Browse content similar to 06/03/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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going to step into the vacuum is going to step into the vacuum is | :00:00. | :00:01. | |
going to step into the vacuum is far from clear at the moment. | :00:01. | :00:02. | |
far from clear at the moment. far from clear at the moment. | :00:02. | :00:12. | |
:00:12. | :00:12. | ||
Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as the latest figures for Scotland's | :00:15. | :00:16. | |
the latest figures for Scotland's the latest figures for Scotland's | :00:16. | :00:18. | |
accounts are published a leaked accounts are published a leaked | :00:18. | :00:19. | |
document shows the Government document shows the Government | :00:19. | :00:20. | |
questioning its own rosy questioning its own rosy | :00:20. | :00:21. | |
assumptions about independence. assumptions about independence. | :00:21. | :00:23. | |
assumptions about independence. Where does that leave the debate? | :00:23. | :00:24. | |
Where does that leave the debate? Where does that leave the debate? | :00:24. | :00:24. | |
We'll ask whether an independent We'll ask whether an independent | :00:24. | :00:25. | |
We'll ask whether an independent Scotland would be better or worse | :00:25. | :00:27. | |
off. off. | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
Good evening. Today's snappily Good evening. Today's snappily | :00:28. | :00:29. | |
titled Government Expenditure and titled Government Expenditure and | :00:29. | :00:30. | |
titled Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland figures give us | :00:30. | :00:31. | |
Revenue in Scotland figures give us Revenue in Scotland figures give us | :00:31. | :00:32. | |
Revenue in Scotland figures give us some idea of the state of the | :00:32. | :00:33. | |
some idea of the state of the some idea of the state of the | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked | :00:34. | :00:35. | |
finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked | :00:35. | :00:35. | |
document gives some idea of how the document gives some idea of how the | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
document gives some idea of how the Scottish Government sees the future. | :00:36. | :00:37. | |
Scottish Government sees the future. The internal document suggests | :00:37. | :00:38. | |
The internal document suggests The internal document suggests | :00:38. | :00:39. | |
Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger | :00:40. | :00:41. | |
public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a | :00:41. | :00:42. | |
public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a | :00:42. | :00:43. | |
whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's | :00:43. | :00:43. | |
whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's now been overtaken by events. | :00:43. | :00:44. | |
now been overtaken by events. now been overtaken by events. | :00:44. | :00:51. | |
Steven Godden has the details. Steven Godden has the details. | :00:51. | :00:52. | |
Steven Godden has the details. We reject utterly the arguments of | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
We reject utterly the arguments of We reject utterly the arguments of | :00:53. | :00:54. | |
those who want Scotland to break those who want Scotland to break | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
those who want Scotland to break away from the United Kingdom. | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
away from the United Kingdom. Government Expenditure and Revenue | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures were commissioned | :01:04. | :01:05. | |
Scotland figures were commissioned Scotland figures were commissioned | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
Scotland figures were commissioned by the Government in the early '90 | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
by the Government in the early '90 by the Government in the early '90 | :01:07. | :01:10. | |
setting out actual levels of tax and spending. | :01:10. | :01:11. | |
and spending. and spending. | :01:11. | :01:12. | |
and spending. To some, the point of the exercise | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
To some, the point of the exercise was to underline Scotland's | :01:15. | :01:16. | |
was to underline Scotland's was to underline Scotland's | :01:16. | :01:17. | |
was to underline Scotland's dependence on the UK - fast forward | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
dependence on the UK - fast forward dependence on the UK - fast forward | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
two decades, and the document tells two decades, and the document tells | :01:23. | :01:24. | |
a different, albeit dramatically a different, albeit dramatically | :01:24. | :01:25. | |
a different, albeit dramatically awkward story. Compared to the rest | :01:25. | :01:26. | |
awkward story. Compared to the rest awkward story. Compared to the rest | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
awkward story. Compared to the rest of the UK, Scotland is less badly | :01:27. | :01:28. | |
of the UK, Scotland is less badly of the UK, Scotland is less badly | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British | :01:30. | :01:32. | |
off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
finances are in such a mess. That's finances are in such a mess. That's | :01:33. | :01:34. | |
finances are in such a mess. That's what's driving all the business | :01:34. | :01:35. | |
what's driving all the business what's driving all the business | :01:35. | :01:36. | |
about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the | :01:36. | :01:37. | |
about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the | :01:37. | :01:38. | |
size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to | :01:38. | :01:39. | |
size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
size of the deficit and trying to stop the rise in debt at a UK level, | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
stop the rise in debt at a UK level, stop the rise in debt at a UK level, | :01:42. | :01:42. | |
and the Scottish figures reflect and the Scottish figures reflect | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
and the Scottish figures reflect that to some extent, but they're | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
that to some extent, but they're that to some extent, but they're | :01:45. | :01:46. | |
that to some extent, but they're made to look much better in the | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
made to look much better in the made to look much better in the | :01:48. | :01:48. | |
made to look much better in the year we have heard about today, and | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
year we have heard about today, and year we have heard about today, and | :01:50. | :01:51. | |
year we have heard about today, and in the past few years because it's | :01:51. | :01:52. | |
in the past few years because it's in the past few years because it's | :01:52. | :01:52. | |
in the past few years because it's been a pretty golden period for oil | :01:52. | :02:00. | |
been a pretty golden period for oil been a pretty golden period for oil | :02:00. | :02:01. | |
and gas. The headline figures show and gas. The headline figures show | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
and gas. The headline figures show that in the year spanning 2011, | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
that in the year spanning 2011, that in the year spanning 2011, | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation | :02:09. | :02:10. | |
added up to almost �57 billion. In added up to almost �57 billion. In | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
added up to almost �57 billion. In the same period total spending | :02:12. | :02:13. | |
the same period total spending including capital expenditure | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
including capital expenditure including capital expenditure | :02:16. | :02:17. | |
amounted to �64.5 billion. That amounted to �64.5 billion. That | :02:17. | :02:19. | |
amounted to �64.5 billion. That leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion, | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion, leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion, | :02:21. | :02:22. | |
which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP. | :02:22. | :02:23. | |
which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP. | :02:23. | :02:24. | |
Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
Compare that to the figure for the UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 | :02:32. | :02:33. | |
UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point | :02:35. | :02:35. | |
about the figures in this document about the figures in this document | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
about the figures in this document is that they have been calculated | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
is that they have been calculated to include Scotland's | :02:39. | :02:40. | |
to include Scotland's to include Scotland's | :02:40. | :02:41. | |
geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea | :02:43. | :02:44. | |
