27/06/2012 Newsnight Scotland


27/06/2012

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to be doing more, those voices are only likely to be getting louder.

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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland we have to referendum campaigns but

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will there be a referendum? There is still confusion about how it

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will be organised and whether there will be a question on D Lomax and

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whether the referendum will be legal. We tried to shed some light.

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Good evening and welcome to the increasingly surreal world of

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Scottish politics. If you believe some reports in the newspapers this

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week we're now in a situation where those who don't want independence

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for Scotland are determined to have a straightforward yes or no vote on

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the issue and those who fervently back independence are determined to

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have anything but a straightforward yes or no vote. But is that a fair

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picture of where we are now? How can the increasingly bitter

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wrangling over the issue be resolved? And do the public, who

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after all will have to put up with two years of this stuff, give a

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hoot? Here's David Allison. April 1992, this was the streets of

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Glasgow after Labour lost another election to the Conservatives,

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dashing hopes for a devolved Scottish Parliament. That was a

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real grassroots movement across Scottish society which symbolised

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events on George Square and was also symbolised by the diva camp on

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the hill. At the time the High School building had been earmarked

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for the location of a future Scottish Parliament. Fast forward

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to 2012 and Scotland's constitution remains centre stage. The pro-

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independence party -- campaign launched last month with the pro-

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union campaign getting together on Monday. They do not agree on

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anything apart from using The Country for their theme tunes.

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While the timetable is no longer an issue behind the scenes are heating

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-- things are heating up. Michael Moore met the First Minister in

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February as the UK Government threatened to legislate about the

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referendum. There are conditions attached. The SNP want its own

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question on independence with an option on a second question. The UK

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Government is insisting on a single question approved by the lack look

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-- electoral commission. Four months on there has been no follow-

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up meeting to resolve the issue. Alex Salmond is thinking of going

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it alone without legal approval. Is it provoking a legal challenge

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because he knows he cannot win on the independence question alone or

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his seat counting on public opinion shifting to help move the blockage?

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This TV licence ad shows a couple progressing their whole

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relationship in a few seconds. so glad we met. Me too. Actually...

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It's not you, it's me. I want a divorce. With two years to go until

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the referendum there are probably some people who do not even know

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each other yet who will have children and split up before we get

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to vote and they will be doing it in real time. What is the public

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meant to make of this kind nine? Polls suggest that four out of five

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of us will vote when the time comes. The Yes campaign and the Better

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Together campaign up and running but are they the talk of this

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place? Nobody has come in and mentioned it. No one has made a

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song and dance about it. Will it be talked about? Maybe eventually but

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not yet. Nearer the time when we go to vote then that is when people

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will start to talk about it. Even though we have been on the

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television. Nearer the time everybody will be talking about it.

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Maybe nearer the time... Two years on? Yes. Celebrations when the yes

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campaign won the 1997 referendum leading to the current Parliament

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which came after a long campaign which began five years earlier. You

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could argue that there is time yet for the public to get passionate

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and worked up this time around. Whatever question of questions they

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are eventually asked. Right, let's see if we can get any

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answers with this lot. In Edinburgh the blogger Kate Higgins and the

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Spectator's Alex Massie. And here Lorraine Davidson of the Times and

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Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

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John, take us through this. It is utter confusion. What is the

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timetable before we get any straight answers? Let us appreciate

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where we are. We have had the consultation from the UK Government

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and the UK Government concluded that people only wanted one

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question. The Scottish government held its consultation over a longer

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period and finished in May but we do not know the results of that

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consultation, it has gone out to external evaluation. To that extent,

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to some degree, what the Scottish government decides will not be

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within its control. Crucially I don't think anything will happen

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until we get the result of that consultation. From that we will

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then know whether or not the Scottish government thinks that

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there is it indeed a demand for a second question and then we will

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start to see negotiations between Michael Moore and Alex Salmond

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start to take place. Then the question is will they be able to do

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a deal on the transfer of power from Westminster to the Scottish

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Parliament? Or not? The Scottish Parliament has to agree. It has a

