08/10/2016 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

Theresa May talks of capturing the centre ground in Britain

The UN envoy on Syria wants to escort Al-Qaeda linked

fighters out of Aleppo while

Antonio Guterres, the former Portuguese Prime Minister,

looks set to become the

My guests today are Eunice Goes, who is a Portuguese writer.

Jef McAllister, who is an American writer and broadcaster.

And Steve Richards, who is a British political commentator.

Good to see you. Let's start in Britain.

On the right of British politics the party which created

the climate for Brexit, Ukip, has fallen into chaos

while the Prime Minister Theresa May has moved to

out-Ukip Ukip by promising a tough line on European Union negotiations,

immigration controls and a better deal for those

who feel let down by the

And how does any of that square with her intention

of securing the middle ground of British politics?

She has to weak opponents, the Labour Party and Ukip in trouble,

she seems to want to take over both? I thought it was a very particular

-- politically astute performance from Theresa May at her party

conference. Almost everyone in the UK, like in many parts of the world,

claim to be on the centre ground. It seems to me it is a meaningless

term, increasingly meaningless in the fractious, factual eyes to

politics we have everywhere, not just the UK. But what she did

cleverly, she was known as a Remain figure, albeit a reluctant Remainer

in the referendum campaign. She had to convince her party that she would

deliver breakfast, and she certainly did that. They were ecstatic with

excitement at her Brexit promises. And also try to frame a wider

message about her politics. She talked in a way that Tony Blair and

Gordon Brown never did about the power of government. I thought that

was effective. But Brexit looms, and talking to people in that conference

over the last few days and others, it is clear to me that it will be a

complete nightmare. I think the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is

extremely worried about when she triggers article 50, what that will

do to the pound. Turbulence and fluctuations are the kind of words

she is using. She gave one opening speech at the Conference where she

stated, friendly, the obvious on breakfast -- Brexit, and the pound

fell. Some people think that Britain dropped from being the fifth biggest

economy to the sixth jeering the course of that speech. And there was

nothing rather later and all alarming. In this big reform bill

she announced was a logistic inevitability, which she cleverly

turned into a sign of political momentum. That was the easy bit and

it is already difficult, and I think it will become more so. In terms of

political choreography, it was brilliant and got her through the

week. There was one of the standout bit

for many people in the week, Marc, which was the Home Secretary, Amber

Rudd, saying that foreign firms will have to tellers who their foreign

workers. Apparently at the LSE some academics have been told that if you

were foreign-born you cannot work advising the Government on Brexit.

If Theresa May goes on and on to say she is not racist or xenophobic, her

ministers are. Everyone knows it is not right that the foreigners are

taking British jobs, they take them because the British are not able to

take them. So by attacking and creating a climate of xenophobia and

racism she antagonises the people she needs to get a clean Brexit,

which is France and Germany. Merkel this week said that Britain will be

harshly treated, as did Hollande, if this climate continues. And it puts

people who have lived here a long time, Europeans like me, into real

discomfort to live in a country which was known for fair play,

courtesy and tolerance, which is now becoming a nasty country with the

nasty party back. The nasty party is creating a really

nasty atmosphere across the country, rising racist and xenophobic attacks

across the country, it is really worrying. And some figures in the

Labour Party say that it is perfectly reasonable to be worried

about immigration. Actually, it is not natural to be worried about

immigration and blame immigration and migrants for all sorts of

problems. Most countries are worried, the Greeks and the German

Starc but it is the role of responsible parties like the

Conservative Party and the Labour Party and some other parties to talk

responsibly. We know where this ends. This has been going on for ten

years, every time they talk high on immigration, they just move the tone

a few notches up. Where do we want to end up? Europe in the 1930s? Do

we need to wear armbands or badges saying we migrant citizens working

in the UK? It is really, really worrying. The comments of Amber Rudd

RA license for really racist behaviour. Steve sees this as within

the narrow frames of watching us to do within her party, good politics,

but maybe not good statesmanship? It gets her through the night, in a

way. It might, you know, work out better. I think it was very clever,

she is the new face, she has an appeal to the shires, she seems

reasonable. She is playing the Sanders/ Trump card, populism on the

spending, we will now spend on social programmes again, which gets

a different opinion from the Labour and the Conservative voters. It

might buy her some time with the choppy Brexit waters. But I don't

think they had any idea how they will get through Brexit. It is a

mess, all the incentives for Europe are to be harsh and say no,

otherwise the European project folder part if Britain gets a

special deal. Britain needs Europe much more than Europe needs Britain.

