Browse content similar to 27/06/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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to be doing more, those voices are only likely to be getting louder. | :00:16. | :00:20. | |
Tonight on Newsnight Scotland we have to referendum campaigns but | :00:20. | :00:25. | |
will there be a referendum? There is still confusion about how it | :00:25. | :00:30. | |
will be organised and whether there will be a question on D Lomax and | :00:30. | :00:34. | |
whether the referendum will be legal. We tried to shed some light. | :00:34. | :00:36. | |
Good evening and welcome to the increasingly surreal world of | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
Scottish politics. If you believe some reports in the newspapers this | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
week we're now in a situation where those who don't want independence | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
for Scotland are determined to have a straightforward yes or no vote on | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
the issue and those who fervently back independence are determined to | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
have anything but a straightforward yes or no vote. But is that a fair | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
picture of where we are now? How can the increasingly bitter | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
wrangling over the issue be resolved? And do the public, who | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
after all will have to put up with two years of this stuff, give a | :01:01. | :01:09. | |
hoot? Here's David Allison. April 1992, this was the streets of | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
Glasgow after Labour lost another election to the Conservatives, | :01:13. | :01:19. | |
dashing hopes for a devolved Scottish Parliament. That was a | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
real grassroots movement across Scottish society which symbolised | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
events on George Square and was also symbolised by the diva camp on | :01:28. | :01:34. | |
the hill. At the time the High School building had been earmarked | :01:34. | :01:40. | |
for the location of a future Scottish Parliament. Fast forward | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
to 2012 and Scotland's constitution remains centre stage. The pro- | :01:44. | :01:51. | |
independence party -- campaign launched last month with the pro- | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
union campaign getting together on Monday. They do not agree on | :01:56. | :02:03. | |
anything apart from using The Country for their theme tunes. | :02:03. | :02:13. | |
While the timetable is no longer an issue behind the scenes are heating | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
-- things are heating up. Michael Moore met the First Minister in | :02:18. | :02:25. | |
February as the UK Government threatened to legislate about the | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
referendum. There are conditions attached. The SNP want its own | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
question on independence with an option on a second question. The UK | :02:35. | :02:40. | |
Government is insisting on a single question approved by the lack look | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
-- electoral commission. Four months on there has been no follow- | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
up meeting to resolve the issue. Alex Salmond is thinking of going | :02:47. | :02:55. | |
it alone without legal approval. Is it provoking a legal challenge | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
because he knows he cannot win on the independence question alone or | :03:00. | :03:05. | |
his seat counting on public opinion shifting to help move the blockage? | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
This TV licence ad shows a couple progressing their whole | :03:09. | :03:16. | |
relationship in a few seconds. so glad we met. Me too. Actually... | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
It's not you, it's me. I want a divorce. With two years to go until | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
the referendum there are probably some people who do not even know | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
each other yet who will have children and split up before we get | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
to vote and they will be doing it in real time. What is the public | :03:32. | :03:37. | |
meant to make of this kind nine? Polls suggest that four out of five | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
of us will vote when the time comes. The Yes campaign and the Better | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
Together campaign up and running but are they the talk of this | :03:45. | :03:51. | |
place? Nobody has come in and mentioned it. No one has made a | :03:51. | :03:56. | |
song and dance about it. Will it be talked about? Maybe eventually but | :03:57. | :04:04. | |
not yet. Nearer the time when we go to vote then that is when people | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
will start to talk about it. Even though we have been on the | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
television. Nearer the time everybody will be talking about it. | :04:12. | :04:22. | |
:04:22. | :04:24. | ||
Maybe nearer the time... Two years on? Yes. Celebrations when the yes | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
campaign won the 1997 referendum leading to the current Parliament | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
which came after a long campaign which began five years earlier. You | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
could argue that there is time yet for the public to get passionate | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
and worked up this time around. Whatever question of questions they | :04:39. | :04:46. | |
are eventually asked. Right, let's see if we can get any | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
answers with this lot. In Edinburgh the blogger Kate Higgins and the | :04:49. | :04:51. | |
Spectator's Alex Massie. And here Lorraine Davidson of the Times and | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
John, take us through this. It is utter confusion. What is the | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
timetable before we get any straight answers? Let us appreciate | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
where we are. We have had the consultation from the UK Government | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
and the UK Government concluded that people only wanted one | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
question. The Scottish government held its consultation over a longer | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
period and finished in May but we do not know the results of that | :05:20. | :05:26. | |
consultation, it has gone out to external evaluation. To that extent, | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
to some degree, what the Scottish government decides will not be | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
within its control. Crucially I don't think anything will happen | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
until we get the result of that consultation. From that we will | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
then know whether or not the Scottish government thinks that | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
there is it indeed a demand for a second question and then we will | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
start to see negotiations between Michael Moore and Alex Salmond | :05:51. | :05:54. | |
start to take place. Then the question is will they be able to do | :05:55. | :05:58. | |
a deal on the transfer of power from Westminster to the Scottish | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
