31/07/2012 Newsnight Scotland

scientist, I do not want to be rich, Tonight on Newsnight Scotland,

politics as usual has been suspended for the Olympics, but

David Cameron has been a Scotland limbering up for a post Games

relaunch. What were the coalition any to do to recover from their

fall? Visiting a factory creating more

jobs must have been more fun for the Prime Minister than presiding

over an economy mired in recession. His David Cameron now facing a

series of decisions that could have profound effects on his Government,

his chances of winning an election, and even the independence campaign

in Scotland, is it conceivable he could begin by axing some of his

best friends? The successful candidate is Ruth

Davidson. A fresh start for the Tories. And new leader, who almost

scenes designed by central casting to challenge the stereotype of but

Scottish Tory lady. I am not a Messiah! But our hopes of a Tory

revival made harder when the party does not have its problems to seat

at Westminster? He launched a growth strategy a year ago, and now

there is no growth. The economy has gone backwards. I have never

disguised the fact that Britain faces a very difficult economic

situation. We have this debt crisis... The Government has

announced a U-turn is on two of the most controversial measures in the

Budget. But it is not just opponents who were taking shots at

the Conservatives. Some of their own supporters think they are not

quite good enough. And while opinion polls may bounce, Labour's

currently in the lead across the UK as a whole. While in Scotland, the

continuing challenge for the Tories is to widen their appeal be on

their core supporters, to reach out to more people who might share

certain Tory values but no longer seem to vote for them. The first

battle is the battle of the referendum. David Cameron's

supporters believe he bounced Alex Salmond into announcing his plans.

But while the better together campaign includes people from all

the main Unionist parties, it is Labour's Alistair Darling who has

sat the biggest role so far. And are the Scottish Tories really able

to come up with distinctive policies for Scotland? They drop

their opposition to the Scottish Government's plans for minimum

pricing for alcohol. Was this new thinking by a new leader or did it

just happened because the UK Government was planning a similar

move? The biggest test for the Tories in Scotland came in may's

council elections. The good news for them was that they became the

third party of local Government. The bad news, that they actually

lost councillors. They simply avoided the complete humiliation

endured by the Lib Dems. But sometimes, at the way politicians

are seen by the public is about more than politics alone. Will the

feel-good factor of the Olympics and Jubilee help the UK

Government's popularity? If that happens, might the Scottish

Conservatives start to share in the love?

I am joined in London at by the junkies that of the Independent,

and he in the studio by Professor John Curtis of Strathclyde

University. Bring us up if you will on the polls. UK general election

voting intentions, we are the? the first time, the Conservatives

seem to be hitting a degree of mid- term trouble. From March, from

around the time of the Budget, support for the Conservatives

slipped below 35 % for the first time. It has been winning

consistently for three months or so. Not disastrously low, but if you

look at some of the other ratings, satisfaction with the Government,

with David Cameron, whether or not people feel that the Government is

handling the economy, all of these numbers have dropped and are now

lower than they have been at any time. For we are Labour? They are

running at around 41 %. They are about eight points ahead. They're

doing as well as they have done at any stage in this Parliament. So

far, it seems to be a concern about the short-term competence of the

Government. It is Ed Miliband's criticism. She did David Cameron

think mid-term blues? Yes. This condition with the Liberal

Democrats is that they are in serious difficulty. They have a

long-term problems. At the moment, the Conservatives can say that they

could recover from this position. They have to worry about a

perception that there are not running things terribly well and

that becomes apparent deception, and secondly that the economy is

not returning to growth. This means that there will be a concern that

eventually the public will lose faith. If those impressions are

confirmed, the stop and support The SNP are doing rather remarkably

well in the polls, are say? It depends. Some polls suggest as

many people would vote for them now it as late last year. For

Westminster, but the Poles have the support for the SNP down by six

points. It looks as though it is unsure. All the polls and the last

few months at the same questions. All four showed to varying degrees

about a drop in support for independence. The first round of

for the independence debate seems to have gone to the other side.

They are clearly in the lead in the vast majority of opinion polls,

though. What is the feeling in amongst

ordinary Tory activists. Do you feel that the Government needs to

shake itself up? A month's ordinary Tory activists,

we would be keen to see more conservative policies put through.

If it is very understandable why George Osborne's ratings have not

been great as the moment. He has been hamstrung with Vince Cable. He

does not inspire great confidence and the business world.

Were the same more conservative policies, what you mean?

We want to see lower taxes. Less regulation.

Much more taxes? A much more tax cuts. We want to

see lower taxes. Less regulation. So you don't believe in George

Osborne's austerity agenda? I think we're hamstrings.

How are you going to have low taxes and key to his Budget targets?

Activists think that if we can there were taxes, we can stimulate

growth and encourage people to be creative.

If so you think what Vince Cable thinks?

Vince Cable thinks different things on different days depending than he

is talking to! Lords reforms, which are a priority for the Liberal

Democrats and not for anyone else in the country, are taking up too

much time and politics. We want to fix the economy. Me what to see

more conservative policies. We need to put the Liberal Democrats back

in their box. What is the atmosphere at

Westminster? Is there a feeling something dramatic needs to happen?

