Browse content similar to Ivo Daalder - US Ambassador to Nato 2009 - 2013, Ihor Dolhov - Ukraine's Ambassador to Nato. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Welcome to HARDtalk. Can a frantic round of international diplomacy | :00:00. | :00:20. | |
deliver a deescalation of the Ukraine crisis? The immediate aim is | :00:21. | :00:26. | |
to avoid a shooting war, and the longer term challenges to persuade | :00:27. | :00:29. | |
Russia to accept a new political landscape in Kiev. Can it be done? I | :00:30. | :00:35. | |
am joined from Brussels by Ukraine's Ambassador to NATO, Ihor | :00:36. | :00:43. | |
Doldhov, and from Chicago by the recently retired US ambassador to | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
the same organisation, Ivo Daalder. In this battle between Putin and the | :00:47. | :00:56. | |
West, who wins? Ivo Daalder in Chicago in the US, | :00:57. | :01:24. | |
and Ihor Doldhov in Brussels, ambassadors both, welcome to | :01:25. | :01:32. | |
HARDtalk. Very pleased to be here. Thank you. Let me start with you, | :01:33. | :01:39. | |
Ihor Doldhov, would you expect that right now in this unfolding crisis, | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
it is Vladimir Putin who is pulling the strings? He is acting, and | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
everyone else has to react. Thank you for the question, and let me | :01:49. | :01:58. | |
from the beginning put at the centre of our attention today the most | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
important subject. It is Ukraine, and Ukrainian people. It is not | :02:02. | :02:09. | |
about Putin and the West. It is about Ukraine and the choices of the | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
people. We really appreciate all strong support that we have received | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
from NATO, from the EU, from different capitals, but as you see, | :02:18. | :02:23. | |
our efforts are not sufficient to convince the Russian Federation to | :02:24. | :02:29. | |
stop military invasion, to pull back all troops, and to come back to the | :02:30. | :02:36. | |
political solution of the situation. No, that is the truth. You say it is | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
all about the Ukrainian people, but the fact is that Vladimir Putin has | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
ordered his troops to essentially takeover Crimea, and they are going | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
nowhere, it seems. That is a reality you have two now react to, and live | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
with. Unfortunately, we have to live with that, but again, let me | :02:59. | :03:06. | |
reconfirm that we are not alone. We are not for Britain, or neglected by | :03:07. | :03:16. | |
the world community -- forbidden. We have strong support from UN, NATO, | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
and the Black Sea Mission will be deployed there, and altogether we | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
will be able to convince Moscow to stop the invasion. Let's cross from | :03:28. | :03:35. | |
Brussels to Chicago. Recently retired from NATO, but I know still | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
watching events in Europe very closely, Ivo Daalder, you believe | :03:40. | :03:45. | |
that part of the problem here is that the West, perhaps led by the | :03:46. | :03:55. | |
US, Miss red Vladimir Putin's reaction to the amazing political | :03:56. | :03:58. | |
events we saw in the past few months. ? Think in the past few | :03:59. | :04:05. | |
months we have had a situation where around the world we expect nations | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
to behave in a certain way, and one of which is not to invade | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
neighbouring countries. This was clearly violated. I don't think that | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
anybody has had any illusions about Mr Putin or what it is that he is | :04:18. | :04:26. | |
after, it is very clear that he is a man who has said that the breakup of | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
the Soviet Union was the greatest crisis of our century. We have seen | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
this going on with regard to Ukraine for many years, in particular since | :04:38. | :04:44. | |
late last year when the EU was trying to negotiate and Association | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
agreement. Did anybody expect him to move as brazenly as he did over the | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
weekend? Perhaps not. But the reality is that no one, and that | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
includes no one in the US, Europe, NATO, United Nations, is willing to | :04:57. | :05:04. | |
accept this new situation, and everyone is united to find a way to | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
put the pressure on Russia so that we can get back to the status quo, | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
in which the Ukrainian people can choose their own people. We will get | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
to that unwillingness, and what it means in practical terms in a | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
moment, but just sticking with what you know well, which is US strategy | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
towards Russia during the Obama administration, would you now expect | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
that the strategy has failed from beginning to end? -- accept. It | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
began with the US wanting to hit a reset button. We know that Putin | :05:39. | :05:43. | |
would happily send his troops into another sovereign nation to achieve | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
Russia's own ends, we saw that from Georgia, yet you still talked about | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
a reset button. Then, you are seemingly taken by surprise when he | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
did the same thing in Ukraine. Let's be clear. The President, when he | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
came into office in 2009, said, let's look at those areas that are | :06:04. | :06:13. | |
in difficult situations, and let's look at those areas. That worked in | :06:14. | :06:20. | |
Afghanistan, where US troops were able to use Russian infrastructure, | :06:21. | :06:28. | |
we worked very closely with Russia to put sanctions on Iran, to get us | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
to the point where we are today, where we have a negotiated solution. | :06:35. | :06:42. | |
We have negotiated a major strategic armaments agreement to reduce | :06:43. | :06:50. | |
