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Euro 2012 in Kiev. Now it is time for HARDtalk. | :00:06. | :00:10. | |
Electoral politics is a blood sport and some of the toughest fighters | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
in the game are the campaign strategists who hone and sell their | :00:13. | :00:22. | |
candidates' message. Lynton Crosby is widely regarded as one of the | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
masters of the darker political arts - he ran winning campaigns in | :00:25. | :00:31. | |
his native Australia for former prime minister John Howard. In the | :00:31. | :00:35. | |
UK, he twice helped Boris Johnson win the London Mayor's office. | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
Opponents on the left have accused him of using grubby, divisive | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
methods to further a conservative agenda. Is bare-knuckle politics | :00:41. | :00:51. | |
:00:51. | :01:14. | ||
good for democracy? Lynton Crosby, welcome to HARDtalk. | :01:14. | :01:20. | |
Good to be here. You are a political gun for hire. Your | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
business is being a political consultant but you also, it seems | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
to me, are a man of strong political convictions of your own. | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
Which comes first for you? Your business or your beliefs? Your | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
beliefs always have to be a foundation for what you do. It's | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
important in politics that people have values. I don't think you'd be | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
finding me working for too many socialists around the world. | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
However, business is business. What we do in politics we also do for | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
business, for communities and countries - trying to make a case | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
that deserves to be put forward. it's unlikely you would ever work | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
for a socialist, but if you look at the people you have worked with - | :01:58. | :02:06. | |
far and wide across the world - have you always felt a values-based, | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
conviction-based connection with the people you have agreed to work | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
for? In most cases, yes. I think it's important that people | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
understand it when you are giving advice you're not seeking to | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
perpetuate your own beliefs and trying to impose your own views on | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
people. But people who you have respect for, whose views you can | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
find similarity and comfort with, that you want to help them doing | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
the best they can. Ultimately, they are the people who put themselves | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
before the people. It interesting you put it that way, but you're | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
trying to mould what they sell to the public. You do so much | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
intensive polymer and getting into the mindset of the voter. What's | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
the point of giving let your candidate unless you hope it will | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
mauled, to a certain extent, what he then tries to sell as his | :02:48. | :02:58. | |
political message? I think the important point to understand is | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
that polling is a navigational tool. It should never tell you what to | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
believe. If you take a poll to tell you what to believe - it will give | :03:05. | :03:12. | |
the game away. Plenty of politicians do that. No, I haven't | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
seen it. There is a mystique, a bit of interest about this - poll in to | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
see what people think, then giving people what they think. It doesn't | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
really work that way. The way I think it should work and the way we | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
work with in my company is we say "this is what you want to do, this | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
is what people think. This is why they hold the views they do and | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
polling has told us all these things. Given that this is what you | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
want to do, here is how you communicate to build community | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
support for what you want to do to take people with you". Case in | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
point - in 1998, John Howard, prime minister of Australia, took the | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
view that Australia needed a new tax system and he proposed a goods | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
and services tax. That's a brave thing to go to an election, which | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
is what he attempted to do, promising to significantly change | :03:57. | :04:02. | |
the taxation system. To impose a new tax. Any poll would have said | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
