06/03/2013 Newsnight Scotland


06/03/2013

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Transcript


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going to step into the vacuum is going to step into the vacuum is

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going to step into the vacuum is far from clear at the moment.

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far from clear at the moment. far from clear at the moment.

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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as

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Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as the latest figures for Scotland's

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the latest figures for Scotland's the latest figures for Scotland's

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accounts are published a leaked accounts are published a leaked

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document shows the Government document shows the Government

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questioning its own rosy questioning its own rosy

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assumptions about independence. assumptions about independence.

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assumptions about independence. Where does that leave the debate?

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Where does that leave the debate? Where does that leave the debate?

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We'll ask whether an independent We'll ask whether an independent

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We'll ask whether an independent Scotland would be better or worse

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off. off.

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Good evening. Today's snappily Good evening. Today's snappily

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titled Government Expenditure and titled Government Expenditure and

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titled Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland figures give us

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Revenue in Scotland figures give us Revenue in Scotland figures give us

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Revenue in Scotland figures give us some idea of the state of the

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some idea of the state of the some idea of the state of the

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finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked

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finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked

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document gives some idea of how the document gives some idea of how the

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document gives some idea of how the Scottish Government sees the future.

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Scottish Government sees the future. The internal document suggests

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The internal document suggests The internal document suggests

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Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger

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Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger

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public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a

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public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a

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whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's

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whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's now been overtaken by events.

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now been overtaken by events. now been overtaken by events.

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Steven Godden has the details. Steven Godden has the details.

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Steven Godden has the details. We reject utterly the arguments of

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We reject utterly the arguments of We reject utterly the arguments of

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those who want Scotland to break those who want Scotland to break

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those who want Scotland to break away from the United Kingdom.

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away from the United Kingdom. Government Expenditure and Revenue

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Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures were commissioned

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Scotland figures were commissioned Scotland figures were commissioned

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Scotland figures were commissioned by the Government in the early '90

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by the Government in the early '90 by the Government in the early '90

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setting out actual levels of tax and spending.

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and spending. and spending.

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and spending. To some, the point of the exercise

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To some, the point of the exercise was to underline Scotland's

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was to underline Scotland's was to underline Scotland's

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was to underline Scotland's dependence on the UK - fast forward

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dependence on the UK - fast forward dependence on the UK - fast forward

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two decades, and the document tells two decades, and the document tells

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a different, albeit dramatically a different, albeit dramatically

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a different, albeit dramatically awkward story. Compared to the rest

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awkward story. Compared to the rest awkward story. Compared to the rest

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awkward story. Compared to the rest of the UK, Scotland is less badly

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of the UK, Scotland is less badly of the UK, Scotland is less badly

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off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British

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off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British

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finances are in such a mess. That's finances are in such a mess. That's

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finances are in such a mess. That's what's driving all the business

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what's driving all the business what's driving all the business

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about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the

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about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the

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size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to

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size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to

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size of the deficit and trying to stop the rise in debt at a UK level,

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stop the rise in debt at a UK level, stop the rise in debt at a UK level,

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and the Scottish figures reflect and the Scottish figures reflect

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and the Scottish figures reflect that to some extent, but they're

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that to some extent, but they're that to some extent, but they're

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that to some extent, but they're made to look much better in the

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made to look much better in the made to look much better in the

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made to look much better in the year we have heard about today, and

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year we have heard about today, and year we have heard about today, and

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year we have heard about today, and in the past few years because it's

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in the past few years because it's in the past few years because it's

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in the past few years because it's been a pretty golden period for oil

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been a pretty golden period for oil been a pretty golden period for oil

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and gas. The headline figures show and gas. The headline figures show

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and gas. The headline figures show that in the year spanning 2011,

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that in the year spanning 2011, that in the year spanning 2011,

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2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation

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2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation

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added up to almost �57 billion. In added up to almost �57 billion. In

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added up to almost �57 billion. In the same period total spending

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the same period total spending including capital expenditure

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including capital expenditure including capital expenditure

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amounted to �64.5 billion. That amounted to �64.5 billion. That

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amounted to �64.5 billion. That leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion,

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leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion, leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion,

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which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP.

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which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP.

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Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the

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Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the

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Compare that to the figure for the UK as a whole - a deficit of �121

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UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 UK as a whole - a deficit of �121

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UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point

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billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point

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about the figures in this document about the figures in this document

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about the figures in this document is that they have been calculated

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is that they have been calculated to include Scotland's

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to include Scotland's to include Scotland's

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geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea

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geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea

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oil revenue, a figure of around �10 oil revenue, a figure of around �10

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oil revenue, a figure of around �10 billion that currently finds its

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billion that currently finds its billion that currently finds its

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billion that currently finds its way to the UK Treasury, so while

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way to the UK Treasury, so while way to the UK Treasury, so while

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the pages of this document aren't the pages of this document aren't

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the pages of this document aren't quite dripping with black gold, its

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quite dripping with black gold, its quite dripping with black gold, its

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significance is clear. It is significance is clear. It is

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significance is clear. It is absolutely colossal. It is the

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absolutely colossal. It is the absolutely colossal. It is the

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elephant in the room on any elephant in the room on any

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statement of Scottish Government statement of Scottish Government

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revenues and spending. Without revenues and spending. Without

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revenues and spending. Without North Sea oil revenues, there would

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North Sea oil revenues, there would North Sea oil revenues, there would

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be little debate. North Sea oil be little debate. North Sea oil

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be little debate. North Sea oil revenues do transform the whole

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revenues do transform the whole revenues do transform the whole

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political and economic argument in political and economic argument in

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political and economic argument in Scotland. There is no doubt about

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Scotland. There is no doubt about Scotland. There is no doubt about

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that. The SNP Government hope the that. The SNP Government hope the

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upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence

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upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence

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will allow them to move beyond the will allow them to move beyond the

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hypothetical. The Finance Secretary hypothetical. The Finance Secretary

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believes the report strengthens believes the report strengthens

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their argument. This report their argument. This report

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their argument. This report demonstrates that Scotland pays its

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demonstrates that Scotland pays its demonstrates that Scotland pays its

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way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK

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way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK

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revenue, and we get back in return revenue, and we get back in return

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revenue, and we get back in return 9.3% of UK expenditure. It

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9.3% of UK expenditure. It demonstrates Scotland is

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demonstrates Scotland is demonstrates Scotland is

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contributing more to the United contributing more to the United

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contributing more to the United Kingdom than we're getting back in

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Kingdom than we're getting back in Kingdom than we're getting back in

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return and establishes very strong return and establishes very strong

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return and establishes very strong foundation for Scotland to be a

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foundation for Scotland to be a foundation for Scotland to be a

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country that can manage our own country that can manage our own

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country that can manage our own resources and use our economic

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resources and use our economic resources and use our economic

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powers and discretion to create the powers and discretion to create the

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best economic conditions for Scotland.

