30/06/2011 Newsnight Scotland

Tonight, who will be Inverclyde's and UMP, and will the by-election

result have ramifications beyond Greenock? We will have the results

like when it comes in. And the views of some of our most senior

Westminster politicians who will be here at Pacific Quay. Also, the

latest in the drama of the Edinburgh trams. Will they are want

they cancel the whole shooting match? And how have Scotland's

government responded over the strikes over cuts and pensions. I

can't tell you when the programme will finish tonight. That will

depend when the vote counting starts in Inverclyde. Laura Bicker

is at the count in Greenock. What is happening, if anything?

votes are currently being verified. A couple of people have gone off

for a coffee break. The fact that we have a number of politicians who

are jittery and full of nerves is testament to how a Scottish

parliament have changed. This time last year, David Cairns took this

seat with 14,416 votes. This is AC twitch Labour have held for about

80 years in one form or another. The Labour candidate should be down

there with his feet on the table waiting for his vote to be counted.

Instead, they have been out their rallying because of the encroaching

SNP vote. Tonight, the Labour camp do seem more confident than they

have been over the last couple of weeks. However, if the SNP have

encroached on the majority, it will be a major scalp even for them to

do that. You are saying that Labour seem more confident. What are the

SNP saying, do they seem down in the dumps? No, no one is down in

the dumps here tonight. What we are looking at is a picture that nobody

really knows what is happening. That in itself is a testament to

how Scottish politics have changed. We have a majority of 14,416 votes

put a stop to see that in any way slashed will be a major victory. At

the moment, even Labour, who were trying to tell us earlier that

there are liberal pockets throughout this seat, that perhaps

they are not sure where they voted. They needed two things to happen

today. They needed their traditional Labour vote to help --

hold, and they also needed the Labour voter to come out. We are

not sure what that turnout is like. We are clearing estimates of around

the early 40s. At the same time, we have had John Prescott here, Ed

Miliband, all the big hitters, all the people to persuade that Labour

voter to come out. That's why they really needed, because the SNP have

been encroaching on the Labour vote throughout the past couple of weeks.

Alex Salmond has even been outside the polling stations tonight. This

is his 7th visit here in the last couple of weeks. His almost been

camped out in Inverclyde. We will be back to you later on. Throughout

the evening my colleague Raymond Buchanan will be outside the studio

with a panel of politicians. Raymond. I am joined by the SNP MP

Stuart Hosie, also by Labour's Douglas Alexander, Jo Swinson of

the Liberal Democrats is here also. As is the Scotland Office minister

David Mundell. All of whom will be potential colleagues for whoever is

the next Inverclyde MP. It is very early, we have no idea when the

result will come in, but this is a by-election Special, and we

specialise on these programmes in gossip until we get an actual

result. Let's catch up with Stuart Hosie. The SNP put an awful lot of

effort into this by-election. What are you clearing from the polls?

This is a by-election nobody wanted. We'd all rather David Cairns was

with us, but we've had to get on and do the job. The problems, I

can't really tell you very much because the turnout across the

constituency vary widely. At 7pm there was 40 % turnout in some

areas but then there were only 20 % in others. It's a mixed picture. We

will have to wait until some of the boxers are open and we get some

real information. A sow the SNP, with all its famous software when

it comes to elections, you still haven't got much detail. There are

massive differential turnout. We are confident our vote will go up.

We only got 17.5 % last time but I'm sure we'll be doing much better.

But in terms of calling this the turnout across the constituency are

so varied, I wouldn't put a call on it tonight. Douglas Alexander, what

we are hearing is that Labour have held on to this seat, is that what

you're hearing? I hope so. I've spent the last 12 hours, I came

straight from Greenock here to the studios. We've been working flat

out to try and mobilise the Labour vote. If you look at the

Westminster boundaries of this seat and apply the last Scottish

Parliament results, Bennett's the SNP's seat to lose rather than

eight safe Labour seat. We are going to work flat out to try to

listen and learn and hopefully win that support. I would agree that

the turnout, we were predicting it would be in the low 40s. That was

four hour dart our specialists were saying that. One of the determining

factors will be which party has managed to mobilise within those

areas where the turnout was lower. We were getting a very positive

response from some of the doorsteps from the undecided people, they had

and made their mind up until a couple of weeks ago. Jo Swinson,

your party had the disaster a couple of months ago in the

Scottish parliamentary elections. Is this going to be a year when we

see the comeback of the Liberal Democrats or yet another disaster?

It's very early days. This has been a very short campaign. It's one

that is in tragic circumstances that nobody wanted to have. There

does come very shortly after what was undoubtedly a very bad night

for as in May. I don't think... While we don't make many

predictions at this stage of the programme, I don't think it's a

wild estimate for me to say we expect the Liberal Democrats to

storm to victory or have a wonderful result tonight. Better

than 5th? We will have to wait and see what the results are. It has

been a hard-fought campaign, particularly where you have two

parties - the SNP having done very well last month, this was a seat

that the SNP thought they had a chance of gaining and Labour

thought they had a chance of losing. That has been a hard-fought contest,

which can often mean for other parties their vote can be squeezed.

But we've had an excellent candidate in, Sophie Bridger, was

brought enthusiasm to the campaign. We have to wait and see what the

votes sake. David Mundell, elections are often an exercise in

hope. For the Conservatives, quite a lot of hope if you expected to

win this. You will fall off the last time the Westminster seat back

row was contested, where do you think you will be this evening?

hope we will have moved up the position. Our objective going into

this by-election, which was a very unfortunate one, David Cairns was a

really great guy. I regard David as a personal friend. The fact we are

having this by-election is very sad indeed. Our objective was to come

third in this election and to hold our deposit. This is an election

where people see the main protagonists as Labour and the SNP.

We wanted Conservative voters to come out and vote conservative. We

had an excellent candidate in David Wilson, who was a well-known, local

person. You could see that in his own area, everybody knows and

respect him. Did you tell the voters you were only hoping to come

third? We were out to win every vote we could. But we are realistic

going into an election where we finished fourth. A seat where even

back when in 1992, the last two Conservative government that was

elected, we weren't even a protagonist in this by-election. We

are realistic in assessing our own chances. But in terms of votes in

an election, you want every single person who wants to vote for your

party to come out and do so. I think there is some evidence in our

own picking up on the day that some Conservatives have voted Labour

because they were concerned about the rise of the SNP. I think that

may well be something that we will Or externally from a by-election

for a moment. Today, the PCS union claimed 30,000 other members went

on strike in Scotland against the UK government's plans for pension

reform. South of the border, around one-third of all schools were

closed. The government insists 75% of all civil servants worked as

normal and disruption at airports was minimal.

The unrest in Athens yesterday near the Greek parliament showed just

how strong feelings can get when people are told their pensions will

be cut, and they will have to work longer and contribute more. Here,

things tend to be done rather differently, but the Public and

Commercial Services Union, PCS, say feelings run as deep as elsewhere.

The pickets were out in front of the Houses of Parliament, taking

their cases directly the politicians. The state -- the

strike caused closure of thousands of schools and offices. Those who

say pensions are afford will need to say which hospitals and schools

they will close down. Witch doctors and nurses and teachers they would

make redundant in order to pay for continuing subsidies to public

sector pensions. We want public sector pensions to be among the

best available, but people are living longer, so it is fair that

they should work for longer and have a longer retirement. It is

fair that they should pay more so that the balance between what other

taxpayers pay and what they themselves pay is more balanced.

Wales, the Welsh assembly was picketed in what the piece CSA was

the best supported strike they have ever had. At Holyrood, members were

on the picket line making a point it MSPs, even though they have no

direct control over pensions. Scottish government has shown that

support. In general, we support the fact they have a claim. The way the

UK Government is going about this is certainly not directly.

Glasgow's George Square was the scene of the main Scottish Rally,

attended by around 700 people, although the PCS the around the

30,000 members took part in a day of action across the country. They

have done their sums and they don't like it is added up. I have also

been asked to take a cut in my pension and pay more contributions

towards it. I did not cause this problem, it was the casino bankers

who brought this country to its knees. We will find that in the

years to come, more and more of our pensions will be whittled away.

Where there's goal, everyone else's will follow. At Faslane nuclear

submarine base, civilians arrived for the start of their working day.

Managers attending airport say there was no disruption even though

this is probably their busiest day of the Year. Clyde coastguard were

hit. Pickets made their case outside of Glasgow's passport

office. Visitors and those working at Edinburgh Castle had to decide

whether to cross a picket line there. I think it is important to

put an end to the myth. People say that we have gold-plated pensions.