that people do not like new taxes, people are sceptical of politicians | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
and the way they spend money. Who will vote for a politician | :04:10. | :04:15. | |
promising a new tax? But he was able to make a story, cast a story, | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
and present that to the vote is based on his own very strong and | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
good political instincts. He used research as well. A poll would have | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
said "don't impose a new tax", but you can use research to help you do | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
what you want to do. An interesting example. I am pleased to have taken | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
a us straight to Australia because that is way you cut your political | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
teeth as a strategist and campaigner. You said not so long | :04:40. | :04:49. | |
ago - and this is a quote "everyone likes to sing songs together, but | :04:49. | :04:54. | |
you need points of difference". Is it not true that in your Australian | :04:54. | :04:56. | |
political experience you specialise in finding not just the points of | :04:56. | :05:01. | |
difference but in exploiting people's deeper fears? Look, I | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
think the first thing is - I didn't find too much. Candidates have | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
their own views and they want to take it to the public. The idea | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
that the strategies or adviser comes in and tells you what to | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
think is misplaced, to start with.... But let's look at the idea | :05:16. | :05:21. | |
of picking a way... Well, it's picking away - firstly, you have to | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
hold people to a character. Elections are a choice and you need | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
to frame that choice. When people think about how to use their vote, | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
they need to know what they are going to vote for and what they are | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
going to vote against. They need to understand a choice they face. It's | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
very important that people understand a clear choice that they | :05:41. | :05:47. | |
face. If you do not make it clear to them they can be confused. | :05:47. | :05:53. | |
is - this is where you get accused by opponents of manipulation. Let's | :05:53. | :06:02. | |
take one case study and armpit it a little bit. Into 1001 in Australia | :06:02. | :06:08. | |
-- unpacked it a little bit. In 2001 in Australia there was a boat | :06:08. | :06:18. | |
called the tampon which was intercepted by the Australian Navy. | :06:18. | :06:27. | |
-- Tampa.... John Howard said he would protect Australia from a kind | :06:27. | :06:32. | |
of immigration. It was done in a way that Australians saw as grubby | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
and divisive. He sent the boat away. Many people saw that you were | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
playing upon a racist issue there with your an anti-immigrant starts. | :06:40. | :06:46. | |
How do you respond? Firstly, John Howard won with the biggest swing | :06:46. | :06:50. | |
to an incumbent government in 30 years. Not all the Australian | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
people took that view. Suddenly, the decision he took with that a | :06:56. | :07:01. | |
boat to is one I knew about after he took it. Did you think it was | :07:01. | :07:06. | |
the right thing to do? I definitely did, and the evidence is right now. | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
If you go t If you go tia right now, people is represent their positions | :07:10. | :07:20. | |
:07:20. | :07:20. | ||
about immigration. -- misrepresent. A record number of boats are trying | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
to get there and people are dying because they are being held out - | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
it is being held out to them, falsely, by people smugglers, that | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
they can pay money and get to Australia. Tragically, people are | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
dying. In the last couple of years with John Howard, not one vote came, | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
it yet, and this is the point I would like to make - under the | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
coalition, the Liberal and National parties, if for different coalition | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
to what we have here - Australia took more refugees and takes more | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
migrants than most other countries. It's not about immigration it's | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
about the right way to behave. my point isn't so much about | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
questioning the importance of the issue and the legitimacy of putting | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
the issue in the public domain, it's about how it was done, the | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
detail how it was done. Where political campaigners sit on some | :08:08. | :08:14. | |
of the detail. For example, it was said by senior figures in the | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
Australian government at the time that some of those on board that | :08:16. | :08:21. | |