oil revenue, a figure of around �10 oil revenue, a figure of around �10 | :02:44. | :02:44. | |
oil revenue, a figure of around �10 billion that currently finds its | :02:44. | :02:45. | |
billion that currently finds its billion that currently finds its | :02:45. | :02:46. | |
billion that currently finds its way to the UK Treasury, so while | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
way to the UK Treasury, so while way to the UK Treasury, so while | :02:48. | :02:49. | |
the pages of this document aren't the pages of this document aren't | :02:49. | :02:50. | |
the pages of this document aren't quite dripping with black gold, its | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
quite dripping with black gold, its quite dripping with black gold, its | :02:52. | :02:53. | |
significance is clear. It is significance is clear. It is | :02:53. | :02:54. | |
significance is clear. It is absolutely colossal. It is the | :02:54. | :02:55. | |
absolutely colossal. It is the absolutely colossal. It is the | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
elephant in the room on any elephant in the room on any | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
statement of Scottish Government statement of Scottish Government | :03:02. | :03:03. | |
revenues and spending. Without revenues and spending. Without | :03:03. | :03:04. | |
revenues and spending. Without North Sea oil revenues, there would | :03:05. | :03:06. | |
North Sea oil revenues, there would North Sea oil revenues, there would | :03:06. | :03:07. | |
be little debate. North Sea oil be little debate. North Sea oil | :03:07. | :03:08. | |
be little debate. North Sea oil revenues do transform the whole | :03:08. | :03:09. | |
revenues do transform the whole revenues do transform the whole | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
political and economic argument in political and economic argument in | :03:10. | :03:11. | |
political and economic argument in Scotland. There is no doubt about | :03:11. | :03:12. | |
Scotland. There is no doubt about Scotland. There is no doubt about | :03:13. | :03:14. | |
that. The SNP Government hope the that. The SNP Government hope the | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence | :03:19. | :03:20. | |
will allow them to move beyond the will allow them to move beyond the | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
hypothetical. The Finance Secretary hypothetical. The Finance Secretary | :03:22. | :03:24. | |
believes the report strengthens believes the report strengthens | :03:24. | :03:25. | |
their argument. This report their argument. This report | :03:25. | :03:26. | |
their argument. This report demonstrates that Scotland pays its | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
demonstrates that Scotland pays its demonstrates that Scotland pays its | :03:29. | :03:30. | |
way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
revenue, and we get back in return revenue, and we get back in return | :03:34. | :03:35. | |
revenue, and we get back in return 9.3% of UK expenditure. It | :03:35. | :03:36. | |
9.3% of UK expenditure. It demonstrates Scotland is | :03:36. | :03:37. | |
demonstrates Scotland is demonstrates Scotland is | :03:37. | :03:38. | |
contributing more to the United contributing more to the United | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
contributing more to the United Kingdom than we're getting back in | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
Kingdom than we're getting back in Kingdom than we're getting back in | :03:42. | :03:42. | |
return and establishes very strong return and establishes very strong | :03:42. | :03:43. | |
return and establishes very strong foundation for Scotland to be a | :03:43. | :03:44. | |
foundation for Scotland to be a foundation for Scotland to be a | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
country that can manage our own country that can manage our own | :03:46. | :03:48. | |
country that can manage our own resources and use our economic | :03:48. | :03:49. | |
resources and use our economic resources and use our economic | :03:49. | :03:50. | |
powers and discretion to create the powers and discretion to create the | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
best economic conditions for Scotland. | :03:53. | :03:55. | |
MUSIC MUSIC | :03:55. | :03:57. | |
MUSIC MUSIC | :03:57. | :03:58. | |
But while the oil and gas sector But while the oil and gas sector | :03:58. | :04:00. | |
But while the oil and gas sector generates huge sums of money, its | :04:00. | :04:01. | |
generates huge sums of money, its generates huge sums of money, its | :04:01. | :04:02. | |
volatility is acknowledged in a volatility is acknowledged in a | :04:02. | :04:03. | |
volatility is acknowledged in a Scottish Government paper leaked to | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
Scottish Government paper leaked to Scottish Government paper leaked to | :04:05. | :04:06. | |
the BBC, with both price and the BBC, with both price and | :04:06. | :04:07. | |
production notoriously difficult to production notoriously difficult to | :04:07. | :04:08. | |
production notoriously difficult to predict. The paper contains a | :04:08. | :04:10. | |
predict. The paper contains a predict. The paper contains a | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
warning - because estimates of warning - because estimates of | :04:12. | :04:13. | |
warning - because estimates of future tax rev news were revised | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
future tax rev news were revised future tax rev news were revised | :04:15. | :04:16. | |
downwards, forecast for the deficit downwards, forecast for the deficit | :04:16. | :04:18. | |
more than doubled, creating more than doubled, creating | :04:18. | :04:19. | |
considerable uncertainty for considerable uncertainty for | :04:19. | :04:20. | |
considerable uncertainty for Scotland's finances. The paper was | :04:20. | :04:21. | |
Scotland's finances. The paper was Scotland's finances. The paper was | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
drafted in the wake of last drafted in the wake of last | :04:23. | :04:24. | |
drafted in the wake of last spring's UK budget. The Scottish | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
spring's UK budget. The Scottish spring's UK budget. The Scottish | :04:26. | :04:27. | |
Government say it's been overtaken Government say it's been overtaken | :04:27. | :04:28. | |
Government say it's been overtaken by event, but opponents have seized | :04:28. | :04:30. | |
by event, but opponents have seized by event, but opponents have seized | :04:30. | :04:31. | |
by event, but opponents have seized on it. From year to year, they | :04:31. | :04:33. | |
on it. From year to year, they acknowledge themselves finally - | :04:33. | :04:34. | |
acknowledge themselves finally - acknowledge themselves finally - | :04:34. | :04:35. | |
there's huge volatility. That tax there's huge volatility. That tax | :04:35. | :04:36. | |
there's huge volatility. That tax base cannot be depended on to | :04:36. | :04:37. | |
base cannot be depended on to base cannot be depended on to | :04:37. | :04:38. | |
deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from | :04:38. | :04:39. | |
deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from | :04:39. | :04:40. | |
oil and gas every year as we've oil and gas every year as we've | :04:40. | :04:41. | |
oil and gas every year as we've enjoyed this particular year. As | :04:41. | :04:42. | |
enjoyed this particular year. As enjoyed this particular year. As | :04:42. | :04:44. | |
enjoyed this particular year. As part of the UK, we can cope with | :04:44. | :04:45. | |
part of the UK, we can cope with part of the UK, we can cope with | :04:45. | :04:46. | |
part of the UK, we can cope with those changes. We can build on the | :04:46. | :04:47. | |
those changes. We can build on the those changes. We can build on the | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country | :04:49. | :04:49. | |
strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
we'd have to face up to some tough we'd have to face up to some tough | :04:52. | :04:53. | |
we'd have to face up to some tough choices, and the SNP routinely fail | :04:53. | :04:54. | |
choices, and the SNP routinely fail choices, and the SNP routinely fail | :04:54. | :04:55. | |
choices, and the SNP routinely fail to answer the questions we ask of | :04:55. | :04:56. | |
to answer the questions we ask of to answer the questions we ask of | :04:56. | :04:57. | |
them. As for the immediate future, them. As for the immediate future, | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
them. As for the immediate future, there is little from economists to | :04:59. | :05:00. | |
there is little from economists to suggest a dramatic turnaround. | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
suggest a dramatic turnaround. suggest a dramatic turnaround. | :05:03. | :05:03. | |
Growth has been weaker than Growth has been weaker than | :05:03. | :05:06. | |
Growth has been weaker than expected according to the Fraser | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
expected according to the Fraser expected according to the Fraser | :05:08. | :05:09. | |