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MUSIC MUSIC

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MUSIC MUSIC

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But while the oil and gas sector But while the oil and gas sector

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But while the oil and gas sector generates huge sums of money, its

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generates huge sums of money, its generates huge sums of money, its

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volatility is acknowledged in a volatility is acknowledged in a

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volatility is acknowledged in a Scottish Government paper leaked to

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Scottish Government paper leaked to Scottish Government paper leaked to

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the BBC, with both price and the BBC, with both price and

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production notoriously difficult to production notoriously difficult to

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production notoriously difficult to predict. The paper contains a

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predict. The paper contains a predict. The paper contains a

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warning - because estimates of warning - because estimates of

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warning - because estimates of future tax rev news were revised

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future tax rev news were revised future tax rev news were revised

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downwards, forecast for the deficit downwards, forecast for the deficit

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more than doubled, creating more than doubled, creating

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considerable uncertainty for considerable uncertainty for

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considerable uncertainty for Scotland's finances. The paper was

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Scotland's finances. The paper was Scotland's finances. The paper was

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drafted in the wake of last drafted in the wake of last

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drafted in the wake of last spring's UK budget. The Scottish

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spring's UK budget. The Scottish spring's UK budget. The Scottish

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Government say it's been overtaken Government say it's been overtaken

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Government say it's been overtaken by event, but opponents have seized

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by event, but opponents have seized by event, but opponents have seized

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by event, but opponents have seized on it. From year to year, they

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on it. From year to year, they acknowledge themselves finally -

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acknowledge themselves finally - acknowledge themselves finally -

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there's huge volatility. That tax there's huge volatility. That tax

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there's huge volatility. That tax base cannot be depended on to

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base cannot be depended on to base cannot be depended on to

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deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from

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deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from

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oil and gas every year as we've oil and gas every year as we've

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oil and gas every year as we've enjoyed this particular year. As

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enjoyed this particular year. As enjoyed this particular year. As

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enjoyed this particular year. As part of the UK, we can cope with

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part of the UK, we can cope with part of the UK, we can cope with

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part of the UK, we can cope with those changes. We can build on the

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those changes. We can build on the those changes. We can build on the

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strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country

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strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country

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we'd have to face up to some tough we'd have to face up to some tough

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we'd have to face up to some tough choices, and the SNP routinely fail

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choices, and the SNP routinely fail choices, and the SNP routinely fail

:04:54.:04:55.

choices, and the SNP routinely fail to answer the questions we ask of

:04:55.:04:56.

to answer the questions we ask of to answer the questions we ask of

:04:56.:04:57.

them. As for the immediate future, them. As for the immediate future,

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them. As for the immediate future, there is little from economists to

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there is little from economists to suggest a dramatic turnaround.

:05:00.:05:03.

suggest a dramatic turnaround. suggest a dramatic turnaround.

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Growth has been weaker than Growth has been weaker than

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Growth has been weaker than expected according to the Fraser

:05:06.:05:08.

expected according to the Fraser expected according to the Fraser

:05:08.:05:09.

and Alander Instut, who today and Alander Instut, who today

:05:09.:05:11.

downgraded their forecasts for downgraded their forecasts for

:05:11.:05:12.

downgraded their forecasts for Scottish GDP. While we're seeing

:05:12.:05:14.

Scottish GDP. While we're seeing Scottish GDP. While we're seeing

:05:14.:05:16.

Scottish GDP. While we're seeing some growth in our forecasts of .9%,

:05:16.:05:17.

some growth in our forecasts of .9%, some growth in our forecasts of .9%,

:05:17.:05:18.

we have reduced it from our we have reduced it from our

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we have reduced it from our previous forecast, we're not seeing

:05:20.:05:22.

previous forecast, we're not seeing previous forecast, we're not seeing

:05:22.:05:24.

strong growth, but by "strong" strong growth, but by "strong"

:05:24.:05:25.

strong growth, but by "strong" we're talking about 2.5% over the

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we're talking about 2.5% over the we're talking about 2.5% over the

:05:27.:05:29.

we're talking about 2.5% over the horizon, and we think we might get

:05:29.:05:30.

horizon, and we think we might get horizon, and we think we might get

:05:30.:05:31.

horizon, and we think we might get back closer to that by 2015, but of

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back closer to that by 2015, but of back closer to that by 2015, but of

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back closer to that by 2015, but of course, that's a long way ahead and

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course, that's a long way ahead and very difficult to forecast.

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very difficult to forecast. # Burning #

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# Burning # # Burning #

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So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy

:05:39.:05:41.

So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy

:05:41.:05:43.

as a whole or a particular sector, as a whole or a particular sector,

:05:43.:05:45.

as a whole or a particular sector, like oil and gas, tough predictions

:05:45.:05:45.

like oil and gas, tough predictions like oil and gas, tough predictions

:05:45.:05:52.

like oil and gas, tough predictions seem to be a recurring theme. We'll

:05:52.:05:53.

seem to be a recurring theme. We'll seem to be a recurring theme. We'll

:05:53.:05:57.

hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a

:05:57.:05:58.

hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a

:05:58.:05:59.

moment. But first I'm joined by the moment. But first I'm joined by the

:05:59.:06:00.

moment. But first I'm joined by the economist Jo Armstrong from the

:06:00.:06:01.

economist Jo Armstrong from the economist Jo Armstrong from the

:06:01.:06:01.

Centre for Public Policy and Centre for Public Policy and

:06:02.:06:03.

Centre for Public Policy and Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked

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Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked

:06:03.:06:04.

Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked document - I don't know if the

:06:04.:06:05.

document - I don't know if the document - I don't know if the

:06:05.:06:06.

document - I don't know if the viewers can see it - I should point

:06:06.:06:08.

viewers can see it - I should point viewers can see it - I should point

:06:08.:06:10.

out the James Bond cover was out the James Bond cover was

:06:10.:06:11.

out the James Bond cover was contributed by the Better Together

:06:11.:06:13.

contributed by the Better Together contributed by the Better Together

:06:13.:06:13.

campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get

:06:13.:06:14.

campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get

:06:14.:06:15.

anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What

:06:15.:06:16.

anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What

:06:16.:06:17.

anyone they can to read this. What do you make of the fact that if I

:06:17.:06:18.

do you make of the fact that if I do you make of the fact that if I

:06:18.:06:19.

am reading it correctly, John am reading it correctly, John

:06:19.:06:21.

am reading it correctly, John Sweeney himself seems to say that

:06:21.:06:22.

