13/01/2018 Dateline London


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13/01/2018

Foreign correspondents currently posted to London look at events in the UK through outsiders' eyes, and at how the issues of the week are being tackled around the world.


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LineFromTo

Hello, and a very warm

welcome to Dateline London.

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This week we discuss the future

of the Iranian nuclear deal,

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as President Trump says he'll

tolerate it for just a few more

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months.

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What impact will that

have inside the country,

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where xxx are in prison?

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And as two key British Cabinet

ministers made Brexit pleas

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in Germany, was anyone

in the EU listening?

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My guests this week: the French

journalist Agnes Poirier,

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from the magazine Marrianne,

the American writer and broadcaster

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Jeffrey Kofman, the Iranian writer,

broadcaster, and journalist

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Amir Taheri, and the British

political commentator

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and writer Adam Raphael.

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Welcome to you all.

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The Iran nuclear deal survives,

at least for a few more months.

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President Trump has declared

he will extend sanctions relief

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for Iran just once more,

giving European countries

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what he called 'a last chance'

to fix 'terrible flaws'

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in the 2015 deal.

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For example, the White House wants

signatories to agree permanent

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restrictions on Iran's uranium

enrichment - currently they expire

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in a sunset clause in 2025.

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And the administration has announced

14 new targeted sanctions

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against individuals and entities.

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Amir, all other signatories say

this deal is working,

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... So what does this stance from

President Trump mean, do you think?

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Years trying to link the deal to two

other issues, one being the missile

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programme, which is mentioned in the

United Nations resolution but not in

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the deal. Don't forget that the deal

is just a verbal deal, nobody signed

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it. Nobody is really legally

committed to it. It is just a

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political move. The second thing is,

he wants to leak it -- link it to

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human rights, which is why the

Iranian Chief justice has been

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sanctioned under the new decision by

President Trump. He has made some

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headway with President Macron of

France, who has also mentioned these

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two issues will stop the idea is to

force Iran continue negotiations for

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a new package so that the nuclear

issue is not treated in isolation.

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The idea is that you cannot have a

regime behaving differently, to be

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nice on the nuclear issue but bad on

the missile issue and the human

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rights issue, holding 36 Western

hostages, for example, without

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charging most of them. There is a

package of problem, and I think if

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Trump succeeds, it would need a run

to solve all of that problem. It is

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a country with a lot of problems

with the outside world, and it is

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wise to tackle all of them together.

Jeffrey, is President Trump saying

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this because of all the factors that

Amir is highlighting? Or is it also

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a visceral reaction to a deal that

was signed under President Obama?

It

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is clear that it is the latter.

These are complex issues that take a

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lot of study. We know he is not a

man who likes to study. These are

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gut reaction. It is, they are bad,

Obama like them, therefore I don't.

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There is no chess, this is checkers.

The people around him agree that

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this is one foreign policy area

where they seem united.

There is a

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consensus that Iran has got away

with a lot, that there has been

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kowtowing to them to try to

accommodate, and I think there is a

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sense that Iran needs to be held to

account, which is why there is some

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support for this. The complexity of

this, and when you add in the

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demonstrations we have seen in a run

in the last months or weeks, that

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come in conservative areas, they add

a layer of complexity that makes it

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more difficult to navigate this.

When Iran says it will respond

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forcefully to any attempts to get it

to negotiate something new, what

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does that mean? What is your take?

It doesn't mean anything, it's just

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bragging and sabre rattling, because

Iran is really in a very weak

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position at the moment. The trick

that the Americans are playing, and

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let's now do a bit of Trump bashing.

I don't think Trump understands the

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situation. But the American

administration is making a comeback,

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regardless of Trump. Grip it is a

little too soft. The fact is, he was

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America acting unilaterally. All the

European powers are horrified by

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what is going on. --

it is a little

too soft. You cannot hope to be the

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leader of the Western world if you

behave in the way that America is

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doing. Outside the missile deal and

what have you, there is the whole

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situation in the Middle East. Of

course, I can understand why

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Europeans and Americans are worried

by Iran's role in Syria, in Yemen.

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There was a whole series, but the

way to approach it is surely not in

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the sort of incredibly blunt,

aggressive way, ignoring all his

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allies. I'm a little worried by your

soft approach to Trump here.