and Alander Instut, who today and Alander Instut, who today | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
downgraded their forecasts for downgraded their forecasts for | :05:11. | :05:12. | |
downgraded their forecasts for Scottish GDP. While we're seeing | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
Scottish GDP. While we're seeing Scottish GDP. While we're seeing | :05:14. | :05:16. | |
Scottish GDP. While we're seeing some growth in our forecasts of .9%, | :05:16. | :05:17. | |
some growth in our forecasts of .9%, some growth in our forecasts of .9%, | :05:17. | :05:18. | |
we have reduced it from our we have reduced it from our | :05:18. | :05:20. | |
we have reduced it from our previous forecast, we're not seeing | :05:20. | :05:22. | |
previous forecast, we're not seeing previous forecast, we're not seeing | :05:22. | :05:24. | |
strong growth, but by "strong" strong growth, but by "strong" | :05:24. | :05:25. | |
strong growth, but by "strong" we're talking about 2.5% over the | :05:25. | :05:27. | |
we're talking about 2.5% over the we're talking about 2.5% over the | :05:27. | :05:29. | |
we're talking about 2.5% over the horizon, and we think we might get | :05:29. | :05:30. | |
horizon, and we think we might get horizon, and we think we might get | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
horizon, and we think we might get back closer to that by 2015, but of | :05:31. | :05:32. | |
back closer to that by 2015, but of back closer to that by 2015, but of | :05:32. | :05:33. | |
back closer to that by 2015, but of course, that's a long way ahead and | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
course, that's a long way ahead and very difficult to forecast. | :05:36. | :05:37. | |
very difficult to forecast. # Burning # | :05:37. | :05:38. | |
# Burning # # Burning # | :05:38. | :05:39. | |
So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy | :05:41. | :05:43. | |
as a whole or a particular sector, as a whole or a particular sector, | :05:43. | :05:45. | |
as a whole or a particular sector, like oil and gas, tough predictions | :05:45. | :05:45. | |
like oil and gas, tough predictions like oil and gas, tough predictions | :05:45. | :05:52. | |
like oil and gas, tough predictions seem to be a recurring theme. We'll | :05:52. | :05:53. | |
seem to be a recurring theme. We'll seem to be a recurring theme. We'll | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a | :05:57. | :05:58. | |
hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a | :05:58. | :05:59. | |
moment. But first I'm joined by the moment. But first I'm joined by the | :05:59. | :06:00. | |
moment. But first I'm joined by the economist Jo Armstrong from the | :06:00. | :06:01. | |
economist Jo Armstrong from the economist Jo Armstrong from the | :06:01. | :06:01. | |
Centre for Public Policy and Centre for Public Policy and | :06:02. | :06:03. | |
Centre for Public Policy and Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked | :06:03. | :06:03. | |
Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked | :06:03. | :06:04. | |
Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked document - I don't know if the | :06:04. | :06:05. | |
document - I don't know if the document - I don't know if the | :06:05. | :06:06. | |
document - I don't know if the viewers can see it - I should point | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
viewers can see it - I should point viewers can see it - I should point | :06:08. | :06:10. | |
out the James Bond cover was out the James Bond cover was | :06:10. | :06:11. | |
out the James Bond cover was contributed by the Better Together | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
contributed by the Better Together contributed by the Better Together | :06:13. | :06:13. | |
campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get | :06:13. | :06:14. | |
campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What | :06:15. | :06:16. | |
anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What | :06:16. | :06:17. | |
anyone they can to read this. What do you make of the fact that if I | :06:17. | :06:18. | |
do you make of the fact that if I do you make of the fact that if I | :06:18. | :06:19. | |
am reading it correctly, John am reading it correctly, John | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
am reading it correctly, John Sweeney himself seems to say that | :06:21. | :06:22. | |
Sweeney himself seems to say that Sweeney himself seems to say that | :06:22. | :06:23. | |
an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have | :06:23. | :06:25. | |
an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have | :06:25. | :06:26. | |
a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK | :06:26. | :06:28. | |
a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK | :06:28. | :06:28. | |
by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was | :06:30. | :06:30. | |
interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it | :06:30. | :06:31. | |
interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it | :06:31. | :06:32. | |
reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been | :06:32. | :06:34. | |
reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been | :06:34. | :06:35. | |
seeing over the last two year, is seeing over the last two year, is | :06:35. | :06:37. | |
seeing over the last two year, is that they're taking the current | :06:37. | :06:38. | |
that they're taking the current fiscal balance position and | :06:38. | :06:39. | |
fiscal balance position and fiscal balance position and | :06:39. | :06:44. | |
extrapolating through to 2016, 2017 extrapolating through to 2016, 2017 | :06:44. | :06:45. | |
the current good position the current good position | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
the current good position the current good position | :06:48. | :06:49. | |
Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and | :06:50. | :06:51. | |
turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that | :06:51. | :06:52. | |
turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that | :06:52. | :06:52. | |
document, the UK is in a better document, the UK is in a better | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
position than Scotland. However, position than Scotland. However, | :06:54. | :06:55. | |
position than Scotland. However, it's still a fiscal deficit, so | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
it's still a fiscal deficit, so it's still a fiscal deficit, so | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
whoever is using the numbers to whoever is using the numbers to | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
present the picture, fiscal present the picture, fiscal | :07:01. | :07:02. | |
present the picture, fiscal austerity is something that still | :07:02. | :07:03. | |
austerity is something that still austerity is something that still | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
austerity is something that still has to be dealt with unless we get | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
has to be dealt with unless we get significant economic growth. | :07:06. | :07:07. | |
significant economic growth. significant economic growth. | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
also really depends on accepting - also really depends on accepting - | :07:10. | :07:11. | |
also really depends on accepting - and John Sweeney in his document | :07:11. | :07:12. | |
and John Sweeney in his document and John Sweeney in his document | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
very explicitly says he accepts the very explicitly says he accepts the | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
office for budget responsibility's office for budget responsibility's | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
office for budget responsibility's figures for oil revenues. Yes.I | :07:20. | :07:22. | |
figures for oil revenues. Yes.I figures for oil revenues. Yes.I | :07:22. | :07:23. | |
think today the SNP have been think today the SNP have been | :07:23. | :07:23. | |
think today the SNP have been trying too suggest that maybe there | :07:24. | :07:25. | |
trying too suggest that maybe there trying too suggest that maybe there | :07:25. | :07:26. | |
has been a recent spate of has been a recent spate of | :07:26. | :07:27. | |
has been a recent spate of investment in the North Sea, and | :07:27. | :07:28. | |
investment in the North Sea, and investment in the North Sea, and | :07:28. | :07:28. | |
that could change things around. Do that could change things around. Do | :07:29. | :07:30. | |
that could change things around. Do you think that's the case? | :07:30. | :07:31. | |
you think that's the case? you think that's the case? | :07:31. | :07:32. | |
current investment in the North Sea current investment in the North Sea | :07:32. | :07:33. | |
current investment in the North Sea has clearly been assisted by two | :07:33. | :07:36. | |
has clearly been assisted by two has clearly been assisted by two | :07:36. | :07:37. | |
things - higher oil prices and things - higher oil prices and | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
things - higher oil prices and flexible tax regime. What that does | :07:39. | :07:40. | |
