04/03/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

Is the United Kingdom's only land border with the Republic of Ireland

And Donald Trump says the US economy is booming,

but what about those contacts with Russia?

My guests today are Brian O'Connell, who is an Irish

Eunice Goes, who is a Portuguese author and journalist.

Adam Raphael who is a British political commentator.

Brexit first and the House of Lords is very exercised about EU

residents in Britain and trying to make sure they continue

Is this a bit of humanitarian good sense or an attempt to throw

a spanner in the works of the government's Brexit plans?

There are quite a lot of spammers that lie ahead. You see this as

being that or is it trying to do something for people who are

resident here? The government has made it quite clear that although

this is a negotiating point, people who are already here are going to

stay here. My own view is that the Lords would be much better advised

to concentrate on the real issue which is Parliamentary consent to

whatever final deal berries than this particular point. I personally

am not concerned about this. I can understand people who are here in

this country, 3 million or whatever, who are anxious about their future

would like it resolved. But the Europeans have made it clear they

will not do anything until after Brexit

negotiations begin. That will be the first item on the agenda, so I do

not think it is a substantial issue. I do regard the Parliamentary

approval of whatever deal there is as crucial. We can discuss that in a

minute because that will be coming up this week, but you could be

thrown out. There have been 28% of applications for permanent residence

which have been rejected by the Home Office. Some of the dispositions to

require permanent residence are in contravention of single market

rules. For as long as Britain is a member of the EU, it needs to comply

with those rules. There is the requirement of comprehensive health

insurance for those citizens not in work or who asked students, but this

is a contravention of rules and this is creating panic and anxiety for

the over 3 million EU citizens who live, work and have made their lives

in the UK. It is an urgent matter and it has also affected the lives

of British people who are living in EU countries. I do not know about

Portugal, but I know in Spain those British people who live there tend

to be older and are often retired, whereas Spanish people in this

country tend to be younger people looking for work. Is that the same

in Portugal? Yes. Our British people in Portugal being seen as a drain on

the health service in particular? There will be for sure those who use

more the health care service. They have been given a wonderful tax

deal. In a way this is an issue and I am interested in what you are

saying, but in a sense it is a very short-term issue because it will be

resolved soon as Brexit is declared. The noises coming from the

government are not extremely reassuring. I thought the exit bill

was going to be the first thing on the agenda. This is the point. It

could be another year or so before the fate of EU nationals living in

Britain is even touched on. Because of this different relationship with

Ireland it does not matter for you, does it? This is the problem, we do

not know. As far as I am aware, because of the Common travel area

and all kinds of legislative stuff that support that architecture

between the two Islands, as far as I am aware it does not apply to Irish

people. It is all other EU nationals except Irish people. But it is the

doubt. If you come from the EU and doubt. If you come from the EU and

you have got children here. Yes, it is the doubt, there are mothers,

fathers, sons and daughters and people who work in the NHS that

Brexit wants to bolster and every other thing. Any uncertainty is bad

for business and it is being used as a bargaining chip, despite the fact

Liz Truss will not say it. Adam is right in a way that the really big

point is whether the House of commons has a safe or not, or what

kind of say, that is the big thing, but this is still quite important.

On Tuesday they will be considering that in the House of Lords and we

will see what comes of that. But I agree we have done reporting on

companies that employ EU migrants and there are a lot of people who

feel very insecure and it is affecting their ability to recruit

and hire people, particularly in the agricultural sector. The

government's position on this is bizarre. They are saying we cannot

guarantee the rights of EU nationals to preserve our negotiating

position, but do not worry, we will sort it out. That is not very good

for people who are living here or married to Brits. I think the Lords'

position on it may give cover to some of the Tory rebels to support

that measure. It is unclear. The House of Lords may say that the

House of commons should have a bigger say in what goes ahead. That

is odd as well, isn't it? The fact is the House of Lords knows

perfectly well it can only push things so far and then whatever

ping-pong develops between the two houses, in the end the House of

commons will decide. I would be very surprised if the Tory rebels voted

in favour of a House of Lords amendment in this case. In the end

of the House of Lords will yield to this particular issue. But the real

issue, I am sorry, is Parliamentary voting and on that the vote is much

more in doubt. As a former political correspondents of many years

standing, what do you make of Labour's position on this? Oh! I

wish you had not asked. Labour has not got a position, it does not know

which way it is going, left, right or centre. Jeremy Corbyn is very

hostile to Europe generally. His party is totally split, his voters

are totally split. Frankly, despite Keir Starmer are being rather good

for Labour, really know one is paying any attention to what they

say because they just do not have a clearly thought out position.