The average civil servant takes on a pension of �80 a week. I will

repeat that: at �80 a week. People that have gold-plated pensions are

MPs and senior bankers, who have got in all of these bonuses despite

getting us into this mess in the first place. Today, life in Athens

was resembling to -- or returning to something resembling normality.

Today, the anger and passion was in place in Glasgow, London and

Newcastle. Today's protests could be the first of many.

I enjoyed now by Lynn Henderson, Scottish Secretary of the PCS.

Before we get into the rights and wrongs of this, I am curious as to

how it works. Are all of your members in Scotland working on

pension schemes that are UK-wide pension schemes, and therefore the

same as your colleagues down south? No. We have a number of members in

the commercial sector, and privatise the areas and their

formerly civil servants. All other civil service membership are in the

UK Civil Service pension scheme. The Scottish government in a way

has nothing to do with this, even though you guys are its civil

servants? The point of devolution that meant that the UK Civil

Service was retained, but what the Scottish government does have power

over is a native pay that its members get, and that is something

they can do about. It is not their responsibility to either reform the

pensions often not reform than? have power in the Scottish garment

to do something about the pensions. What have you achieved today?

have achieved a massive turnout of our membership across Scotland. In

every single part of Scotland from Shetland to Dumfries. This is shown

the power and the strength in Scotland. We were striking a loan,

we were not sticking with the teaching unions as they were down

south. We have seen a rally in George Square today and support

after support from all the major unions in Scotland, prepared to

stand with us in the future. problem you have is that if

teachers go on strike, it is a big deal. Parents have to find

alternative care for the children, it causes all sorts of disruption.

Civil servants at Holyrood go on strike, do people really care?

think definitely. If you look at cities there, you see the picket

line at the Faslane where there had to bus in people from York. If you

look at the passport office where I was this morning, people turning up

for passports had to be turned away. If you look at services in

Jobcentres and tax offices, courts were close today. Theatre 5 courts

in Dundee did not sit. If you look at the prostate -- Procurator

Fiscal Service, all of these are key public services they did not

function as normal today. There are many people who do not work in the

public sector and they may say private sector pensions are

changing to go to the public sector, it is not fair that, firstly,

everyone in the public sector get a better pension and secondly that I

have to pay for it. We also pay taxes to. We also pay as taxpayers

for private sector pensions. We are all in this together. Everyone

keeps saying this. It is not the race to the bottom, but isn't that

perfectly reasonable for the government to say, as it does, we

are not in -- instigating a race to the bottom. We're not proposing

that pensions and the public sector should be taking away from you, or

indeed that it should be put down to the level of private sector

pensions which depend on the performance of the stock market.

They are not racing to the bottom, they are simply saying that some

adjustments need to be made to save money. That is a fallacy. The

Public Affairs Committee, the National Audit Office, have all

said that civil service pension scheme is affordable, sustainable

and reducing costs. There is no need to reduce the cost of the

pension scheme and the way that is being undertaken. To be accurate, I

think they graph they were talking about on Newsnight earlier shows

that from 2015 their share of GDP taken up by paying for public

sector pension Stark's to decline. I do not think it is declining at

the moment. It is a sustainable scheme. It is a not about saying

let us increase contributions of people get more at the end. That

money is going into the Treasury's coppers to pay the deficit. We have

an alternative way of dealing with the deficit and that is not about

taking money away from public sector workers. Our members get an

average of �80 a week. That is hardly gold-plated compared to some

of the top level of the private sector pensions. What is the

solution you have? Our solution is tax justice. We believe that

instead of taking the money from public sector workers' pockets, we

should collect �120 billion annually that goes out of this

country in tax avoidance and tax evasion. It is quite simple and

quite straight forward. Every tax worker in this country, but Mac

leads invest in the people that the right to deliver the services.

is a bit knockabout, isn't it? The government is doing with a serious

issue here. Of course, everyone would like to see tax-avoidance cut

down, but there are any number of people, both in the public sector

and the private sector, he would be lining up to say here is one of the

intended billion pounds and here is our plans for its. It is not quite

clear why you should be at the top of that you? A it is �120 billion a

year. Where is that money going? Willey making public sector workers

pay for something you did not cause? We will have to leave it

there. Thank you very much indeed. Let's return to the Inverness by-

election votes which are currently being counted, but additionally

they had been weighed for the Labour Party. David Cairns held it

with a 14,000 majority. Ashok campaign has seen the SNP vying for

victory. Raymond Buchanan has been following the campaign.

The loss of David Cairns was a terrible tragedy. For his family

and loved ones and also thought the Labour Party and across Scotland.

Use of the turnout today from political colleagues and people

across the political spectrum, and the community here. You can see the

esteem in which he was held by many people. This was an election nobody

expected. David Cairns was just 44 when he died in May. He represented

the area for a decade. Labour chose a quick by-election campaign. The

eyes of the country focused on Inverclyde. There is not much in

this town for young people. You either go out and drink or take

drugs, that is pretty much this whole area. There is nothing much

else to do. Are you looking for a job? In this area, there is no

point in even looking for a job because there isn't any. There are

no shops open, the places derelict more or less. And surprisingly,

employment, or the lack of it, was a big issue of this campaign. The

UN and educated are leaving behind the old and dependent. The local

council says the area's future is in jeopardy. The SNP picked an

unemployed former M -- MSP as their candidate. The two front-runners

clashed on telly, not over creating jobs by taxing them. And the

council, you're in a position where council workers will be

disadvantaged. Absolutely not. I will say now. Are you guaranteeing

no compulsory redundancies? There will be no compulsory redundancies

and a never will be. I agree with the in their... Labour hope to hold

onto the seat by promising a plan for jobs and cutting knife crime.

What of the other contenders? Eventually the Lib Dems chose a

fresh-faced 22-year-old student as a candidate. A sign of confidence?

We did not have a problem finding a candidate but obviously it was not

easy. Not many people were happy to stand after the beating we did it

the Scottish election. We were absolutely delighted when Sophie

Bridger elected to stand. Is it fair to say that for the Liberal

Democrats and Inverclyde this is more about rehabilitating the party

than it is about seriously challenging at Westminster? I think

that is probably quite true in some ways. As I said, I don't think we

series the thing she will win. Nevertheless, what they will hope

to achieve is to prove to the people of Inverclyde at we're still

here, despite what happened a month or so ago. We're still here and

David Wilson was the Tory hopeful, well, hope for in a loose sense of

the word. I'm heading for second. I'm within 400 votes of the Lib

Dems. It's not unachievable. Turn of this group, which is what we

intend to do. 62. Alex Salmond took to the bingo halls as the party

big-hitters swept into town. The victor of last month's historic

election was predicting another seismic shock. I think this is

earthquake proportions if we win this seat. This is one of the very

few seats we didn't win from the Labour Party in last month's

elections. We didn't win the last by-elections that they had, did he?

He's doing it again. He's a bit of a street fighter, that's what he

does. The bear was one more controversy that failed to get much

attention. Let's call it strictly come up snubbing. This was at a tea

dance for the elderly in Port Glasgow town hall yesterday. I was

there talking to somebody, some of the elderly folk, and the SNP

candidate arrived. I asked if I could have the pleasure of the next

dance. She snapped me. She said she didn't want to dance with me. I

felt very hurt by that. Be cos you are a Tory? I think it was. I was

told it was because I was a member of the coalition. I didn't to snub

him. I told him that when I am his MP I will dance with every one of

my constituents. The you know come back because he's a Tory? Yes.