flexible tax regime. What that does flexible tax regime. What that does | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
flexible tax regime. What that does is help extend the life of the | :07:42. | :07:43. | |
is help extend the life of the fields, extend the production | :07:43. | :07:44. | |
fields, extend the production fields, extend the production | :07:44. | :07:45. | |
fields, extend the production coming out of the North Sea. It | :07:45. | :07:46. | |
coming out of the North Sea. It coming out of the North Sea. It | :07:46. | :07:47. | |
isn't in any way likely to isn't in any way likely to | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
fundamentally change the tax fundamentally change the tax | :07:50. | :07:52. | |
fundamentally change the tax reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. | :07:52. | :07:53. | |
reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. | :07:53. | :07:54. | |
reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
But why not if there is a spike in But why not if there is a spike in | :07:58. | :07:59. | |
exploration? Because the production exploration? Because the production | :07:59. | :08:00. | |
exploration? Because the production that's coming onstream now and the | :08:00. | :08:01. | |
that's coming onstream now and the that's coming onstream now and the | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
production that has been invested production that has been invested | :08:03. | :08:04. | |
production that has been invested in now is a more expensive | :08:04. | :08:05. | |
in now is a more expensive in now is a more expensive | :08:05. | :08:06. | |
investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive | :08:06. | :08:07. | |
investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
oil to take out of the North Sea, oil to take out of the North Sea, | :08:09. | :08:10. | |
oil to take out of the North Sea, and we've got a more expensive | :08:11. | :08:12. | |
and we've got a more expensive and we've got a more expensive | :08:12. | :08:13. | |
maintenance programme that needs to maintenance programme that needs to | :08:14. | :08:15. | |
maintenance programme that needs to be funded from revenues, so the | :08:15. | :08:16. | |
be funded from revenues, so the be funded from revenues, so the | :08:16. | :08:17. | |
revenue we have generated that's revenue we have generated that's | :08:17. | :08:18. | |
revenue we have generated that's taxable will be reduced as a | :08:18. | :08:19. | |
taxable will be reduced as a taxable will be reduced as a | :08:19. | :08:20. | |
taxable will be reduced as a consequence of that. But what I - | :08:20. | :08:22. | |
consequence of that. But what I - consequence of that. But what I - | :08:22. | :08:22. | |
obviously the John Swinney document obviously the John Swinney document | :08:22. | :08:23. | |
obviously the John Swinney document was referring to the OBR figures | :08:24. | :08:25. | |
was referring to the OBR figures was referring to the OBR figures | :08:25. | :08:26. | |
was referring to the OBR figures from the budget, but the OBR then | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
from the budget, but the OBR then from the budget, but the OBR then | :08:28. | :08:29. | |
produced more figures in December produced more figures in December | :08:29. | :08:30. | |
produced more figures in December with the autumn statement. Yes. | :08:30. | :08:31. | |
with the autumn statement. Yes. with the autumn statement. Yes. | :08:31. | :08:32. | |
They actually forecast for most They actually forecast for most | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
They actually forecast for most years, not all - actually, they | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
years, not all - actually, they have downgraded their expectations | :08:36. | :08:37. | |
have downgraded their expectations have downgraded their expectations | :08:37. | :08:39. | |
have downgraded their expectations of tax receipts from oil, so one | :08:39. | :08:40. | |
of tax receipts from oil, so one of tax receipts from oil, so one | :08:40. | :08:40. | |
presumes John Swinney would accept presumes John Swinney would accept | :08:41. | :08:42. | |
presumes John Swinney would accept that as well, but what you're | :08:42. | :08:43. | |
that as well, but what you're that as well, but what you're | :08:43. | :08:45. | |
saying is that could be compatible saying is that could be compatible | :08:45. | :08:47. | |
saying is that could be compatible with a spike upwards in | :08:47. | :08:49. | |
with a spike upwards in production... Absolutely. For the | :08:49. | :08:50. | |
production... Absolutely. For the reasons you have outlined. | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
reasons you have outlined. reasons you have outlined. | :08:54. | :08:55. | |
Absolutely, yes. OK. The other Absolutely, yes. OK. The other | :08:55. | :08:56. | |
Absolutely, yes. OK. The other thing that's obviously been picked | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
thing that's obviously been picked thing that's obviously been picked | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
thing that's obviously been picked up on this is a fairly explicit | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
up on this is a fairly explicit recommendation - recognition by | :09:02. | :09:03. | |
recommendation - recognition by recommendation - recognition by | :09:03. | :09:04. | |
John Swinney in this document that John Swinney in this document that | :09:04. | :09:05. | |
John Swinney in this document that the problem Scotland has with an | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
the problem Scotland has with an the problem Scotland has with an | :09:07. | :09:08. | |
ageing population will be there ageing population will be there | :09:08. | :09:09. | |
ageing population will be there even in an independent Scotland to | :09:09. | :09:10. | |
even in an independent Scotland to even in an independent Scotland to | :09:10. | :09:11. | |
even in an independent Scotland to the extent that he appears to be | :09:11. | :09:12. | |
the extent that he appears to be the extent that he appears to be | :09:12. | :09:13. | |
suggesting they might have to suggesting they might have to | :09:13. | :09:14. | |
suggesting they might have to contemplate cuts in public spending | :09:14. | :09:16. | |
contemplate cuts in public spending contemplate cuts in public spending | :09:16. | :09:17. | |
contemplate cuts in public spending or even cuts in pensions. If we | :09:17. | :09:17. | |
or even cuts in pensions. If we or even cuts in pensions. If we | :09:18. | :09:18. | |
have a fiscal deficit, which is have a fiscal deficit, which is | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
have a fiscal deficit, which is what these numbers are showing and | :09:20. | :09:21. | |
what these numbers are showing and what these numbers are showing and | :09:21. | :09:22. | |
what these numbers are showing and we can't see how we're going to | :09:22. | :09:23. | |
we can't see how we're going to we can't see how we're going to | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
increase the tax take or the increase the tax take or the | :09:25. | :09:26. | |
increase the tax take or the assumption is we're not likely to | :09:26. | :09:27. | |
assumption is we're not likely to assumption is we're not likely to | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
increase taxes to increase the tax increase taxes to increase the tax | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
increase taxes to increase the tax take, then any additional demand | :09:30. | :09:31. | |
take, then any additional demand take, then any additional demand | :09:31. | :09:32. | |
take, then any additional demand coming through has to be met from | :09:32. | :09:34. | |
coming through has to be met from coming through has to be met from | :09:34. | :09:35. | |
coming through has to be met from that fixed cake, and if we haven't | :09:35. | :09:35. | |
that fixed cake, and if we haven't that fixed cake, and if we haven't | :09:36. | :09:36. | |
got the Department for Work and got the Department for Work and | :09:36. | :09:37. | |
got the Department for Work and Pensions or the Treasury supporting | :09:37. | :09:38. | |
Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting | :09:38. | :09:39. | |
Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting | :09:39. | :09:40. | |
that, then it has to come out of a that, then it has to come out of a | :09:40. | :09:41. | |
that, then it has to come out of a fixed budget. Therefore it's likely | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
fixed budget. Therefore it's likely fixed budget. Therefore it's likely | :09:43. | :09:43. | |
fixed budget. Therefore it's likely other services might have to be cut | :09:44. | :09:45. | |
other services might have to be cut other services might have to be cut | :09:45. | :09:46. | |
to accommodate. We have a problem to accommodate. We have a problem | :09:46. | :09:47. | |
to accommodate. We have a problem with an ageing population compared | :09:48. | :09:49. | |
with an ageing population compared with an ageing population compared | :09:49. | :09:49. | |