particular vessel had been attempting to throw their | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
grandchildren overboard in an effort to stymie the efforts of the | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
Australian Navy. The defence minister at the time used that | :08:29. | :08:32. | |
story. It became clear that the Australian navy themselves were | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
saying that they had no evidence for that allegation. But the | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
government officials, particularly some senior ministers, continue to | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
peddle that story. I wonder whether you, as a campaign manager, or | :08:45. | :08:51. | |
involved in any of that? No, and we never used that story. That story | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
happened to break in the lead-up to the campaign but it was never part | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
of our campaign or out that message. Are you prepared to say that you | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
are appalled at some of the things that you said at the time, which | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
appear, after a lot of research and investigation, to have been plain | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
wrong? Naturally, if something is wrong and is perpetuated, that is | :09:10. | :09:16. | |
wrong and no-one would support that. Let's not mix issues here. There is | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
a particular incident which you are describing which, on the evidence, | :09:20. | :09:26. | |
appeared wrong. This is in the public domain now. They didn't | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
change their story at the time. Based on confused information, | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
whatever the reason, it was wrong. That doesn't detract from a | :09:33. | :09:36. | |
fundamental point that we were facing an election and people had | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
to make a choice about the policies that each of the parties were | :09:39. | :09:44. | |
offering. One party was offering a policy that had radically improved | :09:44. | :09:53. | |
the way out that borders were managed. -- the way that. More | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
immigrants and refugees were brought to the country, but in a | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
controlled way. When the system breaks down, if a government fails | :09:59. | :10:04. | |
to tackle it probably, then, actually, it can have the reverse | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
effect of what you want. That was the fundamental basis of the point. | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
It wasn't about where the people came from - there was no issue of | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
race. It was about protecting the borders of Australia - an island | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
nation.... Have you thought very closely and carefully, yourself, or | :10:22. | :10:30. | |
about how far a negative campaigning him go? Is there a line | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
that you have come close to crossing, if you now look back on | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
your career? I can't think of a specific line that I feel that I | :10:39. | :10:49. | |
almost - and negative line that I almost crossed. I think...... | :10:49. | :10:56. | |
true that you are long-time partner of a decade or so, he was involved, | :10:56. | :11:06. | |
:11:06. | :11:07. | ||
as I understood it, - push polling, is when pollsters put coke to do | :11:08. | :11:15. | |
aim -- when pollsters claim to be doing a neutral poll, but they push | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
negative information about the opponents in the poll. I have never | :11:19. | :11:25. | |
used it. My partner has never used it. He was accused in 1995 of using | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
it against a woman candidate in the 1995 by-election. As I understand, | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
it settled out of court that he gave the woman some money. | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
Interestingly there is a court case in Australia right now involving | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
Crosby Dexter - my company, which my partner is a part of - we are | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
suing a government minister for making that same claim because it | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
is simply untrue. There were allegations made and there was a | :11:49. | :11:55. | |
poll conducted in which some of the questions were based on information | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
that was wrong, that was provided by a third party him conducting a | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
poll. The thing about push polling, without overdoing it, because it is | :12:04. | :12:07. | |
one of those things your opponents will have to beat you over the head | :12:07. | :12:13. | |
with, push polling only works, in its theory, developed by the | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
Democrats in the US, was to poll tens of thousands of people with a | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
false claim, with it under the pretence of it being a legitimate | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
goal, and then in so doing, seek to influence the outcome of an | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
election and the way people thought about a candidate. What we do is | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
