23/01/2013 Newsnight Scotland


23/01/2013

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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, more on the EU referendum debate. We'll

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ask the External Affairs Minister and the Deputy Leader of the

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Scottish Tories what effect it'll have on that other referendum

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campaign. And is support building for independence? The annual Social

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Attitudes Survey has some suggestions. Good evening. David

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Cameron has made a pledge to a referendum on Europe if the

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Conservatives won an outright majority at the next general

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election. An election that will be held after the independence

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referendum. How will the debate and Europe affect the debate here?

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It began in 1973 when Edward Heath took Britain into Europe. 40 years

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later, the relationship still dominates the thought of a

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Conservative Prime Minister. It is an issue that guarantees David

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Cameron and attentive audience. As the country sat down to breakfast,

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he delivered a much anticipated speech. The content came as no

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surprise. The next Conservative manifesto in 2015 will ask for a

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mandate from the British people for a Conservative Government to

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negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next

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Parliament. When we have negotiated that new settlement, we would give

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the British people are referendum with a very simple in or Howard

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tries. The plan is to give people their say on Europe. The stroke of

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a pen last October committed David Cameron to a more immediate test of

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public opinion. When it comes to Scottish independence he says his

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attitude is similar. We should trust the people, give them that

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choice. That is why there will be a referendum on whether Scotland

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stays in the United Kingdom. I passionately believe Richard and I

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hope it will. It is the same on this issue. You can put your head

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in the sand and pretend that somehow this is you will go away

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and that somehow events will turn out all right. -- this issue. That

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is simply incredible. Those on the other side of the independence

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debate pounced on what they saw as double standards. Why does the

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Prime Minister think the Scottish referendum process is too long but

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five years is all right? Back in Edinburgh, the theme of uncertainty

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was one that Alex Salmond want to. It blows at huge hole in the

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Unionist parties are denied. The Scottish referendum is next year.

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The European referendum he is talking about is in five years.

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There is painfully little detail on what he is trying to do. Some of it

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is bizarrely contradictory. First Minister was touring a

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technology firm in the new bridge that exports 40% of the microwave

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components to Europe. The boss says David Cameron's pledge to hold a

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referendum on Europe will not change how they do business.

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uncertainty will not help. There are strong trade links. There would

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continue. -- they would continue. On Scotland's most northerly

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streets there was less certainty. We made the need a little more

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autonomy in relation to our own situation. I think we should stick

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with Europe. There have been a lot of complaints about the European

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Union. I think David Cameron was quite right to let the people

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decide. Tied up in others are questions about what Scottish

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independence would mean for new membership. Nicola Sturgeon

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welcomed the European Union's neutrality. Were the first minister,

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this has been sticky territory recently. This morning, he sensed

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an opportunity. Those who have been arguing that at an independent

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Scotland makes our position in Europe on certain have been

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nullified by this statement. It comes from the convoluted politics

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on the banks of the Thames just now. David Cameron's speech introduces

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another layer to a constitutional debate fall of ladies. For the

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voters responsible for shaping the final outcome, it promises to be a

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busy few years. I'm joined now by the Minister for External Affairs,

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Humza Yousaf, and from Edinburgh by the Deputy Leader of the Scottish

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Conservatives, Jackson Carlaw. I had been trying to pay attention

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to David Cameron. I have been asking myself what exactly he wants

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repatriated from Europe. From all the Conservatives I have listened

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to today, I have worked out you want junior doctors to work longer

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hours. What else would you like repatriated? The Prime Minister

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identified a number of key areas. We're talking about areas. But

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areas are not specific things. Apart from making junior doctors

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work harder, what is it you would like to be able to do in Britain

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that you cannot do now as part of the European Union? I think the

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first thing is we would like more democratic accountability for the

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UK Parliament. We would like a more decisive say over issues that hour

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concerned with us. That is not specific. Give us an example. Be

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warned people in Britain not to have the protection of health and

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safety? -- do you want. Specifically it is his use like

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that. Like what, for example? What health and safety regulation should

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we not have in Britain? We went into a European economic Community.

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We believed that the European Union should be relevant to the people of

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Britain in terms of the economic environments in which we operate.

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We do not as a party believe that the wider dynamic of moving to a

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United States of Europe is in the interest of the people of the

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United Kingdom. That is what we want to prevent. David Cameron

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talked about repatriating powers. Give me a single example. He

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mentioned environmental legislation. Which bit of environmental

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legislation that Europe has would you like to see us not have?