with an ageing population compared to... We have marginally more of a | :09:49. | :09:50. | |
to... We have marginally more of a to... We have marginally more of a | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
to... We have marginally more of a problem in Scotland than in the UK | :09:51. | :09:52. | |
problem in Scotland than in the UK problem in Scotland than in the UK | :09:52. | :09:52. | |
problem in Scotland than in the UK at the moment, but I think it's | :09:52. | :09:54. | |
at the moment, but I think it's at the moment, but I think it's | :09:54. | :09:55. | |
important to reflect on the fact important to reflect on the fact | :09:55. | :09:56. | |
important to reflect on the fact that the document is a document | :09:56. | :09:58. | |
that the document is a document that the document is a document | :09:58. | :09:59. | |
that talks about, you know, the that talks about, you know, the | :09:59. | :10:00. | |
that talks about, you know, the current fiscal regime. It doesn't | :10:00. | :10:02. | |
current fiscal regime. It doesn't current fiscal regime. It doesn't | :10:02. | :10:02. | |
talk about the leavers that the talk about the leavers that the | :10:03. | :10:03. | |
talk about the leavers that the Scottish Government might have, and | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
Scottish Government might have, and Scottish Government might have, and | :10:06. | :10:07. | |
in fact, the leaked document itself in fact, the leaked document itself | :10:07. | :10:08. | |
in fact, the leaked document itself doesn't allude to any additional | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
doesn't allude to any additional doesn't allude to any additional | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
powers being used to generate a powers being used to generate a | :10:12. | :10:13. | |
significant additional growth or significant additional growth or | :10:13. | :10:14. | |
significant additional growth or significant additional growth or | :10:14. | :10:15. | |
indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have | :10:15. | :10:16. | |
indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have | :10:16. | :10:18. | |
to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds | :10:18. | :10:18. | |
to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds | :10:18. | :10:20. | |
that this is a very static picture that this is a very static picture | :10:20. | :10:21. | |
that this is a very static picture of the current spending... That | :10:21. | :10:22. | |
of the current spending... That of the current spending... That | :10:22. | :10:23. | |
slightly surprised me. What would slightly surprised me. What would | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
slightly surprised me. What would you suggest would be available to | :10:25. | :10:27. | |
you suggest would be available to you suggest would be available to | :10:27. | :10:28. | |
them because we don't really have them because we don't really have | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
them because we don't really have any specific proposals, do we? | :10:30. | :10:31. | |
any specific proposals, do we? any specific proposals, do we? | :10:31. | :10:32. | |
don't, but the document itself don't, but the document itself | :10:32. | :10:33. | |
don't, but the document itself doesn't talk about scenarios which | :10:33. | :10:34. | |
doesn't talk about scenarios which suggest let's fundamentally change | :10:34. | :10:35. | |
suggest let's fundamentally change suggest let's fundamentally change | :10:35. | :10:36. | |
suggest let's fundamentally change - and use leavers in a different | :10:36. | :10:37. | |
- and use leavers in a different - and use leavers in a different | :10:37. | :10:38. | |
way. It suggests we're going to way. It suggests we're going to | :10:38. | :10:40. | |
way. It suggests we're going to continue to use the leavers as | :10:40. | :10:41. | |
continue to use the leavers as continue to use the leavers as | :10:41. | :10:43. | |
they're currently being used. they're currently being used. | :10:43. | :10:44. | |
they're currently being used. think there are options. | :10:44. | :10:45. | |
think there are options. Scottish Government themselves talk | :10:45. | :10:46. | |
Scottish Government themselves talk Scottish Government themselves talk | :10:47. | :10:48. | |
about options. They talk about about options. They talk about | :10:48. | :10:49. | |
about options. They talk about about options. They talk about | :10:49. | :10:50. | |
using the fiscal powers in a way using the fiscal powers in a way | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
using the fiscal powers in a way that would to either use lower | :10:53. | :10:55. | |
that would to either use lower corporation taxes or encouraging | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
corporation taxes or encouraging investment in Scotland, generate | :10:58. | :10:59. | |
investment in Scotland, generate additional growth, additional | :10:59. | :11:00. | |
additional growth, additional additional growth, additional | :11:00. | :11:01. | |
employment. None of that is employment. None of that is | :11:01. | :11:01. | |
employment. None of that is discussed in the document. Whether | :11:02. | :11:02. | |
discussed in the document. Whether discussed in the document. Whether | :11:03. | :11:04. | |
discussed in the document. Whether the document is a full document and | :11:04. | :11:05. | |
the document is a full document and the document is a full document and | :11:05. | :11:06. | |
whether that's discussed in another whether that's discussed in another | :11:06. | :11:08. | |
whether that's discussed in another part of the document is difficult | :11:08. | :11:09. | |
part of the document is difficult part of the document is difficult | :11:09. | :11:10. | |
part of the document is difficult to tell. Right. OK. Thank you very | :11:10. | :11:11. | |
much. much. | :11:11. | :11:12. | |
much. I'm joined now from Edinburgh by | :11:12. | :11:13. | |
I'm joined now from Edinburgh by I'm joined now from Edinburgh by | :11:13. | :11:13. | |
the local Government Minister Derek the local Government Minister Derek | :11:13. | :11:14. | |
the local Government Minister Derek Mackay and here in Glasgow by | :11:14. | :11:15. | |
Mackay and here in Glasgow by Labour's finance spokesman, Ken | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
Macintosh. Macintosh. | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
Macintosh. Macintosh. | :11:21. | :11:22. | |
What do you make of this, Derek What do you make of this, Derek | :11:22. | :11:22. | |
What do you make of this, Derek Mackay, that John Swinney himself | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
Mackay, that John Swinney himself Mackay, that John Swinney himself | :11:24. | :11:25. | |
seems to be suggesting that an seems to be suggesting that an | :11:25. | :11:26. | |
seems to be suggesting that an independent Scotland by 2016 would | :11:26. | :11:27. | |
independent Scotland by 2016 would independent Scotland by 2016 would | :11:27. | :11:28. | |
independent Scotland by 2016 would have a larger budget deficit as a | :11:28. | :11:30. | |
have a larger budget deficit as a have a larger budget deficit as a | :11:30. | :11:31. | |
have a larger budget deficit as a proportion of GDP than the UK? | :11:31. | :11:32. | |
proportion of GDP than the UK? proportion of GDP than the UK? | :11:32. | :11:34. | |
I think that the analysis shows I think that the analysis shows | :11:34. | :11:35. | |
I think that the analysis shows that Scotland's fiscal strength is | :11:35. | :11:36. | |
that Scotland's fiscal strength is that Scotland's fiscal strength is | :11:36. | :11:37. | |
actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms | :11:38. | :11:38. | |
actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms | :11:38. | :11:39. | |
than the rest of the United Kingdom, than the rest of the United Kingdom, | :11:39. | :11:40. | |
than the rest of the United Kingdom, and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am | :11:40. | :11:42. | |
and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
talking about this document. It talking about this document. It | :11:45. | :11:46. | |
talking about this document. It shows that by 2016-'17 although | :11:46. | :11:48. | |
shows that by 2016-'17 although shows that by 2016-'17 although | :11:48. | :11:50. | |
shows that by 2016-'17 although both the UK and Scotland have lower | :11:50. | :11:51. | |
both the UK and Scotland have lower both the UK and Scotland have lower | :11:51. | :11:52. | |
deficits because the economy is deficits because the economy is | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
allegedly getting better, actually, allegedly getting better, actually, | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
allegedly getting better, actually, the turnaround is that in 2016-'17 | :11:58. | :11:59. | |
the turnaround is that in 2016-'17 the turnaround is that in 2016-'17 | :11:59. | :12:00. | |
and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit | :12:00. | :12:01. | |
and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit | :12:01. | :12:01. | |
in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in | :12:01. | :12:02. | |
