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Now it's Hardtalk with Stephen Sackur. | :00:00. | :00:20. | |
Welcome to a special edition of HARDtalk from western Poland where | :00:21. | :00:29. | |
forces for more than 20 Nato countries have joined the host | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
country for what is the biggest military exercise on European soil | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
since the end of the Cold War. And it comes at a sensitive time with | :00:39. | :00:44. | |
east European nations increasingly nervous about the intentions of | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Russia's president Vladimir Putin. My guest today is the outspoken | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
commander of the US army in Europe, General Ben Hodges. Is Nato ready to | :00:55. | :01:09. | |
respond to any Russian threat? Swooping over the plains of | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
north-west Poland, on the ground and elaborate wargame simulating an | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
invasion of Nato is mangled eastern flank. General Hodges, this is a | :01:19. | :01:25. | |
little map of Europe that you travel with, and when you look at this, | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
what do you see? It is useful to appreciate the geography, the fact | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
that the Russians had access up to the Baltic Sea means they have | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
access to countries up to France. What I also take from this note is | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
that Poland is tricky to Lee and extraordinarily important place. | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
Geographically it is like a keystone if you will from the top end of the | :01:48. | :01:55. | |
alliance, at Estonia down to Bulgaria, as far as this border, so | :01:56. | :02:03. | |
you are right. No matter a crisis in Romania or Estonia, you will pass | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
through the airspace and on the ground. Operation Anaconda was a | :02:07. | :02:14. | |
10-day exercise designed to show Nato's rapid response capability. | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
Hundreds of paratroopers were airdropped into the fight. Heavy | :02:19. | :02:26. | |
armour roared across the Polish plains. And infantry showcased their | :02:27. | :02:36. | |
urban warfare training. Nato has 28 members. They use different | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
equipment, train differently, speak different languages and they face to | :02:40. | :02:45. | |
the east a Russian leadership ready and willing to flex its military | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
muscle. Across the eastern border the Russians will be watching this. | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
The Russians say when Nato puts these big, big exercises on pretty | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
close to our doorstep it is nothing more than a provocation. No. Our | :03:00. | :03:06. | |
president said we will defend all Nato allies. The best way to prevent | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
crisis from happening is to show that you are ready. And so this | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
exercise is part of showing that we are going to do what it takes to be | :03:15. | :03:17. | |
prepared. When I see the big-screen presentation from the Polish | :03:18. | :03:24. | |
commander here, talking at about the red enemy, talking about the red | :03:25. | :03:30. | |
enemy taking the Baltic states and operating hybrid warfare tactics in | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
northern Poland, you know, it does seem to be a pretty clear, blatant | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
message to Moscow that you believe that is on Moscow's agenda. I think | :03:41. | :03:44. | |
political leaders all over the alliance have been saying that. I | :03:45. | :03:51. | |
mean, Russia has changed the security environment. Invaded | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
Georgia, in faded Ukraine. They scare the hell out of people in the | :03:57. | :04:00. | |
Baltics and in Poland -- invaded. Every country I go to that was a | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
former Soviet republic or a former Warsaw Pact member or is a neighbour | :04:06. | :04:12. | |
of Russia absolutely believes that this is a very real possibility. Do | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
you believe it? I absolutely believe it is a possibility. They only | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
respect to strength. And defensive strength is exactly what Operation | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
Anaconda was designed to showcase. The Germans and the Brits built a | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
bridge over this river. Nato wants Moscow to see this and be deterred | :04:33. | :04:40. | |
by it. The generals declared fair wargame a success but there is no | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
disguising the nervousness in Eastern Europe. There is a very | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
strong whiff of public relations about everything that's happening | :04:49. | :04:51. | |
here. The Polish government is very keen to deliver two clear messages. | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
One is that they are doing their bit to secure Europe's eastern flank but | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
number two is desperately wanting the Americans to stay committed to | :05:04. | :05:10. | |
Nato. Poland is one of the few countries to meet Nato's target on | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
military spending. But post the Ukraine crisis, Warsaw feels | :05:15. | :05:20. | |
vulnerable. I think most other countries which are on the eastern | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
