21/10/2017 Dateline London

Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

This week we discuss Spain's constitutional crisis

Has there been perhaps some movement this week?

And, with one of the leading Middle East

analysts around our table, could we be witnessing the beginning

My guests are The Times columnist David Aaronovitch.

The North American writer and broadcaster,

Jeffrey Kofman Mina Al-Oraibi, the new editor-in-chief

And from Spain's La Razon, Celia Maza De Pablo.

A warm welcome to all of you. Let's start in Spain.

Spain is in the midst of a huge constitutional crisis.

As we go to air, an emergency cabinet meeting is discussing

suspending Catalonia's autonomy, in the wake of the independence

referendum - which was declared unconstituional by the courts -

It will be the first time in Spain's four decades of democracy that

Madrid has aimed to effectively sack a regional government

Are people going to take to the streets again?

Celia, do you approach this with nervousness? Without any doubt we

are living through the most important constitutional crisis in

the history of Spain. The central government is going to trigger

Article one of and 55 of the Constitution. This is going to be

the first time that we are going to see this scenario in recent history.

It is a new scenario for everyone. That's why it is so important, the

special meeting of the Cabinet today. Article 155, that by the way

was inspired by the German model, there are similar articles around a

lot of countries in the European Union, the article says that if the

legal and constitutional framework is broken, the government can use

any package of measures within the law to return this legal framework.

But the problem is there is no specific case and about the

measures. That is why it is so important, the meeting. The Spanish

president is going to discuss the measure which had been agreed with

the main parties of the opposition. That is important. Mariano Rajoy

knows he needs cross-party support? He has the support of the main

parties of the opposition. That is an important point. And later this

package of measures... It is different from the point of view in

Spain because it is an elected chamber. The package of measures

will be passed and will be approved. The Spanish president has the

majority. We don't know the details. But I presume that the central

government is going to take control of the Catalan police, for example,

finance, for example. We don't know the details but I assume this is

going to be a very smooth process with the goal to have Catalan

election is probably in January. We have to see what is going to be the

answer from the Catalan president. That is the thing. You say you hope

it is going to be a smooth process. Everybody remembers the horrific

scenes that we saw just a couple of weeks ago surrounding the

referendum. One never wants to pre-empt violence, but what is your

personal concern about that? Obviously the article 155 will

escalate the tension. The Catalan president says he is going to

declare independence. He is in a very difficult position. He has a

lot of pressure from his own party. He knows they do not have

international support. But having said that, there is a lot of

pressure to have again this protest in the streets. We are going to have

a very interesting few days ahead. My hope is that we don't want to see

the same violence in the streets. Those pictures were horrendous for

the Spanish brand. But see what happens in the days ahead. I think

it's inevitable, sadly, that this elevation of tension is going to be

the consequence. For those who believe in Catalonian separatism

this position of almost martial law will be their perception of what is

happening, and that is simply going to elevate tension. It is going to

polarise people. It is going to motivate them against the central

government. It feels like we are heading for a very incendiary time.

Obviously the violence is horrible and everybody condemns the violence.