Parliament? Or not? The Scottish Parliament has to agree. It has a | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
veto on any such transfer of power was. The fascinating question is | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
that of the Scottish government decides there is a demand for two | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
questions and it decides to stick to that demand, is it willing to | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
lose the opportunity of having an independence referendum which has | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
been authorised by Westminster in favour of having a two-question | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
referendum, the second question being about the SNP's second | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
preference, choosing what the SNP think is still the legitimate | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
authority of the Scottish Parliament to hold such a | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
referendum. If it decides to go down that track, either way we will | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
get the process of the Bill being passed through Holyrood during the | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
course of next year and it is only when a bill has been passed in the | :06:47. | :06:52. | |
autumn of next year that the question of whether or not it will | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
be open to legal challenge. Does someone take it to the courts? If | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
they take it to the court, will it be decided by UK Supreme Court? | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
Them we wait to see whether their Lordships agree or disagree with | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
the Scottish government in its interpretation of the Scotland Act | :07:09. | :07:15. | |
or whether the UK Government is right and the Bill being passed by | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
the Scottish Parliament is illegal and the referendum cannot take | :07:18. | :07:24. | |
place. If they decide that them we may well say we will not halt the | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
referendum and he will go back and say that he could not hold his | :07:29. | :07:35. | |
referendum and he will need a another mandate. Right. That is | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
clear then. All of that theory depends on Alex Salmond being able | :07:39. | :07:45. | |
to say that his consultation has shown that there is a groundswell | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
for the second question. It depends whether he has evidence that he can | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
cite from his consultation that there is a groundswell for a second | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
question in the referendum and secondly whether he decides that he | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
needs that second question to avoid the question of being defeated in | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
the first question and his party is willing to allow him to go down | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
that path because, bear in mind, some people say, we are in politics | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
in order to hold a referendum on independence and secure | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
independence, what are we doing throwing away the one opportunity | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
to do that? It is a question of whether his party will allow him | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
and what judgment he makes on the risks of one question verses a two- | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
question referendum. Right. Lorraine, if I your theory? Well, | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
if you were Alex Salmond and you had taken your party to a historic | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
landslide election in the Scottish Parliament to have a majority in | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
government, you have got an opportunity to have a referendum | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
but perhaps it may go down in history as the man who took his | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
party to a humiliating defeat when they got a once-in-a-lifetime | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
defeat, is that the part you want to go down? I don't think it is. | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
Adding that is why we have had a lot of talking up around the second | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
question from the end -- SNP, but trying to do it in the hands off | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
kind of way. They want a civic Scotland a kind of way which would | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
replicate the energy that we saw and I don't think it can happen. | :09:10. | :09:18. | |
The fatal flaw in that is that the most of the mainstream parties in | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
Scotland were leading it and gripping it and moving it forward | :09:20. | :09:25. | |
and the public when with them. I don't think this will magically | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
happen. If you are the Scottish government, what do you do? | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
have to redefine that you are going on an independence journey and it | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
is a two-stage journey and you want people to go the whole way with you | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
and if they are not prepared to go the whole way, will they go | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
halfway? Can you do it as a two- pronged strategy towards | :09:44. | :09:50. | |
independence. What does that mean? A two-question referendum? In means | :09:50. | :09:53. | |
embracing the second question which they are trying to pretend is not | :09:53. | :10:00. | |
really theirs. It is not the Scottish public. But you will not | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
happen... I am still not clear what you are saying. I used saying they | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
should go for the two-question referendum? They should be honest | :10:10. | :10:20. | |
:10:20. | :10:20. | ||
about and say that they do actually believe in it. It is a Yes, Yes | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
campaign. A Yes, Yes vote. If they can't get up, what should they do? | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
It will be challenged in the court because there is no way David | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
Cameron will agree to it. If Alex Salmond can walk out with his head | :10:31. | :10:37. | |
held high and say it is a disgrace and it is all about London and he | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
will come up with his integrity intact. All right, Kate Higgins, do | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
you agree with that? I don't know if you're actually in the SNP but | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
you are broadly sympathetic to the Yes campaign. You can see it is | :10:51. | :10:57. | |
quite an agonising decision. The last thing you want to do is lose | :10:57. | :11:06. | |
And I do not think there is any doubt that the SNP is confident it | :11:06. | :11:11. | |
will win. The Poles are where they are. The most interesting finding | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
this week is that 70% of the Scottish public do not trust | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
Scotland's interests in the hands of Westminster, but over 70% do | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
trust the Scottish Government to stand up on its interests, which is | :11:26. | :11:33. | |