There's a scandal for you. Raymond may have gossip, but here we have a

panel who will give you quite extraordinarily high-falutin

analysis. In London, we have Michael White, who rides for the

Guardian. In Edinburgh, George Kerala. In Glasgow, Lorraine

Davidson of the times. And Alf Young of Inverclyde' urban

regeneration company. Michael, I know you have to leave us for a

while. Let's start with you. I imagine that neither Nick Clegg nor

David Cameron are biting their fingernails waiting for this result,

but may be Ed Miliband is. Labour doesn't like setbacks in Scotland,

which you know his Heartland country. Gordon Brown suffered a

few knocks before he lost office last year. On the other hand, David

Cairns was a popular fellow, died young of a nasty disease. In my

experience, that often helps out a successor candidate. With a

majority like this one, I don't imagine Mr Miliband has gone to bed

expecting to lose this one unless somebody has sidled up to him, and

they sometimes do, and say bad news coming from the north, boss. I

don't thing that's happened in this case. What is your sense of what

this would mean to Labour across the UK if the SNP won, or even if

the SNP just knocked a huge dent in Labour's majority? In politics,

like football or horse racing, winning is winning. If you won by a

whisker, that's good enough. I think Labour, the defeat in the

Holyrood elections in May, it won't get much worse than that. This

would be another cherry on the cake for Alex Salmond. He's had a

tremendous double stag nobody on either side of the border expected

the SNP to get a majority at Holyrood. I thought that was how

the whole system was designed, that nobody, not even Labour, was

supposed to get a majority. I don't think it changes the way that much

either way. But if he lost it wouldn't do the man any good, and

he's not having a terrific time. He's doing better than the

newspapers say. You say better than the newspapers say, you are from

the newspapers, I'm curious... The impression one gets his the

whispering about Ed Miliband is coming from newspapers, but is it

also coming from within the leadership of the Labour Party at

the moment, or is it just a media thing, they decided he is a bit of

a lemon? The media would do that anyway. We all expected. David

Miliband, we expected him to win. There is always whispering in

political parties. A point of comparison, I think it's legit that

if you consider the state of the Labour Party after the last time it

lost office, 1979, when there were three or four macro years of civil

war before Neil Kinnock began to get a grip on the party. You

compare that with what happened after the last time the

Conservatives lost power in 1997, where the war of Thatcher's

succession rumbled on for years. Until Michael Howard took it. So

far they are in much better shape. They are not falling apart, they

are just not very inspiring and voters aren't interested in them

yet because they haven't yet begun to feel the coalition has committed

such crimes and incompetence is, they've got to find somebody else

to vote for in a hurry. You are still at that early stage of the

parliament and Ed Miliband is holding his own a bit. Why he

wanted the job, you never ask that in politics because they all say,

my time has come. They follow their instincts. It's tough being laid --

leader of the opposition when you've just lost. There is a. Of we

are in very early days after the SNP winning its majority. I'm sure

you would like the SNP to win tonight, but there's an odd sense

in which unless Labour somehow or other increased its majority over

the SNP, which no one thinks is likely, that the SNP can't really

lose this. If they win this seat it's fantastic. If they take a

chunk out of Labour's majority, they will say it has been a Labour

seat forever. I think you are right. What was interesting to me was the

fact that the Labour Party seemed to throw everything, including the

kitchen sink, into this campaign. They were a bit worried about it.

One of the fascinating things about Inverclyde when you go there is

it's very much like Scotland in the 1970s. I went down whole streets

where you didn't see an Asian name or a Polish name. The SNP tens to

do well in populations where there is aspiration. The problem for the

poor folk in Inverclyde is the economy has imploded and they hope

seems to have gone. You seem to be slightly implying that you think

the SNP's hopes of winning this might have gone as well.

personally think it was always a difficult one. What we know is

about a third of the Labour voters in the general election last year

switched to the SNP in May. If you factor that into David Cairns's'

vote last year, 56 %, the SNP still can't quite get there. What is

important is for the SNP to continue to show this surge that

it's seen in the West of Scotland, which is historically unique. If it

can maintain that, it can maintain that third of the voters who

switched to the SNP and get them to vote in the referendum for

independence, then the SNP wins the final game. George put his finger

on something there. If Labour did lose this would be relatively badly

in it, they've got no one to blame but themselves because everyone and

his Auntie has been out there trying to win it for Labour.

They've had all the big guns out. But few are the big guns? They had

Ed Miliband AB, who I don't think has really connected with the

Scottish electorate as yet. He was up for the Scottish elections a

month ago and didn't really do much then. They don't have a leader in

Scotland at the moment. They are bringing out John Prescott, who is

a great campaigner, but I think there's a problem. They had Gordon

Brown as well. I think you need to be a current politician for voters

to really give you that proper respect. If you are trying to

balance the Labour big hitters against Alex Salmond, they are

still struggling. Until they have a leader whose main aim is to get

things on track in Scotland, they are going to struggle against Alex

Salmond. So you think Ed Miliband just doesn't have the kind of

profile that would enable him to get close to that? Definitely not.

I don't think Scottish voters particularly take to him. He's very

new in the job. David Miliband was on the doorsteps in Inverclyde and

was being introduced to people. People were opening their doors and

they were saying, you will know who this is, they were met with blank

stares. I think both David and Ed Miliband of people whose careers

have been in London. He hasn't made that breakthrough in Scotland yet.

It's too soon, he doesn't have the hinterland that Gordon Brown had.

To expect him to be able to come off and pull it off, people were

always divided by Tony Blair and how well even he did. The guy that

won them all the landslide elections, how welcome he was in

Scotland, particularly towards the end. At the moment, there is still

this big vacancy in terms of leadership within leader -- within

Labour, where Alex Salmond has consolidated. He has got that great

victory a month ago and he is the man of the moment. He still has

that momentum. He has visited Inverclyde seven times. He is still

carrying that thing with him and saying to the voters, I am the

right decision. People do like to back winners. They do see Alex

Salmond as a strong political figure. Labour have still got this

vacuum at the top of not having the political figure and still

struggling on the political message. Is your sense that they will hang

on, Labour? I think they will hang on. The SNP will/that majority. In

Inverclyde, you have an area that has pockets of strong Lib Dem vote.

I think that David Cairns factor will be significant. There is a

politician who was a man who was really respected and have the

common touch but was a politician of great standing, one of the best

at Westminster. Alf Young, what's your impression been of this

campaign? I was on holiday for most of it! I didn't see a great deal of

it. I was down once last week for a board meeting. You are involved.

chair the regeneration company down there, it's trying to regenerate

the waterfront. In an election, a by-election the scenario, everybody

wants to come and be in at the places we are regenerating. So we,

as an organisation, we can't have any political bias, we had to stand

back. Being on holiday was quite useful. You have politicians

banging on your office door and trailing television crews around.

There are things happening. I'm glad that George has visited

Inverclyde during the campaign. But his description of it as a place

that has imploded and feels like the 1970s, that's not my impression

of the place now. There are things happening. But the politicians want

a bit of any starburst they can find. We had to stand back. I think

we should return later and talk a little bit because it's been a big

issue during the campaign. I can say actually that we now know there

has been a 45 % turnout. That's quite high, isn't it? Labour would

think that was their vote coming out for them. There's no one really

to kick because the Labour Party are down at the moment. People are

not in the mood to go and give them a kicking. There's not a sense of

anger in this by-election. I think Labour would be quite buoyed up by

having that. Raymond, why don't you get all of your people there to

tell us that 45 % turnout means they have actually won?

Let's begin with Douglas Alexander from the now favourites, installed

Labour Party. 45 % turnout - does that mean you're going to win?