in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a | :12:04. | :12:05. | |
the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
point in time based on the OBR point in time based on the OBR | :12:07. | :12:07. | |
predictions, and certainly there predictions, and certainly there | :12:07. | :12:08. | |
predictions, and certainly there has been great deal of movement | :12:08. | :12:10. | |
has been great deal of movement has been great deal of movement | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
since then. Yes, the OBR have since then. Yes, the OBR have | :12:12. | :12:13. | |
downgraded their projections for downgraded their projections for | :12:13. | :12:14. | |
downgraded their projections for oil revenues. The in temples of | :12:15. | :12:16. | |
oil revenues. The in temples of oil revenues. The in temples of | :12:16. | :12:17. | |
economic growth, that's a separate economic growth, that's a separate | :12:17. | :12:19. | |
matter, specifically about oil. matter, specifically about oil. | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
matter, specifically about oil. This is an important point, how | :12:21. | :12:22. | |
This is an important point, how Scotland's fiscal position has | :12:22. | :12:23. | |
Scotland's fiscal position has Scotland's fiscal position has | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
Scotland's fiscal position has moved on since that pay. There is | :12:25. | :12:26. | |
moved on since that pay. There is actually over �3 billion | :12:26. | :12:27. | |
actually over �3 billion contributed to Scotland's economy | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
contributed to Scotland's economy contributed to Scotland's economy | :12:29. | :12:29. | |
contributed to Scotland's economy in terms of that figure because oil | :12:29. | :12:31. | |
in terms of that figure because oil in terms of that figure because oil | :12:31. | :12:32. | |
prices are higher than they prices are higher than they | :12:32. | :12:33. | |
prices are higher than they prices are higher than they | :12:33. | :12:34. | |
predicted - I think around $95 a predicted - I think around $95 a | :12:35. | :12:36. | |
predicted - I think around $95 a barrel. The current price is about | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
barrel. The current price is about barrel. The current price is about | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
$115 a barrel. In a separate $115 a barrel. In a separate | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
$115 a barrel. In a separate Government department in the UK, | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
Government department in the UK, Government department in the UK, | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
Government department in the UK, has forecast it to go to $132 a | :12:45. | :12:46. | |
has forecast it to go to $132 a has forecast it to go to $132 a | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
barrel. That is the first barrel. That is the first | :12:48. | :12:49. | |
barrel. That is the first substantial shift since that report. | :12:49. | :12:49. | |
substantial shift since that report. substantial shift since that report. | :12:49. | :12:50. | |
substantial shift since that report. It was produced - it put Scotland | :12:50. | :12:51. | |
It was produced - it put Scotland It was produced - it put Scotland | :12:51. | :12:52. | |
in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial | :12:54. | :12:55. | |
position. So you don't know - sorry. position. So you don't know - sorry. | :12:55. | :12:56. | |
position. So you don't know - sorry. Hang on. John Swinney says quite | :12:56. | :12:58. | |
Hang on. John Swinney says quite Hang on. John Swinney says quite | :12:58. | :12:58. | |
explicitly he accepts the OBR explicitly he accepts the OBR | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
forecast for oil production forecast for oil production | :13:01. | :13:02. | |
forecast for oil production revenues. You're now sayIng you | :13:02. | :13:03. | |
revenues. You're now sayIng you revenues. You're now sayIng you | :13:03. | :13:04. | |
don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was | :13:04. | :13:05. | |
don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was | :13:05. | :13:05. | |
forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time. | :13:05. | :13:06. | |
forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time. | :13:07. | :13:07. | |
forecast at that point in time. no. I have just read out to you the | :13:07. | :13:08. | |
no. I have just read out to you the no. I have just read out to you the | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
figures in December where the OBR figures in December where the OBR | :13:11. | :13:12. | |
figures in December where the OBR are forecasting even lower revenue | :13:12. | :13:12. | |
are forecasting even lower revenue are forecasting even lower revenue | :13:13. | :13:14. | |
than Swinney was taking when he than Swinney was taking when he | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
than Swinney was taking when he wrote his document in March. | :13:16. | :13:17. | |
wrote his document in March. wrote his document in March. | :13:17. | :13:18. | |
Reality is in the current position, Reality is in the current position, | :13:18. | :13:20. | |
Reality is in the current position, �3 billion more is generated | :13:20. | :13:21. | |
�3 billion more is generated �3 billion more is generated | :13:21. | :13:22. | |
through the actual figures than through the actual figures than | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
through the actual figures than forecast - the OBR produced... | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
forecast - the OBR produced... forecast - the OBR produced... | :13:26. | :13:26. | |
enough. When that document was enough. When that document was | :13:26. | :13:27. | |
enough. When that document was published over a year ago. The | :13:27. | :13:29. | |
published over a year ago. The published over a year ago. The | :13:29. | :13:31. | |
published over a year ago. The debate has moved on. The debate has | :13:31. | :13:32. | |
debate has moved on. The debate has debate has moved on. The debate has | :13:32. | :13:33. | |
moved on! Which shows Scotland is moved on! Which shows Scotland is | :13:33. | :13:43. | |
:13:43. | :13:50. | ||
moved on! Which shows Scotland is I actually thought that the one | :13:50. | :13:51. | |
I actually thought that the one I actually thought that the one | :13:51. | :13:52. | |
I actually thought that the one benefit of this document is that it | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
benefit of this document is that it benefit of this document is that it | :13:54. | :13:55. | |
reveals the difference between the reveals the difference between the | :13:55. | :13:56. | |
private utterances and public private utterances and public | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
private utterances and public debate that we are having about | :13:58. | :13:59. | |
debate that we are having about debate that we are having about | :13:59. | :14:01. | |
Scotland's future. The truth is Scotland's future. The truth is | :14:01. | :14:03. | |
Scotland's future. The truth is revealed in this document. At least | :14:03. | :14:04. | |
revealed in this document. At least revealed in this document. At least | :14:05. | :14:05. | |
revealed in this document. At least we will get some honesty in the | :14:05. | :14:07. | |
we will get some honesty in the we will get some honesty in the | :14:07. | :14:09. | |
debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But | :14:09. | :14:10. | |
debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But | :14:10. | :14:12. | |
clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a | :14:12. | :14:13. | |
clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a | :14:13. | :14:15. | |
vain hope. On the other side of vain hope. On the other side of | :14:15. | :14:16. | |
vain hope. On the other side of this, of course they are being | :14:16. | :14:18. | |
this, of course they are being realistic, but an independent | :14:18. | :14:19. | |
realistic, but an independent realistic, but an independent | :14:20. | :14:21. | |
Scotland would be a perfectly Scotland would be a perfectly | :14:21. | :14:22. | |
Scotland would be a perfectly viable economy according to this | :14:22. | :14:24. | |
viable economy according to this viable economy according to this | :14:24. | :14:24. | |
leaked document. And as Jo leaked document. And as Jo | :14:24. | :14:26. | |
leaked document. And as Jo Armstrong was pointing out earlier, | :14:26. | :14:27. | |
Armstrong was pointing out earlier, Armstrong was pointing out earlier, | :14:27. | :14:28. | |
Armstrong was pointing out earlier, it does not talk about the things | :14:28. | :14:29. | |
it does not talk about the things it does not talk about the things | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
do to try to help the economy. do to try to help the economy. | :14:38. | :14:39. | |
do to try to help the economy. trouble with this document is that | :14:39. | :14:41. | |
trouble with this document is that trouble with this document is that | :14:41. | :14:43. | |
