18/03/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

Could Theresa May be the prime minister who takes

the United Kingdom out of the European Union -

and unwittingly helps to break up the United Kingdom itself?

And six years of civil war in Syria - is there an end to this?

Mustapha Karkouti who is a Syrian writer,

in our Glasgow studio Kevin McKenna of the Guardian and The Herald,

Annalisa Piras who is an Italian journalist and film maker,

In a democracy people have the right to choose whether to leave a union

where the government seems remote and does not reflect

That was at the core of the argument against

the European Union and for Brexit - now it is the same argument

being used by nationalists in Scotland calling

Will Theresa May go down in history as the prime minister

Kevin, why did Nicola Sturgeon decide to call for a second

referendum? It is quite whiskey isn't it? Any decision to call for a

referendum carries a degree of risk. -- risky. This isn't just about

taking Scotland in three Europe away from the UK. I think the First

Minister lots patients with knocking consistently on Theresa May 's door

looking for Scotland's interest to be represented in any future Brexit

negotiations and having the door was slammed on her face. The First

Minister talked about the continuous intransigence of the UK Government

since June 23 last year. This is because Scotland voted 62% to 30% to

remain in Europe. The second thing I think that has alarmed the First

Minister and many other people in Scotland is the sense of chaos that

seems to have enveloped the UK Government with regard to Brexit.

Every week or so we have another Brexit minister spokesman being

dredged up. Seeing that we don't know how this will work out. There's

this disdainful attitude that some of these ministers seem to show for

the former European partners which makes one believe that the

negotiations are not going to be very beneficial for the UK. Scotland

will be left out and have to take whatever the UK and London decides

for it. And I think that Nicola Sturgeon said that we need to have a

voice ear and the only way we can have a voice is a referendum and to

seek our own relationship with Europe. She feels she has a mandate

because was an overwhelming victory for the SNP both in the UK election

the Scottish election. Let's be bringing Iain Martin. Kevin touches

on the resentment that many Scots feel that this is such an important

decision and we are being ignored but economically they could see the

case for leaving the United Kingdom is worse now. It is much worse and

this is a bit rich for Kevin Stockburger chaos when we'll see in

the SNP can't even answer basic questions about the economy such as

which currency Scotland were dues. I think it is key to remember the

Scottish people and the polls are very clear this do not want an early

referendum. Voters in Scotland, just as in England, a perfectly

reasonable and weather or not they voted for Brexit it is preposterous

the idea that you might in the middle of trying to negotiate this

difficult deal, difficult set of negotiations in late 2018 early 2019

that the UK Government would also have a referendum on breaking up the

UK. Nicola Sturgeon is made a point and maybe it suits everybody that

the Prime Minister is saying you can't have it just yet. Whatever

protestations are made in public maybe that is fine for Nicola

Sturgeon because she can point again to the arrogance of Westminster

telling us what to do. That is true. It may everybody gets a bit of what

they want but I think it is worth remembering that the SNP are

brilliant at politics but they are not perfect at it. They're

infallible. And they are not now pretty wanted to be are intended to

be after the Brexit referendum. By now Scottish anger about Brexit was

supposed to have led to a clamour for an instant referendum and move

into the European Union which incidentally the SNP are now backing

away from and no seems to favour some sort of Norway status because

so many SNP voters actually voted for Brexit. A third of SNP voters 42

leave the European Union. Sturgeon finds herself in a tricky position.

Alissa There are governments in Europe that are concerned such as

Spain concerned that of Scotland gets out the same will happen for

Catalonia. I think this was an old argument against independence of

Scotland in the eyes of the European Union but this has been surpassed by

events. -- Annalisa. Britain is sabotaging our union. There is a

reason for resentment out there. If people in favour Brexit were to be

punished by the break-up of the United Kingdom I guess a lot of

people would not be so displeased any more. We do not know what

relationship Scotland would want if it were to be independent but would

that make it easier? Would there be more of a welcome for the Scots? I

think so. It is understandable because it would be a validation of

the regional dimensions of the European Union which is very

important as well and the fact that the Scots would be ready to leave

the UK to rejoin the EU would be an encouragement and don't forget that

the European Union is changing very fast. All the convection prejudice

are changing as well. There is a lot of goodwill towards redesigning the

European Union. It is all up in air. Nobody has a solid and comprehensive

view on the matter. The battle of the two unions. The two are

interconnected. What ever happens to the first, pulling out from Europe

through Brexit, will certainly affect the United Kingdom. There are

noises now, certainly Scotland is started. Maybe you will hear that

from Northern Ireland as well. It is very interesting seeing how it will

be sorted out, the relationship between Northern Ireland and Ireland

which is part of the European Union. Today Gordon Brown, former Prime

Minister, came up with this new or third option. That is what is

calling it. Give Scotland the devolved authority and more power,

even to the extent that they can sign international treaties, and

also power to do their own agriculture policies. A lot of other

things as well. At the same time remain in the United Kingdom. So

Theresa May should really take a look into all of these things.

