David Kilcullen - Author and Counter-insurgency Expert HARDtalk

Welcome to HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi shopping maul siege tell us

about future terror attacks? Who will carry them out and we are?

about future terror attacks? Who guest today is David Kilcullen,

about future terror attacks? Who of the worlds most influential

American general during the surge in advised the former US Secretary

American general during the surge in the Iraq War. He has worked in

Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq. Is the world in danger of underplaying

Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq. Is the HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi

attack tell us about the nature HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi

future threat? I would characterise what happened in Nairobi as an

example of an urban siege. Since the beginning of the war on terror about

a dozen years ago, there have been a lot —— has been an evolution in

a dozen years ago, there have been a way terrorists operate. In this

doing something that we first saw bombings and during the Mumbai

attacks. They have gone to a complex piece of Tobin —— urban to rain

attacks. They have gone to a complex tried to hold that to rain for a

long period of time and defend the area, fight to hold it. What does

that tell us? What we are seeing is high—profile attacks like Mumbai.

By's coastal city. That was November right. About 300 wounded. Terrorists

coming by boat, in a slum area, right next to major high—rise hotels

developed downtown parts. What does right next to major high—rise hotels

developed downtown parts. What does that tell us, other than the fact

that cities are dangerous? And cities have always been dangerous.

But there are more people than ever in history living in cities. Another

3 billion people will be in the urban population across the planet,

cities, that are already straining almost all in developing world

cities, that are already straining because of lack of infrastructure.

One of the important things about the Nairobi attack is conflict

happened where people lived and terrorist adapt to the conditions.

overstretch, poverty and the kinds of things that lead to slum growth

terrorists begin to operate. But what you have said is more than

that. You say the challenge is we now have a growing population,

urbanisation, particularly around coastal cities, and productivity

What do you mean? When you live coastal cities, and productivity

city like more bite, where there is enormous poverty, there are a lot of

criminal organisations, corruption and a lack of infrastructure, most

people don't have the kinds of resources they need. —— a city like

occasionally a terrorist attack resources they need. —— a city like

nasty and unpleasant but you have to be unlucky to be caught in that

attack. The day to of billions of people in the cities in the next

generation will be around other issues, more mundane, but more

serious. One example would be the Kenyan national crime research

Centre about one month ago issued a report that there are 46 criminal

gangs operating in Kenya. 60% of the population of Nairobi lives in big

slums. There are games that are dramatically more violent than

Al—Shabab. What the conclusion? dramatically more violent than

counterterrorism experts. You have been in just about every conflict in

the world. You say, everybody, take been in just about every conflict in

your eye off the ball when it comes to terror attacks and focus on local

issues? We have focused on a very to terror attacks and focus on local

issues? We have focused on a very particular type of threat. How we

dramatically different. Urban, particular type of threat. How we

dramatically different. Urban, crowded, Postal. As we shake off the

hangover of a decade of conflict and we re—engage with the future, we are

really going to have to look back at some of the things we thought we

knew before 9/11. I will ask you about the jihad is great in a minute

at picking up on what you said, about the jihad is great in a minute

the jihad is the jihad of threat will be dwarfed by the criminal

activity. But argue not guilty then of what for instance the Republican

chairman of the house of Foreign Affairs Committee said after this

attack, I think at this point we Al—Shabab, which is of course blamed

for the attack in Nairobi, has a capability of carrying out attacks

on the United States. Isn't this being complacent? There are 40

Al—Shabab. They could conceivably carry out such an attack. One of the

new things about the environment now is the incredibly high rate of

conductivity. Urbanisation was not a new thing in the 20th century. ——

significant penetration into the connectivity. People in the 90s

significant penetration into the populations that are very heavily

connected across the planet. Stuff populations that are very heavily

connected across the planet. Stuff that happens in Somalia resonates in

Minnesota of course has the largest that happens in Somalia resonates in

Minnesota of course has the largest a way that it never did before.

Minnesota of course has the largest complacent about the nature of the

jihad of threat. I remind you of what President Obama said in May,

when he made that speech to the National defence University. He

when he made that speech to the that Al Qaeda are in retreat, but

wonder if you are guilty of? I'm not they have been defeated pretty much.

wonder if you are guilty of? I'm not sure what data President Obama is

looking at but the data I am looking retreating. It suggests they have

changed their way of operating. retreating. It suggests they have

talked about Mumbai. 300 people wounded, about 160 killed. One metre

of sealevel rise in Bangladesh puts 22 million people under water.

