North West Results Election 2017

Their share of the vote was down, reflecting the swing

Coming up in Election 2017 in the North West:

Labour cheers as Bury, High Peak, Crewe, Warrington and Weaver Vale

I've been in this hall a bit too often on the wrong

Tory tears as they loses four seats to Labour

And last man standing - the Lib Dem leader clings

on in Cumbria, but loses his last local colleague.

And still standing after a long night, or joining me

on the sofa at least, are two local politicians heading

Lucy Powell successfully defended her Manchester Central seat,

and Nigel Evans will be extending his 25-year stint

Also with us is Jon Tonge, Professor of Politics

we will start with you, Lucy. Are you surprised?

Yes, I am actually, and I think everybody is. I am pleased and

delighted to be surprised, because not what we were expecting. But also

the doorstep experience was different to the result in the end,

and perhaps that's because, and I was thinking through the night,

because on the doorstep we generally speak to slightly older voters.

OK. So you maybe get a wrong impression,

but the doorstep actually felt quite difficult most of the way to the

campaign and got easier as the campaign went on, but on the day as

well we were in Bury South and it felt difficult by the end.

Completely different. Nigel, you must have been thinking

through the night as well. Did you see this coming at all?

No, not at all. Into the whys and wherefores

later... In the end, right to have a bit of

wheel rim... And we were knocking on doors talking to more older people

and Echo seats, targeted for us, we would win, but 1000, maybe by 1000,

but it wasn't to be in the end. And we helped Lucy considerably by the

launch of what was known as our own torpedo, which would put upon

ourselves. We will get into the talk.

The Conservative manifesto. And you, an expert.

One of the experts saw it coming. They thought Conservatives would

have a majority between 35 and 45, so I was as stunned as everyone by

the exit poll. Messages on Wednesday night saying Labour had given up on

places like Bury South, on the assumption was it would be a

disaster. Could not have been more wrong. A disaster for political

science as well as for the Conservatives.

Let's take a look at the overall picture here in the north-west:

So, Labour made gains in Bury North, Crewe, High Peak, Weaver Vale

and Warrington South to move from 49 to 54 seats.

So, five Conservative losses but they gained Southport

from the Liberal Democrats and now have 17.

That means the Liberal Democrats now have just one -

their leader Tim Farron just keeping hold of Westmorland and Lonsdale.

Here's how the map of the north-west's 72

Look closely and you'll see more red,

particularly to the south, around Cheshire,

Well, I was in Bury, where the Conservative David Nuttall

lost his seat and Labour's Ivan Lewis held on to his.

Let's see how events unfolded there and across the region.

One of the new faces that will be representing

James Frith was chasing a majority of less than 400 -

now he has his own of more than ten times that amount, leaving two

It feels amazing, but actually quite seriously amazing.

Look, we never expected to be here three months ago.

I'm absolutely delighted that we got an opportunity to take our offer

Well, tables being taken down in Bury, where it's fair to say both

seats can be seen as a surprise, and a microcosm of the wider

Bury North the Conservatives were expecting to keep,

to make gains, and in Bury South the Labour Party were worried

Perhaps Labour's most surprising results came in Cheshire.

Warrington South, a Government minister scuppered.

It's hello, Faizal Rashid, and goodbye, David Mowatt.

We were hoping to win nationally, and obviously I was hoping

to win here in Warrington, but we've had an election,

Jeremy Corbyn had spent the last day of campaigning

Conservative since 2005, now Labour has a majority of almost 4,000.

The conversation on the doorsteps with real people in the real

communities of Weaver Vale wasn't just solely about Brexit.

It was about the cuts to schools and the fears about losing teachers

It was a similar story in High Peak and Crewe and Nantwich -

And Chester had been the Conservatives' number one

Bruce Matheson increased his majority elevenfold.

Labour was left delighted in Lancashire, too.

Cat Smith got the cream, increasing her tiny majority fivefold.

John Woodcock had resigned himself to defeat in Barrow and distanced

I have no idea, and I'm not sure that anyone you will have

on this programme actually, genuinely has an idea

either, and if they say that they do, I think

because, as you say, there have been absolutely

A bad night for his neighbour, Tim Farron, a national party leader

The Conservatives could barely believe it,

Liberal Democrats since '97, now Tory.