nuclear weapons. No one had any illusions about who they were | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
dealing with in Russia, after all, this is the president who decided | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
not to have a summit with President Putin because there was nothing to | :07:00. | :07:03. | |
talk about. The issue of whether some would have seen what was going | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
to happen over the weekend is before us. Was President Putin going to do | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
the kinds of things he was going to do this weekend or next weekend, we | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
don't know? That is a judgement that the intelligence community made, and | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
frankly not just the US intelligence community, but every intelligence | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
community. Now we know, and we know that the situation needs to be | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
reversed, that we need to find a way back to a situation in which Ukraine | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
is in full control of not only its territory, but its own destiny. | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
Doesn't help, and I ask you this a diplomat, when some of the most | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
significant voices in the US, such as John McCain and Hillary Clinton, | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
like in what Russia is doing in the Ukraine to what the Nazis did in | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
Europe in the nineteen thirties? Is that helpful? We live in a democracy | :07:54. | :08:08. | |
where people can say what they want. As Robert Gates said in the | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
Washington Post this morning, we want to speak with an American | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
voice. We need to leave the question of what happened and how it happened | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
behind, and the United with a strategy, that works with the US and | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
European allies, to get what we want. Let's talk with some of the | :08:29. | :08:35. | |
partners that Ukraine has, and what might be on offer in terms of | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
assistance. Ihor Doldhov, you represent Ukraine at NATO, there has | :08:42. | :08:47. | |
been some talk, and one of your ambassadorial colleagues in Ukraine | :08:48. | :08:49. | |
has mentioned this already. There was a suggestion that the UN in | :08:50. | :08:56. | |
terms of a quid pro quo on assistance in the long-term, may be | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
looking for a payback. Ukraine agreeing to take some of the | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
infrastructure for the US missile defence system. You think that is | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
the way Ukraine should be handling this right now? Looking for those | :09:12. | :09:17. | |
sorts of tieups with the US, NATO and the West? All options are being | :09:18. | :09:24. | |
discussed. For Ukraine, it is not only a Ukrainian problem, but it is | :09:25. | :09:30. | |
a challenge for the globe, which we now have faced. It is about global | :09:31. | :09:36. | |
and European security. Some decisions will be taken after the | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
crisis is settled, and Ukraine will be put back on the right track, | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
without any foreign presence in my own country. If that is what is | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
being discussed right now, in terms of Ukraine's strategic teacher, if | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
NATO members led by the US are suggesting that in the long run | :09:57. | :09:59. | |
Ukraine might be part of a missile defence shield run by the US, surely | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
it simply proves Russia's point, that he we have a fundamental | :10:07. | :10:11. | |
confrontation which the Western powers are trying to tempt Ukraine | :10:12. | :10:20. | |
to become a part of the West European, US lead, military | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
alliance. It is Cold War mentality returning. I agree, so-called | :10:25. | :10:32. | |
Russian spring in Crimea is a comeback from Cold War. But what the | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
Ukrainian people want, what we would like to have, is we would like to | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
have Ukraine as a prosperous, independent state in Europe. Because | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
we are in Europe, and we believe that our future is in Europe. If we | :10:47. | :10:53. | |
talk about possible measures and military capabilities, Ukraine is | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
one of the strongest partners of NATO, we participated in all NATO | :10:59. | :11:14. | |
issues. In terms of NATO membership in the future, that is up to the | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
Ukrainian people to decide. Viktor Yanukovych was the politician in the | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
Ukraine who stood up against NATO membership, and he won a democratic | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
election, which was regarded as pretty much free and fair by the | :11:31. | :11:37. | |
rest of the world. Are we not in danger of talking ourselves into a | :11:38. | :11:49. | |
conflict, East West Cold War style conflict? I would agree with that. I | :11:50. | :11:59. | |
think when President Yanukovych was elected, and announced that Ukraine | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
was meant to be aligned with no one, including halting the prospect of | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
seeking membership of NATO, NATO accepted that. It was not an issue | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
of whether NATO liked it or not, it was an issue of whether Ukraine and | :12:12. | :12:15. | |
the officially elected government had decided that. This isn't about | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
where the Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, or even whether it signed | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
and Association agreement with the EU, it is really about whether | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
Ukraine as the government, and its people, can make decisions without | :12:28. | :12:35. | |
intimidation or foreign forces on their soil. Let me get back to the | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
