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Keep up-to-date online by visiting the BBC News website. Now on BBC | :00:05. | :00:13. | |
News, it's time for HARDtalk. So much for all the talk of a | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
Moscow spring. Despite sporadic street protests and the stirrings | :00:18. | :00:24. | |
of middle class rebellion, Vladimir Putin is backing the Crinan and | :00:24. | :00:28. | |
Russia's economic and political status quo remains intact. Why do | :00:28. | :00:37. | |
Liberal opponents of him struggle to gain traction? My guest today is | :00:37. | :00:42. | |
Grigory Yavlinsky, a veteran leader of Russia's fragmented opposition. | :00:42. | :00:52. | |
:00:52. | :01:08. | ||
Will the Liberals ever win in Grigory Yavlinsky, welcome to | :01:09. | :01:18. | |
HARDtalk. Thank you. Vladimir Putin is back in the Kremlin and | :01:18. | :01:22. | |
announced a new cabinet that looks quite a lot like the old one, | :01:22. | :01:26. | |
although he is now present. We still see sporadic protests but has | :01:26. | :01:33. | |
anything really changed at all in Russia? But if Vladimir Putin is in | :01:34. | :01:39. | |
the Kremlin, this is a main sign that nothing has changed. It is the | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
same policies we have had for the last 12 years. I suppose the | :01:44. | :01:47. | |
question is whether there is something important about the scale | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
of the protest we saw beginning in December, after the very much | :01:52. | :01:56. | |
disputed elections. That signify something different about the | :01:56. | :02:04. | |
opposition? -- did that signify. signifiers different, not so much | :02:04. | :02:10. | |
for the opposition, but shows that there are a lot of people who are | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
dissatisfied with the policies of the Vladimir Putin and the current | :02:15. | :02:20. | |
government and authorities. These people are not part of the | :02:20. | :02:27. | |
political movement. This is a kind of preparation for the civil | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
movement. It is not even like a movement yet. It is a lot of young | :02:32. | :02:40. | |
people. Groups of people who represent middle class. And it is | :02:40. | :02:50. | |
:02:50. | :02:51. | ||
also a lot of people who can hardly do find their place in the -- in | :02:51. | :02:56. | |
Putin's of Russia. They have no confidence in their own future. | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
me ask this as politely as I can. Do you believe the young people, | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
the protesters you talk about, are involved in a move that which is | :03:06. | :03:14. | |
leaving you behind? -- movement which is. Not all of them. When | :03:14. | :03:20. | |
they were structured politically, they would join different parts of | :03:20. | :03:29. | |
opposition. It is a mistake in -- in that we have the opposition and | :03:29. | :03:35. | |
we have Putin. We have many different groups - leftist, | :03:35. | :03:41. | |
communist, nationalist, fascist, Democrats, criminal opposition, are | :03:41. | :03:47. | |
oligarchic Opposition, liberal opposition, many. And these young | :03:47. | :03:56. | |
people would be fragmented in these groups. But I am struck by the rise | :03:56. | :04:02. | |
of the various oppositions. One man, Alexei, was part of your movement | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
but he left three or four years ago. He now seems to be doing things | :04:07. | :04:13. | |
which you have failed to do. For using the anti-corruption message | :04:13. | :04:20. | |
to reach out to a larger audience than you ever managed to reach. | :04:20. | :04:26. | |
is a member of my party. He was expelled five years ago for | :04:26. | :04:32. | |
nationalism. What do you mean he was expelled for nationalism? | :04:32. | :04:40. | |
openly expressed nationalistic ideas, that Russian nationality | :04:40. | :04:50. | |
:04:50. | :04:50. | ||
must have priority in Russia, that in a different way. He was one of | :04:50. | :04:55. | |
the organisers of the Russian rallies. He spoke about that openly | :04:55. | :05:01. | |
and clearly. That is his political view. And my view and that few of | :05:01. | :05:08. | |
my colleagues is that nationalism, in whatever form, is extremely | :05:08. | :05:13. | |
dangerous for such a country like Russia. So you in the liberal | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
establishment feel that people like him, who have popular appeal, are | :05:18. | :05:24. | |
in some senses dangerously extreme? I am saying that nationalists for | :05:24. | :05:32. | |
Russia, as in Yugoslavia, a decade or two decades ago, are very | :05:32. | :05:42. | |
:05:42. | :05:43. | ||
dangerous and we don't share that kind of view. Another story, the | :05:43. | :05:51. | |
internet, in virtual space, he is rather popular online. He is a | :05:51. | :06:00. | |
clever person. He achieved a lot in that area. But that does not mean... | :06:00. | :06:05. | |
It just seems to me you talk about the need to focus on traditional | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
politics and traditional party politics. Maybe Russia needs | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
something else right now. When you look at him and his anti-corruption | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
website, when you look at the female punk rock band who are | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
currently under arrest because of their protest stance in the middle | :06:21. | :06:28. | |
of Moscow, you look at that sort of protest idea and it seems to have | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
moved on from your version of Russian politics. I am not speaking | :06:32. | :06:37. | |
about my version of Russian politics. I am speaking about | :06:37. | :06:43. | |