poll, we ring up a small number of people to ask their opinion in | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
order that we can understand... find out what they're thinking. I | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
understand the difference. Anyway, you've been very clear - you don't | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
do it. Never. Let's move to Australia, where you would accept | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
that your career was controversial. I think when you play hard ball | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
against your opponents they don't always like it. But politics is a | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
serious business. Who runs a country - the policies they | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
implement are important. Forgive me if there is a bit of passion they | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
are sometimes. We like passion on his programme. I wonder why, when | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
you brought that passion to the United Kingdom and red for the | :13:05. | :13:14. | |
Tories in 2005 -- and ran for the Tories into 1005 and failed, why | :13:14. | :13:19. | |
did you fail? I think the situation in 2005 - it is important to | :13:20. | :13:29. | |
understand it understand -- important to understand the | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
situation.... I think back then the Conservative Party still had a lot | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
of challenges. I think Michael Howard was an outstanding leader - | :13:40. | :13:45. | |
the leader at the time. He had been an exceptional Home Secretary in my | :13:45. | :13:48. | |
view. He was keen to focus on the issues with which he had a lot of | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
experience and with which - about which he had strong views. Issues | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
like crime and immigration. Immigration, which you pushed very | :13:56. | :14:02. | |
hard. Afterwards, you said if you had pushed immigration Hardy would | :14:02. | :14:07. | |
have won. It is claimed that I said that. Having a problem for the | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
Conservative Party was that people hadn't changed enough. If you don't | :14:11. | :14:14. | |
change, if you lose successive elections, people are sending a | :14:14. | :14:19. | |
message. Clearly, there hadn't been sufficient change. Clearly, the | :14:19. | :14:28. | |
policy agenda had not changed That brings me to the here and now. | :14:28. | :14:35. | |
I want to ask you what do you think that the Conservative Party in the | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
2012 election, with its David Cannon and the party have clearly | :14:40. | :14:47. | |
defined themselves. -- weather David Cameron. People know what | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
they stand for. Do you think they have succeeded in that? He has | :14:52. | :15:00. | |
faced a tough job and has done it well. He has remained principled in | :15:00. | :15:05. | |
areas such as dealing with debt and financial responsibility. | :15:05. | :15:12. | |
Significant reform and health and education, welfare reform. He has | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
laid out some quite challenging areas for change and improvement. | :15:17. | :15:27. | |
It is not easy in a coalition. Here you have two parties that often | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
have values and principles that will be pulling away from each | :15:29. | :15:34. | |
other. Surely it is the values that are pulling away from each other | :15:34. | :15:44. | |
:15:44. | :15:46. | ||
that are inside David Cameron's head. He wants to say he is a | :15:46. | :15:48. | |
caring and compassionate conservative. He says that the | :15:48. | :15:58. | |
:15:58. | :15:59. | ||
green agenda is one of the greatest threats facing humanity. It seems | :15:59. | :16:04. | |
like there are two different Conservative leaders. The few happy | :16:04. | :16:14. | |
:16:14. | :16:18. | ||
divided brand, it will not work. You need to understand context. The | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
former was at a context were you did not have the financial | :16:21. | :16:28. | |
challenge. But you cannot just jump them when times are tough. It is | :16:28. | :16:33. | |
having to do when having a pressure of the reality of the here and now. | :16:33. | :16:41. | |
He has not changed his beliefs. He understands that Europe remains in | :16:41. | :16:48. | |
meltdown. People want to know that he is focusing on the big issues. | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
Context has created the climate for he has to do with these things work. | :16:51. | :17:01. | |
:17:01. | :17:02. | ||
How do you deal with the being an Australian and address this issue | :17:02. | :17:07. | |
that a Tory MP described David Cameron and George Osborne as two | :17:07. | :17:16. | |
arrogant posh boys. That is a large back problem. Not at all. It is | :17:16. | :17:21. | |
easy to take pot shots. These are tough times. They have been tough | :17:21. | :17:26. | |
job. In the end, people judge you not from where you come but what | :17:26. | :17:34. | |
you do in the job. It has its challenges. They have made clear | :17:34. | :17:40. | |
their first priority is to focus on the nation's debt, the financial | :17:40. | :17:48. | |
system, reforming the education take pot shots. I noticed you are | :17:48. | :17:53. | |
not doing that in this interview. Many Tories are looking at the | :17:53. | :17:58. | |
polls and they are looking difficult for David Cameron. They | :17:58. | :18:06. | |