Sweeney himself seems to say that Sweeney himself seems to say that

:06:22.:06:23.

an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have

:06:23.:06:25.

an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have

:06:25.:06:26.

a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK

:06:26.:06:28.

a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK

:06:28.:06:28.

by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was

:06:28.:06:30.

by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was

:06:30.:06:30.

interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it

:06:30.:06:31.

interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it

:06:31.:06:32.

reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been

:06:32.:06:34.

reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been

:06:34.:06:35.

seeing over the last two year, is seeing over the last two year, is

:06:35.:06:37.

seeing over the last two year, is that they're taking the current

:06:37.:06:38.

that they're taking the current fiscal balance position and

:06:38.:06:39.

fiscal balance position and fiscal balance position and

:06:39.:06:44.

extrapolating through to 2016, 2017 extrapolating through to 2016, 2017

:06:44.:06:45.

the current good position the current good position

:06:46.:06:48.

the current good position the current good position

:06:48.:06:49.

Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and

:06:49.:06:50.

Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and

:06:50.:06:51.

turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that

:06:51.:06:52.

turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that

:06:52.:06:52.

document, the UK is in a better document, the UK is in a better

:06:52.:06:54.

position than Scotland. However, position than Scotland. However,

:06:54.:06:55.

position than Scotland. However, it's still a fiscal deficit, so

:06:55.:06:57.

it's still a fiscal deficit, so it's still a fiscal deficit, so

:06:57.:06:59.

whoever is using the numbers to whoever is using the numbers to

:07:00.:07:01.

present the picture, fiscal present the picture, fiscal

:07:01.:07:02.

present the picture, fiscal austerity is something that still

:07:02.:07:03.

austerity is something that still austerity is something that still

:07:03.:07:05.

austerity is something that still has to be dealt with unless we get

:07:05.:07:06.

has to be dealt with unless we get significant economic growth.

:07:06.:07:07.

significant economic growth. significant economic growth.

:07:08.:07:10.

also really depends on accepting - also really depends on accepting -

:07:10.:07:11.

also really depends on accepting - and John Sweeney in his document

:07:11.:07:12.

and John Sweeney in his document and John Sweeney in his document

:07:12.:07:14.

very explicitly says he accepts the very explicitly says he accepts the

:07:14.:07:18.

office for budget responsibility's office for budget responsibility's

:07:18.:07:20.

office for budget responsibility's figures for oil revenues. Yes.I

:07:20.:07:22.

figures for oil revenues. Yes.I figures for oil revenues. Yes.I

:07:22.:07:23.

think today the SNP have been think today the SNP have been

:07:23.:07:23.

think today the SNP have been trying too suggest that maybe there

:07:24.:07:25.

trying too suggest that maybe there trying too suggest that maybe there

:07:25.:07:26.

has been a recent spate of has been a recent spate of

:07:26.:07:27.

has been a recent spate of investment in the North Sea, and

:07:27.:07:28.

investment in the North Sea, and investment in the North Sea, and

:07:28.:07:28.

that could change things around. Do that could change things around. Do

:07:29.:07:30.

that could change things around. Do you think that's the case?

:07:30.:07:31.

you think that's the case? you think that's the case?

:07:31.:07:32.

current investment in the North Sea current investment in the North Sea

:07:32.:07:33.

current investment in the North Sea has clearly been assisted by two

:07:33.:07:36.

has clearly been assisted by two has clearly been assisted by two

:07:36.:07:37.

things - higher oil prices and things - higher oil prices and

:07:37.:07:39.

things - higher oil prices and flexible tax regime. What that does

:07:39.:07:40.

flexible tax regime. What that does flexible tax regime. What that does

:07:40.:07:42.

flexible tax regime. What that does is help extend the life of the

:07:42.:07:43.

is help extend the life of the fields, extend the production

:07:43.:07:44.

fields, extend the production fields, extend the production

:07:44.:07:45.

fields, extend the production coming out of the North Sea. It

:07:45.:07:46.

coming out of the North Sea. It coming out of the North Sea. It

:07:46.:07:47.

isn't in any way likely to isn't in any way likely to

:07:47.:07:50.

fundamentally change the tax fundamentally change the tax

:07:50.:07:52.

fundamentally change the tax reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.

:07:52.:07:53.

reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.

:07:53.:07:54.

reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.

:07:54.:07:58.

But why not if there is a spike in But why not if there is a spike in

:07:58.:07:59.

exploration? Because the production exploration? Because the production

:07:59.:08:00.

exploration? Because the production that's coming onstream now and the

:08:00.:08:01.

that's coming onstream now and the that's coming onstream now and the

:08:01.:08:03.

production that has been invested production that has been invested

:08:03.:08:04.

production that has been invested in now is a more expensive

:08:04.:08:05.

in now is a more expensive in now is a more expensive

:08:05.:08:06.

investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive

:08:06.:08:07.

investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive

:08:07.:08:09.

oil to take out of the North Sea, oil to take out of the North Sea,

:08:09.:08:10.

oil to take out of the North Sea, and we've got a more expensive

:08:11.:08:12.

and we've got a more expensive and we've got a more expensive

:08:12.:08:13.

maintenance programme that needs to maintenance programme that needs to

:08:14.:08:15.

maintenance programme that needs to be funded from revenues, so the

:08:15.:08:16.

be funded from revenues, so the be funded from revenues, so the

:08:16.:08:17.

revenue we have generated that's revenue we have generated that's

:08:17.:08:18.

revenue we have generated that's taxable will be reduced as a

:08:18.:08:19.

taxable will be reduced as a taxable will be reduced as a

:08:19.:08:20.

taxable will be reduced as a consequence of that. But what I -

:08:20.:08:22.

consequence of that. But what I - consequence of that. But what I -

:08:22.:08:22.

obviously the John Swinney document obviously the John Swinney document

:08:22.:08:23.

obviously the John Swinney document was referring to the OBR figures

:08:24.:08:25.

was referring to the OBR figures was referring to the OBR figures

:08:25.:08:26.

was referring to the OBR figures from the budget, but the OBR then

:08:26.:08:28.

from the budget, but the OBR then from the budget, but the OBR then

:08:28.:08:29.

produced more figures in December produced more figures in December

:08:29.:08:30.

produced more figures in December with the autumn statement. Yes.

:08:30.:08:31.

with the autumn statement. Yes. with the autumn statement. Yes.

:08:31.:08:32.

They actually forecast for most They actually forecast for most

:08:32.:08:34.