3% of EU GDP is exported to Britain, 12% of UK GDP is exported to Europe.

This myth that you can easily walk away with what you want without

having to give something back is just not true. Once the negotiation

starts, Europe will have most of the cards, at the moment I think the UK

Government thinks it will. Some people were saying that the pound

will continue to go down. Who knows? To make one point and immigration,

one of the problem she has, and people like the Home Secretary,

Amber Rudd, I think she is quite liberal figure, privately. But the

referendum happens and they can't ignore it. There is no doubt that

immigration was one of the issues in that referendum campaign. I think

Theresa May is not that devious a figure, although she played some

clever games last week, I think. But I think she has a cheetah. Is that

she has to deliver the referendum, there is no doubt that one of the

issues was immigration. If that means we are out of the single

market, which it will... What I find interesting, of course,

immigration means out of the single market, out of the single market

means the pound and customs problem at all that. The lack of preparation

of the British Government is crass. The Foreign Secretary has said, oh,

I will help Turkey to be into the EU. What does that mean? Britain is

out. What leverage would he have too help Turkey? The Europeans are much

more mature. Do they provoke xenophobic acts against the British

working in Europe for living in Europe? Jaguars sales are down,

apparently, in Europe, because nobody wants to buy British cars any

more. It is not xenophobia, that is a reasonable economic choice. It is

interesting. I think there will be that pulling apart. From my point of

view, I am an American living in this country, I have lived here for

a long time. I like the sense of Britain as an open country where I

believe that migration has been beneficial to the economy. So this

pains me. There is another wider point, which is internal. For now,

her speech was very astute and captured not the centre ground, but

the mood of the country. And also an economic policy, thinking already

about the prospects of Brexit. But will the party support her. Those

MPs that created a lot of trouble for David Cameron when he tried to

be a compassionate conservative, what do they say about taxation? Mrs

May is a great supporter of taxation, she says it is a sign of

civilisation. The state having a role, what will they say? When they

start to realise what it means they will rebel. The Conservative Party

is the most indisciplined and rebellious party in Westminster

parliament. And that would be saying something!

This programme would be a slightly poorer place if we did not allow

people who are not British citizens to take part! It would just be him

and me! Sounds like quite a good idea! I will leave now!

The person in line to become the United Nations

next Secretary-General is the former Portuguese Prime

And how can the United Nations - or any organisation -

rise to the 21st century challenges of Syria, Iraq, Libya,

First of all, who is he? God he is a socialist, Catholic, a former Prime

Minister of Portugal, he was the Prime Minister who took Portugal to

the single currency. But ten years he was the UN High Commissioner for

refugees. Where he has done a good job, according to voluntary

organisations, all the NGOs, in making the case for support for

refugees. That is who he is. He is also very outspoken. He is his own

man, he will not be bossed by anyone. I think he would be eight

Mendis UN Secretary-General. It is a tremendous job, but what a basket of

problems. Aleppo, Syria, the UN talking about perhaps is courting

Al-Qaeda linked fighters out of Aleppo etc. We had to think about

what is the job of the UN Secretary-General. It is not God, it

does not have power. But it will have the ability to agenda setter

problems, it will have the ability to get countries to address certain

issues. Guterres has previously told the Americans they have to do more

about refugees, to support some countries to acquire independence.

He is the outspoken statesman that the UN needs. Somebody who

campaigned the refugees, human rights, poverty and inequality. I

think he has the ability and the profile to put the UN again in the

centre stage as an important actor in the world stage. It is then up

for the big powers of the Security Council to do their jobs and to be

less obstructive. But I think he will do as much as he can to point

them in that direction. Could he get the Americans and the Russians to

kiss and make up after the terrible things going on, including the

allegations of hacking directed at the Russians now?

