Sir Paul Collier, Economist HARDtalk


Sir Paul Collier, Economist

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Now on BBC News, it's time for HARDtalk.

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Welcome to HARDtalk I am Sarah Montague. The refugee crisis is one

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of the world's most enormous problems. 60 million people have

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fled their homes and countries. My guest today says the problem is

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fixable, and we can do it easily. He is the Economist, Professor Sir Paul

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Collier. The solution, he argues,

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is to give refugees jobs. In doing so he suggests

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everyone will benefit. But if the answer is so simple,

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why has it not been done before? Professor Sir Paul Collier, welcome

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to HARDtalk. Thank you for having me. You have said, of the Syrian

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refugee crisis, that it is entirely manageable, we can do it easily. Yet

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we are talking about millions of desperate people on the move. Why do

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you say it is so fixable? Because it is. The reason we have a mess is

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because of two reasons. One is that we have in international system

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which is hopelessly broken. We have a system built in 1950 that is

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completely unfit for the 21st century problems. We never changed

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it. We've got a broken system which was then confronted by a potentially

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perfectly manageable crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis. What the

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responses were were then a bunch of political headless chickens. They

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went through three phases, one was heartlessness, where they ignored

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the problem. Refugees fled to Jordan, Turkey and 11 on, and those

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three countries were left to bear the burden. That was the phase of

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heartlessness -- Lebanon on. Then, briefly, for about five months, we

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went to the phase of headless mess. And a small proportion of those

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refugees moved to Europe, We're not, we're talking less

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than a million Syrian There are 10 million

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displaced refugees. Most refugees, a large majority

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stayed put in the regional havens. Of course, there were other

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migrants, though, who joined Of course, of course,

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migrants and refugees are very But I interrupted you -

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that was the headless phase. And then, very rapidly,

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that door got slammed, and now we're back in the heartless

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phase - ship them back And you have said that

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if there had been - your words - "A timely application of the heart

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and the head," we could have And you went on to say,

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"There needs have been no deaths through drowning,

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no exodus of the skilled to Germany, Let's start with

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the drownings, right? The drownings were

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entirely avoidable. If Europe had wanted to open

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its doors to Syrian refugees, if, then the sensible thing to do

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was to provide a safe means of transport from

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the haven countries, right? The message "Swim to Europe" was not

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an intelligent message. It made it inevitable that

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what we would get would be the South American people smugglers

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coming in, the big criminal businesses, who then sold

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places on little boats. Not only did people drown,

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but because those places were so expensive, the average

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Syrian - a year's income was not OK, but to take on your point about,

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if we had applied the head and the heart, how are you saying

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that we should have done that? Go back to 2011, when the Syrian

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refugee crisis started. As I said, the refugees

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are not migrants. They're actually people who have

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chosen to stay in their country. They flee out of fear -

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fear of disorder, in some other We've got to write this book,

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Refuge, because Alex and I, my co-author, were brought

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into Jordan by the government... Yeah, yeah, we were brought

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into Jordan because the Jordanian government said, "Help,

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we've got a million refugees, it's a small country, pretty poor,

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what on earth do we do?" We were then taken to

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the main refugee camp. Alex, my co-author, director

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of the Refugee Studies Centre, I'm an economist who works

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on poor countries. I'm not really familiar

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with refugees. What I saw in Zaatari

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really deeply shocked me. These were people who

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were being warehoused, They've got free food

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and free shelter, that's the model of the camp,

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so that's the model we've run for over 60 years -

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feed them for free, clothe them And that's it -

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schooling, no, work, no. There was a light-bulb

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moment for you. We went to this camp,

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as I say, Alex was familiar, I wasn't, I was shocked,

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I was deeply moved. I was talking to refugees

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in their homes, I'm talking to a 16-year-old kid,

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"Are you at school?" It's a Portakabin,

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you know, a container. Brothers and sisters, "Oh, yeah,

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I've got an 18-year-old brother." 18-year-old brother back in Syria,

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what's he doing in Syria? And then our somewhat bored

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Jordanian government hosts said, "You know, actually,

