27/03/2012 Newsnight Scotland

Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: As gas continues to leak from the

Elgin plant in the North Sea, it emerges that the platform's Blair

is still alight. Is there a serious danger of an explosion? -- flair.

Is renewable energy seriously the future for Scotland's future?

Staff have been evacuated but Gas continues to lead from the Elgin

platform 150 miles off the coast of Aberdeen. Tonight, the operator

Total has admitted a flair is still a light downwind of the thumb of

all gas. Coastguards have set up an exclusion zone. While there is a

possibility that the leak will die down of its own accord, if that is

not the case, Total have said that it could take six weeks.

Staff were evacuated safety. The danger is of pollution of the sea

and air and the potential of an explosion. The problem developed

under the Elgin platform. It involved a well which was put up

one year ago and workers were in the process of killing it off. The

fault occurred at the reservoir. Gas should travel to the surface

through this central pipe. But it leaked to the outer casings,

designed to carry other substances. It then leaked under the wellhead

platform, shrouding the area in gas. Coastguards have imposed an

inclusion zone -- exclusion zone of two miles for shipping and three

miles for aircraft. Shall have shut down operations in a nearby

platform because of the drifting gas. We could be looking at a Piper

Alpha scenario. On the positive side, everyone is home and save on

the platform is shut down. But if there is gas, we have got to find

the source. Total say they have yet to confirm the source of the leak,

but have activated their pollution emergency plan. Tonight, it emerges

that a flame at the platform is still burning, raising the

possibility that it could ignite the gas if the wind changes

direction. Gas is mainly methane. It is very flammable. The flair is

still alight on the main a production platform, but the wind

is blowing the gas plume in the opposite direction, away from the

flame. We know the weather forecasts are such that the wind

direction remains the same for the following five or six days, and we

are evaluating options to extinguish this plane. Last year,

Shell came in for criticism for failing to share information after

the oil spill from this platform. Total have been warned they should

not make the same mistake. Last week, BP got approval for well in

the deep waters west of Shetland. The difficulties in dealing with

this leak will raise further questions about the wisdom of

exploration in even deeper seas. Our correspondent is in Aberdeen.

What do we know about this plane? The first I knew was this evening.

I have interviewed David, who use or twice. I asked him at one.

Whether there was any risk of an explosion and he told me that all

the power was isolated, so there were no sources of isolation. He

went on to say he could not promise that it would not ignite but they

had done everything possible to minimise that risk. Maybe I should

have asked him if the fleck was still going. There was no mention

from Total of that until this evening. They have said that the

gas cloud is much lower than the flame and that the wind is blowing

the cloud away from the platform, and eventually, Total says, the

flame that will extinguish itself. Do we have any more clarity on what

Total might try to do to stop this leak? There seem to be three

options they are working on. They say they have experts from all over

the world, including their Paris headquarters, are working on it. It

is unprecedented in the North Sea. The first option, they hope, is

that the gas will stop digging itself. That seems to be a real

hope at the moment. -- stop leaking. They thought they had closed the

well by packing it down to stop the gas from producing. The third

option, which will take at least six months, is to drill a relief

well. That would be similar to the one that eventually stemmed the

flow of oil and gas from the grid in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

is not really safe to put anyone on this platform, is it? No. The gas

is a mixture of five hydrochloride so, Hydro sulphide, methane and

carbon dioxide. It is very flammable. The thing that surprises

me is why they have put an air exclusion zone to try to avoid the

risk of a commission from the air. There is also the see exclusion

zone. -- risk of ignition. There has been a lot of criticism of oil

companies in the past for not being open enough. You alluded to this

already. I think the unions are annoyed about this, as well. How

have you found dealing with Total on this? You asked the question so

I will answer it. We should never show the roads of our dealings

within -- with companies and ourselves. Companies like to

control information. You may remember last year when there was a

leak at a platform owned by Shell, Shell were eventually accused of

downplaying the incident. They had to say that they should perhaps

have been more transparent at the start. They do not like bad

publicity. They have tried to work it over the years but Total's way

of dealing with it in recent days would seem to be putting out a few

press your leases -- press releases, very repetitive, and we have had to

rely on information from other sources. The RMT say that they are

at a loss as to why it is still flaring. They hope the wind does

not change. Thanks very much. I am joined by Dr Simon Boxall from

the Department of Oceanography at Southampton University. Some pretty

obvious questions, if I could, about the conditions there. This

gas cloud that is supposedly surrounding this rig - we have been

told it is flammable. What happens if something ignites that? Does it

explode, go on fire or what? Both of the gases are infallible. They

are both very toxic, as well. -- inflammable. The first I heard that

Beith Laird was still going was an hour ago and it was news to me. --

the earth Laird was still going. Having shut down the electoral

systems, having this great flame going. -- electrical systems. It

means that the source is always there to ignite the gas, should the

wind change. Should it plain that connect with gas, what happens?