politics and it is important, not only what we are doing today and | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
against what we are fighting for, more important or at least not less | :06:49. | :06:59. | |
:06:59. | :06:59. | ||
important is what we are going to do after her we go to the Kremlin. | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
The alternative is extremely politically important. Big Bash | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
after we go. The people we are talking about, they are bright | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
young people but they are expressing their disagreement with | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
the current situation. But they are also expressing an exhaustion with | :07:16. | :07:21. | |
your view of politics. You recently said, in response to the recent | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
protests, did they really think, talking abo talking abootesters, they | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
could achieve something for a head- on collisions and civil war? You | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
said the opposition needs to focus on series politics, winning | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
elections and taking power. And yet this is the view of somebody who | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
has consistently fought elections, whose party gets 3% of the national | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
vote and to do not actually get on the list for a presidential | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
candidate. That is true. These people were not even prepared to do | :07:50. | :07:56. | |
that. If they continue the same line, they would be out of politics | :07:56. | :08:04. | |
forever. So inviting them into the politics, and I am ready to adjust | :08:04. | :08:13. | |
my politics to their views. We are ready and interested to modernise | :08:13. | :08:19. | |
our approach to politics. But, once again, what they are doing at the | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
moment is not politics. It is in the interest of the current group | :08:24. | :08:30. | |
of Mr Putin. He is interested that the population in Russia would be | :08:30. | :08:36. | |
completely depoliticised. But the flipside is that you have helped | :08:36. | :08:42. | |
Putin over the years by continuing with your traditional mainstream | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
party politics, fighting elections and fighting presidential elections. | :08:47. | :08:56. | |
You legitimise a system in which you can never win. Never ever, that | :08:56. | :09:04. | |
is an open question. I have no examples in Russia that somebody | :09:04. | :09:11. | |
won the elections. Maybe once it happened in the beginning of the | :09:11. | :09:16. | |
90s. Since then, it is a special procedure. But I am not talking | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
about that now. I am saying that it is absolutely necessary, if we want | :09:22. | :09:30. | |
to avoid a revolution. I am against the kinds of things which would | :09:30. | :09:38. | |
improve or implement violence in Russia. It is very important for me. | :09:38. | :09:46. | |
How close to real instability is Russia today, do you believe? | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
Russia is in a position that in two weeks, the situation could change. | :09:52. | :09:59. | |
Very seriously into the opposite situation. It is an illusion that | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
Russian politics is stable. Russian politics is stable for the moment. | :10:03. | :10:08. | |
But not for tomorrow and for the day after tomorrow. But what would | :10:08. | :10:13. | |
be the spark? An outsider would see disputes about the way in which | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
elections are handled but we see Putin, who still commands roughly | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
50% of the vote. We see security forces which seemed entirely loyal | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
to the system. You say within a couple of weeks things could change | :10:26. | :10:34. | |
but what would be the spark that could like that fire? Nobody knows. | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
When you have in information on that, please let me know. Nobody | :10:38. | :10:45. | |
knows. That is Russia. -- have any information. Nobody expected in | :10:45. | :10:49. | |
1985 that in five years the Soviet Union would disappear. Nobody | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
expected in the beginning of the century, when Russia joined the | :10:54. | :11:02. | |
First World First Worldt in two years the Russian empire would simply | :11:02. | :11:12. | |
:11:12. | :11:14. | ||
collapse. Nobody expected that. It can happen very quickly, in a very | :11:14. | :11:22. | |
short period of time. In that economy a bit. You are an economist | :11:22. | :11:27. | |
of long-standing. He recently wrote about the s about the s if | :11:27. | :11:33. | |
which capitalism. | :11:33. | :11:40. | |
and lacking, the capitalist spirit that we saw in the West for so long. | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
Is it your contention that the economy in Russia is so weak that | :11:44. | :11:50. | |
it could undermine Putin's grip on power? It is one of the | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
possibilities. There is a lot of money in Russia because of the | :11:54. | :12:00. | |
prices on oil and other raw materials. But from the point of | :12:01. | :12:06. | |
view of modern economy, in terms of private property rights, which does | :12:06. | :12:11. | |
not exist in Russia, in terms of competition, which does not really | :12:11. | :12:18. | |
exist in Russia, in terms of diversified economy, doesn't exist | :12:18. | :12:24. | |