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once we are here, we've got time to show you something

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that is really cool, we are pretty proud of,

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and nothing to do with refugees." "It's the King Hussein industrial

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zone that we've just equipped, ?100 million spent on it,

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15 minutes away." Great big industrial zone

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connected to the grid Because Jordanians didn't

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want to go there to work. So for four years, a big empty

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industrial zone which could have employed everybody in that camp

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was sitting empty, and nearly 100,000 Syrian refugees

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were sitting idly in a camp, OK, but before you come onto it,

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we should explain that the Jordanian government had approached

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you because you had a record, you are an Oxford academic,

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but you had worked for the World Bank, you had

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advised David Cameron, you had advised, recently advised -

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still advising, I think - Chancellor Angela Merkel,

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so you had a history of giving advice and being listened

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to by governments. I try and give practical

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under-the-radar-screen advice that I'm an economist, and so I work

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on poorer countries, But I try to come up with practical

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things that governments can do. So you are behind policies that

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David Cameron has come up with - as a result of your book

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The Bottom Billion and Plundering... So you say to the Jordanians,

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they take you to this ?100 million And so we say, "Can we put

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two and two together?" "Can we create some

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jobs in the camps?" What Jordan was really anxious

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about, the reason they haven't let refugees work was pretty obvious,

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that they couldn't provide enough jobs for their own citizens,

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let alone for refugees. So they saw letting

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refugees work as a threat. So what we suggested was,

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actually, you've got a big empty industrial zone,

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why is it empty? Because Jordanians don't

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want to work there and firms Why don't you use the fact that

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you've got all these refugees as an opportunity to get

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you on the map, to get Jordan noticed as a place where industry

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can come and bring jobs? We put that to the Jordanian

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government, and it was like a light Refugees could be an opportunity

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for our own economic development. And so they've developed what's

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called the Jordanian model now. And that involved, first, we went

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to Brussels, and we persuaded the European Commission

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to change its trade The European Community had got trade

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barriers against Jordan. Well, nobody is going to produce

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goods to sell in Europe So the European Commission agreed,

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OK, we'll give you ten years' open, Then I used my previous

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connections with the World Bank And they said, "Of course

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we are missing in action, Jordan is an upper middle income

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country, we're not allowed to work I said, "Ask the board, take

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a project on refugees to the board." They said refugees are nothing to do

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with the World Bank - UNHCR has a monopoly,

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has had a monopoly on refugees for the last 60 years,

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but it is a purely But if you're going to get

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people jobs, where are Who are the companies in whose

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interest it is to go to what arguably is a temporary

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setup, somewhere in another country? We've been doing that for decades,

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it's called globalisation. Germany has created thousands

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upon thousands, probably But we are talking

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about conversations that you first had two years ago,

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and it was launched a year ago - what companies are now

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offering jobs in Jordan? We've now got 39,000 jobs

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already created, right? You've got 39,000 refugees

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working in Jordan who That wouldn't have

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otherwise been working. And this is because of international

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companies saying... The whole thing only

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got launched last year, Last September, the king of Jordan,

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King Abdullah, said on CBS that Jordan has always been a place that

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opens its arms to refugees, but now, and he made the point,

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"A 20% increase in our population, such is the scale of the refugee

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crisis, the huge burden on our country, we are in dire

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straits," and he talked Most were in towns looking for work,

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driving up rents, 160,000 Syrian kids in Jordan's schools,

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unemployment skyrocketing, "Our health sector saturated,

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our schools going through difficult And he made the point

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about how difficult it is. In a way, this goes against that,

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doesn't it, if you're Not at all, because part of the deal

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is that the jobs come for both So the ratio that we are working

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to is for every 70 jobs for refugees, 30 for Jordanians,

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and so it's a win-win. So the companies come in,

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they create new employment opportunities, new firms

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in the zones, and those That model, the Jordanian model,

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has already been copied in Africa. The government of Ethiopia is doing

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it now in their industrial zones. So your argument that there have

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been 30,000 plus new jobs created, there have been, what,

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15,000 jobs for Jordanians? Yes, yes, yes, these

