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when he disappeared. Time for These are anxious times for British

:00:12.:00:16.

Conservatives. A stiff dose of Tory austerity has not yet lifted the UK

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economy off its sickbed. The Conservative party is behind Labour

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in the polls, and perhaps most worryingly, two years into David

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Cameron's premiership, Tories still seem undecided about the party's

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strategic direction. HARDtalk speaks to Tim Montgomerie, founder

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of the website ConservativeHome.com. He is a key player in the soul

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searching on the political right. What makes for a winning brand of

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Tim Montgomerie, welcome. Far from turning cartwheels of job, he's

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seen overwhelmed by a sense of foreboding. Why? For a couple of

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reasons. This is not the government Conservatives have waited for. The

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last time we won a majority was 1992. We had been out of power for

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a longer. In our history. The compromises of the coalition are

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one reason. The second reason is we cannot say a plan to change that.

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To win the next election, to address the fact the Conservative

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government has struggled to win the popular vote. He had David Cameron

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enpower and George Osborne running the Treasury. You have Tory

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philosophy behind the key economic planks of policy making in this

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government and yet you say and you have written about it extensively,

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you wonder if the Tories would ever again win an outright majority. It

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makes us sound like you believe what the Tories are doing is

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hindering their long-term objectives of the Conservative

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Party. To be clear, some of the things this government is doing is

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incredibly important and I support wholeheartedly. The deficit

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reduction programme is not a programme of tries, it is of

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necessity. In the early years when the economy was still strong, he

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wanted to share the proceeds of growth between higher public

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spending and tax cuts. It is not an anti-state Conservative Party. The

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reforms the Iain Duncan Smith is making for a double first day, the

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reforms of schools, there are great. But Margaret Thatcher could not

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increase the share of a bird that she won after 1979. Tony Blair

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could not win the share of popular vote he won after he was elected.

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If David Cameron is able to increase his share of the vote, it

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will be an extraordinary achievement. Those of us to worry

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about achieving a Conservative governments are looking for the

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game changes. We do not think this is enough to be an average

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Government with an average of re- election plan. It need something

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special. Would you have on your website ConservativeHome.com has

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become one of the go to places for political discussion in the UK,

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especially for Conservative Party members. When you have there is one

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Lower go card soon which comes with the words, at David Cameron wrong

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or modernisation. Where has he gone wrong? I am someone who does not

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think the Conservative Party is in the right place. I do not think it

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is enough to go back to where the word. Where has it Cameron got it

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wrong? He made a lot of good decisions focusing on the health...

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I want to know where he got it wrong. The strategic mistake he

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made early in his leadership was he thought the Conservative Party was

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to right wing. By that he meant we talked to much about Europe, we

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were to focus on issues like crime and immigration. There is no

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evidence that has ever worried the British people. 80% of the British

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people a grave with us on those topics. The problem with the

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Conservative Party has been since Margaret Thatcher's day. Not a

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we're too right wing but that we do not balance that with a concern for

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blue-collar workers, drivers. We are not committed enough to the

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public services. The challenge for the Conservative Party is not to

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stop talking about but is familiar with us. It is about having an

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agenda. We will still be there with the safety net, we will still

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believe in the NHS. Everything You mentioned about marrying populist

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traditional issues with a belief the Tories will maintain a strong

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state, comes back to this word state. You said early in this

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conversation that he did not seek Cameron as an anti-state person.

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But look at the reality. What David Cameron and George Osborne are

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doing is imposing a prolonged period of austerity which in the

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end was take Britain, in terms of the proportions of project and

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spending that comes from the government, taking a Bono or our

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European partners and the US, possibly. It is about living within

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our means. We are spending far too much money compared to the tax

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revenue that we are bringing in. We are borrowing over �100 billion

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this year. That is unaffordable. If they deliver all of the savings

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they have promised, the size of the state will be as big as it was in

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2004 under does state minimalist called Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.

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This is not a radical agenda. It is quite simply about Good

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Housekeeping and ensuring that my's generation dinner have to repay the

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debts we have imposed to look beyond our means. Most British

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people understand the cuts are not endangering an H S, or the public

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services, they are the only way of saving them. Having looked at a

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series of charts reproduced by the IMF and the Guardian newspaper arm.