They actually forecast for most years, not all - actually, they

:08:34.:08:36.

years, not all - actually, they have downgraded their expectations

:08:36.:08:37.

have downgraded their expectations have downgraded their expectations

:08:37.:08:39.

have downgraded their expectations of tax receipts from oil, so one

:08:39.:08:40.

of tax receipts from oil, so one of tax receipts from oil, so one

:08:40.:08:40.

presumes John Swinney would accept presumes John Swinney would accept

:08:41.:08:42.

presumes John Swinney would accept that as well, but what you're

:08:42.:08:43.

that as well, but what you're that as well, but what you're

:08:43.:08:45.

saying is that could be compatible saying is that could be compatible

:08:45.:08:47.

saying is that could be compatible with a spike upwards in

:08:47.:08:49.

with a spike upwards in production... Absolutely. For the

:08:49.:08:50.

production... Absolutely. For the reasons you have outlined.

:08:50.:08:54.

reasons you have outlined. reasons you have outlined.

:08:54.:08:55.

Absolutely, yes. OK. The other Absolutely, yes. OK. The other

:08:55.:08:56.

Absolutely, yes. OK. The other thing that's obviously been picked

:08:56.:08:58.

thing that's obviously been picked thing that's obviously been picked

:08:58.:09:00.

thing that's obviously been picked up on this is a fairly explicit

:09:00.:09:02.

up on this is a fairly explicit recommendation - recognition by

:09:02.:09:03.

recommendation - recognition by recommendation - recognition by

:09:03.:09:04.

John Swinney in this document that John Swinney in this document that

:09:04.:09:05.

John Swinney in this document that the problem Scotland has with an

:09:05.:09:07.

the problem Scotland has with an the problem Scotland has with an

:09:07.:09:08.

ageing population will be there ageing population will be there

:09:08.:09:09.

ageing population will be there even in an independent Scotland to

:09:09.:09:10.

even in an independent Scotland to even in an independent Scotland to

:09:10.:09:11.

even in an independent Scotland to the extent that he appears to be

:09:11.:09:12.

the extent that he appears to be the extent that he appears to be

:09:12.:09:13.

suggesting they might have to suggesting they might have to

:09:13.:09:14.

suggesting they might have to contemplate cuts in public spending

:09:14.:09:16.

contemplate cuts in public spending contemplate cuts in public spending

:09:16.:09:17.

contemplate cuts in public spending or even cuts in pensions. If we

:09:17.:09:17.

or even cuts in pensions. If we or even cuts in pensions. If we

:09:18.:09:18.

have a fiscal deficit, which is have a fiscal deficit, which is

:09:18.:09:20.

have a fiscal deficit, which is what these numbers are showing and

:09:20.:09:21.

what these numbers are showing and what these numbers are showing and

:09:21.:09:22.

what these numbers are showing and we can't see how we're going to

:09:22.:09:23.

we can't see how we're going to we can't see how we're going to

:09:23.:09:25.

increase the tax take or the increase the tax take or the

:09:25.:09:26.

increase the tax take or the assumption is we're not likely to

:09:26.:09:27.

assumption is we're not likely to assumption is we're not likely to

:09:27.:09:29.

increase taxes to increase the tax increase taxes to increase the tax

:09:29.:09:30.

increase taxes to increase the tax take, then any additional demand

:09:30.:09:31.

take, then any additional demand take, then any additional demand

:09:31.:09:32.

take, then any additional demand coming through has to be met from

:09:32.:09:34.

coming through has to be met from coming through has to be met from

:09:34.:09:35.

coming through has to be met from that fixed cake, and if we haven't

:09:35.:09:35.

that fixed cake, and if we haven't that fixed cake, and if we haven't

:09:36.:09:36.

got the Department for Work and got the Department for Work and

:09:36.:09:37.

got the Department for Work and Pensions or the Treasury supporting

:09:37.:09:38.

Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting

:09:38.:09:39.

Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting

:09:39.:09:40.

that, then it has to come out of a that, then it has to come out of a

:09:40.:09:41.

that, then it has to come out of a fixed budget. Therefore it's likely

:09:41.:09:43.

fixed budget. Therefore it's likely fixed budget. Therefore it's likely

:09:43.:09:43.

fixed budget. Therefore it's likely other services might have to be cut

:09:44.:09:45.

other services might have to be cut other services might have to be cut

:09:45.:09:46.

to accommodate. We have a problem to accommodate. We have a problem

:09:46.:09:47.

to accommodate. We have a problem with an ageing population compared

:09:48.:09:49.

with an ageing population compared with an ageing population compared

:09:49.:09:49.

with an ageing population compared to... We have marginally more of a

:09:49.:09:50.

to... We have marginally more of a to... We have marginally more of a

:09:50.:09:51.

to... We have marginally more of a problem in Scotland than in the UK

:09:51.:09:52.

problem in Scotland than in the UK problem in Scotland than in the UK

:09:52.:09:52.

problem in Scotland than in the UK at the moment, but I think it's

:09:52.:09:54.

at the moment, but I think it's at the moment, but I think it's

:09:54.:09:55.

important to reflect on the fact important to reflect on the fact

:09:55.:09:56.

important to reflect on the fact that the document is a document

:09:56.:09:58.

that the document is a document that the document is a document

:09:58.:09:59.

that talks about, you know, the that talks about, you know, the

:09:59.:10:00.

that talks about, you know, the current fiscal regime. It doesn't

:10:00.:10:02.

current fiscal regime. It doesn't current fiscal regime. It doesn't

:10:02.:10:02.

talk about the leavers that the talk about the leavers that the

:10:03.:10:03.

talk about the leavers that the Scottish Government might have, and

:10:03.:10:06.

Scottish Government might have, and Scottish Government might have, and

:10:06.:10:07.

in fact, the leaked document itself in fact, the leaked document itself

:10:07.:10:08.

in fact, the leaked document itself doesn't allude to any additional

:10:08.:10:10.

doesn't allude to any additional doesn't allude to any additional

:10:10.:10:12.

powers being used to generate a powers being used to generate a

:10:12.:10:13.

significant additional growth or significant additional growth or

:10:13.:10:14.

significant additional growth or significant additional growth or

:10:14.:10:15.

indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have

:10:15.:10:16.

indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have

:10:16.:10:18.

to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds

:10:18.:10:18.

to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds

:10:18.:10:20.

that this is a very static picture that this is a very static picture

:10:20.:10:21.

that this is a very static picture of the current spending... That

:10:21.:10:22.

of the current spending... That of the current spending... That

:10:22.:10:23.

slightly surprised me. What would slightly surprised me. What would

:10:23.:10:25.

slightly surprised me. What would you suggest would be available to

:10:25.:10:27.

you suggest would be available to you suggest would be available to

:10:27.:10:28.

them because we don't really have them because we don't really have

:10:28.:10:30.

them because we don't really have any specific proposals, do we?

:10:30.:10:31.

any specific proposals, do we? any specific proposals, do we?

