17/09/2012 Newsnight Scotland

On Newsnight Scotland tonight, we bring together both sides of the

referendum campaign. Yes Scotland meets Better Together as the

British Social Attitudes Survey provides the latest snapshot on

what we are thinking about Scotland's future. Yes, it is a

snapshot, but does it confirm a trend? Hello, good evening. How

strong his support for independence? You would think a

reputable academic survey would be able to answer the question

definitively, but the findings of the 2012 British Social Attitudes

Survey have been used by supporters and opponents as an indication that

they are winning the argument. Only 32% said they favoured independence,

but then again 43% said they wanted Holyrood to make all decisions.

Jamie McIvor has been taking a # I have travelled a very long

way... It takes all kinds of folk to rally to LACORS. This mural has

just been unveiled in Glasgow's West End. All local life is

represented, apparently content and United. How much what the

campaigners for and against independence like to build a

movement like that? This year's British Social Attitudes Survey

suggests that Scots are not content with the economy, and there is no

unity over the question dominating Scottish politics, independence.

The survey suggests that while support for independence may rise

and fall, it is remarkably stable over the longer term. Last year, it

stood at 32%, well up on 2010, but lower than five years earlier.

truth is that this survey is the only survey that has asked the same

question about constitutional preferences for the way back since

the foundation of the parliament in 1999. Basically, it suggests that

over the long run there is no trend in one direction or the other so

far as support for independence is concerned. In other words,

supporters tend to oscillate between a quarter and a third in

the survey, and the most recent reading is taught the higher end of

that range, but in truth there is no clear evidence that one side or

the other over the long run, over the whole period of devolution has

made significant progress in reducing support for independence

for in increasing it. And what sort of folk back independence or the

Union? It seems women are still decidedly more sceptical about

independence than men. What seems to be true is that women are less

confident than men about the prospect of independence, and that

goes back to the fact that women are somewhat doubtful about the

economic consequences of independence. Maybe it is gender

stereotyping, but maybe men are more likely to take a risk. They

are more willing to express confidence about the idea of

independence. In contrast, women are more likely to say they are

worried. That is one of the issues on which yes campaign are going to

have to work. So what about more powers for Holyrood short of actual

independence? In other words, devo max, still a possible second option

in two years' time. Well, a majority backed Holyrood being able

to decide on taxes and welfare, but not defence and foreign affairs.

The cutting point where we move from a minority of people in

Scotland being in favour of change to a majority clearly in favour of

change is the point where we moved to devo max. That is something that

can get majority support. It is not the case that devolution Max is the

most preferred option of most people in Scotland, but what is

truth is that virtually everybody who is in favour of independence

thinks that devo max is also a good idea, and around a half of those

who want to stay in the United Kingdom also think that it is a

good idea. Therefore, we get this potential coalition and consensus

built around an idea that is not necessary anybody's first choice

but seems to be something you can get majority backing for. And what

about the opinions south of the border? People there will not have

a vote on independence, of course, but their views might form part of

the debate and the mood music. There is certainly evidence of

increasing unhappiness about the perceived anomalies of devolution.

26% of people in England now believes Scotland should leave the

UK, compared with just 14% in 1997. The number of people there want a

devolved Scotland within the UK has dropped. So what can the pro and

anti-independence campaigns learn from this study of Scottish life?

It can help give them an idea of what would and would not persuade

some folk. The people currently undecided who could decide our

nation's future. Jamie McIvor reporting. Well,

Professor John Curtice is with me live now. Give 43% want Holyrood to

make all the decisions, why do only 32% favour independence? I was

rather surprised that he started his programme thinking that

academics would give you a clear answer to a question! The truth is

that we know from a survey research how you pose a question often makes

a difference to the answer. It is a big difference. And it is a bigger

difference than when we did the same exercise one year earlier.