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A reporter looked at those figures, he said, if George Osborne gets his

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way in the next five years, Britain will have a smaller public sector

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than any other major developed nation. That conclusion is based on

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IMF figures. Is that what the British public wants? What the

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British public wants is for a nation to live within its means and

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not to be in a situation like Spain and Greece. That is the absolute

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emergency situation we have to address. What they want from the

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Conservative Party is not an anti- state party. We often give the

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impression we are against the state. That is dangerous. Margaret

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Thatcher, David Cameron, John Major based spent a lot of taxpayers'

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money. We should be proud that we have a health service that trees

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people regardless of their needs. We should be proud week had a good

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pension. We should be proud of that our people are looked after. That

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is not the situation at the moment. The situation at the moment is that

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many people who should be looking after themselves and their families

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have state benefits. During Gordon Brown's years, when the economy was

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strong, dependency was increased recklessly. Cutting back on Sark is

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this government's project. Not leaving the vulnerable to write

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Lene public services are on their own. Do you think it is right for

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conservatives to aim for a state which is smaller in the future then

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of the US? With all the indications that carries for what the State

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does for citizens. I am not in favour of artificial target.

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Forecasts are being proven wrong on a six-monthly basis. We don't know

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where will be from six-12 months. In a few defend the nature and the

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steep curve of austerity cuts that George Osborne has imposed, how

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does that match a desire to win over the blue-collar conservatives

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that you believe are out there? For example, if they seek, in the words

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of a leading disabled advocate, that families will be worse off

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under the reforms of the credit system, when they hear that, how we

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are convinced them that the Tory party is the party for those who

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are less well off, the less easily finding work in Britain today?

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British people think of the welfare state should be there for people

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who are genuinely in need. The top of the list for most people's

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criteria are people with disabilities. People are cannot

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look after themselves or who need help. That is not what we have with

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the well for a stay at the moment. -- welfare state. There are huge

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proportions of people who should be out there in the market place,

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looking after themselves. There have been accusations of some

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people being malingerers. People who endanger the safety net of

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those who are taking benefits they are not entitled to. We were only

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ensure public confidence in double for a state, which I saw it -- for

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the support, if we have gone through all the legitimate task to

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ensure those to are getting money from taxpayers, the blue-collar

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workers, who worked incredibly hard and who have to watch very

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carefully at the beginning of the mud rather than the end of the

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month, they need to know they have a government that is looking after

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their tax pounds and that those tax plans are going to people genuinely

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in need. That is what the government is doing. They would not

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get it right every time. It is your contention that you can have this

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compassionate conservatism with a pro active state and you can still

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stick to the fiscal hawkish stance that George Osborne has adopted.

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The government are very keen to look at how to break up the link

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between benefits and inflation. They believe it has to be done to

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save more money. That has been described by the head of Child

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Poverty Action Group as breaking a basic link with decency. Where do

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you sit on that argument? I will come back to that question. Part of

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the problem we have at the moment is that the generosity of the

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society is measured only in terms of how much the state spent. It is

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the nature of your question, it is the nature of Child Poverty Action

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Group's agenda. The most radical thing that Conservatives need to do,

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which is insured with most people, is to say the basis of a

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compassionate society is not how much the government spares but

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ensuring how strong families and every person has a good education

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and getting people into work. Our most important compassionate act is

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not the state bureaucrat, they are parents, teachers and job creators.

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That is what we must focus on. And why the government has to squeeze

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benefits at the moment is because everyone in work is having their

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pay frozen or cut at the moment. It is very hard for people to meet

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fence. -- maker and need. They are difficult decisions. I will pursue

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for a straight answer. We have to ensure the premiums that people get

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and the work that they do. What is the signal that East Stand at? Do

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you believe that they should no longer be inflation-proofing of

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benefits? Yes or Inu? Not all benefits. Pensioners have restored

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the link between pensions and average earnings. That is less than

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inflation. The generosity of his government to certain classes of

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benefit claimants is greater than the last Labour government. I am

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proud of that. There are certain classes, particularly those who

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live alongside someone who is going out to work for potentially at

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almost very little rewards compared to the person on benefits. That

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person should... That is a complicated answer for a simple

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Do you think the British public want a relationship between the

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citizen and the state, that it feels more like the relationship

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that we see in France and Germany, or the relationship that we see in

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the United States? I think the US as a welfare state for its

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provision for people in need is greater than in Europe. Really? How

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much time had be spent in America? Quite a bit of time. Some of these

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systems but that is directed towards families is greater than

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those in Europe. A lot of the American system is hidden, not just

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at federal level, but at state level and the local level as well.

