07/01/2013 Newsnight Scotland

On Newsnight Scotland tonight. Welcome to 2013, the year in which

nothing much specific is expected to happen in Scottish politics.

More damp squib than firework extravanganza. Or is that simply

tempting fate, as both sides in the independence debate gather their

forces and plan their strategies Good evening and Happy New Year

from all at Newsnight Scotland. So 2013 is here and already David

Cameron said a separate Scotland would be worse off as he praised

Alistair Darling for his work in support of the Union. The SNP were

quick to point out the Prime Minister couldn't remember the name

of the Better Together campaign. Is this the higher level of debate

they have all been calling for? In a moment, we'll discuss just where

the debate might go, if anywhere, this year. First, Steven Godden

reports on how this may turn out to Back to work in Scotland's towns

and cities. Some of long faces to match the long nights. The

decorations are down. The highlights of 2012 are now locked

away in the archives. But the perennial question arises, what

will 2013 hold? On the face of it, this year's calendar is looking

fairly thin. Across the River Clyde, Glasgow's newest concert venue is

opening in September. But generally, set piece occasions are thin on the

Will it this year simply be a case of treading water or more history

remember it as 12 months of real significance? Above all else, at

Yes campaign has to give Scots who are either undecided or not really

committed an absolutely convincing reason to get behind the yes

campaign and start committing themselves to that yes vote. This

has to be the year that they do it. If they do not, the game will run

away from them and they will be left with too much to do. Key to

the political debate will be the backdrop of austerity. 20 13 brings

a big changes to the welfare system. -- 2013. The cumulative effect will

be quite significant on the Scottish economy. It will affect

the economy and individuals. It will have an impact on shops, jobs

added will have a much broader impact than just on individuals.

But whether it is the economy, politics or the dogs, concrete

predictions about the year ahead are notoriously risky. 2011, who

saw the SNP's landslide victory in the Holyrood elections? So no

predictions, but perhaps and educated guess. Do not expect

decorum up to win it the day. as an historic argument. Scotland's

relationship with the rest of the world. That means of the arguments

are going to be heated, exaggerated and passionate. Why anyone would

want that passion to be taken out of politics I fail to understand.

Now Newsnight Scotland usually indulges sparingly in crystal-ball

gazing, but tonight we'll make an exception. I'm joined from

Edinburgh by the journalist and commentator Iain Macwhirter, and by

the pro-independence blogger Kate Higgins. And here in Glasgow is Amy

Dalrymple, who is policy and research manager for Scottish

Chambers of Commerce. Good evening and happy New Year.

This is going to be a rather unusual you. No elections up to

speak of it. How do you think the independence debate will frame up?

I think it will be positive, respectful but that will not last

much longer. This is the year when Scots are supposed to be making

their mature decisions about the constitutional future. The SNP will

be trying to give some detail with the referendum Bill and the white

paper on independence in the autumn. But the Better Together campaign it

will be getting on the road as well. Alistair Darling is coming up to

meet opinion formers. We will also be having Treasury are reports, 12

of them, showing how disastrous independence would be. This will be

quite interesting. The UK Government will have that. We will

have the white paper in the autumn. The two sides are trying to

convince the undecided this year. Do you think that will happen?

if we get more light and less heat. If we can move people away from

polarised positions and him to mature, grown-up debate, the kind

of debate we all want, then, yes, it is possible. To some extent, we

have to take the political parties out of that. Passions do run fast

and there is everything to play for. But I think we have seen positive

signs of from the Scottish government in particular,

particularly in the announcement about setting up a commission

regarding the welfare state. That is only a good thing. When we get

into discussing the facts about what kind of country we can be,

post independence, or indeed if Scotland votes in no, that is

something that everyone will have something to say and discuss.

Speaking about immaturity of the debate -- about the immaturity of

the debate, the passion, how do you think that debate will proceed?

2013 it should be about see him at some meat on the bones. -- about

seeing. It is actually looking quite positive just now. We are

going to be encouraging both sides of the debate to retain that

positivity and to start putting some substance around it. We have

gone over all the arguments about how we are going to do it. We go

that we have the referendum, that is when the decision will be. This

will be the here put the game get in depth of -- this will be the

here when we can get in depth over the issues. Will they get to that

stage when we have these high- falutin, esoteric discussions?