:10:31.:10:32.

don't, but the document itself don't, but the document itself

:10:32.:10:33.

don't, but the document itself doesn't talk about scenarios which

:10:33.:10:34.

doesn't talk about scenarios which suggest let's fundamentally change

:10:34.:10:35.

suggest let's fundamentally change suggest let's fundamentally change

:10:35.:10:36.

suggest let's fundamentally change - and use leavers in a different

:10:36.:10:37.

- and use leavers in a different - and use leavers in a different

:10:37.:10:38.

way. It suggests we're going to way. It suggests we're going to

:10:38.:10:40.

way. It suggests we're going to continue to use the leavers as

:10:40.:10:41.

continue to use the leavers as continue to use the leavers as

:10:41.:10:43.

they're currently being used. they're currently being used.

:10:43.:10:44.

they're currently being used. think there are options.

:10:44.:10:45.

think there are options. Scottish Government themselves talk

:10:45.:10:46.

Scottish Government themselves talk Scottish Government themselves talk

:10:47.:10:48.

about options. They talk about about options. They talk about

:10:48.:10:49.

about options. They talk about about options. They talk about

:10:49.:10:50.

using the fiscal powers in a way using the fiscal powers in a way

:10:50.:10:53.

using the fiscal powers in a way that would to either use lower

:10:53.:10:55.

that would to either use lower corporation taxes or encouraging

:10:55.:10:58.

corporation taxes or encouraging investment in Scotland, generate

:10:58.:10:59.

investment in Scotland, generate additional growth, additional

:10:59.:11:00.

additional growth, additional additional growth, additional

:11:00.:11:01.

employment. None of that is employment. None of that is

:11:01.:11:01.

employment. None of that is discussed in the document. Whether

:11:02.:11:02.

discussed in the document. Whether discussed in the document. Whether

:11:03.:11:04.

discussed in the document. Whether the document is a full document and

:11:04.:11:05.

the document is a full document and the document is a full document and

:11:05.:11:06.

whether that's discussed in another whether that's discussed in another

:11:06.:11:08.

whether that's discussed in another part of the document is difficult

:11:08.:11:09.

part of the document is difficult part of the document is difficult

:11:09.:11:10.

part of the document is difficult to tell. Right. OK. Thank you very

:11:10.:11:11.

much. much.

:11:11.:11:12.

much. I'm joined now from Edinburgh by

:11:12.:11:13.

I'm joined now from Edinburgh by I'm joined now from Edinburgh by

:11:13.:11:13.

the local Government Minister Derek the local Government Minister Derek

:11:13.:11:14.

the local Government Minister Derek Mackay and here in Glasgow by

:11:14.:11:15.

Mackay and here in Glasgow by Labour's finance spokesman, Ken

:11:15.:11:19.

Macintosh. Macintosh.

:11:19.:11:21.

Macintosh. Macintosh.

:11:21.:11:22.

What do you make of this, Derek What do you make of this, Derek

:11:22.:11:22.

What do you make of this, Derek Mackay, that John Swinney himself

:11:22.:11:24.

Mackay, that John Swinney himself Mackay, that John Swinney himself

:11:24.:11:25.

seems to be suggesting that an seems to be suggesting that an

:11:25.:11:26.

seems to be suggesting that an independent Scotland by 2016 would

:11:26.:11:27.

independent Scotland by 2016 would independent Scotland by 2016 would

:11:27.:11:28.

independent Scotland by 2016 would have a larger budget deficit as a

:11:28.:11:30.

have a larger budget deficit as a have a larger budget deficit as a

:11:30.:11:31.

have a larger budget deficit as a proportion of GDP than the UK?

:11:31.:11:32.

proportion of GDP than the UK? proportion of GDP than the UK?

:11:32.:11:34.

I think that the analysis shows I think that the analysis shows

:11:34.:11:35.

I think that the analysis shows that Scotland's fiscal strength is

:11:35.:11:36.

that Scotland's fiscal strength is that Scotland's fiscal strength is

:11:36.:11:37.

actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms

:11:38.:11:38.

actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms

:11:38.:11:39.

than the rest of the United Kingdom, than the rest of the United Kingdom,

:11:39.:11:40.

than the rest of the United Kingdom, and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am

:11:40.:11:42.

and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am

:11:42.:11:45.

talking about this document. It talking about this document. It

:11:45.:11:46.

talking about this document. It shows that by 2016-'17 although

:11:46.:11:48.

shows that by 2016-'17 although shows that by 2016-'17 although

:11:48.:11:50.

shows that by 2016-'17 although both the UK and Scotland have lower

:11:50.:11:51.

both the UK and Scotland have lower both the UK and Scotland have lower

:11:51.:11:52.

deficits because the economy is deficits because the economy is

:11:52.:11:55.

allegedly getting better, actually, allegedly getting better, actually,

:11:55.:11:58.

allegedly getting better, actually, the turnaround is that in 2016-'17

:11:58.:11:59.

the turnaround is that in 2016-'17 the turnaround is that in 2016-'17

:11:59.:12:00.

and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit

:12:00.:12:01.

and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit

:12:01.:12:01.

in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in

:12:01.:12:02.

in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in

:12:02.:12:04.

the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a

:12:04.:12:05.

the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a

:12:05.:12:07.

point in time based on the OBR point in time based on the OBR

:12:07.:12:07.

predictions, and certainly there predictions, and certainly there

:12:07.:12:08.

predictions, and certainly there has been great deal of movement

:12:08.:12:10.

has been great deal of movement has been great deal of movement

:12:10.:12:12.

since then. Yes, the OBR have since then. Yes, the OBR have

:12:12.:12:13.

downgraded their projections for downgraded their projections for

:12:13.:12:14.

downgraded their projections for oil revenues. The in temples of

:12:15.:12:16.

oil revenues. The in temples of oil revenues. The in temples of

:12:16.:12:17.

economic growth, that's a separate economic growth, that's a separate

:12:17.:12:19.

matter, specifically about oil. matter, specifically about oil.

:12:19.:12:21.

matter, specifically about oil. This is an important point, how

:12:21.:12:22.

This is an important point, how Scotland's fiscal position has

:12:22.:12:23.

Scotland's fiscal position has Scotland's fiscal position has

:12:23.:12:25.

Scotland's fiscal position has moved on since that pay. There is

:12:25.:12:26.

moved on since that pay. There is actually over �3 billion

:12:26.:12:27.

actually over �3 billion contributed to Scotland's economy

:12:27.:12:29.

contributed to Scotland's economy contributed to Scotland's economy

:12:29.:12:29.

contributed to Scotland's economy in terms of that figure because oil

:12:29.:12:31.

in terms of that figure because oil in terms of that figure because oil

:12:31.:12:32.

prices are higher than they prices are higher than they

:12:32.:12:33.

prices are higher than they prices are higher than they

:12:33.:12:34.

predicted - I think around $95 a predicted - I think around $95 a

:12:35.:12:36.

predicted - I think around $95 a barrel. The current price is about

:12:36.:12:38.

barrel. The current price is about barrel. The current price is about

:12:38.:12:40.