Undoubtedly, what it gives you an indication of is that the idea of

independence itself, and the word is not necessarily particularly

popular, but the idea that here Scotland has been putting forward

that people in Scotland should be able to make decisions for itself

and people should make decisions for Scotland, that is a popular

idea and more popular. That said, yes, there is a difference between

the proportion of people who support independence expressed one

way rather than the other, but when you look under the bonnet and ask

yourself, who are the people are in favour of independence? You

discover it looks rather similar, you have to feel pretty strongly

Scottish, you have to feel that Scottish -- up and can be better

off economically, however the question is asked. Well, the extent

to which this is a decision based around national identity, how

potent a brand will the campaign for keeping Scotland in the UK find

Britain and Britishness? Well, I think there is no doubt that if the

Better Together campaign are going to fight an effective campaign,

they have to recognise that while it is true that around two-thirds

of people in Scotland are still willing to acknowledge at least

some sense of British identity, for most of those it is their second

identity, not their first. An effective campaign for the union

cannot be fought on the basis of saying to people, let's keeps

Britain great. The basis of their campaign has essentially to be, it

is fine to be Scottish, and indeed you can be proud to be Scottish,

and Scotland can be a proud country and remain within the Union. At the

moment, one of the things about independence about which a lot of

people agree is that if Scotland were to be independent, more people

would have pride in their country. That is an argument the Better

Together campaign have to deal with. On the other side of the argument,

will the SNP and others in the nationalist camp, will they find it

easier to sell independence if it comes with the Queen, the pound,

membership of the EU, possibly NATO and goodness knows what else?

Certainly, there is no doubt that the SNP strategy has been very much

based on the idea that, look, Scotland can the Independent but

those things of everyday life that you might value, EastEnders to the

Royal Family, would still be with us. Of course, that strategy has

hit difficulties, because there is a whole economic argument about

whether or not Scotland, in keeping the pound and being part of the

monetary union with the UK, whether such a stance is possible, given

the lessons of the eurozone crisis. I think that therefore brings us to

what is the most crucial lesson of the survey, which is at the end of

the day, so far as the "yes" campaign is concerned, if they are

going to win the referendum, they are going to have to win the

economic argument. Most people in Scotland feel primarily Scottish,

they are proud to be Scottish, that is already a fair wind for the

"yes" campaign. What is much less of a fair wind is the economic

argument. It is only a third of people in Scotland who think that

Scotland would be worse off economically, but only a third are

in favour, and unless you are clearly thinking that Scotland

would be better off economically, you're not likely to feel confident

about the prospect of independence, and so you're not likely to support

it. Unless they can put those three things together, the "yes" campaign

are not likely to win. Also in the studio, from yet Scotland, the

chief executive, Blair Jenkins, and in Edinburgh, from Better Together,

Willie Rennie, who is also leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Blair Jenkins, John mentioned the power of the economic argument, how

are you going to make the economic case for people to vote yes to

More people in the survey think that Scotland will be better off

under independence than worse off, which is a good place to start.

Economics will be the essence of the debate. Even under current

arrangements, Scotland pays more into the UK Treasury, 9.6 % of tax

revenues in the UK, and takes out only 9.3 % of public spending, says

Scotland is already the main contributor. And do you accept that

the basic argument there, Willie Rennie, that there is more money

going in than coming out? There is quite a lot of dispute about those

figures but the reason why even if you accept Blair's figures, the

reason why Scotland is successful is because it is part of the United

Kingdom. How do you know that it would not thrice more as an

independent country? It is the SNP's proposition and it is not

something I would support. They have to prove that we would be

better off. I note that through the single market and as part of the

United Kingdom, Scotland is in a better place. I guess it is not the

kind of thing you can no without trying it and it is not the kind of

thing you can try before you buy. So how do you turn around the

figures in the survey, turn around a third support for independence in

to a majority? There are cases where figures shift dramatically.

In 1996, in the summer, the vote for independence was only 26 %. Two

years later that had gone up to 60%. In 2009, independence support was

33 %... Is... As John Curtice has pointed out, the trend is that

between a quarter and a third of people tend to said they are in

favour of independence. How do you get the numbers are up to a winning

position? There has never been a poll showing majority support in

Scotland for independence, it has been said. But that is not true.

What about your strategy? How will you persuade more people to vote

for independence? The reason why we are finding today so positive is we

now have two years to give people the information. There will be

intense focus on the arguments and the issues around Scotland's

constitutional future. That will really build the case to get people

to a majority position in favour of independence. Willie Rennie, if

people feel more Scottish than British and it Scottish was to

become an independent country, and national pride would be greater,

aren't there are signs that Blair Jenkins might be on to something

here? I think he's making a brave attempt at this but the figures

today are terrible for the Yes Scotland campaign. None of those

figures show a majority support. Even if you distorted to the 43 %

figure with all the powers in Scotland, there is not one single

figure that shows there is majority support for any definition of

independence. In fact, it is the opposite. If you look at foreign

affairs and defence, most people want that to remain at a UK level

by quite a whopping margin. So this is a brave attempt by Blair to

redefine what independence means and support for independence but

most people are pretty firm that they do not support independence.