border of the Nato would like to have the Americans, Brits and other | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
forces on their territories. So we are not the exception from the other | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
countries on the east border of Nato... When you say to the | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
Americans, we would like you to station permanent forces here, what | :05:41. | :05:47. | |
do they say to you? Of course, if we discuss the military, so there is | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
not any problem. At the final decision depends as always on the | :05:53. | :06:01. | |
politicians. -- but. This massive exercise was brought to a close with | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
Brave words about readiness and resolve. But Nato's 28 members are | :06:05. | :06:13. | |
beset with economic and political difficulties -- brave. The security | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
threats facing Europe are changing fast. And the alliance is struggling | :06:17. | :06:23. | |
to keep up. General Ben Hodges, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. Are | :06:24. | :06:29. | |
you ready to tell me where you think the weaknesses are in Nato's | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
capability today? You must have learned a lot from the last 10- 12 | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
days. Where are you worried right now? The thing I worry about most is | :06:38. | :06:43. | |
freedom of movement. Russians are able to move huge formations and | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
lots of equipment a long distance very fast. They are snap exercises | :06:47. | :06:55. | |
that they do I personally am surprised each time they do it -- | :06:56. | :06:59. | |
their snap. And so you can see why that scares me. You mean about the | :07:00. | :07:02. | |
speed and scale they can bring to bear? 20,000 troops and a lot of | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
Whitman shows up on the border of a Nato country or maybe somewhere like | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
Georgia or Ukraine that is concerning -- equipment. The | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
Russians have what we call freedom of movement on interior lines. They | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
can move anywhere inside Russia as fast as they want. In order for our | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
political leaders to have options other than the liberation campaign, | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
we need to match that same speed inside Nato. You don't have that | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
speed today. No. We need what I would call a military Schengen zone | :07:37. | :07:38. | |
that would allow the military to move inside, a British convoy, a | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
German or American convoy should be able to go anywhere inside Nato in | :07:44. | :07:50. | |
order to have the same freedom of movement. I am talking about three | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
days, three days' notification we ought to be able to do and we don't | :07:55. | :07:59. | |
have it right now. I think it is a necessary part of this deterrent | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
that the alliance is shifting from a sure to deterrence. You are saying | :08:04. | :08:06. | |
right now and in a frank way that right now you don't have deterrence | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
because the enemy, that's what you have called the Russians, they know | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
you can't do that. Deterrence is in the mind of the potential adversary, | :08:16. | :08:23. | |
obviously. I am uneasy about my ability to assemble quickly or for | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
others to assemble quickly, and so I will try to continue explaining why | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
it matters. It is not for our convenience. It is for the ability | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
to give political leaders options short of having to do and liberation | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
campaign. You have set in the recent past we have a grave lack of combat | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
aviation. You have also talked of the weaknesses in terms of | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability. At one | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
point you said we have no short-range air defence any more. | :08:53. | :09:00. | |
Things that shoot down UAVs, you go from Patriot missiles to an M4 | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
rifle. There is nothing in between. You are a guy who is exposing the | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
weaknesses of your own site. I think I have a duty to make sure that our | :09:08. | :09:15. | |
policymakers and planners understand clearly exactly where we are -- | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
side. Now, these are all decisions that have to be made, priority is to | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
be made. The US army is continuing to shrink. These are political | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
decisions based on budget. From your point of view are they the wrong | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
decisions? I don't have enough capacity to do everything that needs | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
to be done, but my army chief has said that. You don't have enough | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
capacity? A previous supreme commander has said that. We need | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
combat aviation. We need short-range air defence. We need long-range | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
fires. This is an extraordinary thing you are telling me. It is not | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