$115 a barrel. In a separate $115 a barrel. In a separate

:12:40.:12:41.

$115 a barrel. In a separate Government department in the UK,

:12:41.:12:43.

Government department in the UK, Government department in the UK,

:12:43.:12:45.

Government department in the UK, has forecast it to go to $132 a

:12:45.:12:46.

has forecast it to go to $132 a has forecast it to go to $132 a

:12:46.:12:48.

barrel. That is the first barrel. That is the first

:12:48.:12:49.

barrel. That is the first substantial shift since that report.

:12:49.:12:49.

substantial shift since that report. substantial shift since that report.

:12:49.:12:50.

substantial shift since that report. It was produced - it put Scotland

:12:50.:12:51.

It was produced - it put Scotland It was produced - it put Scotland

:12:51.:12:52.

in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial

:12:52.:12:54.

in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial

:12:54.:12:55.

position. So you don't know - sorry. position. So you don't know - sorry.

:12:55.:12:56.

position. So you don't know - sorry. Hang on. John Swinney says quite

:12:56.:12:58.

Hang on. John Swinney says quite Hang on. John Swinney says quite

:12:58.:12:58.

explicitly he accepts the OBR explicitly he accepts the OBR

:12:58.:13:01.

forecast for oil production forecast for oil production

:13:01.:13:02.

forecast for oil production revenues. You're now sayIng you

:13:02.:13:03.

revenues. You're now sayIng you revenues. You're now sayIng you

:13:03.:13:04.

don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was

:13:04.:13:05.

don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was

:13:05.:13:05.

forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time.

:13:05.:13:06.

forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time.

:13:07.:13:07.

forecast at that point in time. no. I have just read out to you the

:13:07.:13:08.

no. I have just read out to you the no. I have just read out to you the

:13:08.:13:11.

figures in December where the OBR figures in December where the OBR

:13:11.:13:12.

figures in December where the OBR are forecasting even lower revenue

:13:12.:13:12.

are forecasting even lower revenue are forecasting even lower revenue

:13:13.:13:14.

than Swinney was taking when he than Swinney was taking when he

:13:14.:13:16.

than Swinney was taking when he wrote his document in March.

:13:16.:13:17.

wrote his document in March. wrote his document in March.

:13:17.:13:18.

Reality is in the current position, Reality is in the current position,

:13:18.:13:20.

Reality is in the current position, �3 billion more is generated

:13:20.:13:21.

�3 billion more is generated �3 billion more is generated

:13:21.:13:22.

through the actual figures than through the actual figures than

:13:22.:13:24.

through the actual figures than forecast - the OBR produced...

:13:24.:13:26.

forecast - the OBR produced... forecast - the OBR produced...

:13:26.:13:26.

enough. When that document was enough. When that document was

:13:26.:13:27.

enough. When that document was published over a year ago. The

:13:27.:13:29.

published over a year ago. The published over a year ago. The

:13:29.:13:31.

published over a year ago. The debate has moved on. The debate has

:13:31.:13:32.

debate has moved on. The debate has debate has moved on. The debate has

:13:32.:13:33.

moved on! Which shows Scotland is moved on! Which shows Scotland is

:13:33.:13:43.
:13:43.:13:50.

moved on! Which shows Scotland is I actually thought that the one

:13:50.:13:51.

I actually thought that the one I actually thought that the one

:13:51.:13:52.

I actually thought that the one benefit of this document is that it

:13:52.:13:54.

benefit of this document is that it benefit of this document is that it

:13:54.:13:55.

reveals the difference between the reveals the difference between the

:13:55.:13:56.

private utterances and public private utterances and public

:13:56.:13:58.

private utterances and public debate that we are having about

:13:58.:13:59.

debate that we are having about debate that we are having about

:13:59.:14:01.

Scotland's future. The truth is Scotland's future. The truth is

:14:01.:14:03.

Scotland's future. The truth is revealed in this document. At least

:14:03.:14:04.

revealed in this document. At least revealed in this document. At least

:14:05.:14:05.

revealed in this document. At least we will get some honesty in the

:14:05.:14:07.

we will get some honesty in the we will get some honesty in the

:14:07.:14:09.

debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But

:14:09.:14:10.

debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But

:14:10.:14:12.

clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a

:14:12.:14:13.

clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a

:14:13.:14:15.

vain hope. On the other side of vain hope. On the other side of

:14:15.:14:16.

vain hope. On the other side of this, of course they are being

:14:16.:14:18.

this, of course they are being realistic, but an independent

:14:18.:14:19.

realistic, but an independent realistic, but an independent

:14:20.:14:21.

Scotland would be a perfectly Scotland would be a perfectly

:14:21.:14:22.

Scotland would be a perfectly viable economy according to this

:14:22.:14:24.

viable economy according to this viable economy according to this

:14:24.:14:24.

leaked document. And as Jo leaked document. And as Jo

:14:24.:14:26.

leaked document. And as Jo Armstrong was pointing out earlier,

:14:26.:14:27.

Armstrong was pointing out earlier, Armstrong was pointing out earlier,

:14:27.:14:28.

Armstrong was pointing out earlier, it does not talk about the things

:14:28.:14:29.

it does not talk about the things it does not talk about the things

:14:29.:14:31.

that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could

:14:31.:14:33.

that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could

:14:33.:14:38.

do to try to help the economy. do to try to help the economy.

:14:38.:14:39.

do to try to help the economy. trouble with this document is that

:14:39.:14:41.

trouble with this document is that trouble with this document is that

:14:41.:14:43.

independence is not the magic independence is not the magic

:14:43.:14:44.

independence is not the magic bullet. The SNP government keep

:14:44.:14:48.

bullet. The SNP government keep deferring decisions and saying

:14:48.:14:49.

deferring decisions and saying deferring decisions and saying

:14:49.:14:50.

deferring decisions and saying everything will be all right if we

:14:51.:14:52.

everything will be all right if we everything will be all right if we

:14:52.:14:54.

vote Yes in the referendum next vote Yes in the referendum next

:14:54.:14:55.

vote Yes in the referendum next year. We will have full fiscal

:14:55.:14:56.

year. We will have full fiscal year. We will have full fiscal

:14:56.:14:58.

powers. They imply that we will powers. They imply that we will

:14:58.:14:59.

powers. They imply that we will have higher benefits and lower

:14:59.:15:02.

have higher benefits and lower have higher benefits and lower

:15:02.:15:03.

taxes. That is very implausible and taxes. That is very implausible and

:15:03.:15:06.

taxes. That is very implausible and they don't believe it themselves.