What do you mean by independence? You are still waiting, I suppose,

for the SNP and is that the Government to define what they mean.

How do you know you will be in favour of the formula they come up

with? Yes, the Scottish Government are going through the process of

defining what exactly they mean by independence. What is not happening

is on the other side of the equation, the Unionist parties are

not deciding what they mean by devolution. But this is about more

powers for Scotland and as John Curtice says, that is what people

really get behind. In this latest finding, this survey, at 72 % want

substantially more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Biking when

the people of Scotland are presented with the option of an

independent Scotland, with the arguments we making the next two

years, or essentially a very negative campaign, but no and he

will get nothing, they will travel in our direction. -- vote "no".

needs to check his facts. All the parties are looking at more powers.

We have a commission which reports next month. That is where we agree

most. We are actually defining what all that means. Now we are getting

Blair arguing the case for a policy that he is not actually there to

defend, which is more powers. Perhaps you should spend a bit more

time actually arguing for independence. But given that that

is what you are in favour of, something approaching Devolution

Max, Holyrood controlling almost everything except defence and

foreign affairs, why don't you seize the moment and get that on

the ballot paper? Because you know that it does not work. You cannot

deal with two different concepts in one referendum. But John Curtice

does it in these surveys year in, year out. People seem to understand.

By a referendum is not an opinion poll. Well, it is an independence

poll with consequences. We need to decide if we are part of the United

Kingdom or not in a clear referendum with a decisive outcome

so we can move on to decide what kind of devolution be one for the

future. The whole 99-51 conundrum where the majority of people vote

devo max but only 51 % vote independence, we are still be

independent, that he's a kind of democracy that I do not understand

or support. He is so important because people are now saying to us

that what they really want this information. They are beginning to

engage with the discussion and it Siddick -- issues but they wanted

more information. I thought you were for independence? Completely

and utterly. The more information we give about the advantages of

independence, then it is a natural and logical extension of devolution.

People like very much what has happened with devolution. It lacks

the decisions Scotland has been able to take. It is then a natural

progression. -- it likes the decisions. How important do you

think the English actor is, with rising concern, perhaps, in England,

and the current devolution settlement? -- the English back to

earth. It is more prominent now than it ever has been so there will

be greater awareness now it sounds of the border. People want to be

part of a United Kingdom. It is something they have actually

cherished over many years. They have the NHS, the BBC, many great

institutions. The pension. All these things are British and that

is why people want to remain part of the United Kingdom, because it

has been good of us -- for us. Women, it seems, are less persuaded

of your case than men. How will you address that? Again, I think there

is a demand for more information and that is something we need to do

over the next couple of years. There is a compelling argument in

terms of more prosperity, and at the moment people feel that there

is a disparity in wealth. We continue to yet governments we did

not vote for and policies we do not want. That is something prevalent

now and with a strong feeling, wide public support in Scotland.

Particularly to women? Both men and women. Blair goes on about wanting

more information. We do need a lot more information because so far we

have had silence from the SNP and from your Scotland. He has tried to

say as little as possible. -- from yes Scotland. We have to leave it

there. Thank you very much. Do a quick look at tomorrow's front

pages. The Scotsman goes on the referendum. There is a picture of

Andy Murray, too. That is just about all from

Newsnight Scotland for tonight but we will leave you with a closer

look at Alasdair Gray's annual unveiled a needle bit earlier today

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 59 seconds

in hell had in Glasgow. -- in Good evening. Tuesday will be a day

of sunny spells and scattered showers. Most of the showers will

be from North Wales up northwards into northern England, Scotland and

the Northern Isles. So the further south you are, it should be a

decent day. A keen and north- westerly breeze. 16 in London but

it should be dry and bright foremost on the day. Broken cloud

and some sunshine and that is what you will find across most of the

southern counties of England. A chance of light showers in the

southern half of Wales but I suspect a bright and dry afternoon

in Cardiff. Sunny spells and a scattering of showers, too, in

Northern Ireland. Breezy in Belfast. Wind even stronger across the West

of Scotland. I suspect there will be a slightly better day with sunny

spells and showers. Many places on Wednesday it will enjoy a decent

day. Clear spells of sunshine. That is after quite a cold start. But

temperatures rising in the afternoon with good spells of