That's what I mean by this kind 22 million people under water.

threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. Millions of people on the move,

threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. of the country too salty to farm,

people starving to death and we of the country too salty to farm,

talking about lack of basic urban dramatic, it's important. I have

been doing it for a long time. I have two or three terrorist groups

lined up to kill me so I won't President Obama said in May that Al

remaining operatives spend more President Obama said in May that Al

thinking about their own safety President Obama said in May that Al

plotting against us. Isn't that Broncos a lot of people say the

jihad is threat is stronger and resurgent. —— isn't that Broncos a

lot of people. Insults have been hurled at President Obama, France's

president. There is an anti—Western hurled at President Obama, France's

president. There is an anti—Western threat there. You have to also think

about what is happening at the level of Al Qaeda Central. Those guys

about what is happening at the level Pakistan. The head of Al Qaeda?

pointing to is that particular group is we can now than it was at some

troops have done a very good job in still see a very strong regional

troops have done a very good job in Mogadishu and kiss May. This is

heading back to Uganda and Kenya... The Ugandans are the leading force

within the peace keeping mission that has been fighting. I still

within the peace keeping mission the Al—Shabab organisation as having

a regional agenda. A lot of these groups, Al Qaeda in the Arabian

Peninsular for example, and to some extent the jihad as groups in Syria,

our allying themselves with the brand of Al Qaeda to gain credibly.

So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say with a great deal of confidence

So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say only a regional threat but you can't

say that with confidence. Al Qaeda started off by only attacking end of

Arabian Peninsular and then went further. Its aetiology all along was

global, in a way Al—Shabab has not been. That's not what the president

of Somalia has said. He says it been. That's not what the president

an ideology, not a citizenship, been. That's not what the president

we know, huge links with jihadists in many nations across Africa. Eon

Africa. Is he wrong? Yes. He is wrong. The president of Somalia

Africa. Is he wrong? Yes. He is wrong when he says that? It doesn't

ago he said it was a threat to the wrong when he says that? It doesn't

ago he said it was a threat to the whole world. I think he is right

always been focused on that will about that. But it is not focused on

organisation. It has said that it operates under the umbrella of Al

But me give you an example. It was Qaeda. Just as many groups say that.

recently said in Syria that a group was allying itself with Al Qaeda.

The reason that statement was made is almost certainly not because

The reason that statement was made wants to follow is an eerie into the

alternative is to be... Al Qaeda Central is a weakened organisation

on the other side of the Arabian Peninsular. It's better to have

on the other side of the Arabian theoretical fealty to a brand name

than be under the thumb of the guy who runs Al Qaeda in Iraq. So, you

have to see this as a diversified group of different organisations. We

do. A lot of experts do. Right after 9/11, they treated the thing as

do. A lot of experts do. Right after single undifferentiated mass. But in

today's Al Qaeda is more dangerous organisation because it is widely

dispersed and there is a younger generation coming up with new ideas,

all the way from west Africa to south Asia. It is a broader battle

field. If he wrong? I think is right. I think he is pretty right.

President makes a statement about what's going on with Al Qaeda, he is

articulating a policy about moving away from militant confrontation in

the Arab world and moving away from conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan.

So, it has to be seen as part of the political discourse and that's why I

say I think Somalia's resident is partly political. I think it's

president's statement is partly political. To say because you are

Muslim, you must have this different agenda, different to people who

Muslim, you must have this different non— Muslim people have different

backgrounds. What I react against is non— Muslim people have different

backgrounds. What I react against is the political statements that came

that people are wondering what the political statements that came

that people are wondering what Somalis in Kenya I looking —— are up

to. There are 40 members in the Somalis in Kenya I looking —— are up

He said to the President that he was making a political statement that

al—Shabab could be internationalist. It could be an international risk.

