18/10/2012 Newsnight Scotland

towards breast-feeding, very much. Tonight and Newsnight Scotland:

Alex Salmond claims this week has been historic because of his deal

with David Cameron but he has a row over NATO and opinion polls to deal

with at the SNP conference. I will be asking the Cabinet Secretary

Alex Neil when he expects the people of Scotland to respond to

the nationalist arguments for independence.

The serried ranks of the SNP are being Perth. Some delegates may be

wondering if it is all age dream. Their party has a majority

Government and there is an independence referendum. Their

leader tells them the nonsense will come to an end in 2014. So they are

having an -- a divisive debate on defence policy.

Tonight delegates were debating the issue of NATO on the fringe.

Tomorrow they will decide their party's policy on the conference

floor, aware of the historical resonance.

The foreign ministers of 12 Western nations entered the departmental

auditoria in Washington to sign the Atlantic Pact... 1949, the

foundation of NATO. Then and now the basis is mutual defence, and

armed attack on one member is to an attack on all. Then and now, NATO

is a nuclear alliance and most of his 28 members have no nuclear arms

capacity of their own. Britain is one of the exceptions. The Trident

Vanguard submarines based at Faslane Inverclyde.

Within the SNP, support of NATO say it would offer reassurance but they

are adamant that an independent Scotland would only join NATO if

Trident goes. If Scotland is free from atomic weapons. But critics

say that is hypocrisy. Banishing Trident and yet continuing to

shelter under NATO's nuclear umbrella. And they condemn NATO as

a relic. The Cold War is over. The Soviet threat no longer exists.

What is no joke for, is a fair question. The bank -- what is NATO

for? It does not have a call by this. Faslane was chosen for the

nuclear deterrent because it is secluded with deep water and facts

of access to the North Atlantic. Critics say NATO would seek to stop

the removal of Trident from Scotland. But SNP leaders insist

they are anti-nuclear and say a new Scottish constitution would ban

Trident. They say NATO has contemporary relevance. We know

that the majority does not want Trident. This way we can get the

best of both worlds, and be a good neighbour and arrive. Outside the

conference anti-nuclear campaigners urged the SNP to reject NATO

membership. It is like saying you will not carry a knife but you will

be in a gang of people carrying knives. I do not believe we will be

able to get rid of Trident without a fight, and we will be fighting it

on that issue. The SNP leadership believe they can marry defence

pragmatism with anti-nuclear principles. I think Scotland's's

Jia strategic interests are shared by our North Sea partners. That is

the right thing to do that on the absolute condition that we do not

host nuclear weapons, because the SNP has always been an anti-nuclear

party. This week's deal on a referendum will be influential,

focusing the SNP's eyes. We are now closer to our goal of Scottish

independence, not just in the 80 years of SNP history but over the

last 300 years. That is what awaits the people of Scotland in two

years' time. APPLAUSE. SNP leaders say Scotland

can board -- build upon devolution to secured further powers through

independence, including defence. I am joined now by the Health

Secretary, Alex Neil, live from the conference. Alex Neil, there is a

proposal to put off the vote on NATO at this conference and have a

referendum amongst the party members. Is that something you

would support? No, the Party's constitution is clear and that is

that policy decisions made at the annual conference and in between

the annual conference at the quarterly national council. There

is a provision to have a referendum on a policy issue and in any case,

this decision will be taken tomorrow so quite frankly, the idea

of a referendum is a non-starter. Do you expect to win the Green?

think we'd win -- will you win the vote? I think we will. We have a

democratic and transparent process and I think the debate itself

demonstrates how mature, open and democratic the SNP is compared to

opposition parties. And do you expect, whatever the outcome of the

vote, everyone else to rally round? After all, the very suggestion that

there should be a referendum does not indicate that the people

proposing these have much confidence in the party conference.

At the end of the day, everybody signs up as a member of the party

to the party constitution and the democratic procedures. I think

irrespective of the outturn tomorrow, the party will come

together and unite. It is not the liking of the SNP membership,

particularly when there is such a big prize at stake in 2014 for us

after tomorrow, after the decision, to still continue to argue about it.

We will except, everybody will accept the resolve and move on.

Another contentious issue at your conference is same-sex marriage. I

think Gordon Wilson your former leader will be speaking on that.

There was a fringe meeting on it earlier this evening. Do you think

the promise of a free vote in Parliament on the legislation you

bring forward will be enough to keep the parties together on this?

Absolutely. This is an issue of conscience. We are not running this

down people's throats. We are saying to everybody in Parliament

this is a matter of conscience and every member of the Scottish

Parliament will have their own decision to make, or whether --

when the legislation comes before them. A will you be voting for it?