extremely hopeful. Isn't the logic what they are saying is to have a | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
two question referendum? Devo max will be on the ballot paper, but | :11:38. | :11:43. | |
there as the taste -- but they as the Status Quo. We will not go into | :11:43. | :11:49. | |
the referendum with the parties offering what it currently is that | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
in terms of political powers. In terms of that, people need to be | :11:53. | :12:00. | |
careful about... This is not about Alex Salmond's decision, or the | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
political parties, but the Scottish public have said consistently that | :12:05. | :12:12. | |
they are wanting some poor -- some element of devo max. They should | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
not deny the Scottish public what is wanted. The political parties | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
should catch up with food Scottish people in terms of what is wanted | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
in terms of constitutional aspirations. None of them will want | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
to take the chance of being delivered a bloody nose by the | :12:28. | :12:35. | |
electorate. Alex Massey, presumably you would snort at the idea of | :12:35. | :12:38. | |
nationalists desperately wanting independence but not wanting to | :12:38. | :12:44. | |
vote on it. What do you think will happen? Much of this is a problem | :12:44. | :12:50. | |
of Alex Salmond's own making, winning two convincingly, and the | :12:50. | :12:57. | |
scale has made his life more difficult. If he goes for a two | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
question referendum, and this snarls up in the court, open to | :13:01. | :13:07. | |
challenge and other things John Curtice was accurately laying out, | :13:07. | :13:13. | |
and then he decides not to have a referendum, which is the suggestion | :13:13. | :13:20. | |
being put out Mr Slade by some Labour types such as Brian Wilson, | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
-- bridge out rather mischievously. He can run the risk of looking | :13:23. | :13:29. | |
ridiculous. Most people outside the party political media world, most | :13:29. | :13:34. | |
ordinary voters, would look at this and say he had an opportunity to | :13:34. | :13:39. | |
have his referendum, and yes, Scotland should be or no you | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
shouldn't be, that is a clear question for people to make their | :13:42. | :13:49. | |
minds up about. To fail to have a referendum, I think that we do both | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
his reputation and that of the SNP enormous damage. For that reason, I | :13:54. | :13:58. | |
assume some sort of deal will be done between Westminster and | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
Hollywood. And that there will be a referendum and that it will be a | :14:03. | :14:12. | |
one question referendum. -- Holyrood. If you have a two | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
question referendum, you make independence less likely. It is the | :14:17. | :14:22. | |
way for nationalists to hedge their bets. Since everyone is agreed | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
there will be more transfer of powers, or tax-raising and tax- | :14:25. | :14:29. | |
cutting powers to the Scottish Parliament, to some extent, that | :14:29. | :14:35. | |
question is moot, too. You do not actually need that second option. | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
Kate Higgins, I am curious what your opinion is. If the British | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
Government sticks its heels in and says, we are not going to transfer | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
this section that the authority to the Scottish Parliament, that is | :14:48. | :14:52. | |
that there are two questions, only if there is a yes or no to | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
independence, do you think the Scottish Government should just | :14:55. | :15:01. | |
have one question or stick their heels in and say, we will organise | :15:01. | :15:07. | |
our own referendum and the devil take the consequences? I think it | :15:07. | :15:15. | |
will depend other things. People have to remember, by the time we | :15:15. | :15:20. | |
get a 2014, the UK Government's austerity programme will have | :15:20. | :15:26. | |
kicked in, already having David Cameron on Monday that there are | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
more welfare reforms coming. The reasons to stay together become | :15:29. | :15:37. | |
fewer. In the light of that climate, I think, if the UK Government and | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
the anti- independence parties decide that they are going to call | :15:41. | :15:45. | |
the shots, they may be very surprised that the answer then | :15:45. | :15:51. | |
returned from the Scottish people. It is a case of why meddle with me? | :15:51. | :15:56. | |
I understand your political point. But do you think the Scottish | :15:56. | :16:01. | |
Government should organise its own referendum or simply agree to have | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
one question one? I think it depends on circumstances and we are | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
the political vibes are falling at the time. At the moment, there is | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
no indication -- there is no indication from yes campaign in | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
front of us that they are wanting anything other than a one question | :16:19. | :16:23. | |
referendum and may go for that. That is because there may be | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
political vibes that suggest that the Scottish people are being | :16:26. | :16:30. | |
absolutely prepared to fund the knows that the UK Government and | :16:30. | :16:35. | |
take their chances. Briefly, Lorraine, do you think they would | :16:35. | :16:41. | |
go with a one question referendum? No, if the polls and as they are | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
the moment. Alex Salmond should have done it at the peak of his | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
powers. He will be more unpopular and has no chance. Switching | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
subjects, do you have any indications from all your polling | :16:53. | :16:58. | |
evidence, we know who is in favour and against, a people interested? | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
How is this rated compared to all sorts of other things? One of the | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
things mentioned in that film, when people were asked a few weeks ago | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
whether they would be likely to vote in the referendum, nearly 80% | :17:12. | :17:16. | |
said they thought they were certain to vote. In contrast, British | :17:16. | :17:21. | |
opinion polls asking the same question, those get just over 50%. | :17:21. | :17:27. | |
There is no doubt, people may not be interested in the issue is a | :17:27. | :17:32. | |
process, but at interested in the substance of independence itself. - | :17:32. | :17:38. | |
- but a interested. So likely to vote? I think that is the one | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
ballot you could organise at the moment where you would be certain | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
of a high turnout. We shall leave it there. Thank you all very much. | :17:45. | :17:50. | |
A look at the front pages. In the Scotsman, leading on a handshake | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
between the Queen and Martin McGuinness. At the other papers | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
lead on the banks, banks wrecked interest rates, saying the Scottish | :17:58. | :18:06. |