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veto on any such transfer of power was. The fascinating question is

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that of the Scottish government decides there is a demand for two

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questions and it decides to stick to that demand, is it willing to

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lose the opportunity of having an independence referendum which has

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been authorised by Westminster in favour of having a two-question

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referendum, the second question being about the SNP's second

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preference, choosing what the SNP think is still the legitimate

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authority of the Scottish Parliament to hold such a

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referendum. If it decides to go down that track, either way we will

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get the process of the Bill being passed through Holyrood during the

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course of next year and it is only when a bill has been passed in the

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autumn of next year that the question of whether or not it will

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be open to legal challenge. Does someone take it to the courts? If

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they take it to the court, will it be decided by UK Supreme Court?

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Them we wait to see whether their Lordships agree or disagree with

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the Scottish government in its interpretation of the Scotland Act

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or whether the UK Government is right and the Bill being passed by

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the Scottish Parliament is illegal and the referendum cannot take

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place. If they decide that them we may well say we will not halt the

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referendum and he will go back and say that he could not hold his

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referendum and he will need a another mandate. Right. That is

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clear then. All of that theory depends on Alex Salmond being able

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to say that his consultation has shown that there is a groundswell

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for the second question. It depends whether he has evidence that he can

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cite from his consultation that there is a groundswell for a second

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question in the referendum and secondly whether he decides that he

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needs that second question to avoid the question of being defeated in

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the first question and his party is willing to allow him to go down

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that path because, bear in mind, some people say, we are in politics

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in order to hold a referendum on independence and secure

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independence, what are we doing throwing away the one opportunity

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to do that? It is a question of whether his party will allow him

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and what judgment he makes on the risks of one question verses a two-

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question referendum. Right. Lorraine, if I your theory? Well,

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if you were Alex Salmond and you had taken your party to a historic

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landslide election in the Scottish Parliament to have a majority in

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government, you have got an opportunity to have a referendum

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but perhaps it may go down in history as the man who took his

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party to a humiliating defeat when they got a once-in-a-lifetime

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defeat, is that the part you want to go down? I don't think it is.

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Adding that is why we have had a lot of talking up around the second

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question from the end -- SNP, but trying to do it in the hands off

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kind of way. They want a civic Scotland a kind of way which would

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replicate the energy that we saw and I don't think it can happen.

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The fatal flaw in that is that the most of the mainstream parties in

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Scotland were leading it and gripping it and moving it forward

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and the public when with them. I don't think this will magically

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happen. If you are the Scottish government, what do you do?

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have to redefine that you are going on an independence journey and it

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is a two-stage journey and you want people to go the whole way with you

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and if they are not prepared to go the whole way, will they go

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halfway? Can you do it as a two- pronged strategy towards

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independence. What does that mean? A two-question referendum? In means

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embracing the second question which they are trying to pretend is not

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really theirs. It is not the Scottish public. But you will not

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happen... I am still not clear what you are saying. I used saying they

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should go for the two-question referendum? They should be honest

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about and say that they do actually believe in it. It is a Yes, Yes

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campaign. A Yes, Yes vote. If they can't get up, what should they do?

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It will be challenged in the court because there is no way David

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Cameron will agree to it. If Alex Salmond can walk out with his head

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held high and say it is a disgrace and it is all about London and he

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will come up with his integrity intact. All right, Kate Higgins, do

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you agree with that? I don't know if you're actually in the SNP but

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you are broadly sympathetic to the Yes campaign. You can see it is

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quite an agonising decision. The last thing you want to do is lose

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And I do not think there is any doubt that the SNP is confident it

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will win. The Poles are where they are. The most interesting finding

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this week is that 70% of the Scottish public do not trust

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Scotland's interests in the hands of Westminster, but over 70% do

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trust the Scottish Government to stand up on its interests, which is

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extremely hopeful. Isn't the logic what they are saying is to have a

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two question referendum? Devo max will be on the ballot paper, but

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there as the taste -- but they as the Status Quo. We will not go into

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the referendum with the parties offering what it currently is that