You have just heard there than the answers are muddled. How you get

out of this is difficult. What happens to rebranding in the mid-

term blues? There really is nothing coming that is concrete. For the

coalition is in a fairly difficult position. Not particularly

unpredictable, though. This was coming. A double-dip recession was

on the cards. We are looking at potential autumn recovery. Another

triple dip recession Mehdi at the beginning of the next year. I think

that jobs will spawn is a problem for David Cameron. Whether he

decides to keep him or not it will be interesting. Britain losing its

triple-A credit rating was also significant.

Defined it credible that David Cameron could actually consider

getting rid of George Osborne? George Osborne is not just his

Chancellor and the man who came up with the economic strategy which is

the badge of identification of this Government, he is also the main

party strategist. Look what it's like Tony Blair and

Gordon Brown. Tony Blair never moved Gorton for fear of what would

happen on the back benches. I don't think that constituency in the

party is supportive but George Osborne. I do not think it will be

Vince Cable. If he moves William Hague from a Foreign Office, would

that split the party down the middle? That I do not think it

would be. The problem is, I think that what you were hinting at the

beginning was, the project. The Conservatives project. It is almost

at David Cameron and George Osborne thing. To a certain extent, it is.

But what happens if the credibility of that is at risk? David Cameron

may axe George Osborne. Can you see that happening? Given

the problems amongst Conservative backbenchers and their unhappiness

about the Budget and George Osborne's performance for... Could

you imagine David Cameron getting rid of them?

I was saying it is very understandable when you have people

like Vince Cable in your department why you struggle. There have been

some good achievements. When David Cameron came into power, where

interest rate was the same as Spain's. The rating agencies are

still showing that we are doing OK. They have cut the top rate of

income tax and corporation tax. What about the question I ask you?

Your answer, I take it, is that you cannot conceive of him getting rid

of George Osborne? There will be a reshuffle, but I

think George Osborne will be safe. He is doing a good job under the

circumstances. The circumstances are strained and they have not got

a full Conservative team there to be putting in full Conservative

policies. One theory is that the best thing

that has happened to George Osborne is Lord upshot making to Robert

remarks about him and everyone knowing that he is one of the best

pals of Vince Cable. The one thing that is guaranteed to make Tory

backbenchers rallied behind George Osborne is being criticised by the

Liberal Democrats. She sure. Tensions between

Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are much greater. Ian's comments

are reflecting that. Conservatives are now saying the reason we're not

doing better is because we're being held back. I think that is nonsense

as far as the public is concerned. The problem that the public have is

that they're beginning to doubt the ability of the Conservative

ministers in Government to perform effectively in office. The public

had long ago lost confidence in that Liberal Democrats. They got

that message long before Conservative MPs. The public are

now asking questions about the competence of the Conservatives, if

not about the strategic directions. Her you indicated that she thought

it was at least conceivable that George Osborne would have to go.

But realistically, is that is what would happen in this upcoming

reshuffle, what is going to happen that the public will pay any

attention to? It is not so much we shuffle

changing the direction of the Government or changing key policies.

The reshuffle is always attempts at re-energised is an by the

Government, if such a word exists. Just a bit of energy and a bit of

change of faces. New faces on the television. The messages. That is

what it is all about. The David that David Cameron has is that he

keeps it Chancellor in place who, if you like, has been hammered

elsewhere by the papers and the media. We saw a bit of that in the

Observer this weekend. That may happen anyway, but I think if the

criticism gets too much, it is not a matter of David Cameron saying I

have to keep him regardless, he may have no choice. By the other issue

that is very much at the forefront of people's attention at the moment

comes in the form of Boris Johnson. Can you see them ever being a

leader of your party? Boris's... Massive talent. Massive

talent. People react well to him. David Cameron will not be leader

for ever and ever and ever. If he few sub-par as trying to get a seat

so that he could try and challenge David Cameron as the leadership of

the party, which that could people in the Conservative Party off?

Do Conservative Party is a very strong party. There is it some of

talent in our Westminster parties. Boris Johnson would after that

talent. There are lots of ambitious people there who have the talent to

lead the country. We're having this incredibly long

campaign about the referendum on independence. What happens at

Westminster presumably feeds into that? It could you explain it? We

did make a difference whether people... Not so much which way

they're going to vote, but whether they believe the Conservatives will

form the next Government in Britain for that there will be a coalition

or that Ed Miliband will be the next 10 Minister?

In trees, there is a tendency to exaggerate the degree to which

people attitudes towards independence for Scotland depend on

who they think is going to be running the next administration.

The truth is that his people in Scotland were so afraid and

disliked the idea of any Conservative administration budding

their country, even on the back of English votes, we would have seen

support for independence increase quite significantly following the

2010 general elections. That did not happen and the polls show that

David Cameron's intervention in January of this year, which Alex

Salmond confidently predicted Woods result in an increase in support

for independence, has had no such result at all. Both coalition

parties are now relatively weak and both are certainly weaken Scotland.

The success of the no campaign and the leadership of the no campaign

will be invested inside the Labour Party. And the tactics of the no

campaign up primarily not going to be run by the coalition Government,

but by the Labour Party. Now a quick look at tomorrow's

That's all from me. If you want to see the programme again, it's on