:15:06.:15:08.

they don't believe it themselves. they don't believe it themselves.

:15:08.:15:09.

That is absolutely not the case. That is absolutely not the case.

:15:09.:15:15.

That is absolutely not the case. Even on the worst case scenario,

:15:15.:15:16.

Even on the worst case scenario, Even on the worst case scenario,

:15:16.:15:18.

Even on the worst case scenario, Scotland would be in a surplus of

:15:18.:15:20.

Scotland would be in a surplus of Scotland would be in a surplus of

:15:20.:15:21.

Scotland would be in a surplus of some �16 billion by 2016 on the

:15:21.:15:25.

some �16 billion by 2016 on the most conservative forecast.

:15:25.:15:26.

most conservative forecast. most conservative forecast.

:15:26.:15:27.

Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would

:15:27.:15:29.

Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would

:15:29.:15:30.

be better off to the tune of �4 be better off to the tune of �4

:15:30.:15:32.

be better off to the tune of �4 billion and one financial year. Per

:15:32.:15:34.

billion and one financial year. Per billion and one financial year. Per

:15:34.:15:36.

head of population and that is head of population and that is

:15:36.:15:39.

head of population and that is head of population and that is

:15:39.:15:40.

quite a lot. If you don't accept quite a lot. If you don't accept

:15:40.:15:41.

quite a lot. If you don't accept the figures for oil revenues that

:15:41.:15:43.

the figures for oil revenues that the figures for oil revenues that

:15:43.:15:43.

the figures for oil revenues that will publish by the a BR, despite

:15:43.:15:46.

will publish by the a BR, despite will publish by the a BR, despite

:15:46.:15:47.

will publish by the a BR, despite the fact that John Swinney says he

:15:48.:15:54.

the fact that John Swinney says he the fact that John Swinney says he

:15:54.:16:01.

the fact that John Swinney says he does accept them.... Pat -- that is

:16:01.:16:03.

does accept them.... Pat -- that is does accept them.... Pat -- that is

:16:03.:16:06.

not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting

:16:06.:16:10.

not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting

:16:10.:16:11.

that that a decline in oil price of that that a decline in oil price of

:16:11.:16:12.

that that a decline in oil price of �4.5 billion, what figures do you

:16:13.:16:13.

�4.5 billion, what figures do you �4.5 billion, what figures do you

:16:14.:16:14.

�4.5 billion, what figures do you have it as a projection that you

:16:14.:16:15.

have it as a projection that you have it as a projection that you

:16:15.:16:16.

the Scottish government are using, the Scottish government are using,

:16:16.:16:19.

the Scottish government are using, that a different? We will be

:16:19.:16:21.

that a different? We will be producing more financial

:16:21.:16:24.

producing more financial producing more financial

:16:25.:16:26.

information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this

:16:26.:16:27.

information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this

:16:27.:16:27.

clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a

:16:27.:16:28.

clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a

:16:28.:16:29.

matter of fact that you never -- matter of fact that you never --

:16:29.:16:31.

matter of fact that you never -- that you no longer accept the

:16:31.:16:32.

that you no longer accept the that you no longer accept the

:16:32.:16:33.

that you no longer accept the though BR figures and you have a

:16:33.:16:36.

though BR figures and you have a though BR figures and you have a

:16:36.:16:39.

though BR figures and you have a new set of figures of all revenue

:16:39.:16:41.

new set of figures of all revenue new set of figures of all revenue

:16:41.:16:44.

predictions -- of oil revenue predictions -- of oil revenue

:16:44.:16:45.

predictions -- of oil revenue predictions? You keep reading out

:16:45.:16:46.

predictions? You keep reading out predictions? You keep reading out

:16:46.:16:48.

predictions? You keep reading out an old set of figures. This is from

:16:48.:16:51.

an old set of figures. This is from an old set of figures. This is from

:16:51.:16:52.

December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast

:16:52.:16:56.

December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast

:16:56.:16:57.

is up by �3 billion. We know all is up by �3 billion. We know all

:16:57.:16:59.

is up by �3 billion. We know all prices are volatile, they say there

:16:59.:17:00.

prices are volatile, they say there prices are volatile, they say there

:17:00.:17:02.

prices are volatile, they say there will be a decline. I am asking if

:17:02.:17:04.

will be a decline. I am asking if will be a decline. I am asking if

:17:04.:17:05.

you have different figures. you have different figures.

:17:05.:17:06.

you have different figures. figures be published today show

:17:06.:17:07.

figures be published today show figures be published today show

:17:07.:17:08.

figures be published today show that for every man woman and child

:17:08.:17:10.

that for every man woman and child that for every man woman and child

:17:10.:17:12.

in Scotland, they would be many in Scotland, they would be many

:17:12.:17:13.

in Scotland, they would be many pounds better off. The that is

:17:13.:17:15.

pounds better off. The that is completely different. There are

:17:15.:17:17.

completely different. There are completely different. There are

:17:17.:17:22.

other assumptions from that Cabinet other assumptions from that Cabinet

:17:22.:17:22.

other assumptions from that Cabinet paper. There are assumptions on

:17:22.:17:24.

paper. There are assumptions on defence. The assignation to

:17:24.:17:27.

defence. The assignation to defence. The assignation to

:17:27.:17:29.

expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 expenditure in Scotland of �2.9

:17:29.:17:30.

expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 million, and that will expenditure

:17:30.:17:33.

million, and that will expenditure million, and that will expenditure

:17:34.:17:34.

million, and that will expenditure is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and

:17:34.:17:36.

is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and

:17:36.:17:37.

actual expenditure is �2 billion. actual expenditure is �2 billion.

:17:37.:17:39.

actual expenditure is �2 billion. That is quite different. That shows

:17:39.:17:41.

That is quite different. That shows That is quite different. That shows

:17:41.:17:44.

a room for manoeuvre and financial a room for manoeuvre and financial

:17:44.:17:45.

flexibility. The UK Government's flexibility. The UK Government's

:17:45.:17:50.

flexibility. The UK Government's figures show that Scotland more

:17:50.:18:00.
:18:00.:18:02.

figures show that Scotland more He talks about the volatility of

:18:02.:18:06.