say they need someone to do plan ahead. The man to do it is Lynton | :18:06. | :18:15. | |
Crosby. In terms of campaign manager. Are you interested? I have | :18:15. | :18:21. | |
a small business. Politics generally makes businesses smaller. | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
I have a job to do. I want to see the Conservatives win. That is not | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
my agenda. Do you think the Conservatives will have a better | :18:30. | :18:38. | |
chance of winning the next election if Boris Johnson will lead to? -- | :18:38. | :18:48. | |
:18:48. | :18:48. | ||
were leader? No, I do not. These are tough times. It is a difficult | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
period. This is because of the world reality. The world as an | :18:53. | :19:01. | |
crisis. There are some tough issues to deal with. You do not see Boris | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
Johnson as a better prime minister than David Cameron? Bob Johnson | :19:07. | :19:15. | |
says he is an outstanding mare. -- Boris Johnson. The qualities are | :19:15. | :19:21. | |
born of the fact that it is a presidential system. People voting | :19:21. | :19:28. | |
for one person. He has character. He has a commitment to do the job. | :19:28. | :19:35. | |
Why, when you talk so fondly of his character, why do you think that | :19:35. | :19:45. | |
:19:45. | :19:45. | ||
his press car left the job after the election? His press chief said | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
afterwards that the problem is that our campaign strategy took some of | :19:49. | :19:57. | |
the bubbles out of him. He said that you had tried to control and | :19:57. | :20:06. | |
packaging too much. He cannot be controlled. Boris Johnson won. At a | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
time when the Conservatives were behind in London. Any campaign, you | :20:11. | :20:21. | |
face particular challenges. For people to hear that and see that | :20:21. | :20:27. | |
and understand that, sometimes you have to get a little more direct, | :20:27. | :20:33. | |
focused and tight. He chose to do rich and communicated it. Let me | :20:33. | :20:40. | |
ask you about your work all around the world. You work all over the | :20:40. | :20:46. | |
place. You have been in Malaysia, Fiji, lots of places. Does the | :20:46. | :20:51. | |
approach you go into politics, and we have talked about the | :20:51. | :20:57. | |
exploitation of the tension, does that work in some of these less | :20:57. | :21:03. | |
mature democracies? It might be dangerous in some of them. You are | :21:03. | :21:09. | |
making an assumption. You always take a big focus on a negative into | :21:09. | :21:17. | |
the campaign. You deal with the circumstances you face. Take | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
Malaysia as an example. A number of different races, intermingled. | :21:22. | :21:30. | |
Often sensitive in their issues. It would be wrong to exploit that. To | :21:30. | :21:38. | |
manipulate that in any way at all. Where you go in the world, whether | :21:38. | :21:46. | |
it is Fiji, Ghana, Zambia or a country in Africa. People have | :21:46. | :21:51. | |
various values and goals for themselves and their families. A | :21:51. | :21:55. | |
campaign is all about helping them see, given those aspirations they | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
hold, that the candidate you are offering, you are supporting, and | :22:01. | :22:11. | |
the policies they're offering, meet those aspirations and goals. Let me | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
quote something from one a few phone company's reports from New | :22:15. | :22:24. | |
Zealand. It is about Helen Clark. You called it a strategic | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
opportunity in the emerging perception that Helen Clark is too | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
busy to will be about the concerns of ordinary working families. It | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
must be stressed that this sentiment amongst the public is | :22:36. | :22:43. | |
embryonic. It must be leveraged. It will not exist and mature on its | :22:43. | :22:49. | |
own. As we reach an end to this conversation, it is a very cynical | :22:49. | :22:58. | |
way of looking at politics. You do not manipulate their opinion. They | :22:58. | :23:01. | |
hold their own opinions. You help them understand the circumstances | :23:01. | :23:09. | |
they face and the choice they face. What often happens, particularly in | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
this day and age, people feel this and how work. They get angry when | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
the EC political figures focusing on what they see to be abstract | :23:18. | :23:26. | |
issues. The point I am seeking to make is that people have real | :23:26. | :23:33. | |
concerns about their day-to-day lives. She seemed to be off on her | :23:33. | :23:39. | |
little course. That is the fact of it. You will not tell me if you | :23:39. | :23:45. | |
work with the Conservatives in 2015. Would you say that if you look | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
around the world and the amount of business to a company has done, | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
that politicians are more reliant on the sorts of skills that you and | :23:52. | :24:02. | |
others can bring? In everything, from the media, to finance, to | :24:02. | :24:09. | |
every day small business activity, we all need specialists. The point | :24:09. | :24:15. | |
and made at the start I will reinforce - at the end of the day, | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
someone who runs for political office must have their own beliefs. | :24:19. | :24:26. |