The north-west typified the national picture -

one of surprise, delight and despair.

Who on the 18th of April could have predicted this?

We certainly didn't. Joining us is one of the Labour gains, Mike

Amesbury who took Weaver Vale in Cheshire, good morning to you.

Congratulations. What was the secret and how did you win?

I think the secret was we put forward a manifesto which was a

manifesto of hope and opportunity. It inspired so many people, but in

particular young people. There was a fear that despite good intentions

young people would not turn out, but they did in my constituency

certainly not only to vote but actually to help. I was inundated

with volunteers. You campaign tactically? They do

indirectly for your young people who had not voted?

No, no, not just that. We certainly did want to engage young people that

had not voted before. But there was as well a broad coalition of voters.

With a shared goal of, well, you know, let's change the story and

change the narrative. People are tired of cuts and the story of

austerity. Let's have some open opportunity, and indeed our

manifesto was popular in my constituency and fully costed of

course. Lot of Labour MPs or former Labour

MPs before the election seeking to distance themselves from Jeremy

Corbyn, so has he been vindicated? He has clearly been vindicated,

clearly. We have made 29 gains. People certainly in my constituency

and beyond, particularly young people, have been inspired by the

agenda forward. But of course we out campaigned in Weaver Vale the

Conservatives. They approach this with an incredible arrogance, and in

fact the snap election in the first place, you know, with the focus

solely on Brexit... Whereas conversations on the doorstep were

bread-and-butter issues, local schools and cuts and the fact people

can't get GP appointments. And the lack of police presence on the

streets. And they did not even have that conversation, and indeed make

Tory opponent, the former MP, he seemed so complacent in terms of

campaigning. OK, many thanks and congratulations.

Enjoy yourself and get some sleep. Thank you.

Let's start with that point, Nigel, incredible arrogance on the

doorstep. Is that what you felt? That the manifesto to Conservative

voters for granted? Yes, but the manifesto was the worst

I have ever seen in 25 years of being a Member of Parliament. We

shot ourselves in the foot. We did a triple assault on our core voters,

the elderly. Quite frankly, that is all I heard on the doorstep for many

days. We were not talking about Labour Party's policies in their

manifesto, but trying to justify our own. And whoever was responsible for

putting that in the manifesto quite frankly should be ashamed. And I

hear Nick Timothy's name being mentioned as the adviser in charge

of looking at this policy, so what was that in our manifesto? ! It

should never have been there. And we were talking about taking away kits'

ledgers and replacing them with Brexit and fox hunting... -- taking

away the breakfasts of kids and replacing them with Brexit and fox

hunting. People wanted to know about the health service and education,

and a lot of people when you offer them free university education, they

will vote for it. But they still gained more seats,

son of a total disaster... The Labour Party have not won this

election, though it may feel like that.

That is because elections are often about expectations coming in and

where you are at, so the key point is that it was an election we did

not need to have. Theresa May called it and she called that because she

wanted to massively increase her majority, and she thought that the

Labour Party was vulnerable, and early on after this had first been

called there were warning signs that we might go down to 100 seats or

something. It is all relative. There is no ticking away from the fact

that this is an absolutely terrible, terrible result for Theresa May.

Little to the point of Mike, looking to the future, Jeremy Corbyn...

We did get it wrong Jeremy Corbyn, and I said that, and I am really

glad that we got it wrong, because it is the people who were out there,

who I was talking to, who were really worried about the cuts to

school budgets and worried about police cuts in Manchester...

And that's what I found out and about talking to voters, it was not

the Brexit election. It can go to other issues like austerity and the

NHS, is that what one more seat for Labour in the end?

Absolutely, the Labour manifesto was attractive, more money for the NHS

and free university tuition, and a lot of goodies in the manifesto,

with the Conservatives offering nothing. The other thing impressive

but Labour performance was not sticking photos from the

Conservatives, but those who voted Conservative in 2015 were unlikely

to vote for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. What Corbyn did was to