news. The army leadership has been saying this same thing... That is | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
the point, General. Senior top brass have been saying it month upon | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
month, year upon year and it hasn't been delivered. I think it is. It | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
will never be as fast as I would like to see. My country has spent | :10:12. | :10:14. | |
$3.4 billion bringing equipment back in to Europe. As a response to what | :10:15. | :10:23. | |
we see as a threat that wasn't there - we didn't see it, I didn't see it | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
that way until they went into Ukraine. When Russia went into | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
Ukraine that is when it became very real. In the great scheme of things, | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
it is actually a significant step by my government. I would put it to you | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
that your east European partners within Nato want a whole lot more | :10:41. | :10:47. | |
than you are giving them. The Obama administration talk about | :10:48. | :10:49. | |
reassurance and the reassurance initiative by putting one brigade | :10:50. | :10:52. | |
back into Europe isn't going to do it. The Polish President has made it | :10:53. | :11:00. | |
plain that he wants to see US forces permanently based, permanently | :11:01. | :11:02. | |
based, in Eastern Europe. Is that going to happen? I think what we | :11:03. | :11:10. | |
will see coming out of Warsaw is specifics on which nation is going | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
to do what with these enhanced forward presence battalions. The | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
Secretary General recently made the announcement that there would be an | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
increase in Nato troops that are in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
Poland. Permanently based US forces? There will be a rotational presence. | :11:31. | :11:37. | |
Ah, rotation. Again, president Duda, we do not want to be a buffer zone, | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
we want to be the real eastern flank of this alliance, and by that he | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
means, we don't want forces in West Germany or somewhere else which can | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
be in emergency centre wards us and it will take days to get there. We | :11:51. | :11:54. | |
actually want real commitment, men and material on our territory. My | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
President has said we will defend all of our Nato allies. That has | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
never been in question. What if they don't believe any more? I think they | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
do and we will continue to exercise here. We are going to continue to do | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
things that improve the overall collective security of this most | :12:17. | :12:18. | |
successful alliance in the history of the world. Part of what makes | :12:19. | :12:25. | |
Nato - I am speaking to you as a US army officer, US Army Europe - but | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
of course we are the contribution to Nato from the US, part of that, it | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
is a collective security alliance. 28 nations. Not every one of the | :12:37. | :12:42. | |
same threats. If you are in France, Italy, Spain or grease you are | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
seeing massive immigration problem and Islamic extremism as the main | :12:47. | :12:54. | |
threat. The alliance is not about just lining up all of our troops on | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
the border with Belarus or Russia or in Ukraine, it is about collective | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
security -- Greece. So, positioning decisions that our leaders will make | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
over the next few weeks will reflect that and maintaining the unity of | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
the lines. President Putin's number one objective is absolutely to | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
terror apart the unity of our alliance, so decisions will be made | :13:20. | :13:22. | |
that point be ideal for every country but they will be their best | :13:23. | :13:24. | |
to maintain the unity of the alliance. That's what I believe. You | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
say Putin wants to tear apart the alliance. He cannot stand the | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
alliance. Do you, as a very experienced infantrymen, general, | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
now the head of US army in Europe, do you believe that the Russians | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
over the next, say, five years, have a game plan to a certain military | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
presence, frankly, to undertake military aggression against the | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
Baltic states or other parts of the western backed eastern flank? I | :13:55. | :14:00. | |
think they started in 2007 with a modernisation effort, and with a | :14:01. | :14:09. | |
mobilisation effort to be in a place where they have the capability to | :14:10. | :14:18. | |
conduct any sort of operation to assert influence, whether it is | :14:19. | :14:22. | |
against a perceived provocation, which I don't believe that is their | :14:23. | :14:29. | |
narrative, or to a Serb-controlled and influence over what they think | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
is their rightful sphere -- or to assert. Andrew Monaghan from Chatham | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
House has done a lot of good work is planning this mobilisation not in | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