There will be lots of hours. There are a row was brewing over the

question. -- there will be lots of Rose. There is a row brewing over

the question. The SNP want a relatively small amount of money

going into it, the Better Together campaign is in favour of more. The

SNP are quite sincere when they say they are going to show more detail

about what independence would mean. Last year, the best up a bit over

the of the European argument. -- the messed. Alex Salmond said he

had legal advice over joining the European Union again. Jose Manuel

Barroso said they would have to apply again. I think there will be

a lot more detail gone into. I do not think it is necessarily going

to help the yes campaign terribly much, because Better Together are

very pleased when supporters of independence go into detail, when

they talk about a separate Scottish BBC, a separate Scottish Power and,

that is when the voters see they are not sure of this. We are

hearing there are going to be more debates. Does that engage ordinary

people out there? Absolutely not. These are the kind of debates that

fascinate the people involved in the programme tonight and everybody

in the campaign, but most of the population are just getting on with

their lives. The sooner we get away from the old arguments and on to

the issues of substance, I think more people will be attentive to

what is being said. Take the high politics out of it. People do not

want to know about the billions in terms of the economy, what they

want to know is their own personal finances and their own lives and

how they will be affected. One of the arguments that the Better

Together campaign has started putting out is about the

uncertainty and independence. But there will be uncertainty in the

economy and finances in the coming here. Actually, the right

environment for the yes campaign to We have these esoteric discussions

about Europe but surely we need these to get a certain points?

Clearly. I am not saying they are not important. But they are not

going to help people make their decisions. This is not what is

going to help people vote. What our members want to know all about his,

are they still going to be within a single UK economy or not? Are they

still going to be in the European economy? Things about the currency,

they want to know what the currency will be. It is a very difficult

question to answer. I thought you were saying these are the issues

that people are not interested in. The process issues are the ones you

were mentioning earlier, the spending limits for the election,

what the wording of the question will be. Personally I am interested

in then as much as the next person. Our members are not. Those

questions are about what Scotland is going to look like when it is

independent. These are important issues, however much we must --

might dismiss them. Let's broaden the debate are taking the economy.

This is another central point for the debate, and we are looking

forward to it as a critical issue in 2013. Kate, we will see some

significant welfare reform issues. That will feed into the

independence debate. The welfare changes... Do you think that could

influence the debate up here? We have seen Universal Credit coming

in and lot of people having a lot less money. Absolutely. I think the

Scottish government and the yes campaign have cottoned on to this,

that some of the change is coming down the line to the welfare state

are quite frightening in terms of their scale, and they are only

starting to come through in 2013. It is only early 2014 that they

will really take hold. The better it -- Be Better Together campaign

say we are better in the UK, but if the UK Government is dismantling

the welfare state, and all of the things that make us feel British,

suddenly there are no more reasons to stay. Welfare reform in

particular, it will not just be the most vulnerable, there are

households to rely on people on low incomes who will be very badly

affected. The working poor, if you like. This is the background he

shook the ball played quite largely in terms of persuading people to

vote yes. What the people on the ground think? The House of Fraser

was reporting good sales, new car sales are art. Do you think the

economy will play a key role in 2013? -- car sales are up. What a

lot of commentators failed to take into account were the unpredictable

things, the eurozone crisis for example. They postponed any diff --

decisions until April or May, so nothing will kick-off in terms of

solving that crisis until early autumn. It will take a long time.

These external factors are not going to go away. There will be a

lot of pressure on the economy and we are not expecting any great

shakes, but we are expecting bright points, we expect tourism to do

very well, and this is where the Olympic legacy will kicking from

last year. That was the shop window and it enabled people to see what

we have on offer, tourism Wise. We will see bright points in terms of

energy, food and drink, all of the Scottish economy, but it will

remain a struggle for a lot of businesses. Going back to what cake

was talking about, the welfare reforms and what effect that will

happen -- have. -- Kate. In 2013 we want the government to recognise

what SMIs can do. By 2013 we are meant to have balanced the books.

It will be an important milestone for trying to step up to that. 2013

does not look like many bright points for the UK Government.

It is more than likely that we will see a triple dip recession, that

the economy will lapse back in 2013. That is important because it means

the next UK election becomes very doubtful for the Tories. It is

beginning to look as if Labour will be forming the next government,

particularly if the Lib Dems decide they are not going to play ball in

a subsequent coalition after 2015. The prospect of a Labour government

in future might undermine the case, in some people's eyes, for voting

for independence. That would be to protect Scotland against Tory

policies. It is not the same if Labour Robin Powell. On the economy,

it will be very crucial to the bait if -- the debate. Absolutely, and

there are more important political issues facing people in the present.

Politics is important in the present as well as the future. If

you can have an independence free week when we talk about the

politics of the economy, jobs, money in people's pockets right now

and the hardship that many families and small businesses are going to

face, that would be welcome. I am afraid we have run out of time.

Thank you. Just time for a quick look at the newspapers. The

Scotsman, PM vows to win Scotts' Hearts and minds. In the Scottish

Daily Mail, man who doubled gas bills set for 13 million pound deal.