over the past 24 hours, some are seeing it as a tussle between the

rich and the poor. What to using Thomas? I do not think I would go

that far. It is too simplistic view, the so-called rich who have

benefited from the attacks in relaxations. Business groups are

those who provide more jobs. It is not just money that they are

ditching and putting in their bank accounts, they are partly

responsible for giving a better boost to the economy. So I try to

steer away from that simplistic view which the Labour Party would love to

do. But coming back to Alex's statement, there is a personal one

in that he is not objecting to the way he is being treated. She is not

much in love with the position on Europe. The one that Osborne and

Cameron have been taking. He is a prominent member of the Brexit camp.

He must know that by making this statement at this point, it adds to

the poisonous mix which makes this wreck isn't -- resignations of toxic

and he must have known that despite his personal upsets. There is one

aspect we have not spoken about. This promotes Stephen Crabb. He now

becomes Work and Pensions Secretary, he is on the left of the party. The

cabinet has seen an upgrade for someone who wants us to remain in,

and an exit for someone who wants to leave. He leaves the Welsh portfolio

at a time when we should have a devolution bill for the whole of

Wales. They wanted to introduce that on Saint Davids Day. That seemed to

go nowhere. On his last brief, he seemed not to have delivered on the

main thing he was in post-war, his reward in government as promotion.

But will he be able to stand up to George Osborne? He will have two to

the government line. Which is normally what is expected of Cabinet

members. I would like to go back to the point of Thomas about the whole

issue of the rich versus the poor. This is a point that has been made

not just my Iain Duncan Smith but quite a few Conservative

backbenchers and quite a few of the grassroots to fuel this government,

all the measures and about a particular section of society and

punishing some others. We have seen that with the attempts of the tax

credits. The sham of 2012 when there was the 50p tax rate. If we are

thinking about new cuts to come, maybe there are new cuts, but Regent

should -- reintroduce the 50p tax cut and we would not have to hit any

other people. The slogan for the Conservative Party through all this

is all in it together. Iain Duncan Smith has said he does not see it

that way. I think the longer and larger implications for Brexit are

what this is about. That is in tatters today. Who knows whether

this will undercut the Prime Minister Boz s' arguments are

staying in the EU. I think the whole situation is tenuous at the moment.