the old sense of mobilising troops but of all the institutions of | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
government as well as forces being at a level of readiness and | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
modernisation that would enable them to conduct sustained operations. | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
This is also within the context of hybrid warfare. It won't be like | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
what I grew up against in the 80s, long lines of Russian tanks and a | :15:04. | :15:06. | |
massive assault and artillery like that. Although that could be part of | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
it. Instead, if there is ever a crisis it will be within a nasty | :15:12. | :15:18. | |
cyber environment, misinformation, all elements of national power, | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
information, economic, as well is military. | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
We have seen over recent months a series of worrying incidents. We | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
have seen US naval vessels being buzzed by Russian aircraft, very | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
close. We have seen incidents in Scandinavia or enjoy involved naval | :15:39. | :15:44. | |
vessels. There is a sense in which the Russians appear to be pushing | :15:45. | :15:50. | |
the envelope. Do you fear there is a real possibility may be inadvertent | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
military confrontation between Nato, Western forces, and Russian forces | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
in this neighbourhood? We sure are concerned about that. During the | :16:04. | :16:10. | |
Cold War it was common that submarines and aircraft shadowed | :16:11. | :16:13. | |
each other. But there was almost an unwritten protocol about what was | :16:14. | :16:16. | |
acceptable, because everybody wanted to avoid a midair collision, or | :16:17. | :16:24. | |
submarines bumping into each other, and all the negative things that | :16:25. | :16:27. | |
would come out of that. What seems a bit different this time, recently, | :16:28. | :16:36. | |
is what I would describe as the unprofessional, to fly that close to | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
aircraft, to do certain manoeuvres. I'm in infantry soldier so I'm not | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
an expert on flying or maritime operations, but even a pedestrian | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
observer can tell that this is very unsafe. Russia wants to be treated | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
like a global superpower, they should act responsibly. And that is | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
not responsible. What is extraordinary is to reflect upon the | :17:01. | :17:04. | |
fact that in 2012 the Obama administration took a strategic | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
decision to draw down, significantly drawdown, US forces in Europe. I | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
think we all thought Russia was going to be a partner. That was | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
certainly the hope of this administration, previous | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
administrations. You remember President Bush meeting with | :17:24. | :17:29. | |
President Putin? I remember Russian soldiers being with us when we went | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
into to enforce the Dayton peace accords. So, for years you got it | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
wrong? No, but what I am saying is that Russia has changed. They had an | :17:42. | :17:48. | |
opportunity, a seat at the table. But somewhere, 2008, the invasion of | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
Georgia, the use of force to change the border of Ukraine, the things | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
that they are doing on their periphery, that is what has changed. | :18:00. | :18:06. | |
So, the alliance is responding, the US is responding to that. Today, you | :18:07. | :18:11. | |
see Russia as the enemy, right? I see it as the only potential threat | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
that can destroy it the US or the UK or Germany or any other country, | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
because of their nuclear force. They talk about nuclear weapons a lot, in | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
exercises they have threatened Denmark, Sweden, Poland and | :18:27. | :18:31. | |
Scandinavia as being nuclear targets. But that doesn't mean they | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
are going to do it. There is a difference between having the | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
capability to destroy the US. Islamic State have said they hate | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
everything about us, they want to destroy the US, the UK, France. They | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
don't have the ability to do it. We will be dealing with them for | :18:49. | :18:54. | |
decades. Let's stick with Putin for now. It seems to me that the context | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
in which we talk, that is that a generation ago 300,000 US troops | :19:02. | :19:09. | |
were stationed in Europe, and today pretty much 30,000. That has sent an | :19:10. | :19:12. | |
extraordinary message to the Russians. It has told the Russians | :19:13. | :19:16. | |
that the US government no longer has the will or the intention of | :19:17. | :19:24. | |
investing in the security of Europe. Obviously are completely disagree | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
with you on that. The fact is, we are bringing equipment and troops | :19:28. | :19:33. | |
back into Europe. Our government has made it clear to our allies that | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