mobilise new voters. Turnout was up across the region and the percentage

of 18 to 24-year-olds who voted, who cynics said would not vote, they

voted in droves in the north-west yesterday, and they voted mostly for

Labour. A great success for Jeremy Corbyn, who has excited people. Tens

of thousands -- 10,000 people on West Kurdi Beach, energise the

Labour Party. They said the youngsters would not

turn out, and they were wrong. Another disappointing night

for the Liberal Democrats. They lost four of their six seats

two years ago and are now down to one after Southport went

to the Conservatives. Party leader, Tim Farron,

is the last man standing after clinging on to Westmorland

and Lonsdale - just. And they're generally

are not spot-on. If hopes of a fightback

for the Liberal Democrats had faded before election day,

the night would see Tim Farron remain as the party's sole

MP in the north-west. Yes, he held his seat

in Westmorland and Lonsdale, but only just,

with a greatly reduced majority We have a situation now

where hopefully, maybe, politicians may learn that calling

referendums and general elections to suit your party rather

than suiting the country In Southport, John Pugh had

stood down after 16 years. Conservative Damien Moore won 18,500

votes, a majority of almost 3,000. Liberal Democrat Sue McGuire came

third, the party's message on a second referendum appearing not

to prove popular. I think they saw it as an attempt

to revisit the referendum itself, rather than validate whatever

discussion that might come out Former MP for Cheadle Mark Hunter

had set his sights The Conservative Mary

Robinson held on. We did in fact increase our vote

here in Cheadle, but at the end of the day the Labour vote,

obviously, has been quite solid, and I'm afraid that,

in the end, deprived us Another former MP, John Leech,

also failed to win his seat back That left their leader to

cling on to successes elsewhere... Great results in Eastbourne, Bath,

Twickenham, Kingston, and joining us from Southport

is the outgoing Liberal Democrat MP John Pugh, who'd represented

the seat for 16 years. But also across the North West, for

the Liberal Democrats. Was Tim Farron wrong to push for a second EU

referendum when people think Brexit is done and dusted and out?

I think the mistake in the national campaign was to base a lot of our

general election approach around the issue of Brexit and our distinctive

stance on it. I agree with many of the other commentators on your

programme, on the doorstep people were not talking much about Brexit.

If they were talking about it they were largely critical of the stands

the party was taking rather than supportive. So I think we could have

offered a manifesto a hell of a lot better than the one we did. The

Labour manifesto... Could you not as the party have seen

that coming and that that back to Tim Farron that it was not what

people wanted? Nobody saw the election coming, and

Tim's approach towards Brexit is actually far more subtle than people

represent it as. But inevitably it appeared to many people as though

this was a call for yet another referendum. That is what you are

mainly campaigning on, if that is it, that will not win votes when

people are thinking about other issues like the NHS are like schools

and so on. Finally, John, does the Liberal

Democrat party now have a real challenge redefining itself?

It does, and I genuinely think we should have campaigner ages of

social inequality and social justice, far more than we did. We

are not essentially party of people who think about nothing but the EU,

in that aspect. All the best for the future and

banks. OK, thank you.

Was it a massive mistake? They did not when...

It was impossible to know what the Liberal Democrats to do because if

you campaign on issues like social justice can people saying they have

the Labour Party to do that, so I understand why Tim Farron would

target the 48% remain voters. Going over to the Labour Party... Tim

Farron's strategy but it backfired and it is humiliating for the

Liberal Democrats, they did not manage all stop and think the fact

that Vince Cable has been elected to parliament has put pressure on Tim

Farron because he did not really come across at all during the

campaign. What has not happened is Brexit is

in the spotlight more than ever. This was called for a mandate that

Theresa May could walk into Brussels with a firm hand and that has

disappeared. Where do we stand now? We are leading the EU and I think

that is accepted by the Labour Party as by my party as well, and

negotiations starting 11 days... There was some disagreement, but

even Ken Clarke had to accept the fact that we are leaving the

European Union, and it does not change the result of the referendum

their... But it changes the British image

going into negotiations. The fact is that it looks likely

there is going to be a Conservative Government, and Theresa May will be

the Prime Minister of that, she will lead those negotiations...

But for how long? Well, until we leave the European

Union, that is how I see it. Do you think she is entitled to stay

on as Prime Minister? Yes, and I am backing her, but there

has to be changes in recognition that had that manifesto being passed

by some of those people around her with grey hair, they may have said,

what the heck? I am not talking about me but other people within the

party and within the Cabinet, they would have looked up and said, not a

chance. That shouldn't be going in. So John is right. The Labour Party

seem to be offering everything, irrespective of whether it was

affordable, and we weren't offering all that much at all.

