06/05/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

This week, the war of elections in France and the UK,

and a new round of jaw-jaw to try to bring peace

To discuss that, four eminent "jaw-ers" -

British Conservative commentator Alex Deane,

Thomas Keilinger who writes for Germany's Die Welt,

and Agnes Poirier, UK editor of Marianne in France.

If Emmanuel Macron wins, what kind of France will be get? Nobody knows.

We have seen him at the debate with Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen had a

disastrous car crashed debate he held the fort. He was relaxed and

calm. So at least we know he is kind of presidential 48 39-year-old. What

we know? His programme is pro-business but also quite socially

conscious. He is a centrist. The real thing is, of course, the

general elections which will be taking place in June. We need to

fill all the MPs seats at the national Assembly. It was the first

time we might have a president without a party, OK. He said he

didn't want anyone from the left and the right. Therefore he needs to

present a new face for every single constituency. I agree also that is

the crunch time, if he wins. Attempts to present him as an

outsider, a new force, are lost. He is clearly a very astute person who

has turned around a shell of the Conservative Party and escape from

that. Without having a real party in parliament and that is when the real

test will come I about the of the WikiLeaks we have seen overnight. It

seems there is clearly some stuff in there which is very negative about

Macron. I am not saying that will mean he loses but if he wins, it

will play throughout June when the general election happens. I think I

am more interested in the kind of president he will be and the

personality, which we have to learn a great deal of it is about French

visceral resistance to change and domestic reform. It is the elephant

in the room. It is the elephant in the room. Two years ago, President

Hollande tried modest reforms. How will he surmount the bill in

resistance and the conservatism which will not let go of the 55 age

going into retirement and the 35 working week as well. They are just

as much in danger of being a problem for the euro over time as the other

countries. The fear is he might just be another President Francois

Hollande and just sit for five years. That means Marine Le Pen is a

shoo-in. Is France reform of all? That is a big question. Its oldest

ally is the United States. There is lots of evidence by the United

States you can change the politics of a country but it is hard to do if

you have not brought the public on site was might say Macron has not

done that yet. He has done better than anyone expected he reminds me

of Tony Blair. He is the young, vigorous life or you listen to what

he says carefully and you think how do those things sit together

question that is the magic and the danger. He had a majority and he

could not do everything he wanted to do. I would say that Marine Le Pen

will get 40%. Donald Trump got 46%. These are still large numbers of

people who will resist. But, if he manages to shuffle the cards, which

he seems to have done psychically, and say we have to do something new,

maybe some of those things will happen and there will not be farmers

with tractors in Paris every week. The demand was always for a stronger

president. They have had it each time in each time the president has

been ineffectual. I think the position of Le Pen will be

significant, whatever happens. Either way France will be run by a

woman, either by me or by Angela Merkel. Let's pick up on that. There

has been a suggestion that actually this will be regarded as a boon in

Berlin. There will be a restoration of the strength and the relationship

between Paris and Berlin that has been seen as the driver, the engine

of progress. If they think that will happen they are running ahead of

themselves. Macron needs to establish the kind of person he is,

whether he can make France more formal ball. Angela Merkel has to

win her mandate. And then, in addition in this day and age that

nothing works like access politics anymore. Everything is in the shadow

of centrifugal forces which make it pretty impossible in the crowd of

the 26 member states of the EU in the old Empire between France and

Germany. I do not think it will happen. Germany will be just as

eager as all of us around this table as to what kind of president Macron

will be. Let's not write off entirely the possibility of the Penn

winning for the people going to these things thinking they know the

result. -- Marine Le Pen winning. You are foolish in a binary

situation to dismiss that possibility. She is a much better

candidate than her father was. She was a much more astute politician.

Talking of Brexit, the kind of headache from London and for Theresa

May is presumably, if there is a stronger voice, it means they will

be more closely aligned with European Union and a candidate

saying he is in favour of greater integration with Europe and Europe

of a better kind, as he might see it. How much harder does that make

it for Theresa May? My take on is that the EU has to be very careful

to see the majority of Theresa May when she comes back with a larger

mandate, choose one of the strongest heads of government in the whole of

Europe. It gives her a strong card to play. Simply to treat Britain

like a secessionist country which have to be, if not punished, but the

way out in brutal fashion. It will be the wrong approach will stop I

believe a strong mandate for Theresa May will be not only good for her

but good for the EU because some better sense will be obtained in the

negotiations. I am not convinced overall that the stronger mandate

the British Prime Minister has. I think it is not good news for

Theresa May if it is Marine Le Pen, it is the least of our concerns. If

it is Macron, he has said it before. He is a reformer and wants to open

up the economy. Nobody is very pro-Europe. It means Theresa May has

yet not an ally. He will not try to punish Britain but he is like many

others, not going to make it easy. The negotiations have not started

yet. We saw the Irish bred the Dutch and the Danes form a coalition

saying, please don't let trivia catches up on Brexit. We need to get

to the big ticket items. Judged from our national interests, Marine Le

Pen be a better result for the UK than Macron because she is in favour

of countries asserting that independence and leaving the EU but

he is not. Just as President Trump, on the question of the national

interests, than President Clinton would have been. What does it mean

in terms of the relationship? We have had some difficult days since

Sunday of last week when the German newspaper published the outcome of

what it called the Brexit dinner. What was that about Chris Rock was a

deliberate, pre-emptive strike? -- what was that all about? Was it a

deliberate, pre-emptive strike? It was about telling the position of

Theresa May not to be delusional. I think it was made worse by what

Juncker said when he said he was not going to speak British because

Britain was losing its influence in Europe. What a silly thing to say!