Kevin, I wanted to bring you on about some of the criticisms that

Iain may. You could say if that is another referendum in two or three

years fatigue of having the same party in power for Scotland my not

play into the interests of the SNP. As we know, you cover criticism

about how the NHS is working and the education system which any

Government gets but it is not a great platform for going to the

people in Singh should be independent. There were a couple

things that I would like to pick Iain up on. We're not talking about

referendum any time soon. We're talking at the earliest next autumn

and probably more towards spring which is two years away. That is

within Theresa May 's own timetable for the conclusion of Brexit talks.

We're not too far away. With regard to the economy or future predictions

of Scotland's future economy, any uncertainty is surely going to be

eclipsed by the economic apocalypse which could be visited upon the UK

as a result of a harder Brexit and a chaotic Brexit which is what we have

at the moment. To address that point about the internal workings of the

country, the SNP as a Government does have a responsibility to

improve for instance the attainment gap in Scotland in education and

that is one thing the Nicola Sturgeon this First Minister in

Scotland asked us and the country to judge a run at the next election in

2021. Yeah, it be host the SNP -- be holes -- behoves the SNP to do this.

Calling a referendum at any time is a risk. The Prime Minister believes

there has been an attack on the southern status of the Scottish

Parliament. That is yes majority there. Looking at how this is being

handled and the kind of things that are being said in Parliament and the

lack of scrutiny from the Labour opposition, it is not picture. In

terms of Brexit and also the budget. We have seen a complete U-turn on a

major part of policy within a couple of days and be seen the

interrogation of the Prime Minister at prime ministers question time but

the Leader of the Opposition which was not exactly forensics. What I'm

trying to say is that politics in Westminster does not inspire a great

deal of confidence that people actually know what they're doing.

I'm not sure it is restricted to Westminster. Talking about the

European Union having the prosperity of 20 countries does not really

applying grease. I always said it would be difficult. -- in Greece. I

do not agree with Kevin saying this is an apocalypse. This week Mr David

Davis said he does not even have a simulation of what the cost would

be. Can you imagine if he said I have run the numbers and would you

like a paper on the economic apocalypse which is coming? Key

thing which is not focused on that is focused on in Germany is that the

UK runs the Eurozone. It runs 75% of the debt markets. The Eurozone is a

giant gets machine and runs out of the City of London. This is why

Germany does not want to see disrupted. A deal, if everyone is

sensible, it's possible. But if you bought it for Brexit and use other

battle bus that said 350 million a week for the NHS if you bought for

us, which is a very specific figure which perhaps nobody believed, there

was great specifics about how it was going to be fantastic and know there

is no specifics. -- now. All the evidence so far is that the

overwhelming body of public opinion in the UK, people just really want

to get on with it. May is bowling extremely well because people think

a reasonable person who's going to try to try to get a deal. A deal is

possible but she is also preparing the ground in case it is not a deal.

Which is not the apocalypse. Go and tell the British farmers that 40%

tariffs slapped. Because of the deals that the UK would fall on

automatically if it crashes are the single murky. How on earth will be

cold protruding like the Americans and the Chinese? You would sell your

beef did Americans? You used to be a nation of shopkeepers and you you

what was the value of selling to 500 million people is on your doorstep.

Now you see will sell everything to New Zealand and Canada are America.

One thesis is that she would swap the single murky of 509 people with

this. It is not one of the other, it is both. France and Germany want to

trade with the UK and the UK wants to trade with France and Germany. If

everyone a sensible deal can be done. But Theresa May has said no

deal is better than a bad deal. Kevin, you wanted to come in. When I

talked about some of the enforcer rhetoric of some of the ministers

responsible for these negotiations, people like Liam Fox talking about

building another empire. No, he didn't. And saying that Britain

doesn't have anything to apologise for any of its history. We're

talking about 27 member states we have to with. I don't think anything

that they have seen the last eight months coming out of Westminster,

covering out of Britain, instils in them any confidence that they are

dealing with somebody who as you keep seeing a sensible about this.

Meanwhile in Scotland, Scotland has a history with Europe which predates

its history with England. We were dealing and trading with Europe at a

time when England and the rest of the UK was wanting to fight them

compete with them in Africa and Asia. Scotland has a longer history

of European involvement and multiculturalism than the rest of

the union. Kevin is a brilliant journalist and an old friend. I can

remember when there was an Irish nationalist and when he was a

British Unionist to stop know he is a Scottish Nationalists. It is

nonsense to say that Liam Fox said he was trying to invent the empire.