in Russia, from all these points of view, it is a very weak system. | :12:25. | :12:32. | |
yet only a few weeks ago, I spoke to one of Russia's with just an end. | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
He pointed out the vast potential that the Russian economy still has. | :12:37. | :12:42. | |
Resource potential which he says is uncapped, a vast potential to the | :12:42. | :12:47. | |
east, looking at export possibilities, he says there are | :12:47. | :12:53. | |
systemic problems and corruption but understand just how real the | :12:53. | :13:01. | |
potential of our economy is. We are several hundred years over the | :13:01. | :13:10. | |
potential. I am fed up with the potential. I want to have the real | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
market economy effective today. Not the potential for the future | :13:15. | :13:25. | |
:13:25. | :13:27. | ||
generations. In the Communist times, they said we had potential to | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
create communism. At New Road the 500 day programme of reform in 1990 | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
to change Russia from being a communist to capitalist. -- but you | :13:37. | :13:44. | |
wrote be. And then there was a total economic nightmare and the | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
rise of the exploitative oligarch. Yes. Because 500 days, that problem | :13:48. | :13:57. | |
was not realised. The Washington consensus was recognised instead. | :13:57. | :14:05. | |
The mainstream of the world economy came to Russia and created | :14:05. | :14:12. | |
oligarchic, so any criminal economy. -- so any criminal. That was | :14:12. | :14:17. | |
because of systemic mistakes. can make that argument but going | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
back to politics, the Russian people don't buy it. They associate | :14:21. | :14:27. | |
people like you, the radical liberal economic reformers, with | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
economic chaos. They look at Putin and the fact that even now he is | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
delivering 4% growth a year, unemployment that is lower than the | :14:35. | :14:42. | |
UK and the US, they say, "it is not great but we have got order, | :14:42. | :14:47. | |
stability and those are things we never had when the real Neil | :14:47. | :14:57. | |
:14:57. | :14:59. | ||
Two things. Firstly, you're right. This is one of their problems. I | :14:59. | :15:03. | |
was strongly against the old policies. I was against that tide | :15:03. | :15:09. | |
of reform that we had in Russia. Nevertheless, because it was a | :15:09. | :15:14. | |
market reformer, because I was a supporter of integration of Russia | :15:14. | :15:18. | |
in Europe and in the world, because I was a supporter of private | :15:18. | :15:27. | |
property and competition and capitalist economies, we pulled all | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
those people together with no difference. This is absolutely true. | :15:31. | :15:38. | |
You have never been there were to escape from that. Yes, but there | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
was a real difficulty separating that. But I am speaking about | :15:42. | :15:49. | |
different things. You are not right saying that the people today are | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
saying that kind of stability that Vladimir Putin implemented is OK. | :15:54. | :16:02. | |
It was OK after the decay of your son. That was true. Now it is a | :16:02. | :16:07. | |
different story. Now they are saying it is almost enough. It is | :16:07. | :16:14. | |
too long to have the same thing for 12 years. So the main policy of | :16:14. | :16:23. | |
Vladimir Putin is not to allow alternatives. The problem it within | :16:23. | :16:32. | |
that is, what are we today calling the liberal economists, but we are | :16:32. | :16:39. | |
not. They were not the liberal economists. They were very close to | :16:39. | :16:46. | |
being, I would put it as the people who are saying that calls justified | :16:46. | :16:51. | |
the means. How does one go about changing the Russian economy? If we | :16:51. | :16:57. | |
think about the message that has been sent to Russians with the fate | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
of Michel quad core ski. If we think about what happened to the | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
loyal -- the lawyer who was trying to uncover the vast reservoir of | :17:05. | :17:15. | |
:17:15. | :17:16. | ||
corruptions. He felt that in the financial affairs. Think about the | :17:16. | :17:21. | |
fate of these individuals. Who is going to stand up for the rule of | :17:21. | :17:29. | |
law foreign independent judiciary's you are right once again. From the | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
side of the business. They would not do that. They are afraid. They | :17:34. | :17:39. | |
will tell you stories about potential. That is why the | :17:39. | :17:46. | |
politicians like my friend and I, we do not have a high standing. It | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
is a difficult exercise. Try to do routine business, making profits | :17:51. | :17:57. | |
with no business. The businesses are afraid that it is a strategy of | :17:57. | :18:03. | |
the Vladimir Putin. Is it true that man was funnelling money to your | :18:03. | :18:08. | |
political movement? Yes, of course. So you believed you could make | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
common cause with big business and changed the course of Russia? Isn't | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
that a mixed message? You don't like their system, you don't like | :18:17. | :18:20. | |
that of men like that can amass fortunes worth many millions. But | :18:20. | :18:27. | |
you were happy to take his money. will tell you a secret. Life is | :18:27. | :18:36. | |
