02/09/2017 Dateline London


02/09/2017

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Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

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This week we discuss whether Theresa May can go

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on and on as Prime Minister, look at the latest round of Brexit talks,

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and ask what can be done to defuse the North Korea crisis?

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the political journalist and commentator Alex Deane

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the North American journalist and broadcaster Jeffrey Kofman

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and the writer broadcaster Mihir Bose.

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The British Prime Minister Theresa May ended up having a rather frank

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conversation with journalists on her flight to Japan this week -

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she insisted she would like to lead her Conservative party into the next

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general election, in five years time.

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For politics-watchers of a certain age, there were echoes

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of Margaret Thatcher's stated determination to go on and on.

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Alex, what did you make of her comments?

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I think as soon as any political leader gives the deadline as to when

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they are going to go, speculation becomes rampant about who will

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replace them. It's healthy for a leader to want to fight whatever the

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next contest is that their party faces. It was the right thing for

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the Prime Minister to say. There is also more room to manoeuvre than in

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the Blair Brown years because there is no Gordon Brown. There is no one

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going around with lots of aggression, both theirs and others,

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determined to oust the incumbent. Interestingly, Tony Blair also got

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caught by a pack of journalists on the plane when Doctor David Kelly

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died. They got a lot of commentary out of him in that time. There seems

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to be something that happens on aircraft. I think you are right. The

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dilemma that Theresa May faced was if she did not declare this, she was

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in danger of becoming a caretaker and lame-duck Prime Minister. She

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has to be all in. She can't be half pregnant, so to speak. Whether it is

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the intention to stay, she needs to declare this or else she loses

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control. I don't think she is going to stay. Obviously she will wait

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until the Brexit negotiations and then she will go and you are quite

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right. You know, she can't say no, I won't stay otherwise she will be

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dead in the water. She will wait for the Brexit negotiations. I can't see

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her leading the Conservative Party. Into an election? There was

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speculation after the election that the May's leadership might have been

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under attack before that, but her fortunes have improved considerably.

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David Davis is the one to watch out for. The bigger picture is, you are

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right, it was the only answer she could give as the leader of the

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Conservative government, but in national terms, what is this good

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for if she stays? She is, as many people have commented, she has lost

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her credibility. She went into an election she did not need to and

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lost the Conservatives seats and ended up with a hung parliament

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which means that the government is too weak to legislate. At a time

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when Britain is dealing with Brexit, economic stagnation, wage stagnation

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and spiralling costs. We have a government that is ineffectual. They

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cannot do anything to address real issues and problems. So when we look

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at her in terms of she is doing the responsible thing, and that might be

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true for her party because the Conservatives don't have another

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leader otherwise she would be replaced in a flash. They simply do

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not have anyone to replace her with. It might be good party, but what is

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good for the country? You could make the argument that it would be better

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for the Conservative Party to have a leadership challenge, even if that

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precipitate another election. One of the reasons for her making the

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comment now is that the party conferences coming up. She would not

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want to say something like, I'm going to go because then the party

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conference will become an election for which is the last thing they

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want. It's going to be anyway. They are too disgruntled with her and

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there is too much disunity within the party for that plaster, that

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Band Aid to stick. And to your point, Alex, there is no obvious

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successor and that is different to where we were a few months ago. It

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has change quickly. There is no obvious person around whose

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ambitions might coalesce, but I disagree with Rachel. There are

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plenty of people around the Cabinet table that are qualified to hold the

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role of Prime Minister, it simply that the May's position does more to

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defend itself when she is in the mode of governing and not

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campaigning. Any party that calls an election when it doesn't need to and

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does not get the result it wants, it's not good. I disagree with

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Rachel though because challenges to Theresa May are far less likely than

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these conversations imply. I know where going to talk about Brexit in

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a moment... They dovetail! We see the Labour Party defining a

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different position over the last week and so it becomes a more

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nuanced going for her to try to figure out how to navigate Brexit.