I will be voting for the principle. I am the minister in charge of the

bill. I took over that responsibility from Nicola Sturgeon

when we swapped jobs a month ago. I think the entire Cabinet will vote

for it. So you are in favour of same-sex marriage? Yes, I think the

principle of this is absolutely right. What we are trying to do is

make sure there is a proper balance between the rights of those people

who are the same sex and in love and want to get married and have

that marriage recognised by the state, recognising their right to

have that and balance that against the rights of the clergy and the

churches do not to participate in same-sex marriage if that is

against their principles and their religion. We have given an absolute

guarantee and we have a commitment in principle from the UK Government

to change the Quantas legislation so that there will be a guarantee

to the clergy and church is that they will not be compelled to

participate in same-sex marriage. We are getting the best of both

worlds, securing the rights of people who want a same-sex marriage

and securing the rights of the clergy who do not want to

We have had two opinion polls, showing that support for

independence has fallen. opinion polls have balloon debate

all over the place. There was an opinion poll last week which said

that when you're asked people a specific question, would they be

better off and an independent Scotland? You get a different

result when you ask the question that wave. Last year, 65% people

who thought they would be �500 a year better off, 65% would vote for

it. The core of our campaign has to be to persuade people, both as

individuals and families, that both individuals and the nation would be

better off both economically and socially as a result of

independence. Just to be clear, what you are saying is that when

pollsters ask questions like the questions you are proposing to ask,

and find that support is falling, that means nothing, but when you

ask them loaded questions, and they say yes, that somehow was full of

meaning and significance? Are no, if we get across the message, which

I believe we will, but a Yes vote means we will be better off, I

think we would get the majority for independence. If we don't persuade

them, but we were not get a majority. We have got to... Opinion

polls can change. If you average out support a independence has been

running at the same level for 20 years. You have been in government

since... For five years now. You have made no impact whatsoever for

support for the ideology of your party. Surely, you must have

expected better than that. We both know that a penny impulse, as you

move towards decision day, you tend to see a change. -- we both know

that as you move towards decision day. We actually won an overall

majority against all the odds. Therefore, the opinion polls much

closer to the actual decision day, by which time the detailed

arguments will have been Ed much more. For example, we are

publishing detail over the coming months. -- which will have been

aired. I used seriously telling me you are not disappointed in any way

that after five years, there is no sign of any rise in support for

independence? What I am saying is I am too long in the tooth, I have

been round the block too often to know and think we would get

brilliant opinion polls. The campaign has barely started. Once

the campaign gets underway, and once you and I are having this

conversation a month before polling day, he was the opinion polls been

very different. -- you will see the opinion polls.

Now, the start of this week saw the so-called Edinburgh Agreement,

which attracted a fair bit of international media attention. The

Scottish independence debate is being reported in a number of other

countries, as it chimes in a variety of ways with their own

domestic political issues. I'm joined now from Perth by the London

editor of the Irish Times, Mark Hennessy. What do you make of the

NATO debate? Is at there a parallel in Ireland? There is, in the sense

that if you hear people talking about a nuclear free Scotland, if

you were to look back at the experience in Ireland, that one not

happen. After Irish independence, you had the treaty ports, which the

British kept until 1938 and regretted it. If you look at... If

everybody concentrates on that place, it can be done a elsewhere.

The nuclear weapons storage facility is different. He would

almost certainly end up in a situation where you would have a

nuclear plat -- presence in an independent Scotland. The opponents

of independence would say that the UK is a big and important power in

the world. You might not like what happened in the Iraq war, but

Britain's voice was very important. With no disrespect to Ireland, it

isn't. It is a fairly small country, no one would not take part in the

Libyan action last year if the Irish had said no. Our people end

Ireland happy with that? -- are people in Ireland. Yes, we are.

There is no point trying to pretend you are Premier League NUR Crewe

Alexandra. We have always seen our projection of power. All people are

greatly appreciated and admired by the majority of people in Ireland.

But we do not feel a need to project military power. An

independent Scotland... A would people in Ireland would make,

looking here? Are they thinking, this is fantastic. All are they

thinking, if they are under Premier League, why do they want to become

Crewe Alexandra? They are not thinking very much about Scotland

at this very moment in time. We have got far bigger and closer

problems at home. That would change over the next couple of years. Him

that the debate will have an instability factor. -- the debate

will have earned in stability factor. Nobody will be confident on

the Unionist side. That will make people nervous. It will make people

even more difficult to deal with than they normally would be. That

is not in the interest of the Republic at the moment.

Now a quick look at tomorrow's Now a quick look at tomorrow's

front pages. Leeds on and RBS story. Scottish Daily Mail. This is the