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It is quite misunderstood. As a blue-collar conservative, if you

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had a vote in the forthcoming US presidential election, would you be

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casting their vote for President Obama or for the natural ally of

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the Conservative Party, Mitt Romney? Meet Romney. Would you? The

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clear majority of Conservatives today seem to back Obama over Mitt

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Romney, and seemed to be saying to themselves and the British people,

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we are not like Mitt Romney, who has a very dramatic, fiscally it

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hawkish view of slimming down expenditure. Most British

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Conservatives seem to say that they are not like that. I need to

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challenge the basis of your question. You seem to be suggesting

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that those people who want to cut the deficit are somehow the harsh

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people, and the people who want to keep on spending are the capacity

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at people. -- the compassionate. The people who did not want to

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bring the deficit under control, they are the people who will leave

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the country would deficit that will have to serve this for years to

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come. Interest payments, that is money that cannot be spent on

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hospitals, schools, the police service. Mitt Romney, George

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Osborne, David Cameron, we are not cutting because we somehow take a

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delight in having to make reductions, we are making these

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cuts in order to put the public finances in order, so we can

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protect and sustain services that need protecting. I find you take on

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one of the key issues, the size of the state, very interesting. Let's

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talk about who is delivering the policy. And maybe here the

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Conservatives had a problem. You have commented on the look and the

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sound of the leadership of the Conservative Party. It is dominated

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by people who either went to very posh public schools or to Oxbridge.

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Are they the right people and to be reaching out to the blue-collar

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Conservatives who you say are the key to the Party's future? Going

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back to our American parallel, you would not have a governor and a

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senator from Massachusetts, running for US Office, for the top ticket,

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you would have someone from a Southern state, someone from the

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Midwest. You would have balance to the ticket. There is something in

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the Conservative Party have been George Osborne and David Cameron as

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the two leading paces -- faces. It is not the party of John Major in

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1992. There was something special about what the Conservative Party

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had, in a leader who had gone from the wrong side of the tracks. I

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think it is harder, but if you look at the Mayor of London, another

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order Etonian, he has that sort of privileged background, and yet he

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has prospered in a city which traditionally votes Labour. He has

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won an election twice, in the middle of an austerity period. It

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is not impossible for somebody of a certain background to convince

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blue-collar Britain that they are on their side. It is interesting

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that you bring Boris Johnson into the conversation. You had said not

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long ago, if the choice is between David Cameron and Boris Johnson,

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the debate may looked irresistible. Is that where you stand, that for

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his best efforts, David Cameron is doomed? Do you think that Boris

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Johnson will have to be brought in at some point? This is the danger

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of writing hypothetical situations. My whole premise was the idea that

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David Cameron ends up being a catastrophic leader. We did not

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have to stretch too hard to imagine it coming true. My honest view is

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that we will struggle to win the next election but that David

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Cameron will be competitive. So he will not face a leadership

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challenge. I think his speech at the leadership conference was the

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best he has given as the leader. If he can keep going on that, he may

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well have a chance at the next election. If he wants to reach out

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to the strivers, and make good on the aspiration nation vision that

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he has painted, does he need to jettison some of the damaging

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baggage around him? I'm thinking of the position of his chief whip,

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Andrew Mitchell, who is accused by policemen of having caught there

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are word that I cannot use, and then plebs. He denies it. They said

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that he absolutely said it. It raises questions about his truth-

:22:08.:22:14.

telling, his relationship with the police. Should he resign? I think

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what happened at the Downing Street gates are disputed. He certainly

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acknowledges that he spoke... he has apologised to the police

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officer in question. Although it is an accusation, it is going to hang

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over the Conservative Party, and I come back to it, the party that can

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only win if it reaches out to the blue-collar people. The parts that

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are far away from London. Andrew Mitchell episode is not

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helpful, I am not going to deny that. But I do not think it is

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going to determine the next election. It will not be a

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referendum, it will be a choice, they will look at the Labour Party

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and they will say, who is fixing the deficit, who is keeping my tax

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bill under control, who is controlling our borders, those are

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the issues that would determine the next election. In comparison, I

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think David Cameron will stand in very good comparison with Ed

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Miliband. But the Andrew Mitchell Abersoch is not helpful. One other

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specific that you refer to quite a lot, in the website and in your

:23:31.:23:38.

speaking, is Europe. You seem to believe, that it is common ground

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in Britain to want to actively consider exiting the European Union.

:23:43.:23:47.

Are you sure that would be a wise direction for the Conservative

:23:47.:23:55.

Party to take? Europe is one of those issues that is often painted

:23:55.:24:01.

in the media as a right-wing issue. That actually, it is the common

:24:01.:24:07.

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