There is something rather convenient about this row for both sides. For

the commission to say, to some of the other EU leaders who are saying,

go on, you have to punish the British because otherwise our

countries will do that. Make it look like it's difficult otherwise why

would you mind Jeremy Corbyn Dummett. It goes with the grown-ups

and Theresa May. It is that logic. I think there is hostility. In the

example we are talking about, I am not dismissing any suggestion of UK

foul play along the line. Sample we are talking about, it is from

Brussels. -- in the example we are talking about it was the dinner and

it was meant to be private. It was rude. If you are trying to establish

an environment of trust where you can speak open and honestly behind

closed doors and then there is a leak like this, it is a very bad

start. If she talked at this dinner about saying they would not pay

anything to leave. She took a position which was not part of any

real negotiation. I am astonished that impartial journalist to the

word of Juncker. We do not know what was said. Why was she irritated if

it got reported? It was supposed to be private. Once you get into the

game of saying I did say that and did not say that right you are

discussing it as well for stuck it is ridiculous what temp Adid. The

fact we had Angela Merkel giving the speech were talking to temp

Aprivately, I am concerned that people in Britain are having

unreasonable expectations is that that was the real view. -- talking

to Juncker privately. Brussels are now excusing themselves saying, they

understand that sensitivity. It has thrown these grenades into the

debate. It seems to have done Theresa May no harm. She has said,

stop interfering. At the council elections on Thursday, all the Ukip

seats which have been won by the pro-Brexit, anti-EU party, which has

caused banks, they all fell back again and the Tories did very well.

It did not do any harm in the UK. It was playing to the gallery. Why not

do that in the next four weeks of the British election campaign? It

will be a landslide for the Tories. Seen from abroad, from Europe

perhaps, it was slightly ridiculous seeing her say Europe is

interfering, meddling in UK politics. Well, we have other fish

to fry. You cannot resist meddling. Got rid of the Greek government put

sanctions on the Austrians. It is what they do. Publicly speaking

about the dinner and so forth. It was clearly designed to be heard in

the UK. It would have been a duty on her part to react like that. But it

is an election campaign and she has to fight back. Is there a risk, if

she continues down this line, given she has to build the negotiations

and conceivably convince the British and conceivably convince the British

at some point? We did not get everything we wanted but it is still

a good deal. I would say, there are some of us, and I include myself in

this, he watched that speech you are decrying and thought, great, finally

someone who is standing up for the UK and there is nothing wrong with

that. Let's pose the question. A politician would say it is

hypothetical but you are all proper analysts. I know you will not dodge

this one. What happens if there is not a deal? Well, I think Britain

will get on with it, to quote Prince Philip and his mantra. They are not

much of a complaining nation. They will find a way to get out of a

sticky corner. Britain has always coped with uncertainty is very

welcome. Lord Nelson said, at the Battle of Trafalgar, nothing is

certain in a sea fight. Something must be left to chance. Chance has

very many meanings. It could mean opportunities. As a rule, I am not

so negative about it. Germany could not cope with such a degree of

uncertainty which now hovers about the British future. Our nerves would

collapse under the uncertainties of Brexit. It really comes down to the

technical aspects of what really would happen. Is it rules everyone

skips back to? Are the terrorists going to be differentially

complicated? Are they going to be queues of ten miles of trucks at

each side of the border? The train going across the Channel for

different parts of it construction. There are all capillary economic

stuff. That is the fear, the uncertainty this will all be a mess.

There will be less foreign investment from other countries

which would think this would be a good base to do Europe from. The

Germans cannot cope with that. They are not supposed to put up what is

the virtue of Britain? To make free trade deals with New Zealand? And

the rest of the world. Growth is higher everywhere than the EU. I've

fear leaving the EU without the deal. It takes a long time to look

at the agreement between Canada and Europe, which took years and years.

When we leave the EU, tariff agreements tend to take a long time

because people argue over standards for every item. When we leave the

EU, our standard settings will be identical at that point. That means

there will be interesting times when one nation will have been creamed

off from the EU relatively wealthy, relatively uncorrupt, respecting of

trade law, copyright and forth. No deal does not concern you? Exactly.