But it is important not to focus on this thing. It is horrendous what

happened three weeks ago. But the important thing is that the Spanish

constitutional framework is broken and the Spanish government has to do

something to restore the unity of Spain. Obviously a lot of people in

the United Kingdom has a lot of sympathy right now for the Catalan

people who want independence. But I think it is important to follow the

rules. It is important to say that this referendum was illegal by the

Constitutional Court. It's important to focus on the legal and

constitutional framework of this important crisis in Spain. It is

important to remember that 90% of those who voted for independence

wanted it but they only represented 43% of those who can vote. A 43%

turnout. Exactly. This is one of the problems when you have a turnout

that is less than the majority. If we were to accept that, then even

the result itself should not say that all of Catalonia wants

independence and therefore everybody is behind it. One of the fears is

that if we say that regional elections are the solution in

January, then are there enough people on the ground in leadership

to say, let's push for a reversal of this? And can you reverse it after

they actually signed a declaration of independence? This is one of the

problems. The first few days of escalation after the referendum

output both sides in an almost impossible situation to try to come

back. That is when you need visionary leadership. We will be

talking about this in the coming days and weeks. Thank you, Celia. We

will see what emerges. Let's talk about the continue at Brexit

negotiations. And while EU leaders said at the end

of their summit that there hasn't been enough progress to begin trade

talks, European Council President Donald Tusk said reports

of a deadlock were exaggerated. It appears we may now be looking

at discussions about trade David, there seems to have

been a shift this week? From fascinating Catalonia to boring

Brexit. You would say that but we can't say that. No, you can't. What

I thought was interesting this week was the way in which the most

powerful leaders in Europe clustered around Theresa May to give her some

support and say, we understand, we kind of get it, we see just how bad

this is for you. But this week we have also had this photograph of her

sitting alone at that table covered with lilies. Somebody tweeted that

this looks like the biggest coffin in the world that she is sitting

next to. That is a bit how this can sometimes feel. We may know what

we're leaving but we don't know what we are going to. And we don't know a

timetable. We are talking about whether or not we can get to the

business whereby we can begin to discuss properly the transitional

deal, which we might have in order to get us back to a deal with no --

we have no idea what it will be. Brexit means Brexit. That is it.

Theresa May has assured us that she knows the direction. Genuinely, was

there not something of a shift this week? Are you saying it was purely

because they felt sorry for her because things are tricky

domestically? There are conciliatory noises from a lot of European

leaders that we have not heard before. Emmanuel Macron said that

the problem was that nobody has explained to the British people what

Brexit actually means. That is how incredibly sympathetic they all are.

The problem is that the fundamentals do not change on this. They are not

going to change. When we are trying to look at the end deal, we could

have maybe a transitional deal which we could agree after agreeing the

money and so on, but we have no idea what we are going to do about

Ireland, which is the third aspect of this. But absolutely the European

Union and reiterated time and time again the four freedoms are

indivisible. You can't have the same access to the single market that you

used to have membership effectively of, unless you have significantly

signed up to freedom of movement. If that is the sticking point, that

will put us outside the mechanisms of the single market, and that is so

economically damaging for us. There are Brexiteers carefully counting

our words to find out who is pro-Brexit and who is not, because

they are preparing further we were betrayed scenario, with the wicked

BBC playing their part. Count me in. I'm doing the bad thing. I'm selling

the country. Is it such a desperate state of affairs that the fact we

think they could be getting close to negotiations is seen as a shift,

positive momentum? That is part of this position. It is not about being

pro macro -- pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit. It is such a difficult

situation UK has put itself in. Brexit is Brexit. This is happening.

Let's find out how to negotiate a way. That is the only single shift.

The sinking in that this is going to happen. Even though there are still

voices that say we could not have the Brexit. They are the minority.

This notion that things are certainly better and the sun is

coming out on these negotiations, there is a sense she is such a lame

duck Prime Minister, that if we kick her now, and she falls, could they

enter up with Boris Johnson or someone worse? In Brussels and

elsewhere they are saying, we better be careful here. In a position of

power but we can't keep feeding on her because it could get worse. Do

you think they care that much about British domestic politics? I think

there have to understand consequence. It is pretty clear that

far from being the iron Lady, she's the hollow lady, and she is in

charge. Another election or another leadership race in the Tory party

could lead to unknown consequences. And those consequences inevitably

have ripples in Europe. They have all the aces in their hands. They

don't need to play them all right now. I'm giving her some leveraged.