hope so. It's broadly in line with our predictions of what we were

expecting in the course of the day. Let me just say that I thought

those comments were shameful, suggesting that people in

Inverclyde don't have aspirations. That's not the experience I've had

in recent weeks talking to people there, people who want the chance

not just for employment but want their kids to have a decent

education, move on and to better themselves. It's that kind of

complacency and disdain towards people in Inverclyde which I think

found expression in a determination to vote Labour this evening. The

votes are being counted, let's wait and see, but let's introduce some

realism. I was elected six months after the greatest Labour victory

in the 20th century, 1997. My majority was 2500 after my

predecessor got an 18,000 majority at the very height of Labour's

popularity. If Labour, coming off the back of what were dreadful

results for the Labour Party just four or five weeks ago, are able to

hold this seat healthily, then it will be a significant moment. It's

right that Alex Salmond came to Inverclyde seven times, but let's

see whether his bandwagon got driven into the ditch. Labour in

crisis a month ago, you seem to suggest that if you do hold this

If we are successful, and led Latency, it will be tribute to that

many members have been working hard. It will be a huge tribute to Ian

McKenzie. He is a local man like David Cairns and took great pride

in telling all of us he was the first person from Greenock to

actually represent the people of the up. He did his apprenticeship

there, he worked for IBM for 20 years. He is a local man who

understand local concerns. If we are successful this evening. I

think there will be important lessons we need to learn, because

it will represent but one step in what will need to be a longer

journey for the people of Scotland. 45% turnout. There has been a lot

of work from the Labour Party but also from the SNP. You had an awful

lot of people in that constituency working very hard. What does that

turnout suggests the you? It would tend to indicate that a vote share

has gone up. We may be heading to double the votes here we had in

2010. Remember, this is a Westminster contests. Although

Douglas Alexander was trying to say earlier this was an SNP seat

because of the parliamentary results. It isn't. There is more

than a 14,000 Labour majority. If Labour failed to learn the lesson

of the difference had been Holyrood in Westminster voting, I am

delighted. If we have close to a possibly double our share of the

vote, if we have taken the Labour majority down from perhaps 14,000

to 5000, that would represent a huge step forward in Westminster

voting terms. What does it tell us about Alex Salmond's personal

popularity, because he was given a large amount of the credit for what

was a historic election victory only a month ago. He has been in

the constituency six or seven times. He has even been at polling

stations this evening. With the kind of momentum he has is a leader,

he could win a seat like Inverclyde? Remember, in a Holyrood

victory you're talking about, this is one of the 15 seats in Scotland

Labour-held. This is a Westminster contests. There are different

boundaries but it is a Westminster seat with a 14,000 majority. If

that majority is down by perhaps two thirds, as per vote share has

doubled, if that momentum has continued it would be a fantastic

result. Bed and Alex Salmond send out an e-mail that was late, to

your own members, saying we will win this by-election? And his own

words, we will win this by-election. I will just say, doing X Y and Z,

you do everything you can to motivate your own members in the

run-up to polling day. I would imagine Labour had similar rebels.

Buzzing up students from all parts of England, of course you do

everything you can to maximise your report. That is what Labour did,

what we did, and we think a vote share will be almost doubled in the

seat. That would continue her momentum. Jo Swinson, the Liberal

Democrats do not take this context -- contests Edith et al. The other

main candidates had their candidates in place shortly after

that campaign began and you were struggling to find someone. He

eventually found a 20-year-old Glasgow University student. I think

you're suggesting that fielding a young candidate is not taking the

people of Inverclyde seriously. finding a candidate suggests a

problem with the party. We found an excellent candidate and she ran a

campaign that was enthusiastic and energetic, to be a voice of the

people of Inverclyde, I think that offer something that was fresh and

different. Where was Nick Clegg? For a significant jump up the

campaign he was in Brazil on a diplomatic trade mission. He is the

deputy Prime Minister and has a lot of things to do. Where is Vince

Cable? He also had a lot of business to do. Chris Huhne?

have cabinet ministers are busy doing their job. Ming Campbell?

Charles Kennedy? I was there, George Lyon was there, we have

plenty of support and plenty of parliamentarians. David Steel even?

We had plenty of parliamentarians who went to Inverclyde, we fought a

short campaign which was focused on messages about the regeneration and

jobs, which we have hardly touched on already. It was not a campaign

where we were expecting a massive swell of support. Are you proud of

the campaign? I am proud of it. We got it with an excellent campaign -

- candidate and they may not get the result we wanted, but they do

nothing that is any reflection on the candidates. It is a reflection

on a closer race that it was perceived to be between Labour and

the SNP. And let's be honest about it, we had a difficult result last

month and it is still very soon after it. To expect we could put

all of that into reverse in a few weeks is expecting too much. What

we are doing is listening, and that is what we were doing in Inverclyde.

The got on to doorsteps and listen to people's concerns. Your campaign

would be very lonely indeed without you and Annabel Goldie. What does

that say about the Conservative campaign? We took it very seriously.

A candidate was out and about, we knocked on thousands of doors

throughout the campaign, and Annabel Goldie played a vigorous

campaign as you would expect it to do. It was a good campaign, based

primarily on local issues. David is very heavily involved in the

regeneration of the net. couldn't find a cabinet minister?

What is clear to me and everyone in the Conservative Party is that

India up, there is a real mood at for regeneration in the area. We

participated in the debate for that, and played a full part in all of

the debate. Those people might have expected the Conservatives do not

be too keen on it, with unions, pensions and all that, we played a

full part. One thing that struck me in your campaign was he spent a lot

of time attacking the SNP has said that the Labour Party. David Wilson

warned about the potential problems with independence. Is that the

function of the fact that the Conservatives and Labour are

effectively in a coalition when it comes to local elections? Won the

area in which Labour and the Conservatives do work together is

with respect to the unions. We're both Unionist parties who want to

see Scotland remain in the United Kingdom, as do the Liberal

Democrats. You would prefer Labour to win us rather than the SNP?

were fighting for every vote for ourselves. Who did you want to win?

What we wanted to do was to fight the good Conservative campaign and

I think we did so. We wanted to get every vote that we possibly could.

I think David has performed strongly. One thing that became

clear to us during the election was that there are where Conservatives

to in the recent Scottish Parliament elections had voted SNP,

and they were extremely concerned that the outcome of that election.

The SNP obtained a majority when everyone said it was not possible

to obtain a majority in a Scottish Parliament. They then found a very

significant change in the First Minister, from the point before the

election, where he had to build a consensus on issues, to a point

after the election where there seemed to be no checks and balances.

Douglas Alexander, the people you had up, yourself and Gordon Brown

and the Miliband. What does that tell us about what the Labour Party

didn't 13 years of government, that the seat as safe as Inverclyde is

now in peril? It shows we do not take anyone for granted. When you

have elected MSPs for the Scottish National Party saying you have to

take jabs after campaigning Port Glasgow, that speaks to a distain

and contempt for people which I think is one of the reasons they

have still done has campaigned despite starting the campaign with

all the momentum and expectation. We had a choice, do we take

seriously the task we need to engage in, which is to work to win

every board not just in one part of Scotland but all across Scotland.

Do you therefore deploy people from Scotland who are known to work hard

to deliver that vote? People like John Prescott, who brought the tea

mobile to Greenock. Do we take people seriously and engage in that

discussion. That is exactly what we have done recently. Our initial

canvass returns indicated that that the SNP were leading in the seat by

2% just four or five weeks ago, they have a majority just recently.

We had our backs against the wall and his campaign. We were

determined to fight and to work hard for the people of Inverclyde

and to earn their support. If we're successful this evening, it is not

because we were entitled to that support. It is because we have

learned that with a local candidate is prepared to do a good job for

the people of Inverclyde. Where you essentially outmanoeuvred? Labour

is talking about the can as big as pretending this was an SNP seat.

Let's remember David Cairns added 14 1/2 1000 majority. A solid

majority, well over 50% of the vote. We polled 17 1/2 per cent of the

vote in 2010. We had to put a huge amount of effort into this. This

was just the carry-forward or momentum we had, and Douglas

Alexander is right, some of the men -- momentum is stuff we build up. I

think we will do that tonight with a huge rise in issue of the vote,

and I suspect we also see... There are no prizes for second place in

by-elections, you either win or you lose some. I would obviously prefer

we win, but this is a Labour seat, and if Labour continue to pretend

there is no difference what Jean Holyrood in Westminster elections,

Labour will continue to lose elections. We recognise the

difference which is why we recognise there is a 17.5 per cent

vote for us, and Labour have over 50%, and we have to work very hard

indeed here. It is clear what the mood of the panel is here. More

with the panel later on, back here for now.

Let's bring in a lot a beggar who is down in Greenock. Are you there?

Yes, I am. The Liberal Democrat candidate has just arrived to a

smattering of applause but it is not looking good for them tonight.

Labour, and with the is Gemma Doyle, the MP for West Dunbartonshire.

Then there seemed to have abated in the labour camp. Are you quietly

confident? We don't have the result yet, but certainly if, as some

people are predicting, it looks like it may well be a good night

for the Labour Party. You have had to work really hard for it despite

having this massive 14,500 majority. If you look at the results from May,

the SNP should have had a majority of about 1000 in this election. We

have worked very hard for every single vote. We have not taken any

voters from granted a tall, and we have been out knocking on every

single door. Speaking to his many voters as possible. That is

something you must have learned from the Scottish elections when it

seemed as if Labour thought they could just turn up. I am not sure

that is the case. There were many hard-fought campaigns and many

great Labour candidate to work very hard. Yes, there were lessons to be

learned from that campaign. It looks like tonight might be i is

all that we can really build on. is not exactly a result that you

can build on because it was years really anyway. This has been a

Labour seat for 80 years. Where does Labour go from here? Obviously,

you have had to fight for every vote and not be complacent. This

state, this result tonight was the SNP's Toulouse. It looked at the

start of the campaign... clarify this: it is your estate. It

is not the SNP's Toulouse. They certainly haven't smashed any

Labour majority. If you look at the most recent election that happened

here, you're only as good as your last election. If you look at the

results from May, the SNP should have had a notional majority of

1000. It was very much the us to win. We have had at Alex Salmond

here seven times now, and there are stories of him out at polling

stations begging voters the going in vote SNP is the big. It really

is an embarrassment for him, I think. Perhaps not an embarrassment

for the SNP in many respects because obviously they are here

just to try to win votes and hope that they do that. And people vote

one way and a Holyrood election and bought the other way at Westminster.