I don't

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want to participate in Trump

bashing. I don't care about Trump.

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What I am saying is that he has not

acted unilaterally. He has renewed

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the suspension of sanctions. So far,

he hasn't done anything.

He has

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given 120 days.

He is free to

suggest, and he is suggesting, let's

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bring a package of issues we have

with Iran, and instead of parking

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them on one side because we want to

fudge the issue, let's face them. It

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is good for Iran, too, because Iran

has not benefited from this deal at

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all, contrary to what people think.

With his 120 day deadline, what do

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the European signatories do now?

What is their response?

They think

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there is no better alternative to

this agreement that was so long in

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the making, in the preparing. If

Trump and the American

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administration was so authentically

genuine about actually making it

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better, because the issues, as you

very well said, are complex, and

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there are other questions to be

debated. It should be done behind

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closed doors, as it had been done.

It is a question for diplomacy. The

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25 countries that participated, it

took about 10-15 years to get to the

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point with Iran that we reached, and

then suddenly, there is all this

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bragging, as you are saying, which

is so counter-productive, especially

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when you are dealing with Iran. If

we want to take it further, why not?

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It is not by behaving...

He hasn't

done anything.

He has given this

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ultimatum or four months.

Because an

ultimatum is a diplomatic term. It

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must be done through diplomatic

channels. He has said, this may be

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the last time I signed it.

That

doesn't sound like an ultimatum?

You

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have to have a back-up plan.

Now I

become the defender of Trump!

It's

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not the intention. We want your

analysis.

I have nothing to do with

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Trump or anything, I am Iranian. He

is suggesting that Iran is the cause

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of many problems.

We don't deny

that!

To that point, then... What

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could change inside Iran?

As I said,

Macron has agreed. The British at

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the moment our row because they are

obsessed with Brexit. The Italians

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have no Government, nor do the

Germans. So, he is saying, let's

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bring in run to the negotiating

table. About the Middle East, the

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intervention in other Arab

countries, support for terrorism,

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holding Western hostages. All these

things, and it would be good for

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Iran, too. Once the underbrush is

cleared, then they can really lift

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sanctions on Iran. They haven't

lifted sanctions on Iran. The

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Iranian embassy in London cannot

open a bank account in London. It is

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forced to pay its staff in cash. Did

you realise that? This is what Trump

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is saying. You say you don't like

it, Trump is crazy, he is a sexual

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predator or whatever...

That is not

what we're here to discuss. Will it

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help ordinary people in Iran? We

talked a lot about the protests, a

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lot of it to do with the economy,

several thousand people still

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imprisoned, perhaps more. To your

point, what could what could benefit

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the very young population, all those

people who don't have a job, those

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fundamentals of life, how could that

change?

The problem with Iran is

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that you have two countries. It is

Iran is a revolution, and Iran as a

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nation state. One day, Iran must

decide to become a nation again and

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not be a vehicle for exporting

revolution. In that case, Iran has

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no problem with anybody. It is the

only country in the Middle East with

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defined borders, the only one. The

only country in the Middle East that

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has not been at war with anybody for

400 years, apart from the Iraqi

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invasion. We have no problem with

anybody. The problem we have is

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because we want to make the rest of

the Middle East... We don't share a

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border or compete over markets or

access to raw materials. We have 2

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million Iranians living in the

United States. We always had good

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relations with them, but we have

become the number one enemy of the

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United States because of the

revolutionary side of us. Israel

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have been our friends for ever,

since we freed the Jews, and now we

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have become enemies of Israel. I

never heard anybody say anything bad

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about Jews in Iran, and there is no

anti-Semitism in Iran, and now we

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become the most anti-Israeli. This

doesn't represent a run. If it can't

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come back as a nation, with its

culture, history, resources, its 80

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million population, it would be a

fantastic thing for everybody.

There

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will be an enormous Twitter debate

about all of this, but we will be

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coming back in future, for sure.

There is more to discuss this week,

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and we must move on. We already

mentioned Brexit. You can't ignore

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it this week.

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Two British Cabinet ministers

who stayed in place after this

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week's Government reshuffle headed

to Germany midweek to make

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separate pleas about Brexit.