But if you look at the statements that al—Shabab leaders have made, it

is fundamentally focused not on overthrowing the entire world order

like al—Qaeda, it is one of these groups that fundamentally have a

local agenda. It is manipulated groups that fundamentally have a

groups like al—Qaeda. Part of the danger of allowing them to fall

groups like al—Qaeda. Part of the signing up for a mass of Western

authoritarian regimes because they backyard. —— terrorists. We have got

two was at 5000 American and British casualties. That is not the best way

to treat this kind of threat. You mentioned that one of the groups

ideology, however distorted it might the fact that religion or religious

determines how things play out when be, is a motivating factor for a

determines how things play out when they start. But one of the things I

did was that they visited many cities and a number of different

parts of the world and sought the Christian and Muslim and Hindu and

what prone to this kind of activity. Christian and Muslim and Hindu and

what prone to this kind of activity. What I see is that religion, along

with a lot of other things, is a factor. But would you accept that

there are people in the region, factor. But would you accept that

the president of Tunisia, who has warned of the rise of the Islamist

terrorism. He said al—Qaeda is trying to recoup its losses from the

initial Arab uprisings, led by secular and mainstream groups. He

clearly has a vested interest in seeing peace. I am not talking about

the modernist Islamist is. I am talking about the jihadist is.

President Putin has made similar comments. One of the side—effects of

the uprising against the oppressive regimes in North Africa has been a

rise in jihadist activity in those places. One of the tragedies of

Syria has been that the West has broad—based civil lead largely

secular Movement for Democratic Change in Syria be overwhelmed by

oppressive brutality to the point where the original Syria and civil

Democrat leaders have been sidelined where the original Syria and civil

Democrat leaders have been sidelined and you have a series of relatively

extreme military groups. That is a challenge. How could they have

lot more diplomatically. I would not avoided that? We should have done a

lot more diplomatically. I would not advocate a military intervention. A

the regime six months to get from military intervention in this kind

and shooting protesters to the point where it is facing a civil war.

and shooting protesters to the point relatively unified. You had things

they can President's wife looking to where the family could flee to.

they can President's wife looking to have people in the Allied community

rejecting the leadership. What we have now is that President Assad's

powerbase has unified. People feel diplomatic intervention earlier

would have helped? It would not diplomatic intervention earlier

the regime any weaker. Help is your theory of how we can best bike to

insurgency, would that help people? It is really important to see Syria

as part of a series of conflicts that began to emerge in 2010. Urban

populations that were very connected with each other and in many places

close to the coastline were able to exploit that kind of activity and

the density of communications. They were able to overthrow regimes that

would not have been able to defeat revolution quickly because there was

not a lot of connectivity between people. This time around, half a

dozen cities rose up simultaneously people. This time around, half a

dozen cities rose up simultaneously because people were talking to each

to get ahead. So you have got to try to get ahead. So you have got to try

and secure the cities. Is that the idea? What we see with most of the

fighting is that it is almost all in the cities, but the rebels have

controlled the outskirts, with the regime controlling the medals. That

is a typical pattern. It seems that you have been writing things in

is a typical pattern. It seems that book, that we have got to get our

heads inside series and out of the mountains. —— cities. But I do not

overlooking the fact that there mountains. —— cities. But I do not

a lot of terrorists and criminal activities that do operate in rural

areas? Not at all. There will still violence, crime and conflict in

rural areas. The —— but two thirds of people will be either in a major

city or a smaller city. Conflict happens where people are. If you are

focused on preparing to deal with that kind of environment, in the

British army or police, you want to be thinking less about rural areas

and more about open environments. President Obama said they take

refuge in tribal regions and walled compounds. They train in empty

deserts and rugged mountains. But you're arguing for people to take

her focus of areas where these people operate. That will not make

the world a safer place. We now people operate. That will not make

engaging in that environment. I people operate. That will not make

the ball. But as these conflicts not suggesting we take our eye off

the ball. But as these conflicts come to an end, as we think about

of history, Carew was used to hide what is coming next, we look at

of history, Carew was used to hide in jungles. Now we have radar that

can penetrate that. They used to hide in mountains. Not because they

like mountains, that is where the cover was. Now with drones and

open. Dramatically larger amounts of cover was. Now with drones and

open. Dramatically larger amounts of urbanising. This is not just a

theory of conflict. Everything is getting more open. Finally, when you

look at the world today, were you think the most dangerous place is on

which become this doughnut shaped ring of Territorians were people

moved to. Most larger cities on coastlines. East and west coast

moved to. Most larger cities on Africa, North Africa, the Middle

East, certain parts of the Caribbean suggesting that is where terrorists

will hide. That is unsophisticated. There are a lot of other threats out

there at that will be much more threatening to the future of the

extremists. It will be about urban overstretching failing to cope with