The head of Goldman Sachs really through some oil on the fire this

week with a little playful tweet from Frankfurt saying, quite nicely

and I think I'll be spending a lot more time here. Not the first time

banks have done that kind of thing? No. We now know that 13,000

high-paying jobs from the financial district of London are leaving

London. Goldman Sachs has 6000 employees in London. They are

talking about moving a thousand. This is a real consequence. Those

jobs and other jobs will fail, too. These are real consequences. I grew

up in Canada in the 1970s during the Quebec independence movement. That

is when the bank of Montreal moved to Toronto. Its head office. You are

going to see consequences to uncertainty. Quebec Nehra left but

Montreal is still paying. I see parallels. I would like to say

something about what you said first. The European Union is worried about

the domestic issues in the United Kingdom. But right now the European

Union, I think that they are going to focus on the interest from the

European Union, because from their perspective it's like, OK, the

United Kingdom once Brexit, so we try to have the best deal. -- wants.

It is very important in this line to remember Emmanuel Macron's sentenced

this week about how we are halfway close to this financial settlement

that he says is the key part to go for the second phase and discuss.

Obviously they are on the way to have disagreement. But they are not

going to accept anything in order to avoid internal crisis or domestic

situation in the United Kingdom. Briefly on that point, is it still

an ardent fundamentally about the divorce Bill? I know we have talked

about this a long time, but... We will probably settle the amount of

money in the next few months. They are not telling us what the amount

actually is so that the Brexiteers in the Tory party don't get to whine

about it. But that's all. This isn't 1% of what Brexit actually means.

Resolving that may unlock quite a lot. Doesn't resolve anything. It

just means you will move onto the next phase. It's like one of those

ridiculous computer games. You do move onto the next phase. We have to

leave that topic. We will be talking about it again. We will see how much

has moved on next time. So the Syrian city of Raqqa has

finally been wrested from the grasp of so-called Islamic State,

by the US-backed alliance of Kurdish-Arab Syrian

Democratic Forces. More than 3,000 bombs have fallen

on the city this year, devastating The United Nations has warned that

around 300,000 people who've fled have "enormous

needs" in nearby camps. Mina, from your vantage point

in the Gulf, is this the beginning Well, the beginning of the end of

Isis perhaps. And that follows after the Battle of Mosul. This week was

the one year anniversary since the Battle of Mosul was launched to

liberate the biggest holding of Isis in Iraq. Now you have the same in

Syria. In that sense it is an important moment. But if we are

talking about the war in Syria, the war in Syria was never about Isis.

Isis became a by-product. If you go back to the root causes of what

happens -- happened in Syria, it continues and is is even worse. We

have Turkish troops in Idlib. Iraq has militia all over Syria and have

now got a stronghold in Damascus and the surrounding area. The parties

that are there and armed continue and are strengthened. And we are

nowhere near a political resolution to try to at least preserve lives in

Syria. I think Raqqa is a moment to take stock. But it is not this

victory were we can see Syria coming together again. What is devastating

as you do have 300,000 civilians living on sheer terror in Raqqa.

There isn't much sympathy for ordinary people who need shelter,

need to be taken care of. They are barely now getting some of the

international humanitarian organisations and the UN delivering

the most basic foodstuffs. That is nowhere near a resolution. And

because you still have got at its heart all the different interests at

play in Syria not seeing eye to eye, you don't see this as a moment of

Silverline in and we can move forward. You are absolutely right.

If you saw be devastating droll images of Ragot, there is no city.

It is a place on a map. It is an important milestone but we shouldn't

overstated. Where is the plan to rebuild? Where is the consensus and

how these people are going to rebuild their lives? And if they

don't, the problem that led to the rise of Isis is still there. That is

a very good point. You may know better, after Mosul fell, the

cameras moved on and we have not been back. We should now pay a bit

of attention to what is happening in Mosul. There is a supposedly unitary

government for Iraq. The target -- Kurdish problem notwithstanding. You

have got literally trenches being dog because you are thinking the

Kurds and Arabs may face off. For example, Mosul has lost Internet

connection because they were connected to Kirkuk. Hardly any

water is reaching people. The scale of the problem is so huge, you have

got just under a million people not knowing what happens next. You are

right in that we really have to look back and say, how are people's lies

being rebuilt? This unitary government is facing such pressure

with this ill-advised referendum that is happening. That is not

discussing whether the Kurds should have a state of their own, but they

are pushing forward. In Raqqa, you have the SDF, the majority of the

leadership are Kurds. Raqqa is a predominantly Arab city. The fight

that was there is nothing to do with the PKK. It antagonises the Turks.