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It is not going well and whether or not she can deliver something that

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is going to satisfy enough people, I think it will determine her own

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future. Mihir, you mentioned David Davis. Let's talk about him and what

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he has been saying. He said that things had got a little tense this

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week. That's the word he used as Brexit tools were into their third

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round. Another British minister, Liam Fox,

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said the country shouldn't be blackmailed by the EU

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over the divorce bill. the bloc's chief negotiatior,

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expressed frustration at the slow Rachel, you've been writing

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a lot about Europe. through all of this,

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he remains optimistic. No, I am not optimistic. It is not

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looking good, is it? It was a deadlock and it was to be expected.

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In terms of the EU black men in Britain, I mean I would not expect

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anything other than the EU looking after now it's 27 remaining states.

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I do not expect it to do anything different, so I think it's a bit

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ridiculous and certainly, I can understand the frustration of the EU

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negotiators saying, look, we need to see some paperwork here. Something,

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anything. Give us some indication of where this is going so we can

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negotiate, so we can start negotiating. What is becoming more

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and more clearer is how much Brexit is really an ideology rather than a

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deliverable practical reality, but we are where we are, we voted to

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leave and we to execute that. I think what is becoming clear now is

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that there is a difference between the two. The their political reality

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of what they are saying rhetorically is very much what the negotiating

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situation is. For Britain, the political reality differs from the

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rhetoric that Brexiteers have been giving us over what we might expect

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from a deal and I think the government, it's incumbent on them

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to manage people's expectations and said look, we promised you a lot of

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stuff we can't deliver. We don't know yet, we might be able to

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deliver it. It is early days, actually. The writing is on the

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wall. We do know, the cake and eat it thing is something we know. We

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cannot have the same conditions and exit. Things will change, right?

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It's likely they will change for the worst, at least in the short term

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and we almost certainly do need a conditional deal that needs as much

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continuity in place as is possible and certainly parliament to have

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changed their position on that has made a difference. It's not tenable

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one have any Parliamentary wait. There is a big gap between what the

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public has been promised and what actually will be the case. That is a

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problem the Britain in a way it isn't for the EU. This notion of

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blackmail is very much about trying to set up a bogeyman that says, oh,

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it is therefore. In Europe this is not a big deal as it is here. This

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is Britain's problem. The people of France and Germany in the

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Netherlands are waking up and saying, I want to have a Brexit

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negotiations went this week? They have their own issues. Macron has

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transformed the French economy. That's what they're talking about in

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the French media. This is an old political game. Those bad guys in

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Brussels, the EU were making it difficult and not playing fair. This

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is a British problem and Britain has to find a way to negate the gate --

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find a way to navigate with the EU. On the one hand the rhetoric coming

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out of the EU is wholly accurate, on the other hand the rhetoric from the

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United Kingdom is outrageous, and serves and does not reflect reality.

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Both sides are posturing. There is this weird self lacerating instinct

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among some in the United Kingdom to believe everything that comes out of

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the EU bloc and nothing that is said by our own government and

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representatives. Some of this is not true. The suggestion that we need

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some paperwork to have some kind of negotiation as Rachel said, that was

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a big gap there. There have been publications of Brexit papers. It's

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about what is in them. You are having your own meta- debate. Oh, I

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don't like that paperwork. Historically, this reminds me of the

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Empire. There was a difference. The British were in control. For

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example, India was going to become a republic. Backley and Churchill

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wrote begging letters staying in the near room, stay. They created then

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the Commonwealth which is an imaginary club. The Queen has no

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power in India or the various republics are formed. The British

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aren't used to walking away. They like to be liked. They like to feel

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they are morally superior, that is the basis of their war, we are

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morally right. What the EU is not giving them is enough of that

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reassurance, that feeling that we can create a club somehow and have

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links with the EU of a certain kind, but yes we are outside it. What is

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interesting is Labour's walk back. Now we have some differentiation

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between the two main parties and it creates an interesting opportunity

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for debate. Corbyn, for so many people is hard to stomach as much as

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he has a huge following. He is a polarising figure, as is Theresa

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May. Now his party straddling these different worlds. That distinction

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is interesting. Corbyn, until he became leader at least, used to say

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that the EU was a stitch up, done in the interest of big business and big

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banks. He's not completely wrong. Then he becomes the leader of a