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The Chancellor, Philip Hammond,

and the Secretary of State

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for Exiting the EU, David Davis,

urged their respective

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audiences to remember

the importance of London's

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financial services sector.

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They told a German newspaper it

makes no sense to put in place

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unnecessary barriers to trade

after Britain has left the EU.

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Agnes, Britain seems to want

a bespoke trade deal,

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was anyone listening?

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Agnes, they certainly give the sense

that Britain might want a bespoke

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deal. Do you think anyone in Germany

was listening this because Mike

they

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were pretty busy in Germany this

week. I don't know why they chose

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that particular week to go. And it

was supposed to be a three-day charm

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offensive. That was a hell of a

three-day charm offensive, because

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they ended up telling the German

newspapers that EU leaders should

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not want to continue punishing, that

they were paranoid and backward

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looking.

They said, remember the

financial crisis, and we don't want

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another one, therefore it behoves

all European countries to remain as

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one in terms of financial services.

Philip Hammond said something new,

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which is bewildering, but at least

it's something new to bring to the

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Brexit debate, saying, actually, it

is for Europe to make an offer, to

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tell us what you can bring to the

table. It is not necessarily for

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Britain to tell you, Europe, what we

want. Then it is what we call a

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conversation between deaf and mute

people. The German business leaders

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they met in Berlin said, hang on a

minute, we don't know what Britain

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wants. One day, it is a Norway-

style agreement, another time it is

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Canada plus, plus, plus, trade

agreement with financial services.

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They would say they did go to

Germany knowing what they wanted -

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stability in financial services, one

of the things that brings the most

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money into the UK.

It is key to the

British economy, but then Michel

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Barnier, who is the face and voice

of the 27 EU member states, for the

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moment, he said that the City of

London and the banks operating there

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will lose their passporting writes.

That hasn't changed, so now it is a

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question for the British Government

and therefore the Tory Party to come

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together and decide what they want

in order to have just one line will

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stop they go to Brussels and say,

OK, this is the kind of agreement.

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It is a total mess, isn't it? The

new thing is that we now seem to be

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willing to pay to secure additional

rights for our financial services,

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so we would have to pay a financial

penalty. Whether any of this can be

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sold in the British Parliament or to

the British people, I have no idea.

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But it is a fantastic mess. What is

interesting to me is that, day by

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day, reality begins to intrude into

these negotiations. So, the French

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are only too keen to take over our

financial services. I can see Mr

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Macron rubbing his hands at this

very moment. The fact is, this

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country, it's not mad, in my view,

never has been and won't be now, and

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the Conservative Party, in theory,

should represent the interests of

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business. That is what it has

traditionally been about. Bad

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business won't put up with the sort

of line that the Conservative Party

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now appears to be destined for. I

think the party will have to start

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adjusting, and indeed the parliament

and the Prime Minister, we are going

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to go in for a most fantastic up. I

am pessimistic about what is going

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on.

What does that mean, what will

they do? Will it be business coming

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back and saying, we need clarity

because we can't plan without it?

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Agnes makes a good point because

there is no clarity in the

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Government or unity in the

Conservative Party. Until they can

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reach an agreed view, it is

impossible to put forward an agreed

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position. We really are in a mess

here, and I can understand the

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irritability, and indeed the

impatience, of our European

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partners, former partners, with the

British position. And it is caused

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by a political crisis within the

Government. It is so easy to muddle

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up the Conservative Party and the

nation, but they are to separate

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things. If you talk to

conservatives, they regard them as

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the same, and that is one of the

real problem is that we face.

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Somehow, the Tory Party has got to

sort itself out, and it's got to

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actually begin to realise what it is

about and what can unify it.

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Otherwise, we are in a total mess. I

am very pessimistic.

I sometimes

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have that pessimism. Sometimes, I

wonder if this is just the

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disorganised chaos of the political

process. Sometimes, when we are in

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the midst of these kind of storms,

you think, my gosh, it is going to

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hell in a hand basket, but this is

often how politics works, and it

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takes this kind of brinkmanship,

uncertainty and bargaining can

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sometimes lead to a resolution. The

concern is that we have just over a

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year to resolve this.