You have all these different identities and believes crashing

together and nobody is seeing how we're going to build a future

together. In Raqqa, to put that inflammatory image up to say that

the Kurds are getting ready for their federal state in Syria and

Iraq, only means that the weapons we used against Isis can be turned on

other people. It is important to note that Isis still has a

significant presence in Afghanistan and Syria. The idea that Isis is

dead, it would be premature to announce that. One of the biggest

worries right now is what happens after the defeat in Raqqa. There are

a lot of questions about what is going to happen if foreign fighters

in Isis are returned to their original countries. I don't know if

Ragot will have I direct consequence in terms of this thread in Europe.

-- Raqqa. In terms of people fighting for IS coming back to the

UK, America etc? They should never have been allowed to fight in a

place with such a security vacuum. The onus really is on Turkey in

large part. How are they going to cross over? There is a sense of

concern about the return of foreign fighters. This is why you need more

intelligence co-operation rather than a breakdown of relationships,

in order to track those people and hold them. We also saw deals being

done where you had Isis fighters in bosses being transported to other

parts of the country where deals would have been done by outside

countries try to protect those they see can serve another purpose.

Unless countries are held to account to any passing of foreign fighters,

we are in a lot of trouble. Who is this? Where does this start? Whose

responsibility is this? The Americans are on the ground. They

have soldiers inside. You have got Kurdish fighters getting direct

support from the West. You have got the Iraqi government that is an

internationally recognised. Everybody is concerned about the

Iranian nuclear deal. Nobody is asking what they are doing about the

militia and what is happening in Kirkuk, militia been backed by Iran.

You have got turkey that has been instrumental in terms of the border

going back and forth. It is more controlled today. But they could do

much more. You've got Interpol. We do have international mechanisms. It

drives me crazy that Isis is seen as a bogeyman that can out with all of

those I have just talked about. There is no way. There has to be

some kind of complacency if not worse. There was a significant

warning put out by our security services in the past couple of weeks

that the threat level in the United Kingdom, which must have something

to do with their perception of returning people from the Middle

East. Listening to people close to discussing it, I think there is

quite a sophisticated understanding that there are different motivations

in different people coming from there. I think you are right,

actually. Although we feel, for obvious reasons, in the

international dimension of things, the issue of returned fighters is a

relatively small one given the other risks in the region right now, which

are so complicated for us and which we in the West play a significant

role in. It is quite hard to compute. I think I'm going to be

reading your newspaper from now on! I hope you do. We promise to distil

all of this and try to tackle it. Not wanting to pre-empt violence,

but how does Islamic State respond noted losing Raqqa? After Mosul they

tried to have several attacks in the West in order to maintain their rain

of terror. There's strength comes from being able to terrorise. They

are going to attempt large-scale attacks or even small-scale attacks

to show they still exist. The leadership of Isis it continues to

be unknown where they are. They will try to put out voice messages to say

they still exist. Isis has become a franchise. In Libya we don't know if

there is a direct command of control between Isis out of Libya and Raqqa.

We go back to the point of social media. They use of Internet. As long

as more effort I put in to clamp down their ability to send out that

message, hopefully their influence can be pulled down. They thought

they could declare a caliphate. That was always a lie. It no longer

exists in terms of territory. That is why security vacuum is from

failed states cannot allow that might be allowed to continue. As

long as we don't deal with the root causes, we will have these ongoing

battles. Thank you very much for -- to all of you. Fascinating

discussions. See you again. That's all we have

time for this week. Do join us again next week same

time, same place, but for now thank Hello. Storm Brian is sweeping

across the British Isles today. Very windy for some. Occasionally wet. Is

will complete its journey across the