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party that is fastly more pro-EU then he is. He is sort of mumbling

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and going on with his position. Keir Starmer, whose position is

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different, it goes almost unsaid that there is this gulf between him

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and his leader. Does anyone think that there are moderate voices in

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Europe who are not being heard in this debate? To Alex's point, there

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will be posturing, this is part of a negotiating process and there are

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probably lots of reasonable people behind the scenes who want to strike

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a deal with Britain because it is in everyone's interests, in terms of

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trade in harmony. The only way to give Britain to good deal, is that

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other countries might want it as well. They have to keep the union

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together. If they have too many getaway causes, other countries will

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want it. Is that the EU worry? If you had a friend who was in a

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relationship and they wanted to leave, but were afraid to do so

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because of the consequences of what would happen, what would you advise

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them to do? That has no substance. If you are a member of a club, then

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obviously you want the perks to be better than they would be if you

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were outside the club. Nobody in that club will want to see someone

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leap that club and have the same benefits, and that is what I meant

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by the rhetorical gap. That position is the EU position and that is

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consistent with what they are saying. They are constantly saying,

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look, things can't be the same for you. I'm going to pause it there

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because guess what? We will be talking about this a lot in many

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weeks to come. The next stage of the reading of the bill is in the UK

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Parliament on Thursday, said there may be more next week. Thank you on

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all of that is now, but there will be more to come.

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Tensions on the Korean peninsula are the highest

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The United Nations condemned as outrageous North Korea's firing

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of a ballistic missile over Japan a few days ago.

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all options were then on the table, and today we learn that the US

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and South Korea have agreed in a phone call to strengthen

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Seoul's missile programme, and that Donald Trump approved

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the sale of billions of dollars worth of military equipment

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Jeffrey, the firing of the missile over Hakkaido

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We have talked about ratcheting it up a few times, but this is

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ratcheting it up again? These are frightening times. If you live in

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that peninsula, these are terrifying times. What we have are two

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schoolyard bullies, King John Warner and Trump. What we need is

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diplomacy. No one is going to win this, we know that. Ultimately the

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US will triumph, should it get to that horrific scenario, but it's not

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one we can allow to happen. We have to bring it back and find a way to

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allow the sides to save face enough to dial this down. If that means the

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US pull back a bit on their military exercises, somehow we have to get

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North Korea in its insanity to stop firing these missiles and say OK,

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you can save face. The problem is it now looks like extortion. The

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sanctions that were passed in early August by the UN are crippling

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against iron, or an seafood and other exports from North Korea. 25

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million people with the average income of about $1000 US a year.

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They need the sanctions lifted. Be duly elected president of the United

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States and the third generation of a dictator who has this map -- who has

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systematically... I take your point, but the fact is we have a president

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in the US, this has gone on through Obama, through Bush, Bill Clinton,

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it goes right back to Richard Nixon, this belligerence we are seeing out

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of North Korea. They have managed to contain it. The policy, like we have

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seen in the Cold War is one of containment. If Ruby belligerence of

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a duly elected US president, and we can talk about that another time, if

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belligerence meets belligerence, are we going to be better off? The point

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is, why is keen on doing it? He has seen Saddam and Gaddafi, two very

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bad dictators, no question about it, not having nuclear weapons, removed.

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There is at some stage some big oceans that need to take place and

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China is crucial to this to make sure that whatever your regime is,

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and of course you were not elected like the American system, but we

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don't want to remove you from power. How you do that is the crucial thing

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and the more belligerent talk there is one Trump, it becomes more

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difficult to get that. It's interesting to see the effect it has

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had on Japan. You look at the country, and whatever you think of

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the geopolitics of those nations, they are now looking out for the

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first time they have raised the possibility of installing

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pre-emptive missile capacity. That is a really big deal for a country

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that constitutionally has been disinclined to do anything like that

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since the Second World War. It's a really big change and of course,

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they are now having drills in a way that it must be very terrifying for

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the population, and there is a Guardian story about this today.