will explode. It doesn't just go on fire, it is an explosion? It is a

fairly volatile explosion. The damage that would cause to the oil

rig would mean that the whole issue of trying to cover of the other

banks coming out... Up there all kinds of big issues. It goes from

being a minor incident, relatively straightforward, to being a fairly

major incident if the reader does blow. What are the implications of

the fact that we are told we have this methane mix bubbling or

boiling through the water? I have heard suggestions that the EC could

set on fire if it was ignited, -- the ocean. And that this could

affect the buoyancy of boats. in the immediate vicinity of the

oil rig itself. What does that mean? If you have air bubbles

underneath the boat so, the boat relies on air bubbles holding the

water up. The boat would no longer be supported by the Dem -- dense

water. There are incidents of boats being hit by methane bubbles from

the sea bed, naturally occurring ones, which have caused boats to

sink. It is not unheard of but it is only an issue in the immediate

vicinity of the oil rig itself. It adds to the dangers they face when

they try to tackle this but the question is, is it bubbling through

the sea? One-storey we hear from Total is that the gas is being

released just below the week in air. -- the oil rig. But we hear reports

about the c Boiling, which implies that there is gas coming up through

the seat from the sea bed. The big issue then becomes the pollution

and if you have hydrogen sulphide coming into contact with water,

that is going to cause quite high toxic effects to marine life. The

methane itself will break down fairly quickly but the hydrogen

sulphide is the thing that could potentially cause an environmental

problem. I am curious as to whether you think there is a common theme

here. It is less than a week since BP was given permission to do deep-

water drilling to the west of Shetland. Although this was not in

deep water, this was a very high- tech field. It is the highest

pressure, highest temperature field in the North Sea. Are these things,

do you think, happening because we A we're pushing the boundaries of

what we can do. We're on the edge of technology in terms of dealing

with extreme environments. That is because we are running out of oil

from the normal environments, the standard sources of oil, Texas oil

fields, on land or in shallow water, are fast disappearing. An hour

hunger for fuel, we are being pushed to more extremes, D Lotter,

the Arctic, deep gas. -- deep water. Today, Scottish Renewables have

released a report saying that the renewable energy industry is going

to give another 1000 jobs. Is the picture all rose? Perhaps not. It

has been dubbed by its supporters the second industrial revolution,

but will Scotland pursued of green energy unleashed the green-eyed

monster again in years to come? Alex Salmond certainly hope so,

having nailed his colours to the renewable mast. The first minister

wants to generate the equivalent of 100% cut the country's electricity

by renewable means by 2020. Central to that are people like Richard,

who has spent the last 13 years developing and commercialising a

generator capable of harnessing wage power. We get a third of the

renewable -- of electricity from renewables anyway, and that speaks

for itself. The industry is delivering. His is exceeding

targets. That is a world-leading position. None of the measures by

which the renewable sector will be judged is its ability to create

employment. Today, Scottish Renewables released figures that,

at present, it supports more than 11,000 jobs. The majority are in

the supply chains linked to product design and development. It is a

significant number, and one which Scottish Renewables say could

increase quickly in the coming years. That is, if the sector

continues to receive support. A Spanish company last year announced

a multi-million pound investment in a wind turbine manufacturing plant

to be based in Leith in Edinburgh. It was trumpeted as a sign of

things to come. A we have set up a stable, growing industry, which is

the bedrock of creating and sustaining jobs. We have seen some

boom-bust industry in the US, which have not delivered at a sustainable

employment industry. -- and plundered in the industry. In

Scotland, you are saying the opposite. That is why be commenced

-- big companies are coming here. For many, renewable energy provoked

scepticism. Where wind farms are involved, even outright hostility.