The United Kingdom has one land border with another country,

the Irish Republic, and for decades that has been a flashpoint

with killings and bombings along the rural border lands.

This week in a degree of political crisis Northern Ireland voters have

been electing members of the Stormont Assembly in Belfast.

How shaky is devolved government in Northern Ireland?

And where would Brexit leave the island of Ireland?

We know Sinn Fein has done very well and the DUP are still the largest

party, but it is neck and neck. Where do you see this going? Can

there be a new Stormont devolved assembly or direct rule from London

which we have not seen for years? Under the rules the parties have

about three weeks. There is a discretionary thing the British

Government has where they can extend that if they need to. They have

three weeks or so to form a government. I think personally, and

it is only personal, that the reasons why Sinn Fein brought the

executive down in the first place, we do not need to go into the

details, but what has happened is Sinn Fein now has a shopping list

and at the top of it is a piece of legislation that they want to put

through, which puts the Irish language on a par with English in

governmental institutions in Northern Ireland. It is a throwback

to the St Andrews agreement in 2006. Arlene Foster, the leader of the

DUP, the former First Minister, said this is like feeding the crocodile.

If you give them something, they want more and more will stop we are

not going to do it. It is unlikely she will do it now, following the

election, she would not do it beforehand in the first place. As

Gerry Adams said in reply to the crocodile thing, see you later,

alligator. If you do not feed the crocodile, you get 100 crocodiles!

But do you see this because of the demographic changes in Northern

Ireland as yet another stepping stone towards potentially a united

Ireland? I am not sure it is a stepping stone. There is a mechanism

for a border poll which Sinn Fein wanted triggered after the EU

referendum result. It is at the discretion of the Secretary of State

for Northern Ireland, the British Government said no, we are not going

to do that now. It is unlikely they will do it in the foreseeable

future, but I think there is a fairly strong chance that they will

reintroduce direct rule if they cannot reach agreement in a few

weeks. They could also have another election. Which means effectively

they will be run by Conservative ministers. Yes, but the important

part of this is that just as the article 15 negotiations begin, there

is no elected, democratic voice in Northern Ireland discussing the

issue that you mentioned at the beginning of the border. This is

very complicated, but it is also about the future of the United

Kingdom. Scotland is contemplating another independence referendum and

we have the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom saying it is a top

priority keeping the UK together. It is a challenge for the UK

constitutional setup and Brexit's effect on Northern Ireland would be

hard in any case, but with an unstable government it is even

harder. They are very dependent on EU agricultural subsidies, there are

a lot of EU exports from Northern Ireland that are at risk. Now people

have talked about they could institute a soft border along the

lines of Norway and Sweden. It is not Norway and Sweden. Yes, they are

not Norway and Sweden, it is a different situation. How do you see

this? The Irish Republic has been a strong supporter of the EU, it is in

the EU. It has all worked so far in recent years to bring peace. It has

and the Irish government was hoping to convince Theresa May to choose a

soft Brexit path. Clearly it has been unsuccessful because Theresa

May is going for a hard Brexit and that will have consequences for

Northern Ireland. But seriously for Northern Ireland what we are going

to see, if there is no agreement in three weeks, or even the four weeks

of negotiation, there will be flash points if there is going to be

direct rule from London. Sinn Fein already said they do not see the

current British Government as a distant, as having a neutral voice,

because it has relied on the support of the DUP in the Westminster

Parliament. This is the problem, Theresa May wants to be the Prime

Minister of the United Kingdom, but as many other Prime Minister 's,

they tend to neglect the Celtic Borders. Occasionally there are

events and problems and they become quite serious. Where do you see this

going? Scotland is also part of this mix. There is something like 25

million cross-border movements between North and South in Ireland.