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in terms of political powers. In terms of that, people need to be

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careful about... This is not about Alex Salmond's decision, or the

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political parties, but the Scottish public have said consistently that

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they are wanting some poor -- some element of devo max. They should

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not deny the Scottish public what is wanted. The political parties

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should catch up with food Scottish people in terms of what is wanted

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in terms of constitutional aspirations. None of them will want

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to take the chance of being delivered a bloody nose by the

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electorate. Alex Massey, presumably you would snort at the idea of

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nationalists desperately wanting independence but not wanting to

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vote on it. What do you think will happen? Much of this is a problem

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of Alex Salmond's own making, winning two convincingly, and the

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scale has made his life more difficult. If he goes for a two

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question referendum, and this snarls up in the court, open to

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challenge and other things John Curtice was accurately laying out,

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and then he decides not to have a referendum, which is the suggestion

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being put out Mr Slade by some Labour types such as Brian Wilson,

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-- bridge out rather mischievously. He can run the risk of looking

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ridiculous. Most people outside the party political media world, most

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ordinary voters, would look at this and say he had an opportunity to

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have his referendum, and yes, Scotland should be or no you

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shouldn't be, that is a clear question for people to make their

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minds up about. To fail to have a referendum, I think that we do both

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his reputation and that of the SNP enormous damage. For that reason, I

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assume some sort of deal will be done between Westminster and

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Hollywood. And that there will be a referendum and that it will be a

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one question referendum. -- Holyrood. If you have a two

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question referendum, you make independence less likely. It is the

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way for nationalists to hedge their bets. Since everyone is agreed

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there will be more transfer of powers, or tax-raising and tax-

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cutting powers to the Scottish Parliament, to some extent, that

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question is moot, too. You do not actually need that second option.

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Kate Higgins, I am curious what your opinion is. If the British

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Government sticks its heels in and says, we are not going to transfer

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this section that the authority to the Scottish Parliament, that is

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that there are two questions, only if there is a yes or no to

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independence, do you think the Scottish Government should just

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have one question or stick their heels in and say, we will organise

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our own referendum and the devil take the consequences? I think it

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will depend other things. People have to remember, by the time we

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get a 2014, the UK Government's austerity programme will have

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kicked in, already having David Cameron on Monday that there are

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more welfare reforms coming. The reasons to stay together become

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fewer. In the light of that climate, I think, if the UK Government and

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the anti- independence parties decide that they are going to call

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the shots, they may be very surprised that the answer then

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returned from the Scottish people. It is a case of why meddle with me?

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I understand your political point. But do you think the Scottish

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Government should organise its own referendum or simply agree to have

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one question one? I think it depends on circumstances and we are

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the political vibes are falling at the time. At the moment, there is

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no indication -- there is no indication from yes campaign in

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front of us that they are wanting anything other than a one question

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referendum and may go for that. That is because there may be

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political vibes that suggest that the Scottish people are being

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absolutely prepared to fund the knows that the UK Government and

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take their chances. Briefly, Lorraine, do you think they would

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go with a one question referendum? No, if the polls and as they are

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the moment. Alex Salmond should have done it at the peak of his

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powers. He will be more unpopular and has no chance. Switching

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subjects, do you have any indications from all your polling

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evidence, we know who is in favour and against, a people interested?

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How is this rated compared to all sorts of other things? One of the

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things mentioned in that film, when people were asked a few weeks ago

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whether they would be likely to vote in the referendum, nearly 80%

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said they thought they were certain to vote. In contrast, British

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opinion polls asking the same question, those get just over 50%.

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There is no doubt, people may not be interested in the issue is a

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process, but at interested in the substance of independence itself. -

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- but a interested. So likely to vote? I think that is the one

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ballot you could organise at the moment where you would be certain

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of a high turnout. We shall leave it there. Thank you all very much.

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A look at the front pages. In the Scotsman, leading on a handshake

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between the Queen and Martin McGuinness. At the other papers

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lead on the banks, banks wrecked interest rates, saying the Scottish

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