The Scottish election is testament to that, is that not your

experience? Yes, we're dealing with a sophisticated electorate who

think carefully about how their voting at each election. People do

raise various issues on the doorsteps. Alex Salmond thought he

was going to win a seat. He had written to local members of the SNP

saying we were going to win. In Inverclyde they were very confident,

and I think the voters will punish them for that arrogance this

evening. Just the final word about David Cairns. You worked alongside

him and had been on doorsteps. This is a night to remember him as well?

It is very sad that we're having this by-election. David Cairns was

a very well respected MP, and a very good man. Going round the

doors and hearing the stories of how he had helped people, and

really how sad people where to have We have exciting news from

Edinburgh. Councillors have been meeting to make a decision about

what they want to do about the trouble over the Edinburgh tram at

scheme. The council is short of ideas about where to find the money

needed to. Our correspondent was at the meeting. The meeting lasted

five hours. It was a marathon session. That is nothing compared

to what it could be here! Do not expect any sympathy. The decision

at the end of it all, as predicted, the council has officially adopted

St Andrews Square as the preferred option for the tram project. The

idea that they owe this to complete the line from Edinburgh airport

past he market, along Shandwick Place were a lot of work needs to

be done, driving up the tram tracks on Princes Street and heading to

said Andrew Square. But how are they going to pay it? As of now, we

do not know. What will happen next is that the new chief Executive of

Edinburgh City Council will be sent to the Scottish government to try

to raise the cash from them. As you have already said, the Scottish

government has already said, it has been absolutely clear all the way

along, that it is not prepared to find extra funding from taxpayers

across Scotland. So we expect there chief Executive of Edinburgh City

Council to are stored on to business rates money. If that does

not happen, the council will have to find some way of borrowing the

cash. The decision is made, how it will be paid for remains to be seen.

I understand that some of the trade unions representing bus drivers

were picketing the meeting today because they are worried that in

one way or another, the profits of Edinburgh's bus company could end

up being used it to subsidise this tramp project. Without trying to do

a PR job for Lothian bosses, unquestionably, the local bus

company is successful and popular. There is a great deal of concern

among supporters in Edinburgh that profits from the bus company could

be used to pay for a loss-making tram at service. Councillors were

told that claims that lobbying buses would be fleeced a to pay for

the trams have been overstated. Councillors were told that for

every �100 million of revenue wedge to the council would have to find

to pay for cancellation of the tram scheme, council tax bills would

have to rise by 45%. That puts things sharply into focus. The is

was coming from the officials? There have been suggestions that it

was rather obviously in the interests of the officials to say

that cancellation would be very expensive. That has been the

suspicion from the outset. I think, in fairness, even the Liberal

Democrat councillors will have suspected that council officials

were playing there handout rather more strongly than they ought to. -

- a play their hand. We are now being told that there is a drop-

dead date of the 1st September. This was agreed during the

mediation process which went on earlier in the year. I am sure the

citizens of Edinburgh will have views on who should be dropping

dead! The 1st September has been named as the contractors, of the

council is not in a position to save where they won the lines to go

to buy them, or they do not know how to fund it, we are told this

could all end up in the courts. Gordon McKenzie, the Liberal

Democrat transport convener says that is the date, but we have built

up some good will and they could go either side of that. But the phrase

drop-dead date will focus minds very firmly. Does this mean that

all the parties, or at least the party's law governing the council,

are signed up to this? Someone from the SNP was on the programme the

other night saying that it was nothing to do with them. The SNP

were arguing for a referendum to give the people of Edinburgh the

opportunity to have their say. an unofficial poll is anything to

go by, by a referendum would have resulted in an overwhelming

cancellation vote. The SNP are still semi-detached from the

mainstream the leadership of the council. They do not support

triumphs. -- the tram project. But Labour saying that the decision has

now been taken. Councillors today have been hugely embarrassed by

coverage of the story outside Scotland. The very fact that it is

being mentioned on BBC One on the one sure, in prime time, has

concentrated minds. People in Edinburgh do not like seeing their

city as a laughing stock. And Edinburgh is rapidly gaining the

reputation because of this fiasco. They are more determined than ever

to tried desperately to move us on once and for all. Thank you very

much for that. Back To Remember and his

politicians. -- back to Raymond.

We are now joined by the Labour MP Tom Harris who used to be the

former transport minister. Do you think it was a good idea for your

party to a supporter of the tram project? No, I do not. I took a

keen interest in the tram project when it was first mooted. After a

briefing from my officials, I made it the judgment that had that

particular scheme been put in front of me, I would not have approved it.

Why? I was not convinced by the business case. If you are going to

have a tram system, which cost a lot of money, you have to make sure

that the benefits are going to stack up. I was not convinced that

they did. I was not convinced about the model shift would happen in

Edinburgh. Partly because they have a very popular bus service. The

last of -- the last thing the rail industry needs is what is happening

here, politicians going ahead with a light railway system that is over

cost, over budget, over time, it scuppers the whole idea of a light

rail project for other cities. There are no plans for a tram as in

Inverclyde. You have set up a project which is all about

examining what has gone so badly wrong with your party. It is about

learning lessons and looking to the future. What we have done in

Inverclyde, and I think we have learned a lesson from the Scottish

Parliament elections, I admit that our campaign for the Scottish

Parliament elections was too negative. It was not a good enough

campaign. We have run a very positive campaign in Inverclyde. We

have run it on jobs, promoting Greenock and Inverclyde, in a very

positive way. And I think that has appealed to voters. I think the SNP

candidate, if not the wider campaign, has been disgraceful. You

cannot do during a dry election suddenly announce -- during by

election suddenly announce that one candidate or another has a plan to

make people redundant. You can did it is a local council leader. Anne

McLaughlin, the SNP candidate, suggested that the Labour candidate

is planning with other councillors are to make people compulsorily

redundant. They did not suggest it, it was Uplyme. So there would

definitely have been compulsory redundancies in Inverclyde? Lots of

authorities have lots of plants, some of them will come to fruition.

But you are saying it was a definite plan? Local authorities

are doing everything they can. This level is very clear that employees

are being specified for compulsory redundancy. That was not a negative.

In an enterprise zone, the message should be entirely positive. In by

election, something as explosive as a plan to sack workers, it would be

extraordinary if a candidate do not use that. She did get the council

leader to say that would not happen. I'd like an McLaughlan personally,

but I think the idea that she has had any influence whatsoever in

Inverclyde council is pushing it a little bit. What we have got here

is a new definition of positivity and negativity. We ran a positive

campaign. I think tonight, we will see the fruits of that campaign.

is not very positive when the your supporters are denying that am

McLaughlan even came from Inverclyde. -- Anne McLaughlin.

That personal attack was appalling. She was born here, she lived here.

She went to Glasgow for Education and to work. That personal attack

was appalling. What Anne McLaughlin did in terms of the sackings raised

in that memo was to raise a perfectly legitimate political

issue. The Labour Party never said at any point that an McLaughlan was

not from Port Glasgow because she is. -- Anne McLaughlin. We pointed

out that the only reason Anne McLaughlin was available was

because she had been rejected by her own party in Glasgow and then

the voters. That is why she was standing in Inverclyde. She was on

the list... She was pipped by your party at No. 8. Sue contested the

first-past-the-post seat. That is not rejection. George Swinton your

candidate was not from Inverclyde. What kind of campaign did you run?

-- Jo Swinson. It was setting out our candidate as being a fresh

voice for Inverclyde, highlighting the issue about jobs and

regeneration. I was in the constituency a lot during the

campaign, one thing was very clear, and the bigger issue was

unemployment, particularly youth Obviously, one MP on their own...