It is very difficult to see. This is the fundamental structural problem

of the UN building by Franklin Roosevelt and company. Unless the

security council members really want to do business together, the UN

obviously can't find out a way to make them do it. In the early

Clinton era, when Russia seemed like it wanted to join the world system

in a constructive way, and China, you could see the UN began to get

momentum. But Iraq, terrorism and everything else has made this all

much, much worse. I don't see anything for Putin to give up his

current spoiler role. He will not be a big power in the old Soviet Union

sense, but he is riding high at home because it looks like he is doing

well in Syria, he gets advantage by racking up elections in Ukraine and

the Balkan states. Now the US, too. I would say that the choice the

Americans made in a month is probably more important for weather

world order games or losers than the selection of the UN

Secretary-General. One hopes it will come out, I hope, with Hillary

Clinton, who believes in international institutions,

development and cooperating with people. Trump is expressing this

site Christ where we retreat into ourselves, all trade deals are bad.

-- Trump is going into this zeitgeist. Donald Trump is not the

only one saying that international institutions are suspect, the EU,

the UN, the World Bank, the IMF are all going through difficult times,

as is globalisation. The problem of the UN, it is a 1945

Cold War institution. The Security Council is blocking everything.

It is two versus three. Since then is Europe is at a disadvantage. The

solution is not therefore Syria. -- sometimes Europe is at a

disadvantage. The solution for Syria is the new American administration.

The weak point of Putin is the economy, the Russian economy is

doing badly. The only thing outside of the UN is for Europe to

strengthen its sanctions. And not buy the gas? That is the question! A

final word on this? Clearly the power lies in the presidential

election in the United States, not been UN. -- not the UN. That agenda

setting without power is part of the mix at the moment. The US president

under Obama found no way through in Syria. He sounds great, let's hope

he can make some kind of contribution in an otherwise

nightmarish situation. Steve has brilliantly linked this into the

next item. How far do his latest observations

about women change the US presidential campaign when similar

comments in the past seem In some cases he has been Teflon

Trump, whatever your taste, people who like him I can, people who don't

like him don't like him. Correct. Have I summed up the American

presidential election? Very good. But there are swing voters, people

who have not made up their mind, unbelievably, somehow, at this late

stage. It is not just the sexism, it is the crassness and Egypt is of the

comments. I can do anything I want with them because I a star, talking

about grabbing women in their private parts and how they love it.