Less than that

- October, because you have a

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six-month ratification process. We

are talking until October.

This

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autumn.

Yes.

There are two other

teams that Kaymer. One is that the

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pound went to its highest level the

referendum. It was $1.37. Something

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like that. Partly in response to

apparent statements, or indications,

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from France and Holland... Spain,

pardon me. That they would be open

0:18:140:18:21

to a soft Brexit, which somehow

encouraged the markets here and gave

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business sense that there may be a

way out. Then this very unexpected

0:18:250:18:29

comment from Nigel Farage, saying,

maybe we should have a second

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referendum, which I think really is

extraordinary, the idea that the man

0:18:340:18:38

who really initiated this whole

momentum now wants to go back to the

0:18:380:18:45

people, potentially, for another

one. Me thinks it has to do more

0:18:450:18:49

with him than with Brexit, now that

his own contact in the White House,

0:18:490:18:55

Steve Bannon, has been brushed aside

and he has to find a new role in

0:18:550:18:58

life. There are so many currents

now, and it does become incredibly

0:18:580:19:06

difficult to wonder whether this

will lead to something stable, or

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whether we will count these days

down and still be talking in this

0:19:090:19:13

disorganised fashion.

I want to pick

up on something that you were saying

0:19:130:19:20

about the Conservative Party. We had

a reshuffle this week that was quite

0:19:200:19:24

extraordinary, and you talk to

people at Westminster all the time.

0:19:240:19:29

International viewers who didn't

follow it, we had a Health Secretary

0:19:290:19:32

who apparently was going to be given

another job and managed to persuade

0:19:320:19:36

the Prime Minister not only to stay

in this job but to add another title

0:19:360:19:41

to it. Another cabinet minister who

was told she was going somewhere

0:19:410:19:45

else dug her heels in, spent three

hours in Downing Street and came out

0:19:450:19:49

on the backbenches instead. What

does this tell us about Theresa

0:19:490:19:53

May's authority, how much of it was

tied up with Brexit? It has been an

0:19:530:19:58

extraordinary week.

Shambolic is the

only thing you can make of this

0:19:580:20:06

reshuffle. Normally it is a time of

the utmost prime ministerial power.

0:20:060:20:10

Unfortunately, this one, I don't

know, really... She's badly served

0:20:100:20:13

by some of the people around her.

There appears to be no proper

0:20:130:20:18

preparation for a reshuffle. The

idea that somehow... Jeremy Pied has

0:20:180:20:24

been a close colleague of hers for

over five years. And for longer than

0:20:240:20:28

that. She must have known exactly

where his position was, or she

0:20:280:20:31

should have done. The idea that

somehow, coal, on the day, he says,

0:20:310:20:38

I'm digging in, just this total lack

of preparation, so you feel that it

0:20:380:20:42

is unprofessional, but she doesn't

have the skills to manage her party,

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that she is very, very weak indeed,

and she is only propped up there

0:20:490:20:53

because they can't agree between

themselves, the Tory Party at the

0:20:530:20:56

moment because they have in such

crisis, on who should be her

0:20:560:20:59

successor. I Tim Jeffery's point

that politics often does seem to be

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a very convoluted, fractional fell,

and in the end it all resolves

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itself. We are going through a

period of politics in this country

0:21:090:21:15

which is really unusual, and yes,

there may be a resolution at the end

0:21:150:21:18

of the day, but my goodness, it will

be difficult to get to.

The view

0:21:180:21:23

from the consulate of Britain is

sadness. This reshuffle is

0:21:230:21:28

shambolic, but it feels as if we

should send a rescue mission to

0:21:280:21:34

Downing Street. Here is a political

prisoner who is trapped by her own

0:21:340:21:41

troops was not send the SAS! Do

something. But it's sad, in the end.

0:21:410:21:46

We can laugh, but it's sad, because

as a result, Britain is in a state

0:21:460:21:50

of paralysis.

All right.

0:21:500:21:53

We can't leave without discussing

the enormous offence he has

0:21:530:21:56

caused with comments made

during a bi-partisan Oval Office

0:21:560:21:58

meeting about immigration laws.