The migrant situation is getting more tense. Is it not that we could

have any discussion and bring it back to Brexit? Alex, do you think

it is more the crisis is that the party is going to have to look at

itself, the way that it portrays itself, and the way it does balance

these policies? This is a leadership that is further away from one nation

conservatism, to some respect Iain Duncan Smith stood for. His purpose

in life was to realise welfare rearrangements that he believed in

and was passionate about. The leadership has become more distant

from that because of this resignation. On the Brexit point you

were making, if the leadership had said that the Cabinet and wider

members of the Parliamentary party had to tour the leader's lying, it

would tour the party apart. One point that was mentioned, the

general perception was that this was an issue of rich versus poor. It is

not necessarily the truth. The government has failed to make a case

for why they have introduced tax relief for corporate businesses and

so forth. They have a good reason for doing so, there is not enough

employment coming that is worth taxing it. That is not a fact, that

is a matter of opinion. I was just saying. On that fact a matter of

opinion, I want to throw a statistic in. The bookmakers have cut the odds

of George Osborne becoming leader of the Conservative Party because of

this. So we will just watch that. Boris Johnson must be rubbing his

hands in glee. European Union and Turkish leaders

celebrated a "historic day" after sealing a widely-criticized

pact to send thousands of asylum-seekers back to Turkey -

a deal that will cost millions and require the rapid dispatch

of thousands of experts to Greece to undertake the complicated task

of making the plan a reality. Eunice? It is going to be extremely

difficult. We need to remember that Greece is a bankrupt country, a

country with incredible problems. It has been a huge challenge to process

and integrate the over 1 million refugees that have entered Greece

just in 2015 and it has far more coming through the Greek borders and

through the Greek islands since the beginning of the year. So this is a

massive challenge for the Greek government and I do not know what

kind of logistical support you will need to give. Money to create new

refugee centres and settlements, and people with the resources and skills

to process all the bureaucracy. It is good to be extremely hard to find

birth certificates, all that documentation that proves these

individuals are in fact Syrian refugees, Syrian citizens who needs

support and need to receive the status of refugee. So it is going to

be very difficult and all the European governments have been very

slow at agreeing the releasing of the money. They say it is going to

be quicker this time. It is also the legality and this is a deal that

clearly stretches the humanitarian commitments of the European Union to

its very limits. It is one of the harshest deals on how to deal with

refugees in Europe since the Second World War. And that is hard, it is

hard to beat that record in terms of how badly we handled refugees.

Turkey is not a safe place for refugees. And it is quite shocking

that we are giving free safe passage through Turkish citizens at a time

when the Turkish government is behaving so badly with its own

citizens. You have to look at the political benefits to one of the

embattled of the leaders. That is Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of

Germany. She will say we have a breakthrough year. The numbers of

Syrian refugees who will be allowed to settle properly and legally in

Europe is down to 72,000 which is a pittance. We do not know if that is

good to happen or not. The migrants could find other routes. Via Libya.

We have to secure the AG and seeing part of that world. But Angela

Merkel has led to camp the nerve of Germans, the threat of ever more

millions of refugees has been dealt with and we are down to a manageable

number, never mind how difficult it is to bring that about. Turkey is a

doubtful customer. It might help her along. There is a reason for people

in Germany, when people were asked, would you agree with people living

in the remaining camps? Would you let them open the borders? There is

a growing acceptance of the moral case that Angela Merkel has been

making generally about the need for Europe... She has got thumped in the

elections. I do not know about the growing case of accepting the

position. Where I do agree with you is that it is a classic European

settlement, it is people coming from Turkey, with Greece being affected

the most and it is really about politics in Germany. To that extent

I agree. Younis touched on the fact that people will be able to get into

Europe. Turks do not have control of their borders. -- Eunice. You are

raising a lot of security questions, with allowing people access into the

European Union without documentation. There is this past

the passable -- parcel problem. Angela Merkel is the most powerful

woman in Europe. She has spent a terrible European leader. The

eurozone crisis is still unsolved. We have been passing the parcel on

this one, and we will be passing the parcel on the refugee crisis for

several years to come. When you think about how do millions of

settings, you are talking about old people, women, children, who are

coming to Europe, they are leaving their homes and everything behind,

they are doing perilous journeys. 4000 people died in the seas

drowning. This is not people who do with a light heart, let's go on a

European adventure. It is very serious decision people make. Isis

is a western creation, it has been very much helped by Western

interventions in Iraq and elsewhere the West, Europe has a

responsibility to help those refugees, to settle and find self

haven. Angela Merkel is right to say, you must help and help solve

this. Basically she slightly follows your argument. This is a merger or

-- moral challenge. When you get this kind of migration, you have to

look at what caused it. There is economic migration for which Angela

Merkel has to take responsibility. She says, one, come all. Stage two

was where did all these people come from? Stage three was that everyone

was going to have to pay for this. It is a lesson learned in the hard

way. The whole migrant issue has been resolved. But I the Greeks

going to pay for it? And the Italians. Everyone is going to pay

for it in the end. What about paying for it in terms of conscience? You

spoke about this in previous situations, Eunice. Most people

don't care because if politicians are reacting like this, most people

do not care, it is not their problem, it is something that

happens far away. And those who do care, and there has been amazing

actions from society, I hope they will put at pressure on their

governments. The situation in Cali is a shame and conscience. Everyone

has to think very hardly about those responsibilities. Greg, how do you

think history will judge us? I think history will say, when the chips

were down, Europe could not do anything effective and I think it is

a great shame. This is the largest movement of people in my lifetime

and nobody has stood up with a decent idea and I respect Angela

Merkel for at least trying to explain this some ideals and it did

blow up in face. And the whole system is in disarray. And I think

this damages the idea. I did some man in the street staff in the past

few weeks, all of the Brits I spoke to have said I will vote to leave

the EU if it will solve the immigration problem for the UK. One

of the reasons it is not just the fault of politicians, people

themselves are conflicted to how to react. Alex rightly pointed out that

Angela Merkel has been affected in local elections.