they have a responsibility to take on more of a share, and frankly the | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
allies are stepping up. But they are not, are they? Of course they are. | :19:42. | :19:49. | |
At the Wales summit all the parties agreed that they would begin to take | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
on more responsibility, and the most well-known metric of the 2% of GDP. | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
How many of those countries are meeting that target? Today I think | :19:59. | :20:04. | |
we are at five. Out of 28? They gave themselves 20 years to do that, so | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
we are not even two years on. Keep that in mind. I think a number that | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
are either in increasing or have stopped the decline is something | :20:14. | :20:19. | |
like 28. I appreciate that you need to be, in terms of sending signals | :20:20. | :20:25. | |
to Moscow, you need to be a guy who is talking about a glass half full, | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
not half empty. But you yourself said not long ago, my task right now | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
is to make 30,000 US troops look and feel like 300,000. That is the best | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
you can do Vladimir Putin will not be impressed by that. I think he is | :20:39. | :20:43. | |
impressed so far. Our 30,000 of course is what is stationed here. | :20:44. | :20:47. | |
Creating opportunities in the way the U.S. Army has responded by | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
providing more reserve component forces to come over for exercises. | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
The fact that $3.4 billion has been spent just next year, if the | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
Congress approves it, to improve training and capability. We are | :21:02. | :21:05. | |
responding, but I have seen the UK, of course, has maintained that 2%. | :21:06. | :21:13. | |
They will be the lead nation for the joint task force next year. You say | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
the UK is one of the most staunch loyal partners. They are cutting, | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
the Cameron government is committed to cutting the army size from | :21:22. | :21:28. | |
roughly 100,000 a couple of years ago, down to 80000 x 20 20. When you | :21:29. | :21:40. | |
see that sort of cut, does it worry you? Every army chief has to balance | :21:41. | :21:47. | |
three competing requirements. The size of the force, the readiness of | :21:48. | :21:51. | |
the force, and the modernisation of the force. And so, if you have an | :21:52. | :21:57. | |
army that is at a certain size in order to maintain that structure you | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
have to rob from your own modernisation accounts or maybe from | :22:02. | :22:04. | |
the readiness accounts, which means training, maintenance and so on. So | :22:05. | :22:11. | |
what matters to me is less the size, and more the quality and capability. | :22:12. | :22:19. | |
Chief of General staff Nick Carter is one of the most innovative | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
officers I've ever known, and he is figuring out with whatever structure | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
he has, how does he make sure it is organised to deliver the effect? | :22:28. | :22:33. | |
That maybe so, but independent analysts are looking at it and they | :22:34. | :22:36. | |
don't like what they see. Chatham House has said there is a real of UK | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
military ability being hollowed out. The former defence secretary in the | :22:42. | :22:44. | |
US, a guy that you obviously know very well, he has said if the cuts | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
go through the UK can no longer be regarded as a full spectrum military | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
partner. There is real concern, isn't that? None of us has enough. | :22:54. | :23:01. | |
No country has enough land forces to do everything they have been asked | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
to do. There is a school of thought in your country, and maybe the | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
loudest express Rip that is Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
nominee, that in his world Nato is obsolete and it is not really needed | :23:16. | :23:18. | |
any more, and the US need be investing huge amounts of money and | :23:19. | :23:26. | |
material in Nato any more. The economic relationship between the US | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
and the EU is about five times more than it is anywhere else in the | :23:31. | :23:39. | |
world. So, for no other reason than stability and prosperity in Europe | :23:40. | :23:42. | |
affects our own stability and security. Our strong list allies | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
come from Europe, as well as Australia and Canada. We have | :23:48. | :23:50. | |
learned that we don't have the capacity to do anything by | :23:51. | :23:53. | |
ourselves, we will always need allies, partners, and Europe is | :23:54. | :23:59. | |
where they come from. Common values, shared collective security | :24:00. | :24:04. | |
commitments, I think that has survived for almost 70 years and I | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
actually feel that we are going to be able to continue that. General | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
Brad -- Dan Hodges, thank you for joining us. | :24:17. | :24:42. | |
It is the 20th of June, and since it is a leap year, | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
that means it is the summer solstice. | :24:47. | :24:47. | |
It might not feel very summary, but we will have 17 hours | :24:48. | :24:50. | |
It also coincides with the strawberry moon, | :24:51. | :24:53. | |
the full moon marking the start of the strawberry season. | :24:54. | :24:57. |