You are all promising jobs but you cannot deliver them. The coalition

government is introducing the work programme to help people get back

into work. That is happening through their Department of work

and pensions. There are some issues around work and enterprise, some of

those are more this Scotland's. Their enterprise zones down south,

which I think should be emulated within the Scottish context by the

Scottish government. These are things which can be done, having a

very strong voice standing up at Westminster, we have heard a little

bit on this programme from the commentators, like the areas like

Inverclyde can be talked down. There can be at him and gloom

picture that its painted by the media and it is important that

these places can have representatives that can stand up

for them and challenge that and make sure there is a clear voice

for areas within the Westminster Parliament and more widely. David

Mundell, you are in government, you might think this is talking it down,

but looking at statistics, if you look at Inverclyde council report,

it says the economic future of the area is in jeopardy because there

is high unemployment and it is leaking young and well educated

people. What will you do for people in Down who have received attention

over the last few weeks and now want action? We are very focused on

the use unemployment. There was an innovative events in the event at

which is not too different in net terms of issues it faces from

Inverclyde, trying to bring together everybody with interests

in youth unemployment. It is not something you, it is something that

has been getting progressively worse. It is something for which

there is not a silver bullet, but bringing all the governments

together, it is something that we can and must tackle. We are very

determined to do this. We hope to do this with the work programme

which will be about supporting key book -- people, particularly those

in difficult personal circumstances, into work. Explain that to me. If I

am an 18-year-old in Port Glasgow who left school at 16, has not

worked, is currently dependent on benefits and does not have much

hope of getting a job very soon, these are individuals I have spoken

to, how are you going to help me in the next few weeks or months, or

stop me spending bit rest of my life on the dole? We are going to

bring forward programmes which help work experience, programmes which

help people do voluntary work without the benefits being cut,

which is currently the case,... 43? No, it is an opportunity for

experience. Most people are going to work, they discover they have

not had any experience. We are looking at families who are maybe

in a third generation where nobody in the household has worked. The

need support and mentoring, the need help in terms of getting into

the labour market. That is what Our Work programme is about, it is the

most radical change in support for people into work for one generation.

Stewart Hosie, there has been talk about re industrialising this part

of Scotland, when are those jobs going to come to Inverclyde?

thing we need to do is build on what David said, which is the soft

skills. Through apprenticeships, which the Scottish government

provide, and then work incredibly hard, that his local authority,

enterprise bodies, to bring all the companies to make the green

technology of the future. Just like my constituency in Dundee,

Inverclyde has huge opportunity and capacity to do that. These are

private investment decisions, all I can tell you is a Scottish

government and many other bodies are working extraordinarily hard to

bring those companies to various parts of Scotland, to kick-start

that re industrialisation, to provide the job starts that the

young people we are speaking about need. Labour have had no answers

about many people in Inverclyde when it comes to get unemployment.

There are young people who are out of work and have been for some time,

psychologically they do not think they will enter the labour market

any time soon. I think people have had enough of politicians blaming

other people for this. I hope that after all the fuss of this by-

election and it is behind us, whoever wins, if the Scottish

government and the UK Government come forward with proposals that

will genuinely make a difference in Inverclyde, then I hope the Labour

Party would give full support to those initiatives. A lot of parts

of Inverclyde, I have spent a lot of time there in the last three

weeks, it is similar to part of my constituency, but they have very

specific problems. Even today, walking down what used to be the

high street, shocked at the level off... Every second shop is a

charity shop, until you get to the Mall. There are a lot of bargain

shops. There is clearly a structural problem in terms of

poverty in Inverclyde. The Labour Party, along with other parties,

have to take responsibility for that and work together and not make

it a political football. That's all for the panel for the moment.

Gordon, back to you. George Kerevan, we will let you sit

-- reply to some of the comments made about you earlier. Depending

on how this pans out, you may well be able to deliver a seminar paper

on it! I just wanted to stop for a moment and remember why this by-

election is taking place, it is because of the very sad and

untimely death of David Cairns. Lorraine Davidson, he was quite an

extraordinary MP, was he not? There are a few MPs who have to have an

act of parliament passed in order to be a Member of Parliament.

for David Cairns was elected, the law had to be changed because he

was a priest and priests at that point we are not allowed to stand

for the UK parliament, there had to be an act of parliament put through

to allow him to become the Labour candidate. I think he was a

politician who had great empathy for the people in his constituency,

he worked incredibly hard, he rose to ministerial office, we saw him

resign. Sometimes, with resignations, you get people having

his refits and storming out and charging to the nearest television

camera and it is all about them, with David Cairns there was a great

deal of sorrow behind his resignation. Very rarely, do you

see resignations like this. Whether they agreed with him on Gordon

Brown's record or not, people saw this as not one that was about him,

but was about... After he did that, an act that would normally be in

the Labour Party, he increased his majority? Its he did, yes. That

just shows the kind of MP that he was. The background of being a

priest and being able to understand and reach out to people, but also

been an extremely intelligent man and having a big vision and having

the kind of interest that he had in things like broadcasting, he really

was a huge asset to the Labour Party at national and local level.

Michael White, he did should to prominence when he resigned, he was

only minister to resign in protest at the problems with Gordon Brown's

leadership. You could argue if a few more of them had had the same

courage of their convictions, the political map of Britain might look

different. It might be, although personally I did not think there

was much chance of it. I decided that Gordon Brown was the settled

will of the British Labour Party in Parliament. They were not going to

change him and David Miliband was not going to challenge him. Of all,

as Lorraine has said, David Cairns was an interesting figure. I had

forgotten that he was a priest, people do not do that. Politicians

do not often resign, perhaps sometimes they should, but I do not

think it would make much difference. You do admire people who say that

they will do this because they feel it is right. That is always

admirable. Not always effective practical politics. I want to talk

about about the economy. I am curious, Michael, as to what

atmosphere is like Denford you are. There has been endless debate about

the policies that the coalition government are cutting in the

deficit, both down there and up here. One gets the sense that this

is an argument which has not been decided, the arguments are up in

the ear. People are, understandably, confused about whether to believe

it whether what this government is doing is right or whether to

believe Ed Balls. How do you make up your mind between the two?

watched Ed Balls debating in the Commons this week with George

Osborne, listening to them both I thought that Ed Balls was much more

aggressive. A pretty formidable politician. He always over does it.

He makes the case for saying we are taking too much money out of the

economy, too quickly, when the economy has not recovered. It is

like taking away the medicine before the temperature is down. He

is right about that, the risks are enormous. On the other hand,

Osborne says look at the Greeks, we have got to get the debt down. He

exaggerates the point, but it does not mean to say he grossly

exaggerated. It does not mean he has got a bit of a point. I went

down to Crawley in Sussex where several big department stores are

shutting down. Many chain stores are finally giving up after three

years of so recession. It is a mixed picture. You are talking

about shop closures and charity shops in Inverclyde, it is not as

bad as that but there were many closures and 50% off sales. People

are nervous. I went to the demo today, the teachers demonstration,

very well behaved, respectable. People wear a bit scared and

uncertain. They were saying, hands of my pension! It is this confusion.

The problems you have described in Crawley, I know it has been

particularly in the news this week, but you will find similar problems

in high-street up here, but then you see Mervyn King saying that I

appreciate this is bad news for some of the shops, but we always

said we wanted to rebalance the economy away from consumer debt

towards exports. Frankly, if you're going to do that, you have got to

cut retail spending. Actually, while this looks bad, it is all

part of the plan. You can imagine people saying that maybe he has got

a point. When you have a recession, the weaker brethren gets shaken out

just as people lose jobs. You can overdo it. In hindsight, people say

that what ever you thought of Margaret Thatcher, we lost a lot of

manufacturing firms which we did not need to lose. People exaggerate

the weakness of British Engineering, but what we have got is very good.

Some hi-tech stuff is a terrific. It does not create the jobs it used

to, it is much more capital intensive and robotic. Scotland has

got its share of that, but neither Scotland or England has got enough.

The coalition will find it much harder to rebalance that that will

to shut a few chain stores. This business about being confused,

maybe it is just me, the real sense you got looking at the coverage of

the Inverclyde by-election was that people were very concerned about

jobs and are worried and confused what to make of the arguments. I

came across a thing the other day, there was at his cystic put out by

the Scottish government, what they showed was that 18,000 fewer public

service jobs in this column now than a year ago. 15,000 more

private sector jobs. Actually, does that mean George Osborne has got

up.? 15 was always that you could cut the public sector quite heavily

because private sector would move in and make up the difference. The

Scottish government press release did not say that, which is not

surprising. It gets confusing. There is an issue about

unemployment figures. Lot of economists and forecasters are

struggling to reconcile the lack of growth in the economy with what is

happening in the labour market. The two things do not seem to be in

sync, they certainly do not seem to be following historic trends. There

is another factor which is very much their in -- Inverclyde factor.