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are doable things, right? And don't forget, this is starting

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cold from a new idea, where no institution is used

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to doing it. If we'd had this system in place,

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if the global refugee system had been changed years ago,

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as it needed to be changed, if we'd had a system

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that was fit for purpose, But you've still got a problem,

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though, because you've got a neighbouring country,

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and your argument is, "Let's keep refugees local,

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because they ultimately But they have children,

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they need health services. The pressure on services,

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and the scale of this, whether it is Jordan or Lebanon

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or Turkey, we are talking about a massive influx of people

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that is really overwhelming The World Bank, in October,

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did go to the board, it did approve $300 million loan

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to Jordan on soft terms to provide jobs in the industrial zones

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for refugees and Jordanians, the first loan it had ever done

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on refugees in 60 years, and at the same time approved soft

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money for Lebanon to provide schooling for children,

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for refugee children. So we can use international

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aid money both for jobs and for the social services that

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are being stretched OK, so your argument is extend

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the rights of the refugees in a way, not just shelter and food,

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keep those, but put alongside Of course, and a right

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to decent social services, But the moment you do that,

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you have effectively incentivised them to stay,

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because the argument that they should remain local

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is that they will go home. But if you effectively create

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a new parallel life, where it is still going to be years,

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and they have invested perhaps in a business,

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why would they then go home? Well, most people,

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actually, want to go home. Don't forget, these people,

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that is mostly what they Conflicts do end, and you can think

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of this as actually incubating the jobs that can move back

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to the post-conflict society. When Syria gets back to peace,

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which it will, the firms that are operating in Jordan,

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if there were workforce, a lot of their workforce wants

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to go back to Syria, they can set up

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an operation in Syria. One of the miracles of capitalism

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is that it's not a zero-sum game. If it's profitable in Jordan,

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it can stay in Jordan. If a chunk of your workforce

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is already skilled and trained and wants to go home to Syria,

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you can set up So give us an example of a company

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that is employing people now One of the things that

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happening is who needs refuge Not just Syrian people -

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Syrian businesses. And so now Syrian businesses

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are moving to the zones, weren't allowed to do before -

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there was no protection So businesses that were operating

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in Syria are moving to Jordan If you were being bombed to bits

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in Aleppo, you might think it's They're getting jobs

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for their own people as well. As I say, capitalism

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is not zero-sum. If you set up a succesful

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firm in Jordan, why Even if you can then restart

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the operation back in Syria. Earlier this month, we had the mayor

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of a town in Lebanon, the mayor of Naameh,

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called Charbel Matar, saying, "We have to stand

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with our own people first before we stand with the Syrians,"

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and he was saying that as he was issuing a decree to order

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businesses owned or operated by Syrians to close,

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which was in keeping with the law. Yeah, I mean, that's

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tragic, isn't it? So it's no good lecturing

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the government of Jordan, saying, It's no good preaching -

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we've got to make it in the government of Lebanon's

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interests to do things that are helpful to refugees,

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as well as to their own population. But their population is 4.5 million,

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they've got more than 1 I mean those are just numbers

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that are unsustainable, I think that's probably right,

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I think Lebanon is kind When you get to that

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stage, you need... Actually, before you get to that

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stage, you need some sort of threshold which says,

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now other countries have got What about something

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like what you called the headless policy of Chancellor Angela Merkel,

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allowing in many refugees Why has that, in your

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terms, not worked? Well, I think, first of all,

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it was a noble gesture, so I'm still working

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with the Chancellor - this was a noble thing to do, but it

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wasn't a thought-through thing. It was done very quick decision,

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wasn't thought through. You're working very closely with her

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at the moment, you speak to her, you tell her it was a mistake

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and she says what? She's reversed the policy -

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I don't need to tell her it was a mistake,

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she's reversed the policy. Has she acknowledged

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to you that it was a mistake? Of course not - politicians don't

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use words like mistakes, do they? Something like less than 5%

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of the Syrian population is in Europe, but something

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between a third and a half of all Syrians with university

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educations are now in Europe. And your argument that it's