issue of missile defence, because I don't want to leave it hanging. As | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
far as I am aware, and I spent a large part of the last four years in | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
NATO working on this, no plan, none whatsoever, for deploying missile | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
assets in Ukraine, or indeed anywhere else besides where we have | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
long said we would, as an alliance, like to see NATO missile defences, | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
which is on Alliance territory, in Romania and Poland. The idea that | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
this is about the deployment of missile defences in Ukraine is | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
really not correct. We have painted some of the strategic, big picture | :13:13. | :13:18. | |
ideas that have been brought into play over the last few days as | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
people have discussed the future of Ukraine. Specifically, Russian | :13:23. | :13:28. | |
forces we know are in control of Crimea, and, Ihor Doldhov, your new | :13:29. | :13:39. | |
PM has suggested that while he will never discuss any change to the | :13:40. | :13:43. | |
sovereignty of Crimea, that is, it must stay Ukrainian, he has said he | :13:44. | :13:47. | |
is prepared to talk about much greater autonomy. So, tell me what | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
you think a compromise over Crimea might look like. It is not about | :13:52. | :13:59. | |
compromise. Ukraine is a multinational country, and yes, | :14:00. | :14:04. | |
Crimea has a very special status within Ukraine. Yes, it is | :14:05. | :14:10. | |
autonomous. Yes, rights of autonomy could be expanded. There is nothing | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
strange in that. Of course, central government in Kiev, and Crimea, | :14:18. | :14:22. | |
should come back to that issue and discuss what could be done. Let me | :14:23. | :14:29. | |
be again very clear, the territory of Crimea is, for example, I am in | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
Brussels now, and Crimea is ten times bigger than Luxembourg, in | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
terms of territory. The population is around 2 million people. 60% or | :14:39. | :14:48. | |
more is ethnic Russian. Yes. More than 300,000 people in Crimea are | :14:49. | :14:55. | |
people who came back, returned, due to one of the very first an | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
important decisions of independent Ukrainian government, keen -- to | :15:01. | :15:11. | |
invite them to go back home from places... From when they were | :15:12. | :15:20. | |
deported by Stalin. The population is therefore a mixture. Of course we | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
have to remember that the economy of Crimea is mostly oriented on | :15:27. | :15:34. | |
tourism. The military presence of Russian troops doesn't help in that | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
sense. Of course local populations wouldn't be happy to have this | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
military presence at the expense of possible incomes and possible | :15:48. | :15:54. | |
tourism, which... Maybe it's for them to decide in a referendum, | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
which is what the Russians are talking about. A form of self | :15:59. | :16:01. | |
determination that they say they are willing to recognise. Recognise | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
what? What I know officially is that, yes, it can be discussed or | :16:06. | :16:13. | |
voted by the population of Crimea during the referendum. But more | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
rights and powers within Ukraine, not about separation. At the same | :16:20. | :16:28. | |
time... Sorry. I just want to switch to Ivo Daalder with this thought. Do | :16:29. | :16:33. | |
you think the new Ukrainian government that came into power | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
after Yanukovych departed the scene have made some fundamental mistakes? | :16:38. | :16:45. | |
For example, the decision to ban the use of Russian as the official | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
second language was later repealed but it was unimportant, symbolic | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
moment. Then the decision to include the very far right politicians as | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
senior ministers in the government. There was also the language which | :16:59. | :17:05. | |
said, we are going to pursue our European future. All of these in | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
different ways were bound to upset Russia. Do you think it is now time | :17:10. | :17:18. | |
for the new Ukrainian government to rethink and maybe reform itself and | :17:19. | :17:21. | |
send signals to the ethnic Russian and Russian speaking population that | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
they are truly seeking to be a government of all Ukrainians? That's | :17:26. | :17:33. | |
exactly what they have been doing from the moment they were in power. | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
They reached out immediately to the party of regions to be part of the | :17:38. | :17:43. | |
government. There was the repeal of a very recently enacted law in | :17:44. | :17:45. | |
regard to Russian languages, which was immediately vetoed. The repeal | :17:46. | :17:52. | |
of that law was vetoed. There has been a willingness to negotiate and | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
talk to all people in all countries around the world. The issue isn't | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
about what the Ukrainian government need to do. The issue is what the | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
Russian government decided. That it could determine what happens in | :18:06. | :18:10. | |
Ukraine, by not only authorising the use of force anywhere in Ukraine but | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
also saying that when any Russian speaking people needed protection | :18:15. | :18:17. | |
from Russian forces, they deployed Russian forces. As long as there is | :18:18. | :18:23. | |
a military power saying they have the right to intervene and has | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
actual forces in the territory, your ability to have a reasonable | :18:28. | :18:30. | |
discussion about the way forward is compromised. That is what is going | :18:31. | :18:36. | |
on here. Not what is happening in Kiev but what is happening in | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
Moscow. That's where the decisions are being made, where the insecurity | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