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seem confused by this. I do not think other people are. We want a

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rebalancing in the relationship between the United Kingdom and

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Europe. That is what the public feels needs to be done. There was

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nothing specific? Other than junior doctors. Of course it is specific.

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It is specific that went the referendum comes, there will be

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every balanced settlement. Yes, you are already said that. Do you

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really think and the SNP there is no need to repatriate any powers

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from the EU? Yes, we will negotiate our terms. We have already said, we

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will negotiate our terms of continued membership. We will be

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robust in terms of defending our interests. We see ourselves as

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being an engaging partner. It is not a bad grandstanding, puffing

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out your chest threatening to repatriate powers. I remember

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talking to Alex Salmond on this programme and he told me all about

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how you would not accept the Common Fisheries Policy and he wanted it

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abolished, or at least changed beyond recognition? I have made the

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position clear. It is not about going in there and demanding

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repatriation of powers. You do not need to find out specifics from me.

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We have spelled out things like being part of a common travel area.

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Presumably you would like to give the people of Scotland the

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opportunity to vote? There is a referendum in 2014. We will spell

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out in the White Paper this year exactly... Would you agree with

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David Cameron in negotiations on Europe? Is negotiations are not

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even begin until 2015. The story about the referendum, and we're

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talking about the Scottish Senkel, is that absolutely these arguments

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have been blown out of the border. There is uncertainty about the

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Scottish referendum. You are reluctant to talk about specifics.

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You will have to negotiate Scotland's position in the European

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Union. You have said you do not want to join the euro. You want

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changes in the fisheries policy. Will you give the people of

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:10:07.:10:12.

Scotland the chance to say yes or no to what you have negotiated?

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Because in 20th November 13 we will be spelling out -- in 20th November

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13 will be spelling out what we want to see. In this referendum

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campaign, will you be campaigning on the Yes or no side? I will be

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campaigning on the Yes side. It is the renegotiated settlement that I

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believe is right for the United Kingdom. Just as I can envisage a

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United -- an independent Scotland, I can envisage a United Kingdom

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Matip Europe. -- out of Europe. do not know what you want

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repatriated to the UK and you do not know if you will be campaigning

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for a Yes or no vote in the referendum? I am very clear that

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when I see the renegotiated terms David Cameron is able to secure, I

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would be clear whether or not I feel they have read balanced the

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decision-making process in the interests of Britain,

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satisfactorily, and in a way that meets the concerns daiquiri

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expressed whenever I go about. -- that I year expressed. It is about

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making sure we can compete in the European economy and not about

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Europe telling us how we should League highlights. Just to be clear

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from you, even if Scotland votes for independence, we do not get the

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chance to vote for whether or not we are in or out of Europe? Yes

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tries magna macro? Yes. We will be engaging partners within Europe.

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But why shouldn't we have the chance? If people vote for

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independence, you have a number of different political parties putting

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forward their perspectives for the first independent Scottish

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parliament. It may be up to the Conservatives to put forward the

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repatriation of powers. Do you think the UK could leave? Of course

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there is a danger. Your plan then would be for Scotland to be a

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member of the European Union, not a member of the euro and part of a

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currency sans with a country which is leading the European Union? --

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zone. Of course of the rest of the UK decides to opt out of Europe, we

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would have to look at how that would risk -- affect Scotland's

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relationship with Europe. He would have to look at it. There would

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What do you think of that, the idea that an independent Scotland could

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be part of a currency zone with sterling while the UK was not part

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of the European Union? I don't think it's likely. I feel the

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position curious that the SNP, who believe it's right for the people

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of Scotland to be able to have a vote on whether or not we are part

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of the United Kingdom. Let's remember the SNP came in in the

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year 2007 to office. This referendum is seven years of

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unSeine certainty after they came to office. Albeit they said it

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would be in a few years time. The SNP, I heard Alex Salmond said the

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referendum is next year. It wasn't Alex Salmond who delivered the

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referendum, just as on Scotland and the European Union, it has taken a

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Conservative Prime Minister to give the people of the United Kingdom a

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say on all of these issues. Thank you all very much indeed.

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Now, there appears to have been a significant drop in support for

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independence. Despite the independence debate

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moving to the top of the political agenda.

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Yes, campaigners have apparently struggled to persuade voters of the

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merits of their case. The annual Scottish Social

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Attitudes Survey also contains a warning for unionists.