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a tragedy is because, ultimately, They're the very people who will be

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needed to rebuild the country. I do a lot of work

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on post-conflict countries. The real bottleneck

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is skilled people. But so German policy, you advise,

:19:53.:20:02.

should be to encourage them It depends how long

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it is before they can go back. At some stage, it's obviously

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sensible to think that But at the moment, yes, it's too

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soon to settle people for life. They should be basically

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prepared with the skills Germany is the ultimate successful

:20:25.:20:26.

model of high-skill, high-training, high-credentials,

:20:27.:20:29.

high-minimum-wage job market. So Syrians, even those

:20:30.:20:31.

with a university education, are utterly unsuited for the jobs

:20:32.:20:33.

that Germany has, unfortunately. It would be far easier for Germany

:20:34.:20:36.

to create jobs for refugees So those refugees, Syrian

:20:37.:20:41.

refugees in Germany, They'd be the elite -

:20:42.:20:54.

they'd have a job, yeah. I'm not in the business

:20:55.:21:06.

of sending people back. But that is the logic

:21:07.:21:10.

of your position. The German government,

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I would remind you, is actually sending people back,

:21:19.:21:20.

that's the model now. I believe it's sensible

:21:21.:21:22.

for Europe to take some. One of our principles is solidarity,

:21:23.:21:25.

everybody, every country has a duty of rescue,

:21:26.:21:27.

and that duty of rescue You talk about politicians acting

:21:28.:21:30.

as headless chickens, you also talked about an international system

:21:31.:21:39.

that was broken - in part, because it's dependent on the UNHCR,

:21:40.:21:42.

which you say is effectively working to laws that were devised

:21:43.:21:46.

just after 1950. We have a situation now

:21:47.:21:48.

where the president, the new American president,

:21:49.:21:50.

is talking about cutting funding, a 28% budget cut to diplomacy

:21:51.:21:52.

and foreign aid, and that would include the money

:21:53.:21:55.

that goes to the UNHCR, and America funds more

:21:56.:21:58.

than a quarter of the UNHCR. Given how critical you are of it,

:21:59.:22:01.

do you see that, actually, We talk a lot with UNHCR,

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and one of their responses to our argument is, "We are not

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a job agency." Well, that is true,

:22:21.:22:23.

UNHCR isn't a job agency, but unfortunately what refugees most

:22:24.:22:26.

need is a job agency. So either UNHCR changes staffing,

:22:27.:22:28.

skills up, and actually becomes capable of operating in the economic

:22:29.:22:31.

space, getting business Or we bring in other agencies that

:22:32.:22:34.

are already doing that - The tragedy of the last 60

:22:35.:22:53.

years is UNHCR has had a monopoly, and it's

:22:54.:22:57.

a humanitarian-only mandate. And so it's what,

:22:58.:22:59.

contributed to the problem? Yes, it's perpetuated

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a problem that shouldn't have You know, world numbers

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of displaced and refugees But Richard Gowan, who's a UN expert

:23:05.:23:07.

at the European Council on Foreign Relations,

:23:08.:23:20.

talked about the cuts, saying they would cause chaos

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and leave a gaping hole that other The camps, the free food,

:23:23.:23:26.

the free shelter - The whole we need to fill,

:23:27.:23:34.

which is at the moment a glaringly Tragically, at the moment,

:23:35.:23:39.

most politicians are reacting The narrative has become,

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"We've got to keep refugees out, When you talk to people

:23:44.:23:46.

about refugees now, instead of their instinct being compassion,

:23:47.:23:50.

the instinct is fear. The big asset that refugees should

:23:51.:23:52.

have is automatically triggering the compassion of the vast

:23:53.:23:55.

bulk of humanity. Paul Collier, thank

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you for coming on HARDtalk. Our weather's set to turn a little

:24:13.:24:14.

bit milder over the next couple of days, quieting down

:24:15.:24:46.

in many respects. But before we get there,

:24:47.:24:48.

yesterday we had some really big thunderstorms around,

:24:49.:24:51.

this one brought some hail to West

:24:52.:24:54.

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