of Ukraine and Europe and the International order is being | :18:45. | :18:51. | |
affected. Until we get back to an idea that whatever the differences | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
and interests Russia may have in Ukraine, those are not going to be | :18:55. | :18:58. | |
solved by the use or deployment of military forces. We don't have much | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
to talk about. Washington believes it has to talk about potential | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
punishments. Economic sanctions, boycotts and other punitive measures | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
against Vladimir Putin and his government, if he doesn't exceed two | :19:14. | :19:24. | |
western requests and take the military out of their current | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
positions in Crimea. The problem is, you appear to have misjudged... The | :19:27. | :19:33. | |
US government seems to have misjudged the enthusiasm in Europe | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
for punitive sanctions. Well, we will see. It's early days yet. | :19:37. | :19:44. | |
Clearly, all European governments, and the US and Canada, indeed many | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
other governments around the world, believe that what has happened is | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
completely unacceptable. That it's a complete violation of international | :19:54. | :19:58. | |
law, of the Helsinki act, of the UN Charter, of the bilateral and | :19:59. | :20:05. | |
collateral agreements... But those are words which are easy to issue. | :20:06. | :20:13. | |
When we see leaked documents from big -- from the UK government which | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
suggest in London there is little appetite for real trade sanctions, | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
no desire to block Russian access to London as a financial centre, that | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
is the reality. We will see. There is a major meeting of the European | :20:29. | :20:31. | |
heads of state tomorrow in Brussels. That's the time when there is an | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
opportunity to put some of the screws on. We have to make the cost | :20:36. | :20:42. | |
to Mr Putin for having done this. Sorry to interrupt. That is easy for | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
an American to say. You don't have very strong trade ties with Russia. | :20:48. | :20:53. | |
Germany, 40% of its energy comes from Russia. Its biggest trade | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
partner. It's a different scenario in Berlin. I would turn it around. | :20:58. | :21:08. | |
In terms of the vulnerability economically, Russia is far more | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
vulnerable to sanctions than the Europeans. There might be a | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
short-term cost of having real sanctions, in the long-term, we know | :21:17. | :21:21. | |
where the cost lives. I'll tell you what... Sorry. There is a real | :21:22. | :21:29. | |
question here at about what you are willing to do. Right now, the | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
largest exporter of gas to Europe is Norway. The United States is in the | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
middle of a gas revolution, providing new opportunity for new | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
sources of energy. I would argue that we really sit down and think | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
about what is happening. You are talking, if I may, long-term shifts | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
in economic relations. I am talking now. Ihor Dolhov, if we talk | :21:53. | :21:59. | |
vulnerability, the most vulnerable player is Ukraine because your | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
economy is bust. The public finances are bust. You need support now. The | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
EU and US are talking about financial support but the only real | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
support you have in your pocket is from Russia, $15 billion, which is | :22:13. | :22:18. | |
now suspended. The bottom line is, Vladimir Putin has leverage because | :22:19. | :22:20. | |
he knows that Ukraine still needs Russia. I wouldn't put the question | :22:21. | :22:28. | |
like that. Who needs Russia and why. We continue to believe that there is | :22:29. | :22:36. | |
a global community and we need to continue daily business with all | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
players. Yes, Russia is a difficult partner. I remember very well, as | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
well as many, my friends in Brussels, the gas war with Russia. | :22:46. | :22:52. | |
It doesn't help. Yes, Ukraine is vulnerable. Yes, we are dependent. | :22:53. | :22:59. | |
Yes, we have possibilities to decrease this dependence. But, at | :23:00. | :23:04. | |
the same time, this dependence is bilateral because Russia also needs | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
the market to sell its gas or its oil. It just cannot be, I do know, | :23:09. | :23:15. | |
get for nowhere. Somebody has to buy it. The problem is Ukraine continues | :23:16. | :23:24. | |
to pay a price that's higher than... I just want to end with | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
this. You can't change your country's history, you can't change | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
its geography or its economic and cultural relations. The only way out | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
of this crisis is for you to talk and do a deal with Vladimir Putin. | :23:40. | :23:46. | |
We are waiting for this talk and we are open. Ivo Daalder, can it be | :23:47. | :23:54. | |
done? First of all, it requires the Russian government to accept the | :23:55. | :24:01. | |
legitimacy of the government in Kiev. It's hard to talk with a | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
government that's your existence. The change needs to happen in Kiev | :24:06. | :24:12. | |
and in Moscow. The question is, how will we make that happen? OK. Ivo | :24:13. | :24:18. | |
Daalder and Ihor Dolhov, thank you both very much for being on | :24:19. | :24:19. | |
HARDtalk. Good morning. If you heard a rumour | :24:20. | :24:49. | |
that weather conditions are settling down, keep listening. You might not | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
be disappointed. Now, we start with cloud and rain from this weather | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
front that's pushing in from the west. It might be a chilly start in | :25:00. | :25:02. | |
the extreme south-east corner. | :25:03. | :25:03. |