I agree about the transition. You say that. That is if there is an

agreement and they move onto a transition period while they

negotiate a trade agreement. What if there is no deal on Brexit? We will

leave. We will trade on WTA rules. People ask what that means for

business. What is interesting is what it means the people, consumers.

The European Union's in market is a protectionist customs union designed

to keep prices in the EU high and to pay more for goods we would

otherwise pay less for by importing it. That is in the interests of the

British people. Why can't they buy from around the world now? Because

of the customs union. There are low tariffs with the other places. This

sounds far too compensated. Let's go some much easier where it is much

more simple to understand, where everyone understands the rules of

game. When Donald Trump was talking about the restored Middle East peace

process, It might be a bigger and better

deal than people in this At the time, his remarks provoked

incredulity and derision. After all, in Trumpland things

are always "bigger and better" This week, though, after meeting

him, the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

praised his "courageous stewardship and your wisdom

as well as your great negotiating ability" and said there

could be an "historic peace treaty" between Israel

and the Palestinians. trump the Peacemaker. What is going

on? Well, I think, the first thing that is going on is he loves getting

people like us to talk about it and he has succeeded. I plead guilty. Me

as well. The temptation of Trump is to make you think maybe he is so

different he will break the impasse. Maybe with North Korea, he was able

to stir things up and get the Chinese to do something new. I think

the problem is, he has no follow-through. He has no ideology.

He does not have a background to make this work. Look at the S strike

in Syria. Missiles go, what is next? His attention moves on to the next

thing. With the Middle East, it is fun to stir things up a little bit

at the beginning. Now what? There has probably been less... I had

spent too much time going to these places while former officials were

trying to make peace, it gets involved with the core process. It

is great to bask in the glow of Donald Trump for a little while. The

Israelis are a little concerned about this. Already there is

pushback. The tweet that was put onto the Twitter account by Donald

Trump saying it was honoured Peshmerga he was honoured, we do not

know why that happened? -- he was honoured. He has sent his own lawyer

to do theirs. The thought of Bill Clinton with maps talking to Yasser

Arafat at camp David going over individual lines and citizen trying

to make the hard calls to make this kind of thing work, that is not

Donald Trump. I was there in camp David in 1978. I am biased. I have

known the history of the futile negotiations going on. The problem

with Donald Trump he thinks the world has been created in his own

image. He can say these things. He raises hopes which are unfulfilled.

He is playing with people's desire to really make something positive.

He cannot just announce this will happen. We will wait to see what

will emerge. His announcement means nothing. In 1982, in the bass, he

has hope in Tramp. I would be interested to note Trump. -- he has

hope in Trump. In the precursor environment, after the non-agreement

at Camp David and Arafat did not go with it, it is a bit like Brexit

from the European perspective. Nothing is agreed until everything

is agreed that began you have got a lot agreed and it falls apart in the

Middle East. In Jerusalem, that really in the end is one we can talk

about for years and come to a solution. In 1978, they knew

personally welcome that the peace agreement was not going to deal with

the Palestinian issue. As long as you did not get to grips with that,

there will be a cloud hanging over the whole area you can have a

bilateral peace agreement and it will not advance the cause of the

Palestinian people. What about the argue and that so much time has been

spent on the detail? We talked about sitting down with maps and the rest

of it. The bold move is what has been lacking. The bold move that

Jeff was suggesting that could cause people to think afresh in an

environment where it almost feels like every option is like that.

Exactly. That is what Donald Trump is doing he has unlocked things by

being so different. He did not say he was in favour of a Palestinian

state. What is he saying he is willing to do? He is saying he is in

favour of a two state solution, they were macro state solution. George W

Bush set that out very clearly. I do not think that has changed. What has

changed is the optimism which I think is very good. It may not go

anywhere. It would be very bad if the United States president arrives,

being a cynical about the situation. We would not say that. We understand

outside for Saddam limited ability to interfere. The one breakthrough

we had in 77, those where players on the ground full if the Israeli

government have anything to say about that... It was not that Jimmy

Carter calls that that they could give it a bigger contact. They did

it at the time because there was fear that Russia could be the

overlord over what happened in the Middle East. Nobody wanted that to

happen. It was a bold move by Jerusalem. They have a lot more

power than it does now and a lot more capacity to make the Israelis

concerned. Now the Israelis have managed to make the Republican Party

almost a subsidiary. Not really. It is too far. The Republicans invited

Benjamin Netanyahu to make a speech. Absolutely unprecedented. It is

difficult to pushback on Israel. Nowadays the politics are very hard

about that. As Trump is finding, just the tiniest bit possible. Thank

you as always. I would have liked to have been a fly on the ball in the

Brexit dinner. I think I would be like to be a fly on the wall for the

meeting between Donald Trump and Pope Francis.

That's it for Dateline London for this week.

We're back next week at the same time.

You can of course comment on the programme.

Hello. Mixed fortunes for many of us today. The best of the sunshine