It is simply not the case. Perhaps that is influenced a lot of people

took it. That is what of the record one official said to a newspaper and

it is not the same thing. We are really watching that in the third

World. With great interest. The debate on Brexit and Scotland. We

also look at it with a great entry because we do not have such

diplomacy unfortunately. We can sort it out very quickly by using the

army and they put an end to it. I don't think that will happen here.

How interested people across Europe on this? I go to Germany and they

are interested in one thing which is mainly the German elections. France,

the same thing. The headlines in a lot of union papers this week were

about the stand-off with Turkey as they put it with Turkish

interference as they see it. The situation in the world is very

serious. We have a situation of chaos. All across the borders of the

European Union and North Africa and the Middle East. Ukraine. Today the

first contingent of 800 British troops are on the Estonian border to

try to deter the aggression of Russia. There are big things going

on in the world. What is not really clear in Britain is for the rest of

Europe Brexit is sorted. So now Britain has to get on with it. They

will say today in the German parliament we have understood that

it is going to take a very long time for the British to understand the

kind of self-inflicted pain that they have chosen so we just need to

wait and see. And that sums up the situation. That is a complete

misrepresentation. Why did the polls when it came to London just before

Christmas bring their entire cabinet? -- Poles. They are most

worried about Russian incursion. The UK is the second power in Nato and

the leading intelligence listening power. It is very strong relations

with the French but it is a key part of the European security system. We

do take our responsibility seriously. The Polish realise and

increased with the German I speak to realise that that is much more to

the European question than the narrow question of the European

Union. Britain is going to have to do more, France is going to have to

do more to defend its border. Because of Russia. There are very

serious issues that are much more important to the EU as an

institution. Let's move onto one of those very serious issues.

Six years ago this week the people of Syria rose up

Six years on an the dictator is still in place

Can anyone see an end to this war whose humanitarian

It doesn't seem that there's an end at the moment, not even really in

the foreseeable future. Unless the world attitude towards what is

happening in Syria changes. And that really means the involvement of the

West directly. With troops? Not necessarily only troops. Troops will

not sorted out. The West is used troops before in other conflicts.

The last of which was the former Yugoslavia. Troops were not enough.

We have to deal with the economy and sanctions and trade and

reconstruction as well. You're talking about hundreds of billions

of pounds. For reconstruction in the country. Over the country the

estimates by United Nations agencies and the World Bank and the rest of

them is huge. Unless the United States and the EU and the UK and

France and Germany, certainly, this should have come around and bring

over a vision to sort it out. Stop or contain Russia to start with. And

also put a limit to Iran interfering, not only in the country

but in the entire region itself. How do you see this, Annalisa? There are

those who say they didn't want to see it any more. I think we all have

that kind of sorry. It is a tragic situation. People have become used

to horror and they can take it any more. But it is also a huge

responsibility for political leaders and people in the media to actually

explain more clearly that not looking at it will not make it go

away. North Africa and the Middle East, they are on fire. There is a

very difficult situation they are that is not going to improve. We

have seen America disengaging from a lot of those kind of scenarios and

Russia is increasingly belligerent. We cannot pretend that this is not

happening and look only at at our naval and think about Brexit. What

is danger just this -- the world is dangerous and we need to do

something. Kevin, there is a sense that some people have compassion

fatigue and there is much worse ahead. It is not just humanity doing

terrible things to other human beings, it is Somalia and the

drought and people are on the move and the migration question. This

will be the story of at least the next decade and it seems to be

getting worse. You can never overestimate the common humanity and

humanity of ugly people. Who responded to these crises in many

countries and the charitable giving and taking refugees and asylum

seekers into homes. You can't overestimate that. But that is a

pretty going on because whenever that are these humanitarian crises

in what we have previous to call the third World and parts of the Middle

East, and Africa, we put up our hands and we express horror at it

and then we move on. But Syria is going to be with us for another

generation at least. And the West, if they are going to make any

movement, they have two face up to their responsibilities in the region

and face up to the part it played in quite a lot of that instability. I

want to bring in Iain. I agree with that. It is shaming and shameful. I

think it is also understandable. A lot of it is down to the position

that President Obama took. That came after the Iraq experiment and

Afghanistan and the financial crisis. There was no appetite in the

West to engage properly with these problems. The result is a human

catastrophe and I think it is really down to a failure of leadership in

the west across parties and across the country is. To then vacate that

space and responsibility and allow the Russians to fill the vacuum of

thing will be a catastrophe. It will not work. People are being killed

daily. Human life means nothing nowadays and fortunately. The people

of the region are paying the price of the failed policy of the West. In

Iraq and Afghanistan. And Libya. And everywhere else.

That's it for Dateline London for this week.

I'm leaving the BBC in a week's time and so Dateline London next week

I hope you can join me and my guests.

The rest of this week will bring a mild and breezy weather for the vast

majority that cloud amounts and rainfall amounts will vary. Aberdeen

Shire started fairly bright.