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Researchers say there's a big gap between the powers people want

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Holyrood to have and the powers they think it has now. July 2012

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and the Olympic torch is touring the UK. It is when the organisers

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of the annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey began Thai work.

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They found that the "yes" side appears to be falling back. Voters

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:15:03.:15:04.

were presented with the following 23% agreed, down from 32% in 2011.

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Equal to the lowest recorded since 1999. Interestingly, during the

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years the SNP was in opposition, 30% on average supported

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independence. During the years they have held power, that figure has

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averaged out at 26%. The argument that independence would thread a

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more just society seems not to be convincing voters. Whereas 19%

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thought the gap between rich and poor would reduce under

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independence, 25% expect it to increase and 47% think it will make

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no difference. There is comfort for the Nationalists. Look at the gap

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between the proportion of Scots who would like the Scottish government

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have more influence over how Scotland is run and those who

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believe it actually does. Asked about setting tax levels, 56% said

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most decisions should be made by the Scottish Parliament, when it

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comes to who should make most decisions on welfare, 64% said most

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of them should also lie with the Scottish Parliament. Given that,

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it's not surprising support for some form of defo max is still

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strong. There is one problem, you won't have the option of voting for

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I'm joined now from Edinburgh by the Director of the Scottish Social

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Attitudes Survey, Rachel Ormston. What should we make of the drop for

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independence? You have 23% and that is the same question that you have

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been asking for years, isn't it? That has gone down significantly.

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When you ask people - do they think the Scottish Parliament should run

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everything, 35 of them say, yes? Yes. If you ask the questions a

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different way you will get slightly different answers. What we would

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note about that is that actually there has been a similar size of

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drop on that question from 2011 to 2012 as well. On that measure too

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it looks like support for independence is certainly down over

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the last 12 months. Right. Taking into all the usual poll things

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about, you know, don't take one overly seriously, you are saying

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there is a trend here. The trend seems to be been backed up by

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recent opinion polls? Indeed. There has been a down ward trend across

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opinion polls in 2012. So far the poll that is have happened this

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year don't seem to contradict that. Do you have any insights into why

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the fall in shorp for independence seems to be happening -- support

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for independence seems to be happening that the SNP in favour of

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independence is in office. The opposite seemed to happen when

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their opponents were in office? of the interesting factors

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underlying this is that actually people seem rather less

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dissatisfied that the deal Scotland is get frgt union in the year since

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2007 than the years prior to. That people are more likely now to feel

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Scotland gets its fair share or more than its fair share of UK

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government spending. They are less likely to think England's economy

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benefits more from the union than they were in the pre-2007 years. It

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looks like slightly pe versely for the SNP one of the impacts of

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having a government in Scotland that is different in terms of the

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party from the government in Westminster and regularly standing

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up for Scotland's interests is that it seems to have made people rather

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less dissatisfied with Scotland's position within the union. I don't

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think there have been big changes in terms of who supports

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independence, have there? Let's run through it. In terms of age,

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younger people are more likely to? Yes. They are more likely to. In

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2012 again, it's own a minority of 18-24-year-olds, around 30% of 18-

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24-year-olds. That is quite a lot higher. Women less likely? Yes.

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Women are consistently between five or seven points less likely to

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support independence than men. about class differences? Those in

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professional occupations who are least positive about independence.

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Those in routine occupations intend to be somewhat more positive.

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does that mean? Does that mean as you move down these horrible number

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scales that support rises, is that right? Well, I suppose support is

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higher in what might have been classed as traditionally working-

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class occupations than what might have been traditionally classed as

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middle-class occupations. The other extraordinary result you have is

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that what most people want is the option they are not going to get?

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Yes. It's not actually true that most people necessarily - that

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devolution max is necessarily the single most popular option, what

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you find is because those who support independence would also

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support more devolution, if that was the only option on the table,

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it seems to be the only option that is capable of gaining a a majority

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support at this point in time. Thank you very much for joining us.

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We will discuss the referendum again on Monday in a Newsnight

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Scotland Special debate programme. An audience representing Scotland's

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ethnic minority communities will question leading politicians on

:20:42.:20:45.

some of the issues raised by the referendum and the prospect of

:20:45.:20:47.

Scottish independence. That's from 10.30pm on Monday. Now,

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That's from 10.30pm on Monday. Now, tomorrow's papers: Scottish backing

:20:51.:20:59.

for UK split down says -- split down, what we have been talking

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about. That is the survey we were talking about. The Ind pend

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