0:21:580:22:03

Donald Trump himself

denies using the offensive

0:22:030:22:05

word beginning with S,

though concedes the language

0:22:050:22:07

he used to describe

various African countries,

0:22:070:22:08

and others, was 'tough'.

0:22:090:22:11

Jeffrey, the UN didn't say

the language was tough,

0:22:110:22:16

they said it was racist.

0:22:160:22:21

Jane, are you putting me in a

position of using a word on the BBC

0:22:210:22:27

that... ?

Entirely your choice!

I

don't know what the censors think

0:22:270:22:33

about it. This is the President of

the United States. I did not think I

0:22:330:22:36

would have to repeat this word on

air as a journalist. He called these

0:22:360:22:44

countries the word beginning with S.

It is so deeply offensive. Whatever

0:22:440:22:51

you think of the man, it is

unthinkable that you can defend that

0:22:510:22:54

kind of talk from a world leader. I

think it is also offensive when you

0:22:540:23:01

think of the tradition of America,

give us your poor, your tired, your

0:23:010:23:05

huddled masses. Let's be honest,

most of America was settled from

0:23:050:23:09

countries that were at the time...

Could have been described with the

0:23:090:23:14

same word. Whether it be the

European countries in the 19th

0:23:140:23:18

century or just after the war,

Ireland in the 19th-century - these

0:23:180:23:22

countries were, by Donald Trump's

definition, much the same. That is

0:23:220:23:26

what has built the great country. So

it is just mind-numbing to know how

0:23:260:23:32

to respond.

We are used to a year of

bellicose language from Donald

0:23:320:23:37

Trump, to his extraordinary use of

social media in the small hours of

0:23:370:23:40

morning - should we be surprised or

is there something more worrying

0:23:400:23:46

about it?

First of all, Trump denies

having said that.

That precise word.

0:23:460:23:53

He said he used tough language, but

there are multiple people who were

0:23:530:23:57

in the room.

You have to give him

the benefit of the doubt.

I think

0:23:570:24:02

not, because a Democratic senator

was there.

So we give the Democratic

0:24:020:24:08

senator the benefit of the doubt.

Those who know American language

0:24:080:24:16

know that this is S word is part of

the routine vocabulary of Americans,

0:24:160:24:20

but when it comes to foreigners,

including the Portuguese

0:24:200:24:25

secretary-general of the UN, sounds

terrible. The French, Germans and

0:24:250:24:33

other countries have certain words.

Except the president doesn't say

0:24:330:24:38

that word.

It is part of the

language of daily life, and American

0:24:380:24:43

literature is full of capital F

words and capital S words.

He has

0:24:430:24:51

form in this area, when he described

racist in South Carolina, saying

0:24:510:25:01

there was a fault on both sides. He

comes with form.

I don't want to

0:25:010:25:07

defend Trump. It is none of my

business. I am saying that we have

0:25:070:25:11

to put things in context, and I am

against ideas that become

0:25:110:25:17

fashionable. A fashionable idea is

to hit Trump, so I'm against it. If

0:25:170:25:22

tomorrow the fashionable idea is...

It is not fashion, it is fact. We

0:25:220:25:26

have the president of the free

world. It is absolute indignity

0:25:260:25:31

personified. I think we should stop

talking about him until the American

0:25:310:25:35

people remove him from power in a

peaceful, democratic way.

That is

0:25:350:25:41

their business.

It is not fair to

dismiss this as fashionable. What he

0:25:410:25:46

did was to dismiss... He used that

word against El Salvador, Haiti and

0:25:460:25:52

Africa, and said, we need more

Norwegians. That is, by any

0:25:520:25:57

definition, a white supremacist

agenda of, we need more Scandinavian

0:25:570:26:02

- looking people, fewer of those

others. When you reduce this to what

0:26:020:26:06

it really means, that is what he was

saying.

Gentlemen, ladies, we will

0:26:060:26:12

leave our largely civilised

discussion there. Nice to see you

0:26:120:26:16

all again.

0:26:160:26:17

That's all we have

time for this week.

0:26:170:26:19

Do join us again next week -

same time, same place.

0:26:190:26:21

But for now, thank you for

watching, and goodbye.

0:26:210:26:25