Urgh. A Trump support on the radio said, we knew he was a womaniser, it

is ten years ago, do we care? Temperamentally, he is not fit. That

is very interesting. One of the interesting things about this

campaign is talking about policies, we can do it, but temperament often

gets through to viewers on television, which is how many of us

make up our minds. The last debate with Hillary and Trump did, I think,

establish. He did not have much to say, he is not a reader, here is not

one for policies. She got under his skin. She kept bothering him with

obvious softballs that he could not resist. Whether this next debate on

Sunday, where it is a town hall meeting and he has to talk to voters

asking strange questions, it requires a kind of maturity and

gravitas, that is what has worked in the past, a certain ability to

connect. You had to be able to take blows and keep moving. I think it

favours her rather than him. He says he will attack about Bill Clinton

and the sex life and how Hillary has been a gym and as a neighbour of

attacks on women to her husband. I think people will be pretty sick of

it. Eunice? This antiestablishment, anti-elite feeling... He said what

he truly believes and feels, he is one like us. And plenty of people

will see themselves in Donald Trump, unfortunately. Let's hope that some

of those floating voters were truly appalled by these comments, so that

he was not fit for the office. But it is probably just polarising

opinion. Those that are with him applaud him, those against him were

disgusted. He said these comments do not reflect who I am. Of course they

do. OK. I agree with what everyone has said, but the problem is that we

have been completely surprised by the result Brexit, the result of

Columbia. This presidential election is still very open. His supporters,

it will not make any difference. Let's hope it will make a difference

on the floating voters. We need a strong president at a time of a

particularly difficult situation and lots of problems. It would not be a

surprise if he were to pole in reality better than the opinion

polls. Because the opinion polls are ridiculed in every country. The

opinion polls in France are not even taken seriously. No one listen to

them. They have shown their ineffectiveness in every election,

particularly a referendum. The very voters Mr Trump might appeal to,

particularly those thinking of leaning towards, might not want to

say that to a stranger? Marine Le Pen is 28% in the polls. I have

never yet met a Frenchman who would vote better, but she is 20% the

polls. If any serious Cabinet member who was 59 years old when he said

it, not a 14-year-old boy, 59 years old, not that it would be right a

14-year-old boy saying it, actually, but it would be the end. It would.

Like you, I would not be surprised if anything happens now after the

recent months in terms of elections. But I can't see up the very least

how this helps him. You would have thought that amongst floating

voters, perhaps amongst his core support, good old Donald, this is

what we like. But surely those floating voters who have not come

over to him yet will not think, wow, this is exactly what we are looking

for? I can see the mental process of a floating voter which turns to him

on the basis of anything that has happened since that first televised

debate. In other words, in a close race it seems that in the last

couple of weeks the momentum, as far as it could be measured, has gone

away from him, and this will contribute to it. But I preface that

would say nothing is prices me any more. I am interested in the

constitutional mechanics. We have seen the house Speaker, and most

powerful Republican in the country, basically distancing himself, this

inviting Mr Trump from something this weekend. We have seen another

Republican from the west of the United States saying, I cannot

endorse him. Do you think that the party would like to somehow get rid

of him and not have him? Is there any mechanism for that happening, or

for him to quit? He can quit, but I can't and so what happens at this

stage. The Republican National committee has to meet and find a

replacement candidate, but whether that means that it is a state

process to get on a ballot, whether it means you can automatically

parachute in any Republican, I don't think so. I don't think they want to

get rid of him. They have made their bed, they have done that with him

since the beginning. He has done unbelievable, outrageous things for

a huge amount of time. He has said things no American politician has

ever got away with saying. He is racist, he says a judge born in this

country is Mexican because he is against him in a court case, you

call to the assassination of Hillary Clinton. But the Republicans have

made their peace and will continue to. Some people might say it is

terrible, but they will not pull him. Aside from this crass thing, we

should not forget that Trump is also the result of this anger of the

impoverished middle class after the financial crisis, globalisation,

with the jobs are leaving. We have to take that into account. Trump is

a result of the Tea Party movement and a big shift to the right of the

party. The big line-up of Republican candidates, one slightly more to the

left of Trump than the other. They are extremely right-wing. He is

one-of-a-kind, but not so terribly different. He is responsive to a

certain climate created by globalisation and the fear of it,

the fear of foreigners... So was Bernie Sanders. It is all part of a

pattern, post-2000 and eight. We had to take into account in some thing

has to be done... That Hillary Clinton is seen as the inside

candidate, 25 years in Washington or whatever. Every single thing that

wouldn't past behaviour be seen as a plus, experience, I have done this

job and that, it is now a big negative to some people. Like with

Brexit, all the former and existing Prime Minister is backed Brexit,

they were thinking of having a rally with all of them, which in 1975 when

there was a European referendum would have helped the pro-case, but

they decided to scrap it because they thought it would be so

counter-productive, because they were the insiders. As long as

politics is juxtaposed between insiders and outsiders, it is in a

very dangerous place. Insiders means elective politicians. We are moving

towards an anti-democratic culture, where to be seen to be on the

outside is seen as an asset, the non-elected challenger. Where

politicians fight each other, like they did in the European Parliament,

two Ukip MEPs, that is the type of anti-elite politics that we will get

if this continues. We have about 30 seconds left. You do a one-man

comedy show, I don't think you can compete, to be quite honest, with

the reality? You just convey Weighell at it, that is enough to

keep you in the theatre for eight hours! -- you just convey we are

literally. They all can't wait for no. On that happy note I would like

to thank the guests and the three foreign contributors.

You can comment on the programme on Twitter and engage

We are back next week at the same time.

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