There is no way in which you could reinstate that border meaningfully.

Frankly, both the European Union and the British Government, and indeed

Ireland, is faced by a very difficult problem of how somehow

there has to be a fudge on this and an open border of some kind. If

there are border controls, they will be in Liverpool with the old status

of MI5 and watching people. That will go down well. The

practicalities are nightmare and I do not see an easy answer to it and

I think Theresa May is fudging it at the moment and pretending it does

not exist. You know that words are really important in covering

Northern Ireland. When Theresa May said we want as frictionless border

as possible, you have to ask what is a frictionless border, a hard

border, a soft border? Let's assume, as is looking increasingly likely,

there is a hard Brexit, which means Britain is out of the single market

and the customs union, relying on world Trade Organisation rules

instead of some transitionary deal that they may have done after

Article 50. Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland are like that in

terms of exports, in terms of business, cultural links and

everything. You mentioned agriculture, dairy for example, the

milk goes over and back across the border. The milk that goes into our

bottle of Bailey's, a former executive of Diageo said to me that

milk goes over and across the border five times before it ends up in the

bottle after pasteurisation. If you are outside the European customs

union you have to check all this stuff and you cannot put up a border

post because it will be a target. Even if you put a little camera on a

big poll, anyone in Sinn Fein would tell you that will be a target as

well. There is no way at the end of two years it will be final. There

will be a long period of interim arrangements. I do not know anyone

who peers into this complete might can come up with an answer, they

will be very clever. If somebody found that there was a frictionless

border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and people who

came into the Irish Republic from Poland Portugal could then travel to

Northern Ireland and get on the boat to go Liverpool or Stranraer, they

might be quite cross. Yes. They would say, what is that doing about

migration? It is difficult to see how any of this is going to work. So

many other things regarding Brexit and Northern Ireland, it is very

difficult to see how it will work, it will be a fudge. I believe the

period of negotiation will go further than two years. European

Union will have to agree to extend the period of negotiation because I

cannot see an two years that all the negotiations will be completed. A

final thought on Scotland. The Prime Minister has been in Scotland this

week and she has made it clear she wants to keep the UK together. There

is a lot of pressure on the First Minister of Scotland to hold another

referendum which she may win or lose. How do you see that? You could

see the political case for Nicola Sturgeon going ahead for a

referendum as quite strong, the economic case more difficult. She

may be forced into a referendum. Frankly, the odds of her winning

this time are no better this time and possibly worse, given the

economic consequences for Scotland. That argument will be run very hard.

I think she might try and avoid it. But Scottish politics may drive her

into it. She is playing a very difficult game very well. She is

very clever and I've rather good political leader, but she is not in

an easy situation. I would not like to be in her position deciding

whether to have a referendum or not. How United is the United Kingdom?