Is Nigel Wray to the Prime Minister, Lucy? Should you stay in her role?

Her position is untenable. She called the selection because she

wanted a stronger mandate... But instability.

Back depends on the Conservative Party to an extent and also the

mathematics in Parliament. We have got irresponsibility now, actually,

because I think the Labour Party did massively better than expectations,

but of course we did not win either. But we have a responsibility as well

to be a responsible opposition. Jeremy Corbyn...

I have said that, as in opposition, Jeremy Corbyn and all of us as MPs,

to be united together... Can I say... ? I am angry that we

have won this election not by a landslide but by 40 or 50... But we

did do incredibly well in Scotland and we did gain 43% of the vote, and

John, you could tell us what would normally happen when you get 43% of

the vote. Let's talk about Ukip, who also had

a miserable night. It was a miserable night for Ukip,

whose share of the vote plummeted. Their leader and North West MEP

Paul Nuttall failed in his bid Here, they lost huge

numbers of voters in places like Heywood and Middleton -

where they came so close in a byelection - probably

explaining his reluctance He did not want to talk to us. Down

to around 3% this time of the vote. Is that what is behind the seats

that long? Yes, there was a lazy assumption

that the Ukip vote would go to conservatives because the

Conservatives were hard Brexit. Edinger understand that assumption.

Yell at looking at the social profile of the average Ukip vote,

every chance the Labour vote could absorb some of those boards.

Ukip needs to pack up their tents, because there is no need for them.

But now the pasta was Brexit is uncertain because we have not

frankly got a Government. We may not have Theresa May is primitive. --

the path towards Brexit is uncertain. Conservatives have lost

their majority, so entitled to stay in Government do not necessarily

with Theresa May. Somebody's will have been former

Labour voters who came back to Labour, but felt that they had been

taken for granted. At the Labour Party learned a lesson from Ukip?

What the Labour voters want who voted for Brexit and maybe in the

past voted Ukip and maybe were coming back to Labour this time, I

think all of their votes if you looked at them, they wanted change.

In the end, this election became a change election. Labour became the

party of change. Theresa May worthy continuity party and people did not

want that. But Ukip voters said, listen, we

were going to vote Tory but not now we have heard what you have in your

manifesto. That is the torpedo.

It was an iceberg and we managed to steer the liner magically straight

into that iceberg. Not just the policy but because

there was no forward offer. It was all a backward offer and tough

choices, doom and gloom, we had to put up with the doom and gloom...

If we can, let's talk about good news for one Conservative.

Esther McVey lost Wirral West two years ago but is

back as MP for Tatton - the seat vacated by George Osborne.

Does she think we need a female MP from the north-west

Good to see another high profile woman back in Northwest politics.

I am all for a good candidate... I am not a particular fan of Esther

McVey but it is good to see more women in politics. Lots of new MPs

coming in who I don't know it all because we weren't expected to

window seat. Good to get to know some college as well. Some new

colleagues across the place. She will have a different tone in

cat into George Osborne, different characters.

I love Esther to death. She is wonderful and when she was in Wirral

she was hammered by that one policy, and the fact is now she has got a

new lease of life, and like you, Lucy, I hardly got to know some of

the names and faces of some of the MPs that got elected in 2015, now

they're gone. John, before we finish, is this a

sign of things to come? Everything up in the regular elections... ?

I will see you in autumn. There could well be another election. You

have a Conservative minority Government is unstable, maths are

tight, and if Labour tried to form a coalition that would be hugely

unstable as well. We are in serious difficulty as to Government

permission. How does that make you to feel?

My shoe leather is worn out and I am shattered.

And think the electorate wanted. We have a responsibility to be

responsible as do the Conservatives. The public in a clear view that they

did not really want either of us, that is why we have a hung

parliament. It is our job to try to navigate a way to Brexit, to try to

make sure that the country stays on track, and every single and be has a

responsibility. We were told there would be voter

fatigue this time, and did not see that.

Great turnout, back to the 1980s and 1980s local turnout, fascinating. It

reflects a great interest in politics. -- back to the 80s and

1980s. Batted to us. My thanks to the

guests. North West Today will have

all the latest reaction at 1.30 she will stay. Viewers are joining

us from around the UK.