independence is not the magic independence is not the magic | :14:43. | :14:44. | |
independence is not the magic bullet. The SNP government keep | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
bullet. The SNP government keep deferring decisions and saying | :14:48. | :14:49. | |
deferring decisions and saying deferring decisions and saying | :14:49. | :14:50. | |
deferring decisions and saying everything will be all right if we | :14:51. | :14:52. | |
everything will be all right if we everything will be all right if we | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
vote Yes in the referendum next vote Yes in the referendum next | :14:54. | :14:55. | |
vote Yes in the referendum next year. We will have full fiscal | :14:55. | :14:56. | |
year. We will have full fiscal year. We will have full fiscal | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
powers. They imply that we will powers. They imply that we will | :14:58. | :14:59. | |
powers. They imply that we will have higher benefits and lower | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
have higher benefits and lower have higher benefits and lower | :15:02. | :15:03. | |
taxes. That is very implausible and taxes. That is very implausible and | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
taxes. That is very implausible and they don't believe it themselves. | :15:06. | :15:08. | |
they don't believe it themselves. they don't believe it themselves. | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
That is absolutely not the case. That is absolutely not the case. | :15:09. | :15:15. | |
That is absolutely not the case. Even on the worst case scenario, | :15:15. | :15:16. | |
Even on the worst case scenario, Even on the worst case scenario, | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
Even on the worst case scenario, Scotland would be in a surplus of | :15:18. | :15:20. | |
Scotland would be in a surplus of Scotland would be in a surplus of | :15:20. | :15:21. | |
Scotland would be in a surplus of some �16 billion by 2016 on the | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
some �16 billion by 2016 on the most conservative forecast. | :15:25. | :15:26. | |
most conservative forecast. most conservative forecast. | :15:26. | :15:27. | |
Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would | :15:27. | :15:29. | |
Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would | :15:29. | :15:30. | |
be better off to the tune of �4 be better off to the tune of �4 | :15:30. | :15:32. | |
be better off to the tune of �4 billion and one financial year. Per | :15:32. | :15:34. | |
billion and one financial year. Per billion and one financial year. Per | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
head of population and that is head of population and that is | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
head of population and that is head of population and that is | :15:39. | :15:40. | |
quite a lot. If you don't accept quite a lot. If you don't accept | :15:40. | :15:41. | |
quite a lot. If you don't accept the figures for oil revenues that | :15:41. | :15:43. | |
the figures for oil revenues that the figures for oil revenues that | :15:43. | :15:43. | |
the figures for oil revenues that will publish by the a BR, despite | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
will publish by the a BR, despite will publish by the a BR, despite | :15:46. | :15:47. | |
will publish by the a BR, despite the fact that John Swinney says he | :15:48. | :15:54. | |
the fact that John Swinney says he the fact that John Swinney says he | :15:54. | :16:01. | |
the fact that John Swinney says he does accept them.... Pat -- that is | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
does accept them.... Pat -- that is does accept them.... Pat -- that is | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting | :16:10. | :16:11. | |
that that a decline in oil price of that that a decline in oil price of | :16:11. | :16:12. | |
that that a decline in oil price of �4.5 billion, what figures do you | :16:13. | :16:13. | |
�4.5 billion, what figures do you �4.5 billion, what figures do you | :16:14. | :16:14. | |
�4.5 billion, what figures do you have it as a projection that you | :16:14. | :16:15. | |
have it as a projection that you have it as a projection that you | :16:15. | :16:16. | |
the Scottish government are using, the Scottish government are using, | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
the Scottish government are using, that a different? We will be | :16:19. | :16:21. | |
that a different? We will be producing more financial | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
producing more financial producing more financial | :16:25. | :16:26. | |
information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this | :16:26. | :16:27. | |
information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this | :16:27. | :16:27. | |
clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a | :16:27. | :16:28. | |
clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a | :16:28. | :16:29. | |
matter of fact that you never -- matter of fact that you never -- | :16:29. | :16:31. | |
matter of fact that you never -- that you no longer accept the | :16:31. | :16:32. | |
that you no longer accept the that you no longer accept the | :16:32. | :16:33. | |
that you no longer accept the though BR figures and you have a | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
though BR figures and you have a though BR figures and you have a | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
though BR figures and you have a new set of figures of all revenue | :16:39. | :16:41. | |
new set of figures of all revenue new set of figures of all revenue | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
predictions -- of oil revenue predictions -- of oil revenue | :16:44. | :16:45. | |
predictions -- of oil revenue predictions? You keep reading out | :16:45. | :16:46. | |
predictions? You keep reading out predictions? You keep reading out | :16:46. | :16:48. | |
predictions? You keep reading out an old set of figures. This is from | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
an old set of figures. This is from an old set of figures. This is from | :16:51. | :16:52. | |
December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast | :16:56. | :16:57. | |
is up by �3 billion. We know all is up by �3 billion. We know all | :16:57. | :16:59. | |
is up by �3 billion. We know all prices are volatile, they say there | :16:59. | :17:00. | |
prices are volatile, they say there prices are volatile, they say there | :17:00. | :17:02. | |
prices are volatile, they say there will be a decline. I am asking if | :17:02. | :17:04. | |
will be a decline. I am asking if will be a decline. I am asking if | :17:04. | :17:05. | |
you have different figures. you have different figures. | :17:05. | :17:06. | |
you have different figures. figures be published today show | :17:06. | :17:07. | |
figures be published today show figures be published today show | :17:07. | :17:08. | |
figures be published today show that for every man woman and child | :17:08. | :17:10. | |
that for every man woman and child that for every man woman and child | :17:10. | :17:12. | |
in Scotland, they would be many in Scotland, they would be many | :17:12. | :17:13. | |
in Scotland, they would be many pounds better off. The that is | :17:13. | :17:15. | |
pounds better off. The that is completely different. There are | :17:15. | :17:17. | |
completely different. There are completely different. There are | :17:17. | :17:22. | |
other assumptions from that Cabinet other assumptions from that Cabinet | :17:22. | :17:22. | |
other assumptions from that Cabinet paper. There are assumptions on | :17:22. | :17:24. | |
paper. There are assumptions on defence. The assignation to | :17:24. | :17:27. | |
defence. The assignation to defence. The assignation to | :17:27. | :17:29. | |
expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 | :17:29. | :17:30. | |
expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 million, and that will expenditure | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
million, and that will expenditure million, and that will expenditure | :17:34. | :17:34. | |
million, and that will expenditure is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and | :17:34. | :17:36. | |
is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and | :17:36. | :17:37. | |
actual expenditure is �2 billion. actual expenditure is �2 billion. | :17:37. | :17:39. | |
actual expenditure is �2 billion. That is quite different. That shows | :17:39. | :17:41. | |
That is quite different. That shows That is quite different. That shows | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
a room for manoeuvre and financial a room for manoeuvre and financial | :17:44. | :17:45. | |
flexibility. The UK Government's flexibility. The UK Government's | :17:45. | :17:50. | |
flexibility. The UK Government's figures show that Scotland more | :17:50. | :18:00. | |
:18:00. | :18:02. | ||
figures show that Scotland more He talks about the volatility of | :18:02. | :18:06. | |
He talks about the volatility of He talks about the volatility of | :18:06. | :18:10. | |