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They have 600,000 northern Koreans living in Japan, a lot of them

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descendants of former prisoners and the tension being caused in the

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country itself between those two groups, is it is having terrible

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ramifications for the country as well and I do think that that is

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where the belligerence is really unhelpful. Let's get back to how we

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get to any form of negotiation. I have lost count of the number of

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academics, diplomats I have interviewed who say it is about

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diplomacy, you have to get them around the table, but no one is

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coming up with an answer. You are seeing a two track narrative. On one

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hand the president with his belligerence and the people very

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close to him, Tillerson, the Secretary of State and others in the

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Cabinet, being much more diplomatic and giving a different story. That's

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exactly what Nixon did with Russia and China in his triangulation

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policy and Kissinger had negotiations, notwithstanding the

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fact that the president was pumping the table. There is a rationale

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here. Maybe people don't want to see because they don't like President

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Trump, maybe they see it. But chairman -- ultimately, this is

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about buying them off and working out what the prices, as compared to

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the fact that the people that have been most resistant is the North

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Koreans. They have acquired the technology to have nuclear capacity

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and attack others. Not that they will do it in some mad act of self

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destruction, but it is to raise the stakes in the game. It's about

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self-preservation. North Korea, it's much more complex than German

:21:29.:21:34.

unification was. This economy has been in the decrepit state for so

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long and China has so much interest in not seeing an outcome that

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ultimately makes a unifying Korea with a western allies. There are all

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things at play in terms of the chess game in that region. We will post it

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there for now. We have met here with us. I have to ask you, football.

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Even I know that the transfer window closed this week and the figures

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were astronomical. It's a new record. What is going on here? There

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is more money available. The Premier League, which is the best run, most

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successful league in the world in money terms, they did a deal a year

:22:20.:22:28.

ago, 8.4 billion. More importantly, the money is going down to clubs

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that don't expect to be in the Premier League, like Bournemouth,

:22:33.:22:36.

who now have more money to spend. Britain has allowed a free market so

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most of the top Premier League clubs are owned by foreigners. Manchester

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City is owned by the United Arab Emirates. Like America, it doesn't

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believe in socialism, but it does believe in sporting socialism, we

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allow everyone to come in. They see this as branding exercises and as

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far as they are concerned, most of the money is going abroad. In the

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old days, there used to be Reaganite trickle-down economic. The big clubs

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pay the lower division clubs. Now they pay all sorts of foreign clubs.

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The only thing if they can get into the Premier League and brand

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themselves, look at what has happened by PSG. They are owned by

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the Qatar state. They paid 86 million for Neymar. Maybe that is a

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solution for Kim. Perhaps if the paid for Neymar and they could say

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that North Korea has a great footballer. If only! I am a fan of

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the best club in the United Kingdom, Ipswich town. We have secured a new

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striker from Rangers, so we have done our part! It does seem that

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when other clubs see that an English club is making an acquisition, the

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price goes up. People can pay more, so they do. We play exciting

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football and that is what is a sign of success. When people say that the

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sums are obscene, are we just wringing our hands? There is nothing

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we can do about it, it is the new World order. Much of Neymar's money

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went to his father. These players, because of the money they earn, they

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are corporate entities. They can employ the best lawyers, agents and

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because of the way that football works, the agents also the

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recruiters. But what about smaller clubs, grassroots? This is what is

:24:53.:24:58.

wrong with the 21st-century economy. This kind of polarisation of wealth,

:24:59.:25:05.

they are given a lot of money, but ?30 million, 35 million, it is just

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ludicrous. As we sit around a table at the BBC, let's not pretend it's

:25:11.:25:15.

just football that has a problem with salaries. That's what I said.

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The Americans have done it better. They disclose more details about

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players salaries. The Germans insist that 51% of the club is owned inside

:25:27.:25:31.

their own country. We have owners now who have no connection.

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Abramowitz has never given an interview. At the end of the day,

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football is meant to be a community sports. If the owners are somebody

:25:52.:25:55.

you have never heard of, they just come in by the club, what is their

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purpose in doing it? There we are. We attempted to solve geopolitical

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problems through football. Thank goodness you manage to do that for

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us. Lovely to have you all here. Much more to discuss same time, same

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place next week. Thank you for being with us. Goodbye.

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