always mixed. Politics is always mixed. I was absolutely sure that | :18:36. | :18:43. | |
the vital interest off of all interpreters in Russia, all | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
business people, is to have real private property, rights, freedom | :18:48. | :18:54. | |
and law. That is my problem. A very simple, clear, and difficult to | :18:54. | :19:01. | |
implement. I am absolutely sure he was also interested in that. I | :19:01. | :19:10. | |
disagree with him as a representative of those circles, | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
but in the future, we have the same vital interests as all other people | :19:14. | :19:20. | |
in Russia. You talk about fear. Is there a great deal of fee in Russia | :19:20. | :19:28. | |
today? Among the people who have property, of course. Tell me if | :19:28. | :19:37. | |
this is true. I have read that in the '90s, you experience the most | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
extraordinary fearful moment when I believe you stop some was taken | :19:42. | :19:48. | |
hostage by force as we know not who they were. He had his fingers cut | :19:48. | :19:57. | |
off and sent to you. Is that true? Yes, it is true. But I do not use | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
those arguments in my political life. Why? It is not the argument. | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
The argument is your programme, you believe, your principles, your | :20:08. | :20:15. | |
character. That is the argument. Many Russian people had a lot of | :20:15. | :20:22. | |
the very difficult things in their lives. That was the period of time | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
when the war started in Russia. Maybe what you read about my family | :20:27. | :20:34. | |
and my son was a little bit journalistically arranged. Not | :20:34. | :20:41. | |
every word was close to the reality. The substance was that what you | :20:41. | :20:48. | |
said. But I am sure that for the real politicians, this is not a way | :20:48. | :20:54. | |
of making your popularity, telling terrible stories about your life. | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
The reason I ask is because he paid a picture of Russia potentially | :20:58. | :21:05. | |
very unstable. Potentially full of conflict in the future. The believe | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
that the sort of the new experienced, the intimidation, | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
could happen again? Could Russia remain a society where violence is | :21:14. | :21:20. | |
close to the edge? I am afraid it is possible. Almost everything is | :21:20. | :21:29. | |
possible in Russia. Not like in America. It is possible. It's | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
interesting that you say not like America. It brings me back to a big | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
thought about you enjoy opposition. You have written a lot about the | :21:37. | :21:44. | |
state of capitalism and it is fair to say that as a man who represents | :21:44. | :21:52. | |
the many Russians argument for Western-style liberal politicians, | :21:52. | :21:58. | |
capitalism in the west is looking unhealthy right now. Rye at. Isn't | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
that a profound problem for you? To make the case that a system which | :22:02. | :22:08. | |
is apparently very well built in the worst? Yes, it is one of my key | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
problems in Russia. Because I am trying to say that I want to create | :22:12. | :22:19. | |
the same system like in Europe. I have the answer from averages which | :22:19. | :22:26. | |
is saying, are you crazy? Look at them. I am saying I want to have | :22:26. | :22:32. | |
human rights in Russia. They're saying, look at Iraq? Look at | :22:32. | :22:39. | |
Afghanistan and? Look at the news every day. It is all the same. The | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
prisons in Europe. Things like that. Of the problem for Russia, one of | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
the problems, you were talking about the problems for Russian | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
opposition. There is one more problem which is that we have no | :22:52. | :23:01. | |
examples. The west is trying to create workable effective systems. | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
The Irene a position where we can't say, look at them, let us do the | :23:05. | :23:11. | |
same. You are described by many as the most pro-Western politician. | :23:11. | :23:18. | |
You believe the west has led to down? No, it is our country, it is | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
my country, we are doing the best for our country. We don't need the | :23:22. | :23:29. | |
favour. But what we really are interested in, but you must be | :23:29. | :23:34. | |
successful. I didn't mean let you down in the sense that you expected | :23:35. | :23:41. | |
more. I meant in terms of a role model. Of giving a model to rush of | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
what they could be. Yes, but you are doing that, not because you | :23:46. | :23:52. | |
want to fail. You are failing because you have problems. Your | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
problems are very serious. In the case of Russia, it is a kind of | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
extreme example of the problems now that you have. I can demonstrate to | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
you one by one that we have the same problems that you have, but | :24:05. | :24:13. | |
the scale of our problems is much larger. That is the obstacle for us. | :24:13. | :24:19. | |
The beginning of a new Russia started with the argument that we | :24:19. | :24:24. | |
can live in the same way like Europeans and Americans. And now | :24:24. | :24:30. |