We had population numbers today for Britain, Britain in the last five

years, the population has grown by more than 3.5 million. There is a

map you can look at one Michael White's website which shows... It

Shoji by AB upgrade the population is growing and where it is not.

There is a huge challenge for the SNP government in Edinburgh. The

only part of the United Kingdom where population is falling, in

that period, is Dumfries and Galloway, up through a Ayrshire, up

to Inverclyde and Argyll and up to Population is declining but up to

3%. Population increase is a factor in economic growth. Absolutely. And

these areas are showing population decline. In that strip through the

West of Scotland, the area at showing the fastest population

decline is Inverclyde. That is a huge challenge. It does not help

dealing with that challenge to have people like George going to

Greenock saying that he did not see any brown faces and they look like

the 1970s. I visit Adana a few weeks ago with a group of Indian

entrepreneurs who all live locally. It was a dynamic ever. There are

people in that area who are trying to bake things happen. Trying to

make things turn around. I am trying to regenerate physical

infrastructure. We were told to by the Scottish government that the

funding is to be cut by 60%. That does not help. George, it did

rather come over as if you were saying that the SNP attracts

aspirational of waters. As having been brought up in a working-class

scheme in Glasgow, I am not going to take any lectures on that.

Clearly in May, the dramatic shift away from their traditional parties

to the SNP was not necessarily a rush for independence, it was a

desire and an aspiration to make Scotland better. A desire forgotten

by Labour in office. In Inverclyde, there is a real structural problem.

People are leading. Something has to be done about that. I know that

people who are there are desperately trying to turn things

around. I have met some wonderful young people in Inverclyde who

would have wonderful careers anywhere else, but the jobs are not

there. We need to do something fundamental. That is why I think

the Scottish government's argument for shifting corporation tax to

Walid good at using low were corporation tax to attract capital

investment to places like Inverclyde could be the catalyst.

will bring you in. I am slightly worried about losing Michael white

again. Somebody in the Guardian brought an article the other day,

was it you? A book about Vikings. I'm afraid it was me. You can see

and er this Brown coming across my face. Whenever I write something

which praises Alex Salmond to the hilt, as the most successful

politician practising in the UK at the moment, my gut feelings remain

the Unionist. Sorry to cut you off. We have got a problem with the

sound. I was dying to hear the end of that story! They have got a

technical problem on that line. sounded like a great pace and

unfortunately high have a read it. -- a great piece. The gist of it

was, he had read a book about Vikings and it made him think that

you can see the world in lots of different ways and from loss of

geographical perspectives and Sutherland actually means that the

land of the South. From a perspective from someone -- of

someone in Norway, it is quite far south and that made him think, I

hope he cannot hear me, it made him think that if Scotland does go for

independence, the world will not come crashing down. Is that

correct? No, he still cannot hear me. Yes you can hear me! What I was

saying is that my instincts are remain in favour of the Union and

that is maybe what you would expect from an Englishman, except I am

from Cornwall. Be that as it may, I've read this extraordinary book

about the Vikings, not a provide book back -- not a profound book

but a good one, and it reminds us that life does go on, even if we

decide to separate. Sutherland is called Sutherland because it is

south of Orkney and Shetland. The Earl of Orkney would have named it

so. You live and learn, even at my age. If there is a deeper point

here, I think perhaps a lot of people in Scotland and Wales,

Northern Ireland, perhaps even the North of England, who are not based

in London, one of the criticisms of the political set-up is that London

does not have that ability to see things at the way that you have

started to see things after reading a book. One example is that we have

had this massive crisis to do with Greece over the past week, to do

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 255 seconds

Never break that barrier? That is an issue for us. We are quite open

about that. We get about 41% in the Scottish Parliament election, but

in this it is about 35%. If you think about the gap before, it was

about double that. We have narrowed that significantly. It is ourselves

or Labour in Scotland. The campaign has had mud-slinging beach to

Labour and SNP. I do not agree with that. I think the sling more money

than we do. They have a negative campaign at Holyrood. I think the

campaign was actually pretty mindlessly parochial. There issues

seem to be about the block that has lived here all his life. Even

though David Cairns was a councillor in Lambeth when he was

elected, the scene to discount that and attack the work candlelit

personally because she has lived in Glasgow, because she had to leave

for work. Things did not go your way when the Daily Record splashed

the story that a Paisley MP said he needed jabs to come to Inverclyde.

I am born in Paisley myself and some MPs have made comments about

it Paisley being strained. There is banter that has been blown out of

all proportion. I think it is the fact that Labour have a traditional

vote here, their SNP is a party that does not have the same

traditional base in Scotland. We have got to persuade people to vote

for us, we cannot rely on a tribal fault which Labour can in certain

parts of Scotland. We have eroded that. What will you learn from

this? We will take away seats that are difficult to win in Inverclyde.

This when he was only 1% less than in Glasgow East which their SNP

took. This was one of the few seats in Scotland we did not win. This is

fertile territory for their SNP and we can build on it. Thank you. As

you hear there, it looks like Labour has held the seat. We are

not sure about the majority just yet, but it does look like they

have had their majority pretty well slashed. 14th 1,500 might be down

to a few 1000. We will wait for the result in the next hour are so. --

14,500. We are now in an odd situation

where we do not officially know the result but their SNP have just said

they lost that election. The air has been intelligence out there for

some time, Stewart Hosie was talking about if they had slashed

labour's majority to 5,000 from what Kenny Gibson was saying, it

looks like Labour's majority is now in the 6,500 territory. I did not

think I would say that this will be a disappointing night for the SNP.

I did take the view it was a win, win situation for them. You will

have a solid Labour seat majority. There have been real wobbles in the

labour camp in the last day or two. They were saying that they would

have lost this because their SNP were pulling ahead of them. If they

have held this by 6,000, Labour will be breathing a huge sigh of

relief. Let us remind people, we can now get the result from the

2010 election. There it is. The picture that Kenny Gibson seems to

be painting was that they have eaten into that majority, but they

have not. But that is just what he is saying, it might be wrong. Not

nearly enough to overturn Labour. It does not look like their SNP

have taken this seat. It can go two ways in their analysis of this. You

can say that, prior to last month, it was I given in Scottish politics

that their SNP do much better in Scottish elections. They do not do

well in Westminster elections. I have spoken to senior people in the

party in London who were, worryingly, dismissive about the

Holyrood result. These were English people saying that it all comes

back to us for Westminster. That would be the wrong analysis for the

-- for them to take. If Ed Miliband wakes up and says it is all right

when it comes to us, it is those people in Scotland to cannot

Hackett. I I ask an obvious question, a lot of us do not spend

a lot of time at election counts and do not know what their

mechanics are and how it happens. How is it that Kenny Gibson can

know all of this? How does it work? Boxes come out of vans and you know

where that boxers come from and you see the people from parties are

allowed pretty close to the canteen tables and the can see the box from

that particular scheme. They can see how many votes, out of it. If

it is a Labour area, there are votes are stacking up, then you

know that you have fought has come out. Unless you are in a situation

like Glasgow -- Glasgow East. Here you would be looking for the

traditional Labour areas, the votes physically stack up, rather than

have the worry for Labour in this contest in that they do not have a

strong leadership figure in place. Why should you come out and vote

Labour? Fifield before them would have been that Labour voters would

wonder what the point was. They know from things like that what is

going on. George, you have got experience of this. Do you know by

this stage when you are involved in these elections, what is going on?

Yes, that is why it is always strange when you watch as if you're

having gone through that. The commentators will no. Kenny has

rather shocked me by giving it away. People who do not when usually do

not rush to the microphones to broadcast it! Normally you would

think of a statesmanlike response and prepare the ground. The parties

do quite sophisticated things. You are trained to watch the ballots

being counted. That goes into the laptop at the site and the

programme was is away. You can quite quickly have a prediction of

the result. I would take what Kenny has said as two. It has been wrong,

I remember SNP telling me that Glenrothes was OK and then 30

minutes later they ran out of the room. How long into the Kent was it

when the told you? It was early. Earlier than this? Yes. Plenty for

the politicians to mull over. We will not take up that theme of

her ballots are counted, I think most of the members of my panel are

too busy biting their nails at counts for that. I do want to pick

up on one the you were discussing, that is with our were new panel

member, and a kick in, what will this result means for Ed Miliband?

Would he be wiping his brow and thinking he is not as bad as some

of the press pick him to be? think we can look forward to a good

victory this evening, from early indications down at the count

tonight. I think people were talking down at the count about

people managing to get by with the majority of under 2000. If we have

a majority up of that, I think it shows we have turned a very

difficult corner in a very short period of time. If you look at

we're aware polling was, we were neck and neck at the start of this

campaign. I think we have come forward. What made the difference?