He talks about the volatility of He talks about the volatility of

:18:06.:18:10.

oil prices and the a sustainability oil prices and the a sustainability

:18:10.:18:13.

oil prices and the a sustainability of a depleting resources. He talks

:18:13.:18:16.

of a depleting resources. He talks of a depleting resources. He talks

:18:16.:18:18.

about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions

:18:18.:18:19.

about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions

:18:19.:18:20.

and spending. I will give you a and spending. I will give you a

:18:20.:18:22.

and spending. I will give you a figure. Scotland in terms of

:18:22.:18:24.

figure. Scotland in terms of figure. Scotland in terms of

:18:24.:18:26.

wholesale value of oil can extract wholesale value of oil can extract

:18:26.:18:28.

wholesale value of oil can extract another 1.5 trillion pounds of

:18:28.:18:28.

another 1.5 trillion pounds of another 1.5 trillion pounds of

:18:28.:18:29.

another 1.5 trillion pounds of revenue from oil and gas. What a

:18:29.:18:33.

revenue from oil and gas. What a revenue from oil and gas. What a

:18:33.:18:34.

terrible weapon the -- have terrible weapon the -- have

:18:34.:18:35.

terrible weapon the -- have terrible for his country to be

:18:35.:18:36.

terrible for his country to be blessed with those natural

:18:36.:18:39.

blessed with those natural blessed with those natural

:18:39.:18:40.

resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in

:18:40.:18:41.

resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in

:18:41.:18:44.

all. Isn't it time that we had a all. Isn't it time that we had a

:18:44.:18:47.

all. Isn't it time that we had a government who did not spend oil

:18:47.:18:49.

government who did not spend oil government who did not spend oil

:18:49.:18:50.

three times over, and got the three times over, and got the

:18:50.:18:53.

three times over, and got the economy going again. Hang on Derek

:18:53.:18:56.

economy going again. Hang on Derek economy going again. Hang on Derek

:18:56.:19:00.

Mackay, you would at least accept, Mackay, you would at least accept,

:19:00.:19:01.

Mackay, you would at least accept, let show you some of tomorrow's

:19:01.:19:04.

let show you some of tomorrow's let show you some of tomorrow's

:19:04.:19:05.

papers. The Scottish Daily Mail papers. The Scottish Daily Mail

:19:05.:19:08.

front page headline, sleepwalking front page headline, sleepwalking

:19:08.:19:09.

front page headline, sleepwalking to disaster. The explosive least

:19:09.:19:11.

to disaster. The explosive least to disaster. The explosive least

:19:11.:19:12.

SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the

:19:12.:19:13.

SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the

:19:13.:19:14.

party has known for years about the party has known for years about the

:19:14.:19:17.

party has known for years about the huge problems facing Scotland. The

:19:17.:19:20.

huge problems facing Scotland. The huge problems facing Scotland. The

:19:20.:19:21.

Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to

:19:21.:19:23.

Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to

:19:23.:19:24.

cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can

:19:24.:19:26.

cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can

:19:26.:19:27.

hardly spin this as good news? hardly spin this as good news?

:19:27.:19:28.

hardly spin this as good news? wouldn't rely on those headlines in

:19:28.:19:30.

wouldn't rely on those headlines in wouldn't rely on those headlines in

:19:30.:19:31.

this instance. We are not proposing this instance. We are not proposing

:19:31.:19:33.

this instance. We are not proposing to cut spending. If you take

:19:33.:19:35.

to cut spending. If you take to cut spending. If you take

:19:35.:19:35.

defence fallen example, we are defence fallen example, we are

:19:35.:19:38.

defence fallen example, we are planning to spend more. The

:19:38.:19:39.

planning to spend more. The planning to spend more. The

:19:39.:19:40.

planning to spend more. The certainty we have from the UK is

:19:40.:19:41.

certainty we have from the UK is certainty we have from the UK is

:19:41.:19:42.

that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending.

:19:42.:19:43.

that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending.

:19:43.:19:44.

That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing

:19:44.:19:45.

That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing

:19:45.:19:45.

and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue

:19:45.:19:49.

and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue

:19:49.:19:50.

with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's

:19:50.:19:55.

with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's

:19:55.:19:55.

leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s....

:19:56.:19:56.

leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s....

:19:56.:20:01.

want to change the subject for a want to change the subject for a

:20:01.:20:03.

moment. Douglas Alexander talked moment. Douglas Alexander talked

:20:03.:20:03.

moment. Douglas Alexander talked about having a national convention

:20:03.:20:05.

about having a national convention about having a national convention

:20:05.:20:06.

about having a national convention if the people voted no, to vote

:20:06.:20:07.

if the people voted no, to vote if the people voted no, to vote

:20:07.:20:08.

if the people voted no, to vote what all the parties can agree on

:20:08.:20:09.

what all the parties can agree on what all the parties can agree on

:20:09.:20:10.

what all the parties can agree on for the future of Scotland. I am

:20:10.:20:12.

for the future of Scotland. I am for the future of Scotland. I am

:20:12.:20:13.

curious as to whether the Scottish curious as to whether the Scottish

:20:13.:20:14.

curious as to whether the Scottish Labour Party would agree with that

:20:14.:20:16.

Labour Party would agree with that Labour Party would agree with that

:20:16.:20:17.

Labour Party would agree with that proposal? It is one that we will

:20:17.:20:23.

proposal? It is one that we will certainly discuss. Instead of

:20:23.:20:27.

certainly discuss. Instead of certainly discuss. Instead of

:20:27.:20:30.

having this discussion.... You are having this discussion.... You are

:20:30.:20:32.

having this discussion.... You are planning now. We should talk

:20:32.:20:33.

planning now. We should talk through what devolution is.

:20:33.:20:35.

through what devolution is. through what devolution is.

:20:35.:20:37.

Devolution is here to stay. Would Devolution is here to stay. Would

:20:37.:20:38.

Devolution is here to stay. Would you support a national convention?

:20:39.:20:40.

you support a national convention? you support a national convention?

:20:40.:20:42.

you support a national convention? I'm not that against the idea.

:20:43.:20:44.

I'm not that against the idea. I'm not that against the idea.

:20:44.:20:46.

you think there are Scottish issues you think there are Scottish issues

:20:46.:20:47.

you think there are Scottish issues which are not just between Labour

:20:47.:20:50.

which are not just between Labour which are not just between Labour

:20:50.:20:51.

and the other parties? Because it and the other parties? Because it

:20:51.:20:52.

and the other parties? Because it is specifically supposed to be

:20:52.:20:54.

is specifically supposed to be is specifically supposed to be

:20:54.:20:55.

about other things in the about other things in the

:20:55.:20:57.

about other things in the constitution. I do not agree with

:20:57.:21:00.

constitution. I do not agree with that interpretation. Devolution can

:21:00.:21:01.

that interpretation. Devolution can that interpretation. Devolution can

:21:01.:21:02.

deliver for the people of Scotland. deliver for the people of Scotland.

:21:02.:21:06.

We don't need independence. We don't need independence.

:21:06.:21:10.

Devolution can deliver independent Devolution can deliver independent

:21:10.:21:12.

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