There's a lot of nonsense about windmills, they are horrible

looking structures, they make noise, the kill birds by the thousands,

there really destructive... Donald Trump believes that a proposed

offshore wind farm would spoil the view from his north-east golf

development. Other proponents -- other opponents have arguments

which run deeper. The do not deliver, they're unreliable, they

are driving up household energy builds for everybody, they are

hugely subsidised. Britain has amongst the highest subsidies for

wind energy anywhere in the world, and this is not government subsidy,

this is not coming from the taxpayer, this is passed down the

line by the energy companies directly to the consumers. Will

Scotland energy future be the envy of the world? It is a debate that,

in itself, will generate plenty of heat. The Royal Academy of

Engineering have been debating the future of energy in Scotland. I

enjoyed by Dr Simon Harrison of Mott MacDonald and Dame Sue Ion,

the former director of technology at British Nuclear Fuels. Dame Sue

Ion, do think we're in danger of over hyping renewables? The debate

this evening has shown it is not as simple argument and that one of the

issues ahead is the Engineering challenge to deliver what is

required in the renewable sector, whether it be offshore wind

particularly, or the wave energy and its ability to be truly

commercialised and a truly commercial marine environment, that

has still to be proven. Dr Simon Harrison, there is an issue that,

with renewables, everyone talks about the technology and very few

talk about the cost? The yes, there are cost issues with renewable

energy. If we are to diversify, there are significant cost with the

competing options as well, so we would be talking about gas fired

power stations fitted with carbon capture storage, or nuclear plants

south of the border supplying power into Scotland. The accost problems

with all the options. -- there are cost problems. Do you agree with

that, Dame Sue Ion? I do, the cost of electricity is going to rise.

There is no simple answer. Some of the renewable technologies are

other more expensive end of the spectrum. But Simon Harrison's

point is that, if you're going to diversify energy, everything will

cost more. Is there any evidence that the renewable policy that the

Scottish government is pursuing and things like wave and tide and wind

is any more expensive than the next generation of nuclear power

stations? When you look at all the analysis, the nuclear option would

be the more cost-effective. Recent studies in the European Commission

have published that and demonstrated that clearly. Simon

Harrison, being parochial about this, of Scotland has a problem, it

is not just this idea about having lots of winter bites, the idea that

Scotland could re industrialise itself as an industry, they areas

where Scotland has a technical lead, things like wave and tide, not only

are they and their infancy, I wonder if they will ever be on the

scale that say, onshore and offshore wind is becoming?

issue will be about producing something cost-effective and seeing

it as part of a balanced portfolio, those technologies have different

generation characteristics, different predictability levels to

some of the other renewables. The future is likely to be about Amex.

Scotland is well-placed to take advantage of the intellectual

capital developed for those technologies, as well as some

others, such as carbon Capture and storage. Is there an elephant in

the room here? If we forget about nuclear and the cost compared to

renewables, could we be on the verge of a whole new world of

hydrocarbons? There have been huge new discoveries of oil in places

like Brazil and the attack -- and the Arctic, there is Canadian shiel

oil, there is an argument that the world's on the brink of seeing a

huge new supply of oil and will we really choose, when it comes down

to it, to pay extra for renewables rather than get more cheap oil?

There are a number of elements to the argument, some of which are

associated with climate change, and security of supply is, as well as

the cost element. Although gas may become more available due to shield

gas, we still have to look at the environmental implications of

pursuing that road and if we're going to do her job for the Earth,

and a climate change cents, we have to look at carbon sequestration,

which is not yet proven and industrialise, and all that will

have a cost element which will meet the fossil fuels not quite as

attractive as you otherwise would have thought. So badly, we will

have to leave it there. Thank you both very much indeed for joining

us. -- sadly. Tomorrow's front I am going to have to readers of

the screen. This is the thing that you saw on Newsnight, probably.

That is all we have time for More warm sunshine to come on

Wednesday. First thing, it will be chilly. Temperatures falling away

quite sharply. Across northern Scotland, there will be more cloud.

The sunshine will lift the temperatures in rural England. It

may start below freezing in rural areas, but by the middle of the

afternoon, we will be up at 20 degrees Celsius. A little bit

cooler on the coast. Essentially, a beautiful, spring day. A similar

picture in Northern Ireland. Parts of the South may exceed the March

record for Northern Ireland, which burn the stands at 21.7 degrees

Celsius. -- which currently stands there. An increasing amount of

cloud for the rest of the week. There will be plenty of sunshine in