I think it was about Labour activists and hundreds of them,

most of them from Scotland, coming to speak to ordinary voters right

across the constituency and listen to them. Did people on the

doorsteps member -- mention Ed Miliband much? When he was on his

visit to Inverclyde, I saw him leaving with your candidate, a

couple were going up the steps into the local college, someone said,

look, there is Iain McKenzie. She recognised him but not Ed Miliband.

He is not in the newspapers every week as Ian might have been. He is

very well known and it came across strongly in the by-election. It is

showing that Labour was listening to the real issues affecting people

in Inverclyde. Their concerns about the lack of jobs and the fact that

college funds have been cut by �5 million. We have got hundreds of

students who would like to apply and going to courses there but are

not able to do so. It is talking about policies which make a real

difference to people's lives. is a review under way of the

disaster at your party hat on 5th May. You said this result should

you turned to a corner. There is no point. We have been very open about

that. We have to have a thorough investigation of all the factors

that influence that result and how we can learn from it. Importantly,

we have got council elections next year right across Scotland. We want

to make sure we were up are in the best possible position. By-

elections are rather special. The normal cycle we are in at the

moment is a very different nature. That is why the review is so

important for us, that we learn the lessons of what went wrong at the

elections, we learn what changes we need to make in terms of

organisation and structure, but also in terms of policy, but I

think this is quite a close review of our party, which is necessary to

make sure that we are in tune with people's needs and we have policies

which are attractive to them. Mundell, what seems to be

establishing itself pretty clearly in Scottish politics is that people

voting will vote one way for the Westminster elections, and then

another one for the Holyrood elections, for your party in

Scotland, that is disastrous. not, it demonstrates that people do

demonstrate the different elections differently. I do not think that is

unusual. You are going to be the only MP if this carries on. I do

not take anything for granted, in relation to my own position, what I

want to see his to be joined by more colleagues at Westminster. We

want to increase our number of councillors next year. We want to

be a strong force at Holyrood. That is why we have had our own review,

the commission headed by Lord Sanderson, and we are undertaking a

number of changes. When I the taking place? A new constitution

for the party will be adopted at their end of the summer. We will be

looking for a leader of the party in autumn. These are radical

changes in terms of how we organise our party, but it is also important

that we have a message which is relevant to people. We will

continue to work on that. We are proud of our record to date in the

Westminster government, we are proud of our government in the

Scottish elections in May. We need a positive contribution. We are

determined to be a force in Scottish politics, it is quite

clear from tonight's elections that we have established ourselves as

the third party in Scottish politics. Would David Cameron be

staying up tonight wondering what has happened to the boat in

Inverclyde? He is taking a keen interest in his election as he does

in all Westminster elections. He will be pleased at the campaign

that we have fault, David Wilson has fought a very strong campaign

based on his own local record. We have not seen our fault squeezed as

we might have expected in a boat like this, with their SNP and

Labour is the main protagonists. We have held our record and had a good

campaign. We have knocked on thousands of doors, David Cameron

will be pleased. Everybody around the panel seems fairly clear that

Labour have done this at have done well in comparison to some of the

predictions. At the Liberal Democrats managed to avoid it

embarrassment of coming 5th? have to wait for the full result so

we do not know the answer to that question. This is not a fabulous

result for the Liberal Democrats, we are still in their early

stages... How will you rebuild after a couple of months ago? You

are now a minority party at Holyrood. Heidi stop yourself not

becoming a minority party in Westminster? We have 11 MPs at

Westminster and we are playing a real role in government making lace

better for the people in Scotland. Increasing state pension which will

help or hundreds of thousands of pensioners across Scotland so that

their earnings link that was broken by the Conservatives that was not

reinstated by Labour has now been reinstated. All that has happened...

When people get the chance to vote, they do not vote for you. I take

the. There we need to communicate those messages better. Many of the

good things we have done in government have not yet sunk into

people or we have not necessarily got the credit for them. It is

within a context of what is undoubtedly a difficult time in

public finances. We are facing a massive budget deficit that has got

to be tackled. You have got to look at some of the other countries in

Europe to see what some of the consequences might have been if

they had not got to grips with the deficit. We are making sure that we

do what a Conservative government would have done on their own. We

are helping those polled -- pensioners by cutting taxes for

those on lower and middle incomes, instead of cutting inheritance tax

for millionaires. Lot of people do not seem to be lessening or are not

believing? We need to communicate letter -- better and listen more.

Stewart Hosie, this differential between people old Holyrood and

Westminster, that has got some significant dangers for your party

when it comes to the referendum campaign, does it not? If the

voters are becoming very sophisticated in the way that the

give their states that -- support and the Poles are accurate, then

they can quite happily support an SNP government, but not support

independence. Are you worried? at all. It gives me a lot of

comfort. The Scottish electorate do understand Holyrood, they can vote

one way, Westminster they can vote another. They have doubled their

share of the vote. It means they can take their own decision

standing alone in their independence referendum. They will

weigh that up on the basis of arguments for and against. I have

always said, if the referendum is held the case can be made and one.

If it is uncontaminated by the other issues that go along with the

general election, then so much the better. I am relaxed about that.

Just explain again with the SNP have taken this decision not to

have the referendum until the tail end. We said the second half of

this term. That was a promise we made. Why? We have got to run the

campaign. We have still got the Scotland Bill going through

Westminster which need to be improved. Your argument for

independence is that an independent Scotland would be much more

prosperous and a party for Scotland deserves to have all the economic

levers that many other nations have and that would make us better off.

If independence equals a more prosperous Scotland, then why

bother arguing with the Scotland Bill, why not they just have the

referendum, when that, be more Because the referendum was part of

a manifest yes package. If we won the election in May, we promised

that we would have the referendum in the second half of the

Parliament. I don't understand why? You were saying it was because of

the Scotland bill, but equally you say that independence would improve

the economics? So go straight to independence, why the wait? If we

have the independence wait there is a period before this independence

happens, even if we win. The Scotland bill is right now. Let's

get the conditions to improve the bill now and strengthen the

economic performance and stick to the referendum promise.

Labour's position on the Scottish Parliament does not make sense

anymore. You supported the Calman proposals, the Scottish people were

asked if they support them, they said "no", they support the SNP's

position, surely Labour would be better off getting ahead of the

curve rather than being behind? had a mandate of over 1 million

votes laster. Also our policy within our manifesto, as it was in

the manifesto for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative

Party, that represented the majority of the votes in last

year's Westminster election and the electorate a clear that Westminster

deals with this such as a Scotland bill. The Calman process -- process

was about improving defendant luegs, not about a route to separation.

The SNP would agree with that. They never took part in the Calman

Commission. This was about improving legitimacy and the

account jaiblt of Holyrood. It is not about the extra powers, but how

the Parliament relates to the electorate. That is one of the key

elements. So the argument this that the SNP in the last term at

Holyrood said that they would have a referendum, they had the national

conversation, they put out papers, no-one remembers what was on them,

then they went ahead with the bill at the end of the last year.

that is what the SNP have done, Labour are reviewing policies,

realising that they were beaten in the election a couple of months ago.

As part of the policy review, are you contemplating going beyond the

current proposals in the Scotland Bill? We have a firm commitment in

our manifesto last year to support the Scotland Bill on the basis of

the Calman Commission proposals. That is why we have supported the

kch bill as it is passed through -- supported the Bill as it is passed

through Westminster. We welcome the fact that the Committee at Holyrood

before the election asked for additional borrowing powers, we

endorsed that. We endorse sensible change where there is hard and

conclusive evidence that it is in the best interests of Scotland.

I think we are getting close to the result. David Mandell, you are a

Scotland officers minister, on the issues of powers for Holyrood,

Stuart has made the case that the Scottish people want additional

powers are you to give the six demands? I don't accept that the

Scottish election result was a mandate for changes to the Scotland

Bill it was a mandate for the independence referendum, the SNP

were clear about that. Alex Salmond did not mention the Scotland Bill

until the last weekend. However, he has come forward, to make six

suggestions for changes to the Bill. We have said we will listen to what

he has to say. We have asked him for the details of the issues. He

has come forward... There is no chance of the UK Government giving

power over exercise duty or Corporation Tax, seriously? I think

what is important is that Alex Salmond sets out why he wants the

powers, what benefit the powers will bring? It is clear for example,