oil prices and the a sustainability oil prices and the a sustainability | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
oil prices and the a sustainability of a depleting resources. He talks | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
of a depleting resources. He talks of a depleting resources. He talks | :18:16. | :18:18. | |
about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions | :18:18. | :18:19. | |
about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions | :18:19. | :18:20. | |
and spending. I will give you a and spending. I will give you a | :18:20. | :18:22. | |
and spending. I will give you a figure. Scotland in terms of | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
figure. Scotland in terms of figure. Scotland in terms of | :18:24. | :18:26. | |
wholesale value of oil can extract wholesale value of oil can extract | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
wholesale value of oil can extract another 1.5 trillion pounds of | :18:28. | :18:28. | |
another 1.5 trillion pounds of another 1.5 trillion pounds of | :18:28. | :18:29. | |
another 1.5 trillion pounds of revenue from oil and gas. What a | :18:29. | :18:33. | |
revenue from oil and gas. What a revenue from oil and gas. What a | :18:33. | :18:34. | |
terrible weapon the -- have terrible weapon the -- have | :18:34. | :18:35. | |
terrible weapon the -- have terrible for his country to be | :18:35. | :18:36. | |
terrible for his country to be blessed with those natural | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
blessed with those natural blessed with those natural | :18:39. | :18:40. | |
resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
all. Isn't it time that we had a all. Isn't it time that we had a | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
all. Isn't it time that we had a government who did not spend oil | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
government who did not spend oil government who did not spend oil | :18:49. | :18:50. | |
three times over, and got the three times over, and got the | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
three times over, and got the economy going again. Hang on Derek | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
economy going again. Hang on Derek economy going again. Hang on Derek | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
Mackay, you would at least accept, Mackay, you would at least accept, | :19:00. | :19:01. | |
Mackay, you would at least accept, let show you some of tomorrow's | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
let show you some of tomorrow's let show you some of tomorrow's | :19:04. | :19:05. | |
papers. The Scottish Daily Mail papers. The Scottish Daily Mail | :19:05. | :19:08. | |
front page headline, sleepwalking front page headline, sleepwalking | :19:08. | :19:09. | |
front page headline, sleepwalking to disaster. The explosive least | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
to disaster. The explosive least to disaster. The explosive least | :19:11. | :19:12. | |
SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the | :19:12. | :19:13. | |
SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the | :19:13. | :19:14. | |
party has known for years about the party has known for years about the | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
party has known for years about the huge problems facing Scotland. The | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
huge problems facing Scotland. The huge problems facing Scotland. The | :19:20. | :19:21. | |
Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to | :19:21. | :19:23. | |
Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to | :19:23. | :19:24. | |
cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can | :19:24. | :19:26. | |
cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can | :19:26. | :19:27. | |
hardly spin this as good news? hardly spin this as good news? | :19:27. | :19:28. | |
hardly spin this as good news? wouldn't rely on those headlines in | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
wouldn't rely on those headlines in wouldn't rely on those headlines in | :19:30. | :19:31. | |
this instance. We are not proposing this instance. We are not proposing | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
this instance. We are not proposing to cut spending. If you take | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
to cut spending. If you take to cut spending. If you take | :19:35. | :19:35. | |
defence fallen example, we are defence fallen example, we are | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
defence fallen example, we are planning to spend more. The | :19:38. | :19:39. | |
planning to spend more. The planning to spend more. The | :19:39. | :19:40. | |
planning to spend more. The certainty we have from the UK is | :19:40. | :19:41. | |
certainty we have from the UK is certainty we have from the UK is | :19:41. | :19:42. | |
that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending. | :19:42. | :19:43. | |
that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending. | :19:43. | :19:44. | |
That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing | :19:44. | :19:45. | |
That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing | :19:45. | :19:45. | |
and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue | :19:49. | :19:50. | |
with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's | :19:55. | :19:55. | |
leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s.... | :19:56. | :19:56. | |
leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s.... | :19:56. | :20:01. | |
want to change the subject for a want to change the subject for a | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
moment. Douglas Alexander talked moment. Douglas Alexander talked | :20:03. | :20:03. | |
moment. Douglas Alexander talked about having a national convention | :20:03. | :20:05. | |
about having a national convention about having a national convention | :20:05. | :20:06. | |
about having a national convention if the people voted no, to vote | :20:06. | :20:07. | |
if the people voted no, to vote if the people voted no, to vote | :20:07. | :20:08. | |
if the people voted no, to vote what all the parties can agree on | :20:08. | :20:09. | |
what all the parties can agree on what all the parties can agree on | :20:09. | :20:10. | |
what all the parties can agree on for the future of Scotland. I am | :20:10. | :20:12. | |
for the future of Scotland. I am for the future of Scotland. I am | :20:12. | :20:13. | |
curious as to whether the Scottish curious as to whether the Scottish | :20:13. | :20:14. | |
curious as to whether the Scottish Labour Party would agree with that | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
Labour Party would agree with that Labour Party would agree with that | :20:16. | :20:17. | |
Labour Party would agree with that proposal? It is one that we will | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
proposal? It is one that we will certainly discuss. Instead of | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
certainly discuss. Instead of certainly discuss. Instead of | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
having this discussion.... You are having this discussion.... You are | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
having this discussion.... You are planning now. We should talk | :20:32. | :20:33. | |
planning now. We should talk through what devolution is. | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
through what devolution is. through what devolution is. | :20:35. | :20:37. | |
Devolution is here to stay. Would Devolution is here to stay. Would | :20:37. | :20:38. | |
Devolution is here to stay. Would you support a national convention? | :20:39. | :20:40. | |
you support a national convention? you support a national convention? | :20:40. | :20:42. | |
you support a national convention? I'm not that against the idea. | :20:43. | :20:44. | |
I'm not that against the idea. I'm not that against the idea. | :20:44. | :20:46. | |
you think there are Scottish issues you think there are Scottish issues | :20:46. | :20:47. | |
you think there are Scottish issues which are not just between Labour | :20:47. | :20:50. | |
which are not just between Labour which are not just between Labour | :20:50. | :20:51. | |
and the other parties? Because it and the other parties? Because it | :20:51. | :20:52. | |
and the other parties? Because it is specifically supposed to be | :20:52. | :20:54. | |
is specifically supposed to be is specifically supposed to be | :20:54. | :20:55. | |
about other things in the about other things in the | :20:55. | :20:57. | |
about other things in the constitution. I do not agree with | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
constitution. I do not agree with that interpretation. Devolution can | :21:00. | :21:01. | |
that interpretation. Devolution can that interpretation. Devolution can | :21:01. | :21:02. | |
deliver for the people of Scotland. deliver for the people of Scotland. | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
We don't need independence. We don't need independence. | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
Devolution can deliver independent Devolution can deliver independent | :21:10. | :21:12. |