Evolution has created in many ways more of a sense of Scottish

identity. You asked about Northern Ireland a minute ago and border

polls and so on. I agree that on Scotland it is very difficult and I

do not think the numbers add up at the moment. The economic argument is

worse now than it was in 2014 because of Brexit. If Nicola

Sturgeon wants to call another referendum, she is best to wait

until the Article 50 issue is sorted out and do it on whatever economic

circumstances prevailed then. But referendums are not easy and they do

not produce the right result. In Ireland everybody knows in Lisburn

they repeated the process and they got a different answer. Does this

not give more justification for Sinn Fein to call a referendum? Sinn Fein

will continue to call for a border poll, but it is actually the gift of

the British Government. Sinn Fein cannot trigger it themselves. They

will certainly call for another referendum, but I suspect that if I

had to put money on it that Scotland will be out of the UK

before Northern Ireland. Two bits of good news

for Donald Trump. His speech to Congress went down

well this week and the promise of a very un-conservative Keynesian

public spending boom But not so good news: His choice

for Attorney General, the man in charge of the Justice Department

and hence of the FBI, has had It is quite a big story. It is a

huge story. We saw his speech to Congress, he was in control from the

teleprompter, but within 24 hours you had this scandal with Jeff

Sessions erupting and the chaos and the chaos of the troubled presidency

resumed. It is a big deal. It is a big deal that he has recused himself

from any investigation into camp's links with Russia during the

campaign. But broadly speaking this Russia thing is not going away. If

you look at happened with Mike Flynn, the national security

adviser, it took several stories and several leaks before he finally went

and we understood what really happened with his conversations with

the Russian ambassador. What is bizarre is that Jeff Sessions

basically lied, or did not remember under oath during his cynic

confirmation hearing about whether or not he had had any contact with

the Russians during the campaign. He was one of the first senators to

come out in support of Donald Trump. He was viewed as a Donald Trump 's

so why he would not press the pause button when he got overtures from

the Russian ambassador in July when he met him is curious. When he did

not admit that under oath is very bizarre. That is probably more of a

problem and what they discussed. If you have got nothing to hide, if you

are talking about a recipe for a soup or something, you would say you

had a couple of conversations and there was no problem. If you do not

say, people will find that later. Why did you not mention it? He has

raised a lot of suspicions across the party and the press. If we are

going to get any answers, it remains to be seen. This information might

be very difficult to find. But going back to the initial point, it is

incredible we are celebrating the fact that the President's first

address to Congress was without accident, he could be the

teleprompter without shouting or screaming or sounding divisive.

Although his speech was not as presidential as it could have been.

As for his plans for America, it is also vague and he is worrying a lot

of people. There is a lack of clarity in the way that the

president sees his presidential role and how he operates and works with

other democratic institutions in the United States. His economic plan,

his so-called Keynesian economic plan, I would not go so far as

calling it that, it is open to debate whether it will happen or

not. The wisdom in Washington is the president proposes and Congress

disposes, so he cannot spend any money anyway and it is a matter for

Congress. Some might say let's spent a lot of money that we never wanted

to spend. Cracks will begin to emerge. Whatever Donald Trump is,

and it is difficult to see what he is, he is not a Republican in my

view and he is not a conservative. These divisions with the Republican

Congress and the Senate will emerge. He is directly opposed to many of

the leading Republicans in Congress. The other thing which is odd is that

he has a rust belt constituency, which is the bulk of his support, to

honour his commitments to. If you give the majority of your tax cuts

to the very richest 1% of Americans, there is no way he will bring back

steel or coal or whatever, even if he wanted to, he could not do it. So

there is real trouble ahead in Congress for him and also with his

key constituencies. I think the infrastructure spending is something

he does have bipartisan support for. The Democrats were trying to get

that through with Barack Obama and they were thwarted. What I am

interested to see and watch is whether or not they get some sort of

infrastructure plan in place and they have it targeted towards some

of those kiss dates were Donald Trump one, the rust belt states.

There is not going to be real labour force, this will go to big contracts

and big companies. It could create employment, but he has got to move

fast if he wants that to take effect. He is not able to do it

because of everything else, all the clutter. He did well with the

congressional speech, the markets rose and everything else, and

suddenly within 24 hours this happens because he has got all this

clutter around what he is trying to do and it is back to chaos as usual.

I do not understand why Jeff Sessions did not tell the truth. I

do not understand that, it is a simple thing, he had nothing to

hide. Did you meet the ambassador? Yes. And he is the Attorney General,

that is the key point. He is the chief law officer in the country and

here is the man who wanted President Clinton done for perjury in 1999

when he was impeached. John Dean of Watergate fame was tweeting this

week essentially it is the cover-up which gets you in the end, trust me,

I know about this. Whatever they discussed with the Russians it is

the fact that it does not seem to be in their own interests to come out

and just tell us what they discussed. That is why people keep

digging, the American press in particular. Exactly and we do not

know the full extent of the Donald Trump campaign supporters and

associates and their contact with the Russians. A lot more will come

out on this, I guarantee. A lot more will come out

on this, I guarantee. That's it for Dateline

London this week. You can comment on the programme

on Twitter @gavinesler We're back next week

at the same time. Good morning. We have got a mixed

bag of whether for you as we head through to the remainder of the

weekend with everything thrown in. There will be sunshine and heavy

showers. This was the view taken by one of our weather Watchers in Port