While the majority of people are on the other side, they are conflicted

like the politicians are as to how to deal with this unexpected issue.

A final thought? Europe as a whole 28 cannot come together on this.

Thank you for your thoughts on this. The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls

on seemingly sweeping up everything And what of those still challenging

- does Ohio Governor John Kasich have what it takes

to take on the Donald? Greg? I think in terms of the

Republican nomination, the Donald is unstoppable at this point. We have

seen a concerted effort by the Republican leaders in the last ten

days to come up of a way to stop him and derail him and set up some sort

of open convention. I do not think it is going to fly. I think he is

good to have delegates. The whole primary system has evolved and

changed and no voters do have their say and do play the primary rule in

choosing the nominee. They are going for drop. It is true as numbers do

not pass the 50% mark. Something weird could happen. But the idea

that the Republican body can stop is wrong. What you think might happen?

An electoral disaster and a nominee who is openly calling for some

policies that would defy the Constitution. So they are very, very

concerned but they do not have the power structure any more to stop it.

If he were to become president, the rest of the world watching with

what? Their behaviour is to some extent curtailed by the laws in the

Constitution. I do not think any one man could wreck one of the greatest

countries of the world. Nevertheless, I view a Trump

presidency with some this concern. The nomination process in the United

States on both sides as demonstrated the weakness of the so-called

establishment. On the Republican side it was obvious. 14 candidates

going in different directions, no one could control it. When they all

decided they needed to stop Eunice, they couldn't do it. Hillary, a

deeply flawed candidate, a lot tied to her husband and maybe indicted in

the course of her candidacy here because of e-mail scandal. They had

a better candidate, not just tucked away somewhere, a sitting vice

president who you may say, Joe why do not -- why don't choose go for

this campaign question mark the couldn't stop Bernie Sanders from

running and posing serious challenges to Hillary Clinton. That

has changed radically. This was a series of reforms in the 60s that

was popular at the time because it was seen to give power to the people

so that in the 70s you got the Democrats elected. The system has

changed so that the party establishment is neutered at this

moment. They have no power at all. Do you think it reflects the lack of

candidates? You have to have strong candidates. What does it say about

the political system for those coming through? What it says is that

the political party are really out of touch with the normal voter

because they did not see this coming. Everyone thought that Donald

Trump was a joke so no one talk seriously. And now it looks as if he

is good to get the Republican nomination. So perhaps if the

leaderships, of the different political parties, spend more time

trying to understand what the ordinary voter thinks and wants,

what other concerns. What they were not thinking was that the global

financial crisis happened a long time ago and there has been some

economic growth. We have had eight years distance from that global

financial crisis. People are taking stock of what has happened to their

lives. What we are seeing in America is a lot of anger. People are very

angry with their politicians, corporate leaders, the general state

of the economy. They are saying, why cannot my children go to university

question mark why do my children leave so much debt? Why can they not

get proper jobs? Why are we dying, this is the problem of white males

in America, why are the dying younger than they were 2030 years

ago? These are big social and political problems that for the

moment, for the past decades, the two main parties have decided to

ignore. 20, -- 20, 30 years ago. The establishment of parties and figures

did not seem to rise to the challenge eight years ago when the

financial crisis occurred. We still make them responsible for having

caused the crisis in the first place. Well this may have been eight

years ago, it is still with us all the time. The U -- economic problems

in the UK are still affected by the problem eight years ago. Do we get

the politicians we deserve? Or the politicians we vote for? Thank you

for taking part in the discussion today.

That's it for Dateline London for this week -

we're back next week at the same time.

You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter

A distinct absence of colour in the skies above the UK today, but we

have found a